The Big Lie is pushing the US Empire and its vassals toward social pandemonium, nuclear confrontation, or both

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Billy Bob's Blowback Roundtable
THE WORLD THROUGH AN INDEPENDENT LEFT LENS
BY BILLY BOB
with
Patrice Greanville

OpEds

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Trump at PA rally at the moment one of the bullets whizzes past his head. (Click to enlarge the picture and see the trajectory).

The recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump highlights the depth of political, social and moral decomposition currently engulfing American society, and its appalling degree of political ignorance and confusion. Trump's MAGA followers are of course one example of alarming self-delusion, born, understandably, of anger and despair. For we all know that in large measure MAGA is a product of the liberals' treachery, their cold-blooded betrayal of the working class. But the millions who still pledge their loyalty to Joe Biden or the demonstrably criminal Democrat party (the more cynical face of the duopoly, "the Blue Cult"), are no less guilty of massive naivete and self-inflicted ignorance, harder to explain considering that many in this tribe see themselves as well-educated and fairly sophisticated in the art of political interpretation.

Against this backdrop, it is nauseating to see the rabid partisan hacks on CNN, MSNBC, and innumerable other outlets, lamenting the violent reality that they have created while ignoring and denying their own singular culpability in shaping this fetid status quo.

Drenched in hypocrisy, the presstitutes and media whores (best personified by cretins like Jake Tapper, Joe Scarborough, Dana Bash, Rachel Maddow, 60 Minutes' Scott Pelley, and so many others of that ilk) have been painted into a corner and must denounce the violence that is the logical response from anyone who truly believes the rhetoric that these media whores vomit nonstop and try to instill as deeply and widely as possible, into the collective psyche. So, yes, in moments like this, they must lament and denounce political violence while ignoring the fact that the only logical response to the rhetoric that they work overtime convincing people is true, will absolutely inspire violence in anyone foolish enough to believe their lies. The lamentations are stomach turning because those making them (and their invisible patrons) refuse to be held accountable or to take responsibility for their own tremendous influence in shaping this status quo.

Totalitarian Deception

There is a dearth of honesty and truth-telling from all sides. Lying with impunity is an absolute and intrinsic feature of oligarchy pretending to be “democracy”. Despite the pervasive systemic fog, the people are getting more disgusted by the day with what they intuitively perceive as the lack of truth, transparency, accountability, and actual democracy. Yet they are without options, as the system’s entire existence rests upon a mountain of lies and is intractably divorced from objective reality. Truth is simply not an option, accountability is impossible, and democracy means nothing less than an end to the current oligarchic system. So the empire stumbles on as if controlled by a genocidal auto-pilot that can only achieve chaos, anarchy, and destruction. Meanwhile, the wealthy and powerful have no chance of saving their empire, so they engage in an increasingly frenzied looting of the planet, sacrificing entire societies in the process.

The one thing that the people need and want more than anything, is to see the powerful held to account. This is Trump's primary appeal: he sells the idea that he is hated by, and opposed to, the corrupt ruling establishment and that he will clean house, throw them out of power, and hold them to account once he takes office. This is the lie that Trump is selling and which he will likely ride all the way into the White House (if he manages to survive). It is impossible to overstate the significance of how the failed assassination attempt will aid him in selling this idea to the masses. Of course, once he returns to the White House, he will undoubtedly be every bit as feckless and impotent as he was the last time he was there. Nevertheless, what a glorious vision Trump is offering. If we ignore his disgusting nativism and his thinly veiled appeal to some of the worst aspects of white America, what could be more inspiring than the idea of a working-class champion coming to power on a tidal wave of popular support and destroying the corrupt oligarchy that has absolutely engaged in a deliberate (and indeed, experimental) effort to destroy the minds of the American public and led the planet to the brink of environmental destruction as it mindlessly murders its way towards nuclear war?

These images are now political gold. Trump is suddenly perceived by many as an iconic hero, an American Braveheart.

But Trump is nothing more than a callous, self-interested salesman, selling us the idea that he is a genuine Lenin, Stalin, Mao, Castro, or Ho Chi Minh, while he simultaneously upholds the lie that socialism is evil. I mean, what a fucking farce all of this is. Trump is trying to sell us on revolution while he must simultaneously pander to the inculcated biases of the masses and affirm that history’s actual and authentic revolutionaries, were “bad”. This is the pathetic state of Western society: The lines that divide the people against themselves, to the benefit of the oligarchs are imaginary and not based on any sort of actual fundamental political or economic reality. What a monumental brainwashing success this has been and what an accomplishment for their system of indoctrination, confusion, and control. They have succeeded in destroying the minds of the masses and they have divorced the masses from reality itself. But the oligarchs have miscalculated if they believed that such a state of affairs will be sustainable. They have miscalculated if they believed that societal brainwashing and the arbitrary factionalizing of the masses into meaningless and nonsensical categories, could achieve a sustainable and perpetual system that they could control, dominate, and exploit in perpetuity.

Like the ideology of Zionism, their self-serving efforts to further their own short-term interests were destined for long term failure, as things would inevitably spiral out of control for the future generations tasked with managing these hubristic and experimental projects. We are beginning to see the culmination of the capitalist experiment, and it illustrates the need for and superiority of socialism. As Lenin understood, imperialism is the highest —and most depraved—stage of capitalism, when the internal rot and built-in contradictions reach incurable dimensions. Indeed, as history shows, if left unchecked by an outside force (like a strong communist party), capitalism ultimately results in a monopoly of political power, a brazen tyranny in the hands of a cunning and ever richer and more concentrated wealthy elite which will then use all the tools at its disposal to keep amassing power to the detriment of the masses. And when one of these tyrannies manages to subjugate and integrate its rivals, even its class fellows in various lands, the resulting entity, sociopathic by definition, becomes a menace to all living things. This is where we are at.

The Biggest Lie of Them All: Our Malignant Foreign Policy

A recent piece by investigative historian Eric Zuesse zeroes in on this largely submerged (for a reason) aspect of our national identity. Speaking of the many dishonorable and downright criminal ways the US oligarchy has sought for more than a century to neutralise and destroy Soviet and later Russian power, this vile quest recently manifesting itself in the Ukrainian War project (which always included as one of its main objectives the enabling of a "first strike" capability to insure Moscow's "nuclear decapitation"), Zuesse reminds us that:

To put it bluntly: The U.S. was planning to ‘win’ a nuclear war against the Soviet Union, which then did what it needed to do in order to prevent that from happening. And, subsequently, starting on24 February 1990, U.S. President GHW Bush started secretly and privately instructing his vassals such as Kohl and Mitterrand, that on the U.S. side, the Cold War and the expansion of NATO right up to Russia’s borders, would continue, notwithstanding Russia’s ending the Cold War on its side, and would do this so as to become able to get a U.S. missile as close to The Kremlin as possible and so capture Russia.

Euphemisms such as ‘containing’ Russia would be the cover story for the U.S. regime’s Russia-policy, but America moving forward to become the exclusive controller over all other nations, and weakening the U.N. even further so as to edge it out into irrelevance, was going to be the realstrategy. The goal wasn’t to ‘contain’ the Soviet Union; it was to capture the Soviet Union (add it to the U.S. empire). This was the same GHW Bush who had earlier instructed his agents to communicate to Gorbachev that if the Soviet Union would end, NATO wouldn’t expand “one inch to the east [i.e., toward Russia].” And, so, the entire "collective West” lied to Gorbachev — double-crossed Russia — in order to become enabled to get its missiles sufficiently close (for a first strike) to The Kremlin. The U.S. regime was and is the aggressor in this; Russia is merely defending itself from it. But U.S.-and-‘allied’ propaganda asserts the exact opposite. In fact, the Warsaw Pact (countries that Russian forces liberated from Hitler) were never expanded westward. Nor was any such thing ever intended by Russia’s Government. The aggression (not merely invasions, but also coups, and more) came entirely from America. The propaganda simply lies.

Zuesse somberly concludes:

The U.S.-and-‘allied’ (or actually colonial) publics have been totally lied to, deceived in order to support their Government’s hegemonic imperialist foreign policies, which benefit only their super-rich. It’s tragic, really. If they knew and understood, there’d be an uprising, maybe even a revolution. But they don’t; and, so, they’re just confused and apathetic. The propaganda can achieve that, and does.

(See, How The West Double-Crossed — and Aims to Conquer — Russia).

The elites don’t have a plan. They don’t have a vision for humanity based on a genuine and honest commitment and desire to common sense principles of development, peace through mutual prosperity, cooperation, and the uplift of humanity. On the contrary, capitalists are preoccupied with conquering markets and resources, maximizing short term profit, solidifying political control, and eradicating what they consider to be ideas that are dangerous to their very narrow interests, like collectivism, altruism, and a dedicated effort to overcome humanity’s biggest challenges. This is the fundamental distinction between capitalism and socialism and the only ideological dogma that truly exists: Capitalism is a system that serves the interests of the wealthy elite, and socialism is a system that serves the interests of collective humanity. One is vastly superior to the other, and this is becoming more obvious with each passing day.

The rulers and their proxies in the media need to be held accountable for their lies. They need to be held accountable for their mis-leadership, for their lack of interest in the well being of the masses, and for their cynical manipulation and exploitation of righteous moral principles, in order to further their own ignoble, vile, and murderous, narrow imperialist ends. Watching the “news” these days couldn’t make this any clearer."

Summation

What to do? We certainly don't have the luxury of a great deal of time (or resources) but it's obvious we need to redouble our efforts at mass education and grass roots mobilisation. In this, the creation and defense of "people's media" is essential, for mass communications remains the people's enemies' strong suit and our most disabling weakness. This is now thankfully changing, at a growing pace, thanks to the sprouting of vibrant and highly original alternative media personalities, the dynamism of the Internet, and—perhaps equally important—the sheer unsustainability of a regime of corporate media lies and imbecilic distractions when confronted with unyielding truths. Yes, the system is usually its own worst enemy. Its media reflects its antisocial values, its rotten priorities, and decrepitude. Let's put it out of its misery once and for all.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Associate Editor Billy Bob is a dedicated anti-imperialist activist and blogger. He hosts the Blowback roundatable. You can reach him at his Facebook page HERE.

Patrice Greanville is this publication's founder and editor-in-chief.

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Prospects for World War 3 (Reposted)

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ALEKS
Black Mountain Analysis

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Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker

NOTE: Aleks produced this piece back in February of 2023, approximately one year into the war. His predictions were reasonably on target. Obviously, given the number of variables, no one could have foreseen the actual way in which the conflict developed. But because the analysis contains many aspects that have preserved their value entirely, we are reposting it here again.

Map of Ukraine - vector illustration. The Eastern third —including Crimea—is now largely in Russian hands.

Prospects for World War 3 – Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker

A strategic picture of the events of a collapsing Ukraine and the end of NATO

ALEKS

FEB 04, 2023

Introduction

Recently there has been a lot of talk about where the escalating spiral will end. Will it evolve to World War III? Will there be a nuclear war? What are the determining factors? And what would indicate World War III is imminent? I’ll go through these questions in detail from a strategic perspective.

But, before I do, I’d like to write another short dedication to an author and analyst, that I value very much. I’m talking about Andrei Raevsky, better known under his pseudonym “The Vineyard Saker”. I’ve read his blog regularly since 2015, and before that for years occasionally. I learned in this time a lot from him with regards to strategic and comprehensive thinking. This is what he does wonderfully. Unfortunately, but understandably, he decided to stop maintaining and writing his blog. Thank you, Andrei, for everything, for recommending my blog and for all the analysis I/we have been able to read for years and even decades. All the best for you and your family going forward.

So, will there be a third world war? I would say yes, with absolute certainty. But there are a few questions left that need to be clarified before we start to panic. Personally, I see no need for panic…yet. But the following questions concern me:

When will WW3 break out?
Under which circumstances?
Which alliances will participate?
Where will the main battlefield be?
Ultimately: Will the big three powers directly clash on a large scale against each other?

I don’t have answers to these questions. But you can see that these are strategic questions as opposed to operational questions, such as those we are currently considering in Ukraine. I don’t think that the operational questions, such as whether 100 tanks will be supplied to Ukraine, or even 200 fighter jets, will decide anything about the likelihood of World War III.

What I hope to do here is to help readers develop their strategic thinking so that they can see past the short-sighted operational questions I mentioned before.

Preconditions

We at BMA developed a strategic and operational picture that is still valid. In fact, we can say that from my last operational update there is nothing to add. I can go even further. I see now, step by step, all the major and well-known podcast analysts jumping on my train. All are now talking not of big arrows, but of methodical grinding on several theatres to put as much pressure as needed on the Ukrainians so they can collapse. That’s perfectly fine for me.

For people who haven’t read my analysis yet, I strongly recommend reading the following articles in this sequence:

Further weapon shipments

Let’s start with weapons shipments. We will see later in this article that I assume that the war has escalated far more than both sides would have ever thought. From my personal standpoint, I assume, and it could have been observed in my former articles, that Russia planned with escalations up to the destruction of the third iteration of the “Ukrainian” army.

First iteration:

Destruction of the initial Ukrainian army (until April 2022).
Second iteration:

Destruction of the Ukrainian army, equipped with Western light equipment designed to deter Russia, until the “third iteration” has been trained and equipped abroad. The second iteration had been defeated by the end of July 2022.
Third iteration:

Soldiers trained abroad and equipped with all the weapons that countries with old Soviet stockpiles could have spared.

Destroyed by the time that General Gerasimov took command of the SMO (11^th of January 2023).
Fourth iteration:

This army consists of two components, intended to make sure that this goal will be achieved:
1. Professional army.
  
  Soldiers who were mobilized a few months ago and trained abroad will comprise the professional part of this army. These are mainly “ideologically confused, highly motivated” people. There is also one single word for this. Nazism.
  
  These soldiers will be trained on new Western weapons and equipment. There is a high probability that the initial plan from a few months ago was to use them for another offensive, to produce another “defeat” for the Russians before the total collapse of Ukraine. But it looks as if events have overtaken the plan.
  
  There certainly is no room any longer for any kind of offensive. These units will most likely be used for operational mobile defense. In other words, they will be used where it hurts the most in order to slow down the collapse. See BMA’s five theatres. The big question is, will this army be used wisely on the West side of the Dnieper in a mobile way to inflict the most possible damage on the Russians, or will it simply be fed into the Donbass meatgrinder and be buried along with the Ukrainian state?
2. Forced conscript army:
  
  As far as I can remotely judge it, I have the feeling that all “ideologically confused highly motivated Ukrainians” are “depleted” or in the process of being depleted within the fourth iteration fire brigade. See above.
  
  One of the reasons of course is that the government’s propaganda, i.e., the Ukrainian army had almost no losses, has fallen apart. It is now very well known within Ukraine that everyone who is drafted will either die, be seriously wounded or, in the best case, become a Russian POW.
  
  There won’t be anything else left, because one of the goals of the Russians is the full physical annihilation of the Ukrainian army. Which will be achieved by summer 2023. At that time everyone will be dead, wounded, or captured. There may be some hardcore “ideologically confused and highly motivated” people that continue fighting, but they will only act on their own, not as part of an organized military.
  
  Having said that, we can come back to the conscripts. Since no one wants to die for a lost cause (they know now that it is over and only the dying is left to be done), Ukrainian men are now hiding or otherwise trying to evade the draft. There are now mobile “conscription” teams scouring every city to catch men under any circumstances. The goal of depleting every able-bodied male Ukrainian is still active.
  
  Well, these unmotivated people (to put it mildly) will be thrown into trenches to buy time. They have no other prospects than to either be killed or, if they are lucky, captured by the Russians.

This is the fourth iteration of the Ukrainian army. The last stand, so to say. One component should buy time by trading blood, the other component should inflict damage on Russia.

This is the last iteration. There are no more human resources left after this “Volkssturm” mobilization to carry on the fight. As I pointed out several times, Ukraine will experience this collapse by summer 2023.

What does it have to do with further weapons deliveries?

Well, the war can only be continued if these last Ukrainians have armored vehicles. The “confused” Ukrainians still believe in a victory with Western equipment. They wouldn’t continue the fight or charge Russian positions on their bare feet, without armored assistance.

The following circumstances apply:

The whole Soviet stocks of NATO and Ukraine are depleted.
The biggest part of the Ukrainian manpower is depleted.

So a new “Frankenstein” army is being built with all kinds of NATO stuff, to keep the Ukrainians motivated to die for the West. Frankenstein, because it is an incompatible mix of everything, a mix that has no battle value without combined arms ability.

Considering the current state of the Ukrainian army, nothing can help. In fact, it doesn’t matter anymore what the West is delivering. It has zero impact on the outcome of the war. The delivery of Western weapons is only a motivator and enabler for the Ukrainians to keep up the fight until the last “mobilizable” men are killed or captured. The goal will be fully achieved.

Moreover, it will mean far more dead Russians, since the prolongation of the war means far more dead Russians. Which is NOT good.

Red lines

What about red lines? There are red lines indeed. But I don’t think that Russia is measuring them by the amount and quality of tanks or planes that are being sent by the West.

I’m personally convinced that the red lines were agreed by Sergei Naryshkin and William Burns in Ankara on November 14, 2022. And these red lines, from my point of view, concern the control and security of territory after the war.

In fact, I assume that all kinds of weapons deliveries would be “tolerated”, but not with pleasure, by the Russians as long as there is no risk of lost territory. And Ukraine as a whole, except for places that could be negotiated away to other countries, is being considered as Russian territory.

Why is it accepted? The Ukrainian army is mostly defeated. Russia is fighting against the fourth and last iteration. The best people are already dead or have fled. And there is another major reason. I will cover that in the chapter “Wounded animal”.

The last point I want to cover in this chapter is Germany. Germany of course is being forced to send its tanks to Ukraine. It will have no military consequences, but the calculation is that Russia would escalate and break up relations with Germany for all times because of history. The United States desperately wants to destroy the relations between Germany and Russia forever. So, Germany would depend on America and wouldn’t benefit from the new BRICS/SCO-oriented multipolar world order.

Here are some personal thoughts and assumptions:

Germany wants Ukraine to collapse ASAP, so they come out of the hellish situation on which they are forced into by America.
Russia knows this and keeps backchannel doors open to Germany to manage the transition away from the American grip. I assume the tank deliveries won’t change much if there are no further escalations. However, if NATO troops are part of the escalations, we are in WW3.

The West

Nevertheless, we mustn’t forget that the West has been the dominant power for decades. So, of course, it accumulated a lot of wealth and a large military. And now we come to the problem. Russia, more or less, openly worked on implementing the new multipolar world order around BRICS and the SCO. The Americans were aware of this. At the same time the American empire, carrying on the work of other empires before it, has been working for the destruction of Russia. Therefore, the strategy is to turn all former allies and Soviet States around Russia against them and then trigger the internal collapse in Russia.

Well, both Russia and America activated their corresponding plans in 2022. Everyone wants something, but only one side will prevail. The winner in Ukraine will achieve its geopolitical goals. At least that’s what the parties believe. As of now, it should be clear to the politicians and secret services of all Western states that the war is over. Ukraine will soon fall, and with it the single-polar American-centric world order.

Russia won’t be destroyed.

Goals

What now? Well, the Americans know very well about their fate since their plan in Ukraine failed. This doesn’t need to be the end of the USA. They can become normal and powerful members of the future multipolar world order, sitting at the table with the other great powers. I think there are two possible outcomes.

Exactly this scenario. America becomes a “normal” multipolar power at the table with others. A single new world system emerges, which is controlled by an organization and not by states. Either a new kind of UN/League of Nations, or a fundamental reconstruction of the UN and purge of “Western” “influence” and “Influencer”. Hence, the “De-Westernization” of the world.
America could decide to stay an “opposite-pole”, against the multipolar world order. Then we would have two systems at the same time, competing against each other. The rest of the West and the BRICS/SCO states, competing and struggling for the contested bloc-free markets, until there are no bloc-free nations left.

Unfortunately, I assume that option two will prevail. Which is the worse option for the world and humankind.

What are the goals of such an America (The West)?

Completely draining power from all its colonies and making them completely dependent on the West. To secure markets and territory for the future struggle against the powers of the Heartland. At the same time weakening the Heartland, since Europe is an integral part of it, with a huge potential if managed correctly.
The depletion of the weapons stocks of Europe has the positive side effect that all these weapons will need to be replenished. Since the industrial production costs rose sky-high because of the blowing up of the gas pipelines (what a coincidence) and many other self-defeating reasons, Europe will struggle to reproduce these stocks themselves. The rationale is that they will come to America and beg for “cheap” weapons.

In fact, America is raping Europe and is forcing Europe to come back to them and beg for more. Perversion. Or how does Scott Ritter say?

Wounded animal

Most likely the West didn’t expect that the war would develop as it did. I wrote several times about it. First, they expected that Ukraine would fall within days and then they would organize a guerrilla war. Then, after they saw that Russia was not waging a strategic doctrinal offensive but a SMO, they thought the West would win.

But none of it is true. Russia did not win within days, but Russia will not lose. In fact, Russia is defeating the West, its armies, and its economies in Ukraine. Who would have thought that?

America knows very well what its new role will be, so they are preparing for it by making Europe totally dependent on them. America is deindustrializing Europe and draining it for the next decade. Not only Europe, but all other colonies as well, including Canada, Australia, Japan, South Korea, etc.

Here is the problem. Since America is well aware of its impending downfall from a superpower to a normal but powerful nation, it struggles with a certain syndrome. When everything is well, all are happy and are competing to claim the success for themselves. When things go south, then the opposite applies. Everyone tries to blame the other. Which is currently the case in America. I will write a separate article about America. So, I’ll go over it quickly here.

There is not one single power that determines the course of the United States. The ruling oligarchy (the politicians are only “sponsored executioners” of the oligarchy) doesn’t know exactly which way to go. There are powers that want to choose option 1, away from the empire and towards multipolarity and there are also powers who don’t want to go down without a fight. Unfortunately, the majority of the establishment or oligarchy are supporters of the second option. And here we are. America is acting exactly as a wounded wild animal. It is biting, fighting, and scratching everyone around it. This is extremely dangerous for humankind. One mistake, and everyone dies.

This is what we see in Ukraine. Now that everything short of nuclear weapons will be delivered, what can be handled by the few capable Ukrainians left? And it would be idiotic for Russia to make a big deal out of it. It will be managed. Escalation management. Yes, a few thousand Russians more will die. Or if you count the Ukrainians as Russians, a few tens or hundreds of thousands more. But still, the world will survive.

It is up to Russia and the other civilized people to handle the rage of this wounded animal and contain it so we won’t need to use nuclear weapons or kick-off WW3. That’s why Russia is taking many hard punches without responding.

Challenge

The challenge is for Russia to win the war in Ukraine without escalating too much, and to not trigger any reactions from the West that could still trigger WW3 over Ukraine.

Currently there is no potential for such an escalation if we consider only the Ukrainian and the Russian armies. The Ukrainian army will soon (by the end of the summer 2023) be gone. But the Americans could decide to sacrifice the European armies against Russia as another proxy force. Without American involvement.

It is not impossible, even though I think that the probability is very low.

Think of Polish and other European countries sending their own troops to defend Western Ukraine, Odessa or Kiev.

People don’t want it? There is not such a mood? There are no weapons? Who cares!

Create enough false flag operations within the EU and NATO, activate a large media campaign, and you will have fanatical Europeans cheering for war and volunteering to march on Moscow.

Such a scenario needs to be avoided. It is called “escalation management”.

Why did I write that Americans would use the Europeans as a proxy force? Well, Europe is no longer interesting for America. They are pivoting to the new hot spot for trade: Asia. Europe is done. It can be used like a used condom, to further weaken Russia. Throwing old stuff and human waves against the Russians is creating losses for Russia. Both in people and economically. Learn about opportunity costs. These are costs or revenues that you did not incur since you chose to do something less favorable. Hence, Russia could prosper by developing trade and relationships with the “New World”. But Russia would instead need to fully mobilize and put a huge part of its resources, money, and welfare into the military and war. This while other market actors are exploiting the absence of Russia on the world markets.

Horror scenario? Yes, but I don’t believe that it will materialize.

Indicators

But we need to discuss it. We are talking about a wounded wild animal. Its actions are totally unpredictable. And it is always doubling down. So nothing can be excluded. We should be aware of it. And that’s why I decided to write down some important indicators, which can reveal when a threshold has been crossed, where there is no return.

Overt or covert mobilization efforts within the big European countries.
Overt or covert transition to a wartime economy/production within the big European countries.
If the number of mobilized troops of Russia exceeds more than one and a half million men. I’m talking only about the mobilized. Not about the already standing conscript and professional peacetime army.
Vladimir Putin’s calm demeanor vanishes for a long time. In fact, he would be visually very angry and his rhetoric would reach levels never seen before. See his behavior from November 2021 until February 2022 for a small sample of what we would see.
Active and official participation of NATO troops in hostilities against Russia.
Officially breaking off of relations between Russia and major NATO countries. Withdrawing of diplomatic missions and personnel, etc.
Total severing of all economic relations.
Russia withdrawing from many non-crucial markets without visible reasons.
Russia withdrawing from Syria.
Overt or covert full mobilization in Russia.

Withdrawal of the Americans from important and major regions without a clear reason. Say, a sudden withdrawal of the Americans from the Middle East, including its navy. The Americans would try to bring as much equipment and as many troops as possible out of harm’s way before the Russian barrages start to hit American bases worldwide.

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Important factors

As I said, I want to be honest and this is only my assumption… It is too late for triggering WW3:

The Ukrainian human potential is almost gone. And soon it WILL BE GONE.
The Europeans have been demilitarized. And they will be demilitarized further until this is over. There is not much which could be used to actually fight the Russians.
The Americans would withdraw its equipment to America or Asia. This is an important region. Europe lost its significance, and with it the obligation to NATO.
Article 5 says that the allies should consult on whether and how to support the member under attack. The decision of the individual member states could be to send medical equipment or simply to do nothing. This applies to America as well. America wouldn’t do much for Eastern European states. And it certainly would NOT fight Russia over them. I’m not yet sure about central and west Europe, since America will need them for reindustrializing their resources and industries.
Until this war is over, NATO will only be four letters on a piece of paper. To be honest, I didn’t expect it that way. I will point out my assumption, how NATO could be dismembered, in the “strategic outlook” chapter. But as it turns out, the NATO military branch will soon be done and gone. Left will be a club of people, who are meeting regularly to issue some threats out of a parallel universe in the direction of Russia. As I said, I’ll go deeper into this later.

I want you all to keep in mind that the ultimate goal of Russia is to secure its strategic security in the Western direction by forcing the West to accept the new draft treaty for European security. Either voluntarily or by force. Force can be military, economic, or revolutionary. Don’t forget that part. In case of failure, we all are simply going to die. I pointed out the process and the reasons in detail in my analysis of Phase 3.

As I pointed out in the quoted article, whoever is cheering for Russia to lose is cheering for his own death.

The lynchpin – Odessa

The strategic lynchpin that determines whether there will be a Ukraine going forward or not, is Odessa. With Odessa, Ukraine could sustain some kind of economy by accessing the Black Sea. It would probably be enough to continue an existence as a classic American failed state, like Libya or some others that I won’t name so as to not insult the people living there.

If Russia takes Odessa or defeats the Ukrainian army somewhere else so that Odessa could no longer be defended, then the war is over. Odessa is more important to Ukraine than Kiev itself.

Odessa is also one of the strategic goals named by President Vladimir Putin, before he started the SMO. Read them in detail here. One of these goals is to bring justice to what happened in Odessa in 2014, when some fifty Russians were burned to death by Ukrainian nationalists. It is a personal goal of Vladimir Putin to take the city and seek justice for these deaths. Here are more reasons:

Odessa is a strategic city. Without it, there could never be something like “Ukraine” again. It wouldn’t be economically sustainable.
It would give Russia the control of a big part of the Black Sea. In fact, Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea couldn’t be contested anymore. Not only not from the Sea, but also not from the land or air.
Russia would have a deep outpost within the east flank of NATO, which is crucial. Think of radars, air bases, air defenses, missile bases, fleet bases, marshalling grounds, etc.
Odessa is a Russian city. Not just any Russian city. It is a highly important Russian city. It was built by a very popular Russian emperor, Katherine the Great. Moreover, it is a hero city. (See WW2 hero cities).
Ukraine and the West will never accept peace with Russia as long as Russia holds territory that the West claims as well, such as Kherson, Crimea, etc. If the Russians would leave Odessa to Ukraine, under some kind of treaty, there would always be the danger that Ukraine rearms and uses Odessa and its access to the Black Sea to harm Russia. As we all know, and Russia knows even better, the West breaks ALL treaties that it signs.
Odessa is the last step before Russia can reunify with Transnistria. This is a problem which certainly needs to be solved. And it needs to be solved now. And it will be solved now.

In fact, you can take these arguments and flipside them, then you have the reasons why NATO (America) has a strategic interest to take Odessa. The arguments are essentially similar to these, why the West desperately wants to have Crimea. To be straightforward, Crimea and Odessa are by far more important to the West than Kiev or any other region of Ukraine. That’s why we always hear the talk about an offensive to retake Crimea. The question is, will the West have a strategic advantage against Russia or will Russia have a strategic advantage against NATO. The answer is obvious.

Considering all this, there is no chance in the world that Russia won’t take Odessa. No matter what agreements would be proposed, or what treaties signed, or whatever. Maybe there was a moment where it would have been possible. In Phase 1. MAYBE still in Phase 2. But since August 2022, all this is gone. There has been too much sacrifice to not go all the way through. In fact, it would be a huge insult in the face of all of the people who died on the Russian side, both civilian and military.

Nevertheless, there will be an Odessa moment. The moment when it is clear to everyone that Odessa can’t be defended. I’ll give you here an incomplete list of cases that could be considered as “Odessa moments”:

Siege of Odessa.
Collapse of Ukrainian armed forces.
Collapse of the Ukrainian state.
Complete destruction of the Ukrainian army.
Complete surrender of the Ukrainian army.
Cutting Odessa off further north, e.g., Transnistria.
An approach to Odessa by the Russian army with no troops left to defend it from the South.

This will be the most dangerous moment in the war. It is the moment where the West will need to decide whether it will surrender Ukraine or double down and intervene with Western troops. This is essentially the question over whether WW3 will happen or not.

Whatever decision the West might take, it is insignificant for Russia, for the aforementioned reasons. Russia would take it, no matter what the escalation threat of the West would be. Even if it would mean the end of the human race. There is no scenario where Russia would not take Odessa and the world would not go up in flames. None whatsoever.

Chickens in Odessa

And here we come to the problem. I described this scenario already in one of my operational updates (See here).

The Americans have the habit to go into a place and claim it forever, only through their presence. The rationale is that if they are there, no-one would ever dare to contest that, for example to avoid WW3.

This is essentially true, and it works well all over the world. See Serbia (our province, Kosovo) and East-Syria. Of course, there are many more examples. I call it the “Chicken game”.

Now, why has the 101^st airborne division of the US Army been deployed to Eastern Europe — to Romania? My personal assumption is that they are waiting for the Odessa moment. If the Odessa moment happens, the US government (better, the US oligarchy) will have the opportunity to move the 101^st into Odessa.

Why would they do that? The 101^st is unable to fend off a Russian attack. It potentially could buy time until the US is able to mobilize a large force in Romania to relieve them. The truth is that such a force doesn’t exist and couldn’t relieve anything. Nowadays, Russia has conventional deep strike abilities with hypersonic missiles that are unstoppable. The whole European rear is undefendable. The Americans are not idiots, and their military planners know this.

So why the 101^st? Well, they can be quickly deployed with helicopters and create facts on the ground. In fact they can create a big “chicken game” right in Odessa. This would create two problems for the Russians:

If now the Russians attack Odessa and the American troops, then they would have triggered WW3 from the Western perspective. This is mainly for the civilian audience worldwide to measure how a world war has started and how it could have been avoided. No one will ask why the Americans have moved in after the first missiles start flying. They might ask who shot first, but it doesn’t matter. All would die anyway in nuclear fire.
As I pointed out already above, Odessa is a crucial and wonderful historical city for Russia. In fact, Russia doesn’t want to fight in such cities, Russia wants to preserve them. If the Americans would move in, Russia would be forced to destroy Odessa to get them out of there. Again, it doesn’t matter anymore at such a point.

Will this “Chicken Plan” be activated by the Americans? I really don’t know. If they assume that Russia would back down if they move in, then it could happen. But such information would be wrong and the escalation would start. I personally don’t believe yet, judging by the political climate, that it would be triggered. But this assessment could change anytime. For now, I don’t want to issue any warnings.

Provided that such a “Chicken Plan” would be triggered by the Americans, there is still the question of which strategy the Russians would choose to get them out of there. Here are some possibilities:

There could be a very short timeframe for a diplomatic solution, but none that would leave Odessa in Western hands. More likely, some kind of geopolitical trade somewhere else to preserve humanity. By short, I mean no longer than 48 hours. The Russian army can’t wait for American armoured brigades/divisions to marshal in Romania to feed them into Ukraine to relieve the paratroopers (101^st) in Odessa.

A direct attack on Odessa by simply levelling it to the ground with everything inside, to not give the Americans time to catch up to their paratroopers. A painful solution.
Increasing the pain dial for America all over the world to force them to voluntarily withdraw. Hence, sinking the US Navy (which could be triggered anytime by Russia with her long-range hypersonic missiles), or bombing all the poorly protected US bases worldwide with a focus on manpower and equipment and the destruction of the whole NATO infrastructure in Europe.

There is nothing that could be done against it, since there is currently no technology that can shoot down hypersonic missiles. This strategy is only limited by the number of available missiles. I’m not sure how many of these have been produced to date.

You see, it would be much preferable if the West simply accepts the return of a Russian city to Russia. I want to be straightforward. I don’t want to see either an Odessa moment or a Russian attempt to expel the chickens.

One more remark. Scott Ritter also is referring frequently to the “Odessa moment”. I only want to highlight that we have here a similar concept, but it is not the same. As you surely have figured out on your own.

Strategic outlook

Basics

In this chapter I want to present a few strategic considerations.

Poland and its options

I think first there were considerations to intervene directly in Western Ukraine through Poland. Not to fight the Russians, but to secure territory. And I also think that President Putin made it crystal clear in one of his early speeches during the war that such actions would trigger lightning responses. Most likely he was talking about a hypersonic rain over Poland. These intentions died down afterwards. Nevertheless, it seems that Poland is still eager to seize some parts of Ukraine that Poland considers former Polish territories.

This, of course, is an interesting fact.

Why?

Well, Russia wants to force the West to implement the new draft treaty for European security. Hence, to push back NATO influence and military infrastructure in Eastern Europe. In former articles, I presented the economic axes which could trigger a European political collapse. Here, I’m going to present some strategies on a geopolitical scale.

Poland is openly talking about taking former Polish territories. Russia is highlighting this fact in the media. Even Dimitry Medvedev often highlights it on his Telegram channel. But apart from highlighting it, there don’t seem to be many objections. In fact, I believe that it would have some advantages for Russia if Poland would indeed take the Lvov oblast. First, see the map.

Russia could indeed allow Poland to take the Lviv oblast marked above. It is an oblast that is highly committed to and associated with Stepan Bandera ideology. They are deeply anti-Russian and one would struggle to call them Russians or former Russians. In fact, taking, appeasing, and governing it would be a burden to Russia. It will be a burden for Poland as well, but they want it.

The big advantage is not about governing or appeasing it. No, the big advantage is that it would trigger major tensions within the EU and NATO, especially between Poland and the other major EU countries like Germany, France, and Italy. I remember a comment from the German chancellor Olaf Scholz in 2022. Reportedly, he privately said to the Poles that if they insist on reparation payments from Germany, that Germany could remember about former German territories that are currently part of Poland. If Poland takes Lviv, then this dispute would escalate.

Tensions in the EU and NATO absolutely contribute to the implementation of the new draft treaty for European security. Not voluntarily, but by diplomatic force. So I truly can imagine that such a move could take place if the Polish really want it, but in agreement with Russia, not against Russia’s will.

Here we come to two major constraints:

The oblasts north of Lvov mustn’t be touched by Poland. These are buffer and security zones for Belarus.
The oblasts to the south of Lvov also mustn’t be touched by Poland. These are the geopolitical gates to the Eastern European states. So to say, land bridges through states that are not controlled by the West. West Ukraine (to be done), Hungary (will break free as soon as the land bridge is established) and Serbia (the same).

If Poland were to claim these territories, there would be a lightning response by President Putin. I think the message was clear to Poland.

I explained it already in my analysis of Phase 3. It is possible that West Ukraine (minus Lvov) won’t join Russia. Who knows? But it certainly will be taken, demilitarized, and denazified. Afterwards, it could be released in some kind of pseudo-independence, with Russian military bases on its territory to secure this state. But this “pseudo-independent country” would be crucial because it would be Russia’s gate to Eastern Europe. Its land bridge.

Hungary, Serbia and the end of NATO

And here we come straight to these land bridges and trade routes.

Before I begin, I just want to remind you about my articles “Economics and Empires 1” and “Economics and Empires 2”. Essentially, Serbia and Hungary currently are being held hostage by the West. Since they are landlocked countries that are also hostages to America, but more submissive hostages than other European nations, Serbia and Hungary can’t develop independent foreign politics or foreign trade. If they don’t do what they are told, many things can happen to them apart from military action:

Blackmailing.
Intimidation.
Blockade of trade routes.
Denial of critical supplies.
Closure of air space.

And all this without openly admitting it, but by inventing reasons. The West loves to use Croatia for trade restrictions against Serbia into the European direction. Croatia then invents some reasons why Serbian lorries aren’t allowed to drive through Croatia. And similar stuff.

That’s the reason why Serbia has been forced these many years to say that it wants to join the EU, even though the people don’t. Such fealty is required by the West, to not press Serbia down again.

And here comes the war in Ukraine and “West-Ukraine” into play. If Russia manages to secure the land bridge to Hungary in Western Ukraine, then the whole house of cards built on blackmailing Eastern Ukraine falls apart. Russia would have through Hungary, which faces problems like Serbia’s even though Hungary is part of the EU and NATO, direct access to Serbia.

It would allow Serbia and Hungary to freely choose with whom they want to trade and have relations. Hence, the whole heartland would be open to these countries, including the SCO and BRICS states. The West couldn’t threaten these countries any longer with blocking them from trade and supplies, and if military threats are employed, Russia could deploy troops or provide unlimited military assistance through the corridor.

However, I could imagine troops only in Serbia because it is a brother state. This would be a huge part of the solution for the Kosovo problem, which is a Western-occupied province of Serbia. Today, NATO can threaten Serbia with bombing in the case that Serbia is protecting its citizens in Kosovo. If Serbia would have direct land and air access to Russia, things would be completely different. Apart from that, Russia left the imperial path with the Soviet Union, which is good! Russia won’t spend blood and money to maintain a remote empire anymore.

Exactly this would be the death of both the EU and NATO. Why? Look at my second map.

The black lines are the new main trade routes with the initial “breakaway” countries, Serbia and Hungary. They in fact are waiting for these routes to be opened. As long as they aren’t open, both countries need to endure massive intimidation by the West.
The red lines represent potential new trade routes between Russia (BRICS/SCO) and single Eastern European countries. When these nations see how Serbia and Hungary can develop independent policy and trade, ever more European countries would join this model and break free from the Western influence/blackmailing/colonialism. As soon this begins to unravel, it would be the end of NATO and the EU. Combine this with the economic pressure, due to the self-sanctions and to Poland’s possible seizure of Lvov, and NATO and the EU is finished. Of course no one should imagine that such a centrifugal process would be finished overnight. We are talking about a few years.

You see no lines to Romania? Well, Romania is by far the most submissive colony without a single bit of an own will. I don’t know how much it could free itself, even with land access to Russia.

You might want to argue that some of these countries (Croatia, Greece, etc.) already have access to the sea. Yes, but they have no land access to Russia. In theory, they could do independent trade. But in case of military escalation, they would be on their own without the land bridge to Russia.

Russia’s steamroller

There is something we mustn’t forget. Russia is not yet mobilized in any reasonable sense. I’m not talking about full mobilization. Russia isn’t even partially mobilized yet. But remember one thing: if the West would force Russia to switch its economy to a full war economy, her society also goes into full war mode and if her losses exceed a reasonable number, then the West will get what it got after Napoleon and Hitler. A Russian society, army and war machine that can’t be simply “switched off” after it reconquers Ukraine. If you have a million or even two-million-man army standing on the Polish border, then this army will do what their ancestors did. They will march to Berlin or even beyond and put an end to the new threat to Russian statehood.

We haven’t reached this point yet. And if there won’t be an escalation which would include Western troops IN Ukraine, we won’t ever reach this point. Nevertheless, if the West would escalate with Western troops in Ukraine, this point could be reached easily.

As NATO is currently demilitarizing itself on a large scale and soon will only exist as four letters on a piece of paper, you can imagine what will stop the Russian army on its way to Berlin. Nothing.

Is Russia powerful enough to do that? This question is totally insignificant. Remember what happens if Russia loses militarily. Given the state of NATO, there is not much they could do against such an event if Russia fights doctrinally. Ukraine represents a civil war between Russians. President Putin said repeatedly that he still considerers the Ukrainians as brothers and Russians. That’s the reason he takes care that the civilians suffer as little as possible within such a war environment. You should not even try to think about what weapons and strategies would be applied against a hostile nation like Poland or (fill in the blank). Certainly not a slow grinding to only destroy the enemy army.

Nor does it matter how loudly people would scream “ARTICLE 5”. This is not a magic spell that would make the Russian army vanish. You think there would be a nuclear retaliation by the United States? Nope! Europe is a used condom for the Americans. The new cool guys are in Asia. America will never ever put itself at risk for a used condom. Pardon, for Europe.

Again, I don’t see such a scenario happening. But nothing is certain.

Now we are coming closer to my conclusion.

China

Initially I said that there will be a WW3. And yes, I think there will be a WW3. But I doubt, at least for now, that it will be triggered in Europe. And I also doubt that its main battlefield will be in Europe, although there will be a battle in Europe.

The big battle of our time will be in Asia and in the Pacific. And not today but in 2030. The battle will be about throwing the United States out of a region where it doesn’t belong. China is preparing two strategies.

The best-case scenario for the world would be if BRICS and the SCO bring the American imperial economy down in such a way that it couldn’t sustain its empire and network of military bases any longer. Thereby it would withdraw under an economic and social collapse from its bases abroad. Don’t get me wrong. I do not wish the American people their downfall. Absolutely not! I like Americans (the people, not the imperial parasite) as much as I do anyone else. I wish for the American people that their country comes out stronger through the hard times that are ahead. That they manage to become a normal nation among others and that every single American becomes prosperous. This with normal trade relations with other nations, without the need to bomb them to get good trade conditions.
Option two is war. Accordingly, China is currently building the biggest military the world has ever seen. But it is not ready yet in terms of quantity or professionalism/experience. But it certainly will be within the next few years, 2030 at the latest. Russia pinning down the empire in Europe and depleting it is the biggest gift China can get. That’s why China will do what it can to sustain this status. Therefore, China is helping Russia to circumvent most of the sanctions.

And Russia is more than returning the favor. She is buying time for China with her blood as a side effect of her existential struggle against NATO.

Well, I will stop here since I’m planning to write a separate article about the struggle in the Pacific region. But please keep the following in mind. I can make more or less accurate predictions for the timeframe of one year (operational). I can explain the shape, probabilities and boundaries of a strategy, which covers up to three years. The actual implementation could look completely different. And anything one writes (including me) that makes predictions for a time beyond three years (vision), is simply a fairy tale.

Nevertheless, I’ll try to write such a fairy tale about the Pacific region in another article. But I’ll mark it as an assumption and also as one possible scenario between infinite possible scenarios. Hence, you’ll need to consider it to learn backgrounds but apart from that you should take it with a grain of salt.

Conclusion

Okay, we reached the end of the article. I’ll try to sum it up and make a conclusion.

The question that this article seeks to answer is about the prospect of a World War developing from the Ukraine crisis. I see a probability of 90% that the Ukraine war will not evolve into a World War. Unfortunately, 90% is still far from certain! There is still a possibility that the West will try to push proxy forces (Poland, Romania, Germany?) into Ukraine to create a bigger “local”/continental conflict, while the Americans focus on Asia. Here we are at 5%. And above that, there is a probability of 5% that the United States will directly intervene (See Odessa moment, etc.), which certainly would evolve into an instant World War.

Peace after Ukrainian army is defeated (90%)
Developing war between Russia and European proxies within Ukraine/Europe (5%)
American intervention à World War 3 (5%).

That is, of course, still too high. We are talking about the human race.

Indeed, there are two major determining factors which will decide whether there will be an escalation or not:

The “Odessa moment” and the “Western Ukraine” moment.

Odessa moment:

The West will try to do what it can to avoid giving Odessa to the Russians. This is for strategic military considerations. If the Russians have it, they will have a strategic advantage and leverage over NATO. If NATO has it, the same applies to NATO against Russia.
“Western Ukraine” moment:

Here we are talking about Russia’s land access to Hungary and thereby to Serbia. Essentially, if Russia gets it, NATO and the EU are done. History. Not instantly, but within a reasonable number of years.

I can only leave you here and say that when one of these moments is imminent, start praying to whomever you are praying to.

Nevertheless, I want to end this article on a positive note. Because I AM positive. Everything depends on the decisions of the oligarchs in the United States. Are they willing to let Ukraine go or not, when they are threatened with global annihilation? These guys are not idiots. Sure, they want to possess power over others, but in the event of a nuclear war they and their children will possess nothing. Exactly as everyone else.

Even though they seem to have no reverse gear and they are always doubling down, in this particular case I assume that they would do the right thing and vacate Ukraine. Why is there still a possibility of 10% of escalation? Well, Russia (BRICS) is engaged in escalation management, to provide a safe way for the Americans to transition into a normal state.

And here we come to the fact that not even the Americans and their oligarchs can control everything. It is possible that a crazy group of people, either within America or within Europe, could suddenly do something extremely stupid when they feel that the end is near. Think of Poles or the Baltic statelets or some extremely crazy American neoconservatives. The good thing is that I don’t give more than a 10% chance to such an idiotic chain of events.

Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com for inquiries)

Lili News 029

In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.

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Biden’s senility, and ours

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SPENGLER
Asia Times
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Biden’s senility, and ours

By SPENGLER JULY 13, 2024

We have met senility, and he is us.

It isn’t just poor Joe Biden who has aged ungracefully. The wealthy nations of the world are aging and the consequences will be far more painful than the passing humiliation of one Western leader.

Instead of cringing at the president’s agonizing attempts to prove his mental competence, we should look hard in the mirror. Dante couldn’t have invented a denizen of the Inferno who better metonymizes the senescence of the West.

Without an unprecedented (and practically impossible) sea-change in fertility, the working-age population of the high-income countries of the world (above US$16,000 in per capita GDP) will shrink by 20% during the present century. This will have disruptive economic consequences over time. It is already having disruptive consequences in global strategy.

Countries without children are indifferent to their future and apathetic about their present.

As Grant Newsham reported on this site July 9, Japan failed to recruit half the military personnel it required last year. Colonel Newsham wrote: “The JSDF has never fought an actual war, but it suffered a crushing defeat last year – missing recruitment targets by 50%. The year before it was a 35% miss. And for years it has had 20% shortfalls. Thus, JSDF is something of an old, undermanned and overworked force.”

The Japanese don’t want to fight. Neither do the Germans, whose armed forces have shrunk since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The Europeans and Japanese don’t want to fight. Why should they? Who will lay down his life for future generations, if there aren’t going to be any future generations?

In 2015, the Gallup Poll asked citizens of more than sixty countries whether they were willing to fight for their country. Japan came in dead last with an affirmative rate of just 11%. By no coincidence, Japan ranks close to the bottom in terms of fertility. Israeli Jews, with a fertility rate of three children per female, are the sole instance in the upper-right-hand quadrant of the chart below.

There is a strong relationship between fertility and fighting spirit among the world’s industrial nations.

The Ukraine war engages a few hundred thousand combat troops on the same land where millions fought during World War II. When the Soviets recaptured Kharkov in 1943, they threw 1.2 million men at the city and lost 200,000 of them. Russia has perhaps a hundredth of that number around the city today.

For all the demands on America’s NATO allies to bulk up their armies, the opposite is happening. Japan and Germany, the American allies with economies big enough to make a difference in defense spending, are quietly abandoning their commitments to higher defense outlays.

Japan pledged 43 trillion yen (US$272 billion) in defense spending through 2027, mainly in the form of procurement of US F35s and other expensive foreign hardware. But Japan calculated its procurement costs at an exchange rate of 108 yen to the dollar, compared with around 160 yen currently. That implies a drastic cut in actual procurement.

Germany’s budget negotiations last week, meanwhile, eliminated most of the planned increase in the German defense budget. “I got much less than I signed up for,” complained defense minister Boris Pistorius, “and that really aggravates me.” Germany’s armed forces have shrunk since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In 1989, the country had 12 combat-ready divisions. Today it can’t field one.

China shrank its military as fertility fell. Including reservists and paramilitary police, its armed forces total 4 million, versus 3.4 million active duty, reservists and civilian employees for the US, which has a quarter of China’s population.

But China has reduced the size of its land-based army by half while bulking up its missile capacity, navy and air force. Never again will China launch mass infantry attacks as during the Korean War. It has too few sons and cannot afford to expend them. It prefers the kind of war that’s conducted at a computer terminal in a bunker.

In this case, the Chinese are right. All the cajoling in the world won’t persuade the Europeans to sacrifice their depleted young manhood in land wars. America’s NATO allies will promise to spend more and recruit more soldiers, and their plans will dissolve before the ink is dry.

Japan already has an old-age dependency ratio of 50. That is, there are 50 elderly for every 100 working-age Japanese. Europe will get there by 2035, China by 2055, and the United States by 2075.

Japan has attempted to ease its way into a collective dotage by investing its savings overseas, building a net international asset position of $3.5 trillion (America has a net international position of negative $18 trillion).

China, with more planning and foresight, seeks to harness the labor of hundreds of millions of young workers in the Global South by building infrastructure and exporting its technology. The United States has no plan at all.

Spengler is channeled by David P Goldman. Follow him on X at @davidpgoldman

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Eric Zuesse’s Dispatches: Why the U.S. Regime and Its Colonies Hide the Reality from their Public

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Eric Zuesse
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Truman: probably the worst president ever, although in criminality he has robust competition.

Why the U.S. Regime and Its Colonies Hide the Reality from their Public

Eric Zuesse

The central reality ever since Harry S. Truman started the Cold War on 25 July 1945has been and is that the U.S. Government is determined to capture Russia in order to culminate and satisfy the craving that America’s billionaires (who control the U.S. Government via their ‘news’-media, think tanks, and other propaganda-agencies) have, to achieve the world’s first-ever all-encompassing and unchallengeable global empire (it’s called “U.S. hegemony”). Just months after Hitler died with that dream for Germany’s Government, Truman took up this banner for America’s Government. It’s too ugly a fact for the empire to allow the public to know. This fact explains not only the U.S. regime’s secretly protecting thousands of ‘former’ Nazis and hiring them for work against the Soviet Union (which had no similar program of hiring Nazis to work against the U.S.), but also the nearly a hundred post-WW2 coups and over 130 U.S. military invasions and occupations of countries throughout the world after WW2 — clearly the world’s most aggressive country ever, with the only possible exception having been Hitler’s Germany. But within the U.S. empire (the U.S. and its nearly 50 colonies), it is unknown because strictly prohibited to assert and even more strictly prohibited to document (think, for example, of the thousands of ‘classified’ documents from 1945 to 1955 — more than 65 years ago — that still are hidden by the U.S. Government and its satellites, and of the uncounted thousands of others that have been released only recently and so heavily expurgated as to be virtually uninterpretable). Why does the U.S. Congress not pass a law forcing the U.S. Government to publish ALL documents in its possession that are more than 30 years old? Why don’t its ‘allies’ do it? And they have the nerve to call themselves democracies! (And to call the nations they aim yet to conquer ‘autocracies’ or ‘dictatorships’!) Only fools can trust such hypocritical regimes, because these Governments lie about themselves vastly more than other Governments do — they have to do it in order to remain in power ‘democratically’ (meaning with elections).

The second fact they hide is the falsehood of the belief that a multi-Party Government is necessarily more democratic than a one-Party Government is. By hiding the falsehood of that allegation, they falsely allege that they themselves ARE a “democracy” because they have multiple Parties (representing different factions within the aristocracy). The ridiculousness of that falsehood is now painfully evident in the indisputable fact that in both the U.S. itself and its main colleague the UK, the two Parties that vie for power — Democrats versus Republicans, and Labour versus Conservative — are indistinguishable from one-another on the key ideological matters:each of the four Parties is the very embodiment of neoliberalism in domestic policies and of neoconservatism in foreign policies. The liberal billionaires and the conservative billionaires are solidly both neoliberal and neoconservative. And ALL billionaires are both neoliberals and neoconservatives (which is why our Governments are). That’s a “democracy”? It is instead a voracious empire, which is ruled on behalf of its billionaires — not of the public.

A regime of "democracy" that is all form and no substance. A cunning oligarchy that relishes empty symbols devoid of real power. Like Barack Obama.

317 miles away, Kotka Finland is now America’s fallback position, 507 miles away. This is real geostrategy, not the fake stuff (such as Annie Jacobsen’s potboiler Nuclear War: A Scenario, which provides an extremely unlikely scenario for WW3’s start, which presumes there’s no imperialistic intent on the part of America’s Government — it’s just nice people making mistakes — and so, her book is, to that extent, divorced from reality — this being the reality that is hidden throughout the U.S. empire).

A personal friend, a U.S. veteran, emailed me today saying,

Because of Ukraine funding which includes medical care for their wounded, American veterans are being denied health care.

Biden instituted a hiring freeze at VA facilities [see about that here] which has led to appointments for emergency critical care to be 6 months wait or longer which in some cases guarantees death.

I have personal experience in this area, as I am a disabled veteran and found this to be not only true but to get my VA doctor to take a phone call required me calling my member of congress and having her intercede.

When he called back he said to not even try to get care and to use my civilian insurance (which I and very few others am lucky enough to have) and go to a hospital emergency room.

Of course, “Emergency room care costs 12 to 18 times as much as a visit to a retail health clinic, eight to 12 times as much as a visit to a doctor’s office and six to seven times more than an urgent care visit.” So: America’s healthcare system is by far the world’s least efficient, because the Government is incredibly corrupt, which is the way things are in any aristocracy, and America is extremely so.

It’s just not being reported to the public, though the signs of it are. For example: on 7 November 2023, Axios headlined “U.S. health outcomes worse than OECD nations on most measures”, which was actually an understatement of the facts:

The U.S. performs worse than the average developed nation on 77% of health status indicators like life expectancy, obesity and opioid mortality rate, according to an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development report.

Why it matters: U.S. health spending as a share of gross domestic product yet again far outpaces the other 37 OECD nations while the country continues to have poor outcomes, the OECD Health at a Glance 2023 report shows.

By the numbers: The U.S. ranks 33 out of 38 OECD countries for average life expectancy, after recording one of the largest decreases between 2019 and 2021.

Virtually the only thing that all U.S. billionaires demand from their Government is for it to spend vastly more on ‘defense’ than all other countries do (which means to cut necessary services to the public). And, on top of that, they want it to spend more on healthcare than any other country does. They’ve invested heavily in those sorts of things, and are more concerned about their profits than they are about the country they live in.

The Democrats blame the Republicans, and the Republicans blame the Democrats — and neither blames the billionaires, who actually run both.

BONUS FEATURE

By Eric Zuesse

Why George Clooney, Peter Welch, and the New York Times, Are dangerous

Only a Second, Class-based, American Revolution can liberate Americans and humanity from a lethal tyranny.

Liberals in general, and Hollywood shitlibs in particular, cannot be taken seriously, except as dangerous obstacles to a more genuine democracy.

I opposed the invasion of Iraq by Bush in 2003 — which destroyed that country — even before it was perpetrated. George Clooney, Peter Welch, the New York Times, and other liars or fools of liars, did not.

bombing of Libya by Obama in 2011 — which destroyed that country — even before it was perpetrated. George Clooney, Peter Welch, the New York Times, and other liars or fools of liars, did not.

I opposed the U.S. arming of Al Qaeda in Syria in order to overthrow Assad in 2012 by Obama — which destroyed that country — even before it was perpetrated. George Clooney, Peter Welch, the New York Times, and other liars or fools of liars, did not.

I opposed the U.S. coup that was perpetrated in 2014 by Obama, Clinton, and Biden, against Ukraine in order to place U.S. missiles there to blitz-nuke The Kremlin — which destroyed Ukraine — even before it was perpetrated. George Clooney, Peter Welch, the New York Times, and other liars or fools of liars, did not.

George Clooney says of our present neoconservative-in-chief, “I love Joe Biden. As a senator. As a vice president and as president. I consider him a friend, and I believe in him. Believe in his character. Believe in his morals.” I do not, and I would never sink so low as to say such a thing as that.

Peter Welch says of our present neoconservative-in-chief, “I have great respect for President Biden. He saved our country from a tyrant. He is a man of uncommon decency. He cares deeply about our democracy. He has been one of the best presidents of our time.” (He thinks that Obama was the best.) I do not, and I would never sink so low as to say such a thing as that.

The New York Times says that we must vote for Biden because Trump is supposedly even worse: “HE IS DANGEROUS IN WORD, DEED AND ACTION: DONALD TRUMP IS UNFIT TO LEAD”. Instead, they want us to vote for the most corrupt President in all of U.S. history.

Lili News 029

In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.

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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS

We are NATO. And we’re comin’ to get ya

Please make sure these dispatches reach as many readers as possible. Share with kin, friends and workmates and ask them to do likewise.

Pepe Escobar

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We are the world. We are the people. We are NATO. And we’re comin’ to get ya – wherever you are, whether you want it or not.

Call it the latest pop iteration of the “rules-based international order” – duly christened at NATO’s 75^thbirthday in D.C.

Well, the Global Majority had already been warned – but brains under techno-feudalism tend to be reduced to mush.

J. Stoltenberg—careerist merchant of mass murder.

So a gentle reminder is in order. This had already been stated in the first paragraph of the Joint Declaration on EU-NATO Cooperation, issued on January 9, 2023:

“We will further mobilize the combined set of instruments at our disposal, be they political, economic, or military, (italics mine) to pursue our common objectives to the benefit of our one billion citizens.”

Correction: barely one million, part of the 0.1% plutocracy. Certainly not one billion.

Cut to the 2024 NATO Summit Declaration – obviously redacted, with stellar mediocrity, by the Americans, with the other 31 assorted vassal members duly assenting.

So here’s the main 2024 NATO “strategic” trifecta:

Forceful imposition of extra military spending on all members.
Massive hyping up of the “China threat”.

As for the theme song of the NATO 75 show, there are actually two. Apart from “China Threat” (closing credits), the other one (opening credits) is “Free Ukraine”. The lyrics go something like this: it looks like we are at war against Russia in Ukraine, but don’t be fooled: NATO is not a participant in the war.

Well, they are even setting up a NATO office in Kiev, but that is just to coordinate production for a Netflix war series.

Those malignant authoritarians

The outgoing epileptic slab of Norwegian wood posing as NATO Secretary-General – before the arrival of his Dutch Gouda replacement – put on quite a performance. Highlights include his fierce denunciation of “the growing alliance between Russia and its authoritarian friends in Asia”, as in “authoritarian leaders in Iran, North Korea and China”. These malignant entities “all want NATO to fail”. So there’s much work to do “with our friends in the Indo-Pacific”.

The joint declaration directly blames China for fueling Russian “aggression” in Ukraine: Beijing is described as a “decisive enabler” of the Kremlin’s “war effort”. NATO scriptwriters even directly threaten China: China “cannot enable the largest war in Europe in recent history without this negatively impacting its interests and reputation”.

To counter-act such malignity, NATO will expand its “partnerships” with “Indo-Pacific” states.

Even before the summit declaration, the Global Times was already losing their cool with these inanities: “Under the hype from the U.S. and NATO, it seems that China has become the ‘key’ to the survival of Europe, controlling the fate of the Russia-Ukraine conflict like a ‘decisive power.’”

The tawdry rhetorical fest in D.C. definitely won’t cut it in Beijing: the Hegemon just wants “to reach more deeply into Asia, trying to establish an ‘Asia-Pacific NATO’ to help achieve the U.S.’ ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy.’”

Southeast Asia, via diplomatic channels, essentially agrees: with the exception of bought and paid for misguided Filipinos, no one wants serious turbulence across Asia-Pacific like NATO has unleashed across Europe.

Zhou Bo, senior fellow at Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy and a retired PLA officer, also dismissed the Indo-Pacific shenanigans even before the summit: we had an excellent exchange about it late last year at the Astana Forum in Kazakhstan.

Whatever happens, Exceptionalistan will remain on overdrive. NATO and Japan have agreed to establish a “highly confidential security information” line, around the clock. So count on meek Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to enhance Japan’s “pivotal role” in the building of an Asian NATO.

Everyone with a brain from Urumqi to Bangalore knows that the motto across Asia, for the Exceptionalists, is “Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan”. The absolute majority of ASEAN, and hopefully India, will not fall for it.

What is clear is that the NATO at 75 circus is absolutely clueless and impervious to what happened at the recent SCO summit in Astana. Especially when it comes to the SCO now positioned as a key node in bringing on a new, Eurasia-wide collective security arrangement.

As for Ukraine, once again Medvedev Unplugged, in inimitable style, delivered the Russian position:

“The Washington Summit Declaration of July 10 mentions ‘the irreversible path of Ukraine’ to NATO. For Russia, 2 possible ways of how this path ends are acceptable: either Ukraine disappears, or NATO does. Still better, both.”

In parallel, China is conducting military exercises in Belarus only a few days after Minsk officially became a SCO member. Translation: forget about NATO “expanding” to Asia when Beijing is already making it clear it is very much present in NATO’s alleged “backyard”.

A declaration of war against Eurasia

Michael Hudson once again has reminded everyone with a brain that the running NATO warmongering show has nothing to do with peaceful internationalism. It’s rather about “a unipolar U.S. military alliance leading toward military aggression and economic sanctions to isolate Russia and China. Or more to the point, to isolate European and other allies from its former trade and investment with Russia and China, making those allies more dependent on the United States.”

The 2024 NATO declaration actually is a renewed declaration of war, hybrid and otherwise, against Eurasia – as well as Afro-Eurasia (yes, there are promises of “partnerships” advancing everywhere from Africa to the Middle East).

The Eurasia integration process is about geoeconomic integration – including, crucially, transportation corridors connecting, among other latitudes, northern Europe with West Asia.

For the Hegemon, this is the ultimate nightmare: Eurasia integration driving Western Europe away from the U.S. and preventing that perennial wet dream, the colonization of Russia.

So only plan A would apply, with absolute ruthlessness: Washington – literally – bombed Russia-Germany integration (Nord Stream 1 and 2, and more) and turned the vassal lands of frightened, discombobulated Europeans into a potentially very dangerous place, right beside a raging Hot War.

So once again, let everyone go back to that first paragraph of the January 2023 EU-NATO joint communiqué. That’s what we’re facing today, reflected on the title of my latest book, Eurasia v. NATOstan: NATO – in theory – fully mobilized, in military, political and economic terms, to fight against any Global Majority forces that may destabilize Imperial Hegemony.

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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS

The Big Lie is pushing the US Empire and its vassals toward social pandemonium, nuclear confrontation, or both

Billy Bob's Blowback Roundtable THE WORLD THROUGH AN INDEPENDENT LEFT LENS BY BILLY BOB with Patrice Greanville OpEds

Totalitarian Deception

The Biggest Lie of Them All: Our Malignant Foreign Policy

Zuesse somberly concludes:

Summation

ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCEAssociate Editor Billy Bob is a dedicated anti-imperialist activist and blogger. He hosts the Blowback roundatable. You can reach him at his Facebook page HERE. Patrice Greanville is this publication's founder and editor-in-chief.

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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS

Prospects for World War 3 (Reposted)

ALEKS Black Mountain Analysis

Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker

Prospects for World War 3 – Dedicated to Andrei Raevsky, the Vineyard Saker

A strategic picture of the events of a collapsing Ukraine and the end of NATO

Introduction

Preconditions

Further weapon shipments

Red lines

The West

Goals

Wounded animal

Challenge

Indicators

Important factors

The lynchpin – Odessa

Chickens in Odessa

Strategic outlook

Basics

Poland and its options

Black Mountain Analysis is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Hungary, Serbia and the end of NATO

Russia’s steamroller

China

Conclusion

Black Mountain Analysis is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Recommend Black Mountain Analysis to the readers of Patrice’s Newsletter

Geopolitical and economical analysis

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Biden’s senility, and ours

SPENGLER Asia Times VIEWPOINTS

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The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post.

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The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post.

Eric Zuesse’s Dispatches: Why the U.S. Regime and Its Colonies Hide the Reality from their Public

Eric Zuesse SUBSTACK.COM

Why the U.S. Regime and Its Colonies Hide the Reality from their Public

BONUS FEATURE

By Eric Zuesse

Why George Clooney, Peter Welch, and the New York Times, Are dangerous

Only a Second, Class-based, American Revolution can liberate Americans and humanity from a lethal tyranny.

Print this article

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post.

We are NATO. And we’re comin’ to get ya

Pepe Escobar

Those malignant authoritarians

A declaration of war against Eurasia

Print this article

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post.

Billy Bob's Blowback Roundtable
THE WORLD THROUGH AN INDEPENDENT LEFT LENS
BY BILLY BOB
with
Patrice Greanville

OpEds

ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Associate Editor Billy Bob is a dedicated anti-imperialist activist and blogger. He hosts the Blowback roundatable. You can reach him at his Facebook page HERE.

Patrice Greanville is this publication's founder and editor-in-chief.

ALEKS
Black Mountain Analysis

SPENGLER
Asia Times
VIEWPOINTS

Eric Zuesse
SUBSTACK.COM