Together Pompeo's demands ask for a wholesale change of Iran's national character and policies. It is apparently supposed to become Lichtenstein.
The Trump administration made it perfectly clear today that it wants regime change in Iran by whatever means it has.
In a well promoted speech at the Heritage Foundation Secretary of State Pompeo laid out twelve demands towards Iran. He threatened the "strongest sanctions in history" if those demands were not fulfilled.
But the demands do not make sense. They only demonstrate the incompetence of the Trump administration. The means the Trump administration laid out to achieve its aims are not realistic and, even if they were implementable, insufficient to achieve the desired results.
Iran is asked to stop all uranium enrichment. Stopping enrichment is a no-go for Iran. The program has wide support in Iranian politics as it is seen as an attribute of its sovereignty.
Pompeo demands that Iran close its heavy water reactor. Iran can not close its heavy water reactor. It does not have one. The one it was building in Arak was disabled under the nuclear agreement (JCPOA). Concrete was poured into its core under supervision of IAEA inspectors. How can the Secretary of State of the United States make such a fact-free demand in a prepared speech?
Another demand is that Iran end its support for the Palestinian resistance. This is also a no-go for Iran as long as the Zionist occupation of Palestine continues. There is a demand that Iran do not develop "nuclear capable" missiles. Iran had already committed to that under the JCPOA Trump killed. Another demand is that Iran pulls back all troops from Syria,and ends all interference in Iraq, Yemen, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
Together these demands ask for a wholesale change of Iran's national character and policies. It is apparently supposed to become Lichtenstein.
The Trump administration has no way to achieve that goal.
With painstaking work the Obama administration managed to get much of the world to agree to sanctions on Iran. It was possible because the other countries trusted Obama's assurances that he would keep his side of the deal and seriously negotiate. International unity and trust was necessary to achieve the nuclear agreement.
Now Trump wants much more but he has no united international front behind him. No one trusts his word. The Europeans are enraged that Trump s threatens them with secondary sanctions if they stick to the agreement they signed and continue to deal with Iran. While they may eventually fold and to some extend stop dealing with Iran, they will also try to circumvent those unilateral U.S. sanctions.
Neither China nor Russia nor India will stop doing business with Iran. For them the unilateral U.S. sanctions are opening new markets. The French oil company Total announced that it will stop the development of Iran's South Pars gas field to avoid secondary U.S. sanctions on its other interests. China said "thank you" and took over the work. Russia will likewise jump in where it can. Its agricultural industry will deliver whatever food stuff Iran wants and needs. It will continue to sell weapons to Iran. China, India and others will continue to buy Iranian oil.
The Trump administration will cause some economic pain. It will also make the U.S. and Europe weaker and Russia and China stronger. The threat of secondary sanctions will eventually lead to the creation of a sanction-secure parallel global economy. The SWIFT banking information exchange which routes international payments between banks can be replaced by country to country systems that do not depend an sanctionable institutions. The U.S. dollar as a universal exchange medium can be avoided by using other currencies or barter. The nonsensical use of economic and financial sanction will end up destroying the U.S. ability to use them as a tool of foreign policy.
The Pompeo speech will unite the people in Iran. The moderate neoliberals around the current president Rouhani will join the nationalist hardliners in their resistance. The demands go way beyond what any Iranian government could concede. An Iran in which the will of its people counts will never agree to them.
The only way the Trump administration could possibly reach its aims is by regime change. But regime change has already been tried in the current Iran and it failed. The "green revolution" was strongly supported by Obama. But it was easily derailed and failed. Various assassination campaigns within Iran did not change its policies. Iran's size and geography make a direct military campaign like in Libya impossible. Iran can retaliate against any strike by hitting U.S. interests in the Gulf.
The U.S. can and likely will continue to attack Iranian forces and interests in Syria and elsewhere. Its military will hassle Iran in the Gulf. The CIA will try to fuel internal Iranian unrest. Mounting sanctions will damage the Iranian economy. But none of this can change Iran's national spirit as expressed in its foreign policy.
A year or two from now the Trump administration will find that its sanction campaign failed. There will be a push for a direct military attack on Iran. But plans for such an attack were also made under George W. Bush. Back then the Pentagon advised that such a war would cause it very serious losses and was still likely to fail. I therefore doubt that it will ever happen.
What else then is there that the Trump administration can do when its announced Plan A has failed?
Posted by b on May 21, 2018 at 02:21 PM | Permalink
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Comments
ORIGINAL COMMENTS SELECTED FOR THEIR INTELLIGENCE
The US is running up against the limits of what being the World's bullt can achieve. It would find it much more productive to make friends and partners but that wouldn't suit one ally in particular who is an even bigger bully.
Posted by: JohninMK | May 21, 2018 2:42:01 PM | 1
Ooops, typo, "World's biggest bully"
Posted by: JohninMK | May 21, 2018 2:42:58 PM | 2
"Iran had already committed to that under the JCPOA Trump killed".
With respect, Mr Trump did not "kill" the JCPOA. He could not do that, as the USA was only one party to the agreement. What he has tried to do is to withdraw unilaterally, refusing to carry out the USA's obligations. That leaves Iran and the other parties to carry on as before.
All that has been accomplished is to demonstrate that the US government's word is worth nothing - if there was any single person in the world who had not already noticed that - and to raise the question: what on earth has Iran and its government to do with the USA?
Posted by: Tom Welsh | May 21, 2018 2:47:00 PM | 3
The odious Pompeo's ultimatum, or ukase, or bucket list for Iran is so irrational and unworkable on its face that either: 1) the stewards of the declining US/Western hegemon are consumed by delusional exceptionalist madness, or 2) this is another ploy, gimmick, "sales"/marketing tactic.
These options may not be mutually exclusive; this appallingly bumptious, imperious tone may be part of the well-known foreign-policy "Madman" strategy, in which heads of state and high-ranking government officials deliberately employ the rhetoric of reckless berserkers to intimidate and frighten both allies and enemies alike.
It resonates with the approach to Syria and Russia: keep "poking" target governments with vicious, insulting provocations in hopes of triggering an intemperate response.
Posted by: Ort | May 21, 2018 2:48:42 PM | 4
Pompeo should read what happened when Austria-Hungary tried to bully Serbia in mid-1914 with a similar ultimatum. Hint: Serbia refused and it didn't go well for either side. The US problem is that Iran is more powerful than Serbia was and is backed by a more powerful Russia than the 1914 one.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 21, 2018 3:08:47 PM | 5
I don't know the percentage of numbskulls, but it is a large one, that believes that Obama gave Iran $150 billion as a gift. Why wouldn't they believe that. It was all over the news and it is still on the internet tubes.
These numbskulls really enjoy the tough talking cowboy style. Gets them all excited and MAGA while their social security gets robbed.
Perhaps the most important thing to "appreciate" is that our "representatives" know with great certainty that they can tell lies that will be accepted as truth. And no one in the mainstream will dispute them.
Posted by: fastfreddy | May 21, 2018 3:27:57 PM | 6
Pompeo is now in competition with Nikki Haley for the best Trump and Israel's ass licker. Threats after threats...
Let's see what Nikki will add to the Pompeo's list. She must to keep up her position.
The USA is becoming a laughing stock for the world, and together with Netanyahu and Bolton its leaders are perceived as inept but dangerous clowns.
On wonders if they will survive more than a year in their job
Posted by: Virgile | May 21, 2018 3:32:27 PM | 7
The only thing the US has in its favor--at least in the short term, before unilateral sanctions push more countries to abandon the petro-dollar--is its ability to inflict massive harm on other countries and companies through sanctions. The US can't change Iran's behavior, but they can punish a lot of EU companies who do business in Iran in the meantime.
Posted by: worldblee | May 21, 2018 3:33:31 PM | 8
Perhaps most obviously hypocritical section of Pompeo's speech, per the RT report on the Heritage event:
Speaking directly to the Iranian people, Pompeo claimed that “President [Hassan] Rouhani and Foreign Minister [Javad] Zarif… are your elected leaders. Are they not the most responsible for your economic struggles?" He added: “The United States believes you deserve better.”
Pompeo wants to pretend as though the US cares about the Iranian people by telling them that they deserve better leaders...than those the *Iranian people themselves* have "elected"! Democracy is only valid when its results align with US interests, but any form of government is also valid when its leaders do the bidding of US interests. It's so patently stupid I can't believe the silly "address to the people" schtick was even included at all.
Posted by: WJ | May 21, 2018 3:42:48 PM | 9
Thank god these Netanyahu ass kissers only have two years left. I sincerely doubt that trump will be re-elected. Let’s hope trump drives Europe to a more independent foreign policy. I suspect Europe will resist for at least a short period.
Posted by: Alaric | May 21, 2018 3:43:16 PM | 10
Such a stance is doomed to failure from the outset. If Trump were an Iranian asset bent on isolating and sabotaging the US, he wouldn't conduct himself much differently. Maybe that's it, maybe the mullahs promised him a bag of gold and a temporary marriage.
Posted by: dervish | May 21, 2018 3:46:44 PM | 11
What do you make of Elijah's latest column?
Posted by: CuChulainn | May 21, 2018 3:47:43 PM | 12
Today's reportage on Pompeo's list of demands appears quite different than his earlier postures of being willing to negotiate a broadening out of JCPOA strictures. Also, it would appear that he is far more belligerent, following the Israeli, Saudi, Kushner/Adelsen script. Could this be attributable Rouhani's arrival in New York on UN business, alongside the arrival of the European delegation to discuss these issues with the current administration?
Apparently Pompeo and Mninuchin are unaware that both China and the USSR are building (if not already moving into place), alternatives to the SWIFT system, at which time US sanctions will be far less effective. The chronic bullying with sanctions (Syria, Yemen, Iran, USSR, Venezuela) is only accelerating movement to the petro-yuan. We are simply accelerating a process of Eurasian integration wherein the US is financially isolated, with country after country dumping our Treasuries after which time, the only route for the US is currency devaluation given past fiscal imprudence.
This is an administration which has written a play book for amplifying every weakness of the US while at the same time, antagonizing friends and enemies both. Trump focusses on Jerusalem while Washington burns with corruption, ill fated and destructive foreign and domestic policies.
Posted by: abierno | May 21, 2018 3:48:03 PM | 13
Dear Iranian People: The United States wants to help you. The same way it is helping Syria. It would really love to help you the same way it helped Iraq and Libya. That is the "deluxe help package".
Posted by: fastfreddy | May 21, 2018 3:53:04 PM | 14
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY “B”
The US is running up against the limits of what being the World's bullt can achieve. It would find it much more productive to make friends and partners but that wouldn't suit one ally in particular who is an even bigger bully.
Posted by: JohninMK | May 21, 2018 2:42:01 PM | 1
Ooops, typo, "World's biggest bully"
Posted by: JohninMK | May 21, 2018 2:42:58 PM | 2
"Iran had already committed to that under the JCPOA Trump killed".
With respect, Mr Trump did not "kill" the JCPOA. He could not do that, as the USA was only one party to the agreement. What he has tried to do is to withdraw unilaterally, refusing to carry out the USA's obligations. That leaves Iran and the other parties to carry on as before.
All that has been accomplished is to demonstrate that the US government's word is worth nothing - if there was any single person in the world who had not already noticed that - and to raise the question: what on earth has Iran and its government to do with the USA?
Posted by: Tom Welsh | May 21, 2018 2:47:00 PM | 3
The odious Pompeo's ultimatum, or ukase, or bucket list for Iran is so irrational and unworkable on its face that either: 1) the stewards of the declining US/Western hegemon are consumed by delusional exceptionalist madness, or 2) this is another ploy, gimmick, "sales"/marketing tactic.
These options may not be mutually exclusive; this appallingly bumptious, imperious tone may be part of the well-known foreign-policy "Madman" strategy, in which heads of state and high-ranking government officials deliberately employ the rhetoric of reckless berserkers to intimidate and frighten both allies and enemies alike.
It resonates with the approach to Syria and Russia: keep "poking" target governments with vicious, insulting provocations in hopes of triggering an intemperate response.
Posted by: Ort | May 21, 2018 2:48:42 PM | 4
Pompeo should read what happened when Austria-Hungary tried to bully Serbia in mid-1914 with a similar ultimatum. Hint: Serbia refused and it didn't go well for either side. The US problem is that Iran is more powerful than Serbia was and is backed by a more powerful Russia than the 1914 one.
Posted by: Clueless Joe | May 21, 2018 3:08:47 PM | 5
I don't know the percentage of numbskulls, but it is a large one, that believes that Obama gave Iran $150 billion as a gift. Why wouldn't they believe that. It was all over the news and it is still on the internet tubes.
These numbskulls really enjoy the tough talking cowboy style. Gets them all excited and MAGA while their social security gets robbed.
Perhaps the most important thing to "appreciate" is that our "representatives" know with great certainty that they can tell lies that will be accepted as truth. And no one in the mainstream will dispute them.
Posted by: fastfreddy | May 21, 2018 3:27:57 PM | 6
Let's see what Nikki will add to the Pompeo's list. She must to keep up her position.
The USA is becoming a laughing stock for the world, and together with Netanyahu and Bolton its leaders are perceived as inept but dangerous clowns.
On wonders if they will survive more than a year in their job
Posted by: Virgile | May 21, 2018 3:32:27 PM | 7
The only thing the US has in its favor--at least in the short term, before unilateral sanctions push more countries to abandon the petro-dollar--is its ability to inflict massive harm on other countries and companies through sanctions. The US can't change Iran's behavior, but they can punish a lot of EU companies who do business in Iran in the meantime.
Posted by: worldblee | May 21, 2018 3:33:31 PM | 8
Perhaps most obviously hypocritical section of Pompeo's speech, per the RT report on the Heritage event:
Speaking directly to the Iranian people, Pompeo claimed that “President [Hassan] Rouhani and Foreign Minister [Javad] Zarif… are your elected leaders. Are they not the most responsible for your economic struggles?" He added: “The United States believes you deserve better.”
Pompeo wants to pretend as though the US cares about the Iranian people by telling them that they deserve better leaders...than those the *Iranian people themselves* have "elected"! Democracy is only valid when its results align with US interests, but any form of government is also valid when its leaders do the bidding of US interests. It's so patently stupid I can't believe the silly "address to the people" schtick was even included at all.
Posted by: WJ | May 21, 2018 3:42:48 PM | 9
Thank god these Netanyahu ass kissers only have two years left. I sincerely doubt that trump will be re-elected. Let’s hope trump drives Europe to a more independent foreign policy. I suspect Europe will resist for at least a short period.
Posted by: Alaric | May 21, 2018 3:43:16 PM | 10
Such a stance is doomed to failure from the outset. If Trump were an Iranian asset bent on isolating and sabotaging the US, he wouldn't conduct himself much differently. Maybe that's it, maybe the mullahs promised him a bag of gold and a temporary marriage.
Posted by: dervish | May 21, 2018 3:46:44 PM | 11
What do you make of Elijah's latest column?
Posted by: CuChulainn | May 21, 2018 3:47:43 PM | 12
Today's reportage on Pompeo's list of demands appears quite different than his earlier postures of being willing to negotiate a broadening out of JCPOA strictures. Also, it would appear that he is far more belligerent, following the Israeli, Saudi, Kushner/Adelsen script. Could this be attributable Rouhani's arrival in New York on UN business, alongside the arrival of the European delegation to discuss these issues with the current administration?
Apparently Pompeo and Mninuchin are unaware that both China and the USSR are building (if not already moving into place), alternatives to the SWIFT system, at which time US sanctions will be far less effective. The chronic bullying with sanctions (Syria, Yemen, Iran, USSR, Venezuela) is only accelerating movement to the petro-yuan. We are simply accelerating a process of Eurasian integration wherein the US is financially isolated, with country after country dumping our Treasuries after which time, the only route for the US is currency devaluation given past fiscal imprudence.
This is an administration which has written a play book for amplifying every weakness of the US while at the same time, antagonizing friends and enemies both. Trump focusses on Jerusalem while Washington burns with corruption, ill fated and destructive foreign and domestic policies.
Posted by: abierno | May 21, 2018 3:48:03 PM | 13
Dear Iranian People: The United States wants to help you. The same way it is helping Syria. It would really love to help you the same way it helped Iraq and Libya. That is the "deluxe help package".
Posted by: fastfreddy | May 21, 2018 3:53:04 PM | 14