Empire Forever

US in Libya

The report of USAID activity in Libya, from Tunde Osazua of Black Agenda (Libya) is one reminder among many of the permanency of US regime interference operations-by-NGO of which Harris, and perhaps Trump too, will be a likely standard-bearer. Osazua explores the connection between USAID and the Global Fragility Act by which the US pretends to be helping “fragile” nations that the US itself made fragile in the first place.

“The GFA seeks to create long-term, sustained involvement in “fragile” regions, under the pretext of preventing conflict and promoting stability. This is done by connecting the Department of Defense, the State Department, the Treasury Department, and USAID. But in reality, this sustained involvement is about ensuring that U.S. geopolitical and economic interests are protected. In Libya, this means maintaining control over oil production and thwarting the influence of rival powers like Russia and China…

“As we scrutinize USAID’s role in Libya, it becomes clear that development aid is being weaponized to serve imperial interests. The campaign to shut down AFRICOM and remove U.S. forces from Africa is intimately tied to dismantling the soft power mechanisms, like USAID, that sustain imperialism. The Global Fragility Act is not a path to peace or stability for Libya—it is a tool designed to ensure the continued exploitation of Libya’s resources and the suppression of its people’s right to self-determination”.

US and UK in Sudan

In Sudan, The Canary Reports on one of the latest instances of staggering imperial inhumanity (Sudan). Sudan is being torn apart in a war fuelled by foreign interests in gold, resources, and Red Sea access, with global powers pulling the strings.

“The UAE’s documented military support for the RSF has largely escaped scrutiny, while the UK’s role remains overlooked. Accusations suggest the former Conservative government suppressed criticism of the UAE, with recent reports indicating UK Foreign Office “secret talks” with the RSF, risking the legitimisation of a group responsible for genocide, mass rape, and ethnic cleansing.

“As a key global stakeholder and the penholder for Sudan, the UK has a crucial responsibility to address this crisis. Yet, the current Labour Party government’s silence has enabled the UAE’s abuses to continue unnoticed, undermining the UK’s own human rights commitments.

“Similarly, the US continues to shield the UAE from accountability, recently naming it a major defence partner, thereby allowing unchecked operations in conflict zones. This deepened alliance with the UAE comes at the cost of countless Sudanese lives.

“The US has also worked with the Khartoum establishment to legitimise Israeli influence in the region. This includes supplying militias with surveillance equipment, fueling violence against civilians, undermining ceasefire efforts, and contributing to regional destabilisation”.

France in Western Sahara

And in Morocco, France (Pavan Kulkarni in Popular Resistance - Morocco) Macron has decided on French recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. This contravenes the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU).

“In a ruling earlier that month on October 4, CJEU reiterated that the fisheries and trade agreements between the European Union (EU) and Morocco involving natural resources extracted from Western Sahara were illegal because Morocco has no sovereignty over this territory.

“The judgment requires these illegal agreements to cease within a year. In less than a month, Macron entered France into fresh deals worth USD 10.8 billion, pledging “investments” he claimed would “benefit local populations” in Western Sahara.

“Past international investments in Western Sahara’s resources, such as in the [extraction of] phosphates and fisheries,” have yielded little benefit to the Sahrawi people. The influx of foreign capital only tends to further entrench the occupation by supporting Morocco’s infrastructure and military presence in the region.

Most of the jobs created in the process are handed to Moroccan settlers to incentivize them to stay put in the occupied territory. The remaining jobs are doled out to a few in exchange for their “loyalty and obedience”, while the Sahrawi masses are condemned to live under “poverty, oppression and abuse”, added Babouzeid Lebbihi, President of Collective of Sahrawi Human Rights Defenders (CODESA)”.

France’s official legitimization of Moroccan occupation occurs in the context of the losses it has suffered in Africa after its troops were marched out of its former colonies – Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

“It is no secret that France has come to compensate for its losses” by preying on “my country’s rich natural resources like phosphate, marine fishing, gold, oil discoveries etc,” Babouzeid told Peoples Dispatch. Morocco, he added, is more than welcoming. To insure its illegal occupation, it is keen on internationalizing it, drawing in the participation of Western countries.

And then there’s Trump:

“In December 2020, Trump announced the US recognition of “Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory,” in exchange for Morocco’s normalization of ties with Israel, legitimizing the apartheid settler colonial state’s occupation of Palestine”.

MAGA Foreign Policy

When it is only the Irish economy that gleams in the dark, then dark it must be.

Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine does not, however, signal the end of US support for genocide against Palestine, nor demonstrate any wisdom whatsoever in the matter of Iran’s potential for regional hegemony, nor a determination not to go to war with China.

On the contrary, Iran must be ready for the existential attack to save itself and to save West Asia in general. Nuclear China likewise, together with its nuclear-powered ally, Russia, and a nuclear North Korea and, quite possibly, a nuclear Iran.

China

It notes that China has improved the effectiveness of its arms to such an extent that, in some areas, it has already matched or surpassed America. China’s navy is the world’s largest, and has the newest vessels. Around 70% of Chinese warships were launched after 2010, compared with a quarter of America’s. Chinese ships are in many cases comparable to America’s, says the US Office of Naval Intelligence, “and China is quickly closing the gap in any areas of deficiency.”

In terms of vertical launch system (VLS) cells, advanced missile launchers, American ships, on average, had 222 VLS cells for each Chinese one in 2004. This is now down to around two to one, and , is expected to tip in China’s favour between 2026 and 2027. America has nothing like the hybrid propulsion systems in China’s Zhou-class submarine. A Chinese amphibious assault ship under construction, called the Type 076, will be the world’s largest such vessel and the only one to boast a catapult to launch drones.

China now produces war plances close to NATO caliber. It likely out produces America in terms of stealth fighters. China has the world’s leading hypersonic arsenal. China has already deployed multiple hypersonic-weapon systems.

Some surveys suggest that in 2024 China ranked top in six out of seven crucial defence-related areas: advanced aircraft engines, drones and collaborative robots, hypersonic detection and tracking, advanced robotics, autonomous systems and space-launch systems. America was ahead only in small satellites.

Yet China spends less than 2% of its GDP on the armed forces, compared with more than 3% in America.

West Asia

Israel says it will strike back. I find this game of telling your oppenent you are going to attack - giving him plenty of time to prepare for your attack and then attacking, but maybe not so much as you said you would, and then waiting for the retaliation - somewhat quaint, to say the least.

It is reminiscent of seventeenth century style war-by-the-square tactics of bright uniforms, gleaming bayonets, chess-board moves and a death toll accounted for almost solely by civilians (unless you were Cromwell beseiging, starving and burning Irish towns, or European imperialists putting down the revolting natives).

What good are your friends if they stand by waiting for the next so clever, finely-tuned calibration, while your family is splattered across concrete and shrapnel?

Maybe there’s better hope that disarray in Israel’s cabinet as Netanyahu fires Gallant, a scandal that exposes Netanyahu’s manipulation and abuse of intelligence, and the IDF’s heavy losses under Hezbelloh fire in Lebanon, will do the job.

The word “pre-emptive” appears nowhere in popular discussion about what for both Iran and Israel are existential implications of their escalation. In the past couple of days Western mainstream media have been boosting Israeli claims to have inflicted significant damage in its strike on Iran on October 26th. I think these are almost certainly pre-election puffery intended to disguise real anxiety on all sides.

Given that some independent experts such as Alastair Crooke are saying that in fact Israel aborted its attack, the claims from Tel Aviv faithfully parrotted by Western media with reverential deference to “satellite evidence” (which always has to be interpreted by someone “official”) sound preposterously adventurous.

One important thing that serious analysts will now have learned following Western media coverage of US wars in defense of forever hegemony is that the public are right to accord even less respect for their media than they do for their Congressional representatives (i.e. very, very, very little) even if their reasons are problematic.

The Economist, ever hopeful on behalf of the Collect West, concludes that Israel would probably need America’s assistance in a full-fledged assault on Iranian nuclear sites. Why? Because of the number of munitions involved, which “would tax even Israel’s large and capable air force.”

In other words, Israel, pampered in extremis by Washington generosity, does not have the stuff, and Washington is running low on a lot of the stuff because it has given a lot of stuff to Zelenskiy. The Economist, that ever-enterprising warrior of neoliberal investigative journalism, notes that America’s Central Command worked exceptionally closely with Israel in planning the latest strikes, according to Israeli security officials (my emphasis).

“On October 4th Donald Trump encouraged Israel to go after nuclear facilities: “That’s the thing you want to hit, right?” Should Mr Trump be re-elected on November 5th, Mr Netanyahu might decide that the moment is ripe for such an attack. Iran would now find it much harder to parry it.”

And that is why there is no good news in this election for the cause of peace.

Ukraine

The greatest strength of the Collective West is the strength of its self-delusions.

Dima of the Military Summary Channel who seems to be giving strange weight to Ukrainian sources on the subject tells us that the West is cautioning Ukraine from attacking North Korean soldiers in Sudja because then North Korea would enter into a direct war with Ukraine where it would doubtless meet the shells supplied by South Korea.

At some point soon I need to get back to more granular reports of the continuing Russian offensives in Ukraine. The basic story is one of consistent Russian advancement and Russian territorial gains. Even in Vovchansk, Russia now appears to be in control of the northern sector of the city, while in Kursk it persists in its gradual expulsion of Ukrainian forces whose presence in Kursk, Zelenskiy kindly explains, was never, ever, ever, anything to do with the Kursk nuclear power plant, because Ukrainians are nice people who never do things like that, except for when they try to shell, bomb or invade the Zapporizhzhia nuclear power plant. Which is something entirely different, one supposes.

Poland

“This was in in response to Zelensky complaining about Poland supposedly withholding some of its armaments such as the MiG-29 fighter jets. Sikorski also reminded Zelensky that Poland has done more for Ukraine than any other country in reference to President Andrzej Duda’s disclosure over the summer that it already gave 3.3% of its GPD to the cause”.

But:

“There is no scenario in which we hand over weapons that we have recently bought for billions of zlotys from the pockets of our taxpayers. These weapons must serve the security and defense of the Republic of Poland.”

Sikorski has expressed support for Zelensky’s proposal that Poland intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine, but only with support from NATO. Polish society, meanwhile is shown by polls to be getting fed up with the proxy war. 

“The only reason why Poland is wising up is because of next year’s presidential election that the ruling liberal-globalist coalition wants to win. Outgoing President Duda is a (very imperfect) conservative-nationalist who’s served to check returning Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ideologically driven domestic agenda. It’s therefore imperative for the ruling coalition to replace him one of their own, which could end up being Sikorski as he himself recently hinted in response to speculation about his candidacy”.

It seems that Sikorski is courting conservative-nationalist support for his possible candidacy for the Polish presidency next year.