Andrei Martyanov
REMINISCENCE OF THE FUTURE
Ukraine navy units, dockside.
Iam on record--incessantly--that one of the reasons the West finds itself where it is today is partially due to "elites" which are severely limited in their views on the realities of the 21st century. Those realities cannot be grasped without serious knowledge and experience which constitute an amalgamation of high-level technological expertise and historical insights as reminders. Reminders but nothing more, and even their reminders' role is for moral guidance primarily. Life and civilization proved already that, apart from human nature which is fairly static, extrapolations based solely on "historical precedents" are not only a fool's errand but could be highly misleading. Enter RT's latest "opinion piece" on 404* by a historian Tarik Cyril Amar on "War in Ukraine". His piece precisely fits the narrative behind many chickenhawks' behavior in D.C. because they cannot grasp realities. Amar writes:
In a large-scale land war between Russia and Ukraine without direct, military Western intervention on Kiev’s side, three things are likely to happen. The fighting would occur on Ukraine’s territory. In view of its superiority in men, arms, and capabilities, Russia would win. Yet, finally, it would pay a high price: at least parts of the Ukrainian military are much better prepared than in 2014, and they have experience and more robust morale now. Moreover, US President Joe Biden has promised to continue arming Ukraine and go “above and beyond” what it has already received. In sum, it would be unrealistic to expect anything but hard fighting and severe losses on both sides, not to speak of the mess any large-scale, long-term occupation would become. This would not be a re-run of Russia’s comparatively easy victory over Georgia in 2008.
The last phrase about 2008 betrays pretty much the main reason why many even in comments at RT noted that the piece is rubbish. Of course, it is. He draws and extrapolates from the Russian-Georgian War not understanding that those data are not only incorrect but highly misleading. I need to remind him (and people at RT who allow this sophomoric attempt at warfare writing) that Valery Gerasimov, quoting Alexander Svechin stated: “Each war represents an isolated case, requiring an understanding of its own particular logic, its own unique character.” For starters, Russia and her Armed Forces of 2021 and of 2008 are separated not just by 13 years, but by two generations of weapon systems and C4ISR. (1) So, here are some pointers to him:
1. The United States cannot supply 404 with anything which goes "above and beyond", because it cannot supply 404 with what the US has at the core of her own main striking and defensive capabilities (grossly overstated as such), because even to operate something like AD complex Patriot PAC3 (2) or, just for the sake of argument, F-35, let alone requiring their integration into the structures of VSU requires a few years of training and developing of procedures. So, "above and beyond" in this case means yet again--purchases of the older Soviet equipment and ammo from the former Warsaw Pact countries and shipping it to 404, such as rockets for MLRS, and continuation of supplying the communications and other tactical level hardware ranging from anti-tank weapons (Javelins) and anti-battery radar. Some FLIRs and night vision systems here and there, plus, "advisers". It wouldn't matter because all of that "above and beyond" is not survivable on the modern battlefield where Russian Armed Forces are present.
Russian Federation Coast Guard vessel.
2. Latest reports of Ukrainian "better prepared" VSU testify to a complete collapse of the morale, wide-spread drug and alcohol use, marauding for food and other signs of a "better prepared" force. Amar also doesn't understand how modern wars are fought in 2021. Everybody's favorite IPW (Initial Period of War) is basically a shutting down enemy's (VSU's) C4ISR (no, "above and beyond" NATO technology will not help, it also will be disabled) and then "working" the list of targets by stand-off weapons which cannot be stopped or intercepted which collapse completely any remaining Command and Control capability and after that Air Force begins reducing the remaining VSU force to pockets of panicked, shell-shocked, demoralized people. Only after that Russian armor and infantry, including tactical firepower such as TOS, Grad-K etc. begin to roll in to mop-up whatever is left. Simultaneously, stand-off strikes will be launched at the NATO and CIA ran facilities on the territory of 404 and most important, RuAF will be in the mode of intercepting and forcing landing of the personal aircraft which will be taking off from Borispol airport and airfields surrounding Kiev, carrying the Ukrainian government and "elites" trying to escape facing a war crimes tribunal in Moscow.
Pres. Putin inspecting a Black Sea fleet unit.
But that is a purely military thing. If Amar thinks that (just for the sake of argument) NATO forces will be somehow involved there in a full-blown scale war with Russia, I have news for him--the outcome will be pretty much the same, with the difference that NATO may lose not just many people but some very high value and prestigious assets such as destroyers and LHDs or aircraft carriers and a lot of armor. Like really a lot. In the end, Russians do not care about "sanctions" or "isolation", Amar needs to update himself on why it is so. I'll give him a hint: hysteria in the West is a direct result of this. Just recall that, among many other things, in June this year:
Russia is cutting the U.S. dollar from its $186 billion National Wealth Fund as Washington continues to impose sanctions on Moscow. The move was announced at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum on Thursday by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. “Like the central bank, we have decided to reduce investments of the NWF in dollar assets,” he told reporters, according to a Reuters translation, adding that the NWF will instead invest in euro, Chinese yuan and gold assets. The changes to the NWF are expected to happen within the next month. Once complete, the share of euro assets in the fund is expected to stand at 40%, the yuan at 30% and gold at 20%. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and British pound will likely make up 5% each.
So, I don't know why Amar wrote and RT published this rubbish but what is clear, the war will be very different from what Amar thinks and the US is desperate to start anything because 404 is a living proof of stupidly and myopia of America's ruling class. Keep an eye on this thing, could be interesting, especially after Gerasimov stated today that Russia will stop any provocations from 404.
A Ukrainian navy vessel, named the Donbass, has set course to pass through Russian territorial waters off the coast of Crimea and is ignoring warnings to turn around, border officials have reported. The incident comes at a time of heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine that have caused alarm internationally.In a statement issued late on Thursday night, Russia’s FSB announced that “on December 9 at 9.12am, the command ship ‘Donbass’ of the Ukrainian Navy left the port of Mariupol and began heading for the Kerch Strait.”According to officials, the vessel did not have permission to pass through the Russian-controlled Kerch-Yenikalsky canal that divides the Black Sea from the Sea of Azov.The Ukrainian crew have reportedly insisted that they do not intend to pass through the waters. However, according to the FSB, “at present, the Donbass is a distance of 18 nautical miles from the Kerch Strait and is not complying with the requirements to change course. These actions pose a threat to the safety of navigation.”
Geostrategic analyst ANDREI MARTYANOV is an expert on Russian military and naval issues. He was born in Baku, USSR in 1963. He graduated from the Kirov Naval Red Banner Academy and served as an officer on the ships and staff position of Soviet Coast Guard through 1990. His books (i.e., Losing Military Supremacy) analyse the decline of US military power and its inability to overcome challenges from Russia and other peer nations. Notes
* 404 = Ukraine ("nothing there"); a term of derision toward the utterly corrupt and Neonazi-infested Ukraine.
(1) C4ISR is an abbreviation created and used by the U.S. Department of Defense (USDoD), U.S. intelligence agencies, and U.S. allies which stands for “Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.” In current defense community vernacular, C4ISR refers to technologies and services that optimize situational awareness and actionable intelligence for military and intelligence decision makers to guide or execute their command and control directives.
(2) The PATRIOT Advanced Capability - 3 (PAC-3) is the Army's premier guided air and missile defense (AMD) system providing highly reactive hit-to-kill capability in both range and altitude while operating in all environments.
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