Brexit Promoters Lament Predictable Brexit Results
DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama
It is only one month until the United Kingdom of Britain leaves the European Union. There is still no deal about the future relations between the two entities and the time is running out. But even if a deal about the economic issues is finalized and signed there will still be many changes and inconveniences.
One argument with which the British government promoted Brexit was the "end of free movement". Most people who voted for Brexit probably thought that this would mean the closing of a one-way street that only affects migrants to Britain from lower tier countries. Now they are waking up to the fact that Brexit is closing down a two way road.
- Travel rules will change after end of the post-Brexit 'standstill' transition period
- After January 1 UK tourists visiting EU countries will be restricted to 90 day stays
- The rules have prompted a backlash from Britons who own holiday home in EU
These are not 'new' EU rules. Starting January 1 Britons will be allowed on vacation in the EU for a maximum of 90 days in every six month period. These are the long existing rules for non-EU citizens if their country has no agreement for bilateral free movement with the EU.
The Daily Mail, which now laments the issue, campaigned for years for the UK to become one of those countries. It is now outraged about the consequences.
There will be more such 'surprises' which Brexit promoters will lament about even when these were utterly predictable.
Now, as Brexit becomes reality, people are finally waking up to the myriad of problems it will create for UK car maker, farmers, logistics and everyone:
On Jan. 1, the free movement of goods across the English Channel is due to end for the first time in half a century. The change has sparked fears of severe bottlenecks at British ports and highways, where customs officers will inspect trucks amid an acute lack of staff that could rattle supply chains.
Some 10,000 trucks cross the channel on ferries each day, moving about half of all goods between the U.K. and the continent while dozens of daily sailings move freight mainly between Dover on the British side and the French ports of Calais and Dunkirk.
“The problem is that you have to stop things,” said Richard Ballantyne, chief executive of the British Ports Association, a trade body. “Both the driver and the cargo will require documentation and if you queue up, you would immediately face congestion and delays.”
Large parts of the businesses that define London as a global financial center are moving to the EU:
The London Stock Exchange's pan-European share trading platform, Turquoise, opened for trading on Monday, a spokeswoman for the exchange said, joining two rival operators.
The Amsterdam-based hub was set up to avoid disruption to the LSE's EU customers, who face having to trade euro-denominated shares inside the bloc from January because Britain's full access to the EU ends on Dec. 31.
Two other London-based share trading platforms, Cboe and Aquis Exchange, have opened so-called Brexit hubs in the EU to trade shares denominated in euros.
Goldman Sachs is also opening a platform in time for January.
...
While opening alternative trading platforms in the EU won't lead to many jobs leaving London, other trading-related activities, such as clearing and settlement, are also likely to move over time.Many international banks in London have opened Brexit hubs in the EU and are under pressure from regulators to undertake activities such as stock, bond and derivatives transactions for EU clients from inside the bloc rather than in London.
Those are quite a number of high paying jobs and a lot of tax revenues that Britain will be missing:
[Consultancy] EY said in a report last month that the 7,500 roles and 1.2 trillion pounds ($1.6 trillion) in assets that have moved already may just be the beginning. It expects further shifts in personnel and assets once the U.K.’s transition period officially ends.
That bodes ill for the U.K., where finance employs more than one million people, makes up about 7% of the economy and accounts for more than a 10th of all tax revenue. Despite that, the industry has garnered little of the attention bestowed on fishing, which makes up just 0.1% of the U.K. economy, in the protracted Brexit negotiations.
The level of access between the markets of Britain and the EU is still not defined. The negotiations are still ongoing but hang on fishing rights, a level playing field to prevent unfair competition and the governance of the deal.
While the EU wants a deal no one is sure if Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson really wants to achieve one. He may be just play for time to achieve a hard Brexit without any EU agreement.
But even if a last minute deal gets done there will still be many changes and disruptions. Without a deal those will be tremendous and may damage Britain beyond repair.
Posted by b on November 30, 2020 at 16:19 UTC | Permalink
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Comments Sampler
I wouldn't worry, " the city of London " will not lose its status as the financial hub of the world. Lord Rothschild will make sure of that. As for the other issues, cry me a river Britons a nation's borders have meaning after all, your Holiday homes will have to accommodate. While some finance jobs may be leaving the UK, for the elite of finance, keeping the City of London corp from the prying eyes of those in Brussels was always the intention and that requirement is being met.....so everything else is just collateral damage. And having all those derivatives scattered hither and yawn is part of the plan I suspect. If those derivatives hold Superior Position over other financial assets in other countries like has been done in the US then putting all of the assets of the West at risk of these derivatives will be interesting to watch unfold when the music stops....and it will, quite soon I believe....just need to get all those ducks in a row.... Note that nobody in Britain seems to complain about the re-introduction of tariffs according to the level permitted by the WTO should negotiations fail. All the important issues are things that fall in the category of Non-tariff barriers of trade (travel restrictions, bureaucracy etc.). Posted by: m | Nov 30 2020 16:54 utc | 4 Old habits die hard? Posted by: Hoarsewhisperer | Nov 30 2020 16:54 utc | 5 The 'myriad of problems' that Brexit will cause is a small price to pay for Briton to escape the clutches of the Neo-fascists that are running the EU. It is very small in comparison to the price that our grand-fathers, great grand-fathers and great-great grandfathers paid to escape the clutches of the ancestors of these same Neo-fascists less than a century ago. Back-tracking on Brexit now would turn Briton into the equivalent of Vichy France, forever a castrated colony of the EU. Posted by: dh-mtl | Nov 30 2020 17:14 utc | 6 To be fair, the people who didn't like free movement of immigrants competing for lower tier work are most likely not the ones complaining about restricted access to their European holiday homes, and it's fairly disingenuous to try to frame the issue that way. Posted by: tspoon | Nov 30 2020 17:26 utc | 7 Brexit fascinates me, as it is a laboratory regarding what occurs when a political entity chooses to divorce itself from a dominate state. As a response to what people perceive to be a dictatorial/corrupt agenda by a dominant state people seem to either push for a changing the state, overthrowing it, or seceding from it. In the US we are taxed over 55% of the discretionary spending for support of the Department of Defense Industries. As people grow poorer due the Empire's decline, and increased wealth inequity, more and more people are becoming aware of this fact and wondering exactly who is the beneficiary of this wealth transfer. Some Libertarians talk of succession, and some of the left talks of "revolution". IMHO in order for changes to take place, the sanctioned national sources of information must be disregarded,the cost/benefit of continuing relations to the state must be apparent enough for people to be willing to weather the transition, and people must be united on an action. While the US populace is currently too brainwashed and divided, it appears, at least to me, that the UK is approaching that point. Brits must currently be weighing out if they benefit enough from the taxes lost, vs possible benefits received by not being tied to such a bureaucracy, but as the adage goes, will the new boss be the same as the old boss? Posted by: Michael | Nov 30 2020 17:29 utc | 8 A lot of this is scare talk BS. In fact there will be abundant work-arounds and Brits owning 2nd homes in Spain will have easy to obtain visa extensions. In the end Britain and the Brits will be no more disaccommodated by Brexit than Americans are from not being part of the EU. Posted by: erik | Nov 30 2020 17:32 utc | 9 The brexiters unfurling the flag, that is fine, but something else will come to an end with Brexit, health care tourism. Our regional hospital in Southern Spain was always full with english patients, they not only demanded free health care but translators also since the lords of the galaxy do not have to learn any other language but the whiteman's. Something else that will come to an end, the stomach ache scam, yes, we have our gizzards so accustomed to hormones and chemicals in food that we want a free holiday. Never saw Russian tourists with a calculator in their hand when the bill came, the Brits: calculations ‘till the last penny. Ciao bambini, you won’t be missed. https://english.elpais.com/elpais/2018/10/31/inenglish/1541000032_097733.html Posted by: Paco | Nov 30 2020 17:40 utc | 10 |
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"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor. This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community. Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com.
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What will happen to Scotland?
There is rumor that they will try again for independence referendum .
Posted by: Arata | Nov 30 2020 16:40 utc | 1