• Strategic retreat or disaster? The Kherson withdrawal by various observers
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DIVERSE OPINIONS
OPEDS
There’s No Denying That The Partial Pullback From Kherson Has Uncomfortable Political Optics
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No matter how one tries to spin it, a setback is still a setback and shouldn’t ever be covered up with conspiracy theories like many in the Alt-Media Community are prone to do. Such developments must be directly addressed, albeit properly presented in the grand strategic context of the New Cold War.
The Russian Ministry of Defense’s decision to partially pull back their troops from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the newly reunified region of Kherson undeniably carried with it very uncomfortable political optics. After all, that former part of Ukraine recently voted to join the Russian Federation, yet now its new homeland’s military forces were compelled to pull out of several thousand square kilometers that Moscow officially regards as its own.
Nevertheless, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed that the Kherson Region’s constitutional status hasn’t changed, thus meaning that it still remains an official part of Russia despite the fact that Moscow lost control over some of its land. This creates the regrettable situation wherein that newly restored world power’s territory is temporarily occupied by foreign forces fully backed by NATO, whose raison d'être has always been anti-Russian.
The preceding observation is fully factual and shouldn’t be sugarcoated with ridiculous “5D chess” conspiracy theories spewed by those in the Alt-Media Community (AMC) who claim to support Russia. Nobody who sincerely stands in solidarity with the Global Revolutionary Movement’s (GRM) de facto leader should deny this objective reality. Rather, they should place this setback in its appropriate context prior to calmly explaining it to their audience so that they can better understand it all.
There was no way that the Russian Armed Forces could retain control of the right bank of Kherson Region with Kiev’s Damocles’ sword of a terrorist attack against the nearby Kakhovka Dam hanging over their heads. That being the case, the highest priority was understandably to preserve the lives of this newly reunified region’s people and the military forces tasked with protecting them. Accordingly, the former began evacuating last month while the latter just completed their corresponding pullback.
Keeping in mind what Peskov recently confirmed, nobody should doubt the Kremlin’s political commitment to liberating Kherson Region sometime in the future even if it currently lacks the military means to do so and might thus not be able to accomplish this objective for the foreseeable future. Those who predict that Russia will launch a large-scale counteroffensive there over the winter once the ground freezes are likely just indulging in wishful thinking since Kiev will certainly fortify the region.
Furthermore, its adversaries are much better equipped than they were at the start of the special operation eight months ago and after receiving comprehensive strategic support from their Western patrons. The prior predictions about a similar such supposedly impending large-scale counteroffensive in Kharkov Region following Russia’s related pullback two months ago also failed to unfold for precisely the same reason. The military fact is that Russia is now fighting a defensive conflict, not an offensive one.
That’s not necessarily a negative development though since “Russia Will Still Strategically Win Even In The Scenario Of A Military Stalemate In Ukraine”, thus meaning that all it has to do is retain the existing Line of Control (LOC) or at least as much of it as is realistically possible under the circumstances. Those aforesaid circumstances refer to Kiev’s growing military strength as a result of NATO’s comprehensive strategic support, which has turned its troops into forces to be reckoned with.
To be clear, had it not been for that selfsame support, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (UAF) would have collapsed long ago. This means that they’re presently just a Ukrainian-fronted but fully NATO-backed fighting force, hence why it’s misleading to even refer to them as “Ukrainian” since the essence thereof is completely Western at this point. Upon accepting this description as accurate, it can then be concluded that NATO is the one de facto militarily occupying part of Kherson Region, not the “UAF”.
This comparatively cushions the political blow from the latest military development in Russia’s special operation since it’s understandable that Moscow would temporarily experience a serious setback in the face of fighting a coalition of over two dozen countries that have coalesced into the “UAF”. The hitherto false framing of this conflict as supposedly only being between Russia and Ukraine resulted in the political blow to Moscow misleadingly appearing much more powerful than it actually was.
That said, a setback is still a setback and shouldn’t ever be covered up with conspiracy theories like many in the AMC are prone to do. Such developments must be directly addressed, albeit properly presented in the grand strategic context of the New Cold War. Remembering that Russia only has to reach a military stalemate in Ukraine in order to strategically win, the doom-and-gloom scenarios that some have recently embraced due to perceived desperation become discredited.
As the de facto leader of the GRM, Russia’s newfound role in the world is to accelerate the global systemic transition to multipolarity, to which end simply ensuring its geostrategic survival in spite of politically uncomfortable setbacks like the latest one in Kherson Region is all that’s required. This is because that outcome keeps overarching multipolar trends on track, which will in turn result in achieving this grand strategic goal with time due to the rise of China, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye.
Removing Russia from that geopolitical equation would immediately derail everyone else’s rise, after which a dark period of unipolarity would once again descend on the world for the indefinite future, one that in all likelihood might ultimately end up being irreversible. If Russia calculated that it’s better to temporarily leave part of Kherson Region while still retaining the latter’s constitutional status as a constituent part of the country, then it did so for the purpose of ensuring Russia’s long-term survival.
Anyone can argue over whether it was avoidable had different decisions been made in the past, but decisionmakers clearly agreed that this move was necessary in order to prevent much more serious problems in the future had they remained on the right bank of the Dnieper River. Everyone should remember that the goal right now is ensuring Russia’s continued existence, which isn’t under threat in any case despite Western fantasies to the contrary, in order to complete the global systemic transition.
That being the case, the Kremlin appears to have accepted the Kherson Region’s temporary military occupation by NATO as a trade-off for achieving that grand strategic goal. It’ll never rescind its claims to that territory since it’s a constituent subject of the country following the state’s official recognition of September’s referendum, and the constitution explicitly prohibits giving away any Russian land. For the foreseeable future, it’ll thus likely remain occupied just like other disputed territories across the world.
Once again, despite the uncomfortable optics inherent in the aforementioned trade-off, it shouldn’t be forgotten that Russia’s political loss in this particular battle doesn’t mean its strategic loss in the New Cold War. The global systemic transition continues accelerating towards multipolarity exactly as Moscow expected, which thus leads to the zero-sum strategic losses piling up for Washington. So long as one doesn’t lose sight of this view, doom-and-gloom will be averted and morale thus maintained.
Andrew Korybko is a Russo-American geopolitical analyst residing in Moscow.
2. Gonzalo Lira Roundtable #34, with Andrei Martyanov, Brian Berletic
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Streamed Nov. 10, 2022
The Roundtable #34: The Kherson Withdrawal, with Brian Berletic, Andrei Martyanov
The Dive with Jackson Hinkle
RUSSIA WITHDRAWS FROM KHERSON
The Dive with Jackson Hinkle
Nov 10, 2022
Sun Tzu Walks Into a Kherson Bar…
by Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and widely cross-posted
Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town – ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.
The announcement of the Kherson Retreat may have signaled one of the gloomiest days of the Russian Federation since 1991.
Leaving the right bank of the Dnieper to set up a defense line on the left bank may spell out total military sense. General Armageddon himself, since his first day on the job, had hinted this might have been inevitable.
As it stands in the chessboard, Kherson is in the “wrong” side of the Dnieper. All residents of Kherson Oblast – 115,000 people in total – who wanted to be relocated to safer latitudes have been evacuated from the right bank.
General Armageddon knew that was inevitable for several reasons: no mobilization after the initial SMO plans hit the dust; destruction of strategic bridges across the Dnieper – complete with a three-month methodical Ukrainian pounding of bridges, ferries, pontoons and piers; no second bridgehead to the north of Kherson or to the west (towards Odessa or Nikolaev) to conduct an offensive.
And then, the most important reason: massive weaponization coupled with NATO de facto running the war translated into enormous Western superiority in reconnaissance, communications and command and control.
In the end, the Kherson Retreat may be a relatively minor tactical loss. Yet politically, it’s an unmitigated disaster, a devastating embarrassment.
Kherson is a Russian city. Russians have lost – even if temporarily – the capital of a brand new territory attached to the Federation. Russian public opinion will have tremendous problems absorbing the news.
The list of negatives is considerable. Kiev forces secure their flank and may free up forces to go against Donbass. Weaponizing by the collective West gets a major boost. HIMARS can now potentially strike targets in Crimea.
The optics are horrendous. Russia’s image across the Global South is severely tarnished; after all, this move amounts to abandoning Russian territory – while serial Ukrainian war crimes instantly disappear from the major “narrative”.
At a minimum, the Russians a long time ago should have reinforced their major strategic advantage bridgehead on the west side of the Dnieper so that it could hold – short of a widely forecasted Kakhovka Dam flood. And yet the Russians also ignored the dam bombing threat for months. That spells out terrible planning.
Now Russian forces will have to conquer Kherson all over again. And in parallel stabilize the frontlines; draw definitive borders; and then strive to “demilitarize” Ukrainian offensives for good, either via negotiation or carpet bombing.
It’s quite revealing that an array of NATO intel types, from analysts to retired Generals, are suspicious of General Armageddon’s move: they see it as an elaborate trap, or as a French military analyst put it, “a massive deception operation”. Classic Sun Tzu. That has been duly incorporated as the official Ukrainian narrative.
So, to quote Twin Peaks, that American pop culture subversive classic, “the owls are not what they seem”. If that’s the case, General Armageddon would be looking to severely overstretch Ukrainian supply lines; seduce them into exposure; and then engage in a massive turkey shoot.
So it’s either Sun Tzu; or a deal is in the wings, coinciding with the G20 next week in Bali.
The art of the deal
Well, some sort of deal seems to have been struck between Jake Sullivan and Patrushev.
No one really knows the details, even those with access to flamboyant 5th Column informants in Kiev. But yes – the deal seems to include Kherson. Russia would keep Donbass but not advance towards Kharkov and Odessa. And NATO expansion would be definitely frozen. A minimalist deal.
That would explain why Patrushev was able to board a plane to Tehran simultaneous to the announcement of the Kherson Retreat, and take care, quite relaxed, of very important strategic partnership business with Ali Shamkhani, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
The deal may have also been the inbuilt “secret” in Maria Zakharova’s announcement that “we’re ready for negotiations”.
The Russians will leave the Dnieper riverbank in a managed military retreat. That would not be possible without managed military-to-military negotiations.
These back channel negotiations have been going on for weeks. The messenger is Saudi Arabia. The US aim, in the short term, would be towards a sort of Minsk 3 accord – with Istanbul/Riyadh attached.
No one is paying the slightest attention to coke clown Zelensky. Sullivan went to Kiev to present a fait accompli – of sorts.
The Dnieper will be – in thesis – the settled and negotiated frontline.
Kiev would have to swallow a frozen line of contact in Zaporizhye, Donetsk and Lugansk – with Kiev receiving electricity from Zaporozhye, hence cease shelling its infrastructure.
The US would come up with a loan of $50 billion plus part of the confiscated – i.e. stolen – Russian assets to “rebuild” Ukraine. Kiev would receive modern air defense systems.
There’s no doubt Moscow will not go along with any of these provisions.
Note that all this coincides with the outcome of the US elections – where the Dems did not exactly lose.
Meanwhile Russia is accumulating more and more gains in the battle for Bakhmut.
There are no illusions whatsoever in Moscow that this crypto-Minsk 3 would be respected by the “non-agreement capable” Empire.
Jake Sullivan is a 45-year-old lawyer with zero strategic background and “experience” amounting to campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Patrushev can eat him for breakfast, lunch, dinner and late night snack – and vaguely “agree” to anything.
So why are the Americans desperate to offer a deal? Because they may be sensing the next Russian move with the arrival of General Winter should be capable of conclusively winning the war on Moscow’s terms. That would include slamming the Polish border shut via a long arrow move from Belarus downwards. With weaponizing supply lines cut, Kiev’s fate is sealed.
Deal or no deal, General Winter is coming to town – ready to entertain his guest of honor Sun Tzu with so many new dishes at their dinner table.
5. THE DURAN—ALEX CHRISTOFOROU • ALEXANDER MERCOURIS
Kherson, Pavlovka and General Surovikin to bring focus to operation
Nov 12, 2022
Kherson, Pavlovka and General Surovikin to bring focus to operation
The Duran: Episode 1433
6. US TV network CNN gloats on Kherson decision, claims "big defeat" for Russia
Top Russian general announces retreat from key city of Kherson
Nov 10, 2022
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