By Conn Hallinan

Iran is not a military threat to Israel, but it is a political problem, because Tel Aviv sees Teheran’s fierce nationalism and independence from the U.S. and Europe as a wildcard. Iran is also allied to Israel’s major regional enemy, Syria–with which it is still officially at war — and the Shiite-based Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq.

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Wars are fought because some people decide it is in their interests to fight them. World War I was not started over the Archduke Ferdinand’s assassination, nor was it triggered by the alliance system. An “incident” may set the stage for war, but no one keeps shooting unless they think it’s a good idea. The Great War started because the countries involved decided they would profit by it, delusional as that conclusion was.

It is useful to keep this idea in mind when trying to figure out if there will be a war with Iran. In short, what are the interests of the protagonists, and are they important enough for those nations to take the fateful step into the chaos of battle?

First off, because oil and gas are involved, a war would have global ramifications. Iran supplies China with about 15 percent of its oil, and India with 10 percent. It is a major supplier to Europe, Turkey, Japan and South Korea, and it has the third largest oil reserves and the second largest natural gas reserves in the world. Some 17 million barrels per day pass through the narrow Strait of Hormuz, a significant part of the globe’s energy supply.

In short, the actors in this drama are widespread and their interests as diverse as their nationalities.

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Iran is building nuclear weapons that pose an “existential” threat to Israel. But virtually no one believes this, including the bulk of Tel Aviv’s military and intelligence communities. As former Israeli Chief of Staff Dan Halutz said recently, Iran “is not an existential” threat to Israel. There is no evidence that Iran is building a bomb and all its facilities are currently under a 24-hour United Nations inspection regime.

But Israel does have an interest in keeping the Middle East a fragmented place, riven by sectarian divisions and dominated by authoritarian governments and feudal monarchies. If there is one lesson Israel has learned from its former British overlords, it is “divide and conquer.” Among its closest allies were the former dictatorships in Egypt and Tunisia, and it now finds itself on the same page as the reactionary monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman.

Iran is not a military threat to Israel, but it is a political problem, because Tel Aviv sees Teheran’s fierce nationalism and independence from the U.S. and Europe as a wildcard. Iran is also allied to Israel’s major regional enemy, Syria — with which it is still officially at war — and the Shiite-based Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Shiite-dominated government in Iraq.

In the Netanyahu government’s analysis, beating up on Iran would weaken Israel’s local enemies and at little cost. Tel Aviv’s scenario features a shock and awe attack, followed by a United Nations mandated ceasefire, with a maximum of 500 Israeli casualties. The Iranians have little capacity to strike back, and, if they did attack Israeli civilian centers or tried to close the Hormutz Strait, it would bring in the Americans.

Of course that rose-colored scenario is little more than wishful thinking. Iran is not likely to agree to a ceasefire — it fought for eight long years against Iraq — and war has a habit of derailing the best-laid plans. In real life it will be long and bloody and might well spread to the entire region.

Iran’s leaders use a lot of bombast about punishing Israel if it attacks, but in the short run, there is not a lot they could do, particularly given the red lines Washington has drawn. The Iranian air force is obsolete, and the Israelis have the technology to blank out most of Teheran’s radar and anti-aircraft sites. Iran could do little to stop Tel Aviv’s mixture of air attacks, submarine-fired cruise missiles, and Jericho ballistic missiles.

For all its talk about “everything being on the table,” the Obama administration appears to be trying to avoid a war, but with the 2012 elections looming, would Washington remain on the sidelines? On the “yes” side are polls indicating that Americans would not look with favor on a new Middle East war. But on the “no” side are a united front of Republicans, neo-conservatives, and the American Israeli Political Action Committee pressing for a confrontation with Iran.

Israeli sources suggest that Netanyahu may calculate that in the run-up to the 2012 American elections, an Israeli attack might force the Obama Administration to back a war and/or damage Obama’s re-election chances. It is no secret that there is no love lost between the two leaders.

But the U.S. also has a dog in this fight, and one not all that different than Israel’s. American hostility to Iran dates back to Teheran’s seizure of its oil assets from Britain in 1951. The CIA helped overthrow the democratically elected Iranian government in 1953 and install the dictatorial Shah. The U.S. also backed Saddam Hussein’s war on Iran, has had a longstanding antagonistic relationship with Syria, and will not talk with Hezbollah or Hamas. Tel Aviv’s local enemies are Washington’s local enemies.

When the Gulf monarchs formed the GCC in 1981, its primary purpose was to oppose Iranian influence in the Middle East. Using religious division as a wedge, the GCC has encouraged Sunni fundamentalists to fight Shiites in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, and blocked the spread of the “Arab Spring” to its own turf. When Shiites in Bahrain began protesting over a lack of democracy and low wages, the GCC invaded and crushed the demonstrations. The GCC does not see eye-to-eye with the U.S. and Israel on the Palestinians — although it is careful not to annoy Washington and Tel Aviv — but the GCC is on the same page as both capitals concerning Syria, Lebanon and Iran.

The European Union (EU) has joined the sanctions, although France and Germany have explicitly rejected the use of force. Motivations in the EU range from France’s desire to reclaim its former influence in Lebanon to Europe’s need to keep its finger on the energy jugular vein. In brief, it isn’t all about oil and gas but a whole lot of it is, and, as CounterPunch’s Alexander Cockburn points out, oil companies would like to see production cut and prices rise. A war would accomplish both.

Iran will be the victim here, but there will be some who would take advantage of a war. An attack would unify the country around what is now a rather unpopular government, allow the Revolutionary Guard to crush its opposition, and give cover to the current drive by the Ahmadinejad government to cut subsidies for transportation, housing and food. A war would cement the power of the most reactionary elements of the current regime.

There are other actors in this drama — China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Pakistan for starters, none of whom support a war — but whether they can influence events is an open question. In the end, Israel may just decide that its interests are served by starting a war, and that the U.S. will go along because it is much of the same mind.

Or maybe this is all sound and fury signifying nothing?

The sobering thought is that the three most powerful actors in this drama — Israel, the U.S. and its European allies, and the Gulf Cooperation Council — have many of the same interests, and share the belief that force is an effective way to achieve one’s goals.

On such illusions are tragedies built.
Submitters Website: http://dispatchesfromtheedgeblog.wordpress.com

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Conn M. Hallinan is a columnist for Foreign Policy In Focus, “A Think Tank Without Walls, and an independent journalist. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of California, Berkeley. He oversaw the journalism program at the University of California at Santa Cruz for 23 years, and won the UCSC Alumni Association’s Distinguished Teaching Award, as well as UCSC’s Innovations in Teaching Award, and Excellence in Teaching Award.  He was also a college provost at UCSC, and retired in 2004. He is a winner of a Project Censored “Real News Award,” and lives in Berkeley, California.

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WWL Radio #142 Cindy Sheehan Interview

Listen to Cindy Sheehan and Diane Gee live on WWL Radio Friday, February 24th at 6pm ET!

Listen live by clicking the link icon below:

Tonight I am thrilled and honored to speak with Cindy Sheehan. We will be discussing her new book, “Revolution, A Love Story” which chronicles her time spent in Venezuela, and her meetings with Hugo Chavez! She has seen first hand, there is indeed a better way, than the predatory capitalism we suffer here, the World suffers under the US’s actions. Cindy is a force of nature. I have long admired her tenacity, her bravery and her honesty. I imagine that when 2 middle aged, pissed off Moms – turned Revolutionaries sit down for a conversation; this shall be an amazing show!

The call in number is 646-929-1264 to join the conversation! Tip: In order to comment in the show’s companion chat, you must create a BTR account, its free and only takes seconds. Chat is monitored during the show, so make yourself heard.

Miss the show? The podcasts are available at the link above, or at the Wild Wild Left Join Wild Wild Left Radio every Friday at 6pm ET, with Hostess and Producer Diane Gee to guide you through Current Events taken from a Wildly Left Prospective….

WWL Radio: Bringing you controversial, cutting edge, revolutionary, “out there where the buses don’t run” LEFT perspective since January of 2009!

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 Danny Davis Didn’t Tell the Half of It

 
a syndrome clearly seen in its top brass where careerism is rampant. —Eds
Credit: Walter Jenkins

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Thank you, WSWS.ORG

One has to go back to such military-fascist dictatorships as the Pinochet regime in Chile to find a parallel to the attacks being imposed by the European Union on the working people of Greece. With sadistic zeal, the commissioners in Brussels, at the behest of Berlin, Paris and London, make each new financial package dependent on fresh demands for destroying the livelihoods of Greek workers and making their lives hell.

Events in Greece show the true character of the European Union. It is not a means of achieving genuine European unity, but rather an instrument to subjugate all of Europe under the dictatorship of finance capital.

The EU institutions make a mockery of democratic principles. Non-elected commissioners accountable to no one determine the fate of whole countries. Decisions of the European Council are regularly sealed on the basis of trade-offs between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the leaders of the EU’s two most powerful member-states. The European Parliament, which decides nothing, serves as a pseudo-democratic fig leaf.

Since its establishment two decades ago, the EU has systematically wound back the clock of social progress in Europe. Instead of bringing the continent together, the euro has further increased the influence of the economically powerful countries, above all Germany, over the weaker nations.

In Eastern Europe, the EU has overseen the destruction of education and health and social welfare systems. It has fostered the growth of a corrupt elite that enriched itself through the privatisation of state assets and EU subsidies. For the vast majority of the population, entry into the EU has turned out to be a nightmare.

It was long claimed that the social decline of Eastern Europe was merely a transitional stage. These countries were said to have inherited ailing economies from the former Stalinist regimes, but were being prepared for a flourishing future.

The fate of Greece reveals that social decline in Eastern Europe is not the exception, but the rule for all of Europe.

The purpose of the so-called “aid packages” for which the Greek population must sacrifice is not to help the people, but to enrich the banks, hedge funds and speculators. For many experts and officials, the bankruptcy of Greece is a foregone conclusion. According to Spiegel Online, they admit off the record: “Of course, the 130 billion [euros] will not solve the problem. It is only a question of buying time. Time until the financial markets have stabilized to the extent that they can handle the bankruptcy of Greece without a chain reaction.”

Of the €130 billion agreed by European finance ministers on Monday, €30 billion will flow directly to the accounts of creditor banks, which are guaranteed repayment (with interest) of a portion of their loans to Greece already written off. The remaining money goes into an escrow account to ensure that it is used to pay off debts and not to finance essential government functions.

Anger over the dictates of the EU is mounting not only in Greece, but also in Portugal, Spain and Ireland, which have also been targeted by the financial markets. In the past few days, hundreds of thousands have taken to the streets.

It is increasingly evident that the working class cannot defend a single social or democratic right without breaking from the European Union.

Some nationalist political forces both within and outside of Greece are calling for withdrawal from the EU. They do so on a pro-capitalist basis that leads both to the further impoverishment of the working class and the further fracturing of Europe. The working class must not allow popular opposition to the EU to fall under the leadership of such forces.

Above all, these forces—whether on the right or the nominal “left”—use nationalism to line the working class up behind the ruling class of each country and block the emergence of an independent movement of the working class and the unification of working class struggles across Europe.

An autarchic Greek capitalism is not viable. The country would remain at the mercy of the international financial markets, much like Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo and the other small states which emerged from the break-up of Yugoslavia.

Some spokesmen of international capital advocate such a development. The head of the German Ifo institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, argues that Greece’s exit from the euro group and the devaluation of its currency would reduce the living standards of Greek workers by a further 30 percent while avoiding further direct wage cuts, which, he warns, would drive the country “to the brink of civil war.”

This underscores the necessity for Greek workers to fight for withdrawal from the EU on the basis of a revolutionary socialist and internationalist program. The rejection of EU diktats by Greek workers would provide a powerful impetus to the workers in Germany, France, Italy, Britain, Spain, Portugal and internationally—the real allies of the Greek working class. It would draw European workers together in a common struggle against austerity, unemployment and attacks on democratic rights.

The ruling elites of Europe and Greece are preparing for the national bankruptcy of Greece and the social conflicts that will inevitably ensue. On the one hand, they are considering bringing pseudo-left organizations such as the Democratic Left, Syriza and the Stalinist KKE into government. The task of such a “left” government would be to contain and dissipate any offensive launched by the working class and keep the state apparatus intact until the ruling class is prepared for a counteroffensive.

At the same time, preparations are being made to impose dictatorial forms of rule, like that imposed by the Greek military between 1967 and 1974. The Greek generals work inside NATO in close cooperation with American, British and German officers. The world’s biggest military alliance has long supported military dictatorships within its ranks. Fascist Portugal was a founding member of NATO in 1949, and the US-led alliance worked closely with Franco in Spain. Greece and Turkey, where the generals staged a coup on three occasions, joined in 1952.

Mass poverty and dictatorship can be prevented only by the Greek working class opposing not only the EU but also the Greek bourgeoisie and its state. Greek workers must fight for the establishment of a workers’ government. Such a government would expropriate the large fortunes, banks and corporations and reorganise the economy on a socialist basis for the benefit of society as a whole, rather than the profit interests of the financial aristocracy.

Workers must break with the unions and all political parties that seek to bind them to the EU and the Greek capitalists. They should establish action committees in workplaces and residential areas to take over the organization of daily life, prepare the fight against the austerity measures and organize defensive action against attacks by fascists and the military.

Such action committees must coordinate their fight at a national level and establish contact with workers in Germany, France, Spain, Portugal and other European countries in order to topple the EU and replace it with the United Socialist States of Europe.

The most urgent question is that of revolutionary leadership. A new leadership must be built based on the fight for the international unity and political independence of the working class and the struggle for socialism. Workers in Greece and throughout Europe should make the decision to build that leadership by building a section of the International Committee of the Fourth International in every country.

Peter Schwarz is a political commentator with WSWS.ORG, a publication of the Socialist Equality Party (SEP).

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By Steven Jonas, MD, MPH

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is steadily climbing the GOP polls (even though his standing versus President Obama is dismal). He may even win in Michigan, one of the several home states of former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. (Whatever happened to “Willard?” But that’s another story). At any rate, having done “Ask” columns on Newt and the other Rick (Perry, remember him?) I believe that the Senator has risen far enough in the polls that he deserves one for himself. So here goes.

1. You frequently talk about your grandfather, a coal miner. I’m wondering why you never talk about the union he most likely belonged to, the United Mine Workers. Its President when it was at the height of its powers in the 1930s and 40s, when your grandfather was presumably working, was John L. Lewis, one of the most militant non-Communist labor leaders in US history. Or is the possible reason that you don’t talk about your grandfather’s union is that he belonged to the Communist-led Progressive Mine Workers?

2. Speaking of Communists, are you aware that members of your family still living in the north of Italy are ardent members the Communist Refoundation Party (Rifondazione), the successor to the former Communist Party of Italy?

3. Speaking of ancestors, while you talk frequently about your grandfather, you never seem to mention your parents. Could that be because both your father, a clinical psychologist, and your mother, a nurse, worked for the largest socialized medicine service in the U.S., otherwise known as the Veterans Administration Hospital system? Could that be because you have vowed to repeal even the modest changes to the world’s most expensive health care system contained in the Affordable Care Act? You have gone so far as to call the latter “socialized medicine,” or worse, when all it does is make some relatively modest changes to the health insurance system. It would bring another 30 or so million people under its umbrella eventually, a far cry from the coverage and services provided by the government-owned and operated system both your parents worked for. But you don’t talk about them.

4. You have referred to the science behind our understanding of global warming and the threats to humanity and indeed many of the Earth’s species that it presents as “punk science.” You feel that we should continue to rely on fossil fuels and indeed would vastly expand the extraction of same regardless of the pollution of the air, water and ground that such extraction causes. You are also against any government-supported development of alternative fuels and energy sources. But suppose you are wrong, and global warming is real (as virtually all scientists who have worked on the problem agree that it is). What then? But even if the science is wrong, we are going to run out of fossil fuels eventually. Why not work on the development of alternative energy, just as every other major power in the world, including China which has literally tons of coal, is, anyway? If you’re right, we would still derive the benefits of cheaper energy in the long run. So why not go for it?

5. You seem to be bothered by homosexuals and homosexuality to a rather extraordinary degree. You have compared homosexual intercourse to “bestiality,” for example, and would outlaw it. (One wonders how such a law would be enforced, but that is another matter.) You have a lot of sweater vests in your closet. Whole bunches of right-wing Republicans come out or are exposed as gay on a regular basis, the latest being Sheriff Paul Babeau of Pinal County, AZ. Is there anything else your closet we should know about?

6. Speaking of sex, you have said that the only reason for humans to have it is to engage in procreation. Your youngest child is four and you are 53. Does that mean that you and your wife have not had sex in over four years?

7. On the abortion thing, based on your religious belief about when life begins you are against it and want it to be criminalized, in the process criminalizing the religious/secular belief of those of us who hold that life begins at the time of viability (which criminalization would violate the First Amendment, but that is another matter). Would you be for sending just the abortion providers to prison, or would you include those women who have them too? And if the latter were sent to prison for violating the law, who would care for their children? Of course, since you think that abortion is murder, would you be going for the death sentence, for the providers, for the recipients? How would you go about paying for the massive increase in the size and scope of the criminal justice system that the criminalization of abortion in the way you contemplate it would entail?

8. Further on abortion, you are against it in all cases, including those resulting from rape and incest. In such cases, would the father be responsible for child support?

9. You want to keep US troops in Afghanistan until “victory” is achieved. How do you define “victory,” and how do you propose to keep paying for that war?

10. You have said that you would be in favor of bombing Iran over their supposed nuclear weapons program. Several questions. A) Do you remember the “WMD threat” from Iraq that turned out to be bogus? B) Have you given any thought to the massive loss of civilian life that would be incurred in any US/Israeli bombing raid massive enough to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program, whatever its true objectives? C) How would you explain to our nation the incredible rise in the cost of gasoline that would result from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz which would certainly occur should such raid take place and the resulting anti-American acts of violence that would invariably take place around the world? D) how would you pay from the vast expansion of war at home and abroad that would follow upon such raids?

11. Finally, you have been bombarded with the “contraceptive question,” so I won’t raise it here. Except to note that if you and your wife do still engage in sexual intercourse and she has not been pregnant for a while, either she is past menopause or you two are incredibly lucky at Vatican Roulette, and taking the literal meaning of the term, isn’t that a form of contraception?

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Steven Jonas, MD, MPH is a Professor of Preventive Medicine at Stony Brook University (NY) and author/co-author/editor of over 30 books. In addition to being a Contributing Editor for The Greanville Post (https://www.greanvillepost.com/; he is Managing Editor and a Contributing Author for TPJmagazine; a Contributor to The Planetary Movement, a Columnist for Truthout/BuzzFlash (http://www.truth-out.org/, http://www.buzzflash.com), a Featured Writer for Dandelion Salad, a Contributor to Op-Ed News.com (http://www.opednews.com/), and a Contributor to TheHarderStuff newsletter.

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