By Pepe Escobar, posted with permission and widely cross-posted
The charade has come to a point that – diplomatically – is quite unprecedented: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov lost his Taoist patience.
The dreaded "Russian horde" is not exactly easy to provoke into an "aggression".
American hysteria over the “imminent” Russian invasion of Ukraine has exploded every geopolitical Stupid-o-Meter in sight – and that’s quite an accomplishment.
What a mess. Sections of the U.S. Deep State are in open revolt against the combo that remote controls Crash Test Dummy, who impersonates POTUS. The neocon-neoliberal axis is itching for a war – but has no idea how to sell it to an immensely fractured public opinion.
UKUS, which de facto controls the Five Eyes spy scam, excels only in propaganda. So in the end it’s up to the CIA/MI6 intel axis and their vast network of media chihuahuas to accelerate Fear and Loathing ad infinitum.
Russophobic U.S. Think Tankland would very much cherish a Russian “invasion”, out of the blue, and could not give a damn about the inevitable trouncing of Ukraine. The problem is the White House – and the Pentagon – must “intervene”, forcefully; otherwise that will represent a catastrophic loss of “credibility” for the Empire.
So what do these people want? They want to provoke Moscow by all means available to exercise “Russian aggression”, resulting in a lightning fast war that will be a highway to hell for Ukraine, but with zero casualties for NATO and the Pentagon.
The US has no weapons or technologies capable of neutralising Russia's latest generation of strategic and tactical weapons.
Then the Empire of Chaos will blame Russia; unleash a tsunami of fresh sanctions, especially financial; and try to shut off all economic links between Russia and NATOstan.
Reality dictates that none of the above is going to happen.
All exponents of Russian leadership, starting with President Putin, have already made it clear, over and over again, what happens if the Ukro-dementials start a blitzkrieg over Donbass: Ukraine will be mercilessly smashed – and that applies not only to the ethno-fascist gang in Kiev. Ukraine will cease to exist as a state.
Defense Minister Shoigu, for his part, has staged all manner of not exactly soft persuasion, featuring Tu-22M3 bombers or Tu-160 White Swan bombers.
The inestimable Andrei Martyanov has conclusively explained, over and over again, that “NATO doesn’t have forces not only to ‘counter-act’ anything Russia does but even if it wanted to it still has no means to fight a war with Russia.”
Martyanov notes, “there is nothing in the U.S. arsenal now and in the foreseeable future which can intercept Mach=9-10+, let alone M=20-27, targets. That’s the issue. Same analytical method applies to a situation in 404. The only thing U.S. (NATO) can hope for is to somehow provoke Russia into the invasion of this shithole of a country and then get all SIGINT it can once Russia’s C4ISR gets into full combat mode.”
Translation: anything the Empire of Chaos and its NATO subsidiary try in Donbass, directly or indirectly, the humiliation will make the Afghanistan “withdrawal” look like a House of Gucci dinner party.
No one should expect clueless NATO puppets – starting with secretary-general Stoltenberg – to understand the military stakes. After all, these are the same puppets who have been building up a situation which might ultimately leave Moscow with a single, stark choice: be ready to fight a full scale hot war in Europe – which could become nuclear in a flash. And ready they are.
It’s all about Minsk
In a parallel reality, “meddling in 404” – a delightful Martyanov reference to a hellhole that is little more than a computer error – is a totally different story. That perfectly fits American juvenilia ethos.
At least some of the adults in selected rooms are talking. The CIA’s Burns went to Moscow to try to extract some assurance that in the event NATO Special Forces were caught in the cauldrons – Debaltsevo 2015-style – that the People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk, with Russian help, will concoct, they would be allowed to escape.
His interlocutor, Patrushev, told Burns – diplomatically – to get lost.
Chief of the General Staff, Gen Valery Gerasimov, had a phone call with Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen Mark Milley, ostensibly to ensure, in Pentagonese, “risk-reduction and operational de-confliction”. No substantial details were leaked.
It remains to be seen how this “de-confliction” will happen in practice when Defense Minister Shoigu revealed U.S. nuclear-capable bombers have been practicing, in their sorties across Eastern Europe, “their ability to use nuclear weapons against Russia”. Shoigu discussed that in detail with Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe: after all the Americans will certainly pull the same stunt against China.
The root cause of all this drama is stark: Kiev simply refuses to respect the February 2015 Minsk Agreement.
In a nutshell, the deal stipulated that Kiev should grant autonomy to Donbass via a constitutional amendment, referred to as “special status”; issue a general amnesty; and start a dialogue with the people’s republics of Donetsk and Lugansk.
Over the years, Kiev fulfilled exactly zero commitments – while the proverbial NATOstan media machine incessantly pounded global opinion with fake news, spinning that Russia was violating Minsk. Russia is not even mentioned in the agreement.
Moscow in fact always respected the Minsk Agreement – which translates as regarding Donbass as an integral, autonomous part of Ukraine. Moscow has zero interest in promoting regime change in Kiev.
This charade has come to a point that – diplomatically – is quite unprecedented: Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov lost his Taoist patience.
Lavrov was forced, under the circumstances, to publish 28 pages of correspondence between Moscow on one hand, and Berlin and Paris on the other, evolving around the preparation of a high-level meeting on Ukraine.
Moscow was in fact calling for one of the central points of the agreement to be implemented: a direct dialogue between Kiev and Donbass. Berlin and Paris said this was unacceptable. So yes: both, for all practical purposes, destroyed the Minsk Agreement. Public opinion across NATOstan has no idea whatsoever this actually happened.
Lavrov did not mince his words: “I am sure that you understand the necessity of this unconventional step, because it is a matter of conveying to the world community the truth about who is fulfilling, and how, the obligations under international law that have been agreed at the highest level.”
So it’s no wonder that the leadership in Moscow concluded it’s an absolute waste of time to talk to Berlin and Paris about Ukraine: they lied, cheated – and then blamed Russia. This “decision” at the EU level faithfully mirrors NATO’s campaign of stoking the flames of imminent “Russian aggression” against Ukraine.
Armchair warriors, unite!
Across NATOstan, the trademark stupidity of U.S. Think Tankland rules unabated, congregating countless acolytes spewing out the talking points of choice: “relentless Russian subversion”, “thug” Putin “intimidation” of Ukraine, Russians as “predators”, and everything now coupled with “power-hungry China’s war on Western values.”
Some Brit hack, in a twisted way, actually managed to sum up the overall impotence – and insignificance – by painting Europe as a victim, “a beleaguered democratic island in an anarchic world, which a rising tide of authoritarianism, impunity and international rule-breaking threatens to inundate”.
The answer by NATOstan Defense Ministers is to come up with a Strategic Compass – essentially an anti-Russia-China scam – complete with “rapid deployment forces”. Led by who, General Macron?
As it stands, poor NATOstan is uncontrollably sobbing, accusing those Russian hooligans – scary monsters, to quote David Bowie – of staging an anti-satellite missile test and thus “scorning European safety concerns”.
Something must have got lost in translation. So here’s what happened: Russia conclusively demonstrated it’s capable of obliterating each and every one of NATO’s satellites and blind “all their missiles, planes and ships, not to mention ground forces” in case they decide to materialize their warmongering ideas.
Obviously those deaf, dumb and blind NATOstan armchair warrior clowns – fresh from their Afghan “performance” – won’t get the message. But NATOstan anyway was never accused of being partial to reality.
Pepe Escobar is a Brazilian journalist and international policy analyst whose column "The Roving Eye" for Asia Times Online regularly discusses the multi-national "competition for dominance over the Middle East and Central Asia." Escobar is also a frequent commentator on Russia's RT and Sputnik News, telling The New Republic in 2012 that he was not troubled by its Russian sponsorship: I knew the Kremlin involvement, but I said, why not use it? After a few months, I was very impressed by the American audience.Commentary
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It is not Ukraine that fails to honor Minsk, as much as AZ elites in Washington who have no desire seeing agreement honored. The fascist government in Kiev is remote controlled by Empire. The real root of the problem is London and Washington D.C, and not Kiev. Kiev is a mere pawn.
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Spot on. That’s the reason why Russia has stopped talking to EU (read, Germany and France) and Nato, and instead will deal only with the puppet master, the US.
Russian envoy to the US, Anatoly Antonov, has also been vocal lately, I notice. At the moment I reckon the most important conversations are between Gerasimov and Milley, and perhaps Patrushev and Burns. Messrs Shoigu and Lavrov talking to their US counterparts are strictly for sticking to form only.
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As Pepe summarizes through this article exposition, all that is between war and no war is “phone line between Milley and Gerasimov”.
We have deconfliction possibilities but no risk-reduction.
The West is testing every form of risk to the limits of those actions.
This leaves Russia with its red lines and military defense doctrines.
If the US, UK, Ukies, Poland, Balts, or NATO transgress any red line, there will be certain war.
It won’t come as an invasion. The Russians will use stand off air power and missiles, long range artillery and overwhelming use of all of it.
Tanks won’t roll across a border unless a massacre of civilians in Donbass or Kaliningrad or Crimea are threatened.
Meanwhile, during this war the West will have its command and control terminated, its leadership seriously decapitated and its war-fighting capacity severely truncated. Consequentially, Ukraine will no longer exist.
If the war continues for hours, all launch points against Russia will be obliterated.
Russia will conduct operations until the West surrenders and NATO stands down and sues for ceasefire.
We might see Russian Generals in some capitals and HQs of the transgressors as signs that the war is a total victory for Russia and absolute defeat for the Russophobes.Starting this war is like rabbits and squirrels attacking a Bear. All that will happen is stew.
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You are the man.
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The first I agree with. The latter – not so much.
Try to remember that “launch points” also include US nuclear submarines with second strike capability. Russia is not stupid.
Unless the US or NATO launches direct attacks against Russian territory or Russian forces, Russia will not engage US or NATO forces, nuclear or otherwise. In the event of the US or NATO directly attacking Russian forces, Russia will limit its response to “tit-for-tat” until the risk of escalation drops below the necessity of terminating further attacks, at which point Russia will attempt full dominance of the battlefield. At that point, we’re in WWIII and the bulk of Russia and the US populations will cease to exist. There will be no Russian generals in European capitals because there won’t be any European capitals.
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@Steven Hack: “There will be no Russian generals in European capitals because there won’t be any European capitals.”
Neither will there be any North American capital. Which is why the Chosen Folk (the self styled Elite) are buying up land to build their new bolt-holes in the southernmost tip of South America, or in islands such as New Zealand near the Antarctic.
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@Larchmonter: “We might see Russian Generals in some capitals ”
There was a joke by Scott Humor here, years ago: Russian Army has been invited to visit a Western capital twice: Napoleon invited us to Paris, and Hitler invited us to Berlin. We are waiting for a third invitation.
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Larchmonter445: “If the war continues for hours, all launch points against Russia will be obliterated.”
I would imagine that Russian launch points would also be targeted, but how long could they defend them? Or, would Russia hit and run constantly?
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Read Andrei Martyanov’s blog on Salvo tactics.
https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/11/salvo-warfare-i.html
This will give you an idea of how the Russians will ‘fight’.
Missiles, long range artillery, armed drones, combined with Electronic Warfare tools that disable defenses and incoming munitions.
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Even with direct threats to the physical well being of the people who call the shots, the Empire doesn’t stop. Don’t forget what Putin already Said:”the first victims in ww3 will be the people in the decision making centers” Do they think he is bluffing?
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The paradox is that Putin’s team does not want to destroy USA as a legitimate state. This team does not want to destroy even the deep state of USA , which is the one pushing USA into self-destruction.
What they want is to make sure to everyone that RF is ready to help any state as long as it is ready to help itself . And they prove it in deeds: recently sending extra gas to Europe, oil to USA, calming things down all over the world, whenever they are asked.
This is a long term policy, does require patience, conviction, stamina, integrity. It already resulted in incredible achievements, too numerous to cite, most important
being clarification of evil deeds we witness every day committed by deep state.It appears that the deep state is militarily checkmated, or almost so, at least w.r.t. RF, China. And I can see its monumental economical and spiritual withdrawal. Situation is far less clear with information war, biochemical war, financial/banking and cultural wars.
Pepe E. does a wonderful job addressing these conflicts and I thank him for that.
Best regards, Spiral
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The paradox is that Putin’s team does not want to destroy USA as a legitimate state. This team does not want to destroy even the deep state of USA , which is the one pushing USA into self-destruction.
I agree. And furthermore I suggest that the destruction of the US as a functioning war-dependent state is the goal. Legitimacy and sovereignty are not an issue. That’s in Russia’s Foreign Policy Manual 101: recognition of legitimacy and sovereignty is the bedrock of peaceful and respectful relations between states. That’s why the US et al resists that with all its might: it has no interest in peaceful and respectful relations between states.
The war being fought in these comments is the last war. Destroying, decimating and killing millions of people.
The war the Russians and the Chinese appear to be fighting now is literally, barely in sight. It’s electronic, underwater (USS Connecticut) and in space. The intent is to implode the enemy’s fundamental fighting capacity by, among other things, but primarily, by collapsing domestic confidence in the enemy’s homeland, a la Greer’s Twilight’s Last Gleaming scenario. A devastating asymmetric response to the enemy’s extremely vulnerable and very public attempt to assert hegemony via “soft power,” in this case the US working against time to demonstrate that Russia and China are responsible for deadly and unjustified military aggression and thereby pulling the rest of the world behind it (the US) and against Russia and China.
The Great Reset/Build Back Better/Climate Change cabal has fostered a mass psychosis in its realm, but that breakdown shows some signs of wearing thin. Tens of thousands of people are hitting their streets with each ratchet of the authoritarian control wheel. True, in this regard the US population lags that of the EU, but there is evidence underneath the MSM blanket over real events that the US population looks ripe to resist in a much more meaningful way.
An unexpected devastating, calculated asymmetric strike by Russia/China against an obvious US military in a Russia/China theater far from US shores that demonstrates the utter weakness of the US ability to project power could break this barely visible WW3/4 wide open and foment respective domestic US/EU collapse.
I suggest that would be the appropriate war to wage: nearly all the damage would be to the enemy’s domestic foundation.
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Thanks Andrei for posting Pepe Escobar’s article. Pepe is thorough in his analyses which is further complemented by reference to Mr Andrei Martyanov.
There is another twist to the desire for war by the International bankers. They believe that the fastest way to change the world is through a global war, which they tried unsuccessfully in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria,Yemen and Libya, to bring about their New Secular World Order…meaning Satanic World Order where God Almighty has no role…that is delusional of the International Banker’s.
The twist is that there is resistance growing to the bioweapons (COVID-19 and pseudo-vaccines) they have unleashed on the world…not to mention the fact that Nuremberg 2.0 has already begun in Europe…and unless they can blow this threat of backlash/guillotine/Nuremberg 2.0 trials by blowing up the world in a nuclear WWIII…the elite/illuminati/International bankers are toast.
That is why they are so desperate so get something going with Russia or China. I wouldn’t be surprised if Israeli attack on Iran is the trigger.
Bassam Nihad Jarra wrote a book from Palestinian refugee camps in Southern Lebanon titled, “Israeli Empire Collapses in 2022” which was published in English around the beginning of this century. He based is on history and numerology dating back to Prophet Solomon (peace be upon him) and years it took for Northern Israel (Samarra) to collapse and then the collapse of Judea (Southern Israel).
From the unfolding developments in Ukraine, demonization of Russia by the West, Russian advanced weapons, supply chain breakages in energy and food, and repeated pronounncements of Dark Winter etc. this is a very likely scenario in my mind. Only God Almighty knows the final outcome because HE is in Charge.
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I forgot to mention the implosion of the biggest global credit bubble is another reason why international bankers are looking for to turn the table over and start over again with CBDC (central bank digital currencies) for total control, God forbid!
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If China brings in by rail 20-25 Divisions and their equipment to the Russian border where Russian troops are stationed, all this noise would stop.
It might sound outlandish, but why should Russia carry the full weight alone.
And now it seems TThe Ukraine burned Chinese investors for $ 4.5 billion dollars. Good enough and excuse as any.
Look at these two Azkhanizi’s plotting and laughing at the situation at hand.
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– 26000 to 28000 man made objects in space orbiting the Earth.
– 3500 satellites
– 400 to 450 are military satellites, 150 to 160 are American.
If the Russians are capable of identifying and tracking enough American satellites, while producing and launching enough missiles with their S-500 and S-550, and possibly future S-600 (and God knows what else they have), then (pardon my French) the Americans are truly fkd.
The recent shooting down of old Russian satellite was the A235 Nudol missile which is new, it’s first real world test I believe. It makes Mr Musks Starlink (which is very much a military project with real world military applications) obsolete before it is completed. No wonder the hysteria coming from the West has increased a notch or two in the last two weeks.
Russia has been trying very hard to teach the empire some basic truths about the real world and long-term survival within it. So far, Washington has been completely refractory to facts, logic and simple common sense. It seems set on learning (what little it can) the hard way. The first thing it needs to realise is that its own people are not on board with starting WWIII to maintain hegemony for a coterie of selfish wealthy louts who think they own, not just America, but the entire planet because they have a talent for deception and theft. We are also not on board with the race-based civil war they are trying to foment amongst our people, but that’s a separate issue to be debated on its own (lack of) merits.
Thanks you, Weary, for saying this.
Hitting a satellite with a missile at 650 km high is a sure demonstration of very real escalation dominance. I’m sure the entities that operate Brandon shit a few beds over that one.