A little more than a year ago, I wrote a strategic analysis of the direction of the war in Ukraine. From my point of view, it is still valid in its entirety, and it is far more interesting and urgent today than it was a year ago. Why? Because most of the predictions made in the article came true in the meanwhile.

Well, not exactly. I made one mistake, and I’m going to discuss it below.

But what was that article? It is one of my favorite articles that I have written since the beginning of Black Mountain Analysis, and it was dedicated to Andrei Raevsky (The Saker), whom I value tremendously. I think we all miss him. It is the article “Prospects for World War 3”.

In this article, I discussed the strategic outlook for the war in Ukraine and the prospects for a World War evolving out of the conflict in Ukraine.

Today, I want to revisit a few of the statements in this particular article to reassess the prospects for a World War, and further on, I want to discuss a few urgent topics.

Resources

In this article, I will discuss several topics I have already written about extensively. Since I will try to give only updates, it makes more than sense to re-read the original articles to get the context and the full picture:

• Russia’s Attacks on the Ukrainian Energy Infrastructure (2022)

• Strategic Analysis of the Ukrainian War and Prospects for WW3 (Early 2023)

The 2022 article is unedited.

Key Expressions

Basics

There are a few key expressions from my former articles that I feel obliged to reiterate, even though I recommended the re-reading.

Let’s start.

The nature of a World War

The question is, of course, what are the prospects for World War 3? But to answer this question, we first should ask a set of questions to understand what World War 3 actually means. Let’s take a look at the following Screenshot from my abovementioned article.

These questions make it clearer that World War 3 doesn’t automatically mean the end of the world through a nuclear holocaust. This could actually happen if Russia and the United States start a war against each other. However, there are various other scenarios for World War Three without the need for a clash between the superpowers.

Considering the prospects for a World War between the superpowers, I concluded in my previous article that there is a probability of about 10% for this to happen. In the meantime, my assessment changed, and I am going to explain that in this article.

Destruction of the Ukrainian Army

In the introduction, I mentioned a mistake I had made in the article. And I indeed made a mistake. So, let’s discuss this mistake here. I predicted the Ukrainian Army would be defeated and collapse by the Summer of 2023. And yet, the Ukrainians are still “fighting” (dying) in the Donbas. Obviously, I was wrong.

Now, let’s discuss the reasons.

As expected by everyone, back when I wrote the article, the Ukrainians started a big offensive against the Russian lines a few weeks/months after I wrote the article. As expected, they threw in most of their trained soldiers and the best equipment, both Soviet and Western, in this offensive. The result is well known. A total defeat of the Ukrainian army. They suffered some 130,000 dead and probably the same number of critically wounded within three months. Moreover, they lost most of the still functioning Western-supplied equipment.

As predicted by me and several other analysts, the Ukrainian army was defeated and destroyed. After such a defeat, a collapse usually follows. And it would have followed, under military logic. The problem is found somewhere else. To understand that problem, we need to think about the $60bn, which is constantly in the discussion to be released by the Americans to “aid” (destroy) Ukraine.

As most other analysts have pointed out, the biggest share will stay in the United States for “rearmament” and distribution between the shareholders of the MIC. Still, several billions would go to Ukraine. Not in the form of weapons. Well, yes, there will be enough weapons to equip this or that infantry brigade somehow to keep up the dying on both sides, notably to ensure that the able-bodied male Ukrainian populations will be finished off comprehensively. But that’s not the point. The point is to pay off the entire corrupt leadership of Ukraine to continue all efforts that are needed to keep up the rear to be able to mobilize people and send them to the front to their almost instant death.

There is no such thing as: “Ukraine did this” or “Ukraine said that.” Ukraine is a brotherly Slavic and Orthodox nation, and it would never do anything against Russia. Ukraine is a part of Russia. So, to keep up one of the biggest brainwashing operations (psychical level) and mobilization operations (physical level) to comprehensively divide Russians and Ukrainians and to exterminate the Ukrainian able-bodied male population to deny them as resources for Russia. Moreover, to force Russia to make colossal investments to rebuild the new Ukrainian oblast(s) and solve the social and demographic problems in the new oblast(s).

In other words, all important leaders in Ukraine need to be paid off. Moreover, safe places for their escape when the well-known (to everyone) collapse eventually comes need to be provided for everyone abroad. These are the billions that keep the Ukrainian leadership slaughtering their own male population until the very end as long as it is physically possible. And it is still physically possible. We must not forget the foreign mercenaries (soldiers) on Ukrainian soil who are helping to keep the rear in line. We are talking about outright murder of a people.

So, yes. Even though I predicted the military defeat of Ukraine correctly, I couldn’t imagine in my worst nightmare the degree of betrayal of the “Ukrainian” leadership against their own people. I didn’t imagine the physical possibility of maintaining the mass “shipments” of people to their slaughter after such a tremendous military defeat. Even though the Ukrainian offensive was also an organized mass suicide (carrying people to their slaughter), it still was a military operation.

What has been going on since then is not a military operation. It is plugging holes in the frontlines with human meat to physically block the Russians from advancing deeper. People are being sent by truckloads into the trenches where essentially the fighting is over, except for a few hotspots where the Russians are advancing. What is left is sending these people into trenches where they are being slaughtered by all kinds of highly efficient weapons without ever seeing a single Russian soldier before their death. Notably, some of the main weapons for this are the ever-increasing drone attacks and, of course, the ever-increasing gliding bomb attacks.

So yes, the Ukrainian Army was defeated in the Summer of 2023. It was the last organized structure capable of carrying out military operations on a broader front. But it didn’t collapse because of the unimaginable degree of corruption across the Ukrainian leadership. The mission is unfortunately still on, to get rid of the able-bodied male Ukrainian population and to, at a certain point, trigger a mass exodus of people to Europe to incorporate them there forever. This is still to come.

Ukraine as a country will fall

Zelensky during a recent photo-op expedition to the front.

There are things in my articles that I’m sure of and others that I’m not. However, most articles are analyses that could be true or not. Fortunately, we have a good track record on BMA. There is one thing of which I’m sure to the core, which you can read in all of my articles from the beginning. The fact is that Ukraine will fall due to a total collapse from Donetsk up to Lvov. The whole artificial structure will be gone. I wanted to firmly reiterate that this prediction is, as always, more than up to date, and it is already being discussed in the Western media.

I’m not saying that Ukraine as a whole will become part of Russia. I’m still convinced that the Western part of Ukraine will be divided between the three neighbors, with Russia’s consent. It is absolutely in Russia’s favor that this happens. For more details, please see the quoted article.

Germany, France, and further NATO troops

In my article more than a year ago, I predicted that the Europeans would be forced to support Ukraine so that the Americans could retreat out of Ukraine and focus on Asia. This is more than apparent today. Events have fully confirmed this prediction. The only thing I didn’t expect is that little Napoleon would be one of the drivers chosen by the Western oligarchy to drive the Europeans (I assume mainly the Germans) to their slaughter. I will discuss this point in detail later in this article. Here is a screenshot of my former prediction.

 

Indicators

Moreover, I wrote about predictors that would indicate that a World War is in preparation. Please read the indicators first, and then I will discuss them.

 

I’d say, unfortunately, that more than half of the indicators are already reality:

• Covert Mobilization in Europe: There are recruitment campaigns in France for “volunteers” for service in Ukraine. Are they actually for Ukraine? Maybe yes, maybe no. The fact is that here and there, national armies are in the process of restaffing. Even in Germany, there are a lot of talks about the return of compulsory military service. I assume that it is possible that it will return sometime in the future.

• Yes, the transition into a wartime economy is widely discussed and (covertly) already in the making, at least in several important EU countries. What else should they do when their foreign markets collapse due to uncompetitive prices?

• Vladimir Putin is unleashed, especially after the West’s Crocus operation. There are a lot of slaps to be delivered.

• There are open discussions about sending European (NATO) soldiers, in a non-NATO function, to Ukraine. This is not reality.

• Russia doesn’t talk to European poodles/vassals any longer. She would talk to the Americans, but there is no official American contact since America is no longer officially or unofficially led by elected officials. I assume that the Russian SVR (Naryshkin) is talking and negotiating with representatives of the American Oligarchy. There are a lot of indications for this.

• Russia put together a wartime army of approximately one million troops. I’m not talking about the soldiers committed to the Ukrainian front. There are one million other Russians across the country preparing for war. And no, I’m not talking about the regular number of the Russian army. I’m talking about mobilized/conscripted/volunteered Russians who have been specifically put together for the defense of Russia, just in case. Of course, a fair number is dedicated to the Ukrainian theater of war. They are not solely there to finish off an already defeated Ukraine.

The bottom line is that since more than enough indicators are seen, we can conclude that we are either in World War 3 or in a pre-war situation. In other words:

• World War 3 is ongoing; OR

• It will happen within the next few years.

Why panic? It depends. I will describe it later in more detail, but I came to the conclusion that a war between the United States and Russia is off the table. For me, it looks like, after consulting numerous indications, there is an agreement in place that there will be NO war over Ukraine between the United States and Russia. Still, the United States will spend every single Dollar they can afford to keep up the war as long as possible to weaken Russia (Remember, Ukraine IS Russia).

Remember the Wars of Liberation in my previous articles? I concluded that World War 3 will be carried out between/among non-nuclear actors or between non-nuclear actors and nuclear actors all around the world. There will be NO war between nuclear powers. According to the available information, this is entirely off the table. I will explain this later.

The worst wars with far more victims than the Ukraine war are yet to come. As far as I can see, they will be fought in Europe and Asia. Hopefully, without Russia and Serbia…

Odessa

But let’s come back to Ukraine. I described Odessa as the most important city in Ukraine for the West—actually Crimea and Odessa. But since Crimea is lost to the West, we can focus on Odessa. I enumerated the reasons why Odessa (the same goes for Crimea) is the lynchpin for everything. Check out the screenshot:

 

We should, of course, add one more point:

• To stop the attacks on the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

In the past, Russian officials and even President Putin have commented about Odessa. For example, President Putin told a journalist that Odessa could become the place where peace or war is decided and so on. Meanwhile, he proclaimed Odessa to be a Russian city.

But what exactly does that mean? Some analysts understood (falsely) that it could be negotiated to achieve peace. No, no, no. Not because I don’t want it. But because of the abovementioned reasons. From my point of view, he/they meant that either it will be a Russian city (peace) or there won’t be any cities left across the world at all (war). This has been well communicated to the Western leaders. And recently also to the little rooster Napoleon as well.

Which leads me to the Odessa moment. Let’s first take a look at my definition of the Odessa moment. The following events would trigger the “Odessa” moment:

 

I think some of these events have either already been triggered or are about to be triggered:

• Collapse of Ukrainian Armed Forces.

• Collapse of the Ukrainian State.

• Complete destruction of the Ukrainian Army.

In other words, we are already either WITHIN the Odessa Moment or shortly before. This is the point where the West would need to decide whether to escalate and insert its own troops into Odessa (re-read my quoted article; it is explained in detail there in the section “Chickens in Odessa”) or to back down. Why insert troops into Odessa? To dare Russia to attack them and trigger thereby some kind of NATO response. Initially, we discussed the US 101st as a “chicken-game force.” I couldn’t imagine in my worst nightmare that we would actually talk about a chicken, the wannabe rooster Macron, to be inserted into Ukraine, most likely into Odessa. But here we are.

As far as I can understand, the media readout of the conversation between the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu, and the Minister of Defense of France, Sébastien Lecornu, Shoigu made clear what would happen not only to French soldiers but also to France as a country if they insert their chicken into Odessa. The conversation took place on April 4, 2024. Moreover, I understand that the message has been received and the likelihood of such an event has decreased tremendously. Lecornu obviously begged the Russian side numerous times for this call. Mainly to beg Shoigu to not attack his troops if he inserts them. That failed. Shoigu made clear to Lecornu what would happen in such a case. Rumors are that it would also involve Russian attacks on French military infrastructure and troops outside of Ukraine.

Why is this relevant? It is relevant because the Americans are withdrawing from this whole Ukrainian affair and are dumping the Europeans into it. Macron, being a puppet of the Western oligarchy, is doing exactly what he is being told. Until now, he was a dove. Now, suddenly, he wants to send troops to Ukraine? Neither he nor the French want that. It is his job to “want” what he is being told. And currently the strategy is to activate the Europeans somehow to get involved in Ukraine WITHOUT triggering Article 5 of NATO.

This would have a lot of advantages for the United States:

• It would free American capacities to focus on Asia. Ukraine is lost to America, and Europe is economically done.

• Europe would lose all its markets, and American companies could take over many.

• Europe would become a market for American goods, with the European firms being either gone or taken over by foreign companies.

• Europe has already been a paradise for American firms for reconstruction after great wars… Nothing new Remember the Marshall Plan?

Even though the little Rooster Napoleon might have understood the message and will back down, I assume it will not be the last attempt to bring European troops into Ukraine without a NATO mandate. Still, the most reasonable scenario is to occupy Russian-approved regions in West Ukraine. I think this will happen, and I think it is a good thing.

The Russian Steamroller

I also stated in the quoted article that if Russia mobilized its army, society, and industry so that a million-man army stands at the end of this war on a broad front, nothing could stop or hurt it. That it could even march straight through to European capitals if it wanted. To be clear, Russia has no reason to do this. There are other means. Nevertheless, this is why I’m fairly relaxed regarding notions about Western deliveries of tanks, fighter jets, Death Stars, and Tie Fighters to Ukraine. It doesn’t matter, and it makes no difference any longer.

It is not entirely clear to everybody what is currently in the making in Russia. If the West (Odessa is excluded from what I write now) decides to commit troops to relieve Ukrainian soldiers, it will make no difference. They would do that to make certain that every man, even in rear functions, would be carried/dragged to the frontlines, which would guarantee their deaths. This is possible, but they will either withdraw as soon as it is clear that the Ukrainian army is collapsing and the Russians are closing in, or they will simply be buried in Ukrainian soil in this process with almost no possible way of resistance. Not to forget about the constant drone and missile terror by the Russian army and subsequent mass casualties for these contingents. That’s why I’m very relaxed about that.

Maybe not entirely. Such an operation would only be conducted to make sure that all able-bodied male Ukrainians die. And that’s the last thing we want here. These are our people and brothers. Even for the Serbs. Even though they are currently brainwashed morons. We don’t want them dead (except the Nazis), and we are always in favor of the end of the war.

Four Letters of NATO

In the quoted article, I predicted that NATO as an organization would be dead at the time when the SMO concluded. In other words, as soon as Ukraine falls.

That might be literally the case after the fall of Ukraine as a whole. But now, everything I described in this article leads us to conclude that NATO is dead as a military organization. The Americans have no intention of fighting Russia. Even President (???) Biden makes that clear whenever he can. Yes, they might want to sustain the war to “cheaply” kill Russians by a proxy force. But they will never do anything that would lead to an armed conflict between the USA and Russia. The future power structure in the world has apparently already been determined among China, Russia, and the USA.

This requires the USA to pull out and not let any contingent from NATO engage with Russia. NATO is a political organization that primarily aims to cobble all the countries together under American or “Western” leadership. However, the word “ownership” would fit better. There is no military mission in place that could be carried out.

It is still more than dangerous because it is the primary vehicle the Western oligarchy uses to achieve its geopolitical goals; for example, hurting Russia as much as possible. Not only now but for all time as long as it exists. This is unacceptable for Russia. In the Economics and Empires Series and the above-quoted article, I described how Russia is approaching the problem of “ending” NATO by non-military means.

Conclusion

Now, let’s take a look at my conclusion more than a year ago:

 

I’d like to adjust my conclusion today slightly.

As stated, I think we are already, or will soon be, in a World War situation where many countries worldwide struggle to get free and independent positions in the developing multipolar world order. in previous articles, I called that the “Wars of Liberation”, analogous to the wars of liberation in Europe against Napoleon. But, importantly, without a clash of the big powers.

I still think that the probability for Russia to get peace after the fall and defeat of Ukraine is about 90%. Russia made it clear to the Europeans what would happen if they intervened as per the desires of the Western/American oligarchs.

This leaves us with option number 2 in my screenshot above—European intervention in Ukraine. It will most likely be somewhere in West Ukraine without Russia’s consent. I personally doubt that this will happen, but there is still a 10% probability of such a scenario. As I explained, such a percentage is derived from the assumption that a very unfavorable chain of events, incidents, and coincidences could lead to such an intervention. I believe it will not happen, at least not without consent. I’m sure Ukraine’s neighbors will get their share of Ukraine with consent from Russia, and that’s the moment when their troops could enter the rest of Ukraine freely.

As a European, I’m far more concerned about what will happen within Europe without Russian intervention. But more on that later.

Ukraine’s energy infrastructure

Basics

Here is an article I wrote a year and a half ago when Russia started targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. This article is important and valid today. I will reiterate a few important concepts of the article here, but reading the whole article to grasp the story is highly recommended.

There is an additional point to make. In that article, I didn’t value the importance of these strikes in depleting Ukraine’s air defense missiles. This should be highlighted since this was one of the main goals of the strikes and has been achieved successfully.

Reasons for the Strikes

• Depleting Ukraine’s air defense capabilities by forcing them to defend the energy infrastructure. Especially at a time when it wasn’t the goal to destroy the energy infrastructure anyway.

• Divert air defenses away from the front line and toward more favorable places for Russia.

• Bringing the energy infrastructure and replacement parts down to a critical level to prepare it for the final blow.

• Degrading Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to a degree where it couldn’t export energy to Europe but was forced to import from Europe. Ultimately, this put further stress on Europe and its energy markets. They lived well with cheap Ukrainian Energy imports.

• Starve Ukraine’s industry, especially the military industry, of energy.

• Starve Ukraine’s logistics of energy.

Reasons against a total Blackout

Why didn’t Russia cause a total blackout across Ukraine early on, in the shock and awe manner of the West? Here are several reasons:

• It is not feasible to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure during the winter. Moreover, it is not possible or acceptable to destroy the whole nation's power, because of the civilians. These are Russians, and a total blackout, especially in the winter months, would be the death sentence for tens or hundreds of thousands. Whole supply chains that are designed to keep vulnerable people alive would break. That would be unacceptable.

• Ukraine’s logistics would break down. Which would have caused Ukraine to fall back to the Dnieper earlier. And this would be highly unfavorable to Russia. Russia has all the advantages in the Donbass. Short supply lines, air superiority, a friendly population, etc. If the Ukrainians had been forced earlier to fight behind the Dnieper, this could have potentially caused far more Russian casualties in total. Especially since Ukraine had far more trained troops earlier in the war.

• Demilitarization of NATO, especially their air defenses, wouldn’t have been achieved. Which puts the West in an awkward position worldwide. Especially in the Middle East and East Asia.

• Since far more Ukrainians, and especially Nazi-minded Ukrainians, had been alive earlier in the war, there would have been a far bigger probability for a very stubborn partisan warfare against the Russians. This potential is currently being neutralized on the battlefield.

Partial Blackout

The point that I made is that there will be a blackout. There is a partial blackout in areas where the Ukrainian collapse is in motion, and the Russians are about to move in. And that it will not be during the cold period because of the civilian population. Finally, it will not be lengthy. Hence, as soon as a partial blackout in each area starts, it is to be expected that something will happen there soon.

A year and a half later we are approaching such a situation. Russia has again started to destroy objects of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Especially along the Dnieper, in Kharkov, and Sumy. This time, Russia is even directly destroying power generation capacities and turbines of hydroelectric power stations. Such strikes on the machine rooms are not repairable at least not in a reasonable time and under war conditions. The cold period will soon come to an end. And many rumors are that something is in the making in May.

I don’t want to speculate here, but things are looking very interesting in Ukraine these days.

Since this article is focused on the strategic picture, I won’t go deeper into the operational battles in Donbass. This will be discussed in future articles.

Focus shifts on Europe

As we can now even read in Western propaganda outlets, it is clear that Ukraine is about to fall. And the reason is also identified… a lack of manpower. In other words, the useful Ukrainian idiots (from a Western perspective) have been almost fully depleted.

Yes, the front line is still more or less static, except at some sections where the Ukrainians gradually retreat. And yet, everyone is afraid that within months or even weeks, there will be no Ukraine. How is that possible? Well, Ukraine still can “play” war on the front lines by feeding the last human reserves into the trenches to physically block the Russian advances. In this process, they simply get remotely killed without a fight as long as no reserves are left to fill the gaps.

I think we have reached that point now. Especially in Kharkov. Kharkov has exactly ZERO value for the West. Hence, chances are that it could be the region where the Western commanders will withdraw “their” Ukrainian troops first when the reserves are ebbing. The problem is that there is no such thing as a partial withdrawal only from Kharkov. As we learned before, Izyum is a strategic target to eventually take the Donetsk oblast by cutting off Kramatorsk and Slavyansk from the north.

However, other places, especially around Nikolayev, Odessa, and Kiev, are important to the West. And we learned that the Americans are no longer committed to the Ukrainian battlefield, at least not beyond the involvement of their money, special services, and commanders. Still, there is manpower missing.

Moreover, the Americans can’t intervene anywhere in the world any longer. Wherever they would become bogged down in a bigger war, all other regions would instantly exploit that and start freeing themselves from the American occupation. It is crucial for the Americans to cut off such a heavy anchor as the Ukrainian project. A symbol for this was the cutting off the… “heavy” anchor Victoria Nuland.

Still, there is value in Project Ukraine:

• Deindustrializing or de-marketizing of its allies to take over their markets and transform them into consumers instead of producers.

• Create eternal hate between the Europeans and the Russians to keep a grip on their European colonies.

• Since the Ukrainians have been depleted against the Russians, the Europeans can now be depleted against the Russians. By somehow forcing the major European powers to sustain the first blow by the Russians, the idea would be that it would be possible to mobilize the European populations to commit more troops to Ukraine. Of course, entirely without a NATO mandate. The first attempt was to force the Germans to attack the Crimean bridge with Taurus missiles. Which was thwarted by the leak. Then the idea was to insert the French into Odessa, to cause attacks on them. It is possible that this has also been thwarted. We will see.

• And I think there will be more attempts to force the Europeans to sustain first blows somehow and make Russia look like the aggressor. For the sole purpose of mobilizing the European people for war.

• One must not underestimate the value of the millions of Ukrainian refugees who are already in Europe. And the many more millions that will arrive as soon as the Ukrainian lines start to collapse comprehensively. This has a macroeconomic dimension. Many countries in Europe are suffering from a heavy demographic burden. There is not enough workforce, there are not enough young people to finance the pensions of the old, etc. A collapsing Ukraine and the absorption of the younger Ukrainian population are among the Europeans' goals. Make no mistake, they will do what they can to integrate them as soon as possible and to make it impossible for them to return to Ukraine. Even though the European people might not want this outcome.

Therefore, there are attempts to make the Europeans switch to war economies. The big European countries are discussing this openly, and so is the EU. It would free the American capacities for American rearmament to be able to focus on Asia, and at the same time, it would keep Russia in war longer. In the best case, another Marshal plan would be needed for Europe after this. Again.

To be straightforward, I think Russia will prevent all of this from happening. It would be diametrically against her interests.

What worries me the most, since I’m affected, is that I think that war is very much possible within Europe within the next few years. And I’m not talking about Europe versus Russia. No, I’m talking about the major European powers against one another. Ukraine will fall soon, and with it, the Western world order. Eastern European countries will get the opportunity to connect to the BRICS market and financial system (and default on the Dollar system, if needed). They will have a choice, as the free market economy foresees it. And they will choose. This will cause major friction between the European powers and the EU institution.

France, Britain, and Poland are major lynchpins in this whole struggle. I pray for peace, but there may be major escalations between the European countries. These escalations can be:

• Military nature (25% probability)

• Diplomatic and Economic nature (75%)

As you can see, I’m still optimistic that there won’t be a kinetic war in Europe, but it is far from being excluded. Still, I’m sure that there will be diplomatic and economic escalations between the major European countries as soon as Ukraine falls and the processes on Ukraine’s former borders start to unravel…

Outro

I want to conclude with another Medvedev quote, which came out today (machine translation):

“What is the difference for Washington between what happened in the Middle East and the events in ‘Ukraine’? America does not want a big war in the Middle East. And tries to maintain balance and show restraint. Killings in Gaza worsen Biden's election prospects, and the war between Israel and Iran adds further uncertainty. And the death of our people is indifferent to them. The bigger, the better. From all sides. After all, this is, as American officials say, an ‘investment.’ And they continue to invest...”