This Week in China: Mike Pompeo’s Great Firewall; Will Microsoft buy all of TikTok?; More Uyghur stories (from Uyghurs); Economy booms; the Taiwan Reunification Challenge, and much more

People giving a warm sendoff to new destroyer. China's navy (PLAN) continues to expand and modernize. Its construction rate is unmatched around the globe. Taiwan has impressive military assets for a nation its size, but it is not even remotely a match to what Beijing can deploy. Thus, reunification by force could turn out to be smooth or bloody, depending on the degree of meddling by foreign powers.

Gleanings from the Middle Kingdom

The size of China’s displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance. It is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world.  – Lee Kwan Yew.

This week’s madness:

• Mike Pompeo's Great Firewall. Is this goodbye? Or au revoir?
• Will Microsoft buy all of TikTok?
• How Western Media create China 'experts'
• Killer charts, videos, surveys
• Economy booms
• More Uyghur stories (from Uyghurs)
• Mekong River drought: the real story.
• Australian schizophrenia (cont'd)
• Killing Competition, by Wamika Kapur
• China in Africa: short and sweet.

How Did China Succeed? A Talk by Professor Joseph E. Stiglitz: https://youtu.be/Iaw4n9IZDdc

The Economy

• • Exports surged 7.2 per cent in July, with shipments well ahead of analysts’ expectations. Strong shipments of medical supplies, electronics and ‘work-from-home equipment’ power July’s boom, with exporters capitalising on lockdowns overseas. [MORE]

China is a Refuge for US Companies: U.S. companies, including Nike and Tesla, have been buoyed by strong results from China; ‘a model of recovery’. In earnings calls for the quarter, CEOs from some of America's best-known brands singled out China for salvaging what otherwise was a rough three months.[MORE]

• Facebook generates 10% of its advertising revenue through its China advertising agency, making it one of the largest sources of revenue. An advertising agency in China, Meet Social, also represents Instagram, Google, YouTube, Twitter, Pinterest, Snapchat, and LinkedIn.[MORE]
• Remember those 150,000,000 high-spending Chinese tourists? Guess where they're spending their money now? China’s small factory activity strengthened in July to highest level since January 2011. Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 52.8 in July from 51.2 in June, with a reading above 50 signifying growth. In last week's HCC we reported the same positive outlook for large manufacturers. [MORE]
• Foreign investors bought 58% more Chinese bonds in July, the largest monthly increase this year, reaching RMB 234 billion–up from RMB 148 billion in June.” No wonder. Relatively safe Chinese Government Bonds (CGBs), yielding close to 3%, seem like a steal.[TRIVIUM]
• China’s biggest chipmaker, SMIC, reports a sixfold profit spike to $138m in second quarter and is set for a massive IPO. SMIC plans to replace American ICs in China. 
• China's July trade surplus with U.S. was $32.46 billion [MORE]
• China is home to four of the world’s five largest unicorns, led by Alibaba’s Ant Group, which has a US$150 billion valuation. The total value of all known unicorns in the world is US$1.9 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of Italy. [MORE]
• Vehicle sales rose 15% in July. Sales of sedans, SUVs, and commercial vehicles increased to 2.08 million units, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said. [MORE]
• Tesla’s made-in-China cars are quality market leaders while Tesla’s US-made vehicles are scoring the lowest for quality. The average passenger car in China gets 37.2 quality complaints per 10,000 cars over the last quarter. Over the same period, Made-in-China Model 3 only received 0.7 complaints – topping the chart.[MORE]

The Great American Firewall

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's ‘Clean Network’ Initiative legitimizes Beijing’s concept of “internet sovereignty. The Great American Firewall seems designed to create two separate economies, One revolving  around the US and the other around China. The US' five areas of focus are:

1. Clean Carrier: Pompeo has urged politicians to place pressure on the FCC to remove licences granted to China Telecom Americas, China Unicom Americas, Pacific Networks, and ComNet. The licences allow the Chinese telecoms operators to work with corporations to move data between the US and other nations
2. Clean Store: The US Government will attempt to cleanse app stores in the US from any application where the developer has a parent company based in China
3. Clean Apps: Pompeo has called on all US developers to remove their applications from Chinese smartphones and ecosystems, such as the Huawei OS which it is building as an alternative to Android. This order would also extend to the likes of OnePlus, Xiaomi, OPPO and ZTE.
4. Clean Cloud: The State Department will attempt to inhibit the commercial capabilities of Chinese cloud companies in the US. Alibaba, Baidu and Tencent are companies specifically mentioned by Pompeo
5. Clean Cable: Finally, the US will attempt to inhibit the ability of Huawei Marine to provide subsea cables, as well as convincing other nations and companies not to use suppliers who are Chinese or have Chinese parent companies.[MORE]

President Trump has prohibited  US companies from conducting transactions with TikTok and WeChat, along with their China-based owners ByteDance and Tencent. The executive order accuses WeChat of allowing “the Chinese Communist Party access to Americans’ personal and proprietary information” and “censor[ing] content that the Chinese Communist Party deems politically sensitive.” The Tencent-owned messaging app “may also be used for disinformation campaigns that benefit the Chinese Communist Party.” The order cites restrictions on WeChat in Australia and India as precedents.[MORE]

Why would the US government care so much about such a seemingly innocuous app? Trump has fixated on TikTok, it appears, because of its reported use by young online activists to organize spurious reservations to his Tulsa rally—contributing to his humiliation when the sparse attendance failed to match his boastful expectations. Trump’s use of the power of the federal government to punish media outlets he perceives as having crossed him is part of a disturbing pattern of contempt for the First Amendment’s protection of the press. [MORE].

Microsoft expands TikTok takeover ambitions to entire global business: “Microsoft had been attracted to the idea of buying all of TikTok’s global business by the difficulty of separating back-office functions such as HR and to ensure that TikTok users in one country could still use the app if they traveled to another.”[FT] Why would Microsoft want 100% of TikTok?

1. Because the short video app raked in $102.5 million in revenue last month, 8.6 times higher than its earnings for the same period last year. Despite losing India, which was responsible for a third of its global downloads, TikTok remains the world’s highest-earning non-game app.
2. Because it continued to be the world’s most downloaded non-game app in July, with 65 million installs.During the period, the U.S. accounted for 9.7% of TikTok’s global downloads, replacing India as the app’s biggest source of downloads.
3. Because TikTok is launching its first data center in Europe with a $500 million investment, expected to open in 2021, with the promise of hundreds of jobs, improvement of “the safeguarding and protection of TikTok user data” and shorter loading times for Europen users.[MORE]
4. Because TikTok is the world's youngest, most valuable unicorn ever: $100,000,000,000 – one-hundred billion dollars.

Covid Corner

• China will not accept so-called independent observation of human rights in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. It is only some countries' trick to crack down against countries who are different from theirs and it will not bring justice but only indulge those rumor-mongers, the Chinese Embassy in France said Sunday in response to France's recent suggestion of a UN-led observer mission to evaluate the treatment of the Uygurs in Xinjiang. [MORE]
• Police in Melbourne, Australia can now enter people’s homes without a warrant and perform ‘spot checks’ to enforce compliance with new coronavirus lockdown rules. People were told they must stay in the residence in which they slept the previous night for the next six weeks. Anyone who violates the new rules faces a fine of up to $1,652, an amount set to be increased. [MORE]
• "Too much of both the private and governmental responses to date have aimed at returning to normal, but that 'normal' contained the seeds of the disaster that brought us to the present situation. Instead, major structural changes in national economies, world trade, and finance need to be decided and implemented. Chief among these is a much less unequal global distribution of wealth and income.  Moreover, this must include changes in enterprise organization so that modern capitalism’s tendency to deepening inequalities of wealth and income is not allowed to resume its socially divisive functions. [MORE]
• 

Censorship

Twitter has begun labeling the accounts of government representatives and media as “state-affiliated.” Their tweets and profiles will now display the text “state-affiliated media” and the name of the country together with a small icon that resembles a toilet. YouTube said it had deleted more than 2,500 YouTube channels with links to China “as part of its effort to weed out disinformation.” 

• Who gets labeled? “Accounts of key government officials, including foreign ministers, institutional entities, ambassadors, official spokespeople, and key diplomatic leaders,” and “accounts belonging to state-affiliated media entities, their editors-in-chief, and/or their senior staff.” It seems that any investment or involvement from state entities is enough to warrant the label. The account of Caixin, the independent-minded business magazine often cited as China’s only remaining media organization willing to do investigative work (and, disclosure, SupChina’s partner for the Caixin-Sinica Business Brief podcast) is labeled as state-affiliated. Caixin has taken investments from state-owned China Media Capital and Zhejiang Daily Press Group.  
• Who does not get labeled? “State-financed media organizations with editorial independence, like the BBC in the UK or NPR in the U.S.”  Meanwhile, Google has deleted “more than 2,500 YouTube channels tied to China as part of its effort to weed out disinformation,” per Reuters.
• The channels “were removed between April and June ‘as part of our ongoing investigation into coordinated influence operations linked to China.’”
• “These channels mostly uploaded spammy, non-political content, but a small subset posted political content,” according to Google.  
• Google did not identify the deleted channels.  See Weekend Reading #3, below, on this.

In a BBC interview, a Uyghur woman named Zumrat Dawut claimed she was "detained in re-education camp" and "her father died recently from unclear reason during detention by the Xinjiang government." But the fact is she never studied in any vocational education and training center in Xinjiang and her father stayed with the family until he died on October 12, 2019 of heart disease. She also claimed she was forced to undergo a hysterectomy. But she gave birth to a third child at a hospital in Urumqi in Xinjiang in 2013, and the hospital gave her a Caesarean section and tubal ligation and never removed her uterus, the embassy said. After the report, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called for a UN-led observer mission to evaluate the treatment of the group, media reported. [MORE] See Weekend Reading #3, below, on this.

Kai-Fu Lee, who was head of Google China before Google left China in 2010, compared the treatment of Google in China with that of TikTok in the U.S: "When Google exited China, I had already left the company. However, the environment and regulations were very clear:

1. Foreign internet companies that want to enter the Chinese market need to comply with laws and regulations, which are described very clearly (joint venture, ICP certificate, servers in China, content, etc.). Those who are willing to observe these laws can apply to enter. Google entered in just this way.
2. When Google later felt unwilling to observe these laws, it decided to leave.
3. The U.S. did not lay out what TikTok would need to do to continue operating, and never gave any evidence whatsoever to back up its accusations about the company. Forcing the company’s sale, giving only 45 days to do so, and charging a middleman’s fee — these things are not only incomparable to Google, but inconceivable. [MORE]

US border agents carried out 1,147 searches of Chinese nationals’ electronic devices in 2019, a rise of 66 per cent from the previous year, data shows. The increased searches coincide with the Justice Department’s launch of its ‘China Initiative’ in November 2018 targeting suspected theft of trade secrets.[MORE]

Environment

China accounts for 25% of the global net increase in leaf area with only 6.6% of global vegetated area. –NASA. Video: https://youtu.be/HP-iBKeqcF0

China suffered the most from a severe drought along the Lancang-Mekong River in 2019, hydrology researchers found, in contrast with allegations by some foreign researchers which blamed China for the drought in countries on lower reaches of the river. Scholars from Tsinghua University's Centre for International Transboundary Water and Eco-Security and researchers from the Department of Hydraulics at China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research collected hydro meteorological data covering both upstream and downstream areas and utilized state-of-the-art methods to investigate the drought's effects on the LMRB and the impact of reservoir regulation on stream flow. More than 10 global experts from the US, UK, LMRB countries, and cross-national organizations at an virtual international seminar acknowledged on Tuesday the sound research methods and evidence used in the Chinese scholars' research on the main causes of the severe regional drought in 2019. They agreed that cascade reservoirs along the Lancang River helped alleviate the drought downstream. The report's conclusion echoed the Mekong River Commission - an inter-governmental river basin organization - which concluded in November 2019 that the drought was caused by insufficient rainfall during the wet season with a delayed arrival and earlier departure of the monsoon rain, and an El Niño event that led to abnormally high temperatures and high evapotranspiration. [MORE]  

Belt & Road

• China pledged to invest $5.8 billion in the construction of the Moscow-Kazan High Speed Railway. The railway will be extended to China through Kazakhstan. The total cost of the Moscow-Kazan high speed railroad project is $21.4 billion. [MORE]
• The Boten–Vientiane railway (the China-Laos railway) will be Laos' first railway. Its 414 km will connect Kunming in China to Vientiane in Laos.  Thailand is preparing to build a railway connecting to this line and make it possible to travel from Bangkok to China by train. Work began on Christmas Day, 2016 and is expected to be completed by the end of 2021. The line has 258.5 kilometres of bridges and tunnels. Trains will run at 160 km/h between Boten and Vang Vieng, and 200 km/h between Vang Vieng and Vientiane. Cargo trains will travel at 120 km/h. [SUBSCRIBE TO LIVING IN ASIA]
• The Port of Beirut poses the biggest geostrategic threat to American power projection because China's Silk Road is fast creeping towards the docks at Beirut Port. The US, having recently forced Israel to cancel its Haifa rail contract with China, has dampened the Chinese advance in the eastern Mediterranean, and what remains now in the path of the US is the Beirut Port. The US must either invade it to block the Chinese geostrategic mission creep, or else destroy it.[MORE]
• Before the explosion, China promised to refurbish Beirut Port. Watch this space to see what happens next and remember, Beirut is the terminus of the Belt and Road running from Shanghai through Xian to Iran to the Mediterranean and back to Shanghai by sea. A very big deal indeed.
• The Caspian Sea is becoming an alternative to the Suez for shipping between Europe and China, and a great deal of activity is taking place there. Four major Belt & Road routes and one significant Indian route make up the five East-West intersections that the Caspian is shortly to provide, with the potential for a sixth should plans to create a canal between the Caspian and Black Seas come to fruition. [Download Chris Devonshire-Ellis' Report] 

Australian Schizophrenia

Australia’s record China trade surplus. Exports to China boomed in the first half of 2020, increasing the trade surplus by almost 20% to $10b. Chinese tourists contribute $12b to Australia economy, Chinese students contributed another $12b each year. Read on to find out what happened next! 

• Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison* has stated that war between the two was now possible and called for an alliance of Indo-Pacific nations to combat the rising threat of China globally and in the South China Sea. Mr Morrison said: “We’ve acknowledged that what was previously inconceivable and not considered even possible or likely in terms of those types of outcomes is not considered in those contexts anymore. [MORE] *When PM Morrison last  spoke on the phone with US President Donald Trump, Mr. Morrison suggested that they kneel and pray together.
• A likely explanation for this contradictory worldview among Australian policymakers is the possibility that deep-pocketed lobbyists from Washington still hold more sway over Australia's political levers than Australian businesses and certainly the Australian public - and plan to collectively squeeze Australia for billions in arms sales for missiles and other weapon systems pointed at what is otherwise Australia's largest and most important economic partner - China.[MORE]
• The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, DFAT, joined the anti-China  push with misleading advice about Hong Kong's new security laws. DFAT Travel Advice of 28 July 2020: "You may be at increased risk of detention on vaguely defined national security grounds. You could break the law without intending to. If you’re concerned about the new law, reconsider your need to remain in Hong Kong. We advise: Do not travel to Hong Kong.[MORE]
• "It is well known that China can order Chinese communications companies to hand over their customers' data. This is why Australia is contemplating banning the Chinese-owned video-sharing platform TikTok, which is popular with teenagers around the globe – except in China, where it's not available. [in reality, TikTok is China's most popular app. Ed.]  A bill before Australia's Parliament gives the government the right to force companies in other countries to hand over data. The FBI and a wide range of American law-enforcement and security bodies have reciprocal rights to access private data held by Australian people and corporations." As Woody Allen said, "No matter how cynical you get, you can't keep up." [MORE]
• Australian intelligence agencies investigate Chinese-owned TikTok over security concerns. ASIO is concerned that TikTok may be sharing data about cat videos with Chinese authorities.[MORE] 
• The Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported on Tuesday that two Australia-China foundation board members appointed by an Australian senator receive financial backing from the US government. One of them, Maree Ma, runs a Chinese-language newspaper with a strong editorial leaning against the Communist Party of China (CPC) and closely affiliated with the cult Falun Gong. [MORE]

China in Africa

W. Gyude Moore, former Minister of Public Works of Liberia, tweeted this thread: 

As deputy chief of staff to President Sirleaf, I once took my team to one of the urban slums to talk about the government’s programs. I highlighted our human rights, anti-corruption and road building record. When I was done, one of the listeners raised his hand to ask a question. He wanted to know if he could “cook these things and feed them to his children.” He was unimpressed with my response. Bread and butter issues, meeting people’s direct needs can never be substituted.

Which brings me to the coming confrontation — economic first, but increasingly dangerous, between China and the West. Africa will be drawn into this as China will definitely continue to look to Africa’s 54-bloc for support and legitimacy for its actions.  

The West too will lean on African governments, leveraging development aid and access to their markets to ensure compliance. In the middle of this will be talk of “shared values” with Africa. And it is talk of shared values that reminded me of the question in the slum.  

Do we have “shared values”? For centuries the West ran amok across Africa – slavery, colonialism, neo-colonialism, transfer pricing and the continued extraction of the continent’s natural endowments at a steep discount. What does Africa have to show for this engagement?  

I mean, we wear suits, have Western sounding names, use French, English and Portuguese as national languages. But really, what else? The continent has always been good as a source of raw material — free labor, minerals or agricultural products.  

There has never been a continental-scale infrastructure building program for Africa’s railways, roads, ports, water filtration plants and power stations. Not until the arrival of the Chinese. How is it that the oldest railway connecting two countries in Africa is Chinese-built?…

…Where is the European or American equivalent/alternative to China’s BRI? Where is it? If Chinese loans are deceptive and are a trap and are wrong — where are the Western alternatives?… Over the last seven months, Western governments have spent trillions — that’s with a “T” propping up their economies, paying people to stay at home, enforcing rent moratoriums and loan standstills. The U.S. has spent over $6 trillion in wars over the last two decades.

So we know that the West can match and exceed China’s BRI if it wanted to. By 2027, BRI is supposed to amount to about $1 trillion. But does the West want to? I am not convinced. I think the West is satisfied with virtue signaling when it comes to Africa’s prosperity. So it should not come as a surprise when African governments studiously avoid being drawn into any rivalry and maintain a broad coalition of partners. If China has built more infrastructure in Africa in two decades than the West has in centuries, China is also our friend.

Propaganda

The BBC gets rare access to facilities in Xinjiang thought to be holding more than a million Muslims! Inside China's 'thought transformation' camps [MORE] Inside the BBC's propaganda: 'The Silent, Peaceful Coup D’état in China,' by Chan Kai Yee. [MORE] 

Long Read:

When and how will mainland China reunify with Taiwan?

US-made sub with Taiwanese navy personnel. Many believe Taiwan has a competent military for its size, but it could not possibly hold out long without foreign help, should Beijing give the oder for an all-out assault. (Photo: Hudson Institute)

by Peter Man 
Disclaimer: My answer does not take any political stand between mainland China and Taiwan and does not advocate for war, peace, or status quo. Furthermore, it is entirely based on public information, reasonable logical deductions, and a bit of personal insight. The answer is not derived from any confidential information and is at best an educated guess. Many things could happen in the interim to change the outcome of this analysis. To make readers aware of the writer’s inevitable natural bias, a short background bio is provided below.  A few observations:

1. American actions in the west Pacific are not a Trump phenomenon. As early as 2009, Obama had already started this major strategic change known as Pivot to Asia. As with most American foreign policy, this has strong military undertone and may have originated from a combination of military, intelligence, and Washington think tanks stacked with China hawks. Since Trump himself is arguably a China hawk—his anti-China rhetoric of “China raped us” is not new—and he has been surrounded by China hawks such as Bannon, Bolton, Lighthizer, Navarro, and Pompeo, among others, the conflict between China and the US could only worsen, especially after the US Department of Defense and the White House in 2018 issued reports to Congress officially stating China as an adversary. Since the Democrats (probably with the exception of Dianne Feinstein) support the GOP and Trump in their attacks on China, and Biden now campaigns with the premise that Trump is too soft on China, we know that this anti-China position has much deeper roots. To assume that the US would not act on this position is to be delusional. Judging from American government’s behavior in the past several decades regarding international relations, America is the hammer and everyone else is a nail. American carriers passing through the South China Sea is a show of force for its allies, but China should expect serious challenges from America on the Taiwan issue. There is palpable pressure for China to resolve the Taiwan problem as soon as possible.
2. China’s general position regarding the rest of the world has been mostly trying to maintain peace. China needs trade to improve its production capabilities, which are the main pillars of its economy since its “opening up” under Deng Xiaoping’s leadership. This has been changing for the last ten years when China began to slowly move up the value chain. Without peace, China’s development would be hampered. The US has very different concerns and prerogatives. The US for example can create the world reserve currency (USD) from thin air while the rest of the world must earn it in order to trade. This started in 1971 when the US went off the gold standard, basically defaulting on its Bretton Woods promise to pay international transactions in gold. The Petrodollar system that replaced the gold standard and America’s control of the international currency transaction system known as SWIFT give the US overwhelming advantages in international trade as well as dominating influence in the world economy. Consider which nation of the world other than the US can go into debt by scores of trillions and create trillions at a whim without suffering some negative consequences. This reserve currency advantage of the US no doubt contributes to the country’s GDP growth and an unrestrained budgetary expansion for the military. America’s usage of USD’s reserve currency status for unilateral sanctions has caused some countries to develop alternatives. China has probably been working out the scenarios of the US completely blocking China from SWIFT and USD transactions. With guaranteed energy supply from Russia and Iran, China is well placed to counter America’s threats of decoupling. China also has a huge foreign currency reserve of 3.4 trillion dollars, as well as controlling over 80% of the world’s supply of rare minerals needed for manufacturing of high end technology products, including military hardware. 
3. From day one, US-China relationship has never been one between peers. The US may create any amount of capital in the form of international reserve currency whenever needed; China cannot. Most if not all of the international trade rules are written by the US and her allies. The US owns all of the most advanced technologies, all of the mainstream media, and controls all the trade routes. The US has the world’s strongest military, her bases and soldiers are everywhere, her fighters and bombers patrol the skies, while her fleets sail the seven seas. America also has military alliances all over the world. China’s capabilities have been steadily improving over the years, but it is never close to where America is in terms of military prowess, power projection, and media influence. In the US, there has probably always been a palpable concern in the rise of China to become a near peer competitor of America. China is probably the only country in the world with that potential. Consider that China has always been barred by America and her allies from participating in international collaboration in the research and development of advanced technologies. For example, China has had to develop its own homegrown space program, its own satellite GPS system, and its own advanced military hardware because they are basically banned from collaborating with the West in these areas. China is also barred by the US from developing and manufacturing the most advanced microchips. When a Chinese company gains predominance in a particular sector that may challenge America’s power, the US government will certainly not allow that to happen. America’s attacks on Chinese companies so far are rather one-sided affairs. China has not retaliated because retaliation at this time would be counter-productive. 
4. All is however not well in America. Vitriolic politics has polarized the people, journalism is colored yellow, inequality is becoming more extreme, a large proportion of the population is in debt, sick, homeless, hungry, desperate, and angry; gun violence is skyrocketing in the cities, young people are taking to the streets for better or worse, people are arming themselves, while the legislators continue to feed the Military Industrial Complex and the financial institutes with unlimited budgets and trillion dollar bail-outs, and the White House is destroying the international order that depends [for ill] on America for leadership. There is another election reality show in three months and people are preparing for chaos in case Trump loses. Trump cannot afford to lose because of the many lawsuits waiting for him when he steps down from the presidency. This election is an existential struggle for Trump. There may also be chaos if he wins. Maybe there will be an October surprise; maybe there will be funny business with the ballots; maybe the Supreme Court will have to decide on who’s the winner. Indeed, something is rotten in the state of Denmark. The arrival of Covid-19 is an unpredictable external event that will probably tip the apple-cart over and change the world order for good. There is actually no big secret for how to stop the spread of the virus. But America will not implement it. China is a big country with four times the population of America, and they have been very successful in stopping the spread of the virus. Americans do not want to examine what China has done. When they do, they call China’s measures draconian or even tyrannical. America will therefore continue to be sick, die in large numbers, and ruin their economy [even further]. Creating trillions of dollars to prop up a crumbling house will have consequences this time. Consider that America enjoys the power of the USD because other countries support it by trading with it. China is in fact a big supporter of the USD by trading mostly with this currency, keeping over a trillion dollars as its foreign currency reserve. The Chinese RMB and Hong Kong dollar are also pegged to the USD. This is a trade-off for peace, so that China can develop into a country that provides a middle-class lifestyle (xiao-kang) to all of its population. Now that America is attacking China with the full court press and threatening China with a complete decoupling, watch for China to give up its support of the USD. This USD is increasingly becoming useless to China, as they cannot use it to purchase valuable assets in America, and they cannot invest in valuable businesses in America. Washington is also cooking up some schemes to make China pay for Covid-19 or some such nonsense. 
5. Taiwan is a big problem for the People’s Republic of China (PRC). According to the PRC, reunification is the only option. The answer to the first part of the question of whether mainland China and Taiwan will reunify is therefore a resounding “yes.” Now we’ll have to answer how and when. China (PRC) would prefer the reunification to be peaceful. It does not want bloodshed and it does not want to destroy its own properties in the process of taking possession. There is always the danger that a military takeover would spiral out of control. Neither does China want to drag this out forever. We should expect to witness reunification between mainland China and Taiwan during Xi’s tenure. He had said so or at least hinted at it himself. In 1992, the PRC and the Republic of China (ROC) in Taiwan—at that time under Kuomintang (KMT; i.e. Nationalist Party) rule—came to a consensus on the principle of one-China. This created the path forward for peaceful reunification. Unfortunately, Lee Teng Hui (1923-2020) who advocated for independence took power in KMT, causing a schism which weakened KMT. Today, ROC in Taiwan is completely run by the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). KMT is a shadow of its "glorious" past and does not appear to have anyone with the ability to revive its political fortunes. Neither is there anyone in Taiwan with the political power, will, and courage to negotiate with the PRC for a peaceful reunification. One should not be delusional to hope that it is still a possibility. While the DPP is not declaring independence, they have revoked the 1992 consensus which effectively broke all official communications between PRC and ROC. The DPP government is removing the name China on the island and acting as if Taiwan is never going to be a part of China. Peaceful reunification is dead; long live peaceful reunification. The PRC is therefore left with only one option—reunification by military action. That is the answer for how; the only question left is when.
6. In my opinion, based on public evidence, America is unwittingly creating a strategic opportunity for mainland China-Taiwan reunification. My rationale is outlined as follows:
   1. Fallout from the West: Given that under normal circumstances, China would have to place strong consideration on the fallout from America following a reunification by military action, that consideration is now greatly reduced due to America’s full spectrum assault on China and the threat of total decoupling. At this time, China can ask itself what does it have to lose. China can thank Trump, Washington, the mainstream media, and the DPP for creating this situation. Some may say this could trigger the Third World War, but strategic thinkers such as Lee Kuan Yew (1923-2015) even ten years ago said that the US and their allies would not get involved in a shooting war with China over Taiwan, just as what happened with Crimea. This position is widely held even among the US military, their allies, and their think tanks. They may sanction China but they are already doing it now. The strategic importance of Taiwan to America is insignificant, while it is everything to China. Taiwan is 80 miles from China’s east coast but 5,000 miles from Hawaii and 6,000 miles from the American west coast. Reunification is inevitable. People may want to ignore reality but reality will not ignore them.
   2. Concerns of Hong Kong: China had always supported Hong Kong’s development and wanted Hong Kong to be the vanguard of China’s own development. The success of Hong Kong SAR self-rule and Hong Kong’s reintegration with the mainland would also be a good example for solving the Taiwan problem. Unfortunately, foreign intervention poisoned the heretofore peaceful society of Hong Kong which turned some youngsters into violent extremists. Being myself a citizen of Hong Kong with family and friends living in the city, I have first-hand knowledge of the inveterate hatred towards all things China held by some Hong Kong people. They are visible in schools, among teachers, the media, the press, and even among government officials. Many of these people also receive salaries and funding from the Hong Kong government. While some Hong Kong people are truly concerned about their society and want to express their concerns in the form of peaceful protests, others have engaged in highly racist and violent acts. There are restaurants in Hong Kong with signs saying they do not serve Mandarin speakers (hint, mainland Chinese). Others have engaged in violent secessionist activities. For these people, no other narrative exists about China other than that China is evil. My mother has been a teacher all her life, which in Hong Kong is a government job, and I hear this kind of extreme anti-China vitriol from her every day. No wonder most of her students hold similar views, and now their children will do the same. For a long time, like about twenty-three years, China had been patient and waited for the Hong Kong government to establish the National Security Law according to the Basic Law of Hong Kong SAR. Unfortunately, foreign operatives accustomed to wreaking havoc in other countries via regime change forced China’s hand. After waiting a whole year for Hong Kong to quell the street violence and calm the political waters of the SAR on its own, but seeing a downward spiral instead, China had to step in. Again, by that time, China had nothing to lose except the covert CIA and MI6 operatives. Edward Snowden called the American Embassy in Hong Kong the home-base of CIA agents. As the nations of the West wag their righteous fingers at China and cut ties with Hong Kong, China (PRC) once again arrives at the situation where their reunification with Taiwan will not create too much concern of fallout from the West vis-a-vis Hong Kong SAR. 
   3. China vs. Taiwan military: Is the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) strong enough to cause the fall of the ROC government? I remember watching a video from perhaps ten years ago of Taiwanese author and politician Li Ao (1935-2018) pressing a minister of defense of Taiwan on how long ROC’s army could withstand a PLA attack. The answer was two weeks. The idea was that a knight in shining armor would come to the island’s rescue during the two weeks of unyielding defense. China’s PLA is ostensibly much stronger today with two operational carrier groups and hyper-sonic missiles. Although some analysts say that China should wait for at least three carrier groups to be operational, and some say that China should secure its trade routes across Central Asia, Pakistan, and Iran, which may take another ten years, before taking military action, other developments are pushing the schedule forward. Purely in terms of military abilities, there is no question that China is ready today. In a civil war such as this, one should not think only in terms of carriers and landing crafts or missiles and bombers. I do not want to speculate on tactical details, as I believe there are career soldiers and qualified tacticians who may have already laid out the plans. Why should China move its reunification schedule forward? If we remember the American full court press, China’s red line on Taiwan is in the process of being crossed. US Congress just approved sales of military equipment to Taiwan. China hawks are talking everyday about decoupling from China and recognizing Taiwan. They are forcing Taiwan’s top electronics and microchip manufacturers to establish production facilities in America and to stop supplying Chinese firms. The longer China waits, the higher likelihood that there will be more complications in the event of a reunification by military action. China’s hand is forced, and again, it has nothing to lose and it should act fast. 
   4. The optimum period: There have been of late quite a few articles surfacing on Asian news websites and videos posted on YouTube talking about the Taiwan reunification issue. Most of them are however sensationalist and talk about military action in August or September without strong reasons. Other pundits, especially from Taiwan, refuse to name a date because of the sensitivity of the subject. In my opinion, if China decides to make a move on Taiwan reunification, the most likely timing should be from the day of the presidential election on Nov. 6 until the end of the year. The issue should be settled swiftly, precisely, and with minimal casualties. Whether Trump wins or loses the election, America is expected to undergo some turmoil. This will be in addition to the Covid-19, the street protests, the economy, the gun violence, etc. And we’re only assuming it’s going to be all quiet on the other fronts. Look for China’s friends and allies to light up some low intensity fires at other parts of the world as diversion. There is major upside for China if they succeed in their reunification with Taiwan. Aside from Taiwan’s strategic location, the world’s largest electronics manufacturer Foxconn and the world’s most advanced microchip manufacturer TSMC will become Chinese companies. Aside from the fact that China already makes everything else for the world, it may be very difficult for countries in the West to sanction China or wage trade/technology wars against China. China’s successful military action will also demonstrate to the world that the country will not be trifled with. This strategic message may make life a lot easier for Chinese companies doing business in other parts of the world. It may also be easier for China to maintain peace and develop its Belt and Road Initiative from a position of strength. Everything of course depends on successful execution.

Conclusion: This is of course only the speculation of an individual, made with the intention of provoking thought. Regardless of whether the analysis makes sense or not, it will certainly make no impact, as the world is a complicated place, and no one can predict the future. Even if this analysis turns out to be prophetic, it will still suffer the Cassandra syndrome because no one wil believe it.

Author Bio: The writer was born in Hong Kong during British colonial rule. His parents were both staunch anti-communists. His father was an ex-communist who had written popular historical novels that excoriated the Chinese Communist Party. The writer was baptized at birth and had a mostly Westernized upbringing being educated by the Catholic Brothers at a boys-only English school (La Salle). The writer later went to university in Canada and became a Canadian citizen. Now fully half of his extended family in North America is non-ethnic Chinese or of mixed ethnicity. Despite his Westernized and Catholic upbringing, the writer has always been interested in Chinese history and Chinese literature. He can speak Cantonese and Mandarin, and can read and write Chinese both in the traditional and simplified forms. In his youth, the writer was a pioneer of Chinese language television in Canada, establishing the first national Chinese language television station in the country. His position as a licensed broadcaster required neutrality and balance, which was also necessary for bringing harmony to the Canadian Chinese communities served by the licensee’s programming service. The writer later lived in China for nearly two decades working in the broadcasting and digital media technologies industry, personally experiencing business and social life in China, and directly witnessing China’s meteoric rise. He has written a sci-fi adventure novel “The Unconquered” which spans across the entire history of China. His other Quora articles include “What is China?” and “Who is Sidney Rittenberg?” Visit author website at https://stone-man.weebly.com/ or contact him at Stoneman.1eye@gmail.com (Subject: Quora reader)

Comment by TP Wilkinson: Since 1949, the strongest "lobby" in the US has actually been the China (Taiwan) Lobby, followed by the Israel lobby. What unites these two is their core constituencies; the drug, weapons and money-laundering sectors. Both Zionist-Palestine and the "treaty ports" (later Taiwan too) are the central hubs for the West's off-shore criminal activities. One could say that the Western economy runs from London through Tel Aviv to Taiwan (previously Shanghai) to San Francisco, then to NYC and back to London. The US interest in Taiwan is two-fold: a) as a base to threaten China and b) as its East Asian contraband hub. Ideally the US would like to suborn the PRC and return Shanghai to complete Western control from which to plunder China. Australia as a "secondary sex characteristic" of the Anglo-American Empire is owned by people who want to enjoy the by-products of this criminality.