Larry C. Johnson
SONAR
WITH SPECIAL SELECT COMMENTS FROM ORIGINAL THREAD
Regardless of the issue, the title of this piece is a good rule of thumb to apply when you are reading “breaking news.” I am not talking about your conventional “car runs over pedestrian” or “dog licks own testicles story.” I am talking about reports like today’s news that there are US boots on the ground in Ukraine:
American military personnel are now in Ukraine to help keep track of the billions of dollars’ worth of weapons and equipment the United States has sent since the start of the Russian invasion, a senior U.S. defense official and senior U.S. military official said.
Led by Brig. Gen. Garrick Harmon, the U.S. defense attaché to Ukraine, the inspections have already begun with the help of the Office of Defense Cooperation personnel who have returned to the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine, the officials said.
If the U.S. was serious about ensuring the weapons paid for by U.S. taxpayers actually wound up in the hands of Ukrainian soldiers, it would have been very easy to put in an audit system and verify periodically that there was no chicanery going on. How should you do this? Here is one possibility–When every plane touches down and cargo is off-loaded the Ukrainians should have been required to identify and record in a joint database where those items would be stored and who would be receiving them ultimately. You demand that records be kept detailing when, where and to whom those weapons/supplies are delivered. Then you conduct periodic audits (one every three weeks) verifying those facts. Apparently, no one on the U.S. side felt the need to do this and the crooked Ukrainians did what they do best–they looted the stockpiles, at least initially.
But we do have a pretty strong hint that the Pentagon realized they had a serious problem by May and made some unusual, quiet moves to address the situation. Let us examine the career of Brigadier General Garrick Harmon, who reportedly is helping the Ukrainians keep track of the U.S. largesse.
Start | End | Duty Assignment |
---|---|---|
Jul 22 | Present | Senior Defense Official and Defense Attaché, United States Defense Attaché Office, Ukraine |
May 21 | May 22 | Commanding General, United States Army Security Assistance Command, Redstone Arsenal, Alabama |
Aug 20 | Apr 21 | Special Assistant to the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, United States Army, Washington, DC |
Oct 18 | Aug 20 | Senior Defense Official and Defense Attaché, United States Defense Attaché Office, Russia |
Aug 17 | Oct 18 | Deputy Director, Strategy, Plans and Policy, Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, United States Army, Washington, DC |
Normally, someone like General Harmon would do a two year tour as the Commanding General of the United States Army Security Assistance Command at the Redstone Arsenal in Alabama. He was reassigned after only one year. Why? Take a look at his bio and previous assignments. He spent almost two years in Moscow as the U.S. Defense Attache. According to his bio he majored in Russian studies at West Point and speaks Russian. But little attention was paid to his arrival in Kiev in late July. Only now is his name being bandied about. Why?
For starters, General Harmon speaks Russian and should be able to communicate easily with his Ukrainian counterparts (who also speak Russian). Second, he should some relevant knowledge about the Russian Generals that are directing the campaign in Ukraine. That could be helpful to Ukrainian military planners. Most civilians may assume that Generals populate Defense Attache slots around the world. Not so. Most of those positions are staffed by Lt. Colonels and Colonels. Putting a General in charge is not common.
While it is possible that today’s story about U.S. troops on the ground carrying out audits of U.S. military supplies delivered to Ukraine is genuine, I have my doubts. Soldiers ostensibly detailed to carry out audits could in fact be diverted to help man M777 batteries, HIMARS rocket launchers, HARM missile launchers or operate combat drones. Declaring the purpose as “audit” could just be a thin form of cover to avoid admitting that the U.S. has troops in combat.
One possibility for the timing is to provide an explanation for U.S. casualties from recent Russian attacks that have not been publicized. One of the articles describing General Harmon’s inspection mission indicated that the U.S. troops were not being sent to the front lines and therefore are safe. I call bullshit. There is no safe place in Ukraine that Russia cannot hit with one of its cruise missiles. NATO troops learned this the hard way last March with the devastating hypersonic missile attack on Yavoriv.
Inspecting U.S. supplied weapons means that the auditor either is visiting a warehouse (which the Russian are hitting with regularity) or going to where those weapons are deployed, which means they are vulnerable to Russian fires.
If General Harmon’s primary mission is auditing the disposition of U.S. weapons supplied to Ukraine, this is a tacit admission that the original CBS story on diverted weapons was accurate and the United States is trying to get the worms back into the can. But if that is the case, why wait more than three months to let the press know that the United States was acting to prevent corruption? Why?
READER INTERACTIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCELarry C. Johnson is a former CIA analyst and geopolitical military expert.
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Mad Dog says
Me thinks you’ve nailed it once again. He’s got the right ribbons and prior assignments to support your projections and hypothesis.
Good on ya mate.
Dog
Rogue says
Staff officer… and West Point… need I say more.
How is it that on the ships I was stationed on, we kept track of every single weapon, down to individual .45 bullets! And now we lose $billions in Afghanistan and Ukraine. They’ve made a mockery of us who served before, and I highly resent it.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
You served during Ye Olde Colde War, I take it? That was back when the US navy was a serious fighting force and not a boondoggle? So I’d say you answered your own question.
William Verick says
This is an old story. During the Chinese Civil War, the Communists used to say that America was their armorer and that Chiang Kaishek was their quartermaster.
CharlieCanberra says
True. General Vo Nuygen Giap and the Viet Minh received 105mm Howitzers made in the US and captured by the Chines in Korea or from the Chinese Nationalists. The French were a might pissed off when they found out the Viets artillery was a lot newer than theirs. The French were using left overs from WW2 that had seen some serious use in that war. Also during the Vietnam War (or as the Vietnamese refer to it – The American War) you could buy anything (and I mean anything) on the black market. There are dozens of stories of Australian and New Zealand soldiers becoming the proud owners of an M-48 tank, a Huey Helicopter, and anything else they could swap for a pair of Australian Boots or better yet a Slouch Hat, or even a case of Australian beer. EVERYTHING that the US sent to Vietnam was automatically written off…….. and thus fair game. For example the unit I was in had a load of .50 Cal, .30 Cal plus An-PRC-25 and 547 Radio Sets above our establishment when we returned from Vietnam. Probably half had come from write of from damaged vehicles. The rest – “acquired”. Shit hit the fan when the Government auditors found out.
the blame-e says
Yeah. The “shit really hit the fan when the Government auditors found out.” [heavy sarcasm]
The “shit really hit the fan . . . .” More like: “I’m shocked! Shocked to find gambling going on in this casino!”
k. talaat says
The perfumed princes of the Pentagone lost over $2 Trillion, announced on 9/10 or have we forgotten.
The weapons have been sold to for starters, the Chechens. There is a video on Rumble with the Chechens troops ready to mobilize in a parade ground and you can clearly see that the Javelins are standard issue. Now, some could have been captured, but for sure some have been sold.
cofer says
When can start we calling this WWIII?
Humml says
Since June 20, 1948 …
(The currency reform of 1948 came into effect on June 20, 1948 in the trizone, Germany’s three western occupation zones. From June 21, 1948, the German mark (“DM,” also “D-Mark”) was the sole legal tender there.)
rob says
Good answer . Personally I would date it a bit earlier , but the currency reform is a prime candidate .
Incidentally , the US had printed the new notes some time before . However , we (i.e. the Brits) were not on board so this had to be kept secret .
Séamus Ó Néill says
You can start calling it “the last war the US ever fought, and lost again…..”
the blame-e says
Never.
The fully owned US mainstream media will never allow it. The US could invade Russia, be wiped out to the last freak flagger, and we would never know about it.
I believe General Harmon’s primary mission to the Ukraine is to collect dead American bodies and return them secretly to unmarked graves here at “home.” Why? I have no idea anymore. Somebody in our fully dysfunctional government must have gotten the idea that the graves of dead American soldiers found in the Ukraine might be bad PR. I just don’t get it. Easier to hide the graves of dead American soldiers on US soil? The Government doesn’t give a shit about us.
“Thank you for your service.” [heavy sarcasm]
Rogue says
That General was groomed. Originally artillery, given only 3 duty stations as an artillery JO, he likely became a pro staff officer as an O-3. A couple stints at G-3/5/7 and NATO. He’s a spy in uniform.
Indian says
Larry: They waited 3 months only because the press found out about it. If it weren’t for the CBS news story, this General wouldn’t have been sent to Ukraine at all, and the loot of US weapons would have continued.
the blame-e says
CBS is part of the fully captured US mainstream media. Something else is going on.
Aria says
Larry, once again you touch it with a needle. Unlike most of us, however, you have experience with the Federal bureaucracy. The rest of us can only intuit.
Question 1: What is the primary motivation for the release of information at this level? Is it not CYA?
Question 2: What is the primary motivation for the release of information in the immediate prelude to a shift in power at the federal level, especially when then information does not have the power to effect that shift? Is it not also CYA?
Question 3: Why does the military feel the need to account for military aid when the U.S. Senate specifically chose to forgo the appointment of an inspector general to keep track of that aid? Is it not also CYA?
So, the military anticipates blowback from the pending Republican oversight of the corruption associated with the Congress’ Ukrainian aid, yes? And they are attempting to shift the blame to the other players, perhaps the civilian intelligence agencies?
Larry Johnson says
1. Yes, I think it is some form of CYA.
2. Ditto.
3. Military will be able to testify that they took necessary steps to monitor. They may throw Biden under the bus for preventing the appointment of an IG.
Aria says
Please post your specific CYA theory when you close the thread. You obviously have something interesting in mind.
Rightiswrong says
I take it that CYA is Cover Your As* in US military speak.
We used ABC, Always Be Covered. I’ve been doing that ever since I left the military back in 87.
If they can drill that into a 17 y\o recruit, why can’t our leaders learn this shite?
Maximus says
I think its obvious – Mission creep. Just like Vietnam? And we know how that turned out. Stupid is as stupid does.
Séamus Ó Néill says
Mission-creep implies a long term commitment, I don’t think “Ukraine” will exist this time next year. The US may try to mire Russia in a long drawn out terrorist campaign but I believe the Russians are far too intelligent for that trap…. and judging by the state of things, both financially and politically in the US, I’d imagine that they will have more pressing things to concern themselves with.
the blame-e says
Agree. These weapons seem to be turning up in our new NATO partner’s countries, hence all along the newly expanded borders, closer to Russia.
Plausible Deniability. “But we didn’t put those weapons along your borders. It was those pesky Ukrainians.”
the blame-e says
“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.” — Albert Einstein.
just saying says
I was about to write the same thing. We even have some attempts at modern version of Gulf of Tonkin incident.
Elial says
What I think we see is lack of a coherence, oscillating rapidly between madman strategy and “we are not directly involved” narrative. Neither is accurate. More likely it is nefarious and conniving thinking with bumblingly incompetent execution.
Adam Westmoreland says
What’s too say he’s not already KIA?
Eric Newhill says
Same as when a high profile person gets charged with crimes. The questions should not be what did s/he do? and how were they caught?, but why are they being prosecuted? and why now?
I suspect that there is a fear the republicans are going to come after the Biden admin on this issue should the Rs gain the house and senate – of which I am skeptical due to election fraud, but maybe will be allowed to happen as an off-ramp to Ukraine and other hideously destructive and unsustainable policies the “progressive” democrats have inflicted on us.
Oddo says
There are a few variants in play here. One is the Syrian model that USA may be hoping to “implement” in western Ukraine – Russians and Americans have the Syrian experience in de-escalation and controlling portions of the same country without getting into each other’s hair. I think Russia actually may not mind this if America can stick to control of Lviv etc. but not go to Odessa. I would not be surprised if Shoigu and Austin discussed such a scenario in their last call under the “cover” of nuclear de-escalation talks, which was what the public was fed as being the main topic of the call.
Another possibility is that the 1-star general is a forward contingent preparing the ground for many more “coalition of the willing” forces to enter Ukraine and prevent Russia from taking Odessa. This would be a foolish move but judging by how EU/USA have been run in the last few years, can anyone say it is impossible?
Finally, it could be a “flexing our muscle” story for the American public pre-elections. It makes the administration look like they are doing something about where our tax moneys are going and at the same time it is putting the Russians on notice (not that they care, they know NATO forces would be breakfast in Ukraine for the Russians but average American-Joe doesn’t know that).
The 4th possibility – that this contingent is actually doing what they are advertised to be doing (arms control) – we all know that is not true. If our government was so transparent and so diligent about where all our money was spent, well, we would be in a much better place now…
the blame-e says
I’ve been wondering the same thing.
Why would the Russians reinstate grain deal shipments when, after the Sebastopol attack, they had the perfect excuse to starve the west to death?
Has the food crisis gone away?
Same thing with Russian crude oil. The Russians were exporting sanctioned crude oil to Saudia Arabia, who then turned it around, relabeled it as Saudi oil, and re-exported it to the United States.
Has the energy crisis gone away?
Something else is going on we just don’t know about.
repsinec says
Good points. Re question 1, it seems like the West can provoke Russia and stomp all over it’s red lines in total impunity, and all Russia does is to angrily denounce them and then let it pass. Everyone has been saying “Russia will soon turn up the pain dial” for months now but the West is getting away with murder (literally) and Russia just takes it on the chin. This is not serious.
Biswapriya Purkayastha says
One explanation: to provide a casus belli for an open intervention when these troops get denazified by Russia.
Another: Harmon has already been denazified, and he’s being named so that it can be claimed those Evil RuZZians murdered him when he was only grunt to keep the freedom loving democratic west safe from MANPADS in the hands of terrorists.
Robert Jones says
Well why did Pelosi go to Taiwan when she did?
Maybe they are all just crazy
Dister says
That is a great question, and they are not crazy. As always, follow the money.
Robert Jones says
Well I know..but you got to follow “the votes” too.. as Cuba found out to its cost. Ah “The Excited States of America”… gotta love it.
cofer says
Pelosy went to Taiwan at the service of her Chinese masters. She provided them with the exuse to flex their muscles, make some threats, draw red lines and make the US so called leadership try to state their unformed position(s).
Michael Murry says
The U.S. military — the largest money-laundering scam in American (if not world) history — has never, ever, not even one time successfully run an audit of itself. So sending a U.S. military officer to ostensibly run an audit of another corrupt government’s inept military reeks of pompous pretension beyond measure. Manufactured Mendacity and Managed Mystification on the grandest of scales.
the blame-e says
Still waiting on that audit of all that gold that’s supposed to be in Fort Knox.
Joe says
Creeping normalcy.. subconsciously forming a narrative in the collective psyche …and….mission creep as U.S boots on the ground near Ukrainian military installations accidentally unavoidably and tragically get turned inside out by Russian munitions….in a warzone….oh why oh why did this happen? Crocodile tears in front of the green screen as the Nation is worked into a self righteous frenzy as the demented predator in chief calls for WAR
Brian O. says
Has the US ever been opposed to giving weapons to unsavory characters? We gave them to drug gangs in Mexico. We gave them to a few distinctly different sets of terrorist/freedom fighter in Iran, Syria, Iraq, The horn of Africa nations, Guaido’s Venezuela, South Vietnam, Central America, South America, Georgia, etc. How long is this list really? There are dozens of nations and hundreds of special interest groups that get weapons all the time.
Didn’t we recently give a large amount of Russian weapons to Ukrainian troops?
Seems like policy rather than an accident.
Bob In Portland says
If ISIS or Boko Haram suddenly seem to be bringing the heat, then you have a clue as to where the weapons ended up. Or in Syria or Yemen. Or Mindanao. Someone somewhere wants to buy some weapons.
emmac says
Or Mozambique because the rebels there seem to have some fine equipment.
Paulo Guerra says
Everything that has come out of the White House in recent weeks is closely linked to the elections! Just this! Especially in the usual newspapers! In Europe everyone has been talking for months about the black market full of American weapons to Ukraine! Finland has just proved it! And today no one knows the level of corruption in Ukraine better than the US! Which also only proves that more than the attempt to bleed Russia to try a regime change in Moscow, the main objective of the conflict was always to sanction Russia and disconnect the EU from Russian gas! Namely sabotaging Nord Stream II and the German economy and thus taking the EU economy hostage! The US has long known that the conflict in Ukraine is completely lost.
But what is most astonishing in the midst of all this is the ability to lie and the brazenness of Western political leadership today. And you will excuse me here but even more in the Anglo-Saxon world, US and UK! Biden was a lifelong corrupt lobbyist with a low media profile. But look at BoJo. Deceiving and lying to the English for decades. In other words, for all the jobs and public positions he went through. In the media, in the EU, as Mayor of London and finally as PM! And the worst thing is that the people continued to vote for him?! It seems that the curriculum of the rulers does not matter at all?! And so, they also never mend! In the previous post when I asked if BoJo had asperger’s I wasn’t kidding. He is certainly hyperactive and in Europe there are many cases where the drug Rivotril for a long time did even more harm. Boris is typically a run-down kid with no sense of responsibility.
Only that will allow you to lie continuously and not feel remorse to the point that you can no longer distinguish good from bad conduct! How is it possible to this day BoJo still think he has the conditions to be elected PM again? And the media continue to cover it? 30 years ago he disappeared from public life and no one ever knew about his life again. The family doesn’t even talk to him anymore! This is a fact! Yet there are still Englishmen willing to vote again for the greatest crook in the history of politics in England! Which is the only thing that scares more than having cheating rulers. Having voters who think it’s normal to have cheating rulers. That as a PM I didn’t even know that England depended a lot on gas and oil from Russia! How could the West not be in frank decline….
julianmacfarlane says
Damn — that was good analysis! A question for me has always been “what about NATO casualties?” It is pretty clear that NATO has large numbers of people on the ground manning NATO weapons. It is also clear that they are losing a lot of people. Of course, it is unlikely that a dead NATO soldier has NATO ID tags! The Brits surely lost some personnel in the recent strikes on Ochakiv. But you aren’t going to here about it. NATO has a big problem. Having entered the war with boots on the ground, how do they hide the fact? Over at MoA, B. has written an article about the US bruiting Russian intentions for nuclear war — again. If NATO troops can be shown to be active in the Ukraine that must regarded as casus belli and the Russians would be justified in taking out a few Polish bases. So the US trashtalks like a schoolyard bully — and takes steps to hide NATO casualties.
the blame-e says
There are videos of Americans, wearing Ukrainian uniforms, fighting in Ukraine. Casually going about their business.
Mercenaries? “Your mission, if you choose to accept it . . . . If you are captured or killed your country will disavow you were ever there.”
General Harmon’s primary mission is to bring dead Americans “home.” There’s just too many of them at this point.
Michael Droy says
Yes of course the purpose of mentioning Americans in Ukraine is to explain away dead ones.
US domestic politics rules – just think how a negative story of dead US mercs/recently discharged would play before Nov 8th.
The real news here is that pre-election focus groups are showing no support for US policies in Ukraine – hence the other leak Larry wrote about recently about Biden shouting at Zelensky. Even that is only news to his Democrat handlers – most people knew Ukraine had no support months ago.
the blame-e says
Biden yelled at Zelensky happened back in June, and is only coming out now?
More smoke screens and propaganda covering for yet another arms shipment, covering for the 101ST Airborne being stationed near the Ukrainian border, covering for the 82ND Airborne showing up in Kiev, covering up for a Pentagon official admission of there being Boots on the Ground in the Ukraine, covering up for this Brig. Gen. Garrick Harmon’s so-called mission to collect dead Americans and bring them “home.”
The story about Biden yelling at Zelensky was nothing but a cover-up for Mission Creep. Same thing happened in Viet Nam.
ISL says
Larry, you too caught a whiff… Notably, the weapons and air defense systems being sent have more and more need for trained (US) operatives. Slouching into a direct confrontation on Russia’s doorstep. What could go wrong as more and more replacements are needed to be sent? At some point, I do think logistical centers outside Ukraine will get hit.