EDITORIAL: Revolution or no revolution, that is the question.

The Egyptian uprising is still very much undecided in terms of ultimate outcome

“The Tunisian and Egyptian uprisings are not, as some armchair pundits called the Tunisian one, Jasmine Revolutions. They are ones of bread, bullets, blood, democracy and dignity. State security forces have killed hundreds of people in both countries and wounded thousands. Many more have been arrested. But the fire of revolt sparked by Muhammad Bouzizi’s self-immolation in Tunis last December has now turned into a conflagration of popular upheaval across the Arab world largely led by workers, students, and the unemployed (men and women). Current protests in Egypt have reached a new crescendo. Other demonstrations in Yemen, Algeria and Jordan are far from turning the tables on their regimes but continue to exert pressure against the status quo. Large disaffected sections of an emaciated middle-class of professionals, public servants, and petit-bourgeois have also jumped on the revolutionary bandwagon….”(Hicham Safieddine, Reform or Revolution) 

PATRICE GREANVILLE 

AS ALL OF YOU CAN IMAGINE there’s been quite a bit of discussion among the editors as to the true meaning of the recent wave of convulsions—unprecedented by any standard—throughout the Arab world, but with their current epicenter in Tunisia and Egypt. Seasoned political analysts like Stephen Lendman, Rob Kall, Glen Ford, Danny Schechter, Margaret Kimberley, Bill Van Auken, and Bill Blum have produced compelling reports on the topic, and I strongly urge you to read them. Others, like the quoted Safieddine, have also filed invaluable insights into this world historical event, and posed the right questions. The consensus seems to be that the horrific sacrifice of the Egyptian and Arab masses may not deliver them fully, if at all, from the oppression they have long endured. Considering what has happened, and following the rule of never underestimating our enemies, I share their reservations about the outcome of this brave struggle.

But this is not to deny one iota that the precedent alone of this explosion will have enormous, long lasting implications for the region and beyond. (Among other things it has opened a rare window onto the actions of a courageous people to sheepish Americans, many of whom are increasingly mad at the status quo but keep fretting about the options. The window is all the more interesting because the powers that be, along with their meretricious media, are seen as endorsing the rebellion).

So far the class composition of the uprisings is diverse, and that of the leadership—if we can call it that at this point—is mixed. Obviously (and fortunately) there are radical elements in their ranks, and the unions—long discounted as effective players in this area of the world—have suddenly begun to show renewed vigor. But bourgeois participants are many, and fundamental islamists are also capable of influencing large numbers. If the masses follow either of the latter two ideological strands, the possibility of a true revolution is finished. Perhaps for generations. And that is even without factoring the impact of foreign intervention—open and stealthy by the usual suspects—and the braking effect of conservative army fficers and civilians.

My chief concern therefore is that while the forces pushing to topple Mubarak coalesce around their hatred for this imperial henchman, including perhaps some silent sections of the army, with his departure we may see that the anti-Mubarak front is (a) essentially leaderless or is still suffering from a very amorphous type of proto-leadership, (b) that it may lack a powerful, well organized revolutionary component (hence Washington’s “kind” posture toward it); (c) that after 30 years of tyranny, even mild reforms may seem to some wonderful and satisfactory to placate their anger, and (d) we still don’t know what hidden cards Washington and Israel may have for the region, including a military option.

Revolution an elusive objective

As things stand, the long-term odds seem to be on the side of a petty bourgeois-reformist/nationalist modernizing coalition coming to power, with a sprinkling of Islamic factions, including MB, a treacherous group with longstanding ties to the CIA, etc.  Such government would inevitably fall under the control—direct or indirect—of Washington and Jerusalem. Or, equally possible, Egypt may witness the rise of a neo-Nasserite junta, with progressive junior nationalist officers in the army paving the way for further changes. The bottom line is that this is a complex process that will surely test to the limit the political maturity of the Egyptian people, and their alertness against the inevitable moves to co-opt, blunt or eviscerate their revolutionary thrust. In this, again, I remain pessimistic because the scoundrels facing them are past masters of theatrics, and their resources simply unlimited. If they don’t panic, they can well afford to wait out the most potent wave of popular assault and then deflate its virulence in carefully planned stages.

There will be learning to be done on all sides, and students of insurrectionary tactics and strategies will be paying close attention to the process to discern the limits and/or potential of spontaneous revolts aided by technology in the 21st C. My feeling has always been that without a hardened, well formulated revolutionary vanguard, spontaneism eventually dissolves and/or is outlasted and outmaneuvered by the continuists (we just saw that in France vs. Sarkozy) who then proceed to “pacify” or smash, as the case will permit, one by one, each rebellious component. From that perspective, although the bourgeois secular reformist faction is large at present, the Islamicist segment offers more in the sense of a disciplined front and cannot be discounted. Still, at the end of the day, whatever the immediate, short-term resolution to the impasse, this quake may be just the beginning. Who knows, maybe a truly revolutionary coalition emerges from the current chaos. 

On verra bien !

Meanwhile, it’s clear the Arab world is finally —in electrifying fashion—standing up. As seen so often in the resiliency of the Palestinian people, their valor is legendary. Let us all salute the exemplary Egyptian and Tunisian people, along with their brothers and sisters in the Arab nation. May their struggles be crowned with authentic popular power and the prompt rectification of so many heinous injustices.

PATRICE GREANVILLE is editor in chief of The Greanville Post.

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The following related posts are highly recommended:

BILL BLUM ON EGYPT: A cautionary tale

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12484

STEPHEN LENDMAN on the Egyptian uprising

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12414

HICHAM SAFIEDDINE

Tomorrow’s Tunis and Egypt: Reform or Revolution?

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12386

 MARGARET KIMBERLEY

Freedom Rider: Mubarak’s Fall is Good News

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12394

ROB KALL

Egypt’s Revolution May Not Produce Democracy

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12285

EGYPT SHAKES THE WORLD

VIDEOS

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12452

• Protest before Egyptian Embassy, London
• Roots of the Egyptian Revolutionary Moment
• The masses Defiant
• All eyes now on the Egyptian army

THE SUDDEN EXPLOSION OF POPULAR IRE being seen in Egypt and other countries of the Middle East ensues from decades of brutal oppression and corruption by dictators and elites cynically supported by Israel and the United States. This video is courtesy of The Real News Network (TRNN). For continuous coverage of events in Egypt as they develop, watch history in the making on Al Jazeera television.

CHRIS HEDGES

What Corruption and Force Have Wrought in Egypt

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12379

DANNY SCHECHTER

The hidden roots of Egypt’s despair

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12357

PEPE ESCOBAR: CRISIS IN EGYPT

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12349

GWYNNE DYER

Has revolution come to Egypt?

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12308

PHILIP WEISS

The Egyptian revolution threatens an American-imposed order of Arabophobia and false choices

https://www.greanvillepost.com/?p=12268