UKRAINE: What could the next Junta offensive against Novorussia look like?

[dropcap]O[/dropcap]Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle in which I was trying to prepare my readers for the possible consequences of a massive Ukrainian assault.  Разбор полетов – “after action report”

[dropcap]L[/dropcap]ooking back, I would say that what actually took place was neither the best, nor the worst, option, but an “in the middle” kind of outcome: initially, the Ukies almost severed Donetsk from Lugansk, but they never had the capability to really enter these cities and execute urban offensive operations.  The junta forces did penetrate deeply in Novorussian territory, but they were soon surrounded and the famous “cauldrons” began to form.  The biggest loss for the Novorussians was the loss of Slaviansk and Kramotorsk which Strelkov attempted to hold as long as possible apparently in the hope of a Russian military intervention, even though he always knew that Slaviansk was indefensible.  When it became clear that the Russians would not come, Strelkov did the right thing and pulled his forces out of Slaviansk and into Donetsk.

All in all, the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) proved to be a force far superior to the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) which suffered from the following problems:

• Criminally incompetent top commanders in Kiev and at the operational headquarters.
• Terrible logistics
• Poor morale
• Poor training
• Poor coordination
• A hostile local population

The strong points of the JRF were:

• An overwhelming advantage in firepower
• An overwhelming advantage in armor
• An overwhelming advantage in numbers
• A monopoly on heavy weapons
• A total control of the skies
• The individual courage and resilience of the soldiers of the regular and, especially, special army units

The Novorussians negated these advantages by never presenting a lucrative target, by their high mobility and by their extremely successful air-defenses.

The weak points of the NAF were:

• An acute lack of firepower
• An acute lack of armor
• An acute lack of men (especially specialists)
• The total absence of heavy weapons
• The absence of a true central command

The strong points of the NAF were:

• The extremely high morale of all the fighting men and women
• Very competent commanders and experienced officers
• Very strong tactical skills
• Excellent knowledge and use of the terrain
• Excellent intelligence (no doubt with Russian GRU help)
• Extremely effective air-defenses (which imposed a no-fly zone on the Ukies)
• Strong support from the local population
• A remarkable network of highly skilled technicians capable of repairing, cannibalizing and even rebuilding weapons with old, damaged and abandoned Ukie hardware

All in all the Novorussians did a superb job negating all the advantages of the Ukies while maximizing on their own strong points.  There were ups and down, but I would say that the bottom line of the July-September offensive was a crushing and humiliating defeat for the Ukies and a superb victory for the Novorussians.

What if the Junta attacks again?

But now – Sunday morning – there is a quasi-consensus that the Junta is about to launch yet another massive offensive.  Assuming that this is true – and I personally think this is very likely – what are we likely to see?  Furthermore, since the same causes tend to produce the same effects, the key question is this: what have the Ukies learned from their defeat this summer and what could they do differently this time around?

Alas, I don’t have access to any first hand information about how the Junta has been preparing itself for the new assault.  Here is what I have found out through the Russian and Ukrainian media:

Junta-controlled military factories have been working night and day to produce a large number of tanks, APCs, IFVs and artillery pieces.  The Ukrainians have been training their SU-25 and Mi-24 pilots.  New volunteer units have been created and regular army units have been re-organized.  The Ukies have built defensive lines along key sectors of the front (such apparently “defensive” preparations are actually crucial for any offensive plans since a highly prepared defensive sector can be held by numerically smaller forces while preventing an counter-attack or envelopment from the other side).  We have to assume that more men have been mobilized and trained and that the next Ukie assault will again pit a very large Ukrainian force against a much smaller Novorussian one.  But will that be enough for the Ukies to prevail?

I don’t think so.

Morale-boosting poster

What the Ukies are preparing is rather obvious.  They will pick several key axes of attack along which they will unleash a massive artillery attack.  This fire preparation will serve to prepare for a push by Ukrainian armored units (this time around we can expect the Ukrainian infantry to properly defend their tanks and not the other way around).  The Ukrainians will not push deep into Donetsk or Lugansk, but rather they will try to, again, cut-off and surround Donetsk in a pincer attack and then negotiate some kind of quasi-surrender by the Novorussians.  At most, they will try to enter a few important suburbs.  I don’t expect much action around Lugansk – Donetsk is far more exposed.

Should the voentorg prove insufficient, I am confident that Russia will overtly move in.  There is no way that Russia can accept the fall of Novorussia to the Nazis.

I don’t think that the Ukie air force will be of much use, if anything the Novorussian air defense probably got even better.  Mostly, I fear their long range artillery and their sheer numbers.  But even if we look at the worst case scenario (successful Ukie attack cutting off Donetsk) I don’t think that the the JRF will prevail.  There is still no doubt in my mind whatsoever that if Novorussia is really threatened then Russia will intervene, overtly if needed.  From what all sources are reporting, the voentorg is working at full capacity and weapons are flowing in in very large numbers including sophisticated ones.  I think that Putin’s plan is to try to keep the Nazis out of Novorussia only by means of voentorg.  But should that not be enough, I am confident that Russia will overtly move in.  There is no way that Russia can accept the fall of Novorussia to the Nazis.

—The Saker