DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
"Every U.S. embassy is also a U.S. regime change base. Lukashenko would have been better off without one..."
Photo distributed by Western media, purporting to show the popularity of anti-Lukashenko protests. Part of the Western color revolt catechism, it seems.
The color revolution attempt in Belarus, which we predicted in June, evolved over the last week. But today's events tell us that it will soon be over.
While President Alexander Lukashenko claimed to have won 80% of the votes during last Sunday's election, the 'western' candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya claimed that she had won. (While the 80% is certainly too high it is most likely that Lukashenko was the real winner.) Protests and riots ensued. On Tuesday Tikhanovskaya was told in no uncertain terms to leave the country. She ended up in Lithuania.
Much publicized image of protester embracing riot police officer. The image can be read as both anti and pro-West.
During the week several nightly riots were shut down by the police. Several protesters were 'roughed up'. Videos of those incidents were used by the usual 'western journalists' as example of unusual police brutality. It is as if none of those empire serving scribes ever watched how 'western' police react when bottles and fireworks are thrown at them.
In an interview with Strana.ua two employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus explained their view of the situation (edited machine translation):
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Anyway, the police were told to tone it down. They did not like that (edited machine translation):
"Nobody wants to be torn up like the Berkut in Ukraine. We remember its fate. We have an order, we carry it out. All our people understand that if these rich kids and their masters come to power, we will hang from poles. We are accused of beating people. We did not beat people, but carried out the order, the commanders told [us] in advance - to act harshly. We worked."
Berkut was the Ukrainian police force that was falsely accused of having fired at demonstrators during the 2014 Maidan coup and was afterwards dismantled.
Looks like tens of thousands at the Central Elections Committee Building. Protesters chanting “Brothers!” to riot police, trying to avoid confrontation. pic.twitter.com/2fXFzuNBso
— Mary Ilyushina (@maryilyushina) August 14, 2020
There don't seem to be many rich city kids in Minsk. Throughout the week the protests groups in Belarus were rather small. The 'western' media have pushed high number counts and talked of countrywide protest when twenty women stood on a sidewalk in Minsk. Photos can tell the real story in such situations. Some observers got very excited when some 200 staff of the MTZ Minsk Tractor Works staged a short walkout. But MTZ Minsk Tractor Works has 17,000 employees.
The photo below was taken and published around noon local time today. This was to be today's central protest in Minsk. On a Saturday morning, in excellent weather, only some 2,000 people came out. Minsk has some 2 million inhabitants. The 'rich city kids' came. And few beyond that.
Nexta is by the way the central communication channel used in this color revolution attempt. On Tuesday another Stana.ua report gave some details about its operation (edited machine translation):
The main supplier of news from the streets of Minsk and other cities of Belarus is the Nexta Live channel. Today he has crossed the bar of a million subscribers, although he was widely cited only a day ago, when clashes began on the streets of the capital.
It has a sister channel Nexta - with half a million subscribers. Both sites mainly forward messages to each other. But the basic one is the channel with the Live prefix in the name. The most operative videos from the scene appear there.
And most importantly, it is there that plans for a protest are published - at what time and where to gather for a rally, when to start a strike, and so on.
Round the clock, and especially during nighttime opposition rallies, this public is updated at a rate of several messages per minute. Most of which are exclusive videos and photos directly from the hotbeds of protests.
In addition to the video, the channel is constantly coordinating the actions of the protesters. They are told about the movements of the riot police, and sympathizers are told how to shelter the protesters.
Another function of the channel is constant calls to go outside and encouraging attacks on police officers.
On the very first day of the protests, Nexta was marked with a joyful message "People are beating the riot police", as if law enforcement officers are not people.
Nexta is led by anti-Lukashenko pro-Western 'activists' in Poland. The editor in chief is one Roman Protasevich. He was perviously a journalist for the Polish-Lithuanian-funded Euroradio, as well as for the CIA's Radio Liberty. Nexta was founded by Stepan Putila who earlier worked for the Polish-Belarusian channel Belsat which is based in Warsaw and is funded by the Polish Foreign Ministry. Both currently live in Warsaw.
Another typical "color revolution" photo of anti-Lukashenko demonstrators distributed by CNN.
As these media produce fresh videos 24/7 and do many online posts there must be a sizeable staff behind Nexta, in Poland as well as on the ground in Belarus. This is certainly not a cheap operation and it certainly has nation-state / dee state backing. Obama's deputy national security advisor left little doubt about who is behind this game.
Ben Rhodes @brhodes - 4:11 UTC · 11 Aug 2020
Americans have to recognize that the fight against Lukashenko in Belarus is our fight. He is part of the same trend that has ravaged the US, Russia, Turkey, Hungary, Hong Kong, Brazil, Israel, Egypt, the Philippines, Zimbabwe, and others. We need sustained solidarity in response.
Neither the EU nor the U.S. have acknowledged Lukashenko's election win. Both clearly want him out. There are talks about sanctions.
Even Russian media have spoken against him:
Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR - 6:47 UTC · Aug 15, 2020
Judging by Russian media this morning, it's not looking good for Alexander Lukashenko:
• “The question's no longer will he go, but when”
• “Lukashenko’s nightmare becomes reality”
• “Hard to see how he can turn events in his favour”
This is not going well for Lukashenko. He could shut down the protests but he knows that the game would then escalate and that it would not end well. He clearly needs help. While President Putin of Russia and President Xi of China had both congratulated him, neither has much interest in keeping him in office.
What could he offer?
The Ukrainian operation to fake a 'Russian coup' threat in Belarus by baiting 32 former Wagner fighters into the country has failed. But the men were still imprisoned in Belarus.
Yesterday they were flown home on a special Belarus air force flight. This cleared the atmosphere for talks with Russia.
Early this morning Lukashenko took the next step. He warned publicly that a danger to Belarus would also be a danger to Russia:
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Saturday he wanted to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning street protests were not just a threat to Belarus.
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"There is a need to contact Putin so that I can talk to him now, because it is not a threat to just Belarus anymore," he said, according to state news agency Belta. "Defending Belarus today is no less than defending our entire space, the union state, and an example to others ... Those who roam the streets, most of them do not understand this."
The code word in the public message was "the union state". When I read those words I smiled. Lukashenko hates the Union State idea. Today he emphasized it. This was a deal offer.
In 1999 Russia and Belarus signed a treaty to form a Union State out of Russia and Belarus. It would include free movement, a common defense and economic integration as well as a union parliament. But since then Lukashenko has dragged his feet on the issue. At the end of last year Putin pressed him again to finally execute the deal. When Lukashenko rejected that Putin shut off the country's economic lifeline from Russia. Belarus did no longer receive subsidized Russian oil that it could refine and sell at market prices to the 'west'. Lukashenko then tried to make nice with the 'west'. He bought U.S. fracking oil. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo came to Minsk. In March the U.S. reopened its embassy in Belarus.
But now the 'west' Lukashenko had tried to coddle with is trying to get him killed. Every U.S. embassy is also a U.S. regime change base. He would have been better off without one.
As he was the target of an ongoing U.S. led regime change operation, and with economic pressure in direct sight, Lukashenko obviously needed help. Today he finally wised up and capitulated to Moscow on the Union State issue.
It did not take long for Putin to respond. Some 6 hours after the above Reuters report the Kremlin published a note about a Telephone conversation with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko (emphasis added):
Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation with President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko at the initiative of the Belarusian side.
Alexander Lukashenko informed Vladimir Putin about the developments following the presidential election in Belarus. Both sides expressed confidence that all existing problems will be settled soon. The main thing is to prevent destructive forces from using these problems to cause damage to mutually beneficial relations of the two countries within the Union State.
In connection with the return to Russia of 32 people who were previously detained in Belarus, a positive assessment was given to close cooperation of the relevant agencies in this regard.
They also agreed on further regular contacts at various levels, and reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening allied relations, which fully meets the core interests of the fraternal nations of Russia and Belarus.
It seems to me that Putin accepted the deal. Lukashenko, and his police, will not hang from a pole. Russia will take care of the problem and the Union State will finally be established.
That does not mean that the color revolution attempt is over. The U.S. and its lackey Poland will not just pack up and leave. But with the full backing from Russia assured, Lukashenko can take the necessary steps to end the riots.
This announcement tells NATO that its over:
Steve Rosenberg @BBCSteveR - 17:23 UTC · 15 Aug 2020
Lukashenko reveals details of phone call with Putin: “We have an agreement with Russia on collective security...and we agreed: if we request it, comprehensive assistance to ensure security in #Belarus will be provided to us.”
That is the backing that was needed. All U.S. and NATO hope to somehow get Belarus under their control has just ended.
Lukashenko should now start to shut down the 34 projects and organizations the U.S. National Endowment for Democracy is financing in his country. The people involved in these, likely many of the rioting 'rich kids', should be kept under observation.
For now the main issue is to stabilize the local situation. Russia as a superpower surely has ways and means to help with that. Belarus is now under its full protection.
A year from now, when the Union State is finally established, Lukashenko can resign over health issues and retire. New competitive elections can then be held.
Posted by b on August 15, 2020 at 18:09 UTC | Permalink
Thank you for the information.
As an American, I find this meddling heinous.
To some in my country, it is as in the phrase, "All is fair in love and war."
When Trump was sworn in, he promised not to aggressively pursue undermining other nation's soverignty. Now we see that the little push from our side has provoked a neccessary response for Belarus to hitch their wagon to Ru.
Couldn't we see that? Was that the purpose all along? Is it theater and POTUS secretly wants a hardline between NATO and its rivals?
IMO, POTUS seems to give the rope so that they can hang themselves. My guess is that Trump knows or cares little about Belarus, only that it's in Russia's influence-sphere.
But, we still have to look the part to the Poles who are clearly pro-west and are signalling us by waving our own greenbacks to beckon us closer.
Posted by: NemesisCalling | Aug 15 2020 18:36 utc | 2
For once, you miss a part of the story.
Althought it doesn't put all its eggs in the same basket, Russia also supports the opposition and MPs from Putin's party have lashed out at Lukashenko. The husband of one of the three opposition women is refugee in Russia. And Lukashenko almost daily criticise Moscow.
This time, the situation seems more complicated than a simple Soros 'color revolution'...
Posted by: Observatus | Aug 15 2020 18:59 utc | 3
Thanks b... this Lukashenko guy must have some smarts to hold onto power for as long as he has, but playing this same game erdogan has played, playing russia off the west is a real jackass move as i see it.. you can see the attraction and danger in it, but you end up walking a very thin line and pissing off everyone.. smoothie wrote quite a good overview on this from russia's pov a day or two ago worth checking out White Elephant-size 800-pound Gorilla In The Room. i see he has written another article on it today that i have yet to read..
seems like the plan is as you describe in your last sentence... the west has no shortage of gofers to help it along - poland and etc, but i am not sure that is enough for the people of belarus to be convinced of the attractiveness of what ukraine has become... i kinda doubt it, but who knows...
interesting overview on nexta.... such a trendy name, lol... sounds like a name straight off madison avenue..
@ NemesisCalling | Aug 15 2020 18:36 utc | 2.. it seems like it has been going on foreveer nemesis... you really think trump is going to change any of this?? remember - grab the oil, or whatever and do what kleptomaniacs do.. that is trumps motto, although he calls it maga, lol...
Posted by: james | Aug 15 2020 19:00 utc | 4
The idea an ungrateful Lukashenko was dumping on the hero Putin sort of assumes that Putin wasn't squeezing Belarus because Putin's Russia is weakening economically and politically. Like Trump squeezing South Korea for more money, Putin wants more from Belarus because he needs it. And in this context, it means he wants Lukashenko to Yeltsinize Belarus.
The opposition to Lukashenko is due to the decline of Belarus in the world crisis. Selling the country to oligarchs, Russian or EU/US, would be even worse, but some people only learn the hard way, when tragically it's too late. The chances Tikhanovsky actually won a majority is nearly impossible in my view. Any claims of an unfair election, as in stolen or fraudulent, are purely hypocritical. Nonetheless the election was not free, given the removal of the real opposition leaders and the repression of the news media. But putting in another government is in no sense whatsoever a cure for elections unfree in this sense.
Posted by: steven t johnson | Aug 15 2020 19:20 utc | 5
On the surface at least, Lukashenko has been surprisingly obtuse in all this. I mean that he thought he could cozy up to Uncle Sugar and not get regine-changed like this. Pompeo & Trump jumped right on it, they're looking hard for a win now, Pompeo does not look happy.
Putin kind of put Lukashenko in a bind when he started pushing him on the union state (which makes about as much sense as Modi does when he uses the same term for Kashmir). But I can see Putin's point too, freedom and responsibility go together.
The Russian commenters I've read on this seem negative on Lukashenko and Belarus too. Like Saker when going on about Ukrainians. Shamir OTOH seemed to think highly of both.
In fact it seems odd enough I want to see what happens next, now that the marriage has been saved. I wonder if Putin is up to something.
Posted by: Bemildred | Aug 15 2020 19:20 utc | 6
Another important point that was noted during the telephone conversation amongst the two presidents of Russia and Belarus is this little detail, reported by TASS...
The President of Belarus also noted the buildup of the military component in neighboring Poland and Lithuania, where NATO military exercises are held.
https://tass.com/world/1190061
Thus we could expcet a similar or equivalent military buildup in the Russian border or into Belarus proper, as the CSTO agreements allow...Also, nobody would swallow the NATO drills were not coordinated with the "color revolution" intend....It seesm that they were expecting some armed support would be needed...after flowers and hugs resulted clearly ineffective
Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 15 2020 19:36 utc | 7
steven t.johnson The idea an ungrateful Lukashenko was dumping on the hero Putin sort of assumes that Putin wasn't squeezing Belarus because Putin's Russia is weakening economically and politically. Like Trump squeezing South Korea for more money, Putin wants more from Belarus because he needs it. And in this context, it means he wants Lukashenko to Yeltsinize Belarus.
Russia has recently increased its 'bad days' national saving fund to $600 billion. To suggest that it need Belarus for economic resaons in ludicrous.
I never understood why Belarus was separated from Russia in the breakup of 1991. Belarus was always part of Russia, but had been separated in the Soviet dictation of autonomous republics. If now there's a prospect of rejoining, it's hardly surprising, never mind the colour revolution people.
Posted by: Laguerre | Aug 15 2020 19:48 utc | 9
@Posted by: Laguerre | Aug 15 2020 19:48 utc | 9
I read this past day that Belarus, after the fall of the USSR, just declared its sovereignty, but not its independence, in the waiting that some other former Soviet republics would do the same and after the initial turmoil, all would rejoin into an economic/military union similar to the current EU/NATO...
But then the republics started declaring their independence, and it seems that Belarus remained only sovereing, and this must be the legal basis ( no idea indeed...have not studied the issue...) for the still possibility of the Union State...
By declaring its sovereignty, Belarus clearly wanted to avoid the plundering by Yeltsyn´s Russian oligarchs, which was a good job Lukashenko made for the current Belarusian Republic, as recognized by those security officials in those statements linked by "b"...a condition Putin must take into account...since it is fair...
Posted by: H.Schmatz | Aug 15 2020 20:14 utc | 10
H.Schmatz | Aug 15 2020 19:36 utc | 7
Putin and his strategists must certainly have considered a "colour revolution" being forced on Belarus, as well as other countries in Russia's sphere of interest. It is possible that Putin has waited to see if Lukashenko could sort it out by himself, and is only now taking action knowing that Lukashenko would probably ressucitate the "Union" concept..
Note that Lukashenko HAS observed what happened in Ukraine and so far his reaction, and that of his police force has been quite moderate. This in spite of a baying horde of MSM in the EU and US. The 6'000 arrested have nearly all been released (but did he keep some of the "key" agitators?)
The build-up and a definite change in the make-up of NATO/US foces on the Russian borders has recently forced Putin to give several serious warnings about "crossing lines", pre-emptive fat fingers or other types of "accidents by design".
What he will do is not yet known but several possibilities are open. Some military warnings (sudden massive "manoeuvres"), cutting the finance to protestors and NGO's? Ask them to declare their sources of funding - eg for the 32 "projects by Soros as b remarked, or even expel them.
Or - nothing. ?huh? Don't forget Covid-19. Theoretically all those demonstrators are "at risk". Not one wears a mask. If they DON'T get sick - then why are we being forced into lockdowns and masks? just saying. The regular number of new cases quoted for Russia is slightly more than 5'000 a day.
It is not too easy to work out what the Russians will do, but I would not be surprised if their reaction is already taking place.
Posted by: Stonebird | Aug 15 2020 20:15 utc | 11
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com. 
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" In 1999 Russia and Belarus signed a treaty to form a Union State out of Russia and Belarus. It would include free movement, a common defense and economic integration as well as a union parliament. "
However, does this " union state " also include the removal of all foreighn embassies from Belarus ? Does this " union state " allow Belarus to have an independent foreighn policy, For examample inviting foreighn troops on its soil ? Will the Belarusian army autmotaically come to the defense of Russia ? Will the militaries be totally integrated ? There are many questions.
Posted by: Fog of War | Aug 15 2020 18:19 utc | 1