Bolivia Has Won. Will Trump Win Too?
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
Bolivia's de facto president Ines Añez offering congratulations for the "peaceful" comportment of the people during the elections.
It seems that Elon Musk has lost the election in Bolivia:
Even Morales’ nemesis, the rightwing interim president, Jeanine Áñez, conceded the left had come out on top. “We do not yet have the official count, but the data we do have shows that Mr Arce [has] … won the election. I congratulate the winners and ask them to govern thinking of Bolivia and of democracy,” Áñez tweeted.
Congratulation to the Movimiento al Socialismo, its candidate Luis Arce and the people of Bolivia who withstood the onslaught of intimidation and violence from the right and the military. Even as democracy is now restored in Bolivia it would be wrong to let the right and the military get away with what they have done. They will otherwise try to do it again. The coup leaders should be hauled in front of a court. Bolivia should ask Venezuela for advice on how to coup proof its military forces.
Now onto the other election that is on peoples' mind.
While most polls show that Joe Biden will win the U.S. election my gut is telling me that Donald Trump will have a second term. The election might well become a repeat of 2016 when Trump won even though most media had predicted that Hillary Clinton would win.
There are two main reasons for this. The local ground game and enthusiasm for the candidates.
The Democrats have neglected the ground game. Their get out the vote efforts seem minimal. Meanwhile the Republicans are going from door to door and have registered large number of voters:
Republican registration has ticked up in key states at the same time Democratic field operations were in hibernation. Democratic turnout is surging in the early vote. But it’s unclear whether it will be enough to overcome an expected rush of ballots that Republicans, leerier of mail voting, will cast in person on Election Day.
There is uncertainty about the accuracy of polling in certain swing states, the efficacy of GOP voter suppression efforts and even the number of mail-in ballots that for one reason or another will be disqualified.
Biden has collected more donations than Trump but money can only buy him advertisements. Trump gets media attention for free due to the constant outrage the Democrats project on him.
The second reason for predicting a Trump win is the enthusiasm of his supporters. Video shows thousands of people standing at the streets to wave at a passing Trump convoy in California. Meanwhile Biden goes out to read from giant teleprompters to empty parking lots.
While Trump will be campaigning all week Biden decided to stay at home to prepare for the next debate. How can he defend himself against the serious corruption accusations that his son's emails seem to support?
The Democrats under Biden have shunned the progressive policies who brought the most enthusiasm to the primaries. Everyone presumes that the center-right Biden is just a stand in who will be removed soon to be replaced by the center-right Kamala Harris. Harris has been Hillary Clinton's choice since at least mid 2017. During the primaries she never polled higher than 2%. Politically she is not an attractive candidate.
The other people behind the Biden/Harris campaigns are just the same warmongers who wreaked havoc all over the world during the Obama administration.
Max Abrahms @MaxAbrahms - 22:14 UTC · Oct 18, 2020
I’m expecting America to get needlessly involved in more conflicts in the name of democracy, freedom, credibility, resolve & leadership. Just listen to folks like Michèle Flournoy, Mayor Pete, Susan Rice. Non-intervention has been branded as a Putin gift. We live in stupid times.
Patrick Porter @PatPorter76 · 5h
I'm skeptical of whether a Biden presidency will significantly draw down US military presence in ME. As well as the general forces that favour inertia, there will always be more pressing things for a new Democrat president to do.
Trump has botched the response to the pandemic. But would a Democratic president have done better against the resistance of many states against harsher control measures? The reasons the U.S. was hit so hard are in my view ingrained in its society. A different president would have prepared somewhat better but the outcome would likely not have been much different.
On most domestic issues Trump is only slightly to the right of a Biden/Harris administration. His foreign policy is less warmongering but more chaotic than a Democratic administration would likely be. That makes him in total more preferable to me.
That does not mean that I would vote for Trump. If I had a vote in the upcoming election it would likely go to where it does the least harm - to some third party candidate who argues for more peaceful and more socialist policies.
COMMENTS SAMPLER
Luis Arce, MAS candidate and winner in the latest Bolivian election.
thanks b... i am happy at the outcome of the voting in bolivia and agree they need to prevent the ongoing crap the usa throws at them by taking a number of actions here to alter this happening again..
Hopefully the MAS have learnt the lesson and the coup mongers will be properly dealt with, and the military and the police have the US lackies removed.
I have to agree with respect to the US election, the deja vu feeling is getting more intense. The one positive with Trump is that as a Canadian there may not be any new wars for our US poodle politicians to dutifully follow the US into. In addition, Trump is quite a good wrecking ball for US hegemony - another positive. Other than that, very little real difference in policies with Biden - the Democrats have become the consigliere to the Don.
Posted by: Roger | Oct 19 2020 16:18 utc | 2
No matter who was the President, the Covid-19 response was destined to fail for 2 reasons MSM refuses to talk about:
1. The Public Health infrastructure is in shambles because it does not lend itself to monetized regulatory capture as most other Executive Branch functions have been.
2. The American Diet is controlled by food products that are more Pharma/Chemical than Agriculture. It makes the American populace one of the most unhealthy on the Planet.
Posted by: Enrico Malatesta | Oct 19 2020 16:22 utc | 3
@b "If I had a vote in the upcoming election it would likely go to where it does the least harm - to some third party candidate who argues for more peaceful and more socialist policies."
That's what I would do also, if the third party candidate had even an outside chance of winning. Sadly, that is not how the U.S. presidential electoral system works. The electoral college rules that were written into the Constitution made it inevitable that only two parties would vie for power. If you think I am wrong, consider the fact that the last viable American third party was the Republican Party which formed in the mid-nineteenth century and sent the Whig Party into the dustbin of history, leaving, again, only two major parties. Third parties have popped up from time to time, but they were all short-lived.
The inescapable logic of this system is that votes for third party presidential candidates might as well not be cast. They may make the voters feel better about themselves doing "the least harm," but they also do the least good, as they have zero impact on the outcome.
Posted by: Rob | Oct 19 2020 16:33 utc | 4
If you didn't vote then stop your whining! That goes for the whole planet.
Either Russia is the enemy or socialism is the enemy. Its either commie Putin or the commie DLC that is not MAGA ing enough.
Dont waste your time voting.
Posted by: Jason | Oct 19 2020 16:33 utc | 5
or the TL/DR version. Trump may win again for the exact same reasons as last time and with team D committing the exact same unforced errors from four years ago.
Posted by: thepanzer | Oct 19 2020 16:34 utc | 6
Re: the horse race.
The 2016 polls did predict the popular vote, the problem was the electoral vote. This time Biden seems able to win the electoral vote.
As for the crowds at rallies, Biden voters don't go to rallies because they don't want to catch covid, while Trump voters believe covid is a hoax.
It's true that there is zero enthusiasm for Biden and his policies. But this election will be a straight up referendum on how Trump has handled the epidemic. That doesn't mean Joe will handle it any better.
Posted by: Dan Lynch | Oct 19 2020 16:41 utc | 7
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
as for the usa - i don't believe it matters who wins... the usa is on a slippery downhill slope... it must be especially frustrating for ordinary people in the states who feel that no matter how they vote, it matters not... chaos is on tap from nov 3rd right into inauguration day jan 20th as i see it... it ain't gonna be pretty...
Posted by: james | Oct 19 2020 16:13 utc | 1