Arms Control Diplomacy Used To Be Serious – It Has Been Replaced With Stupid Stunts
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
Talks between Russia and the United States about the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty began today. The New START treaty limits the number of nuclear capable platforms each side can deploy.
The U.S. says it wants to bring China into the negotiations. We explained at length why that does not make sense and why it is thereby not going to happen:
Russia and the U.S. both have some 6,000+ nuclear warheads. The New START Treaty between the U.S. and Russia limits the numbers of platforms - missiles, bombers and submarines - that each side can use to launch strategic nuclear weapons to some 1,400. China has less than 300 nuclear warheads and even fewer platforms from which those could be launched. The U.S. claims that China will double the number of its warheads and platforms during the next ten years but there is again zero evidence to support that claim.
Why should China, with less nuclear capabilities than France and Britain, join a treaty that would limit is meager capabilities when the U.S. and Russia both have more than twenty times its numbers. That makes no sense at all.
Marshall Billingslea, the current nominee to be Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, is leading the U.S. delegation at today's meeting in Vienna. The man is a kind of loose cannon:
"Spending the adversary into oblivion", as Billingslea's threatened, is also rumored to have a certain cost. It is quite doubtful that the U.S. is capable or willing to finance that.
Billingslea is by the way a dangerous nutter. During the Bush administration he was Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict and the civilian responsible for the war on terror and torture regime conducted by U.S. special operation forces.
If he believes that torture can help to fight terrorism, or that nuclear tests can further arms control negotiations, he might also believe that unrealistic threats of an arms race can push China into a treaty it does not want. In reality neither will work.
Today Billingslea staged this dumb act:
The U.S. delegation brought Chinese flags to the conference room in Vienna and Billingslea posted a picture of them. U.S. and Russian flags can be seen in the background. The Russian side protested (in Russian) against the nonsense. China is not part of the negotiations and its national symbols should not be there. The U.S. delegation then removed all flags, including the U.S. and Russian ones, from the conference room.
At the start fo the meeting the Russian Ambassador to Austria Dmitry Lyubinsky posted this picture which shows that all flags were removed.
China's permanent mission in Vienna tweeted a picture of Billinglea's tweet and added some snark:
Permanent Mission of China in Vienna @ChinaMissionVie - 10:41 UTC · Jun 22, 2020
US' performance art?
@mission_rf @usunvie @ArmsControlNow @globaltimesnews
The China Daily bureau chief in Europe also responded:
Chen Weihua （陈卫华）@chenweihua - 8:23 UTC · Jun 22, 2020
Replying to @USArmsControl1. US has kept quitting treaties, so it has left with no credibility. Go back to JCPOA and Paris accord before you make such argument. 2. China has 300 nukes in contrast to 6,000 by US and Russia. So unless you agree to come down to 300 or even 500, you’re not making sense.
And that is the core of the issue. The U.S. has no credibility left and is not making sense at all. Its diplomacy has been reduced to rediculous behavior.
This is not just a problem under President Trump. In 2009 then President Obama and then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton busted into a meeting the Chinese president held with other heads of governments:
President Barack Obama burst into a meeting of Chinese, Indian and Brazilian leaders to try and reach a climate agreement in late Friday negotiations in Copenhagen.
Chinese protocol officials objected to Obama's presence in the meeting, according to a senior administration official, who said that the president didn't want the leaders negotiating in secret.
In her memoir Hillary Clinton described the embarrassing incident as a great success but in fact the U.S. efforts failed as the Copenhagen conference ended only with empty promises and a nonbinding accord.
The New START negotiations will likely likewise fail. The Russian side is already expecting this:
Russia's lead envoy in the talks has told NBC News that the Kremlin does not currently believe the United States will extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, ratified by President Barack Obama in 2011 and due to expire in February.
...
[Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei] Ryabkov also said that Russia would be unable to force China to join the negotiations and was unwilling to try. He added that if Washington had concerns about Beijing’s nuclear activities, then it was up to American officials to bring the Chinese on board.“The U.S. administration currently is so obsessed with China,” he said, that it makes progress impossible. “The Chinese idea overshadows, in my view, everything else.”
The obsession with China will cost the U.S. the insights into Russia's strategic weapons that the inspection regime under New START currently allows it to have. Its own insecurity will thus only grow.
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Posted by b on June 22, 2020 at 17:25 UTC | Permalink
What's the problem? China should come to the meeting and promise to limit its number of nukes and its number of platforms to the same levels as the US and Russia. What's the problem? (snark)
Posted by: TheBAG | Jun 22 2020 18:06 utc | 2
Artful Dodger - Wikipedia
Jack Dawkins, better known as the Artful Dodger, is a character in the Charles Dickens 1838 novel Oliver Twist. The Dodger is a pickpocket, so called for his skill and cunning in that occupation. He is the leader of the gang of child criminals, trained by the elderly Fagin.
Given the Yankee predilection for pick-pocketing almost everyone on the planet, AmeriKKKa could be accurately described as the Artless Dodger in Dickens-speak.
Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Jun 22 2020 18:10 utc | 3
Imagine having neighbor like the US- unless one had no IQ the response is to prepare ones defenses for the worst.
Russia is well prepared and China is almost there, moving fast.
America and its Empire of Insanity is no longer sustainable and is a dead weight for the rest of humanity.
Posted by: AriusArmenian | Jun 22 2020 18:55 utc | 4
The American Empire is becoming more theatrical as it continues to decline.
It remembers me the Byzantine era of the Roman Empire (i.e. post-Heraclius Rome). As the military and geopolitical power of the Byzantine Empire begun to fall, so rose the amount of gold used do decorate their buildings and chambers. The goal of the usage of gold in Byzantine architectural decoration was to impress the barbarian tribes from the Danube when they visited the Byzantine court (or were visited by Byzantine diplomats) so as to give the illusion the Empire was richer and more powerful than it really was (thus giving it an extra leverage in negotiations).
Those fantastic golden mosaics we can still see today in Istanbul, therefore, are actually a monument to Roman/Byzantine terminal decline, not of its rise or rebirth.
US has also pulled out of the open sky treaty. And I believe, nuclear weapons testing. We are very much in the leadup to WWII with US being Nazi Germany.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 22 2020 19:57 utc | 6
In her memoir Hillary Clinton described the embarrassing incident as a great success but in fact the U.S. efforts failed as the Copenhagen conference ended only with empty promises and a nonbinding accord.
USA has shown that it is not interested in tackling climate change so I think Hillary is correct when she describes this as a success. It was a success for the USA establishment.
It's a bit naive to think otherwise.
!!
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jun 22 2020 20:18 utc | 7
follow-up @Jun 22 2020 20:18 utc | 7
Here's one of many examples:
It’s bad enough—more than bad enough, really—that the U.S. has failed to lead the fight against climate change. This is very nearly as true under President Barack Obama as it was under George W. Bush. As former Senator Tim Wirth, now the president of the U.N. Foundation, put it recently, “I don’t know who and where the climate leadership in the Administration is. It doesn’t exist.”
Now, by trying to block others’ attempts to tackle the problem, the U.S. is behaving in a manner that seems best described as unforgivable. Last week, in a letter to Secretaries Clinton and LaHood, the heads of several of the nation’s leading environmental groups noted that the Administration is “actively thwarting other countries’ efforts to effectively and efficiently reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” a position that is incompatible with the Administration’s own stated commitment to avoiding “a dangerous rise in global average temperatures.” The groups urged the Administration to abide by the European court’s decision, “just as the Administration would wish other nations to respect the decision of the U.S. Supreme Court.”
!!
Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jun 22 2020 20:40 utc | 8
B: Why should China, with less nuclear capabilities than France and Britain, join a treaty that would limit is meager capabilities when the U.S. and Russia both have more than twenty times its numbers. That makes no sense at all.
Strange.. Not a mention of including Israel, with its (reputed) 200 warheads and active delivery systems..Strange indeed??
Posted by: David KNZ | Jun 22 2020 21:23 utc | 9
As far as I'm concerned, Beijing should ignore Washington. I'm surprised Russia even bothered with this nonsense. Since we're talking about nukes, I've read the IAEA issued a statement about Iran's "unclaimed" nukes. Strangely, Israel was ignored by the IAEA.
Posted by: Ian2 | Jun 22 2020 21:48 utc | 10
In Yemen, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have finally taken Soqotra. Joint operation, far from the pseudo-rumours of their standing down in the Yemen war.
Posted by: Mina | Jun 22 2020 21:53 utc | 11
David KNZ | Jun 22 2020 21:23 utc | 9:
If the U.S. were to finally move to serious discussions for nuclear disarmament, as required by the NPT, then it would have good standing to embarrass any no-shows, be they China, Israel, or other.
Posted by: David G | Jun 22 2020 21:59 utc | 12
David G @ 12.
That is one big "IF".
Also not so easy to get any "good standing" when you have broken every agreement you have made.
No country I know of takes discussions with the US as "serious".
Just look at the silly photo act in B's photo above.
The ROW is not as ignorant as the US public.
Posted by: arby | Jun 22 2020 22:11 utc | 13
We have become accustomed to the threat of nuclear war sadly, but surly we are closer to it now than ever before !
The virus was no accident. The president of America beyound doubt is insane.
Anti war.com have a timely article on this subject.
The videos are a ‘must see’ not for the faint hearted !
Plus a good incite into the history of America’s lying propaganda.
Sorry about the nightmares!
Posted by: Mark2 | Jun 22 2020 22:23 utc | 14
This is relevant
https://original.antiwar.com/greg-mitchell/2020/06/21/new-film-explores-us-suppression-of-key-footage-from-hiroshima-and-nagasaki/
Posted by: Mark2 | Jun 22 2020 22:35 utc | 15
Marshall Billingslea is a petty little turd.
I guess he is the anus horribilus of Bolt-on.
The USA is not progressing here it seems. Is there a Russian or Chinese parody show with english subtitles that mocks these events?
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2020 22:45 utc | 16
David G #12
Nothing will ever embarrass Israel, not even if the Orthodox told the imposters to leave, to go home, to go away, would they be embarrassed let alone pay any attention. Loss of face is an issue but when you have no humility and an abundance of hubris you never lose face.
So it goes.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2020 22:50 utc | 17
This is relevant given the background it provides on "how things are done" in the Trump Administration...
Trump was prepared to back Israeli strike on Iran, Bolton says
Though Bolton did not mention Israel using force, Trump responded by saying that he would support Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doing so.
“You tell Bibi [Netanyahu] that if he uses force, I will back him. I told him that, but you tell him again,” Trump told Bolton.
So much for Trump not wanting to start a new war in the Middle East...
Then there's this circus:
Netanyahu told US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that he wants to speak to Trump about the possible Zarif meeting. Then Netanyahu and Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer called Bolton as well.
On the way to talk to Trump, Bolton found Trump’s Special Adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner on the phone with US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, saying that he would not allow Netanyahu’s call to go through to the president.
“When he hung up, Kushner explained he had stopped this and an earlier effort by Netanyahu because he didn’t think it was appropriate for a foreign leader to talk to Trump about whom he should speak to,” Bolton wrote.
Bolton told Trump that he thought meeting Zarif was a bad idea, in part because “once we took the pressure off Iran, it would be very hard to put it back on.” Kushner, however, thought there was nothing to lose in meeting Zarif.
“These people had an attention span no longer than the deal in front of them,” Bolton lamented about Kushner.
Of course, all of this assumes that Bolton is telling anything resembling the truth about these events. But based on his anti-Iran attitude, it seems plausible that they happened.
Meanwhile, Trump is claiming Bolton's book is "treason" and that Bolton should be in jail "for many, many years" - over the book, that is, not Bolton's crappy foreign policy blunders.
Posted by: Richard Steven Hack | Jun 22 2020 22:58 utc | 18
Peter AU1 #6
We are very much in the leadup to WWII with US being Nazi Germany.
Yes to that and with Poland slavishly leading the killer cart along the road to the Auschwitz camp cluster. Yet again.
Disgraceful. Where is the voice in Germany, Czechia, Austria, Australia, France, Finland etc...
The silence of the lambs.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 22 2020 22:59 utc | 19
thanks b... as has become clear - the usa is non-negotiable... meanwhile the poodles are asleep at the wheel hoping for a different result then ending in the ditch, where they will soon be under a rudderless non negotiable so called leader - usa....
as noted by the china daily bureau chief says - "1. US has kept quitting treaties, so it has left with no credibility. Go back to JCPOA and Paris accord before you make such argument. 2. China has 300 nukes in contrast to 6,000 by US and Russia. So unless you agree to come down to 300 or even 500, you’re not making sense." that sums it perfectly...
Posted by: james | Jun 22 2020 23:29 utc | 20
uncle tungsten @18--
IMO, voices have already spoken, in 1941 & 42, that said all that needs to be said today. I just wrote about them on the other threads--The Four Freedoms and The Century of the Common Man, but most heavily the latter. The voices from the past just need to be revamped and made vocal by one of today's two undisputed global leaders--Xi or Putin. And they should be articulated at this years UNGA Debate.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2020 23:31 utc | 21
Richard Steven Hack 17
I believe that is what the US Israeli Russian meeting in Jerusalem was about. Israel and US wanted Russia to stand aside while they attacked Iran. Putin earlier had stated any nuclear attack on an ally, no matter how small will be considered a nuclear attack on the Russian Federation. In the presser after that meeting, the Russian envoy felt the need to specifically and publicly state that Iran is an ally of Russia.
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 22 2020 23:38 utc | 22
Mina
Last I read, there had been a 'coup' and southern separatists had booted the Saudi's out. Still seems to be the latest news.
"(Reuters) - Southern separatists have seized control of Yemen’s island of Socotra in the Arabian Sea, deposing its governor and driving out forces of the Saudi-backed government which condemned the action as coup."
Posted by: Peter AU1 | Jun 22 2020 23:46 utc | 23
re Posted by: Mina | Jun 22 2020 21:53 utc | 11
Despite this being the wrong thread for this, I thought I should point out that Saudi Arabia is in nio way associated with the illegal seizure of Soqotra which is a last desperate attempt to grab something out of the mess they created in Yemen.
Control of Soqotra means control of the three major Gulf shipping lanes which has always been UAE's primary objective. Yemeni ports would be good but the thought of those dreadful shia being in a position to dominate Gulf shipping because of Soqotra's location is what really upsets the UAE & amerikan 'interests'.
This has forced the Saudis to try and cut a deal by getting their puppets in the Riyadh controlled Yemeni government to ask for a meeting.
The UAE puppets, aka STC, are running a line that they are 'southern separatists' but this doesn't suit Saudi at all as were Yemen to be split down the middle, that would leave the real Yemeni government called "Houthi" by western media, firmly in control of the north and the chance for Saudi to steal all the new oil fields from Northern Yemen gone.
Posted by: A User | Jun 22 2020 23:59 utc | 24
karlof1 #20
The voices from the past just need to be revamped and made vocal by one of today's two undisputed global leaders--Xi or Putin. And they should be articulated at this years UNGA Debate.
I believe there needs to be a strong UNGA motion affirming peaceful dispute settlement, condemning economic sanctions as a weapon against states, demanding the lifting of all illegal sanctions, the walking away from functioning treaties and condemning any nation outside of the IAEA and non signatories to the IPCW treaty.
Name and shame the refusniks to these propositions at EVERY session.
Posted by: uncle tungsten | Jun 23 2020 1:32 utc | 25
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
If Ryabkov's leading Russia's delegation, the negotiations will go nowhere since he'll take no BS from the Outlaw US Empire, who Putin just warned in his backhanded manner about the necessity of adhering to International Law, something it steadfastly refuses to do. The treaty will lapse and the world will become more dangerous, but it's the Outlaw Empire that's 20 years behind in weapons development and has enormous fiscal problems, not Russia. Imperial bluster will continue because that's the only game it has.
Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 22 2020 17:46 utc | 1