Billy Bob

Part One
(A DISCUSSION IN TWO PARTS)

Washington seems determined to check the rise of China by any means necessary, including a cataclysmic war.

I have a number of predictions that I would like to put on the record and although there is only a small likelihood that things will turn out the way I describe, I think there is educational value in elaborating on the reasons why these predictions could possibly come true.

The most important assumption that influences these predictions is the big-picture geopolitical situation where Western global hegemony perceives itself to be under threat from China’s rapidly growing economic power.  What follows from this assumption is a further assumption that rather than resign itself to an inevitable multi-polar world where China becomes too big and too powerful to ever hope to contain, the US will implement their plan of containment against China, sooner rather than later.

So, what can the US do to contain China?  Is it possible for the US to contain China without causing great harm to the global economy and plunging humanity into a period of tremendous depression and upheaval?  Of course not.  China is the single biggest manufacturing superpower on the planet.  They are the number one trading partner for over 120 countries.  If China is to be contained, the global economy must suffer.

So "sooner rather than later" and "the global economy will necessarily suffer if China is to be contained" are the two assumptions which provide the foundation for the rest of my analysis.

Most people I think intuitively believe that the US would never do anything that would risk a global economic collapse.  But if my above assumptions are correct, and I think they are, the US has no choice but to *initiate* a global economic catastrophe, as this would be the only way that the US could significantly weaken China and remain the global hegemon throughout the rest of the 21st century.

So, these two assumptions bring two primary questions to mind regarding what I perceive to be, the inevitable conflict being pushed by the West. The first question has to do with the timeline of events and the second is, what media narratives will be manufactured in order to facilitate the rollout of this dangerous strategy, to the people of the world?

I think that the Western ruling establishment has coalesced around a strategy to initiate the necessary global economic turmoil by launching an attack on Iran.  Iran will respond to this attack by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy supplies, 20% of which transit the Strait.  I think the US wants this to happen and will use it as the justification for a large-scale attack on Iran, perhaps involving nuclear weapons.

Obviously, this will be a major historic event that will make the COVID experience seem small in comparison.  It should be noted that the US is in an ideal spot to weather such an event as the US is a net energy exporter.  The US government will be able to shield their domestic economy and the pain will be considerably less in the US than in other places such as Europe and the developing world.  The hope of course is that China will be hit hard due to their dependence on foreign energy.

I think this escalation with Iran could happen very soon and I believe that the ruling establishment consensus would like to have Trump as president to manage this strategy.  Iran has allegedly announced that they will once again attack Israel and that they will do so before the election.  I think that such an action would be of benefit to Trump but either way, I think that Trump will win the election because this is what is desired by the establishment consensus.

I think the establishment has decided on Trump because they can then blame him personally for everything that goes wrong and for all the economic fallout which will necessarily result.  They will use both carrots and sticks to get Trump to protect Israel, and the Zionist entity will seize on the opportunity to engage in even more terrorism, ethnic cleansing, and land theft, in order to expand their borders throughout Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt.  This will all be sold to the public on the grounds that we are at war with Iran and that Israel is in a fight for its very survival against a genocidal enemy intent on murdering all Israelis and destroying their country.  Again, this narrative offensive will be rolled out with such force that it will make the COVID narrative seem small in comparison.

I believe that Europe and the US will not hesitate to intervene and perhaps even facilitate a nuclear attack on Iran, while threatening the rest of the Arab world with similar destruction if they continue to attack Israel.

If such a war develops between the West and Iran, the global energy market will of course suffer tremendously and most if not all of Israel’s infrastructure will be destroyed.  I believe that Europe and the US will not hesitate to intervene and perhaps even facilitate a nuclear attack on Iran, while threatening the rest of the Arab world with similar destruction if they continue to attack Israel.

Meanwhile, Trump may attempt to bribe Russia to stand down and allow Iran to be destroyed by promising Russia a generous peace with Ukraine, an end to Western sanctions, and a comprehensive peace plan that would be contingent on Russia not siding with China.  If Russia refuses to play ball and continues to side with Iran and China instead of cutting a deal with the West, the West will obviously widen the war against Russia.  We could see literal declarations of war from Western nuclear armed countries and a wholesale mobilization and overt shift to a war economy to prepare for war with Russia and Iran.

Lastly, on the third front with China, the US has been preparing to implement a trade embargo for years.  At any given moment, the US could tell their Taiwan proxy to declare independence which would trigger an immediate Chinese trade embargo against Taiwan.  This is precisely the justification that the West would need to implement their own trade embargo against China.

And let me underscore once again that the US has been preparing for years, to choke off China's most vital maritime shipping lanes:

"They (China's vital shipping lanes) are surrounded by archipelagos of islands that isolate the seas from the Pacific and, therefore, from the rest of the world. The islands of the Philippines and Indonesia create narrow passages into the Pacific and Indian oceans. Java, Borneo and Mindanao are the frame of this system of islands, while the space between them is filled with randomly distributed smaller islands. Compounding China’s problem, the interior of the South China Sea is also filled with small islands.

Any of these islands can house hostile air and missile forces, while the narrow spaces in between can be blocked by naval forces. China doesn’t have guaranteed access to the islands on the periphery of this system. To gain access, it must control a wide passage through the South China Sea, and having done that, force its way through the narrow straits surrounding it. Assuming that the United States would position its carrier battle groups in the east and south of the outer frame, the Chinese would first have to clear the interior of the South China Sea and then fight their way through narrow choke points that the U.S. could make impassable."

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/chinas-maritime-choke-points/

So once the US begins the violent implementation of the long planned trade embargo, the US believes that it is in a much better position to hold out economically than China is.  China's economy would take a terrible beating while the US continued to trade with their allies without threat from China's nonexistent blue water navy.

So, keep in mind, there are three major theaters of operation including West Asia (Israel and Iran), Eastern Europe (Ukraine and Russia), and the South China Sea (Philipines, Taiwan, and China).  The West may choose to activate all theaters simultaneously or they may try and win one at a time culminating with China.  They may pick Trump or Harris as their chosen figurehead or they may remove either one in favor of their VP's if they turn out to be too intransigent or too incompetent.  They may choose to initiate things this week, or they may spend another year or more putting their pieces in place before we see a major push and the rollout of their strategy.

What seems clear though is that Iran, Russia, and China prefer cooperation to confrontation and it is the US alone that is hellbent on provoking confrontation.  I've described how a plausible scenario  could play out but obviously there are multiple variables at play and I could be wrong regarding the fundamental assumptions defined in paragraph four.

I'm absolutely certain though that the West can't win a war against Iran, I am equally certain that Russia would never cut a deal with the West and sell out Iran or China, and there's no chance in hell that an attempted economic embargo against China would ever work to successfully contain China.  China's rise is inevitable.  The window for success against China closed five to ten years ago.  The West is incompetent, hubristic, and incapable of rational behavior.  Putin, Xi, Kim, and the current government of Iran want to engage in win-win trade and peace through mutual prosperity.  They want to avoid war at all costs but they refuse to surrender their sovereignty in the process.

The future is bright for those countries under attack from Western Imperialism.  Western imperialism is in *terminal* decline.  Unfortunately though the West gets to decide how their collapse will play out and how many people are hurt in the process.  It doesn't seem likely that they will make good decisions, in part because the decision makers themselves will not have to suffer from the consequences of their actions.

For Part Two of this discussion, please see:

US war against Iran to contain China?

The dialectical march of history from colonialism to the equality of nations

By Charles McKelvey

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