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S.L. Kanthan
(TGP Screenshot)
Last week, a geopolitical bombshell exploded, and its enormous implications have not been understood by mainstream media and pundits.
Yes, I am referring to Canadian leader Trudeau’s allegation that India had carried out an extraterritorial assassination of a Sikh separatist in Canada earlier this month. This event is a harbinger of profound changes in strategic partnerships among the influential powers of the world. India, which is at the epicenter of this maelstrom, must understand that this diplomatic spat is much more than Canada, Trudeau or Sikh separatism. If we just see one tree at a time, we will never see the forest, so let’s explore the expansive and beguiling geopolitical forest.
Background
Sikhs are people of an ethno-religious group that follows Sikhism, a 500-year-old monotheistic religion that shares some beliefs with Hinduism. Sikhs make up majority of the population in Punjab, a north-eastern state in India. About 10% of Sikhs live outside India, mostly in English speaking countries such as the US, UK, and Australia. As for Canada, it is home to about 800,000 Sikhs, the biggest population of the group outside of India. Punjabi – the language of Sikhs – is also the third most spoken language in Canada. Not surprisingly, Sikhs in Canada have significant political influence.
One of the reasons for the relatively large share of diaspora among Sikhs is separatism. Even when the British rule of India was coming to an end, Sikhs demanded their own state, just like Muslims. In the late 1970s, the demand for their homeland – Khalistan – led to violent insurrections that lasted for a decade. During this time, the Indian government attacked the Sikhs’ holy temple where militants had taken refuge, and killed the separatist leader. As revenge, domestic terrorists killed Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi using two of her Sikh guards. Next year, in 1985, Sikh separatists in Canada blew up an Air India plane flying from Canada, killing 300+ civilians.
While such horrifying events have not occurred since then, and the Khalistan movement is practically non-existent within India, the Modi government has been very concerned about the Sikh diaspora. Some overseas separatists hold “referendums” for Khalistan as publicity stunts. Some separatist leaders have been labeled as terrorists by the Indian government, but countries like Canada have refused to extradite them, creating diplomatic tensions.
India’s version of the CIA is the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), which has been alleged to have taken matters in its own hands when diplomacy fails. For example, one month before the assassination of the Sikh separatist, another one was gunned down in Pakistan.
However, the person who created the international uproar is Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistan separatist and a Canadian citizen who was killed in Canada earlier this year in June.
Protestors of the Khalistan movement demonstrate outside of the Indian High Commission in London (TGP screenshot)
Did the Indian Spy Agency Kill Nijjar?
Trudeau has said that there are “credible allegations” that India was behind the assassination of Nijjar. Immediately after the shocking claim, Canada expelled the top Indian diplomat in Canada – a guy allegedly from the Indian spy agency.
The Indian government’s response has been what can be described as “non-denial denial.” When Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar was in the US and was asked about it during an interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, he glibly answered, “That is not the government policy.”
He could have simply said, “No, we definitely did not kill Nijjar.”
As we will see in this article, it’s likely the Indian government fell into a geopolitical entrapment.
Intriguing Turn of Events
In such an environment, India and Canada should have easily solved the problems regarding dissidents behind closed doors. For example, Canada could have quietly provided intel on the separatists to India. Note that the allies don’t harbor dissidents of each other – for example, the Basque separatists in Spain or the French-Canadian separatists won’t find any support in the US or Europe.
Instead, Canada decided to embarrass India in front of the whole world. Worse and more shocking, the US had played a key role in providing incriminating evidence – i.e., communications of Indian diplomats obtained through surveillance.
The Mockingbird media in the US has also fueling the fire by dropping bomblets of allegations against India. We are learning now that the FBI had also warned Sikhs in the US that they might be targets of extrajudicial killings by India.
The official response of the US government has been certainly muted. (Imagine the uproar if China had killed Uyghur separatists in a Western country). However, the State department has said that the US is deeply concerned by allegations, the investigations must proceed, and that the Modi government should cooperate.
Interestingly, during this diplomatic row, the US ambassador to Pakistan - Donald Blome - visited Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), specifically to Gilgit-Baltistan, a sensitive topic in Indian politics.
American Trap
If the USA were a true friend of India, Americans would have brought Trudeau and Modi together to solve this matter. Thus, what is happening is a deliberate campaign aimed at either Modi or the Indian establishment.
What many people don’t understand is that the Anglo-American Empire is one family. Thus, Canada is not a tiny stand-alone country. Whatever it does or says is based on collective decisions. The Five Eyes countries – US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand – work as one all-seeing eye. Plus, Canada belongs to NATO.
This brings us to the American trap. What could have happened is that one part of the US deep state offered to assist the Indian spy agency to eliminate terrorists living abroad, while another part of the US spy agency recorded the activities and built a dossier, which can now be leveraged. This scenario is becoming more possible when we notice the 180-degree change in the narratives in Western media over the last week.
Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar held talks with US State Secretary Antony Blinken in Washington DC on Thursday @DrSJaishankar/Twitter (TGP screenshot)
Dramatic Change in Tone of Western Media
Just three months ago, the US was fawning over India with platitudes: “As two of the world’s largest democratic economies, the United States and India are indispensable partners in advancing global prosperity and a free, fair, and rules-based economic order.”
Now, a US politician – brother of former Vice President Mike Pence – is accusing India of “state-sponsored violence” on Twitter (X).
India’s democracy has suddenly been recategorized as a “regime” in the Foreign Policy magazine. We all know what happens to “regimes” – they get targeted for regime change.
The Financial Times bemoans that “Modi’s authoritarian streak is becoming harder to ignore.” According to The Economist, “India has muzzled the press, cowed the courts and persecuted minorities.”
The Economist also warns that “India is testing America’s friendship; if the investigation confirms Indian involvement in this crime, India would quickly lose some of the bipartisan support it now enjoys in Washington.”
In the NY Times op-ed, Nicholas Kristof declares: “Modi is a nationalist authoritarian; India has no proof that Nijjar was a terrorist; Western countries should categorically stand with Canada in calling for a fair investigation of the murder and justice for those responsible.”
The Guardian cranked up sensationalism with words like these: “bloody stain that will be hard to wash away” … “Purblind arrogance” … and “Hindu ultra-nationalist agenda.”
How Propaganda War Against India Can Escalate
India must be vigilant and not take America’s geopolitical partnership for granted. American foreign policy doesn’t believe in loyalty; and its propaganda powers are still formidable. Look how the US ran the relentless atrocity propaganda about Uyghurs and Xinjiang in China. The same thing can happen to India.
Replace Uyghurs with Muslims in Kashmir or Sikhs in Punjab or Christians in Manipur or Dalits all over India, one can see how the Western media will have sensational contents for many years.
Just in the last couple of days, Washington Post has published detailed exposes on troll armies in India: “Modi’s BJP party and Hindu nationalists have perfected using social media to spread inflammatory, false & bigoted material on an industrial scale.”
My suspicion – as I wrote seven months ago – is that we are witnessing the start of a long anti-India and anti-Modi hybrid war by the US.
US hybrid war on India
A valuable lesson for India to remember is that the West will never treat India as an equal.
While the US desperately needs India to contain China and divide Asia, the American Empire wouldn’t think twice about containing India itself. Carrots and sticks to keep the partners in place. If Indian policies aren’t 100% aligned with US interests, there will be consequences. Consider how the US and its allies have been waging hybrid wars on India since the beginning of this year. First, there was a BBC documentary that recycled Modi’s involvement in the Hindu-Muslim riots twenty years ago.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes U.S. President Joe Biden upon his arrival at Bharat Mandapam (TGP screenshot)
Then, the American firm Hindenburg made startling claims about accounting fraud and stock manipulations by Indian billionaire Adani. This was swiftly echoed by George Soros, who also asserted that India’s democracy is flawed – his signature warning before color revolutions.
And now we have the geopolitical storm and media war. But why?
What Does the US Want?
So, what is it that the US wants from India but is not getting? Here the possible demands that India faces from the Empire:
- Sanction Russia...and:
- Disrupt BRICS expansion and reject de-dollarization
- Accept US military base to be used against China
- Buy more US weapons
- Liberalize India’s economy more so Wall Street can control Indian banks, stock market, and financial institutions.
India’s Miscalculation
India shouldn’t be overconfident about its relations with the US. As the Foreign Policy magazine writes, “As long as competition with China remains a major focus of U.S. foreign policy, the United States will see India as an essential counterweight.”
However, here’s the catch: US might have concluded that India’s role in containing China is limited. In terms of economy, India will not be able to help the US “friendshore” any meaningful capacity of manufacturing from China, which is 10x larger than India. In terms of military engagement,India is not eager to become Asia’s Ukraine in fighting China.
This photograph provided by the Indian Army, shows Chinese troops dismantling their bunkers at Pangong Tso region, in Ladakh along the India-China border on Monday, Feb.15, 2021 (Indian Army)
Finally, there’s a possibility that the US might seek détente with China once it becomes clear that China cannot be contained. Such a scenario is not far-fetched as it is obvious that the US’ trade wars, tech wars, propaganda wars, and sanctions against China have failed miserably. No wonder that Biden is desperately seeking another summit with China.
Bottom line: India must hedge its bet and prepare itself for a multipolar world where China will stay as a powerful #2 or even become #1.
America’s Spying and Destruction Prowess
The Indian government banned China’s TikTok, WeChat, AliExpress etc., and then allowed the Empire of Spying to dominate India’s marketplace. Will the Five Eyes’ surveillance of Indian diplomats in Canada now open India’s wisdom eye?
Let’s not forget the revelations by Edward Snowden. Every phone call, text message, video chat, email, internet browsing, smartphone app activity etc. are recorded and monitored by US agencies.
Yes, every American hardware and software are capable of spying — even in India. Microsoft, Google, Cisco, Amazon AWS, Facebook, Twitter, WhatsApp, hard drives in computers, Intel chips, and iPhones are all surveillance tools. Tech products from US allies – smartphones from Samsung; 5G infrastructure from Nokia and Ericsson – are also likely to have backdoors for NSA and CIA.
Former U.S. National Security Agency contractor Edward Snowden addresses attendees through video link at the Web Summit technology conference in Lisbon, Monday, Nov. 4, 2019
It gets much worse. As Snowden’s documents reveal, the USA not only spies on every single Japanese but also has a "sleeper program" or a "kill switch" for entire Japan. If the Japanese one day demand sovereignty and ask the US military to leave, the US can destroy not only Japan’s entire digital infrastructure but also Japanese physical infrastructure like dams, power grid, and hospitals.
Moving Forward
India must understand how the US and its Western “allies” (vassals) operate. Whatever Canada is doing is a part of the bigger American strategy. Thus, it’s futile for India to target Trudeau or Canada.
Next, it’s in India’s best interest to snuff out this diplomatic firestorm. Playing tough and prolonging the fracas will only hurt India’s reputation, since Western media and deep state are far more powerful.
Also, it will be a geopolitical suicide to be simultaneously anti-US and anti-China. While a multipolar world is becoming a reality, India needs to map that journey carefully and rationally.
One of the vital considerations is for India to start developing its own technologies. How long will it take India to develop its own Google Pay, Amazon, WhatsApp, 5G, cloud computing and so on? Until then, the US will have the upper hand in any negotiation.
The U.S. can devastate India’s economy with sanctions right now. And the US will do it, if that’s what it takes to subjugate India. Being anti-China is not a guarantee of unconditional American love.
The eventual goal for India should be to attain geopolitical autonomy, and the journey to get there will be riddled with challenges. India’s future depends on prosperity and peace in Asia, Eurasia, and the US -- in that order. Thus, it’s a strategic imperative for India to maintain its positive relations with Russia, solve the border issues with China, and manage the gradual de-risking from the US, the empire of chaos.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCES.L. Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst and writer based out of Bangalore, India.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
S.L. Kanthan is a geopolitical analyst and writer based out of Bangalore, India.
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