Iran Election Preview

By Bernhard, editor of Moon of Alabama

Enemies of Iran's theocratic government, especially followers of the formerly US designated terrorist but now ally of US, the People's Mujahedin, MEK, a cult responsible for many bloody acts of war and sabotage against Iran, consider Raisi a war criminal. His popularity however is not in doubt.

The list of seven presidential hopefuls was unveiled by Iranian state media on Tuesday. The candidates have been picked from nearly 600 people who submitted their bids for approval. The list is dominated by political hardliners, including judiciary chief Ebrahim Raisi, believed to be a very close figure to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a favorite in the upcoming polls.

Raisi ran for president before, losing to the incumbent president, Hassan Rouhani, back in 2017 by a wide margin of nearly 20% of the votes. Rouhani is barred from running for office again due to legal limitations, as he has already served the maximum allowed two consecutive four-year terms.

Two candidates who I would have liked to see running were disqualified.

One was former parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani on the reformist side who had supported the current President Rouhani in the Majles (parliament). The reformists, who had banked on the nuclear deal, lost support when Trump shunned it and sanctions brought the economy down. The Majles now has a conservative majority and the upcoming presidential elections will likely also trend towards a conservative candidate.

But if Larijani had been allowed to run the election would also have been a real contest between the conservative and reformist side. Without such a contest the voter participation in the election will be on the lower side. That might damage the system's legitimacy.

Golnar Motevalli @golnarM - 11:19 utc · May 25, 2021

Fars news says the latest poll indicates participation in Iran's presidential election will be 53%.
Of those who said they will definitely turn up and vote, 72.5% said they'll pick Raisi.

On the conservative side I would have liked to see the former president (2005-2013) Mahmoud Ahmadinejad being allowed to run. While the establishment - in Iran and in the 'west' - despised his style, working-class people in Iran tend to like him. A February poll by the University of Maryland asked "who would you want to be Iran’s next president". 28.2% named Raisi while 15.1% named Ahmadinejad. All other candidates had much lower values.

A confusing aspect of Iranian politics is that the social conservatives, which the west unfairly calls 'hardliners', are on the social-democratic left on economic issues while the socially liberal reformers tend to favor the bazaari and capitalists. Still, it is not yet clear to me what Raisi's economic preferences and policies are.

The election will be held on June 18. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Iran are still negotiating about the U.S. return to the nuclear deal. The Biden administration has been very slow to work on the issue and thereby destroyed all election hopes for the reformists in Iran. It also made it more likely that the attempt to return to the deal will fail as the soon ruling conservatives in Iran will likely oppose any condition the U.S. is trying to attach to it.

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The views expressed are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post