China in the crosshairs – is a war in the Far East and Pacific next?

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The Saker


China's new space station. Beijing is taking gigantic leaps in aerospace technology.

As in my previous post, I will begin by referring you to two pieces.

First, the typical China-bashing propaganda: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/taiwan-bristles-lashes-out-after-chinas-record-aerial-show-force

Second, a very solid debunking of the China-bashing crap above: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2021/10/how-ap-reuters-and-scmp-propagandize-their-readers-against-china.html

How AP, Reuters And SCMP Propagandize Their Readers Against China

A typical 'western' anti-China propaganda claim is that China is using its military aggressively. 'Western' news agencies do this on a regular base when they report of Chinese air maneuvers around Taiwan.

This report by the South China Morning Post, based on AP and Reuters items, is a perfect example for that:

25 Chinese warplanes enter Taiwan’s air defence zone

Taiwan’s air force scrambled again on Friday to warn away 25 Chinese aircraft that entered its air defence zone, according to the defence ministry in Taipei.

Taiwan has complained for a year or more of repeated missions by China’s air force, often in the southwestern part of its air defence zone close to the Taiwan-controlled Pratas Islands.

The latest PLA air force mission involved 18 J-16 and four Su-30 fighters plus two nuclear-capable H-6 bombers and an anti-submarine aircraft, the Taiwan ministry said.

It said Taiwan sent combat aircraft to warn away the PLA aircraft, while missile systems were deployed to monitor them.

The Chinese aircraft all flew in an area close to the Pratas, with the two bombers flying closest to the atoll, according to a map that the ministry issued.

I do not believe that China would fly its bombers and jets into Taiwan's "air defense zone" because that is the geographic area where Taiwan would actually shoot to take them down.

By the way, I also highly recommend to all my readers to read Moon of Alabama (https://www.moonofalabama.org/) at least once a day.  ‘b’ is a very solid analyst and his website is superb.  Even better is the fact that he often writes about topics I do not cover, or he covers them differently, so make sure to check him out daily 🙂

Now about China.


The PLA on parade. No one can match the Chinese soldiers' marching precision.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that the Anglos have had China in the crosshairs for a while and that now China has become the evil, devious boogeyman #1, displacing Russia from that position.   By the way, this hysterical paranoia and hatred of China is equally shared by the two indistinguishable factions of the single Imperial Party which runs the USA: hatred for China is a political consensus, at least in the USA ruling class (hence the stupid “CCP virus” expression and other such illiterate infantilisms).

Here is my strictly personal and subjective interpretations of what happened and why China is now the Official Enemy Number One, the Hypervillain #1.

I will begin by comparing China to the other two AngloZionist Official Hypervillain Enemies Number 2 and 3.

Russia.  The US/NATO/EU policy on Russia has comprehensively failed.  It has failed politically (the Evil Putin “KGB killer” is still in power and does not even have a semi-serious competitor; (pro-western sentiments in Russias are now somewhere in the 1-2 percent max), economically (Russia has recovered from both sanctions and the COVID induced crisis and is booming, at least compared to the West) and militarily (the US and NATO are now the proverbial paper tigers).  Finally, the entire “Ukrainian strategy” has also faceplanted and has now turned into an unmanageable nightmare for the EU (which richly deserves this). In other words, Europe is now a “bad place” for the USA which really can’t do much to change that reality.

Iran.  The US/NATO/EU policy on Iran has also comprehensively failed.  Yes, Iran is going through very difficult times, the sanctions and COVID did, and are still, hurting it, but militarily Iran has successfully defeated the AngloZionist alliance in two ways: first, by deterring the AngloZionists from a direct attack (so far) and by showing its true capabilities with its superb missile strikes on US bases: a CENTCOM+Israeli attack on Iran would be suicidal, and the AngloZionists know it (even while they deny it).  Add to this the Russian+Iranian victory in Syria and the terminal inability of the Israelis to deal with Hezbollah and Saudis to deal with the Houthis, and you will see that the Middle East is yet another “bad place”  for the USA which really can’t do much to change that reality (if they attack Iran it will be the end of Israel and CENTCOM). And I won’t even mention the Kabul event which showed to the world the true face and capabilities of the US armed forces.

Which logically leaves only China as the Official Enemy Number One Hypervillain.  Here are a few reasons for that:

  • China is the biggest and strongest economic power on the planet and the Chinese are geniuses in commerce and trade.
  • China and Russia have a very successful alliance which the Anglos tried very hard to break by spreading anti-Chinese propaganda in Russia and anti-Russian propaganda in China.  The result?  The two countries are MORE than “just” allied, they are symbionts who are so “perfectly different” and that “fit together” like Lego pieces!
  • China has made incredible progress in the military field: in the 80s and 90s, China had a huge military, but which was decades behind the USA and the USSR/Russia.  This is now changing very very fast and has been for 20 years.
  • While the US has a money printing press, China has actual technologies and real manufacturing capabilities and the outcome here is not in doubt: it’s just a matter of time before the quasi-industrialized USA becomes un-rescuable by just printing billions of dollars.
  • The US cannot control the Chinese Internet, which deprives it from its main weapon (all that crap about human rights, the (non-) massacre in Tienanmen, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Tibet etc. etc. etc. as if the West was not the worst violator of human rights on the planet, and by far!)

I am sure there are many more reasons, but the above is just a sample.  It is crucial to keep in mind the difference between reasons and pretexts.  Nobody in the western ruling class gives a damn about human rights or any other Chinese problems (fictional or very real).  And I am not denying that there are real problems in China, like in any other country by the way.  I am saying that the western rhetoric about China is hypocritical crap.

Also, China does have real weaknesses.  I will list only the few I am aware of:

  • While the Chinese military has made immense progress, it is mostly technological.  Russian officers who trained with their Chinese counterparts regularly report that the “culture” of the Chinese ground forces is still much inferior to, say, the Russian ones.  But I bet you that a Chinese soldier in defense of his own land will outperform any Anglo imperialist soldier fighting for “democracy” (Ha!) thousands of miles away from home.  Again, like the USA, the Chinese culture is not really a military one and the strengths of the Chinese lie elsewhere (commerce, emigration, business, etc.).  Also, it is likely that the problems reported by Russian military advisors about the Chinese ground forces do not apply to “high tech” domains such as aerospace, acoustics, etc.  Finally, even if  historically the Chinese are not a nation of born warriors, it is likely that this weakness is much more evident in “general purpose” military forces and is much less applicable to the PRC’s specialized and high-tech forces (Air Force, Navy, special forces, ELINT, etc.)
  • The Chinese are still struggling in some key military technology domains, such as aircraft engines, but they are catching up really fast.  From the Anglo point of view, this means that it is a “now or never” situation, lest China accomplishes what Russia did between 2000 and 2021, which they might.
  • China, like Russia, is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious state, which is why the Anglos always try to use this diversity against the peoples of China (they failed in Russia, but in Chechnia they came very close, so we should never discount that real Anglo capability!).
  • China is run by the Chinese Communist Party which inevitably brings images of Nike-Gulags, devious secret agents and all the rest of the stuff Anglos like to scare themselves with.  That the word “Communism” in 2021 has a totally different meaning than in the 20th century is too complex a notion for many to even contemplate.
  • As many of my readers know, I do not consider that Russia is culturally part of Europe, but it is geographically European, at least west of the Urals, and the Russians are (mostly) “White”, which western racists nowadays seem to like a lot (not so much in the times of Nazi Europe, obviously).  So the bad old European racism, itself a pretext for imperialism, is even worse with these “Fu-manchu gooks”.  Sinophobia has a particularly long history in the United States, much older than russophobia, by the way.
  • China is at least partially surrounded by Anglo colonies run by comprador elites (Taiwan, Japan, etc.) and by countries who fear the very real regional influence and power of China (Philippines, India, etc.).
  • The US has some truly ideal “unsinkable bases” in the region (Japan, Hawaii, Australia, etc.) which are hard to neutralize (but that is also changing, and quickly).

Again, this is a partial list, and I am sure that our commentators can expand on this, or point out that some of my assumptions are simply wrong.

But let’s not overthink this either.

The western ruling elites are in a panic and they are consolidating into a smaller but potentially tougher “Anglosphere” whose best (or “least bad”) positions are in the Pacific (as I have always maintained, big, multinational alliances are great as fig-leafs to justify imperialism, but militarily they inevitably suck, badly).  From their point of view, this policy of “circling the wagons” (expression straight from genocidal, imperialistic times) makes sense and is really the own viable option.

I will mention a few good news, and then let our commentators take over.  Here are a few good ones:

  • Russia will never allow the Anglosphere to defeat China militarily.  Simply put, she can’t afford it.  I will make a prediction: Chinese SSNs will, in the near future, get much better sensors and integration, they “develop” better-quieting technologies and faster SSNs with smaller crews and superior automation.  As for Chinese aircraft, they are already very impressive, and China does not have the same need as Russia for advanced long-range strategic bombers (where they still lag behind the most): they can use missiles instead.
  • The pace of progress of the PRC is truly amazing and, unlike Russia’s, the Chinese industrial base is huge and once they “get” a technology “right” – they can produce it in huge amounts.  So even IF the best Chinese submarine is still inferior or, at best, more or less on par, with the original Los Angeles class, they can produce them (and other ships or aircraft) in much larger amounts than the Anglosphere.
  • The Chinese space program does, to my admittedly non-engineer eyes, look much more promising than the PR crap of Bezos or Musk managed to peddle to the terminally misinformed US taxpayer.  This is very important, crucial even, for modern warfare.
  • The Chinese leaders are (FINALLY!) speaking up!!  In the past, it was all Putin and Russia, the Chinese mostly kept a low profile, but now they are confident enough to call a “stone and stone” and they are very successfully hitting back at the Anglo propaganda, openly and bluntly.
  • By all accounts, the Chinese are proud patriots who will not sell their newly and very painfully acquired sovereignty to anybody (good for them, may all countries follow this model!).  They also know history, including how the Anglos waged war on them to sell opium (no crap about human rights then, just brute gang warfare).  They can also look at modern Japan and see what true Anglo domination can do to an ancient and noble culture.

Again, I invite you all to add to this list, or dispel my misconceptions!

My personal bottom line is this: the major powers are all preparing for a major war in Far East Asia and the Pacific.  God willing, and with the wise leadership of Putin and Xi, it will never happen.

But yes, China is, in my opinion, definitely in the Anglo crosshairs.

Now I turn this over to you.

Hugs and cheers


Andrei is the founding editor of The Saker network of sites dedicated to analyses of the epochal conflict between the AngloZionist Empire and the sovereign bloc of nations led by Russia, China and Iran.  


S E L E C T  C O M M E N T S


One point not mentioned, which is a huge advantage.

The US needs to project power and exert hegemony far from its ‘island’ base.
China (like Russia) is in the business of defense.
Offense requires far more resources and global logistics.
Offense is always more difficult.
It is easier to find good defenders than genius strikers (even in soccer).

  • The attacker’s advantage is that they get to choose when, where and how to fight and they wouldn’t launch an offensive if it isn’t going to succeed *in the short term*. The medium and long term problem for the attacker is what happens when the defender absorbs the attack, figures out how to counter the attacker’s tactics and launches a counter attack? It’s the counter-attack that keeps the generals awake at night.

    In terms of Taiwan, it doesn’t have the land mass (and consequently, the in-depth defence) needed to absorb an attack to give it time to develop a counter-attack. That means that the war will be over before anyone can react militarily.

    As such, Taiwan’s only option is to make sure an attack isn’t possible in a strategic sense, and there are only two ways I can see that happening: 1) pack the island with US troops, say 50,000+ positioned around Taiwan operated anti-air and anti-shipping missiles, and dare China to shoot without harming US personnel. 2) Have the US organise for Israel to quietly give Taiwan a couple of nuclear armed SSB’s as a MAD deterrence and announce the fact to the world once the boat is on station somewhere in the Pacific.

    • The attacker’s advantage is that they get to choose when

      True, and it is hard to remain on high defensive alert, so here I agree.
      But that is one factor amongst many more.
      But yes, seizing the initiative can create a HUGE advantage.
      That is why intelligence services are for (at least in Zone B).
      Cheers!

    • China also has the ability to choose the time of attack.

      The US clearly plans to use Taiwan as the tool to goad China into making a false move. No doubt the Chinese are aware of it and have plans to deal with it.

      My guess is there will be a Chinese initiated “colour revolution” in Taiwan with the intention to increase demands for reunification with China. This will force the US hand to either step up its political involvement in Taiwan or overtly take over the island. Either way the initiative will be with China.

      Taiwanese have seen the fate of Afghanistan and I am sure they are acutely aware of their position. As with Korea and Japan most realise their position as an instrument of US imperial objectives but don’t say much about it. In any case there is a big chunk of the population, perhaps even the majority that wants reunion.

      • I do not feel that the CCP will use military force on Taiwan, only if forced somehow by other powers. As a Chinese, there is an understanding of brotherly love between Taiwanese and Mainlanders, despite all the propaganda saying otherwise. There is also an understanding in the CCP leadership that such a war, even a quick and relatively painless one, will create casualties from the civilian population, which the CCP sees as it’s own people, a brotherly people under the rule of a usurper (often aided and abetted by foreign western powers). It will not needlessly draw casualties in such a war, unless it’s hand was forced unreasonably. Even though it knows that the Taiwan “democratic” project is a sham, the humanity aspect of a civil war is something that CCP elites do not simply gloss over like western elites. Maybe this is a biased construction, but I sincerely get this impression as a person who grew up in China.

    • Why does China have to use military force against Taiwan?

      Taiwanese investment in the mainland is huge and can be used as leverage by mainland authorities. Taiwan is already trying to dissuade high tech labour from accepting the attractive packages offered on the mainland.

      Any of the military moves by outsiders, that you suggest, would be countered immediately by China.

    • « The attacker’s advantage is that they get to choose when, where and how to fight … »

      Generally true, but I am afraid is not applicable in a hypothetical conventional US attack against China. Given the size of China and her distance from the US, such an attack would require tremendous amount of logistical support, which takes months of preparations.

      How long did the US prepare for Operation Overlord? Even though, the vast majority of the Wehrmacht was fighting in Russia, the US still needed to prepare extensively. There is a reason why Rommel anticipated the invasion. Desert Storm? Desert Storm II?

      Even if the US would rope Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan into the war, preparations would be difficult to escape attention. I assume that just watching fuel deliveries would give a good idea of the intentions.

      Of course, the US could do a good “hit-and-run” attack with forces already in the area, but this would provide zero gains but unknown consequences. China has plenty of options to create pain to discourage such scenarios. For example, hitting the Japanese industrial zone between Osaka and Tokyo would collapse the western economy and make the area uninhabited due to the chemical spills.

      In short, I fail to see what military options the US has in the area.

      • Tollef Ås/秋涛乐/טלפ וש on October 04, 2021  ·  at 9:15 am EST/EDT

        Your reasons for admiring the “true chinese-ness” of Táiwan hinjes on the fact that the Japanese (1898-1946) carried through a rather brutal land reform so as to exterminate the influence of upper-class Qíng loyalist famiies (and even a few Míng loyalists!). And then came Jiáng Jiésh´’s Guómíndǎng Chinese army from the mainland and massacred some 35,ooo netive Hàn Chinese (mostely Minnan and Hakka speakers. So all.in-all, Táiwan may be said to have just a just as bloody and repressive history as “People’s China” had 1952-1969.

    • But right now, huge part of Taiwan Leadership “ruling elites” (almost all pro Taiwan-independence, but in different level), believe a war with China wouldn’t be suicidal (at least this is what they said, and said officially to their citizens and foreign countries, and are still saying), just see this article.

      https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/taiwan-preparing-for-war-with-china/100511294
      “If China is going to launch a war against Taiwan we will fight to the end, and that is our commitment.”
      “I’m sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.”

      And Remember, Joseph Wu is Taiwan FM, (Sometimes, in here, Taiwan, I doubt it that he is also Taiwan DM).
      So this IS Taiwan ruling elites official position and statement.

      Even they don’t believe this nonsense privately, they said/ are saying/and will say this kind of things again, again, and again, publicly and superficially.
      AND HUGE PART (even not absolutely majority people, but I would said at least 30%+, 40% IMO)OF TAIWAN PEOPLE TRULY BELIEVE THIS SUICIDAL NONSENSE.

      This make the situation even more danger then most people (especially Taiwan people) think.

      Finally, I would pray and hope the best. But the reality of Taiwan politic doesn’t support my hope and pray, maybe miracle or something else will.

  • @Webej, about attack and defense: I remember from my army service, for on the ground operations, if all other things are even (technology of arms readiness for battle), attacker needs 4 units of anything to have a chance to beat 1 unit of the same thing on defense side. That is for ground operations. Why would not it be similar ratio for air and missile forces and navy. A surprise or not so surprise attacks work against adversaries like Somalia, Iraq, Sudan, Libya, Serbia, to a degree where attacker units vs defense did have 10:1 ratio (number of aircraft, ship launched missiles).

    Like Andrei noted – USA/NATO might have had advantage in numbers of offensive units over China – in 1980. Since then Zone A countries have gone down in all areas of life, and lag behind China and Russia in so many things today. Russia was destroyed in 1990, yet they recovered. However, Zone A has no education, health or resource management skills necessary to get back on their feet. China and Russia will at least provide better care for injured and wounded in that hypothetical war. Whatever Zone A had 40 years ago has gone by now – human resources, all other resources as well. For Pete’s sake, UK cannot find enough truck drivers to deliver food and fuel? Do they really believe if they go to aggressive war all those problems at home will disappear? People hungry and cold will go to war to the opposite end of the world for what?

    No worries, USA UK NATO have no advantages at all, nor they have means to wage a war of that magnitude.

  • Andrei wrote: China is definitely in the Anglo crosshairs.

    I fully agree.
    The war propaganda is in full swing, just take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=US+UK+and+Japan+send+aircraft+carriers+to+Taiwan

    After the 9/11 induced Global: Terror – Wars of aggression – Financial fraud – Migrant crisis – Color Revolutions – Covid crisis – Energy crisis and hyperinflation, the European vassal Nations have had enough of the Evil Empire.
    The Evil Empire is now reduced to being a British Empire, with the Crown calling the shots, and their vassals USA, Canada, Australia, India and Japan being the ones firing the shots.
    It makes you wonders how long the American, Australian and Japanese people, will accept their vassalage to the Crown, and being the first nations in line for Chinese retaliation.

    The Global Elite now fears its western population more than the CCP, and the only reason why the resurrected British Empire is “Circling the wagon”, is for the Global Elite to have a good public excuse for handing over Taiwan and Australia to China, when the first nuclear strike hits a Japanese aircraft carrier.

    • “In military terms, only a war would prove it, ”

      China already proved that it could defeat US + 17 nations, in 1950. And that was at a time when PRC was dirt poor, technologically and industrially backward, and internally unstable (e.g. Sichuan and Tibet unsettled, Chiang Kai-Sek still had forces in mainland, …)

    • San’s comment is pure racism, as you point out. But you say that “the US has never been able to win a real war”. Is that the deciding factor? I could propose that they have never lost a real war, from the Korean War until now. (I know, the Chinese like to think that they won that war but the outcome looked like stalemate to me.) Sure, the USAmericans have disengaged from many wars but were they defeated? I don’t think so. When was the last time anyone noticed a USAmerican General agreeing to terms of surrender? Despite all their rhetoric about eternal values such as freedom and democracy, the USAmericans seem always to initiate wars for short- to medium-term gains, which they seem to usually achieve. At great long-term cost admittedly.

      • Yes the Korean War is a stalemate but it is seen as a Chinese victory as it legitimized the CPC as a Chinese force that was able to stand up against a much more powerful US and its “allies” after a century. Despite heavier casualties and lack of firepower compared to the UN forces the PVA was able to rout them.

        The US leadership has been scared of a direct military confrontation with China ever since. The fact the US fought a limited war in Vietnam, avoiding sending boots on the ground in the North emphasized this. If the US were as confident or arrogant to think that China would be a “cake walk” like the Iraq was they would have done the same already. Instead murica has to resort to underhanded tactics like sanctions, color revolutions, hostage diplomacy, alliances with “allies” all in an attempt to contain China, which have all failed.

    Read the rest of the comments, if you like, HERE. 
     

    Addendum
    By The Saker


     

    These two books are absolutely unique and, in my opinion, invaluable.

    First, let’s talk about the parades themselves.

    Both in the Soviet times and in the post 1991 Russia, the Victory Day parades have had a very special meaning to both the Russian people and for their enemies.  These were not just “patriotic shows” (which they definitely are), but also a way to show to the Russian people and their enemies the latest achievements of the Russian military industry.  Furthermore, for military specialists, what might look like a boring parade of military hardware to a civilian can yield extremely valuable information not only about the hardware itself, but also about the Russian military thinking.  One example:

    Russian tanks tend to be very different from their western counterparts.  They are all the product of compromises: the ideal tank is light, can cross rivers or even float, small, indestructible, fast and has unstoppable weapons – but in reality such a tank cannot be built as these criteria, and many many more, are mutually exclusive.  For example, tank building countries can put so much armor on their tanks that they would be close to impossible to breach (at least in theory), but the weight and size of the tank will make them huge which, in turns, limit the kind of bridges they can cross, what kind of river banks they can climb or how big they will look in the targeting systems of the enemy.  Then there is the issue of costs.  Would you rather have one (purely theoretically) “perfect” tank costing X or 10 “somewhat less than perfect” tanks for the same price (or even less!)?

    https://canfora.se/product/the-russian-army-on-parade-1992-2017/

    So, as most weapons systems, tanks are the results of very complex compromises and a trained eye will even see what kind of terrain and tactics one tank has been designed for, as opposed to another tank.  Furthermore, if you look “deeper” inside the tank (even by its external features) you can make some good guesses on the kind of sensors or communication systems these tanks probably have.  Of course, the Soviets and the Russians always knew that, so they carefully decide what they do want to show or don’t want to show.  They can even deliberately try to hide the real capabilities of any weapons system/platform from “unfriendly eyes”.


    https://canfora.se/product/the-75th-commemoration-parade-pre-order/


    I mention all of the above to explain that these two superb volumes (filled with hundreds of excellent color photographs!) are not just for hardware geeks and technology fanboys, they are a voyage through Russian military thinking!

    The first volume covers the Russian military parades in the 1990s, then those in the 2000s and then those in the 2010s.  It concludes with a commented index of all the hardware shown between 1992-2019.

    The second volume covers “only” the truly amazing parade in 2020 for the 75th commemoration of the defeat of Nazi Germany.

    One might wonder, what about the Soviet, pre-1991 parades?

    Here you have to remember that the development cycle for a weapons system/platform can take years or even decades, so almost all the current Russian military technologies have deep roots in Soviet military thinking.  Furthermore, the design philosophy of a complex weapons system can change over time, but often rather slowly.  This is simply an issue of common sense: why re-invent the wheel when it already works?  Of course, if the geostrategic environment changes dramatically, and instead of being deployed in eastern Europe the Russians now have NATO literally right across their border, things will change, and they have changed, often dramatically.

    These two volumes focus on post-Soviet, Russian, military parades, they will give the reader an superb insight into Soviet military thinking (as opposed to the crap western propaganda like to spew about it during the Cold War).  Of course, the fall (or, more accurately, the dismembering by the Party elites) of the Soviet Union in 1991 had a major impact on Russian military thinking and while much of the superb Soviet military and scientific capabilities still lies at the root of modern Russian weapon systems/platforms, a new generation of (often much younger) engineers and scientists has produced (quasi) purely ‘Russian’ technologies (such as the Su-57 or the “Armata” series).

    Thus, these volumes are also an extremely interesting way to look not at hardware, but at the evolution of Russian designs and their underlying force planning philosophy.

    I highly recommend these two volumes to all those who want to understand why Soviet/Russian designs are so different from their western equivalents.  And no, it is not true to say that Russians like cheap and sturdy while westerners prefer high tech (that is purely propaganda). But I think that it is true to say that Russian designs are by and for soldiers and war whereas western designs are mostly by and for engineers and for big, juicy, military contracts.

    If you want to see what kind of designs result from about 1000 years of existential, survival, warfare, then you can’t do better than getting these two volumes.  You will not be disappointed.

     

    The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of  The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience. 

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