DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
(With some select comments, some downright esoteric.)
The world upside down: A lot of Hong Kong protesters (watch that forest of UK and US flags) yearn for British-style colonial rule. They have never lived under direct Beijing rule, nor experienced the massive improvements now commonplace in mainland China. And the place is crawling with Western paid agents, propagandists, and agitators
Blaming China for the Covid-19 pandemic is false. But the U.S. will continue to do so as a part of its larger anti-China strategy.
As the U.S. is busy countering the epidemic at home China has already defeated it within its borders. It now uses the moment to remove an issue the U.S. has long used to harass it. Hong Kong will finally be liberated from its U.S. supported racists disguised as liberals.
In late 1984 Britain and China signed a formal agreement which approved the 1997 release of Britain's colony Hong Kong to China. Britain had to agree to the pact because it had lost the capability to defend the colony. The Sino British Joint Declaration stipulated that China would create a formal law that would allow Hong Kong to largely govern itself.
The 'Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People's Republic of China' is the de facto constitution of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. But it is a national law of China adopted by the Chinese National People's Congress in 1990 and introduced in Hong Kong in 1997 after the British rule ran out. If necessary the law can be changed.
Chapter II of the Basic Law regulates the relationship between the Central Authorities and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. Article 23 of the Basic Law stipulated that Hong Kong will have to implement certain measures for internal security:
The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall enact laws on its own to prohibit any act of treason, secession, sedition, subversion against the Central People's Government, or theft of state secrets, to prohibit foreign political organizations or bodies from conducting political activities in the Region, and to prohibit political organizations or bodies of the Region from establishing ties with foreign political organizations or bodies.
Hong Kong has failed to create any of the laws demanded by Article 23. Each time its government tried to even partially implement such laws, in 2003, 2014 and 2019, protests and large scale riots in the streets of Hong Kong prevented it.
China was always concerned about the foreign directed unrest in Hong Kong but it did not press the issue while it was still depending on Hong Kong for access to money and markets.
Ordinary citizens in Honk Kong pay exorbitant rents and housing in general is one of the oldest rackets instituted by the old colonial system and enforced to this day. It is that ruling class the HK protesters should be after, but they are being expertly manipulated. There are grievances alright, but they were NOT caused by Communist China. In fact, the Hong Kong capitalist have not even imitated their far more prudent Singaporean brothers in giving the people decent housing at affordable prices.
In the year 2000 Hong Kong's GDP stood at $171 billion while China's was just 7 times larger at $1.200 billion. Last year Hong Kong's GDP had nearly doubled to $365 billion. But China's GDP had grown more than tenfold to $14,200 billion, nearly 40 times larger than Hong Kong's. Expressed in purchase power parity the divergence is even bigger. As an economic outlet for China Hong Kong has lost its importance.
Another factor that held China back from deeper meddling in Hong Kong was its concern about negative consequences from the U.S. and Britain. But under the Trump administration the U.S. has introduced more and more measures to shackle China's development. The Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act passed last year by the U.S. Congress demands that the U.S. government reports on Hong Kong and punishes those who it deems to be human right violators. The sanctions against Chinese companies and especially Huawei, recently expanded to a total economic blockade of 5G chip deliveries to that company, demonstrate that the U.S. will do anything it can to hinder China's economic success.
The Obama administration's 'pivot to Asia' was already a somewhat disguised move against China. The Trump administration's National Defense Strategy openly declared China a "strategic competitor using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors while militarizing features in the South China Sea".
The U.S. Marine Corps is being reconfigured into specialized units designed to blockade China's access to the sea:
Thus, small Marine forces would deploy around the islands of the first island chain and the South China Sea, each element having the ability to contest the surrounding air and naval space using anti-air and antiship missiles. Collectively, these forces would attrite Chinese forces, inhibit them from moving outward, and ultimately, as part of a joint campaign, squeeze them back to the Chinese homeland.
The 'Cold War 2.0' the U.S. launched against China will now see significant counter moves.
Last year's violent riots in Hong Kong, cheered on by the borg in Washington DC, have demonstrated that the development in Hong Kong is on a bad trajectory that may endanger China.
There is no longer a reason for China to hold back on countering the nonsense. Hong Kong's economy is no longer relevant. U.S. sanctions are coming independent of what China does or does not do in Hong Kong. The U.S. military designs are now an obvious threat.
As the laws that Hong Kong was supposed to implement are not forthcoming, China will now create and implement them itself:
The central government is to table a resolution on Friday to enable the apex of its top legislative body, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC), to craft and pass a new national security law tailor-made for Hong Kong, it announced late on Thursday.
Sources earlier told the Post the new law would proscribe secessionist and subversive activity as well as foreign interference and terrorism in the city – all developments that had been troubling Beijing for some time, but most pressingly over the past year of increasingly violent anti-government protests.
...
According to a mainland source familiar with Hong Kong affairs, Beijing had come to the conclusion that it was impossible for the city’s Legislative Council to pass a national security law to enact Article 23 of the city’s Basic Law given the political climate. This was why it was turning to the NPC to take on the responsibility.
On May 28 the NPC will vote on a resolution asking its Standing Committee to write the relevant law for Hong Kong. It is likely to be enacted by promulgation at the end of June. The law will become part of Annex III of the Basic Law which lists "National Laws to be Applied in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region".
Under the new law the U.S. will have to stop its financing of student organization, anti-government unions and media in Hong Kong. The opposition parties will no longer be allowed to have relations with U.S. influence operations.
The U.S. State Department promptly condemned the step:
Hong Kong has flourished as a bastion of liberty. The United States strongly urges Beijing to reconsider its disastrous proposal, abide by its international obligations, and respect Hong Kong’s high degree of autonomy, democratic institutions, and civil liberties, which are key to preserving its special status under U.S. law. Any decision impinging on Hong Kong’s autonomy and freedoms as guaranteed under the Sino-British Joint Declaration and the Basic Law would inevitably impact our assessment of One Country, Two Systems and the status of the territory.
We stand with the people of Hong Kong.
It is not (yet?) The Coming War On China (video) but some hapless huffing and puffing that is strong on rhetoric but has little effect. No U.S. action can prevent China's government from securing its realm. Hong Kong is a Chinese city where China's laws, not U.S. dollars, are supreme.
The U.S. seems to believe it can win a cold war with China. But that understanding is wrong.
On the economic front it is not the U.S. that is winning by decoupling from China but Asia that is decoupling from the U.S.:
Since the US-China tech war began in April 2018 with Washington’s ban on chip exports to China’s ZTE Corporation, “de-Americanization of supply chains” has been the buzzword in the semiconductor industry.
Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia purchased about 50% more Chinese products in April 2020 than they did in the year-earlier month. Japan and Korea showed 20% gains. Exports to the US rose year-on-year, but from a very low 2019 base.
China’s imports from Asia also rose sharply.
When the U.S. prohibits companies, which use U.S. software or machines to design and make chips, from selling them to China then those companies will seek to buy such software and machines elsewhere. When the U.S. tries to hinder China's access to computer chips, China will build its own chip industry. Ten years from now it will be the U.S. which will have lost access to the then most modern ones as all of those will come from China. Already today it is China that dominates global trade.
The chaotic way in which the U.S. handles its Covid crisis is widely observed abroad. Those who see clearly recognize that it is now China, not the U.S., that is the responsible superpower. The U.S. is overwhelmed and will continue to be so for a long time:
This is why I don’t see the talk about a possible “Cold War 2.0” as meaningful or relevant. If there were to be any sort of “cold war” between the United States and China, then U.S. policymakers would still be able credibly to start planning how to manage this complex relationship with China. But in reality, the options for “managing” the core of this relationship are pitifully few, since the central task of whatever U.S. leadership emerges from this Covid nightmare will be to manage the precipitous collapse of the globe-circling empire the United States has sat atop of since 1945.
...
So here in Washington in Spring of 2020, I say, Let ’em huff and puff with their new flatulations of childish Sinophobia. Let them threaten this or that version of a new “Cold War”. Let them compete in elections– if these are to be held– on versions of “Who can be tougher on China.” But the cold reality shows that, as Banquo said, “It is a tale, told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
In his 2003 book After the Empire Emmanuel Todd described why the U.S. was moving towards the loss of its superpower status:
Todd calmly and straightforwardly takes stock of many negative trends, including America's weakened commitment to the socio-economic integration of African Americans, a bulimic economy that increasingly relies on smoke and mirrors and the goodwill of foreign investors, and a foreign policy that squanders the country's reserves of "soft power" while its militaristic arsonist-fireman behavior is met with increasing resistance.
The Covid-19 crisis has laid all this bare for everyone to see.
Will the U.S., as Todd predicted, now have to give up its superpower status? Or will it start a big war against China to divert the attention elsewhere and to prove its presumed superiority?
Posted by b on May 22, 2020 at 17:41 UTC | Permalink
If General Buck Tergidson is still in the house it's war.
Posted by: ramon | May 22 2020 18:14 utc | 2
It may be more likely that states will abandon the union in the event of some wacko war event. This is already being considered due to different covid containment measures or lack thereof.
Posted by: Bob | May 22 2020 18:18 utc | 3
If Washington lured the Soviet Union into its demise in Afghanistan, which left that minor empire in shambles - socially, militarily, economically - it was the nuclear conflagration at Chernobyl that put the corpse in the ground.....
(Watch the GREAT HBO five-part tragedy on it and you will see that the brutally heroic response of the Soviets, that saved the Western World at least temporarily, but is the portrait of self-sacrifice)
What was lost in the Soviets fumbling immediate post-explosion cover-up was the trust of their Eastern European satellite countries. That doomed that empire. So much military might was given up in Afghanistan, then on Chernobyl, it was not clear if the Soviets had the wherewithal to put down the rebellions that spread from Czechoslovakia to East Germany and beyond.
Covid-19 will do the same to the American Empire.
As its own infrastructure has been laid waste by the COLLASSAL MONEY PIT that is the Pentagon, its flagrant use of the most valuable energy commodity, oil, to maintain some 4000 bases worldwide, this rickety over-extended upside down version of old Anglo-Dutch trading empires, will finally collapse.
Loss of trust by the many craven satellites, in America's fractured response, to Covid-19 will put the final nail in its coffin.
A hot-shooting War may come next, but the empire cannot win it.
Posted by: Kurt Zumdieck | May 22 2020 18:24 utc | 4
The U.S. and its vassals will use every dirty trick in the book even while shooting themselves in the foot, as they have demonstrated in the past (and presently). Short of starting a nuclear war, the level of moral turpitude could not be any lower.
Posted by: norecovery | May 22 2020 18:36 utc | 5
That the pro-USA bloc in HK has to complain of supposed violations of the non-binding aspirational 1984 Joint Declaration shows their position is one of complaint not dialogue. As early as last May, protesters interviewed by international media were pleading for the US to enact the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. They got their wish last autumn, but now they get the blowback from that decision. The pro-USA bloc is now openly discussing a new strategy of rising like a phoenix from the ashes of the temper tantrum they will stage in response. The hysteria meter will rise to 10.
Posted by: jayc | May 22 2020 18:36 utc | 6
The U.S. military’s believe it will be able to control the seas off China in wartime by boating in small, missile-toting, but otherwise lightly equipped squads of Marines, dropping them on islands, and presumably relocating and evacuating them as desired – all without getting detected and blown up by the enemy – is possibly the most deluded piece of U.S. strategic “thinking” I can recall seeing, and the competition is stiff.
I don’t fault China for responding to the political hostility, but it will be to everyone’s benefit if their military moves will be tempered somewhat the preposterousness of what the U.S. plans on throwing at them.
Posted by: David G | May 22 2020 18:37 utc | 7
"We stand with the people of Hong Kong".
My god, the cringe-inducing arrogance of the Washington regime is something else! Imagine after Hurricane Maria and the subsequently dismal aid effort that devastated Puerto Rico, the Chinese issued a statement lambasting the US response and saying "we stand with the people of Puerto Rico".
Disgusting regime.
Posted by: Nick | May 22 2020 18:38 utc | 8
Today, Pepe Escobar has a similar analysis to B:
http://thesaker.is/china-one-country-two-sessions-three-threats/
Posted by: heresy101 | May 22 2020 18:41 utc | 9
The new law only prohibits organized protest movements funded from abroad (US of north A or G-Britain, for instance), and not those protests paid for by tax and corruption refugees from Mainland China-- nor those from Táiwan that adhere to the unity of the Chinese state.
Posted by: Ou Si (區司) | May 22 2020 18:57 utc | 10
Laws like this one also exist in Finland, Norway and Iceland to prohibit foreign electioneering interferences,
Posted by: Ou Si (區司) | May 22 2020 19:00 utc | 11
I dunno.
Seems to me that Chinese dominion of HK has long been in the cards. Not sure that the Chinese moves signal anything more than the obvious: USA/EMPIRE desire to stomp on Chinese ambitions.
Kissinger laid out the plan in 2014 in his WSJ Op-Ed: Henry Kissinger on the Assembly of a New World Order. Even though I repeatedly refer back to Kissinger's Op-Ed, few really seem to 'get it'. USA Deep State are not the complete idiots that some want to make them seem.
Start a war with China? Not likely any time soon.
USA/EMPIRE have got what it wanted from HK, didn't they? They used HK to antagonize China and for anti-China propaganda. China's looming "crackdown" on UK will get lots of attention in the West, as USA economic sanctions on multiple countries are largely ignored and Assange rots in prison with nary a word from the press.
IMO The real test of USA/Empire is coming soon in the Caribbean. Will USA 'blink' and allow Iran to deliver gas to Venezuela?
!!
Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 22 2020 19:05 utc | 12
Thanks b, I'm expecting the HK debacles from you. This will be the new battleground and China will make its stand here. It is China’s Waterloo, the battle between the good and evil (MoA decide the good and the evil). It could be an all assault against Americans or China here. This here where China will end the freewheeling foreigners spying and instigating China.
There are millions of Aussies, Canadians. Brits, Kiwis, Indians and Americans in HK and will soon boot out. Don't believe me watch what I have a lot to say in this thread....
But, but, but these are not freaking WHITE but dual citizens’ ethnic Chinese from Australia, Canada, UK, NZ, India, Singapore, M'sia, Indonesia and America..... My niece an Aussie with her family is one of the millions in HK. America’s screw themselves they'll loose their only secured spying networks in China if they acted on HK.... Watch SCMP, Joe Tsai dual citizens HK and Canada born in Taiwan Alibaba Group Holding’s vice-chairman and Brian Liu, CEO an American, Taiwan Citizens. Both originally Taiwanese. SCMP have extensive correspondents, reporters etc. worldwide including Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai.... after the last tit-for-tat most MSM were expelled from China
Posted by: JC | May 22 2020 19:06 utc | 13
Will the U.S., as Todd predicted, now have to give up its superpower status? Or will it start a big war against China to divert the attention elsewhere and to prove its presumed superiority?
Forget China. The US first needs to show whether it can stop those 5 Iranian oil tankers taking oil to Venezuela. This will be a quick litmus test of the US superpower status.
Posted by: a meme | May 22 2020 19:18 utc | 14
Very good article by MoA.
James is right that the US only knows and uses its toolbox from its past. That is the problem with US elites that are determined to maintain the status quo to their benefit & the public be damned.
David is right to heap derision on the Pentagon plan to use the Marines to pin the Chinese to the coast. Another example of the US stuck in the past like it's still fighting WW2.
As for Hong Kong it's part of sovereign China. It's none of US business. Congress will heap on sanctions - but no matter - the US has met more than its match and the more it pushes the more it accelerates world into a post western-dominated cycle of history.
Posted by: AriusArmenian | May 22 2020 19:20 utc | 15
Correction Brian Liu should be Gary Liu.
Watch both videos, first Gary alone with TED and later Gary Liu and Joe Tsai together.... extensive hidden agenda spying in China...
Gary Liu, Joe Tsai Chung-hsin
What the world can learn from China’s response to the coronavirus | Gary Liu
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIh2-S2jXls
Artificial Intelligence at Heart of Alibaba Ecosystem
who is the whiteman blocked PMorgan banker into blg in HHK
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGcD8CTlDEc
Posted by: JC | May 22 2020 19:42 utc | 16
And let's add a note about the revised language China is using with regard to Taiwan.
China drops word 'peaceful' in latest push for Taiwan 'reunification'
Posted by: snow_watcher | May 22 2020 19:51 utc | 18
We are dealing with the same group, the descendants of the men who dropped the bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki not to end WWII but to show the USSR and the world that the Western Empire had the world at its feet.
The idea that this group will not use nuclear weapons again is foolish.
I don't know why people keep using the irrelevant term "cold war" when the US is engaged in hybrid warfare throughout the globe and there is nothing cold about it.
Posted by: Babyl-on | May 22 2020 19:53 utc | 19
Posted by: a meme | May 22 2020 19:18 utc | 14
'Will the U.S., as Todd predicted, now have to give up its superpower status? Or will it start a big war against China to divert the attention elsewhere and to prove its presumed superiority?'
Yes, it seems to me that Venezuela is the scene that brings all of the actors together: Iran and Venezuela, shored up militarily by Russia and economically by China.
It gives all of these actors a chance, together, to give the U.S. a bloody nose while keeping the action far from home.
Posted by: dh-mtl | May 22 2020 20:00 utc | 20
"Will the U.S., as Todd predicted, now have to give up its superpower status? Or will it start a big war against China to divert the attention elsewhere and to prove its presumed superiority?"
Pretty much a rhetorical question from where I am sitting.
Posted by: MarkU | May 22 2020 20:06 utc | 21
The US "decoupling" from China is like the terminal patient in ICU "decoupling" from the machinery keeping his body alive. It is not working out quite the way the Republican and Democrat MAGA types imagined.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 22 2020 20:14 utc | 22
As Ou Si @ 11 states, other nations have similar laws prohibiting foreign influence through the use of non-government organisations posing as charities or religious institutions via embassies and consulates. Moreover as in the case of Russia (I believe, but people can correct me if I'm wrong), the law that prohibits such activity is based on the equivalent US law that apply to foreign organisations on US soil.
In the not so distant future, we can expect to see truckloads of US and UK consulate staff being kicked out of HK and religious and other various "humanitarian" and "cultural" organisations in HK having to pack their bags and go.
Where they will all relocate though is another worry.
Posted by: Jen | May 22 2020 20:32 utc | 23
But the cold reality shows that, as Banquo said, “It is a tale, told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”
Macbeth's words, not Banquo's.
As usual, a nicely measured article, thank you.
Posted by: Guy THORNTON | May 22 2020 20:36 utc | 24
Vancouver is witnessing a greater number of attacks on asian people at present... it seems the 'hate china' memo is working itself thru the msm system with these kinds of results... when i have an article to go with this, i will share...
Posted by: james | May 22 2020 20:41 utc | 25
The US is already at war with China, and will escalate from hybrid/economic war to hot war eventually because the US believes it has no alternative. Giving up global hegemony and yielding to the rising power is not perceived as a viable option. Allowing China's rise will lead to the destruction of the Empire, and America will not allow that without using the best tools of imperialism it has left, which is its military.
The Chinese need to understand this, and I believe they do understand it, but they need to accurately grasp how the US will respond to the shooting conflict when it starts. The US will escalate the violence to stay at least one level more brutal than their adversary. If the Chinese shoot at and damage an American ship, then the Americans will respond with ten times the force and sink a Chinese ship. If the Chinese sink an American ship, then the Americans will (try to) sink every Chinese ship.
The point here is that the Chinese cannot entertain the illusion that they can just give America a light military slap and the Americans will reconsider their imperialist behavior. There is precisely 0% chance of that working. When the Chinese do take action it has to be big and decisive. If the Chinese want any chance of escaping the Thucydides Trap without all-out war, then they must punch their way out with enough "Shock & Awe™" to disrupt America's otherwise inevitable escalation.
Keep in mind that the United States will use atomic weapons to defend its hegemony if allowed to escalate to that level. The only way to prevent that is to leapfrog past all of the levels of escalation that America is prepared for at the given moment and in the process stun America into inability to respond. China certainly has the means to accomplish this, but they cannot be timid about it.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 22 2020 20:49 utc | 26
China is still in great danger. Of the existing 30 or so high-tech productive chains, China only enjoys superiority at 2 or 3 (see 6:48). It is still greatly dependent on the West to development and still is a developing country.
So, yes, the West still has a realistic chance of destroying China and inaugurating a new cycle of capitalist prosperity.
What happens with the "decoupling"/"Pivot to Asia" is that, in the West, there's a scatological theory [go to 10th paragraph] - of Keynesian origin - that socialism can only play "catch up" with capitalism, but never surpass it when a "toyotist phase" of technological innovation comes (this is obviously based on the USSR's case). This theory states that, if there's innovation in socialism, it is residual and by accident, and that only in capitalism is significant technological advancement possible. From this, they posit that, if China is blocked out of Western IP, it will soon "go back to its place" - which is probably to Brazil or India level.
If China will be able to get out of the "Toyotist Trap" that destroyed the USSR, only time will tell. Regardless, decoupling is clearly not working, and China is not showing any signs so far of slowing down. Hence Trump is now embracing a more direct approach.
As for the USA, I've put my big picture opinion about it some days ago, so I won't repeat myself. Here, it suffices to say that, yes, I believe the USA can continue to survive as an empire - even if, worst case scenario, in a "byzantine" form. To its favor, it has: 1) the third largest world population 2) huge territory, with excellent proportion of high-quality arable land (35%), that basically guarantees food security indefinitely (for comparison, the USSR only had 10% of arable land, and of worse quality) 3) two coasts, to the two main Oceans (Pacific and Atlantic), plus a direct exit to the Arctic (Alaska and, de facto, Greenland and Canada) 4) excellent, very defensive territory, protected by both oceans (sea-to-sea), bordered only by two very feeble neighbors (Mexico and Canada) that can be easily absorbed if the situation asks to 4) still the financial superpower 5) still a robust "real" economy - specially if compared to the micro-nations of Western Europe and East-Asia 6) a big fucking Navy, which gives it thalassocratic power.
I don't see the USA losing its territorial integrity anytime soon. There are separatist movements in places like Texas and, more recently, the Western Coast. Most of them exist only for fiscal reasons and are not taken seriously by anyone else. The Star-and-Stripes is still a very strong ideal to the average American, and nobody takes the idea of territory loss for real. If that happens, though, it would change my equation on the survival of the American Empire completely.
As for Hong Kong. I watched a video by the chief of the PLA last year (unfortunately, I watched it on Twitter and don't have the link with me anymore). He was very clear: Hong Kong does not present an existential threat to China. The greatest existential threat to China are, by far, Xinjiang and Tibet, followed by Taiwan and the South China Sea. Hong Kong is a distant fourth place.
Those liberal clowns were never close.
Much appreciated article, thanks for that! I know nothing about China and Hong Kong, so I'm much obliged for your analysis.
Seems really like the thing to do for the Chinese, not to meddle too much in the city's internal affairs, but make sure that hostile powers can't meddle there either. When those protests slash riots came up, I was racking my brain about why the Chinese would put up with any festering US consulate in Hong Kong. Just throw those "diplomats" out on whatever thin pretext. That's also what Venezuela should have done long ago, and Syria too, back in 2011 when that certified creep Robert Stephen Ford was hopping from couch to couch, inciting civil war and probably looking to get laid by impressionable Arab guys as well. They could have saved themselves a lot of trouble by just 'neutralising' Jeff-Man Feltman over in Lebanon, too, before said Feltman managed to neutralise his host Rafic Hariri.
Posted by: Scotch Bingeinton | May 22 2020 21:06 utc | 28
Good info on this situation, b. What has always been fascinating to me is the irony of the mindset HK protestors. They have legit grievances about economic injustices but due to their media (which is just an extension of British tabloid conspiracy sites like the Mirror and Sun or neocon Brit rags like the Economist), they wrongly attribute blame to Beijing when they ought to their former British masters. When they left, they forced China to guarantee that the oligarchs in HK would continue to have full control over land and banking interests. These corrupt servants of the British have continued to jack up housing prices and made it nearly impossible for many to live a comfortable life. HK has more land than Singapore but the later made it illegal to price gauge rent and made other protections against predatory oligarchs. Now Singaporeans have very high home ownership and affordable housing while HKers must live like rats. Due to their colonial brainwashing, the HKers have come to see anti-China conspiracy theories everywhere when their own oligarchs continue to steal from them. Had it not been for the British who forced Beijing into these pro-oligarch deals to ensure handover, Beijing would have done the same for HK what the Singaporean gov did for their population.
Posted by: Doryphore | May 22 2020 21:30 utc | 30
VK @ 28:
One problem with your scenario is that the US navy may be over-extended in parts of the world where all the enemy has to do is to cut off supply lines to battleship groups and then those ships would be completely helpless. US warships in the Persian Gulf with the Strait of Hormuz sealed off by Iran come to mind.
Incidents involving US naval ship collisions with slow-moving oil tankers in SE Asian waters and some other parts of of the the world, resulting in the loss of sailors, hardly instill the notion that the US is a mighty thalassocratic force.
It's my understanding also that Russia, China and maybe some other countries have invested hugely in long-range missiles capable of hitting US coastal cities and areas where the bulk of the US population lives.
And if long-range missiles don't put paid to the notion that projecting power through sending naval warships all over the planet works, maybe the fact that many of these ships are sitting ducks for COVID-19 infection clusters might, where the US public is concerned.
Posted by: Jen | May 22 2020 21:55 utc | 32
@ Posted by: Jen | May 22 2020 21:55 utc | 33
I agree the new anti-ship missile technology may have changed the rules of naval warfare.
However, it's important to highlight that, contrary to the US Army, the USN has a stellar record. It fought wonderfully against the Japanese Empire in 1941-1945, and successfully converted both the Pacific and the Atlantic into "American lakes" for the next 75 years. All the Americans have nowadays it owes its Navy.
But you may be right. Maybe the USN is also susceptible to degeneration.
Re:34 VK,
The US Navy has had some pretty serious lapses in the past decade, the multiple collisions with cargo ships and the failed Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) design. Putting aside the unproven allegations that the Chinese or the Russians somehow "spooled" the GPS of the ships to cause the collisions the fact the US ships didn't have lookouts posted means they either got lazy or they are so understaffed they cut vital roles they felted were better off being automated. Also, I seem to recall that the US navy reduced their offshore training program for their officers a few years ago (meaning their newest officers are learning on the fly at sea). So i'm not sure if they've avoided the problems of a bloated military
Posted by: Kadath | May 22 2020 22:53 utc | 36
Posted by: vk | May 22 2020 21:02 utc | 28 Of the existing 30 or so high-tech productive chains, China only enjoys superiority at 2 or 3 (see 6:48). It is still greatly dependent on the West to development and still is a developing country.
Based on what I've read, China is on a fast track to develop technology on their own. In addition, technology development is world-wide these days. What China can not develop itself - quickly enough, time is the only real problem - it can buy with its economic power.
"if China is blocked out of Western IP, it will soon "go back to its place" - which is probably to Brazil or India level."
Ah, but that's where hackers come in. China can *not* be blocked out of Western IP. First, as I said, China can *buy* it. Unless there is a general prohibition across the entire Western world, and by extension sanctions against any other nation from selling to China - which is an unenforceable policy, as Iran has shown - China can buy what it doesn't have and then reverse-engineer it. Russia will sell it if no one else will.
Second, China can continue to simply acquire technology through industrial espionage. Every country and every industry engages in this sort of thing. Ever watch the movie "Duplicity"? That shit actually happens. I read about industrial espionage years ago and it's only gotten fancier since the old days of paper files. I would be happy to breach any US or EU industrial sector and sell what I find to the Chinese, the Malaysians or anyone else interested. It's called "leveling the playing field" and that is advantageous for everyone. If the US industrial sector employees can't keep up, that's their problem. No one is guaranteed a job for life - and shouldn't be.
"1) the third largest world population"
Which is mostly engaged in unproductive activities like finance, law, etc. I've read that if you visit the main US universities teaching science and technology, who are the students? Chinese. Indians. Not Americans. Americans only want to "make money" in law and finance, not "make things."
"2) huge territory, with excellent proportion of high-quality arable land (35%), that basically guarantees food security indefinitely"
In military terms, given current military technology, territory doesn't matter. China has enough nuclear missiles to destroy the 50 Major Metropolitan Areas in this country. Losing 100-200 millions citizens kinda puts a damper on US productivity. Losing the same number in China merely means more for the rest.
"3) two coasts, to the two main Oceans (Pacific and Atlantic)"
Which submarines can make irrelevant. Good for economic matters - *if* your economy can continue competing. China has one coast - but its Belt and Road Initiative gives it economic clout on the back-end and the front-end. I don't see the US successfully countering that Initiative.
"4) excellent, very defensive territory, protected by both oceans (sea-to-sea)"
Which only means the US can't be "invaded". That's WWI and WWII thinking the US is mired in. Today, you destroy an opponent's military and, if necessary, his civilian population, or at least its ability to "project" force against you. You don't "invade" unless it's some weak Third World country. And if the US can't "project" its power via its navy or air force, having a lot of territory doesn't mean much. This is where Russia is right now. Very defensible but limited in force projection (but getting better fast.) The problem for the US is China and Russia are developing military technology that can prevent US force projection around *their* borders.
"bordered only by two very feeble neighbors (Mexico and Canada) that can be easily absorbed if the situation asks"
LOL I can just see the US "absorbing" Mexico. Canada, maybe - they're allies anyway. Mexico, not so much. You want a "quagmire", send the US troops to take on the Mexican drug gangs. They aren't Pancho Villa.
"4) still the financial superpower"
Uhm, what part of "Depression" did you miss? And even if that doesn't happen now, continued financial success is unlikely. Like pandemics, shit happens in economics and monetary policy.
"a big fucking Navy, which gives it thalassocratic power."
That can be sunk in a heartbeat and is virtually a colossal money pit with limited strategic value given current military technology which both China and Russia are as advanced as the US is, if not more so. Plus China is developing its own navy quickly. I read somewhere a description of one Chinese naval shipyard. There were several advanced destroyers being developed. Then the article noted that China has several more large shipyards. That Chinese long coast comes in handy for that sort of thing.
China Now Has More Warships Than the U.S.
But sometimes quantity doesn't trump quality. [My note: But sometimes it does.]
https://tinyurl.com/y7numhef
That's just the first article I found, from a crappy source. There are better analyses, of course.
"I don't see the USA losing its territorial integrity anytime soon. There are separatist movements in places like Texas and, more recently, the Western Coast. Most of them exist only for fiscal reasons and are not taken seriously by anyone else."
I'd agree with that. I hear this "California secession" crap periodically and never believe it. However, for state politicians, the notion of being "President" of your own country versus a "Governor" probably is tempting to these morons. State populations are frequently idiots as well, as the current lockdown response is demonstrating. All in all, though, if there are perceived external military threats, that is likely to make the states prefer to remain under US central control.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 22 2020 23:51 utc | 38
Here's a little story from my teen years in the '90s that taught me everything I needed to know about the mentality of Hong Kongers. When my father's provincial university opened a satellite campus in a wealthy area of my country's largest city, I found myself at a high school with many recent East Asian migrants. Not many Mainlanders yet, mostly Sth Koreans and HK/Taiwan/Singapore Chinese. The HKers tended to be more arrogant than their fellow East Asians, seeing themselves as superior and more 'Western'.
One HK guy decided to differentiate himself by referring to the other East Asians as 'Gooks'. One day in class my quiet Korean friend gave the teacher a note and said in halting English "I need to go see ... orthodontist". On hearing this, our HKer immediately yelled "Is 'dentist' ... not 'dontist' you stupid GOOK!", provoking roars of laughter. Once he realised we were laughing at him, not with him, that was the beginning of the end for his 'Gook' experiment.
Posted by: Paora | May 23 2020 1:05 utc | 49
May 19th 2020: Indian and Chinese troops have been involved in as many as four incidents in recent weeks along the undefined LAC. (=Line of Actual Control)
China upped their close border infrastructure for decades but doesn't like India to do likewise. It it wise to antagonize India more while struggling with the US?
Posted by: Antonym | May 23 2020 2:08 utc | 52
So of all the concerns and analyses, the principal worry is the specter of warfare in some form, conducted by the US against China. Obviously we have two schools of thought here, ranging from the assessment that the US is still capable militarily and as an executive of inflicting serious harm, to the other end of the spectrum that doubts the US capacity even to find its shoes in the morning.
I like the notion raised in this thread that Venezuela is the place to watch next rather than China, for an insight into the degree to which Pentagon abilities can match CIA desires.
I personally think that the concept of China's needing to deliver a mind-numbing shock to China is overdrawn. The fact is that we've already seen Iran deliver a short, sharp slap to the US - the first overt attack by a state in this century - and we saw the US capitulation.
Venezuela probably does give us the next proof that the US can be challenged militarily and fail to respond. Time will tell, and give us much more data than the simple outcome of an oil delivery to an embargoed nation.
The way one parses the actions of the US nowadays is not to measure its affirmative intentions and proclivities but to measure the extent of its failing abilities. The US has its bluster, which somewhat blinds the world to its true capacity, but also locks the US itself into going through the motions to support that bluster. But how far can those motions go, simply in support of bluster? When a state draws a line and stands ready to go all-in, we have seen increasing indications in recent years that the US will fail to commit military power to cross that line.
We've discussed before how thinly the slice of escalation can be cut in world confrontations. The US itself has some skill in this also. Using a few soldiers as a tripwire in the oilfields of Syria, it forces the liberating forces to stay away from confrontation. Russia itself has sliced the strategic retaking of Idlib into numerous small slivers, each time calculating the resolve and power of the US at the moment of the action.
And where did I read just today that it is actually Russia and China who are enacting a "containment" policy - containing the US as it slowly falls, refraining from unbalancing the lumbering giant caught in its own blinding fog of bluster and action?
In this sense, I think the question is not so much if the US will engage in outright war with China, but if China will provoke a military action which it can counter without forcing the dotard into a foolish, unthinking activity that could mean the downfall of all. China is gaming the outcomes, I suspect, to a far finer precision than the US.
Remember it was North Korea that gave us the "dotard" description. NK knew the west more elegantly than the west knew itself. The supposed target nations of the US understand their adversary far more clearly than he understands himself, or the world he is in. They are actually the ones guiding the US gently to its knees.
~~
Or so I suspect, and theorize speculatively.
Venezuela may provide priceless insight into this equation. Iran will act with perhaps a far thicker slice of escalation, even though it uses the same strategy of attempting not to provoke the US into an always-possible folly from which there may be no turning back. China will be watching closely, learning and adjusting all the time.
Posted by: Grieved | May 23 2020 3:14 utc | 55
A commentator in Taiwan said that the US consulate in Hong Kong has more than 2000 staff. If true, this number is astounding, and probably has nothing comparable in other US foreign missions. These officials can't all be processing visas, could they, haha. Regime-change workers, spies and so-called diplomats.
Posted by: occupatio | May 23 2020 3:23 utc | 56
Posted by: Grieved | May 23 2020 3:14 utc | 57 China is gaming the outcomes, I suspect, to a far finer precision than the US.
I'd say that's almost certainly the case, as China has a *far* older concept of strategy than the clowns in the US do.
Thinking today about vk's post, I came to three conclusions:
1) Cold War 2.0 will pit the US against China and Russia, just like Cold War 1.0 - but the emphasis this time will be against China, not Russia (although both will be demonized by the US.)
2) China in the next 25-50 years will progress - perhaps with some stumbles, but nothing catastrophic - to a point of economic and technological superiority over and military parity with the US.
3) Just as the US won Cold War 1.0 by 1) being technologically superior to the Soviet Union, and 2) outspent the Soviet Union by having a better economy, so, too, will China win Cold War 2.0 by the same mechanisms.
The question remains: what will a China "win" in Cold War 2.0 mean for the average US citizen? I suspect it won't mean much unless the US economic issues cause it to crash badly as a result of trying to "de-link" from the world's biggest economy. I view the notion of some Western (partisan) observers that it will mean China's social and political values will "corrupt" the US government and population to be a load of paranoid BS.
As an individualist anarchist, I view all states as "the enemy." But in "real politic" terms, I can't see a country like China or Russia being a real "threat" to the US in any significant form - economic, social or military - as long as the US doesn't screw up its own game so badly that it is no longer a military deterrent to either. "The Great Game" was relevant up until the point of nuclear weapons. Now it's just a means for states to game their own populations and try to extract personal profit by calling everyone else a "threat". And ninety percent (or more) of the populations eat it up and that keeps the game going.
The only real risk is that someone screws up and the game gets out of control to the point where nuclear weapons get employed. Anyone remember the movie "The Bedford Incident"? I suspect these days even an incident of that magnitude would not necessarily result in nuclear war - unless it occurred under the sort of tensions that were in play during, say, the Cuban Missile Crisis. But anything is possible.
A "survivor" is not someone who "survives" a disaster - but someone who wasn't there when the disaster took place. Because he saw it coming and GTFO. Keep your eyes peeled and have a open ticket to somewhere safe.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2020 3:39 utc | 58
vk(@28) says: "if China is blocked out of Western IP, it will soon "go back to its place" - which is probably to Brazil or India level."
People in this site are generally more knowledgeable than average westerners. But it looks like commenters are still quite ignorant when it comes to China.
Some random facts:
1. China is the country filing the most patents in the world - more than US.
2. Huawei filed the most patents in 2018 among all companies in the world.
3. China publishes the most numbers of papers in Computer sciences, AI, math, chemistry, material sciences, etc in peer reviewed journals.
4. Chinese papers have the most citations in many of the above fields.
5. China trains 5 millions STEM students a year. US trains 180k STEM students a year - and even that, large percentage of US students are Chinese or foreign citizens.
6. China achieves so many "first" or world records in science and engineering research, e.g. one and only quantum satellite, soft landing on dark side of moon, world record time in controlled nuclear fusion, fastest wind tunnel, the most accurate atomic clock in space,... (a very long list)
... and so on if I have time.
Yeah, "Brazil or India level" - can't get more misinformed than that.
Posted by: d dan | May 23 2020 3:46 utc | 59
Here's a revised and 'transplanted comment I tried to post in an earlier thread, but it somehow didn't get posted.
Something to consider: there's probably nothing easier to sink than an oil tanker. Hold that thought while I segue into an obliquely relevant issue.
The idea that the US can be oil independent due to ample resources on the North American continent is effectively a myth. There is not enough oil in the ground, or sands, etc. to last for very long at all. This fact makes the USSA somewhat unique, since its oil can only be adequately provided via oil tankers.
What this means is that China can gradually eliminate the US supply of virtually all oil, simply by sinking the oil tankers that the US can expect to depend upon, one at a time, with its many submarines. Pretty much in the way the US crippled Japan in WWII. And the tactic would almost have the advantage of plausible deniability. No military vessels would even need to be attacked.
It would all start with one mysteriously torpedoed oil tanker...
China, thru heavy investment in STEM fields achieved critical mass 5-10 years ago. They are no longer dependent on others for scientific advancement.
My step-brother, who is Chinese (with STEM degrees) claims the issue is no longer about trying to get technology from other sources, but trying to prevent other sources from copying Chinese advancements.
Reverting to India or especially banana republic Brazil level is pretty laughable and shows a willful ignorance of reality.
As far as military power goes, China's technology and economy haven't been fully converted to military muscle. I believe this is why USA and vassals is so desperate to act now.
Posted by: Jason | May 23 2020 5:23 utc | 63
Of the 500 fastest supercomputers in the world, the top two are in the US, but 3 and 4 in China, and China has more than 50% of the total versus US 22%. The attack on Made in China 2025 is precisely because the US knows it is behind in the technology for AI, facial recognition, robotics, IoT, 5G and almost every other aspect of the 4th industrial revolution. The attack on One Belt One Road is because nobody wants the US 'model' of plantation crops for US consumers but no food independence, of cheap labour manufacturing but having to import higher value added US consumer products, of being 'encouraged' to take on lots of $ denominated debt that has zero currency or even default risk to US investors (governments bail out the banks) but enables Wall street to appropriate all their strategic assets on default. The Washington Consensus has kepy billions in poverty for decades to the benefit of the US. China has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty in its own country and offers the same to the rest of the world. "Freedom and Democracy" means freedom for the US demos to decide exactly how to exploit you and your resources to their own ends. China is about trade, America is about tribute.
Posted by: Mark T | May 23 2020 6:45 utc | 64
Posted by: Jason | May 23 2020 5:23 utc | 65 trying to prevent other sources from copying Chinese advancements.
If that's true, I'd be happy to breach Chinese companies and research institutions and steal their stuff and sell it to *US* companies. I'm all for "leveling the playing field" - in either direction. LOL
"As far as military power goes, China's technology and economy haven't been fully converted to military muscle. I believe this is why USA and vassals is so desperate to act now."
Agreed. We all have to keep in mind that China spent $250 billion while the US spent $649 billion in 2018.
The Pentagon likes to claim: "If you account for differences in reporting structure, purchasing power, and labor costs, you find that China's 2017 defense budget provided 87 percent of the purchasing power of American's 2017 defense budget". Somehow that rings rather hollow, given that the US military has 1.3 million troops vs China's 2.18 million active military. China has massively increased its military spending - rather intelligently, given the degree of threat that the US clearly represents to China. I just watched Pilger's "The Coming War With China" and the maps of US bases surrounding China is impressive.
This article indicates that estimates of China's military spending are all over the map by up $75 billion...as is US spending.
What does China really spend on its military?
https://chinapower.csis.org/military-spending/
According to that piece, China's percentage of GDP devoted to the military hovers around 2%. The US spends 3.4%. So is the aggressor? Both Chinese and US expenditures have dropped in recent years, the US from its high after 9/11 and China's by a few percentage points, as has Russia's.
But if China eventually has the world's largest economy, then if the US pushes China into increasing its military percentage of GDP, the US will end up like the Soviet Union - outspent. And the resultant military capability may exceed parity with the US.
Which means the US literally shoots itself in the foot...again.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | May 23 2020 6:54 utc | 65
oldhippie @71
Do not underestimate the impact of environmental regulations in China on clearing up the skies. Cleaning up is something that as been in progress for years in China, with many of the projects planned to come to fruition in the early 2020s. The pandemic has certainly had an impact, but the skies in China were already clearing up dramatically before it hit.
It is the same with the economic collapse in the empire. That too was already underway before the pandemic. The pandemic didn't cause the collapse, nor did it cause the changes in China. It will just serve as a convenient date to mark on the historic timelines in future history textbooks. Many in the future will point out the coming war between the empire and China as being the turning point where the balance of power flipped, but more astute historians will point to the pandemic as the inflection point. The pandemic has just made that inflection point sharper and more distinct.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 23 2020 13:38 utc | 74
Amazing article. This is similar to Modi's and the Indian government's take on Kashmir and how the British independence gave Kashmiris several exclusive rights which have only allowed free entry for terrorist groups from Pakistan. Seizing Kashmir into India and removing those special rights, is a bold move and brought Modi under severe criticism. But seeing the historical picture , changes everything....
Posted by: isha | May 23 2020 13:56 utc | 75
Gruff @ 74
Look at the photos. There are dramatic impacts and then there is flipping a switch. I will believe my eyes. Even before the shutdown began locally it was dramatic to me and to others who use their sensory apparatus that the sky was suddenly clearer. It was the China shutdown that began the clear skies. The skies are still clear. So tired of reading propaganda. I will believe my eyes.
Posted by: oldhippie | May 23 2020 13:56 utc | 76
Jen @ 32, I had a thought that maybe the US is starting this sea challenge because they need to use up the excess oil that's making domestic prices stay so low - not much profit in it these days though the 'little people are enjoying very low prices at the pump. And of course the virus and business shuttered is all not helping. So, let's have some big ships charging around, shall we?
Posted by: juliania | May 23 2020 14:07 utc | 78
"I will believe my eyes." --oldhippie @76
It would be nice if that were so, but it is very unlikely.
"So tired of reading propaganda."
Is that why you regurgitate it onto forums? Kinda like purging the system, eh?
If you are going to be judging China's economic health by their pollution levels then in the future you will find yourself convinced that they have never recovered, even when it becomes inescapably obvious that they have. The fact is that China's pollution levels are never going back to 2019 levels, but that has nothing to do with their economic health.
It really never ceases to amaze me how deeply rooted and pervasive the delusions and sense of exceptionality is in America. It is woven into the thinking, from the lowest levels to the very top of their thoughts, of even the very most intelligent Americans. It is apparently a phenomenon that operates at an even deeper level than mass media brainwashing, as it seems it was just as much a problem in every empire in history. That is, I am sure citizens of the Roman Empire had the same blinding biases embedded deep below their consciousness. I guess Marx was entirely correct to say that consciousness arises from material conditions, and being citizen of an empire must be one of those material conditions that gives rise to this all-pervasive and unconscious sense of exceptionality.
Posted by: William Gruff | May 23 2020 14:25 utc | 79
Always good to hear from you, Grieved @ 55, and thank you for underlining b's link to the justworldnews article by Helena Cobhan. It's well worth mention in comments, and she leads up to her comparison between China and the US in her claim of imperial collapse for the latter thusly:
There are still about 1000 deaths per day in America. At the pinnacle of the pandemic, there were about 1500.Reopening the economy now will probably push the death rate back up towards that number, or higher. 1500 deaths per day times 30 days is 45,000 in a month. Another 90,000 in two months. We’re already at 90,000, expecting 200,000 as the pandemic slows — but it’s not going to now. You can see how quickly the numbers become apocalyptic.
The only reference we really have for such numbers is if a nuclear bomb was dropped on America.
[Her emphases]
Posted by: juliania | May 23 2020 14:37 utc | 80
lovely discussion.
Re efforts to slow down China displacing the US in high tech . . .
Another aspect is that the key high tech employees in the US are mostly immigrants (due to poor overall level of primary education in the US). The most important ones having come here around grad school let's say. For this group, the "American Dream" is very much alive, and when you're moving up in life, it's possible to just work a lot and put aside some ugly social realities.
IMO this is not compatible with an escalating conflict that puts the US into an unapologetically nationalist, anti foreigner mode.
Posted by: ptb | May 23 2020 14:41 utc | 81
Posted by: juliania | May 23 2020 14:37 utc | 80
The only reference we really have for such numbers is if a nuclear bomb was dropped on America.
[Her emphases]
What a stupid comparison. Nuclear blast would devastate land and kill indiscriminately all forms of life. This virus kills only humans and maybe few bats and cats, leaving the land intact. So it is more comparable with human deaths due to: old age, cancer, influenza, car crashes, drug overdoses and [hom/su]icides in The America.
Posted by: hopehely | May 23 2020 14:54 utc | 83
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com. 
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Thanks b.. good overview... quoting you "As an economic outlet for China, Hong Kong has lost its importance." this is so true, however the usa playing a losing game will continue to fall back to the past to try to leverage it's political ideology via what was in the past, as opposed to moving forward into the future in a responsible way.. and as you note - the covid -19 crisis has laid bare who is prepared and who isn't...
the usa is not going to give up its superpower status gracefully.. did britain?? hard to know how this unfolds moving forward..
Posted by: james | May 22 2020 18:01 utc | 1