China’s reunification with Taiwan might perhaps happen sooner than expected

The grassroots support for Prof Chang is amazing. There are thousands of comments on Youtube clips in which the dark horse candidate explains his policy, and practically 100% supports him. It appears that he has stirred up a political storm. If he intends to push for unification regardless of whether he wins the KMT leadership or not, and therefore creates a movement, he may become a power to be reckoned with. In fact, Prof Chang could overturn the Taiwan political applecart. We are now faced with several scenarios all of which mean the realization of the One-China union probably within the next five years. Let me explain. It's another long essay; have patience.

I wrote in August of 2020 about a great strategic opportunity for China to unilaterally unify with Taiwan with minimal risk. It was based on the predictions, all of which were backed by simple observation, that (1) Trump would certainly lose the election (2) Trump would certainly not concede (3) Trump would therefore try to destabilize America in order to remain president (4) Trump would likely not succeed but he would create a royal mess (5) Biden would no doubt continue the war on China, and would use Taiwan as a pawn. Biden's public protestations of America's love of peace are laughable lies that will fool no one.

All of the predictions have come about. There was however an overestimation of Trump's team. Trump was not surrounded by geniuses, and rather than stopping the legal ratification of the Electoral College's votes in December, he used the mob to disrupt the formality at Congress in January. It was an asinine and meaningless task. Trump will suffer the consequences of his stupidity.

At the end of October 2022, just a few days before the presidential election, I wrote another article explaining how it would be possible for China to unilaterally effect reunification with Taiwan without much risk of bloodshed. One only needs to look at how Russia reunified with Crimea without firing a single bullet, and recently how easy it has been for the Taliban to reconquer Afghanistan to know that it's possible. First of all, the narrative must be changed from "Unification by Military Force" or Wutong [武统] to "Defending Taiwan from Traitors and Foreigners." I'd like to see anyone try to stop the PLA from doing its duty of defending the sovereignty of China. ROC soldiers are conscripted, most of them are ordinary young men and women with a family and the prospect of going home to live a long and fruitful life, hopefully in a peaceful and prosperous society. They're not going to be stupid, as long as they understand that the PLA is coming to help them do their job, which is also to defend Taiwan from traitors and foreigners.

Now, it is not possible that I was the only person who had the perspicacity to notice the strategic situation. General Miley noticed it and he made secret calls to his counterpart in China before the election on Oct. 30th and two days after the Jan. 6 Trump revolution fiasco. Pundits and mouthpieces have made all kinds of comments on Miley's secret calls to the enemy, but they're all wrong. It was indeed as General Miley had explained, he was simply doing his job. General Miley called to deliver a tiresome Nixonian madman threat--we have a mad man at the helm and he may send nukes your way, so don't do anything to give him an excuse. The poor general also had to deliver a contradicting message--at the same time, America is not falling apart; everything is hunky-dory and the well-oiled machine is running smoothly. Which is to say, the Pentagon and the army are standing ready to attack when ordered.

If I was General Milley and I knew China had a window of opportunity to take Taiwan at no cost, completely turning the geopolitical tables on the US ring of fire around China, as well as controlling the majority of the world's output in microchips, that's what I would do to stop them. If I was China, I would of course ignore him. America is good at posturing and bullying small countries; just check out its wars since WWII. It will not destroy its dollar hegemony and the printed façade of its wealth by starting a nuclear war with China. Just think if you're the owner of a vast orchard with your finger on a button that will burn everything to ashes, including yourself and your family, would you do it just to kill off squirrels picking nuts from your trees? I guess not. The madman threat is just a ruse. it won't even fool the squirrels. As I said before, not a single American will die for Taiwan. The orchard owners are not as stupid as we think, or they would not be owners and we, their slaves.

I think, although I don't know for sure, that China should know about all this, but it probably felt that a major factor was missing, and therefore preferred to wait for another opportunity. This factor is mentioned in the second article. Once the PLA takes Taiwan, how will China govern it? It is a headache if you do not know for certain that everything will run smoothly rather than turn into a bloody mess. China no longer trusts the KMT, whose leaders are discredited and ridiculed, how can China depend on them to maintain order?

The emergence of Prof Chang and his army of ardent supporters from the general population provides a clarity that China needs for Unification. What China needs is to change its narrative of Wutong to defending China and Taiwan. The final contest for the KMT Chair is between Prof Chang Ya-chung and KMT Party apparatchik Eric Chu Li-luan [朱立伦]. The younger incumbent Johnny Chiang Chi-chen [江启辰] is a distant third. The fourth candidate Cho Po-yuan [卓伯源] is non-existent. Prof Chang and Eric Chu are in a dead heat. No one can predict the outcome of Saturday's vote. Prof Chang's participation and his Unification policy will at a minimum create a historic turnout. The dark horse candidate is already causing much excitement not only for the KMT but his clarion call for peace talks with mainland China is eliciting a groundswell of support from outside the party. This exposes the lie that people of Taiwan support only DPP's (Democratic Progressive Party) policy of antagonism against China or KMT's policy of the everlasting status quo of ambiguity. A new and powerful voice says let us negotiate for union and peace for prosperity and a future for our children, and it is resonating on the island.

Scenario 1: Prof Chang wins the chair and proceeds with his Unification plan. I won't go into details here, but his plan is a viable one and receives quite a bit of grassroot support even at this early stage. It may have something to do with Prof Chang's charisma and his ability to win all his debates by logic and eloquent elocution, letting his opponents expose themselves as morons and moral midgets. Assuming the Unification path becomes a KMT policy, it will culminate in the presidential election in 2024 as a contest of KMT's peace with China vs DPP's antagonism leading inevitably to war with China. If KMT's candidate wins, then there will be a peaceful progression towards a negotiated unification. Let me place a caveat right here. It will likely not happen smoothly because the US will not let it happen. When push comes to shove, expect the chaos of Hong Kong to repeat on the streets of Taiwan or worse.

Scenario 2: Many obstacles stand in front of Prof Chang even if he wins the KMT Chair. He may have to resign because the party scuttles his Unification plan, his Unification MOU with China may not be passed in KMT, and the KMT presidential candidate may lose out to the DPP candidate in 2024. Then what?

Scenario 3: Eric Chu wins the KMT Chair, the comatose establishment of KMT breathes a sigh of relief, and goes back to their sinking ship, hoping the ship will somehow right itself by a miracle. It will not.

So all three scenarios say Prof Chang's plan will fail. How will Unification happen? It will happen because China now knows about the latent support for peace in Taiwan with the mainland. The Taiwanese people didn't have a smart and courageous politician to take them to the promised land. But now they have Prof Chang. It is therefore important for China to change its narrative from Wutong to Defend the Homeland. It is a unifying call, and it's not hard to understand what it means. China and Prof Chang should talk about Unification regardless of what official status Chang has. Hire Prof Chang as a Peace consultant if necessary. But direct talk means that Prof Chang will understand his potential role as the leader and organizer of an interim government in case the PLA needs to defend Taiwan from traitors and foreigners, most likely within hours and without bloodshed.

It will take time for Prof Chang, assuming he agrees, to prepare the infrastructure for such an interim government without violating any laws. The reward to Prof Chang for doing this is the solemn undertaking by the Chinese government to provide a high degree of self-rule for Taiwan and to let the Taiwanese people run their own affairs despite China having effected unilateral unification. The five year period is a reasonable timeline, and by then, China will have surpassed the US in all aspects of wealth production, America will still be dealing with another Covid wave (I wrote an article explaining why), and Xi will be confident of success, establishing his legacy for future generations, so that the Central Committee of the CPC could start working on an orderly succession by bringing the next generation of leaders to the forefront. Beyond that, all is murky and muck, but stay healthy and we will live to witness history.

PM

UPDATE: Prof. Chang came up a tight runner-up, and his KMT faction/movement is not liable to melt away any time soon.