Paul Craig Roberts – Russia’s black swan card(s) and the end of NATO

[dropcap]TODAY[/dropcap] Dr. Roberts: “I was listening to the news today and there were all these self-righteous people just happy as all get out that they had finally stomped Russia into the ground and ‘Russia is now finished,’ and Russia was broken and ‘would soon be an American vassal state where it belongs.’ And I was listening to this rot and got to thinking, ‘How can people be so utterly stupid?’ But they are, and they are just as stupid in Washington.

And in the meantime, as part of this process, Eric, we may see Russia unleash the predicted black swans that bring down the Western house of cards…

“Suppose the Russian government says, ‘Well, since the attack on the ruble is political and you guys are attacking the ruble and causing us so much trouble, we are just not going to pay off the next tranche of our debt that comes due early in 2015.’

Well, the European banking system would collapse because those banks are terribly under-capitalized. Some of them have loans to Russia that almost absorb the entire capital base. So the Russians don’t even have to default. They can just say, ‘We’re not going to pay this year. We will do it later. We’ll do it when the ruble stabilizes.’ (Laughter).

You can understand the impact of such a decision by the Russians on the West. And given all the linkages and the interconnections – when Lehman Brothers went down it had just about as much adverse affect on Europe as it did the United States.
[…]
What would come from that? Who knows? There are all kinds of derivatives and credit default swaps everywhere. We know these derivatives now are some multiple of the world’s Gross Domestic Product. And nobody really knows who all the counterparties are. If the European banks start going down, who knows what the impact on this pile of derivatives would be? But the whole Western system is a house of cards. It’s not based on anything other than market manipulation. So it doesn’t take much of a push to knock it down.
[…]
The biggest black swan of all, Eric, if the Russians get thoroughly angry, all they have to do is call up the European governments and say, ‘We no longer sell natural gas or any other form of energy to members of NATO.’ The consequence would be the utter and total collapse of NATO. Not even a puppet state like Germany is going to let the people freeze to death, let the factories be closed down, and let the unemployment rate hit 40 percent. It’s just not going to happen – it would be the end of NATO.

So whenever the Russians want to destroy NATO, that’s all they have to do. Just call up the puppet Merkel, call up the puppet Hollande, the puppet Cameron, and say, ‘You guys really enjoy being in NATO, well let me tell you what, we no longer sell energy to NATO members.’ That’s the end of NATO and that’s the end of the cover for American power.

That would set off so many black swans. Every banking system would probably collapse because if the German banks are faced with German industry closing down, what the hell is going to happen to the banks? So all the cards are in Putin’s hands. None of them are in Washington’s hands. Putin is going to ignore it and reorient Russia to the East. Then you are going to see Russia, India, and China, take over the leadership of the world. That will start in 2015.”

Listen to the entire interview:

[box type=”bio”] Comment: Paul Craig Roberts gives a shrewd assessment of the political and economic maneuvering between Russia and Washington. When the facts are laid out it’s clear Washington is operating from a fantasy world. Unfortunately, the rest of us in the real world will have to live with the consequences.[/box]

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