A Most Hopeful Korean Summit With Little Chance Of Final Success

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By "b"

While some provocation engineered by the West can certainly disrupt the peacemaking process, in the final analysis, if the Korean people remain steadfast and united in pursuit of that goal, and do not allow themselves to be fooled or intimidated, they will prevail. After a century of  unspeakable suffering as a result chiefly of foreign meddling, wars, and invasions, the Korean family deserves full sovereignty, peace and reunification.

We should all salute the brave and gifted people of Korea. —PG

At a widely observed meeting today the leaders of North and South Korea took a step towards a peace agreement and maybe even a reunion of the partitioned country.

We have been here before:

Leaders of North and South Korea signed a treaty of reconciliation and nonaggression this morning, renouncing armed force against each other and saying that they would formally bring the Korean War to an end ...
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Officials on both sides described the accord as the first step toward what they term the inevitable reunification of the Korean peninsula, but they conceded that it failed to deal with some of the most potentially dangerous issues dividing North and South, including Pyongyang's race to develop an arsenal of nuclear weapons.
KOREAS SIGN PACT RENOUNCING FORCE IN A STEP TO UNITY
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With surprising speed and warmth, the presidents of North and South Korea reached a broad agreement on Wednesday to work for peace and unity on their bitterly divided peninsula, the biggest step by either side to ease tensions in 50 years.•
The general points agreed on included the need for reconciliation and unification; the establishment of peace; the commencement in August of exchange visits by members of divided families; and more cultural exchanges.
THE KOREAN BREAKTHROUGH: THE OVERVIEW; KOREAS REACH ACCORD SEEKING RECONCILIATION AFTER 50 YEARS
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Expectations for what could be achieved at the first summit meeting between the Koreas in seven years had been low. Worries that South Korea’s president  [...] would give away too much had been high.But a declaration signed Thursday [...] contained a number of specific projects that could build closer economic and security ties between the Koreas, experts said. The North, in turn, appeared to have made some modest, though important, concessions to the South.
Korean Summit Results Exceed Low Expectations

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At a historic summit meeting, the first time a North Korean leader had ever set foot in the South, the leaders vowed to negotiate a peace treaty to replace a truce that has kept an uneasy peace on the divided Korean Peninsula for more than six decades, while ridding it of nuclear weapons. A peace treaty has been one of the incentives North Korea has demanded in return for bargaining away its nuclear weapons.
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Mr. Moon also offered some capitalistic carrots during the talks, reminding Mr. Kim that South Korea had in years past promised huge investments to help improve the North’s road and train systems. Those agreements eventually collapsed as the North persisted in developing nuclear weapons.
North and South Korea Set Bold Goals: A Final Peace and No Nuclear Arms

The pieces above were published in the New York Times on December 13 1991,  June 15 2000, October 5 2007 and  April 27 2018 respectively.

It is obvious from the above quotes that the enthusiasm over such a summit is not new. What makes this one special ?

• North Korea has a new leader who has proven that he can and will deliver what he promises. Under him North Korea's nuclear program reached its desired stage and brought the U.S. to the negotiating table. But Kim Jong-un keeps his options open. The inner Korean summit today was not broadcast on North Korean TV making it easier for Kim to later disavow it.
• South Korea has a leader who is far from being a lame duck like his predecessors were at the time of their meetings with North Korean leaders. The conservatives and the U.S. aligned deep state in South Korea have been defeated in the million strong demonstrations in 2016. The current president Moon Jae-in is only at the beginning of his term and has a 75% approval rate in South Korea. His party has a strong lead over the opposition.
• North Korea is now a nuclear capable state with intercontinental missiles. It can, for the first time, keep the U.S. under a nuclear threat. This gives at least some incentive to the Trump administration to seek serious negotiations and to achieve and stick to an agreement that contains the potential danger.
• Trump needs a foreign policy success. He plans to meet Kim Jong-un in May. Finding some agreement with North Korea, even a small one, be that a restriction on North Korea's intercontinental missiles, might help him to get reelected.
• While the U.S. aim will be to 'flip' North Korea away from China and into the anti-Chinese camp, the move is likely to be unsuccessful. Last week a bus accident killed 32 Chinese 'tourists' in North Korea. Kim Jong-un personally visited the injured survivors and the apology he delivered to the Chinese ambassador was deferent. China is more self-assured than ever and open to a reunited Korea. But it will demand respect of its interests and that most U.S. troops leave the country.

Kim in China

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]hile many interests, unlike before, may now align and thus make a peace agreement more likely, spoilers remain.

The full text of the joint Panmunjeom Declaration for Peace, Prosperity and Unification of the Korean Peninsula is not much different than the previous summit declarations. But one of the agreed upon points is a stumble stone as it contradicts the Trump's administration aim of a unilateral de-nuclearization of North Korea:

South and North Korea agreed to carry out disarmament in a phased manner, as military tension is alleviated and substantial progress is made in military confidence-building.

A "phased manner" means that a significant number of U.S. troops will have to leave South Korea before the north gives up any significant nuclear capability.

(If there is a chance of an eventual reunion of north and south, a united Korea may well prefer to keep some nuclear weapons. There is nuclear armed China to the north and there is the former colonial overlord Japan which has the materials and capabilities to produce its own nuclear weapons over a long weekend or so.)

There are least three additional potential spoilers:

• Japan's hawkish Prime Minister Abe will dislike any agreement in favor of Korea. The Korean people hate Japan and a united Korea would be a strong political, economical and military competitor.
• John Bolton, Trump's national security advisor, prefers violent 'regime change' over any agreement with the north. He supports negotiations, which he believes will fail, only as a necessary prelude to war.
• The U.S. military and its industrial complex will want to keep its forces in Korea and the lucrative hostile position towards China.

All three of these players have the capability to arrange false flag events that could sabotage any progress.

There is new momentum in Korea that makes a peace agreement or even a reunion more possible than ever before. But the interests of the various foreign parties can not be satisfied sufficiently to allow for a real break through.

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