The Epidemic And Hezbollah Add To Netanyahoo’s Problems

DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

Pompeo and Netanyahu: two criminal peas in the same imperial pod. But who is more odious? Impossible to tell.

The Israeli government under Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahoo faces two crises. Hezbollah, the Lebanese resistance organization, has announced to take revenge for one of its soldiers Israel killed.  A botched handling of the Covid-19 epidemic by the government has come under much criticism. Together with the criminal proceedings against Netanyahoo either could lead to his fall.

Yesterday Israel claimed that Hezbollah soldiers had crossed its northern border but were pushed back:

Israeli forces on Monday exchanged fire with Hezbollah militants along the volatile Israeli-Lebanese frontier, as Israeli civilians living in the area were ordered to remain indoors amid the heaviest fighting between the bitter enemies in nearly a year.

The fighting occurred in an area known as Chebaa Farms, which was captured by Israel in the 1967 Middle East war and is claimed by Lebanon. Residents of southern Lebanon near the border reported Israeli shelling that continued for more than an hour.

The fighting came as Israel was on heightened alert for a possible attack by Hezbollah, after an Israeli airstrike in Syria killed a Hezbollah militant last week. Israel has carried out dozens of airstrikes in Syria in recent years, targeting what it says are Iranian weapons shipments bound for Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had promised that his organization would take revenge for each of its soldiers killed in Israeli attacks in Syria. Knowing that some hit will come the Israeli army was put on high alert and additional forces were moved towards the border area.

But the long nervous guarding of the border while waiting for Hezbollah's hit must have induced some hallucinations. There was no Hezbollah there:

Hezbollah said its fighters were not involved in any fighting along the border with Israel.

In a statement following the clashes, the group said all claims by Israeli media about an infiltration attempt by Hezbollah into Israel "are not true at all, and are attempts to invent illusive victories."

Hezbollah said the group's retaliation for its member killed by an Israeli strike in Syria "is definitely coming, and the Zionists should remain waiting for the punishment for their crimes."

The Israeli army claims it has footage of the incident:

Israeli defense officials scoffed at the terror group’s denial, saying the infiltration attempt had been filmed by military security cameras and that the operatives who took part in it were armed. The Israel Defense Forces said it was considering releasing the footage from the incident.

But a day after the incident no footage has been released. The Israeli press is suspicious about the army's claim:

This alleged attempted attack was somewhat peculiar, occurring in the middle of the afternoon when visibility is highest and in an area that — even when border tensions aren’t running high — is under constant surveillance as it has regularly been the site of Hezbollah attacks on Israeli troops. Under those conditions, success would be unlikely. According to the military, the Hezbollah operatives never fired a shot during their infiltration.
...
Israel, for some reason, has not sought to disprove Hezbollah’s denial by releasing its security camera footage of the Hezbollah operatives, which would at least prove if armed men indeed infiltrated into Israeli territory from Lebanon.

Commentators seem to believe Hezbollah's statements more then their own army's pronouncement:

In this day and age, everything is filmed. So where is the footage of the infiltrators crossing into Israel? Where is the drone footage of the area at the time of the incident?
...
Neither side has released anything, and the Israeli public is now questioning whether anything actually happened.

Responding to skepticism that already was emerging Monday evening, Amos Yadlin, former head of IDF Military Intelligence, said he believed the IDF more than Hezbollah and its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who he said is a liar and manipulator.

But the IDF does not get off scot-free. It has manipulated events in the past, and journalists and the public are justified to question what happened on Monday.

What most likely happened is that some nervous Israeli soldiers shot at some moving twigs. The question is who or what moved those twigs.

Keeping the Israeli army on alert is a cheap way for Hezbollah to gain an advantage.

After an uncontrolled reopening from a lockdown Israel was hit by a much larger second outbreak of Covid-19.

Its current level of 186 average new cases per 1 million population is nearly as high as the current U.S. count.

The racist Israel government will never get the Covid-19 epidemic under control unless it coordinates with the Palestinian government so that both can take common measures. But instead of doing that it destroys Covid-19 test facilities the Palestinians have build and hinders their procurement of equipment and medicines. There are many daily contacts between the Jewish population and the Palestinian people. Israel's government seems not to understand that one can not control an epidemic for only one half of a population.

The Israeli government is now haggling with the parliament over new restrictions. The experts are desperate. The people are furious with Netanyahoo. There have been regular demonstrations in front of his home as well as clashes with the police.

The current Israeli coalition government is unstable and could easily break apart.

Under these circumstance Hezbollah has the time on its side. There will probably more moving twigs and more nervous soldiers who will shot at them. The "Hollywood army", as Nasrallah has called the Israeli Defense Forces, can then claim more victories.

But after a few weeks its soldiers will lower their guard. They will become more careless and make mistakes. That will be the right moment to take revenge.

Hezbollah does not expect that it will cause a war:

"The atmosphere does not indicate a war ... It's unlikely, the atmosphere of war in the next few months," [Hezbollah deputy leader] Sheikh Naim Qassem said in an interview with pro-Damascus television station al Mayadeen.
...
"There is no change of rules of engagement and the deterrent equation with Israel exists and we are not planning to change it," Qassem said.

The Israeli government is not in a position that allows it to wage a war against Hezbollah and to absorb the hundreds of rockets per day that would rain down on Israel's forces. That would be the end of Netanyahoo's government.

That gives Hezbollah the chance to select the kind and timing of its revenge for the greatest political effect. One wonders what Nasrallah has in mind.

Posted by b on July 28, 2020 at 16:58 UTC | Permalink

[premium_newsticker id="213661"]