Iranian Armed Forces Say They Inadvertently Shot Down The Ukrainian Plane – Updated
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
by "b", with select commentary
Iranian official admitting fatal error.
Updated below
[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he Iranian Armed Forces General Staff just admitted (in Farsi, English translation) that its air defenses inadvertently shot down the Ukrainian flight PS 752 shortly after it took off on January 8 in Tehran :
2- In early hours after the missile attack [on US’ Ain al-Assad base in Iraq], the military flights of the US’ terrorist forces had increased around the country. The Iranian defence units received news of witnessing flying targets moving towards Iran’s strategic centres, and then several targets were observed in some [Iranian] radars, which incited further sensitivity at the Air Defence units.
3- Under such sensitive and critical circumstances, the Ukrainian airline’s Flight PS752 took off from Imam Khomeini Airport, and when turning around, it approached a sensitive military site of the IRGC, taking the shape and altitude of a hostile target. In such conditions, due to human error and in an unintentional move, the airplane was hit [by the Air Defence], which caused the martyrdom of a number of our compatriots and the deaths of several foreign nationals.
4- The General Staff of the Armed Forces offers condolences and expresses sympathy with the bereaved families of the Iranian and foreign victims, and apologizes for the human error. It also gives full assurances that it will make major revision in the operational procedures of its armed forces in order to make impossible the recurrence of such errors. It will also immediately hand over the culprits to the Judicial Organization of the Armed Forces for prosecution.
The Pentagon had claimed that Iran shot down the airliner but the evidence it presented was flimsy and not sufficient, as the U.S. tends to spread disinformation about Iran.
It is welcome that the Iranian forces come clean about the incident.
That is not a given in such cases.
After the USS Vincennes in 1988 had shot down Iran Air Flight 655 and killed 290 people, including many children, the U.S. government denied any culpability. George H. W. Bush, the vice president of the United States at the time, commented: "I will never apologize for the United States – I don't care what the facts are... I'm not an apologize-for-America kind of guy." Despite its "error" the crew was given medals and the captain was even awarded a Legion of Merit "for exceptionally meritorious conduct in the performance of outstanding service as commanding officer ...".
We can be assured by the statement of Iran's president that the responsible Iranian officer will receive no such a reward:
Hassan Rouhani @HassanRouhani - 4:43 UTC · 11 Jan 2020
Armed Forces’ internal investigation has concluded that regrettably missiles fired due to human error caused the horrific crash of the Ukrainian plane & death of 176 innocent people.
Investigations continue to identify & prosecute this great tragedy & unforgivable mistake. #PS752The Islamic Republic of Iran deeply regrets this disastrous mistake.
My thoughts and prayers go to all the mourning families. I offer my sincerest condolences.
Let us also not forget that the root cause of the accident was an assassination campaign which the U.S. launched against foreign military commanders of a country with which it is not at war:
On the day U.S. forces killed Soleimani, they launched another secret operation targeting a senior Iranian official in Yemen
The strike targeting Abdul Reza Shahlai, a financier and key commander of Iran’s elite Quds Force who has been active in Yemen, did not result in his death, according to four U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
The U.S. executed a long planned campaign against several Iranian officers in third countries without any reasonable justification:
“There is no doubt that there were a series of imminent attacks being plotted by Qasem Soleimani,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Friday. “We don’t know precisely when and we don’t know precisely where, but it was real.” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper have likewise supported the case for an imminent plot.
“Did it exactly say who, what, when, where? No,” Milley told reporters this week. “But he was planning, coordinating and synchronizing significant combat operations against U.S. military forces in the region, and it was imminent.”
Can there be any "imminent threat" when one does not know the "who, what, when, where" of the threat? Why would killing a high officer prevent the execution of such a threat? The excuse is obviously bullshit.
It was the U.S. assassination of the Iraqi and Iranian national heroes Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes and Major General Qassem Suleimani that led to the high alarm and nervousness which, in the end, killed 176 passengers and crew on board of flight PS 752.
Iran's foreign minister is right to point that out:
Javad Zarif @JZarif - 4:05 UTC · 11 Jan 2020
A sad day. Preliminary conclusions of internal investigation by Armed Forces:
Human error at time of crisis caused by US adventurism led to disaster
Our profound regrets, apologies and condolences to our people, to the families of all victims, and to other affected nations.
The death of the people on flight PS 752 is the tragic outcome of unreasonable U.S. aggression.
Update 11:00 UTC
The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps IRGC's Aerospace Commander Amir-Ali Hajizadeh just gave press conference. It was an IRGC air defense unit that shot the plane down.
Iran Front Page journalist Reza Khaasteh translated on Twitter:
IRGC Aerospace Cmdr: I wish I was dead and such an incident hadn't happened. We in IRGC accept all the responsibility, and are ready to implement any decision made by the Establishment.
IRGC Aerospace Cmdr: I was in the country's west following attacks on US base in Iraq when I heard the news. We sacrificed our lives for our people for a lifetime, and now we're trading our reputation with God (disgracing ourselves) and appear in front of the camera to explain.
IRGC Aerospace Cmdr says we had requested the establishment of a no-fly zone given the war situation. But it was not approved for certain considerations.
Revision: IRGC Aerospace Cmdr says Air Defence operator sent a message to his commanders; but after he didn't receive any response for 10 seconds, he decided to shoot it down.
Video of IRGC Aerospace Cmdr. showing the place on map where the Ukrainian plane was shot down by the air defence.
IRGC Aerospace Cmdr: I informed Iranian officials on Wednesday morning, and said we speculate our own passenger plane has been shot down. But the General Staff of Armed Forces quarantined all those who knew about it, and decided to declare it later.
IRGC Aerospace Cmdr.: The officials, including Aviation authorities, who kept denying the missile hit, are not guilty. They made those remarks based on what they knew. We are to blame for everything.
IRGC Aerospace Cmdr.: We were at that time ready for an all-out war with US. We had reports of cruise missiles fired at Iran. It was an individual's error that caused this tragedy.
What I find unexplainable is that the crew of Tor M-1 air defense system did not really consider that the Tehran airport was operating and that civil traffic was likely. More the ten planes had already taken off that before the Ukrainian flight took to the air. The accident happened shortly after 6:00 am local time. Pure speculation: I suspect that a crew change has happened at 6:00 am and that the overnight crew did not really brief the one taking over.
Another leak (ukr) from the Ukrainian side of the investigation gives some hints on how the plane came down (machine translation):
"We took up the restoration of fragments of the aircraft. It was necessary to determine how these pieces of metal dumped into a huge pile should be interconnected.
The intrigue remained until late. The fact is that there were no damages on most parts of the aircraft. There was no explosion and no fire in the engines or on the wings. It is possible that the plane could fall almost intact. Unlike the remains of the Boeing MN-17, there were no immediately visible signs of defeat by combat elements on the fuselage and wings. A lot of damage to the case is the result of a fall. But after laying out all the fragments of the aircraft, it became obvious that the bottom of the cockpit was missing.
Among the wreckage, fragments of the upper part of the cabin were identified. And then the find finally took place - at about 22 hours. On a fragment of the cockpit, we found holes in the damaging elements of the warhead of the rocket, which pierced the skin. We found! For the first time, direct evidence appeared in this case, which made it possible to prove what caused the death of the aircraft. For us it was a turning point.
So what we now understand:
Russian anti-aircraft missile "Tor" hit the liner in the lower part of the front of the fuselage, directly under the cockpit.
A direct hit and the cabin flared up inside. Instantly turned off the transponder of the aircraft, which gives signals about the flight. Instantly lost contact.
While there is no data, one or two missiles have caused such damage. It is possible that the second missile also hit the fuselage from below close to the first. But all this remains to be clarified.
We continue to lay out fragments of the aircraft until the complete collection of all surviving parts.
We expect that today we will gain access to all objective control data.
In cooperation with Iranian colleagues, we get the impression that those who contact us sincerely want to help themselves and figure it out, in general, there are no problems. Let's hope that such a mood and working contacts remain with us now."
Posted by b on January 11, 2020 at 4:21 UTC | Permalink
Tragic.
Kudos to Iran for immediately taking responsibility.
I also keep in mind that if the US had not killed 29 Iraqi PMU's and their deputy commander as well as the most beloved General Qassem Soleimani, none of this would have ever happened..
Posted by: Annie | Jan 11 2020 4:29 utc | 2
It is a very tragic event
No US soldiers was killed and 63 Iranian civilians died.
Will Trump be able to accept that by creating more tensions with Iran he is allowing tragic events like this one to happen
The US presence in the region has only generated violence and hatred.It is high time they leave
Posted by: Virgile | Jan 11 2020 4:35 utc | 3
Sadly due to their own incompetence, Iran lost there moral high ground!
A great disappointment to those of us who supported Iran through thick and thin.
/Slow clap
Posted by: Mark | Jan 11 2020 4:53 utc | 4
I'm curious why it took them this long to admit it. Surely they knew from radar and missile crews/inventory within hours. Something doesn't add up.
Posted by: Sorghum | Jan 11 2020 4:53 utc | 5
I think also on this website it would have been wise to take a step back and not be rash in coming up with wild speculations about what could have happened (anything but Iran's fault of course). Alas, it is not the strength of this place. Other blog sites were much more careful and nuanced while so few details were known publicly.
The outcome is tragic and sad, not only is it ironic that Iran now shot down an airliner same as what the US did over the Gulf in the 80s it also raises the question how the anti-aircraft system in Teheran would confuse a slowly ascending object near the international airport for either a US/Israeli fighter jet or a missile both of which would have had to penetrate Iranian airspace hundreds of kilometres away. This will also emotionally stir up people in the country and distract them from focusing on their common enemy. Most people on board were Iranians or ethnically Iranian. I hope the government takes the necessary steps and in future events such as these shuts down civilian airspace completely. Sad.
Posted by: Alexander P | Jan 11 2020 4:58 utc | 6
So much for engine malfunction. fives eyes said it was a missile so I thought it would have been their proxies like Ukraine, but not the case this time. Downing the drone firing only one missile, precision strikes on the US base... shit happens especially when the US and five eyes are involved and creating the fog of war. Hope it doesn't make the Iranians hesitate when they next need to fire one.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 11 2020 5:01 utc | 7
@1
Yes, why didn't Iran ground all commercial flights while there was hostilities and the potential for reprisal missile and air attacks? Their air defenses can't be that good if they can't distinguish between a commercial jet and a military jet.
Indeed does not bode well in the event of war with the US which would destroy much of Iran.
Posted by: Sam | Jan 11 2020 5:05 utc | 8
For the trolls currently infesting this site - Iraq, a relatively small country when it comes to superpowers has been successfully fending off the US for fourty years. Fourty years when they could be attacked by the US at any time. They have developed their own air defences plus high tech missiles that accurately hit a US base within an Iraqi base. Trump is intent on destroying Iran. The US regime wouldn't hesitate to use a civilian plane to try and penetrate Iran's defences. US is as culpable of this downing as was the crew of the US ship that far from home and on Iran's doorstep downed the Iranian passenger jet.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 11 2020 5:14 utc | 10
Well. Looks like Iran will have to lay low for awhile or at least until the US starts the war for real. Not necessarily a bad thing?
At least the victims families get some closure. Iran should propose that some of their frozen assets be released to pay restitution.
The downing of the plane probably helped avoid an American retaliation for the missile strikes.
Posted by: pleasebeleafme | Jan 11 2020 5:15 utc | 12
Iran cleared up the crash site where the passenger jet came down and before admitting its responsibility on Friday, said it wanted to handle the black box data itself.
The debris of the Boeing 737 has been removed from the crash site near Tehran before Ukrainian investigators have even arrived, sparking fears of a cover-up.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7875505/Iran-ADMITS-shooting-Ukrainian-jetliner.html
It was a dead giveaway yesterday when Iran started clearing the debris from the crash site before any independent investigators arrived. When you add that to video that showed the Ukranian airliner exploding in the air, it would have indicated a decent probability that Iran was hiding something. But....most everyone in the earlier threads on the downing of the jet were finding all kinds of excuses why it couldn't have been an Iranian air defense missile.
Posted by: Sam | Jan 11 2020 5:17 utc | 13
I suspected that it might have an accidental shoot down. The shameless Empire (which started all this by killing Soleimani and threatening Iran) and its gutless lackeys will no doubt milk all the propaganda value they can out of this tragedy.
Posted by: Daniel | Jan 11 2020 5:23 utc | 14
@Mark
In war, no one has the moral high ground. Just because the US does evil doesn’t make Iran, who executes gays, good. Just because Soleimani fought ISIS that doesn’t make him good or not a terrorist fomenting Islamic Revolution wherever he can.
Saying Soleimani was a hero for fighting ISIS is just like saying Hitler was a hero for fighting Stalin.
The only world player that has been unselfishly good in recent memory is Cuba by sending its doctors throughout the.world and Venezuela under Chavez sending oil to poor people including those in the US.
Posted by: CognitiveDissonance | Jan 11 2020 5:25 utc | 15
It is a relief that the world suddenly agrees on facts :-))
It still does not make sense for all the reasons the Iranians quoted before.
Posted by: somebody | Jan 11 2020 5:29 utc | 16
TØM CΛT
@TomtheBasedCat
6h6 hours ago
More
There's a ground and aerial element at Baghdad International, it's not just the helicopters.
@TomtheBasedCat
5h5 hours ago
More
The airport was closed for a total of 30 minutes. It's open now.
I guess the reports about NATO Secretary-General arriving were true, but nothing to do with "credible threats" knowing the stance of the Resistance factions. Pretty sure it's Standard Operating Procedure anyways.
.....
Looks like the shit's about to hit the fan. Iran better keep those air defences manned. Iraqi's are just a bit of local fauna for the US. Like the Euro twits and the nuke deal, Trump judged the Iraqi's well.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jan 11 2020 5:29 utc | 17
Yes this is a horrible tragedy and I wish Iran had grounded all flights until they were certain all was clear. But in real life accidents and mistakes happen, sometimes very tragic and costly.
But all this talk of Iranian 'incompetence' and 'loss of moral high ground' is utter nonesense.
Iran handled this tragic mistake about as well as anyone could. Indeed far better than many others have. Especially when you consider that they knew that their enemies would use everything in an inform8war against them. Given the circumstances, Iran handled the aftermath as well as possible. 'Why did it take Iran so long to admit it?' Well, 'so long' is 3 days. And even before that, they invited experts from Boeing and even the NTSB to help with the investigation.
And now those who wished to use this incident against Iran are stuck. What can they say? The US making a fuss about it will only offer an opportunity to remind everyone of IA655. Iran has already admitted it and apologized. Not much more to use.
And none of this changes the fact that Iran is the only country to openly retaliate against the US military and have the US back down.
Posted by: Lysander | Jan 11 2020 5:30 utc | 18
Tragedy for the victims and for Iran, and any decent person will pray for them. I can only imagine the pressure on the poor Iranian officer who pressed the button. 24 hours earlier being threatened with total war and the destruction of 53 cultural sites. Any person with half a brain knows where the ultimate blame lies. Sadly, this will not be the last such event until the US pisses off and minds its own business. The world has had enough of the self proclaimed exceptionalist.
Posted by: cdvision | Jan 11 2020 5:30 utc | 19
The following link has interesting info about some of the people killed in the Ukrainian flight PS 752. Originally, I wasn't going to mention this article because in it it said "...A crash which US authorities are now saying was caused by Iran’s own missile defence systems. An explanation which Iran seems to be accepting for the moment. ..." but as that seems to be the case. This tragic shootdown will make Russia cautious in supplying Iran with missiles.
https://postmanproductions.wordpress.com/2020/01/10/uss-cvn-aotearoa-a-lockheed-weapons-platform/
Posted by: tucenz | Jan 11 2020 5:37 utc | 20
If the plane had been taken down by a bomb put onboard at Tehran airport, or by a MANPAD, wouldn't Iran prefer to "fess" up than admit a security breach?
Just putting the idea out there.
Posted by: Tsar Nicholas | Jan 11 2020 5:40 utc | 21
My tinfoil thought is: what if taking the blame for this is spin on what really happened? The US said it was a missile awfully fast. There is an information war going on, and it isn't just the west playing.
IDK, but my gut says there is more to this that we aren't being told.
Trolls are on this like white on rice. Sure seems Hasbara, MEK, and DoD have nothing better to do.
Posted by: Sorghum | Jan 11 2020 5:43 utc | 22
It only took 2 Days! US never publicly accepted responsibility for IR655. Iran promise to punish not honor or reward the guilty. MH17 any takers yet?
Posted by: Fundas | Jan 11 2020 5:45 utc | 23
After the shooting down of the US drone in 2019, the Iranian armed forces did specify that command for AD units was decentralized and thus did not come from the top. This incident would seem to support that.
There should have been no commercial traffic in the air. It is simple as that, but the root cause of this incident lies with the events which lead up to it. We can go as far back in history, but it's clear that this was caused by none other than DJT.
Posted by: ebolax | Jan 11 2020 5:48 utc | 24
@Sam 13
I’m not going to make myself very popular by saying this, but anyone who isn’t completely deluded knows, even if they never admit it publicly, that these forums are echo chambers that encourage tribal groupthink. That doesn’t mean everything that’s posted is wrong, but independent thinking and truth seeking come second to supporting the team. Remember the grief ‘paul’ got for daring to criticize V. Putin? That kind of thing happens all the time in internet forums and on Twitter.
It is a bit disconcerting that so many people are seemingly happy to wilfully delude themselves and do away with rational thinking. Maybe it was always like that and it only became noticeable with the advent of the internet.
But the west is in trouble because it has few common values that unite the population. So when times are tough people tend to splinter rather than pull together. Multiculturalism is just a neoliberal code word for a low-wage economy paired with vapid consumerism. In North America the average person knows next to nothing about other cultures. Urban liberals think eating at an “ethnic” restaurant makes them sophisticated multikultis. You can’t run a society on hyper-individualism.
Posted by: Daniel | Jan 11 2020 5:53 utc | 25
While b was looking for the likelihood that the crash was due to some failure, has always stated that there is the possibility to have been shot by an Iranian missile.
The announcement from Iranian part is impeccable from a PR perspective.
Posted by: Kouros | Jan 11 2020 5:54 utc | 26
My Ship was headed to the Gulf on the Monday after the Friday Vincennes Incident.
I was in my Homeport in Japan that Evening. Spent Supper and Watched Music Videos at the Officers' Club. As I got off my Bike at the Pier - an Associate told me that We shot down an Iranian F-14.
We already had Skirmishes the Previous Summer with the USS Stark, which Kicked Off the Naval Convoys of Operation Earnest Will.
I confirmed this with the Officer leading the Anti Surface Team on the Vincennes that Day - when I met him during an MBA Prospective Tour at Harvard years later.
Human Error - Rushed Judgement. Now we need to see if the Aircraft did Deviate from the Path / Warnings+Comms were ongoing - and to see if it wasn't a Cover for Intel Photo Ops over the Base.
Posted by: IronForge | Jan 11 2020 6:01 utc | 28
The United States KNEW about the tragic event from the moment it happened. Military satellites in the sky can make sharper photo’s than reporters on the ground of the crash site. The intelligence was shared with 5 Eyes plus ... incl. at least Israel and The Netherlands (PM Mark Rutte if MH-17 fame).
Why did the US keep info under wraps in the intelligence briefing to members U.S. Congress ... afterwards they specifically said there was. NO intelligence Ukraine airliner was shot down ... lots to learn for all. Not following the Putin playbook. Or other cover-ups like NATO downing an Italian passenger jet near Ithaca. Ukraine themselves have accidentally shot down a Siberian airliner by exercises above the Black Sea.
In real terms this revelation changes nothing: there is no doubt, and nobody disputes it, that whether the aircraft was brought down by a bomb placed by Mossad or MEK or, as now seems to be the case, accidentally brought down by hair trigger alert air defences, the basis of the crisis is the aggression of the US government and the eagerness of its corrupt leadership to appease Israeli demands.
Most of which are simply attempts to gain marginal electoral advantage-the same might be said, too, of the rationale behind the decisions of the US government.
In a word, the fault here lies in the irresponsible and dangerous bullying by Washington and its jackal like followers. And while decent people will lament every drop of blood shed by the victims and every tear of their loved ones, there should be no patience at all for the false professions of concern and pretended sympathy from those who, for forty years, have been working hard to starve Iran's population-in the hope of driving them into revolt- and mowing down its people (as in the million dead in the War in which Iraq, sponsored by the US, attacked Iran).
The facts are very clear: it is Washington's policy to starve, isolate, intimidate and misrepresent Iran and its people. Events such as these are the inevitable consequences of such evil actions.
Those who side with Iran to the extent of crediting its motives and pronouncements above those of the imperialist criminals may console themselves that Iran's openness and honesty in this matter are a vindication not only of its government and people but of the sympathy, for them, of the great majority of the global population. And the entirety of decent, honest people everywhere.
Posted by: bevin | Jan 11 2020 6:04 utc | 30
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
At the very least, it does show us that anxieties were running very high that evening/early morning with no "in-the-know" arrangement for how the deescalation was going to pan out.
They should have grounded all commercial flights. Really, Really dumb on Iran's part. And I see the saker has been mum on the whole affair.
It definitely shoots some holes in his propping up of the Iranian military/government to show how ready and focused they are for an American invasion.
Bodes poorly.
Posted by: Nemesiscalling | Jan 11 2020 4:29 utc | 1