Sitrep Operation Z: Seppuku
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For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff
An interesting weekend is shaping up for those that watch the minutae. Military Summary Channel is now at this time standing head and shoulders above the rest in reporting.
As of the end of the day, June 2nd, where Russia is preparing the field to take Lysychansk on the high ground, difficult terrain and a river runs through it. (Severodonetsk and Lysychansk).
Ukraine. Military Summary And Analysis 02.06.2022
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https://rumble.com/v17489l-ukraine.-military-summary-and-analysis-02.06.2022.html
We can expect:
- an epic set-piece battle,
- or surprises by the Russians,
- or the Ukrainian soldiers just folding, laying down arms and waving the white flag, or abandoning their posts, going awol, having totally lost their will to do battle,
- or more videos pleading with their command to supply them with necessary food, weapons and support.
Russia will take Lysychansk, timing depends on how strong the will to live is, versus the will of the Ukrainian soldier’s Seppuku and this will again change the shape and future of the SMO.
Russia however does not fight small and the whole of the front line is under fire again.
In the wider world, the Gulf Arab States declared they will not sanction Russia. https://t.me/EurasianChoice/14604
Read carefully Andrei Maryanov’s essay on RS-28 Sarmat. http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/06/wrong-emphasis.html
Enjoy your discussion. Ukrainian propaganda still abounds and new videos are being made about how Russia is losing this war.
Special additional commentary by Andrei Martyanov
Thursday, June 2, 2022
The Sarmat Game Changer. (A real game-changer.)
Wrong Emphasis.
By Andrei Martyanov
Reminiscence of the Future
Not that I disagree with Rogozin in principle when he stated today that:
Translation: "The State Department said that the United States wants to maintain restrictions under START-3 after 2026, to achieve limits on "new types" of Russian nuclear weapons. Apparently, they are already dreaming of the Sarmat during their night sleep".
There is very little doubt that RS-28 Sarmat (1) as a strategic weapon, is not only unrivaled but also, in a good sense, a complete overkill. But that is the issue, even without Sarmat, the US has zero capability to stop what is known as head-on response (second-strike capability) of Russia. The US dabbling into the ABM technology for the last several decades produced, frankly, very little practical results and is no match for even a very limited second strike. Once one considers such weapons as Avangard hypersonic gliders (already on combat duty in 13th Missile Red Banner Division in Orenburg) and the fast-growing gap between the US and Russia in terms of hypersonic weapons such as 3M22 Zircon, which turns any SSGN carrying those missiles and deployed at both Pacific and Atlantic into de facto strategic strike platforms, one begins to grasp the scale of the problem facing the US.
Russia's RS-28 Sarmat Nuclear Missile Could Wipe Out an Area the Size of France In other words, the US neither has nor will have any time soon any capability to prevent a massive retaliation on its own territory in case the US decides to do the unthinkable. I want to remind you, again, about admissions that do come out periodically about a complete vulnerability of the continental US to any modern cruise missile technology, let alone salvos of supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles. It is a Congressional Budget Office report, no less.
Yes, RS-28 Sarmat is a unique technological achievement, but it shouldn't "simplify" the complexity of the retaliation issue which the US faces and obscure a larger strategic framework in which the actual military capability of the US is nowhere near the image it tried to project in the last couple of decades and, in fact, it now acts as a fast declining power following rigid and unimaginative dogma of Thucydides Trap, because even the ongoing SMO demonstrated huge limitations of the United States as a self-proclaimed global military power. In the end, who can ignore such "lovely" systems as Poseidon.
Which brings us to the statement of a newly appointed US Ambassador to 404 Bridget A. Brink who stated that it is for VSU to decide at what distance to shoot their weapons (in Russian). Brink, being a product of the US "diplomats" diploma mill, obviously, as is expected from the US "diplomats", has no clue what she is talking about, because the only subject which dominates US "diplomats" curriculum is bombast. For all her credentials, she still doesn't recognize that she is not anymore an ambassador to small Slovakia but to a country that is de facto non-existent anymore and is next to the only country in the world which can wipe the US off the map in 30 minutes. But as I said, you cannot buy culture, let alone proper education, especially in the US foreign policy establishment known for its incompetence.
There will be 4 HIMARS platforms with 80-kilometer range munitions delivered to Ukraine. Well, even from a purely military POV those make no difference whatsoever, granted, if they even make it to the front line, most likely they will be destroyed before that. But the issue of HIMARS is a "hot button" issue and is primarily PR spun to give Biden Administration precious little to grab onto when facing complete annihilation with its best ever proxy and facing mid-terms against the background of disastrous approval rating and actual economic calamity unfolding in the United States. I did a fast search (using GEICO's app for cheapest gas) and got a lovely spread of low-grade gas from $5 a gallon in Boston, to $6.50 in L.A. And I started to wonder, for how much longer will this charade continue, because, obviously, the country is ungovernable at this stage and PR procedures do not have the desired effect anymore. I know, that one has to conduct actual governance, not running constant election cycle routines and that they don't teach in the US universities.
NOTES
(1) The Sarmat is a three-stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range of 18,000 km and a launch weight of 208.1 metric tons.7 The missile is 35.3 meters long and 3 meters in diameter.8 Designated as a “heavy” ICBM, the Sarmat can carry a 10-ton payload and can load a wide variety of warhead options.9 According to Russian media, Sarmat can reportedly load up to 10 large warheads, 16 smaller ones, a combination of warheads and countermeasures, or hypersonic boost-glide vehicles.1011
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