=By= “B”
moon of alabama
Today the Russian President Putin gave his yearly address to the Russian Federal Assembly. In the context of terrorism and the shooting down of the Russian fighter in Syria he addressed some very harsh words to the Turkish President Erdogan:
[T]he Turkish people are kind, hardworking and talented. We have many good and reliable friends in Turkey. Allow me to emphasise that they should know that we do not equate them with the certain part of the current ruling establishment that is directly responsible for the deaths of our servicemen in Syria.We will never forget their collusion with terrorists. We have always deemed betrayal the worst and most shameful thing to do, and that will never change. I would like them to remember this –those in Turkey who shot our pilots in the back, those hypocrites who tried to justify their actions and cover up for terrorists.
I don’t even understand why they did it. Any issues they might have had, any problems, any disagreements we knew nothing about could have been settled in a different way. Plus, we were ready to cooperate with Turkey on all the most sensitive issues it had; we were willing to go further, where its allies refused to go. Allah only knows, I suppose, why they did it. And probably, Allah has decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey by taking their mind and reason.
But, if they expected a nervous or hysterical reaction from us, if they wanted to see us become a danger to ourselves as much as to the world, they won’t get it. They won’t get any response meant for show or even for immediate political gain. They won’t get it.
Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people. We are not going to rattle the sabre. But, if someone thinks they can commit a heinous war crime, kill our people and get away with it, suffering nothing but a ban on tomato imports, or a few restrictions in construction or other industries, they’re delusional. We’ll remind them of what they did, more than once. They’ll regret it. We know what to do. [The full presidential address can be read also here.]
That was strong stuff from someone who usually stays very cool. These were not even threats but direct declarations that Russia will take revenge and will follow through.
Putin with his security council.
At the end of last week there were some rumors that Russian ships crossing the Bosphorus between the Mediterranean and the Black Sea were unreasonably delayed. Someone claimed that Turkey was holding them up but the issue soon vanished again. I filed that under “false rumor” but I was wrong. It apparently happened:
Turkey is creating obstacles for Russian ships without technically violating the right of free passage through the Turkish Straits, the online newspaper Vzglyad reports.According to an online vessel tracking system, Russian ships moved in zigzags and circles on Nov. 29, waiting for hours for permission to enter the Bosphorus.
For instance, the Bratsk waited for permission from 10.00 to 19.00, and the Volgobalt from 3.00 to 17.00. However, as stated by the Ukrainian Center for Transport Policies, vessels belonging to the other countries passed through the straits without a delay on that day.
The Haberler.com news website reports that the transport ship Yauza was met by a Turkish submarine as it was passing through the Dardanelles on the morning of Nov. 30.
The Istanbul media reported the same day that at least two Turkish submarines were located in the vicinity of the Moskva missile cruiser (covering the Khmeimim Russian airbase in Syria).
Back in September Pat Lang posted this at his site:
[T]he Russians seem intent on reinforcing the Syrian government and the US is doing all it can to prevent this. The US has pressured governments seeking a denial of diplomatic overflight clearances for Russian cargo aircraft en route to Syria. It has also sought some means with which to deny Russian vessels passage through the Bosporus and Dardanelles.
It seems that Obama administration had developed the idea to delay Russian ships without directly violating the Montreux Cenvention that covers free passage through the strait. Erdogan used the trick last week to put additional pressure on Russia. But there was nothing in the wider news about this standoff.
So did this really happen and how was this resolved? Joanne Leon asked that question today and two answers from knowledgeable people were offered:
Elijah J. Magnier @EjmAlrai
Turkey mentioned it and sent 2 submarines. Russia said “Turkey can’t do it” and sent 2 submarines hunters
and
Dr Shahid @DR_SHAHID
Yup.
Russia Threatened To Nuke Ankara.
Problem Solved.
Hmm … I am not sure we know if the issue was really resolved with a nuclear threat or by some lesser means. But as no further ships were reported delayed the crisis seems to be over and Russia got its way.
To delay Russian ships by military means is rude behavior by Erdogan just short of openly declaring war. This and the fact that he ordered to ambush and shoot down a Russian jet likely incited Putin to use really harsh words today. Had Erdogan apologized and blamed some minions for the fighter jet shoot down the episode would have been forgotten by now.
But Erdogan escalated. Putin will now not rest until he has kicked that wannabe Sultan off his throne. My bet is that he will be more resourceful in his endeavor than Erdogan.
This for example is exceptional good trolling. Who arranged for this very intelligent hoax to appear in various U.S. media last night?
Pass the popcorn, please.
Posted by b on December 3, 2015 at 03:26 PM | Permalink
Putin marches to his own drummer.
appendix
BELOW WE REPRODUCE SELECT COMMENTS FROM ORIGINAL THREAD
Might be the information that was ‘not yet announced’ at the Russian presser on Turkey-oil-Da’esh? And I note that Tayyeep bin Ardogan, citizen of Qatar is rightly given second billing in the very droll troll. Da’esh=KSA=Da’esh.
Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 3:43:00 PM | 2
That last paragraph in President Putin’s statement is legit. Nice knowing you, Erdogan.
Posted by: Bruno Marz | Dec 3, 2015 4:00:25 PM | 3
I hope they catch this Ardogan guy. He’s a menace to humanity.
Posted by: dh | Dec 3, 2015 4:02:48 PM | 4
He would not have exposed Erdogan’s oil business if Erdogan had simply accepted the fact that the game is over. Instead, Erdogan decided to risk everything and shoot down the Russian bomber. Now his future is completely dependent on people in the west who secretly hate his guts.
Erdogan is a very capable politician who thinks he can maneuver his way out of any situation.
He will not escape Putin.
Posted by: plantman | Dec 3, 2015 4:04:28 PM | 5
The fighter plane incident was a culmination of a clear support for terrorism by Turkey over many years, for instance the ease with which terrorists could transit Turkey and the supply of weapons, the recent disclosure of which resulted in two prominent Turkish journalists being jailed for treason etc. The proven theft [pillage] of oil by ISIL and subsequent sale in Turkey [set out yesterday in the Russian military press conference] puts the top hat on it. Remember these oil transactions are with ‘bad’ terrorists rather than the so called ‘good terrorist’ as put about by the US. The NATO member state Turkey is and has for a long time been a state supporter of terrorism, not only aimed initially at Russia’s ally Syria, but Russia’s vital interests in its underbelly the Caucasus. The wider war between Iran, Syria, Iraq and Hezbollah and Russia as well as being existential, will decide who controls the middle east, that is why the stakes are so high for the US and its satraps in the GCC states. In my opinion the ‘arc of resistance’ will win.
Posted by: harry law | Dec 3, 2015 4:05:03 PM | 6
Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 4:34:03 PM | 8
The “hoax” name was traced to a tweet by an LA times reporter (@RickSerranoLAT) who said he got it from local police. However, SBDO police later said they hadn’t released that name. Apparently it had been tweeted hours earlier by a random Tweep (@Veruca72) who likely got it from a police scanner.
At the start of the SBDO sheriffs 10pm press conference last night, he apologized for the delay in beginning the conf so late, and attributed it to the difficulty in trying to identify the woman’s correct name.
So, how did the police get the false name in the first place?
Posted by: Anon | Dec 3, 2015 4:34:28 PM | 9
Posted by: harry law | Dec 3, 2015 4:59:58 PM | 11
IMO , Turkey like Egypt will experience a period of disstability, will exprince various revolutionary stages and eventually become independent and out of NATO , unfortunately for that, like Iranians did, they the Turks will have to fight the westerns for many years to establish their I dependance. Is only then when they will gain legitimacy in Sunni streets to lead them.
Posted by: Kooshy | Dec 3, 2015 5:21:12 PM | 12
Cracking skulls 4 days a week in the ‘caliphate’…handful of executions…ah, sure…take a few days off in Antalya on the weekend…why not…? get some sun, have some banter with some western holiday makers…relax, recharge…back to work on Monday, mask on, knife in hand…
Posted by: MadMax2 | Dec 3, 2015 5:53:58 PM | 13
“Let’s be very clear: ISIS is not just a terrorist organization; it is a Sunni terrorist organization. That means it blocks and targets Shi’a. And that means it’s serving the interests of Turkey and Saudi Arabia – even as it poses a threat to them.” – Retired Gen. Wesley Clark
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General and retired U.S. General Wesley Clark revealed inhttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-03/general-wesley-clark-isis-serves-interests-us-allies-turkey-and-saudi-arabia
Posted by: shadyl | Dec 3, 2015 5:59:06 PM | 14
@12 ….have a few beers, ogle a few bikinis, send the bill to Qatar.
Posted by: dh | Dec 3, 2015 6:06:00 PM | 15
That is not entirely true. Gosh, I JUST wrote about this in the other thread today. It was Israel and Saudi Arabia that originally decided to use extremists as a weapon as described by Hersh’s “The Redirection” back in 2007.
Please don’t fall for simple explanations.
KSA needed Israel’s help. Israel needed KSA help. They both needed USA help to make the ‘arrangement’ work.
Israel wants to destroy Hezbollah, grab the Golan Heights, expel the Palestinians, etc. That they can ALSO paint Islam/Arabs as bloodthirsty maniacs is all the better.
This original alliance enticed other collaborators that saw opportunity for gains. For example: Erdogan had friendly relations with Assad before the Syrian Conflict and Western countries want to sell arms and get future reconstruction contracts; etc..
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Dec 3, 2015 6:29:49 PM | 16
Posted by: dumbass | Dec 3, 2015 7:04:39 PM | 18
Thanks b for two excellent commentaries, this one and the former on the San Bernardino shooting.
I seriously doubt Putin would have threatened to nuke Ankara, though I have no doubt he would do it if the situation demands, without a blink. Putin, however, is more subtle than that, and the alleged threat stands in contradiction with his statement on the address to the Russian Assembly,
Our actions will always be guided primarily by responsibility – to ourselves, to our country, to our people. We are not going to rattle the sabre.
There are many other weapons the Russians could have threatened Erdogan with, one of them is throttling the gas supply to Turkey. Erdogan’s macho-man braggadocio about Turks being “accustomed to suffering” and having lived without gas “until recently” won’t help keep Turkey warm this coming winter, and the “suffering” Erdogan wants to impose on them, contrary to his comfort, can easily be expressed in riots and general discontent.
Russia already shut down the TurkeyStream, and by blocking Erdogan’s pipe dream of cutting off a chunk of Syria, oil added, Russia significantly reduced Erdogan’s strategic options to very dangerous ones, that is, to continue to bark as loudly as he can as US/UK/NATO’s top dog in NATO’s southern flank.
Suddenly, Erdogan’s options have been reduced to enticing NATO to fight a war against Russia, one that will allow him to fulfill his ambition of providing Turkey with its own source of oil. Unfortunately, his strategic calculations were flawed from the beginning, his best bet would have been to support Assad’s “Four Seas Strategy” back in 2009. Now, Erdogan has made all his moves on the ME chessboard, the Russians put him on check, and Putin is in for the kill.
Guest77 @ #16 Agreed & suck up time for me too here.
Moon of Alabama for me is THE best blog out there covering geo-political events & the M.E. in general. There are other sources out there that are good but the speed at which “B” extensively covers every new significant event is second to none & astounds me as to how the phuk he does it. Also contributing in no small way to the blogs magnificence (Too much . . . . ?? – too bad!), is the comments section, with some very well articulated views & directions of thought, not to mention links to other lesser/little known sites & articles.
Real investigative journalism as it’s known no longer exists in the West. Or if it does, it never gets to print, yet Pulitzers are still handed for the limp impersonations of it. The prize should be going to people like “B” & if only say 10% of the English speaking world were to read this blog on a daily basis, for as little as a month or so, I believe there could be an awakening from the consumerist slumber that now engulfs much of mankind. The mankind that’s being bombed & driven from their homes on a daily basis have pretty much got the message that everything isn’t running as it should .
Again, well done & cheers
Chris in Ch-Ch
Posted by: Kiwicris | Dec 3, 2015 7:33:21 PM | 23
Haha, suck up time? (I was hoping no one would notice).
But yeah. MoA = b = MoA
Though i do enjoy my ride in the clown car
It was said of the Yankees many years ago
“When all you’ve got is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”
That policy, and their inane blather about “Statecraft” were contradictory, to say the least, and were always destined to catch up with them. Russians, on the other hand, are beginning to look like the folks who wrote the book One Hundred and One Ways To Skin a Cat. Thus Russians always seems to have sufficient viable options to ensure that they make their own “luck”.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Dec 3, 2015 7:58:02 PM | 25
Putin is in a bind and all he seems able to do about Erdogan is spout belligerent rhetoric for local consumption and impose sanctions that will raise prices for Russian consumers. The Turkish/Russian pipeline deal was already dead and the China gas deal seems stalled or stillborn. This means any curtailing or stopping of contracted gas to Turkey would be the end of Russia as a trusted supplier for anyone and there are other parties including Iran waiting to fill those needed supplies. Putin might be able to hurt Turkey by withholding gas but he would be destroying the Russian gas business.
Posted by: Wayoutwest | Dec 3, 2015 7:58:28 PM | 26
Patrick Cockburn on 2 Dec 2015 says the Syrian army has so far suffered “47,000 dead”. That’s equivalent to an average of 32 soldiers dead per day in the four years since November 2011. He doesn’t say where he got the number from. It is quite possibly correct. I guess it’s an estimate. I believe it’s not far from the truth, if not the actual truth.
For comparison’s sake, in the four years of World War One, French armies suffered about 1.1 million soldier combat deaths and 1.4 million soldier deaths from all causes, which is around 800 dead soldiers per day. The population of France in 1914 was about 42 million, which is about twice the population of Syria in 2011. Thus the Syrian army combat deaths are more than ten times smaller than French WWI combat deaths, when reput to equalize overall population sizes.
I’ve now repeatedly come across a claim that the Syrian army after four years of war is “exhausted”, meaning tired and suffering from wear and tear. ‘B’ on this board is one who has claimed it, and commentator Alexander Mercouris is another example. I believe that’s ill-informed, presumptuous, and mistaken. For one thing, this has not been an intense war (see the death counts). For another thing, the Syrian army remains pretty well equipped for fighting: the army’s weaponry has not been bigly degraded (some degradation has occurred but it’s not big). For another thing, the soldiers’ belief in the worthiness of what they’re fighting for is undiminished, and the same goes for the spirit of the supporting civilian population. For another thing, they’ve a reasonable basis for thinking they’re eventually going to win. So to repeat, the army is far from being exhausted in soldier headcount, in weapons hardware, and in fighting spirit. It is a fact that the army has underperformed, i.e. has punched with less power than what was expected of them (less than what was expected by themselves and by their supporters, including me). They’ve adjusted to it by putting the forecasted eventual victory farther out into the future. A few years ago I used to come across commentators saying the Syrian army’s underperformance was attributable to the army being inexperienced with this kind of warfare. Today other commentators are saying the army’s underperformance is attributable to exhaustion today. Both are mistaken. There are also some who say the army hasn’t underperformed, which I say is another mistaken reading of the situation.
Posted by: Ghubar Shabih | Dec 3, 2015 8:07:55 PM | 27
Is Russia presenting their case against Turkey to the UN?
Posted by: JaimeInTexas | Dec 3, 2015 8:12:32 PM | 28
Another defeat for the takfiris and their handlers: the pilgrimage of millions of Shiites to Karbala, Iraq, and Sayyeda Zainab Shrine, Damascus, for the celebration of Arbaeen, despite all the takfiri threats, is a powerful testimony of the successful 4+1 campaign, and the decreasing power of the takfiris both In Iraq and Syria.
Millions Defy Takfiri Threats, Throng Holy Karbala for Arbaeen
Sayyeda Zainab Shrine Stands Loftily in Damascus on Arbaeen Imam Hussein (P)
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 3, 2015 8:26:15 PM | 29
Putin said: “If they wanted to see us become a danger to ourselves as much as to the world, they won’t get it.” But Putin apparently contradicts that sentence in the very next paragraph when he talks about a lust for vengeance. Putin earlier said in his speech : “Allah decided to punish the ruling clique in Turkey, by depriving it of any reason or logic.” I wish somebody would convince Putin that that’s punishment enough, and that Putin should just move on to more constructive things, and forget about the pain of this pinprick.
Posted by: Ghubar Shabih | Dec 3, 2015 8:39:38 PM | 30
#28 @Ghubar – It’s one thing to say an army has underperformed when it is fighting another army under normal conditions. Fighting experienced foreign guerrilla fighters on the type of hilly terrain to which they’re accustomed on a very widely spread battlefield with booby traps and TOW missiles that largely neutralize any armor advantage the SAA has is a tough challenge. Now that they have true air support they seem to be doing better but more numbers probably will still be needed considering the huge expanse they have to clear–although the most important remaining step is cutting off Daesh’s and Al-Nusra’s continual re-supply of men, weapons, ammo, and money coming across the Turkish border. The terrorists have been able to fill in any losses while the SAA hasn’t had that luxury as draftees don’t have the lure of money and virgins so beating a path for the border has seemed a saner option for many.
Posted by: WorldBLee | Dec 3, 2015 9:03:21 PM | 31
Iran and Syria are now under the S-300 umbrella of protection. When is Iraq going to break out from under the empire hold on its sovereignty, and join the Arc of Resistance fully?
Kremlin confirms Russia started supplying S-300 missile systems to Iran
Iranian ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai late last month said his country had received the first S-300 systems
MOSCOW, December 3. /TASS/. Russia has begun the supplies of S-300 air defense systems to Iran, Russian presidential aide for military-technical cooperation Vladimir Kozhin has told TASS.
“The contract is in action. They’ve begun,” Kozhin said in reply to a question. Iranian ambassador to Russia Mehdi Sanai late last month said his country had received the first S-300 systems […]
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 3, 2015 9:03:59 PM | 32
Mutual US failures in Ukraine and Turkey
Ironically the economic collapse of Ukraine this very cold winter may do the most damage to Turkey’s economy. Russia supplies about 58% of the natural gas (30 bcm) Turkey uses each year and Iran supplies another 20%. Breaking down the Russian gas supply to Turkey about 31% is imported via West Gas through Ukraine and the remaining 27% imported via the Black Sea Blue Stream pipelines.
While the Ukraine underground natural gas storage for transport to Eastern Europe (Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia) and Turkey is almost full, it cannot currently buy any more from Russia as it is officially bankrupt. Lack of coal purchases from Russia along with “General Winter” will lead to Ukraine stealing EU gas, especially that gas destined for Turkey.
Turkey cannot import more via Iran die to pipeline capacity issues. Turkey currently imports some LNG from Nigeria and Algeria (about 6.5 bcm), although the volumes are limited by a LNG terminal capacity of 14 bcm. These terminals are not equipped with the specialized equipment to handle LNG from Qatar or the US (several years until operational in US).
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/03/turkey-still-needs-russian-gas-via-ukraine.html
Besides, LNG is not competitive with Russian piped natural gas. This did not stop Poland from taking this uneconomic option and building a LNG terminal for Qatar LNG tankers.
http://russia-insider.com/en/tumbleweed-town-kiev-post-gas- transit/ri7635
The US didn’t think this through, what can you expect with Morningstar running the US pipeline geopolitics. Unless the EU provides a lot more aid to Ukraine and Turkey both cookie bitch projects will fail. From what I can see the EU needs trillions just to settle the refugees from the wars they supported. Payback is a bitch.
Posted by: Lone Wolf | Dec 3, 2015 9:25:38 PM | 34
It seems to me all that Putin needs to do to get even is continue to destroy all of the rest of the estimated 8500 oil tanker trucks Turkey uses to ship ISIS oil to Turkey.
Just use the satellites, air recon, and drones, and see the giant convoys coming across from Turkey, and once the tail of the snake has entered Syria, destroy the whole snake. Repeat algorithm until all the convoy trucks are destroyed and the convoys stop coming.
Of course, also do the same for all “human humanitarian” and other convoys. 100% destruction of all trucks who cross the border….. especially in large convoys….
Posted by: Erik | Dec 3, 2015 9:26:29 PM | 35
Global Research makes a good point in Turkey’s Downing of Russia’s Aircraft: Was it Coordinated with the US Joint Chiefs of Staff?
Syria and its allies appear to realize that despite much more work to be done, the momentum has finally and irreversibly shifted in their favor. Seizing territory from NATO-backed terrorists and cutting off their supply lines leading in from NATO territory in Turkey will essentially end the war in favor of Damascus, Tehran, and Moscow.Attempts to provoke Russia, no matter how tempting, will be resisted by Moscow. Any retaliation Russia exacts against Turkey will be done in a matter that negates any affects carrying over to its primary mission in Syria – to win the war.
I imagine that in the days before the Russians came to help the Syrians were wondering if, with sanctions and the Great Satan & sidekicks arrayed against them, they wouldn’t eventually fail in a war of attrition.No more!
They seem rejuvenated. And with the help of Hezbollah and Iran they can now even imagine not just evicting the foreign terrorists but becoming part of the new regional equation of power and a force to be reckoned with on their own.
And all of us feel rejuvenated with them – at least I do. TIAA! There Is An Alternative. Thanks to the Syrians, the Iranians, Hezbollah … as ever, to the Palestinians … and to the Russians, for showing us all the way to self-determination : Just do it!
TIAA!
Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 9:36:17 PM | 36
@32 erik… not a bad idea.. i am sure they have been thinking of this and moved towards doing it too… the west is in cahoots with their bullshite ‘moderate’ mantra.. too much water under the bridge for things to get fixed here.. waiting for the next chapter to unfold…
Posted by: james | Dec 3, 2015 9:39:29 PM | 37
I tuned in earlier and found the ‘snap’ gone, and a broken link to the video, so I tried to replace them. b’s real original snap is now back up in place, much better than the one I found. I don’t remember the origin of the video – but I love the sound track …
Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 9:40:23 PM | 38
Yes indeed, just another bozo here, grateful for a free seat on the bus. Further, b. If you please.
Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 9:50:19 PM | 39
When are putin, iran and china going to turn the pressure up on Erdogans backers, Qatar and Saudi and on UAE?
Those three countries are the cause (via funding and ideology) of most of the world’s Sunni terrorism. There seems to be no shortage of young brain washed Sunnis willing to kill themselves for US and Israel goals. It doesn’t stop until the funding from those three countries, mainly, dries up. Saudi is also a key component in the economic war against Russia and all three are probably funding terrorism and separatism in russia.
No one has touched any of the aforementioned gulf monarchies and that tells them they can continue to get away with whatever they desire.
Posted by: Alaric | Dec 3, 2015 10:04:36 PM | 40
Yeah. Exceptional.
Posted by: jfl | Dec 3, 2015 3:35:48 PM | 1