Hezbollah’s Quarterly Report

Hezbollah publishes what I call a 'quarterly report'. It's like the jihadi earnings call. The topline numbers (as of June) are that they have conducted 2,125 military operations (total), inflicted 2,000+ casualties on the IOF, and decolonized land 35 km deep into occupied Palestine, unsettling over 230,000 settlers. It's been another bad quarter of genocide from the IOF, and a good quarter of war from the Resistance.

Hezbollah Radwan commando. More than a match for any IDF soldier.

'Israelis' are well aware of this, despite massive wartime censorship. They can see the hills burning themselves, the settlers are deeply unsettled.Yesterday alone, 30 attack drones and 150 rockets targeted 15 military sites in occupied Palestine. Residents of 'New Galilee' have threatened to secede unless the government does something about it. Mainstream ministers like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir are calling to attack Lebanon now, to put an end to it, but the generals know better.

While 'Israel' has been pre-occupied with a genocide in the south, they have lost the north. As I discussed earlier, Hezbollah has been systematically eye-poking the cyclops and, now, half the time the sirens don't even go off. Hezbollah can fire at will and the Iron Dome is broken. 'Israel's' border points have been dismantled and they're completely open to ground invasion. 'Israel's' problems compound every day the attrition goes on, and it's been nine months of daily attacks now. 'Israel' can certainly bomb Lebanon whenever they want, but now Hezbollah can bomb 'Israel' whenever they want. The strategic calculus has been rocked.

You can see this from the raw numbers in the quarterly report:

The Raw Numbers

Here's all the data compared to the last 'quarterly report,' and not in Arabic. Also note that when I say Q1 or Q4 I'm approximating, I think they use the Arabic calendar. If you read this like a bloodless business report, it's fascinating what the changes from Q4 to Q1 tell you. Lots of growth in key verticals, while certain SKUs are less popular.

The low-growth areas are actually the most interesting. For example, Hezbollah is attacking relatively fewer border points (only up 14%) and using less sniper and machine guns (+6%). This tells you that Hezbollah is no longer engaging the IOF at close range, because the IOF has retreated further away. The IOF has largely abandoned the physical border, so there's simply less to shoot at. 'Israel' has retreated 35 km back. You can see this from the numbers also, because Hezbollah is using more long-range munitions, to hit them deeper and deeper in the rear.

What this means, strategically, is that 'Israel' is now completely open to ground attack. The Radwan Force can run for 35 km before 'Israel' even sees or can engage them. What Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said in an October 2023 speech has come to fruition.

What has taken place since October 8th is unprecedented, that all the Israeli positions from the sea to the heights of Shebaa Farms and (inaudible) [are reeling] under daily intensified offensive operations, targeting these posts and what's in between: tanks, armoured vehicles, drones, clusters of personnel, and above all, technical installations which are the eyes and ears of Israel.

Hezbollah has been hitting the old border for nine months and it simply doesn't exist anymore, there's a new border, and 'Israel' is getting closer and closer to being wiped off the map, inshallah. Strategically, this 'softening up' means that Hezbollah can march in anytime they want. And they have a small army dedicated to doing just that. The Radwan Force was formed for the explicit purpose of taking Galilee. Since the commander Hajj Radwan was assassinated in 2006, his very angry reincarnation has been training, planning, and preparing for this moment. Now 'Israel' has to ask itself the Dirty Harry question, “Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?”

A full-blown war between Israel and Hezbollah is brewing amid growing tensions. The Lebanese group has released video of its Radwan fighters in action near the border. The video shows a sniper unit of Radwan Force carrying out a mock operation. Israeli military experts suspect Hezbollah might be planning a big attack like the one carried out by Hamas on October 7.

I'll repeat because it's important. As of June 2024, Hezbollah can penetrate up to 35 km deep without A) running into many 'Israeli' soldiers and B) being 'seen' by 'Israeli' commanders. 'Israel' will certainly massacre citizens in southern Lebanon, but they'll lost northern 'Israel'. This changes the balance of the power in the region. The line of contact has physically moved into 'Israel', which has never really happened.

ABOVE: A Hezbollah-produced video showing the Radwan unit in action. Seems like the imperial system has sabotaged the soundtrack. If so, the images and captions still tell the story. 

You can also see that the line of contact has moved from the numbers alone. Both long-distance drone attacks and attacks on command centers are up 82%. Hezbollah is able to target deeper into occupied Palestine, and hit formerly well-protected targets. The Iron Dome is the Iron Sieve now, and 'Israel' is looking like 'macaroni in a pot,' as Cardi B said. For days at a time, the settlements are literally on fire. 'Israel' can't cover it up.

Hell, the Iron Dome can't even protect itself anymore, attacks on platforms are up 50%. The line of contact is moving further and further south, from 20 km deep in April to 35 km in June (+52%). Now Hezbollah is able to hit military factories (3 total), destroy military airships (2), and shoot down expensive drones (7). They're even able to make 'Israeli' fighter jets turn around and flee. 'Israel' no longer has air supremacy at all. There's a new king in the north, and he's a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad (what Sayyed means).

Analysis

What you can see in this quarterly report is that Hezbollah has a long-term plan and they've made investments accordingly. Hezbollah has been preparing to invade 'Israel' since 2006, when it seemed like a pipe dream. But they invested and now it pays off. Hezbollah had a detailed plan to disable 'Israel's' eyes and ears and border outposts first, and immediately after October 7th, they put it in action. And they have a plan for each step on the escalation ladder, leading to liberation in full.

Hezbollah bunker with a DShK heavy-machine gun. Food and water supplies can last 2 months or longer.

Hezbollah Toophan ATGM (tank killer). Hezbollah now also had a good supply of Russian-made Kornets, one of the best anti-tank weapons around.

Hezbollah has graduated to the use of drones and UAVs.

'Israel' has no response to this, and also no capacity, since they're a bit tied up with genocide right now. Whenever 'Israel' idly assassinates a commander—like Hajj Abu Taleb this week—they get hit literally 100 times harder. Whenever they bomb a village, they raise another battalion for the Resistance. After decades of trying to beat these people into submission, the people remain resistant, and 'Israel' just gets weaker and weaker. And so the historical abomination 'Israel' is slowly being pushed into the distance. 35 km of Palestine is that much closer to liberation.