THE IRAN ATTACK — WHAT DID THE U.S. KNOW AND WHEN DID IT KNOW IT?

As I wrote in an earlier piece on the lead up to Iran’s drone and missile barrage in Israel on the 14th of April, the Iranians clearly gave advanced warning of their plans to neighbouring states in the Persian Gulf as well as Turkey. U.S. officials vehemently denied that and then insisted that Israel scored an overwhelming victory. Enjoy the smell of political bullshit. It is being piled higher and deeper.

Which brings me to Sy Hersh’s latest piece. It is a head scratcher for sure. Sy writes:

I’ve spent much of my career reporting on the American military’s misdeeds and worse, especially during the Vietnam War, but it’s time now to applaud the brilliance of the Pentagon planning staff and the operational officers who did what America assured Iran’s religious and military leadership it could do: allow Iran to respond to yet another Israeli assassination by flinging more than three hundred drones and missiles toward Israeli targets that as many as possible would be shot out of the sky before hitting ground there. It was a huge gamble, and it paid off.

I don’t know what has happened to my friend. He is being used to put out propaganda. The notion that Iran flung “more than three hundred drones and missiles toward Israeli targets” only to have them down because Lloyd Austin’s Department of Defense orchestrated that outcome through a back channel with a Russian General and the Biden White House knew nothing of it is ridiculous. Sorry. I have to throw the “red” flag. Not on Sy, but on his sources. Sy’s failing in this piece, in my judgment, is that he accepted at face-value what his high-placed source told him.

I am not allowed to name the American senior military officers and advisers who made the unusual faux missile attack happen. But it’s important to say that President Joe Biden, whose foreign policy team was not involved in the process, accepted the high-risk plan and publicly urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose political career and personal freedom depend on keeping the war in Gaza going, and the rest of the Israeli leadership not to respond to Iran. 

The key piece of information missing from Sy’s story is how one Russian General persuaded Iran to “allow” its missiles to be shot down. What does Iran gain from that? Feeding Western propaganda that Iran’s missiles are shit and Israel’s air defense system is second to none? Yeah, I can see the mullahs buying into that (NOT!!!).

Iran did not launch a “faux missile attack.” Iran launched a coordinated drone, cruise missile and ballistic missile attack. The version being fed to Sy is, in my opinion, a cover story to hide what CIA Director Bill Burns did. According to Pepe Escobar, who I presume has some well connected sources in the Persian Gulf nations, Burns met in Oman with an Iranian delegation in the days prior to April 14 and received assurances that Iran was not going to cause mass casualties in Israel. Instead, Iran used the first wave of drones as mere pawns in an elaborate game of military chess. The Iranians fully expected those drones to be shot down. That first wave of attacks provided Iran with some critical intelligence about the disposition and capability of Israel’s Iron Dome system.

The next wave — cruise missiles — arrived within minutes of the drones and provided an additional intel dump about Israel’s air defense system for Iranian analysts. It was the third leg of the attack — the ballistic missiles, which hit three different Israeli military installations. While Israel insists that no significant damage was done, Israel has not allowed any Israeli reporters to go on those facilities and show live video of the “no damage.” Israel had no answer for those missiles. That was the message Iran was sending. Iran can hit Israel with ballistic missiles, after overwhelming its air defense system, and there is nothing Israel can do to stop Iran.

The world now waits and watch to see if Israel will follow through on its vow to retaliate against Iran. Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi reiterated in a 17 April speech in Tehran that if Israel chooses to attack Iran, Iran will launch a more dense, deadly attack in response.

It appears that Russian and Chinese authorities are in regular contact with Iran trying to contain the crisis. At least they understand how this situation could spin out of control and confront the world with a crisis further inflamed by nuclear weapons.

Israel’s top officials continue to insist they will retaliate. We should know if they are serious or not by week’s end.