BY THE SAKER
One of the most frustrating tasks is to try to debunk the Hollywood myths imprinted on the mind of Americans about warfare in general and about special forces and technology in particular. When last week I wrote my column about the first SNAFUs of the Trump Presidency I pretty much expected that some of the points I made would fall on deaf ears and that indeed did happen. What I propose to do today is to try, yet again, to explain the vast difference between what I would call “the American way of war” as seen in propaganda movies and the reality of warfare.
Let’s begin by the issue of the use of special operation forces and immediately say what they are not: special operation forces are not SWAT or anti-terrorist forces. The US propaganda machine has imprinted on the mind of people in the West that if a force is “elite” and looks “tacti-cool” it is some kind of special force. By that criteria, even some riot cops could be considered as “special forces”. This is, by the way, not only an American sin. The Russians have gone down the exact same ridiculous road and now you have “spetsnaz” forces all over Russia – even the Russian equivalent of the US Department of Corrections which now has “spetsnaz” forces to deal with prison riots! Likewise, the famous anti-terrorist unit “A” (mistakenly called “Alpha” as opposed to the US “Delta”) is exactly that – an anti-terrorist unit and not a military special force. So what are, stricto sensu, special forces? They are a military force which participates in the overall war effort but autonomously and not in direct support of the main/conventional fighting force. Depending on the country and service, special forces can deal with a variety to tasks ranging from providing “advisors” to what Americans call direct action operations such as the recent ill-fated attack on the al-Qaeda compound in Yemen. Just like airborne forces, special forces have often been misused, especially when conventional forces could not be counted on, but that does not mean that SWAT and anti-terrorist forces should be thought of as “special forces”. Special forces are always military forces and they operate in support of military operations.
[Main image above : Two members of US 19th Group Special Forces Soldiers in Babil Province, Iraq, 2009.]
SIDEBAR
[dropcap]S[/dropcap]ome American readers who where miffed by my assertions that US special forces have a terrible real-life record have tried to counter with a logically fallacious argument: what about Russian special forces, are they any better? Examples given were Beslan, Nord-Ost and Budennovsk. There are two problems with this argument: one, none of these events can be considered as “special operations” and, two, even if the Russian special forces have a terrible record, this hardly means that the US special forces’ record is good or, even less so, better.
US special forces.
END OF SIDEBAR
Russian special forces.
If one is absolutely determined to assess the Russian record on special operations I would point to the capture of the Ruzyne International Airport in Prague in 1968, the storming of the Tajbeg Palace in Afghanistan in 1979 and, of course, the Russian operation to seize Crimea in 2014. But, again, there is no logical need to prove that Russian can do it well/better to assert that Americans can’t.
Now let’s turn to the issue of a possible war between Iran and the United States.
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he dumbest possible thing to evaluate the possible outcomes of a US attack on Iran would be to compare all the technologies available to both countries and come to some kind of conclusion. For an example of that kind of nonsense, check out this typical article. Generally, the obsession with technology is a typical American pathology which is a direct result of fighting overseas wars against vastly out-gunned enemies. I call that the engineer’s view of war, as opposed to the soldier’s view. That is not to say that technology does not matter, it does, but tactics, operations and strategy matter a whole lot more. For example, while it is true that a modern M1A2 Abrams is vastly superior to an old Soviet T-55, there are circumstances (high mountains, forests) where the T-55, properly engaged, could be a much better tank. Likewise, putatively outdated WWII anti-tank guns can be used with devastating effect on modern APC just as outdated air defense guns can by turned into absolutely terrifying assault fire support vehicles.In the case of the US attack on Iran, only a total ignoramus would suppose that as soon as the Iranians detect the US attack they would scramble their mostly dated air force to try to achieve air superiority or that they would hope to stop the US attack using their air-defenses. Let me remind everybody here that Hezbollah made exactly zero use of their air defenses (only MANPADS anyway) during the Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2006 and that did not prevent Hezbollah from inflicting upon the IDF the most crushing defeat in their history. Why?
(Apr. 9, 2003) — USS Donald Cook (DDG 75), the first surface vessel to fire Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM’s) in support of Operation Iraqi Freedom, conducting underway operations.
Because generally the American way of war doesn’t really work. What do I mean by “American way of war”? Using airstrikes and missile attacks to degrade the enemy’s capabilities to such a degree that it forces him to surrender. This was tried against the Serbian military in Kosovo and resulted in an abject failure: the Serbian forces survived the 78 days of massive NATO bombing completely unscathed (a few MBTs and APCs were lost, that’s about it). When that failure became apparent to the NATO commanders they did what the US military always does and turned against the civilian Serbian population in retaliation (same as the Israelis in Lebanon, of course) while offering Milosevic a deal: you surrender and we leave you in power. He accepted and ordered the Serbian military out of Kosovo. This was a spectacular political success for NATO, but in purely military terms, this was a disaster (well-concealed from the western public opinion courtesy of the best propaganda machine in history).
Only once did that American way of war really work as advertised: during the first Gulf War. And there is a good reason for that.
During the Cold War US force planners and strategists had developed a number of concepts to prepare for a war in Europe against the Soviet Union. Such concepts included the AirLand Battle doctrine or the Follow-on-Forces Attack (FOFA) which I shall not discuss in detail here, but which placed a heavy emphasis on long-range reconnaissance-strikes systems and the use of air forces to defeat an assumed Soviet conventional superiority, especially in armor. I believe that these were fundamentally sound doctrines which could have been used effectively in the European theater. By the time Iraq invaded Kuwait, the USA had honed these concepts to quasi-perfection and the US armed forces were well trained in applying them. Saddam Hussein then committed a series of unforgivable mistakes the worst one being to give the USA many months to deploy into the KSA —Kingdom of Saudi Arabia—(this blatantly contradicts Soviet military doctrine which tells me that Saddam Hussein did not listen to his Soviet-trained generals or that these generals were afraid to speak up).
Apparently, Saddam Hussein believed that having fought the Iranians during the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1988) he was ready to take on the USA. Well, he wasn’t. In fact, the way the Iraqis prepared for a US attack was a dream come true for US force planners and analysts because Saddam gave them the absolutely *perfect* target: large armored formations deployed in a desert with no air cover. The US, who for years had prepared to fight a much more sophisticated Soviet conventional military in the complex central European terrain (“Mischgelende” forests, many villages and town, rapid streams, steep hills and riverbanks, etc.) could simply not believe their luck: the Iraqis deployed in the worst possible manner making them an ideal target, much easier in fact than what was practiced for in US desert trainings. The result was predictable, the USA simply crushed the Iraqis and almost took no casualties.
Guess who observed that from right across the border with rapt attention?
The Iranians, of course.
If anybody seriously believes that the Iranians will prepare for a US attack by trying to out-American the Americans I have a few bridges to sell to them.
What Iranians, and Hezbollah, perfectly understood is that the key to prevail against the USA is to deny them the American way of war and to impose on them a type of warfare they absolutely loathe. We can call that the Iranian way of war. Here are a few of its key components:
1) Assume that the American will establish air supremacy in 24 hours or less and deny them any lucrative targets. Sounds simple, but it is not. This requires a number of steps which can take years to implement including, but not limited to, concealing, hardening and deeply burying the most valuable civilian and military assets, creating a highly redundant network of communication and prepare for semi-autonomous operations when communications fail, creating a country-wide system of local civilian-military cooperation aimed at the survivability of essential government services including law and order, have procedures in place to compensate for the disruption of energy distribution and the destruction of key transportation nodes, etc. It might be my Swiss training speaking here, but I would assume that over the past 30 years the Iranians have dug thousands of miles of underground tunnels and command posts which allows the country to literally “go under” for as long as is needed.
2) Develop a number of key advanced technologies such as GPS-spoofing, computer network penetration and disruption, electronic counter-measures warfare, advanced mine warfare, small boat operations and, of course, missile strikes not to deny the US forces any portion of the Iranian territory, but to dramatically increase the risks and costs of US operations. This is were a limited number of advanced air defense systems can make a critical difference, especially if successfully concealed.
Mojtaba Zonour: Senior member of the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Commission and former Islamic Revolution Guards Corps official warned that the slightest aggression by Washington against Iran will be responded by razing to the ground the US military base in Bahrain.
3) Engage in “horizontal escalation”: rather than wasting efforts in trying to shoot down US aircraft, use missile strikes to destroy US airfields (and ports) in the region. That is, by the way, official Iranian doctrine. Or strike at US forces in Iraq or Afghanistan. Target Israel or, even better, the Saudi regime. Force the US Navy to either engage in brown-water or, at most, green-water operations (here the Russian Kilo-class subs will excel) or force them to move back and shut down the Strait of Hormuz (the US Navy hates brown and green water operations, and for good reason, the USN is a blue-water navy par excellence) and the Americans are acutely aware of what happened to the US-built Israeli Sa’ar 5-class corvette when it got hit by Hezbollah fired Chinese-built C-802 missile.
4) Play the time card: time is always against the US military as the expectation is a short, easy war, with as little as casualties as possible and then a quick “out”. The Israelis ran out of steam in 33 days, NATO in 78 – so plan for at least a 12 month long conflict. Western forces have no staying power, let them hope for a “quickie” and then see how they react when it ain’t happening.
5) Use the traditional American sense of superiority and condescension for “sand niggers”or “hajis” and don’t bother trying to intimidate them. Instead, try to use that racist mindset to make them commit crucial strategic mistakes as Iran did when it used fake Iraqi “defectors” who spread disinformation about non-existing Iraqi WMDs to convince the US Neocons to lobby for an attack on Iraq to protect Israel. I find the notion of using US Neocons to make the US get rid of Saddam Hussein and basically hand over Iraq to Iran nothing short of pure genius. This is, of course, why it is never mentioned in western sources 🙂
6) Force the Americans to present you with more targets: the more US forces are deployed near Iran, the more targets they offer for Iranian counter-attacks and the more they get politically bogged-down (as shown by the recent Iraqi threat to revoke visas for US servicemen in Iraq in response to Trump temporary visa-ban; the threat is empty, but clearly nobody in the White House or Foggy Bottom ever considered such an option). Basically, being being everywhere CENTCOM forces are hated everywhere.
Admiral W. Fallon
The above are just a few examples from a long list of things the Iranians can do to respond to a US attack on Iran. We can expect the Iranians to come up with a much longer and far more creative list. By the way, there is nothing new or original in the list I made above, and the Americans are quite aware of it. There is a reason why even though the US has come as close as being hours away from striking at Iran they always backed down at the last second. So we have that endless tug-of-war: the US politicians (who believe their own propaganda) want to strike Iran, while US military specialists (who know better than to believe their own propaganda) constantly try to prevent such an attack. I want to mention Admiral William Fallon here, a true hero and patriot, who bluntly declared about a possible attack on Iran “not on my watch” in direct defiance of his political superiors. I hope that one day his service to his country in a very difficult situation will be finally recognized.
One more thing: Israel and the other regional powers. They are basically the equivalent of the vegetables served in a steak house: decoration. Just as NATO is a pretend force, so is the IDF and all the rest of the locals, including the Saudis, at least compared to Iran and Hezbollah. Yes, sure, they spend a lot of money, purchase expensive systems, but should a war break out, the Americans will be carrying 90%+ of the burden of real warfare, as opposed to politically correct coalition-building. Iran is a very large country with a complex geography, and the only ones who have the kind of power-projection capabilities to strike at Iran other than symbolically are the Americans. Of course, I am quite sure that should the US strike at Iran the Israelis will feel obliged to strike at some putatively nuclear target, return home and declare yet another victory of the “invincible Tsahal”. But to the extent that Iran will be meaningfully hurt, it will be by the US, not Israel.
So does that mean that Iran would come out unscathed from a US attack? Absolutely not. What I expect the Americans to do is what they have always done: engage in the mass murder of civilians in retaliation for their military failures. I know that this will, yet again, offend some doubleplusgoodthinking patriots, but massacring civilians is an American tradition dating from the very foundation of the United States. Anybody doubting that ought to read the superb book by John Grenier (USAF Ret.) entitled “The First Way of War 1607-1814: American War Making on the Frontier” which explains in exquisite detail how the US anti-civilian terror operations doctrine was developed over the centuries. This is, of course, what the Anglos did during WWII when they engaged in mass bombings of German cities to “break their spirit of resistance”. And this is what they did in Iraq and Serbia and what the Israelis did in Lebanon. And this is exactly what we should expect will happen in Iran. At least, this is the worst case scenario. There are really fundamentally two basic options for a US attack on Iran and I outlined them in my 2007 article about Iranian asymmetrical response options:
Broadly speaking, we see the Neocon Empire having two options in an attack on Iran:
-
A short, limited, attack on some Iranian nuclear and government installations. The goals of that kind of attack would be solely political: to appear to have “done something”, give the despondent Americans and Israelis some flags to wave, to “show resolve” and “send a firm message” – the kind of State Department nonsense. If lucky, they could hope to kill some Iranian leaders (although what exactly that would achieve is anyone’s guess). Lastly, it would punish the Iranians for their “bad behavior”.
-
A more significant military attack, which could not be limited to an air campaign and one which would have to include at least some insertion of ground forces. That would be similar to the strategy outlined in my How they might do it article. The goal of this option would be radically different from the first one: “to punish the Iranian population for its support of ‘the Mullahs’ (as the expression goes in the USA) via the ballot box. This is exactly the same logic which brought the Israelis to hammer all of Lebanon with bombs, missiles and mines – the same logic by which they killed over 500 people in Gaza – the same logic by which the U.S. bombed all of Serbia and Montenegro and the same logic which explains the bizarre embargo of Cuba. The message here is: if you support the bad guys, you will pay for it.”
The option I discussed today is the 2nd one, because this is the one which would get most people killed. But make no mistake, since neither one of these options would result in anything remotely resembling a victory (this is a political concept defining an achieved political objective) one would have to conclude that both of these options would result in failure and defeat. Such an attack would also seal the end of the US political role in the Middle-East unless, of course, being a despised elephant in a porcelain store is considered a “role”. But make no mistake, even if the Iranian casualty figures go in the hundred of thousands, or even over a million like in Iraq, the Iranians will not surrender and they will prevail. For one thing, terrorizing civilians has never worked. Genocide can be a much more viable option, but there are too many Iranians to do that and they are too well dug-in in their country to contemplate such an option (sorry, Israelis, even nuking Iran will not result in a “victory” of any kind). The Iranians have been at it for, what, 3000-9000 years (depending on how you count) and they will not be subdued, submitted or defeated with 200 or 70-year old states, or by an AngloZionist Empire in terminal decline.
I suspect that by now quite a few readers will be thoroughly irritated with me. So what better way is there for me to end this discussion than by adding religion to the mix? Yes, let’s do that!
Most Iranian are Shia, that is well known. But what is less well-known is one of the key mottos of the Shia which, I believe, beautifully expresses one of the key features of the Shia ethos, is: “Every day is Ashura and every land is Karbala”. You can find an explanation of this phrase here. It basically expresses the willingness to die for the truth at any time and in any place. Millions of Iranians, even those not necessarily very pious, have been raised with this determination to fight and resist, at any cost. And now think of Donald Trump or General “Mad Dog” Mattis and try to imagine how hollow and grotesque they and their threats look to their Iranian counterparts.
Should I write an analysis of Chinese response options to a US attack? Nah – let’s just say that if the US doesn’t have what it takes to prevail over Iran, an attack on China would be simply suicidal.
Next week, alas, I will probably have to turn back to the dramatic events in the Ukraine.
—The Saker
$27.95
APPENDIX 1
VIDEOS ON THE “WISDOM” OR, INSANITY, OF USING NUKES IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND SPECIFICALLY ATTACKING IRAN
Some of these video commentaries date back to the most recent round of Iran hysteria, under Obama’s watch, when Iran was being accused of having or being in the process of developing nuclear weapons. Truth and common sense however do not ate that easy or at all, hence our reposting here.
UNO Inspector Scott Ritter: Fools would bomb Iran.
Iranian Brigadier General on possible Israeli attack: Tel Aviv will be on fire before [planes] leave Iranian airspace
War with Iran: Are you kidding me? Dennis Kucinich
War With Iran A Terrible Idea – Here’s Why
Uploaded on Feb 21, 2012
“Should Israel decide to launch a strike on Iran, its pilots would have to fly more than 1,000 miles across unfriendly airspace, refuel in the air en route, fight off Iran’s air defenses, attack multiple underground sites simultaneously — and use at least 100 planes.That is the assessment of American defense officials and military analysts close to the Pentagon, who say that an Israeli attack meant to set back Iran’s nuclear program would be a huge and highly complex operation…”.* The Young Turks host Cenk Uygur breaks it down, including the over-hyped nuclear capability of Iran and why it would be a bad idea for the US to get involved in another war.
COMMENTS
BELOW WE PRESENT SELECT COMMENTS FROM THE ORIGINAL THREAD.
In our view, these comments reflect some of the most pertinent, pressing and astute questions suggested by the Saker’s analysis.
Very good article dear Saker, as always expected.
You should have added also the massive Russo-Chinese support (as a vital link in the newly OBOR, Iran will have all the support needed), the massive spec-ops raids on the Saudi petroleum infrastructure which would send oil to 200 or 300$, the massive influx of weapons to the talibans wich would spell the end of the NATO narco-state in Afghanistan, the acceleration of the de-dollarization of the world as China and Russia now view the US as an existential threat not just a bully.
And between us, do the US can really afford another large scale war ??? the printing machine is already working at full capacity just to prevent the house of cards from collapse.
@blue — not disputed. But US politicians do not think that far ahead;nor would they care about what happens to us after their turn at the feeding trough is over.
It is not unlike corporate management, which obsesses only on meeting this quarter’s dividend target. They do not plan to work somewhere for 35 years and retire from there, but to jump from their current jobs to better jobs as often as possible, accumulating as much as they can in the process.
The stock acronym (talking their peers in other companies into making terrible long-term deals for short term profit : YBGIBG — “You’ll be gone (by then), I’ll be gone.”
Iran’s missile technology and strategy should not be overlooked. The Iranians have emphasised their missile development capabilities over the years as an asymmetric answer to their regional enemies, including the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Do not think for a moment that Iran will not use its missiles against anything from a major Saudi oil processing station to American bases in the region to one or even more, American aircraft carrier fleets. They have a wide variety of missiles they have developed and I am certain they have manufactured literally tens of thousands of these preparing for this eventual war. They have indicated on many occasions their intent to attack in full force asymmetrically, raining down on their opponents their supply of missiles.
And it would not surprise me at all if during this conflagration, Hezbollah decided it was time to make mischief on Israeli soil.
-
This is a very good analysis of who and how might win an Iran-US conflict. Your knowledge is very broad Mr Saker.
BUT the wars of empires are rarely about winning conventionally. They are more to do with domestic politics, domestic population control, dividing coalescing vassals, and maintaining a status quo where winning in the conventional sense is not the objective at all. People who fight against empire seek and need to win outright.
A few snatched examples: an important aspect of the Crusades was keeping the feudal barons and their sons busy to stop domestic fighting and rivalry; among other factors the First WW came at a time of English government bankruptcy and diverted a political implosion; the Falklands war singlehandedly earned Thatcher another term; Vietnam was hardly about winning. It was much more to do with domestic politics than that.
Winning in Iran may not be the goal at all. If the Iranians run the US out after 10 years, as the Syrians have done after 5, the US might withdraw with Iran’s trade in tatters, its men dead and its cities in ruins. I would argue that that is the win.
Rather than win or lose, the discussion might be, what are the global, domestic and trade ramifications of the US doing this, yet again.
Brilliant if true.
2. Alas, I suspect that war with Iran is on the agenda — if only for the economic necessity of it in the US (military industrial complex) based economy. They need to shift equipment inventory and Trump needs ‘jobs’ for the domestic deplorables. What better way to shift some debt burden to NATO partners not carrying their share than to open the gates of Hell on 3rd rate (compared to Russia and China) non-nuclear recent world-class supplier (and price deflater) of petroleum products. Under this scenario, expect another ‘Arab Oil’ shock of 1970’s vintage with Saudi supplies being restricted (sad that) and US fracking at top-throttle into a $150/b export market price while China is squeezed nicely both as oil importer and (soon to be ex)-cheap price goods exporter. Trump and his clan have a plan for sure.
3. But I believe you are right in seeing the Ukraine boiling over. Trump may be prepared to deal with Putin for a 50:50 win-win line down the Dnieper. A plucky Putin might offer Trump a new referendum on/in Crimea as long as it includes the other disputed south east regions. Trump wouldn’t dare take the risk although sticking the boot into madman McCain would be to his liking I suspect.
A comment on the Iranians going underground. The Iraqis did this in 2003;
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2003/apr/09/iraq5
Much of the fighting for Baghdad took place undergound. If you research this, four giant bunker complexes were located in the Baghdad area. Two beneath the city and two beneath the airport. All were linked by a two-lane underground highway system. The ambush at the airport came from underground.
The Americans obviously had some sort of answer to this, the Iraqis claimed it was a neutron bomb but it’s possible they were thermobaric. The airport bunkers were 90ft below the surface, one beneath the opulent suite as well. These were installed by Eastern European Soviets.
NOTE: The Vineyard of the Saker is a fraternal site. This article was written for the Unz Review: http://www.unz.com/tsaker/u-s-against-iran-a-war-of-apples-vs-oranges/ MAIN IMAGE: US special forces in Iraq, 2009.
Note to Commenters
Due to severe hacking attacks in the recent past that brought our site down for up to 11 days with considerable loss of circulation, we exercise extreme caution in the comments we publish, as the comment box has been one of the main arteries to inject malicious code. Because of that comments may not appear immediately, but rest assured that if you are a legitimate commenter your opinion will be published within 24 hours. If your comment fails to appear, and you wish to reach us directly, send us a mail at: editor@greanvillepost.com
We apologize for this inconvenience.
What will it take to bring America to live according to its own propaganda?
=SUBSCRIBE TODAY! NOTHING TO LOSE, EVERYTHING TO GAIN.=
free • safe • invaluable
Please see our red registration box at the bottom of this page
Disclaimer: The contents of this article are of sole responsibility of the author(s). The Greanville Post, a publication of The Voice of Nature Network, Inc., (VNN), a not-for-profit 501 (c) (3) corporation, will not be responsible for any inaccurate or incorrect statement in this article. The Greanville Post grants permission to cross-post original The Greanville Post articles on community internet sites as long as the text & title are not modified. The source and the author’s copyright must be displayed. For publication of The Greanville Post articles in print or other forms including commercial internet sites, contact:
THE GREANVILLE POST contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available to our readers under the provisions of “fair use” in an effort to advance a better understanding of political, economic and social issues, and the furtherance of peace and social justice, the defence of our planetary ecosystems, and the prevention and eventual elimination of human abuse, exploitation,.and cruelty toward any and all non-human species The material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving it for research and educational purposes. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes other than “fair use” you must request permission from the copyright owner.
For media inquiries contact us at greanville@gmail.com
At last! Could you please write an analysis for the Chinese case as well?
Dear Saker,
Wow, thoroughly honest and penetrating – priceless!
Merci mille fois
I’ve always thought that in response to an attack Iran should call on the Shia in Iraq to attack the US forces. And support a rising and partisan warfare from the Saudi and Bahraini Shia. Coordinate attacks with the Houthi in Yemen against the Saudis. Not even to mention the Shia in Lebanon and Afghanistan. As well as arming the Taliban to strike at the US forces in Afghanistan.Sure they’d have to hold their nose to do that. But in a situation like that,why not hold your nose.