DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
What does he really want? And does he know how to get there?
[dropcap]W[/dropcap]hen President Trump ignored bad advice he enabled progress in Syria. Unfortunately Trump is back at listening to the bad advice some State Department people are giving him:
President Donald Trump says he wants to “end endless wars.” But the counter-Iran, counter-Russia hawks on his national security team are planning to sneak in a long-term U.S. military presence in southeast Syria. And their plans may have been in the works for a while.
With U.S. forces opening the gates for Turkey to take over northeast Syria, Trump administration officials are now drawing up plans to keep several hundred U.S. troops alongside Arab rebel groups in the country’s oil-rich southeast. Trump has said, “we have secured the oil.” And Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) diplomats have said they’re willingto work with such a plan.
James Jeffrey and Mike Pompeo: Two establishment scumbags in the same pod. Jeffrey (L) is a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a member of the CIA External Advisory Board, a member of the American Council on Germany, and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Nothing good can ever come from these guys, and nothing will.
The National Interest has learned that the Trump administration’s anti-ISIS team, led by Ambassador James Jeffrey, has floated the idea of a counter-Iran presence in Deir ez-Zor for some time now.
“Every day, the [U.S.-led] coalition has been very strong against [Syrian ruler] Assad,” said Omar Abu Layla, CEO of Deirezzor24, who said that he has seen U.S. helicopters and F-35 fighter jets increase their presence against Iranian-backed forces in the region.
Abu Layla told the National Interest that he spoke to Jeffrey’s team three or four months ago. “They promised, ‘we will not leave Syria before we kick Iran out of Syria,’” he claimed. “They will not leave our province easily.”
While James Jeffrey pushes the anti-Iran nonsense Trump dreams of winning a Nobel Peace Prize by facilitating a deal between Turkey and the Kurds:
In the infamous “undiplomatic” letter to Erdogan a few days ago, Trump had voiced an audacious idea that Gen. Mazloum could be a potential negotiator with Erdogan. To quote Trump, “General Mazloum is willing to negotiate with you (Erdogan), and he is willing to make concessions that they would never have made in the past. I am confidentially enclosing a copy of his letter to me, just received.”
Yet, General Mazloum is Turkey’s most wanted terrorist who worked in the ranks of the separatist PKK for nearly 3 decades and it is necessary to connect some dots at this point.
...
Gen. Mazloum is likely to visit Washington in a near future; so is Erdogan. Trump is promoting Kurdish reconciliation with Turkey. The last fortnight’s developments on the diplomatic front have removed the single biggest source of tension in the US-Turkey relations — US’ alliance with YPG and the presence of Kurdish fighters along Syria’s border with Turkey.
When one combines the two items one can understand the thinking behind this otherwise idiotic tweet:
Donald J. Trump - @realDonaldTrump - 17:48 UTC · Oct 24, 2019
I really enjoyed my conversation with General @MazloumAbdi. He appreciates what we have done, and I appreciate what the Kurds have done. Perhaps it is time for the Kurds to start heading to the Oil Region!
The Kurds live in the northern part of east Syria. The oilfields are in the eastern part of Deir Ezzor governorate, 300 kilometers south of the Kurdish areas. The oil fields lie in an area that has a 100% Arabic population and Kurds are generally not welcome there. But the U.S. does not want to send enough troops to occupy the oil fields. It needs a proxy force it can trust.
Should the U.S. try occupy the oil fields area with the help of a Kurdish militia the local Arabs will immediately (re-)convert to ISIS and fight the occupiers of their land.
Joshua Landis @joshua_landis - 18:20 UTC · Oct 24, 2019
9. Iran and Russia are rivals of the US, but any effort by Washington to undermine their efforts to bring stability to NE Syria will only help ISIS & extremist groups. If the US keeps troops in the area, takes oil wells, or resists the transition of authority, it will serve ISIS.
I had some hope that Trump had recognized that James Jeffrey was working against his effort the pull U.S. troops out of Syria. Jeffrey should have been fired long ago. Instead it seems that Trump is still listening to him.
Meanwhile the Kurds again prove their utter lack of political sensibility. The State Department insulted them:
A State Department official broke a pencil and screamed at the Syrian Kurdish delegation during a dramatic breakdown of relations between the United States and the Syrian Kurds. The high-tension moment in September highlights the diplomatic problems plaguing the Trump administration ..
The U.S. envoys lied to them and Trump betrayed them. But they still believe that they can make deals on both sides of the Syria conflict.
Ali @CoolHuh_ - 19:39 UTC · Oct 24, 2019
SDF in last 24 hour:
Want SAA to defend border
No withdrawing of their mercenaries
Refuse Russian offer
Ask Russia to pressure Syrian gov
Want "special section" in SAA
Want US illegal presence in Syria
Want international forcesSDF, Are you high?
The Syrian government and the Russian military must tell the PKK-Kurds that they can not play on both sides of the game. No Syrian or Russian soldier shall risk their life to secure and defend the Kurdish majority areas against a Turkish invasion while the Kurds help the U.S. to occupy and steal Syrian oil fields. Either they submit to the Syrian government and end their relations with the U.S. or they shall have to confront a Turkish invasion of their northern areas.
"General" Mazloum Abdi must be told in very clear words that there is no other chance for the Kurds and for himself to survive.
Posted by b on October 24, 2019 at 18:18 UTC | Permalink
Selected Comments
kurds and US are great allies because neither of them ever keep their word or any of their treaties they agreed to. Being such close relatives of duplicity, not surprised at either's behaviour.
Posted by: Igor Bundy | Oct 24 2019 18:44 utc | 2
Why haven't the SAA taken control of Deir-Ezzor and established at least a minimal presence on the east bank of the Euphrates there?
Posted by: Julian Bridal | Oct 24 2019 18:51 utc | 3
“The Syrian government and the Russian military must tell the PKK-Kurds that they can not play on both sides of the game. No Syrian or Russian soldier shall risk their life to secure and defend the Kurdish majority areas against a Turkish invasion while the Kurds help the U.S. to occupy and steal Syrian oil fields.”
If Syria is willing to effectively cede its eastern territory to Turkey, then they can definitely take that line, and let things fall where they may. But if the Turkish occupation will be harder to dislodge in the long term than the YPG and the U.S., then in doing so Damascus might be cutting off its nose to spite its face.
A tricky situation.
Posted by: David G | Oct 24 2019 18:53 utc | 4
Perhaps Trump is trying to do the right thing as b has pointed out. Who knows? But, Everything points to the contrary. At the very least, his inability to put a team around him that allows for his policy to be. Implemented puts his leadership in question. Everything we see is the leftover Zionist plan to sow chaos and division in order to get to their lifelong dream of attacking Iran.
As Quintes Arias put it, these idiots should know when they have been conquered. But they refuse and continue to throw stones at every turn with Trump being a mere spectator.
Unless every Jew and/or Zionist is purged from White House, Trump’s plans have no hope of success. And of course we know that is an impossibility.
Posted by: Alpi | Oct 24 2019 18:54 utc | 5
Now that the Kurds are no longer facing an immediate an existential threat, they become susceptible to the blandishments of their American fair-weather friends.
Posted by: Sid Finster | Oct 24 2019 19:00 utc | 6
it seems possible this is going according to plan...chaos. trump may've come to believe that by freeing isis from prison he can have them prevent syria from ever regaining its oil. as well america can then along with israel concentrate on preparing for war with iran. set up troops in iraq & begin planning for war after the election. leaving syria much as america & israel wants...chaotic, devastated & struggling to fend off head choppers. trump & his 'advisors' may not fully believe how committed china is to iran or how serious putin is about syria---that may prove a fatal miscalculation. i believe iran, syria, russia & china & possibly iraq all aware of this possibility/probability & see what's going on as merely a precursor to the real battle. something they've been waiting for & preparing for. as always it's possible turkey is still uncommitted & hoping to play both sides until the winner (s) are obvious. i'm hesitant to as some have called this turn of events as a win but simply a signal stage before the undeclared war is obviously war. i hope i am wrong.
Posted by: emersonreturn | Oct 24 2019 19:12 utc | 7
The Kurks are just posturing in hopes that Israel will get back into the equation. It may be their best hand at the moment.
Posted by: ng | Oct 24 2019 19:13 utc | 8
Patrick Armstrong has a new one out at SST:
RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 OCTOBER 2019 by Patrick Armstrong
Posted by: Bemildred | Oct 24 2019 19:48 utc | 9
I had some hope that Trump had recognized that James Jeffrey was working against his effort the pull U.S. troops out of Syria. Jeffrey should have been fired long ago. Instead it seems that Trump is still listening to him.
Trump has always had a mutant ability to attract people’s unmerited confidence, and it’s still going strong.
From New York City preservationists who believed developer Trump when he said he would save architectural details of the Bonwit Teller building he demolished in 1980 to make room for the original Trump Tower, to everyone earnestly hoping candidate/president Trump was serious about wanting the U.S. to step back from empire – with many, many busted creditors, stiffed tradesman, and traduced fellow USFL team owners in between – they are all betrayed.
Moreover, Trump craves the resulting anger and recrimination since, in his brutally zero-sum view of every human interaction, other people’s dismay is a signal to him that he is the winner. With his stunted cognitive abilities, not understanding the substance of the various “deals” he participates in, his only reliable indicators of success are money and others’ misery.
Congratulations, b, on your admission to this numerous – if not exactly illustrious – fellowship.
Posted by: David G | Oct 24 2019 19:55 utc | 10
"But the U.S. does not want to send enough troops to occupy the oil fields. It needs a proxy force it can trust."
That has been my thought the last couple of days, with a slight difference. US wants a Tanf type set up with a US base in there somewhere but a proxy force that occupies the oilfields.
Trump has long had thoughts on "taking the oil" going back to at least 2016. Trump was first to mention anything on securing the oil and now the underlings have to run around making that work.
One of the wins for Trump was in using the oilfields to offset the outrage that US was pulling out of Syria.
Esper has said first stage of the pullout does not include the oilfields. That would be a minimum of two weeks and the situation would be looked at. Trump will try and hold enough ground to cut the oil line that runs from northeast Syria back to west Syria.
On the forces that pulled back to Iraq, Iraq is going through the US to try and get them out. Esper says they are just staying in Iraq until US arranges transport for them.
Those forces are in Iraq to stay. Trump is not about bringing troops home. He does want to end the useless and purposeless endless wars that do not pay, and reposition those forces for something that does pay.
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 24 2019 19:58 utc | 11
This is a junk map from a junk twitter account but it does show where I think the new US front lines will be. This would cut the oil line running from north east Syria.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EHpZtsuWoAEnSgl.jpg:large
Posted by: Peter AU 1 | Oct 24 2019 20:06 utc | 12
Thanks for the posting b and your evolving understanding about Trump's actions and words
I don't see this situation being unresolved through the US elections a year from now. With the US pullout from Norther Syria, it seems to be a matter of weeks before enough pressure can be made on the Deir az_Zur oilfields with Russian air defense and cover. The momentum continues to be on the side of Syria to restore its sovereign borders, IMO
Posted by: psychohistorian | Oct 24 2019 20:10 utc | 13
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
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When you see this development, you understand that there is no way that Trump or any of the Americans were included in talking through the potential deal that has emerged between the Kurds and the SAA, Russia and Turkey, etc. No, every sane negotiator knows that the Americans cannot be trusted, and that in negotiations they are a giant sieve working against each other. Count on Trump being out of the loop completely on any complex negotiations. Sure, at the time of the Turkish 'incursion' Trump may have heard that it would be a good idea to send Pence to Erdogan - and that idea was likely from the Russians and already vetted with the Turks: 'give him a little win and he'll be delirious'. It has all the markings of smart diplomacy - ie the Russians, Lavrov: he knows you never get real peace if you humiliate one side.
Here again, these oilfields issues will be solved by the patient Russians.
Posted by: Josh | Oct 24 2019 18:35 utc | 1