Pompeo’s UN Move Against Iran Will Fail. Why Is He Still Pressing It?

DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is pushing at the United Nations to prolong the arms embargo against Iran. Under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which solved the issue of Iran's civil nuclear program, the current arms embargo will be lifted in October.

The U.S., which has left the JCPoA agreement, is using nonsensical arguments to force a renewed embargo. Other UN Security Council veto veto members will obviously reject the move. Pompeo's actions do not have the purpose to achieve something. They are campaign material targeted at a domestic audience.

Part of Pompeo's campaign is a push of 'scary Iran' propaganda.

Here is one example:

Secretary Pompeo @SecPompeo - 16:59 UTC · Jun 23, 2020

If the @UN Arms Embargo on Iran expires in October, Iran will be able to buy new fighter aircraft like Russia’s SU-30 and China’s J-10. With these highly lethal aircraft, Europe and Asia could be in Iran’s crosshairs. The U.S. will never let this happen.

The tweet came with an attached map that shows the maximum distance the planes Iran might buy can fly at cruise altitude until they run out of gas.

Pompeo is suggesting that Iran will spend tens of millions on planes, fly them unopposed through the radar coverage of several countries, to let Iranian Kamikaze pilots crash them into some temple in Nepal.

This does not make any sense. No foreign politician will be impressed by this 'argument'. Pompeo's tweet is for consumption at home.

At the UN the U.S. is trying to get a new arms embargo resolution against Iran:

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump introduced a long-awaited U.N. Security Council (UNSC) draft resolution extending an arms embargo on Iran that is due to expire in October, setting the stage for a great-power clash and likely veto in the U.N.’s principal security body, according to a copy of the draft obtained by Foreign Policy.
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If passed, the resolution would fall under Chapter VII of the U.N. charter, making it legally binding and enforceable. But the U.S. measure, according to several U.N. Security Council diplomats, stands little chance of being adopted by the 15-nation council.
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Some council diplomats and other nonproliferation experts see the U.S. move as a way to score political points at home, not to do anything about Iran’s destabilizing activities in the region.

“The skeptic in me says that the objective of this exercise is to go through the arms embargo resolution, and when it fails, to use that as an excuse to get a snapback of the embargo, and if and when that fails too, to use as a political talking point in the election campaign,” said Mark Fitzpatrick, a former State Department nonproliferation official now at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Since China and Russia are almost certain to ignore any U.N. arms embargo forced by U.S. maneuvers, the practical impact on Iran’s ability to cause mischief will be minimal, he said.

“It’s not actually about stopping any arms from China and Russia, it’s about winning a political argument,” he said.

We explained that the U.S. does not have a 'snapback' option. Russia and China have also clarified that:

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and the Chinese government’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, both wrote to the 15-member council and U.N. chief Antonio Guterres as the United States threatens to spark a so-called sanctions snapback under the Iran nuclear deal, even though Washington quit the accord in 2018.

Lavrov wrote in the May 27 letter, made public this week, that the United States was being “ridiculous and irresponsible.”

“This is absolutely unacceptable and serves only to recall the famous English proverb about having one’s cake and eating it,” Lavrov wrote.

Washington has threatened to trigger a return of U.N. sanctions on Iran if the Security Council does not extend an arms embargo due to expire in October under Tehran’s deal with world powers to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons.
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Lavrov cited a 1971 International Court of Justice opinion, which found that a fundamental principle governing international relationships was that “a party which disowns or does not fulfill its own obligations cannot be recognized as retaining the rights which it claims to derive from the relationship.”

Despite the evident failure to convince others the U.S. continues to make stupid arguments:

Russia and China will be isolated at the United Nations if they continue down the “road to dystopia” by blocking a U.S. bid to extend a weapons ban on Iran, U.S. Iran envoy Brian Hook told Reuters ahead of his formal pitch of the embargo to the U.N. Security Council on Wednesday.
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“We see a widening gap between Russia and China and the international community,” Hook said in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday evening.

The U.S. has left the JCPoA deal and can not claim a right under that deal to snap back the sanctions that the deal has lifted. It is the U.S. that is isolated. Even its allies do not support the attempt:

“We firmly believe that any unilateral attempt to trigger UN sanctions snapback would have serious adverse consequences in the UNSC,” the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany said in a statement on June 19. “We would not support such a decision which would be incompatible with our current efforts to preserve the JCPoA.”

The Trump policy against Iran has failed. He has tried a 'maximum pressure' campaign to blackmail Iran into more concessions. But despite sanctions and economic problems caused by them Iran is not willing to talk with him. Its conditions for talks are clear:

“We have no problem with talks with the U.S., but only if Washington fulfils its obligations under the nuclear deal, apologies and compensates Tehran for its withdrawal from the 2015 deal,” Rouhani said in a televised speech.

The U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East, including the new sanctions against Syria under the 'Ceasar's Law', have been helping Iran to strengthen its position:

Iran is reaping huge benefits, including more robust allies and resistant strongholds as a result of the US’s flawed Middle Eastern policies. Motivated by the threat of the implementation of “Caesar’ Law”, Iran has prepared a series of steps to sell its oil and finance its allies, bypassing depletion of its foreign currency reserves.

Iranian companies found in Syria a paradise for strategic investment and offered the needed alternative to a Syrian economy crippled by sanctions and nine years of war. Iran considers Syria a fertile ground to expand its commerce and business like never before.

With Iran's influence growing and Russia making inroads even with once staunch U.S. allies like Saudi Arabia it seems that real U.S. influence in the Middle East is on a decisive downturn.

Whatever Pompous Pompeo says or tweets will not change that. But there's a sucker born every minute. Some of those may still fall for the stuff he says.

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Posted by b on June 24, 2020 at 17:10 UTC | Permalink

Escobar reports, which is behind a new paywall that I noted on the open thread, that Iran's coping well with COVID-19:

"Hashemi notes another facet: 'The Covid-19 crisis was so massive that people themselves have pitched in with effort, revealing new levels of solidarity. Individuals, civil society groups and others have set up a range of initiatives seeking to help the government and health workers on the front line of countering the pandemic'...

"'Moreover, harvests last year and this year have been positive. We are more self-reliant,' Marandi said....

"The entire Iranian economy is thus in transition. What’s particularly interesting is the boom in manufacturing, with companies focusing way beyond Iran’s large domestic market towards exports. They are turning the massive devaluation of the rial to their advantage.

"In 2019-20, Iran’s non-oil exports reached $41.3 billion. That exceeded oil exports for the first time in Iran’s post-revolutionary history. Roughly half of these non-oil exports were manufactured goods."

Pompeo's rants and raves are those of a desperate desperado. Look for Iran to send more tankers to Venezuela as the recent venture represented a test that went very well:

"The Oil Ministry in Tehran is already planning a round two of deliveries to Caracas, sending two or three cargos full of gasoline a month."

Ha! Who's putting pressure on whom?! Also in stark contrast with Iran, the Gulf Monarchies have sustained great damage from the COVID-19 torpedo:

"Workers from Pakistan and India are leaving the Persian Gulf in droves. Dubai is dead."

IMO, there's a much better chance for the HOPE initiative now than before. It's hard to tell whether Trump's blinding Pompeo or vice-versa, but neither's capable of doing something positive in that region.

Posted by: karlof1 | Jun 24 2020 18:16 utc | 5

But despite sanctions and economic problems caused by them Iran is not willing to talk with him.

Also consider the ambush and assassination of a top general via a drone strike.

Posted by: snow_watcher | Jun 24 2020 18:51 utc | 6

The yanks wants to keep constant pressure on Iran and now more than ever..Despite the fact that Iran acted always in defensive and righteous attitude, yanks think that someday Iranians will make a first move under this daily pressure(this will never happen in my opinion).At the same time there will be a new zionist season in Palestine and this will have a impact on Iran too.Continuing to strangle the country with sanctions is mostly part of this zionist strategy.

Posted by: LuBa | Jun 24 2020 19:00 utc | 7

The CIA, US State Department, and MIC Mafia run by "Fat Mike" don't like any competition and are attempting to gin up hate for Iran at the behest of their anglozionist masters. This country has no shame.

Posted by: Tonymike | Jun 24 2020 19:11 utc | 8

Why are they still going through with it, even if, they know it’s not going to pass?
It’s ideological. Simple as that. People in USG go to bed thinking: Have we sanctioned Iran enough today? That gives them a rise, so when they fall asleep and dream, it will have a cool moist feeling.
We have one of those commenting here. You know who he is. He always pines for Iranian babies’ blood, ready to send them their 72 virgins.
I was going to highlight a quote from another site, but I see b already beat me to it: “It’s not actually about stopping any arms from China and Russia, it’s about winning a political argument”

That’s what winning looks like in DC nowadays.

Posted by: Sakineh Bagoom | Jun 24 2020 19:22 utc | 9

thanks b...

@ 7 luba.. is it the yanks, or israel?? looks like both of them, oh and israel bombed syria again yesterday ( no confirmed sources yet) which you won't hear about in the western msm..

@ 8 tonymike.. totally agree..

and in the pr dept - "We see a widening gap between Russia and China and the international community,” Hook said in an interview with Reuters on Tuesday evening." nope... the usa would like to see this, but only the usa is seeing this as they continue to be incapable of abiding or honouring a wide array of international agreements... why not just get your citizenry to bash the UN? try that tack... maybe it can work some...

Posted by: james | Jun 24 2020 19:23 utc | 10

There is no difference for me and there never was in the last 100 years..You can choose the name but it's for sure they would like to remove the "Sciite threat" probably the last flag against zionism.

Posted by: LuBa | Jun 24 2020 20:17 utc | 11

"Why Is He Still Pressing It?"

Probably to secure more donations from Sheldon Adelson.

Posted by: Edward | Jun 24 2020 20:21 utc | 12

Why Is He Still Pressing It?

USA is pressing many countries. Pressure is being applied across the board against any country that is independent of the Empire or will not bend to the will of the Empire. We all know the main targets: Venezuela, North Korea, Syria, Russia, China, Yemen, Palestinians, Taliban.

One might well add Nicaragua, Cuba, and Bolivia to the list as well. After the Bolivia coup, the country:

... announced the formal departure from the country of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) and breaking all diplomatic relations with Venezuela's Maduro government, recognizing Juan Guaidó as acting president of Venezuela in the Venezuelan presidential crisis....

In January 2020, the interim government suspended relations with Cuba ...

Germany and EU are being pressured too. USA does not want Russian energy imports to Europe and wants Europe to pay more for NATO.

We don't recognize this as WWIII (yet) because each is in a different stage/type of war: Cold War, trade war, hybrid war, undeclared war, propaganda war, etc. Only the wars in Yemen and afghanistan are considered to be an actual 'shooting war'. But we hardly ever hear about them.

This brings to mind the adage: the beatings will continue until morale improves. And for the Empire's power-elite, morale is never sufficient. Until they have full and absolute control over the entire planet and are worshiped by the masses as demi-gods, they will always have a nagging fear that their rule may be challenged.

Zionism, neoliberalism, and neoconservativism are the diseased ideologies ("secular religion") of the the AZ Empire that cause a insatiable hunger for POWER and fevered PARANOIA (fear of losing power) that are leading us to ruin.

!!

Posted by: Jackrabbit | Jun 24 2020 20:22 utc | 13

Gotta remember that--freighteningly--Pomepeo is a wingnut christer, and they're bent on starting a world war so as to bring on their end times fantasy, so if the US won't start one with Iran, there's always the Persia v India play.

Posted by: Jay | Jun 24 2020 21:06 utc | 14

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About the author(s)

"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor.  This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community.  Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.