Andrei Martyanov: The A-Ha Moment…

Well, many don't even know Kennan's clarification of his policy of "containment". He stressed that he meant an ideological containment, but the US wanted a military one. In the end, Kennan and his experience were totally ignored and the new crop of American "diplomats"--badly educated, ignorant but high on American exceptionalism and influence of ethnoreligious lobbies in D.C.—decided that they knew better. They didn't. The results of this ignorant arrogance we all observe today. Nor should we forget that Kennan was not always that benign either, but at least he knew about Russia way more than the modern Department of State [movers and shakers] whose situational awareness in this regard is nearly non-existent. Ideology rules.

Well, first "results" of Russia sanctions are becoming already known:

Neither Qatar nor any other country has the ability to replace Russian gas supplies to Europe with liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the event of interruptions due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Qatari Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

OK, Russians know that. Then, this piece of news, obviously, explains some other economic "engines" behind the current massive geopolitical realignment:

The oil market will find it impossible to replace Russia’s oil, which accounts for 10 percent of global supply, Dmitry Marinchenko, senior director for natural resources and commodities at Fitch, told Russian media on Tuesday. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis could send oil prices to above $100 per barrel, according to Fitch’s expert. Early on Tuesday, oil prices surged close to $100 a barrel, with Brent Crude hitting a new seven-year high of $99 before easing to $97 per barrel after Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized late on Monday two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine and deployed troops there in the most serious escalation of the crisis yet.

You see? That explains why Russia not only anticipated but effectively sacrificed Nord Stream 2. In fact, Russia's reaction of disgust to Herr Scholz' attitudes towards war crimes committed by 404 in LDNR could have been the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back. You cannot deal with these people, they have no conscience and morals and Russians are pretty good at understanding when any activity becomes an exercise in futility.

In seemingly unrelated news, Russia and Azerbaijan reached a landmark agreement today (in Russian) and signed joint declaration on Allied Relations. This event is much bigger than one may expect and is indicative of a process of consolidation of Russia's near abroad not only as markets but safe economic and political environment. In related news, Russia is removing her diplomats from Kiev, rightly so--shit is about to hit the fan in Ukraine in industrial quantities. For people to understand what modern Ukraine is, the analogy to Gulyaipole may help with understanding when viewed as a center of Mahno movement. Mahno being a euphemism for anarchy, fluid loyalties and robbery. You know, like modern day Ukraine.

Putin’s move on Donestk, Lugansk is illegal but falls short of new ‘invasion. The next steps are critical: we must hold threat of full scale sanctions and a Ukrainian military response, until Russia extends farther.

They just don't learn. They are incapable of learning. Top-bottom. For Lieven, personally, learn the goddamn history of Russia in the 20th century before offering your ignorant opinion on the issues of mobilization and real economy before trying to make sense of the events of such a scale that the "professors" from your Cambridge College can not even wrap their pea-brains around it. Resign yourself to a simple fact that islanders (UK-and US) suck at real continental warfare and you know zilch about it in the 21st century (the same is applied to the real economy and R&D). Yet, they continue to bloviate. It is really nauseating reading sweeping generalizations on "strategy" from people who would not recognize the difference between uncertainty in getting an STD from a crack whore in London and uncertainty in targeting received from space-based assets when sensory fused with platforms' organic sensors. Yet, here we are, good ol' boys from "elite" colleges where they pretend to "study" trying to make sense out of what they see, having no tools to grasp it. That is why his "reasoning" reads like this:

Russia’s action has narrowed the space for diplomacy to resolve this crisis, but not yet destroyed it. As long as there is any hope of preventing a wider war, it is our duty to pursue it, both by the genuine and credible threat of massive economic sanctions, and by the genuine and sincere offer of reasonable compromise.

Sounds and reads like that of a totally detached from reality teenager. Sad, really, seeing this demagogue (together with Rod Dreher from TAC among many others) having a tribune in yet another pseudo "realist" remuneration source in D.C. Andrew Bacevich should know better. Especially the fact that US "diplomacy" is a simulacrum.