Andrei Martyanov
REMINISCENCE OF THE FUTURE
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The fantasy-addicted Mr Kirby

Fantastical Thinking As MO...

Fantastical thinking began to dominate the Western political mind somewhere around the early 1990s and it never subsided. Many do think fantastically, it is nothing new, daydreaming is one such example, or, for that matter, "discussions" on the "tactics" of Maverick from the latest Top Gun [release], as if people are talking not about purely fictional BS but about serious tactical and operational reality. But it is one thing when some 35+ year old boy discusses Maverick's maneuvers in the latest flick, totally another when an admiral (right!) of the US Navy parades himself as a clown.

Ukraine will determine the terms of any peace deal with Russia, US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told the state-run Voice of America broadcaster on Friday. While others have suggested that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky should cede some territory for peace, Kirby said Washington is preparing for what could be “a prolonged conflict.”... Kirby insisted that Ukraine can fight on, and told Voice of America that “Mr. Zelensky is going to get to determine what victory looks like.” “Of course, we want Ukraine to succeed on the battlefield, and we want them to succeed at the negotiating table, if and when it comes to that,” Kirby continued. “We’re not at that stage right now. But we believe that President Zelensky is the one who gets to determine what victory looks like. “Our job is to make sure that he has the tools available to him to do that in the most efficient, effective way.”

Of course, Mr. Kirby's admiral rank is some kind of accident, because his resume is rather subdued. And one has to wonder why he remained a restricted line officer, not eligible for command at Sea, before going to... PR. Obviously spewing BS came naturally to him and that is why he thinks fantastically and continues to propagate things so "advanced" for real military science and real military professionals, that the issue arises not about his professional adequacy, which is non-existent, but of his mental state, because he introduces a new concept: an utterly defeated power dictating terms of peace. In related news, Clausewitz was proven wrong by Kirby because the classic Clausewitz dictum about war's main objective being "to compel the enemy to do our will" by means of war, a euphemism for defeating the enemy, is, apparently wrong. Mr. Kirby and many US generals are, evidently, convinced about it now. 

Take fantastical thinking by such US military "analysts" as Generals Petraeus or Keane and you will see that Mr. Kirby is not alone. I will omit here the description, done on many occasions by me, of psychiatric reasons for such fantastical thinking, but here is a truly genuine US combat officer who for decades has been consistent in his views, many of which (not all) were correct, speaking about why when meeting with Churchill in Moscow in August 1942 (where Sir Winston went to inform Stalin personally that there will be no Second Front), Stalin noted that "Great Britain is a sea animal, Russia is a land animal."

When things turn sour - Douglas MacGregor
(Or why is it that sober-minded, honest military thinkers hold a much different position than the triumphalist choir?)

Jun 25, 2022

Putin & Russia Are Stronger Than Ever - Colonel Douglas Macgregor

Jun 23, 2022

MacGregor speaks here about what Glantz and House spoke for decades--a complete flipping of WW II history from feet to the head. Many, even in the Pentagon, still cannot grasp the scale and the scope of Soviet operations in WW II and that is why so many in the West toil tirelessly to rewrite the history of WW II in such a way as to arrive at Earl Ziemke's conclusion that the Nazis were defeated on the secondary theaters of operations or on June 6, 1944 with the start of D-Day. But I am ON RECORD for many years, the US Army never fought anything comparable in scale and scope to the present-day SMO. Unless one wants to insist that, not taking anything away from heroism of Allied soldiers or tactical and capability of Allied officers, the Battle of the Bulge eclipses Stalingrad, Kursk or the famous "10 Stalin's Strikes", including the full demolition of the Wehrmacht starting with Operation Bagration. Here is David Eisenhower, the grandson.

The explanation for the consistent failure to forecast or anticipate anything from Russia is easy: it is a combination of arrogance and incompetence, exacerbated by a deep-seated complex of inferiority. That is why this history of the events will be steadily erased from the Western historiography until the world of fantastical history, in which the United States is an omnipotent and omnipresent power "for good" will substitute reality. 

Meanwhile, while Kiev is getting ready to "dictate" terms of peace (a euphemism for the US feeling a coming defeat and, thus, BSing people), Russian forces, who, evidently, "ran out of ammo" and smart munitions, today wiped out three brigades, by means of a massive strike by stand-off weapons, of VSU, namely 65th, 66th motor-rifle brigades and 46th aeromobile brigades (in Russian). Somebody, please explain to BoJo and Kirby that Russia fights "economically" to save as many civilians as possible, but can turn on the pain dial to more than 11 and somebody in the West begins to recognize it. As per the Russian Navy, since the post-WW II period it was, is and will remain a classic Sea Denial force with very limited "power projection" capability--two-three serious (maybe four) LHDs and, maybe, two-three aircraft carriers, not counting Kuznetsov. How they will look like? Who knows. Russia "... goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy. She is the well-wisher to the freedom and independence of all." What a historic irony that John Quincy Adams unwittingly meant Russia of 2022, not just the United States of 1821.

(Posted by smoothiex12 at 12:10 PM 52 Comments)

Saturday, June 25, 2022

On A Lighter Note.

LOL))) I checked, and yep, that's the guy.  

BBC should make a report on him, and a crew of the tank. ????

Posted by smoothiex12 at 8:42 PM 50 Comments

Larry (Johnson) Notes...

... that even the Sky News cannot hide this anymore. 80% losses of VSU formations, well, no Western establishment media outlet is still ready to talk in full about the truth. But Larry gives them (and neocons) a hint:

If you can imagine losing 80% of the 82nd Airborne or 80% of Delta Force, then you can understand the horrible significance of these losses for Ukraine’s ability to field a competent fighting force. Reinforcing depleted units with untrained men is not a solution. Plugging untrained war bodies into formerly elite units does not translate into a force capable of fighting effectively. The art of unit war includes knowing how to maneuver under fire, how to set ambushes, how to establish fields of fires, how to communicate with headquarters and how to clean and maintain weapons in the midst of combat. Ukrainian men press ganged into the Ukrainian Army during the past 10 weeks cannot be trained in such a short period of time to master these skills.

Some die hard neo-cons continue to manifest their ignorance of military affairs by pointing to Russia’s slow progress in taking Severodonetsk as evidence of Russia’s incompetent, weak army. What they fail to understand is that Russia was trying to avoid killing the civilians still inside Severodonetsk, who were being used as human shields by the Ukrainians. Putin and the Russian commanders are placing a higher value on saving civilians rather than unleashing their full military might in order to show the world what they can really do. This is a remarkably mature military strategy.

And here is the issue. While waiting today for an urgent root canal appointment (it turned out to be root canal, not extraction as I initially wanted) I hung around Barnes & Noble and while trying to sip on my medium-rare (I mean, not hot) latte I went for the Air Forces magazine rack

It was the May issue. Good God, people. Never in my life did I come across allegedly "professional" or, as they love to claim, "officially number one authority in the world on aviation", publication filled with so much pure BS (how about their claim about the failure of RuAF EW?), and unsubstantiated claims, at least they admitted that "the ghost of Kiev" was an 'urban legend", that one can immediately conclude that these "professionals" are nothing more than amateurs who never encountered real air war and REAL SEAD operations against a capable air defense. In other words, all they were writing was a feeble attempt at controlling a narrative. Of course, it is all based on their own "understanding" of "serious" air operations plus, of course, Kiev propaganda and "leaks", because no one in Russia would allow these losers anywhere near the operations of the RuAF. 

I wanted to buy this magazine (only $14) but then decided not to waste my hard-earned buck on something which cannot be even used as a reserve toilet paper in the hour of need, which is coming, since the damn thing is glossy and is so full of pseudo-"analytical" BS, that one has to be aware of the possibility of getting penetrated by serious butt-hurt in case of using this publication in the toilet after "the business", if you know what I mean. This brings us to an utter failure in general of even "professional" tech and forces publications in the West and them being reduced to nothing more than military porn equivalents of the glamour magazines such as Vogue or, in the best case, Country Living. Same goes for those numerous "analytical" military porn websites which love to claim to have an understanding of operations, but most of them are nothing more than propaganda. 

In related news, I WILL watch the new Top Gun, once I gather enough spiritual strength to last through it, because the concept of F-14 fighting with Su-57 is downright bizarre. 

And lively "discussions" of all kinds of fanboys and military "experts" from mama's basement on the "tactics" of that is rather hilarious. But then again, I read today the magazine and learned that effectively grounded and suppressed within first 2-3 weeks of the SMO Ukie Air Force managed to mount "a resistance". Yes, by means of flying random sorties one can count on the fingers of one hand and because Russia's EW and ECM "failed". My tooth hurts like hell after root canal today, but at least the nerve is gone, judging by the Air Forces publication, my toothache is nothing compared to Air Forces severe and increasing butt-hurt. Worst of all, one cannot remove the dying nerve from down there and, as I am on record, reality, like gravity, is a bitch and when it bites... I would rather stick to root canal procedures and "Top Gun Maverick". 

Posted by smoothiex12 at 7:35 PM 118 Comments

Friday, June 24, 2022

Alexander's Excellent Review Of Events.

I think it is a very good video by Alexander, so I post it here. 

Ukrainian Resistance Collapsing in Donbass, Economic Crises Wrack Europe, UK's Johnson about to Fall

June 24, 2022

Plus, he knows internal European dynamics much better than me. 
Posted by smoothiex12 at 4:45 PM 179 Comments

Well, Sure...
[Giving up on Germany and Europe is a good thing for Russia]

It is not some funny papers issued by the Wall Street. 

India's intake of Russian crude oil has soared 50-fold since April and, to date, makes up a tenth of the subcontinent's imported oil, the Economic Times reported today, citing a senior government official. Some 40 percent of the total Russian oil imports are going into private refineries, the report noted. Earlier this month, data showed India's imports of Russian crude over the first quarter of this year alone were five times higher than all the Russian crude India imported in 2021.

What do you expect? Of course, between the food and the IOU from some drunk bum, most normal people will chose food--it is real, it is vital for survival and it might be even delicious. IOU? Unless one is on the paper-eating diet. In related news:

Germany is considering expropriating the German section of the Russia-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project, cutting it off from the rest of the pipeline, and using the part on German territory for connecting to LNG supply that will come from Baltic Sea ports, German magazine Der Spiegel reported on Friday. The plan will likely escalate the gas row between Germany and Russia, Der Spiegel comments on the information, for which it didn’t cite sources.

Germany is free to do whatever she deems necessary, it is not going to change anything because the German economy is dying and nothing can prevent it from doing so, especially now that the last iota of the even neutral attitude towards Germany (as a country, not individual Germans) is gone from Russia, and it is all for the better. Germany is the enemy of Russia and it is a very positive development--I repeat it not for the first time--that all illusions about some Russian-German "alliance" are gone. As is true for most of Europe. And this too, is for the better.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 1:18 PM 92 Comments

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Labels: crude, Germany, increase, India, NS2., Russia

Thursday, June 23, 2022

Never Rush To The Conclusions.

I like Sam Chui. He is no BS air traveler and aircraft enthusiast, and with a deservedly huge audience. I am one of his subscribers and love his air travel reporting on all kinds of aircraft around the world. The SMO, however, he covered without leaving out the "official politics", and Sam had to make a video about the fate of Russian commercial aviation. It is not only understandable but good that it was made. But, and here is the problem, ever "prescient" (sarcasm on) aircraft journos (yes, people who write about the industry but are not real industry professionals) and the opinions of the aviation "specialist" Jon Ostrower are quite remarkable. Just listen:

The Darkest Hours of Russian Aviation - How will it Impact Air Travel?

Sam Chui

Ostrower's claims that Russia's aviation was set back by 30 years in one day and especially his quip about maps made me laugh, no, I mean it. This is the expertise one gets when, despite the fact of having a license for piloting of small aircraft one has this as a background. This is his profile from Linkedin.

So, the guy has a background in... Political Communications, that is to say that he has no education at all [in the pertinent field], and writing for WSJ or CNN automatically disqualifies him from writing anything Russia-related because he would write some BS. He did, not wrote, but spoke but this is how idiotic narratives get spread around the US. Mind you, I, unlike Ostrower, have a graduate engineering degree and for long years ran the laboratory of the Tier-1 subcontractor of Boeing and Bombardier, among others, and, for all intents and purposes, was an insider of the industry and especially its Quality Management requirements and a whole lot of things related to safely flying commercial aircraft, such as Boeing-737-800 among many. In other worlds, my day would start with Boeing and Bombardier manuals and other production documents and would end with knowing every single in and out of both ASTM Vol 15.03 (testing reqs for Aerospace Industry), not to mention the fact that I worked with many former Boeing employees and even former naval aviators. So, allow me to comment now. 

As you all know, I am on record that Western, in general, and American, in particular, "knowledge" of Russia is practically non-existent, and that is true across the whole spectrum of Russia's activities ranging from economy, to military, to education, to science and R&D and Ostrower is an exhibit A of such ignorance, despite his many, namely media, titles. I am not saying that Russia doesn't have problems, she surely does, but Ostrower, obviously, fails, as is it is normal for all kinds of Western "experts", to grasp the nature of the problem they try to comment on. 

1. His claim that Russia was set back 30 years in one day in terms of commercial aviation is preposterous and betrays in him a typical Western media hack with zero engineering background. And here is why. 
2. a) Historic Russia, USSR and modern-day Russia was always a powerhouse in civilian aviation. One of the first things young "reformers" (in the 1990s, imported from the West] were tasked with was the destruction of the remnants of the Soviet commercial aerospace industry and they almost succeeded by the end of 1990s. But not quite. And while the combined West was "celebrating" its commercial success, as always it did it prematurely, and we see it today. Ostrower, evidently, has difficulty understanding that the country which is "completely out of its own resources" produces in large serial batches state-of-the-art combat aircraft such as SU-35C or SU-57 among many others, and which has a massive designer school in commercial aviation, including a huge contribution to the design of Boeing commercial aircraft such as the B-787, among others, and will be able to manufacture commercial aircraft on her own. 
3. b) Unlike the case in 2010, today Russia has a fully operational and large industry of composite materials and she has not only venerable but still very much good high bypass turbofans such as PS-90A (Russian President doesn't mind flying it), but already has PD-14, which is in serial production. In general, Ostrower should keep himself abreast on Russia's commercial aviation development just by visiting the RosTec site and by reading news which preceded Sam's video.    
4. c) Obviously, the West introduced all possible sanctions but, that is for the better because now both SSJ New and MC-21 will become fully russified. But as a stop-gap measure (Russians are damn good at it) is precisely where Russia's older but still excellent aircraft come in. 

The impact of international sanctions has raised many questions about how Russia can keep its planes in the air. Boeing and Airbus have both suspended support for aircraft operated by Russian airlines, including halting the provision of new parts, maintenance, and technical support services.  This has prompted Russia to consider reviving domestic aircraft programs, particularly the Tupolev Tu-214 and the Ilyushin Il-96. At the end of March 2022, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov announced that Kazan-based aerospace manufacturer Kazan Aircraft Production Association (KAPO) is expected to produce 10 Tu-214s per year.  Later, on April 1, 2022, Andrei Yelchaninov, a member of the Board of the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia, revealed Russia could set up an additional aircraft manufacturing center in Kazan, the capital city of the Republic of Tatarstan, to avoid a shortage of spare parts as it continues to feel the effects of international sanctions amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  The new facility, which could launch operations in 2023, is expected to produce parts for various types of aircraft but will mainly focus on the supply of spare parts for domestically made planes, such as the Tupolev Tu-214 and the Ilyushin Il-76. 

This was in April, by now (AFAIK) the number was revised to 20 TU-214s a year and this is an excellent plane which uses PS-90As and Russian avionics. The only thing which would be considered "backward" in it is the fact that it still uses a third crew member--an engineer. But I am sure after Boeing-737 Max which is effectively a 60 year old design freak and tends to kill people due to being "designed by clowns who in turn are supervised by monkeys", is a small price top pay for safety. How's that "automation" worked out for 350+ dead people, Mr. Ostrower? 

Here is TU-214 flight in 2014 from Irkutsk to Moscow. Passengers love this plane, actually. 

It is very comfortable and is a rough equivalent of the B-757. 

2. The issue of "maps" is altogether risible, since Ostrower, obviously, never heard of both Russia's GLONASS and Russia's map industry being one of the best in the world, ranging from nautical to air charts. Especially now, when Russian aircraft do not fly to Europe or North America. But this simple fact is not known to Ostrower. 
3. Per the park of foreign aircraft which Russia retained due to sanctions, and these are anything from A-320neo and A-321 to B-737-800 and B-777s, as Russia's engineers are on record--there will be very little problem with producing spare parts for them domestically. Again, the nation which produces in the aerospace field what Russia produces will have little trouble servicing whatever commercial aircraft requires it. And that brings us to the final point. 
4. For many in the West, including Mr. Ostrower, the concept of the country being self-sufficient in practically anything is absolutely inconceivable since all these media figures, especially of Ostrower's age (and he is a young fellow), are the product of the Western globalist "education" (in reality dumbing down) which excludes completely even the fleeting grasp of the concept of self-sustainability, if not almost full autarky. Not surprising for an American "expert" with degrees in nothing, and who grew up in the country where everything ranging from the TV sets and smart phones to washing machines and computers is produced elsewhere, but not the US, such a concept could spark a serious cognitive dissonance. Especially nowadays, when this country "with an economy smaller than that of Netherlands" or a "gas station masquerading as a country" (as per John McCain) is basically crushing the combined West economically and militarily. 

It is a blessing that Russia finally is cutting all ties to the Western commercial aircraft industry and is fully returning to its very rich and highly regarded commercial aerospace school of design and manufacturing, and is being pressed into self-sustainability. The nation already shows not only an incredible resilience but a very bright future, not the darkest one prognosticated by the West's soothsayers. But this is beyond Mr. Ostrower's "expertise", and Sam's excellent tribute to the AN-225 Mria should not eclipse the fact that this magnificent airplane is not and never was Ukrainian but a Soviet one. I am sure Russia will restore it and will make a museum out of it. But it is very instructive, how circumstances allowed to revive an excellent plane which was almost removed from broad service due to illusions of Russia-West "cooperation", but now came back, and it is an excellent machine which will complement the fleet of SSJ-100s (and New) and MC-21 in coming years. 

Tupolev Tu-214 Short Takeoff from Larnaca Intl | Transaero Airlines | Larnaca Plane Spotting Series

Russian power! Watch a Tupolev Tu-214, a state of the art russian new generation jetliner, taxi down taxiway C, recieve takeoff clearance, line up and take off from Larnaca's runway 22 in a short distance, almost like in a shortfield takeoff! All these in crystal clear astonishing 1080p HD!

It is take-off time. BTW, beautiful plane.

UPDATE: I noticed there are a few fanboys (suddenly)  of the Luftwaffe's fairy tales (and "statistics"), and, of course, "Top Gun is a documentary" types, materializing on a discussion board who bought most of the BS published in the Western "historiography" about the Eastern Front. So, in order to not respond to all those "air warfare" experts, here is Von Hardesty and Grinberg from their, now classic (book):

But in order to be more substantive here are some excerpts:

More:

I will omit here Russian archive sources which (those who want can easily find them in Russian) disclose a colossal scale of the air operations on the Eastern Front, as well as completely discredit German WW II statistics, correctly at that. But that is precisely the "statistics", much of it simply made up by Germans (e.g. verification of kills), which many of Nazi sympathizers love to use, obviously due to their military illiteracy. I am not talking about other revisionist sources which still cannot resign themselves to the fact that Axis was demolished by those Rooskies and it was the main point of WW II. So, in conclusion from Glantz and House seminal work When Titans Clashed:

Air ace Kozhedub

Pay attention to date--mid-1944. So, my advice for those "experts"--before issuing your opinions, especially based on German "sources", learn the goddamn subject and give a simple cognizance to the fact that for 75 years the combined West was rewriting the history of WW II and succeeded at that. Why it is so, read my first book--it explains in detail why. Read my lips: cream of the cream, best of the best, as well as a bulk of Luftwaffe's assets had been wiped out on the Eastern Front by mid-1944. For all air warfare "experts" the answer could be easily found in 1950-1953 in Korea and actions of the 64th Air Corps under the command of three times Hero of the Soviet Union Ivan Kozhedub. This is not statistics USAF likes to talk about. I repeat, in other words: learn the subject. Those who it is addressed to know who they are.

Posted by smoothiex12 at 10:11 PM 126 Comments

Larry Johnson On WW II...

Excellent and extremely important point--we are living out the last days of the world whose crucible was World War Two.  

I would be willing to lay down a heavy bet in Las Vegas that 95% of Americans have no idea what role Russia played in defeating the Germans. The truth is this–without Russia crushing the Germans on the Eastern front, Europe and the UK would be speaking German, or required to learn it in school. One of the reasons, not the only one, is how the most popular documentary series’ tell the story of the Great War. The narratives focus primarily on what the United States did with some credit given to the Brits for having a stiff upper lip and Churchill. The Russians generally are presented as bit players who somehow survived the slaughter at Stalingrad. The vast majority of Americans have no idea that Russia lost more soldiers in the Battle of Stalingrad than the United States lost in the entire war in both the European, North African and Pacific theaters. Ponder that for a minute.

Read the whole thing at Larry's blog.  Public should be educated on real events which gave birth to the world which is ending only now and public opinion is important in shaping what is coming.

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