PUTIN’S QUIET & INGENIOUS BELARUS SPECIAL OPERATION

still can’t get used to the fact that when Russia faces big threats, and Putin is silent, it means that there is another special operation, which we will only learn about later, when the information noise subsides. No wonder Trump recently called Putin a genius chess player on the geopolitical board.

Let’s remember the chronology of important events in Belarus.

• 1) Lukashenko tries to slow down the development of Union relations with Russia and tries to sit on two chairs, flirting with the west and squeezing out new subsidies from each side.
• 2) In his usual manner, he tries to clean up the political field before the election. At the same time, Moscow sees the upcoming revolution after the election and the activity of western intelligence services. Everything is primitive and according to the methodology of Gene Sharp.
• 3) Belarus is facing the largest protests in the country’s history and Lukashenko’s subordinates are increasingly switching to the opposition.
• 4) The government starts to lose control over the main means of governance. Even journalists who had served the government for many years left it.
• 5) The US and EU impose sanctions against Belarus and government representatives.

In just three days, the opposition managed to shake people up to such an extent that in total about 10% of the population came out to protest, dozens of major industries stopped their work, the western “chair”, which was already warmed up by Lukashenko, was knocked out from under him by the western “partners” themselves by imposing sanctions and not recognising the election results.

The opposition also put pressure on the banking sector, calling on people to withdraw money from deposits and exchange it for dollars, which caused the Belarusian ruble to fall and the cost of borrowing rose to a huge 11%, while bonds were no longer bought.

Starting from this moment, the authorities do not know what to do and simply try to put out the fire and justify themselves, and do not know how to stop the flow of provocations. Lukashenko is confused and doesn’t know what to say and his subordinates see his weakness and start supporting the opposition more.

Russia, meanwhile, says that there are signs of external interference, but this is an internal matter for Belarus and we will not interfere.

Start of the special operation

Just a few days later, Lukashenko calls Putin, and after the call, he said that he was surprised at how well Russia understands the situation. It is not known what they were talking about, but an hour and a half later, the first two planes took off in the direction of Minsk. These planes are flown by top level officials.

Then all week new planes – both FSB and ordinary ones – arrive in Belarus.

On Friday, active work begins to suppress protest moods. They turn on the Internet, release detainees, new journalists appear on TV (mostly from Russia, as it turned out later), gather thousands of rallies in support of Lukashenko, even with voluntarily-forcibly driven people, Lukashenko tours striking factories.

(Previously forbidden flags appeared)

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Work is beginning on all fronts to oust the opposition from the information space and discredit their leaders. Rather, the government allows them to discredit themselves by seeking to publish a program of changes that are identical to the Ukrainian reforms:

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And so on. You understand the meaning of the program. Then it begins to be analysed in the media and now the opposition begins to justify itself and hastily removes the program from their websites and says that all of this is a lie and they did not say this.

The protests are beginning to deflate and the opposition Telegram channels say that this is not true and people are just tired or the weather is bad and the government is about to give up.

The most obvious fact of Russian intervention was the advice to reward the military for excellent service, thereby making it clear that they would not abandon the military, because the military was afraid of reprisals and many thought that they would be fed to the people to calm the protests. Many therefore started to side with the protesters, because the opposition published their information and the information of their families and they were concerned for their safety.

There were also stickers on Telegram in favour of Lukashenko.

As a result

Putin waited until Lukashenko lost the support of the west and he would have no other options but the development of the Union State. And now Lukashenko, instead of making excuses, again feels very confident, but Russian politicians have taken a firm grip on him, because now is the best time to conclude agreements while his position is weak, and the Belarusian President himself now declares that Union relations are good and proper. Along with Belarusian flags, Russian flags are now being displayed, and positive news about Russia is being played on TV again, not the other way around (this is important for preparing people for rapprochement). The protests have almost run out of steam in just a few days of Russian intelligence work.