Venezuelan turmoil seems to suggest replay of the “Ukrainian model”
Elections in Venezuela Could Lead to Violence and Caribbean Instability
The Chavista legacy is struggling to survive after losing its charismatic founder.
REPOSTED March 1, 2014
By Perry Miller
(First version APRIL 10, 2013)
Editor’s Note: As Washington is apparently on a roll across the planet destabilizing every government that seems weak enough or vulnerable enough to its dirty tricks, the troubles in Venezuela mount. It’s obvious the Washington jackals are trying to pull another “Ukraine,” this time in the American hemisphere. After all, Venezuela is reputed to have the biggest oil reserves in the world. Against this backdrop we are pleased to dust off this fine article outlining the forces at play in Venezuela today.—PG
With the new and uncertain post-Chavez period in Venezuela rapidly unveiling and elections scheduled for April 14th, tensions within the nation and with the United States (US) are expanding. Venezuela, an oil rich and wildly successful socialist country, has again become a battleground between Chavez’s socialist supporters and wider US allies that dot the landscape of the Americas. The death of Hugo Chavez, the populist, and 14 year ruler of Venezuela, has sparked an all-out battle for the support of the citizens, military, and surrounding states.
Chavez, in his 14 years in office, moved the nation farther to the left, dared to defy western domination, filled the state’s coffers, and radically provided for the many poor—reducing the number of people below the poverty line from 55 percent to fewer than 39 percent. In unprecedented legislation, Chavez championed a pension program for the nation’s disenfranchised laborers to climb out of subsistence farming and urban decay to new heights of education, healthcare and employment assurance. This legislation is a sore point with the new, right-wing, anti-Chavez opposition. To the millions of Chavez supporters, the social welfare programs are considered untouchable.
Chavez aligned himself with Cuba, in defiance of the US and provided oil to them in exchange for medical services and medical products. He and his government, primarily with oil revenues, oversaw the nations rise from a poorly funded, primarily agricultural society to an urbanized, regional powerhouse. Chavez nationalized oil production and with the sharp rise in oil prices worldwide oversaw an economic boom.
Hugo Chavez, still a heroic figure to many Venezuelans, died of cancer in March after seeking treatment in Cuba. His death has left Venezuela radically divided.
The elections, between Vice President Nicolas Maduro and opposition candidate Henrique Capriles Radonski is a referendum on Chavez’s legacy and the direction in which the nation will take. Currently, Maduro–the Chavez handpicked successor– is leading by 15 points in some polls. He promises a continuation of Chavez policies and a return to the economic success that fueled the nation’s ascendance.
Recently, Radonski supporters have made some tough progress among the electorate. A recently declining economy, which includes a 30 percent devaluation of the nation’s currency, has emboldened the anti-Maduro minions. He recently stated that he would denationalize the state oil company (PDVSA), cut back on popular welfare programs and seek closer relations with the US. These statements have not endeared him to the majority of Venezuelan voters.
The elections on April 14th will have a profound effect on the political and social direction of Venezuela. The political demonstrations and rallies sponsored by the candidates across the country, whether supporting Maduro or Radonski, have already given hints of what may become general social unrest, political shuffling, and outright violence in the streets.
Many Caribbean island nations, lying few miles offshore of the long stretch of beach around Caracas, have important ties to the Venezuelan political landscape, especially their oil export policy. And, an export of the current Venezuelan political machinations, mass demonstrations, violence, or perhaps a military intervention could affect smaller and less developed Caribbean states. Any reduction or redirection in oil exports, and changes in political alliances, could see the political stability, social homogeny, and economic solvency of patron Caribbean states in a regionally tenuous situation.
