Please make sure these dispatches reach as many readers as possible. Share with kin, friends and workmates and ask them to do likewise.

By Jeremy Kuzmarov

Military-Industrial-Academic Complex

Another insult to genuine democracy: Florida International University Hires Failed Venezuelan Coup Plotter as Visiting Professor at Adam Smith Center For Economic Freedom

Juan Guaidó, 2^nd from the right, at FIU. [Source: libertarianinstitute.org]

First run October 13, 2023 •

The CIA has long had a presence on American college campuses—whether as recruiters or in political science and Russian Studies Departments.

Foreign CIA assets or political leaders or intellectuals receiving funding from the National Endowment For Democracy (NED), which finances propaganda, have been frequently appointed to faculty positions at prestigious universities.

Kanan Makyia, author of an NED-funded study documenting human rights abuses by Saddam Hussein and a cheerleader for the Iraq War, was appointed to the faculty of the political science department at Brandeis University when I was a graduate student there during the buildup to the Iraq War as one example of this.

[1]

[2]

Juan Guaidó. He even got a standing ovation from the US Congress, under the Trump regime, which plotted openly for a coup and to steal Venezuela's oil. [Source: freedom.fiu.edu]

During the fall semester, Guaidó will conduct eight study group sessions, in addition to mentoring students, conducting research and being part of public conferences and seminars.

He will be paid $40,000, FIU said.

This compensation is a lot more money than FIU adjunct professors get who are far more qualified to teach FIU students than Guaidó as they hold Master’s and in most cases Ph.D. degrees in their fields.

Guaidó’s main specialty is in inciting hate and plotting failed uprisings against Venezuelan socialist leader Nicolás Maduro so perhaps he could give courses on that.

According to Luis Vicente León, Venezuela’s leading pollster, Guaidó spent his career in the most violent faction of Venezuela’s most radical opposition party, positioning himself at the forefront of one destabilization campaign after another.

León wrote that “these radical leaders [referring to Guaidó and his mentor Leopoldo López] have no more than 20 percent in opinion polls.” Guaidó’s party remained isolated because the majority of the population “does not want war.”

Despite his lack of popular support in Venezuela, with fewer than one in five Venezuelans even knowing who he was at the time, Guaidó was recognized by the Trump administration in 2019 as Venezuela’s president.

Worshipped for a time in Western media in a manner reminiscent of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Guaidó’s stock fell when some of his supporters were captured and killed after launching an amateurish raid into Venezuela from Colombia in an attempt to overthrow Maduro that was dubbed the “stupid Bay of Pigs,” a reference to the failed CIA-backed invasion of Cuba in 1961.

Guaidó’s representatives in Colombia were also caught embezzling $125,000 meant for humanitarian aid, and Guaidó was indicted by Venezuela’s Attorney General last week, accused of stealing the resources of the state owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) for his own benefit, costing taxpayers $19 billion.

Guaidó has meanwhile advocated for sanctions that led to the deaths of thousands of his own countrymen.

Launched by Hugo Chávez, a socialist who ruled Venezuela from 1998 until his death in 2013, the Bolivarian revolution had sought to establish Venezuela’s economic independence through national control over the country’s oil, whose revenues were used to develop the economy and uplift the poor.

Throughout much of the 20^th century, Venezuela was ruled; by an oligarchy, which monopolized the country’s oil wealth and allowed it to be exploited by U.S. based multinational corporations.

The ample founding (private and public) and proliferation of antidemocratic institutions in the US university system, without any visible challenges from the public, politicians or media, show that America completely lacks a vigorous democracy. Only in a rightwing dictatorship or an oligarchy operating as a "capitalist democracy" can such odious things not only exist but prosper. —Ed

U.S. hostility to Venezuela’s government and support for right-wingers like Guaidó stems from the threat of a good example and fear of the loss of traditional U.S. hegemony in Latin America that dates back to the 19^th century.

As a de facto puppet of the U.S, Guaidó advocated for privatizing PDVSA, lowering the corporate tax rate, and defunding social programs that greatly improved the quality of life for Venezuelans, while reintegrating Venezuela with Washington dominated financial institutions.

Creation of U.S. Regime-Change Laboratory

In January 2019, Dan Cohen and Max Blumenthal of The Grayzone Project published an important article titled: “The Making of Juan Guaidó: How the U.S. regime-change laboratory created Venezuela’s coup leader.” It examined Guaidó’s incitement of violent anti-Maduro protests and his deep ties to U.S. intelligence and government agencies.

In 2002, a young Guaidó helped lead anti-government rallies after the Venezuelan government declined to renew the license of Radio Caracas Televisión (RCTV), a privately owned station that played a leading role in the 2002 coup against Hugo Chávez.

Berrizbeitia is a former executive director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) who spent more than a decade working in the Venezuelan energy sector, under the old oligarchic regime that was ousted by Chávez.

Luis Enrique Berrizbeitia [Source: lapatilla.com]

In 2009, after returning to Venezuela, Guaidó formed a new right-wing political party led by Leopoldo López, a Princeton-educated former mayor of a wealthy district in Caracas who was part of one of the three families that tried to orchestrate a coup against Chávez in 2002 and was sentenced to 13 years in prison for inciting uprisings against Maduro in 2014.

Anti-Milošević protesters in Belgrade in 2000 waving Otpor flag. [Source: wagingnonviolence.org]

The hotel meeting reportedly received the blessing of Otto Reich, a fanatically anti-Castro Cuban exile working in George W. Bush’s Department of State and were financed by three petroleum industry figureheads.

Inside the meetings, leaked emails stated that Guaidó and his fellow activists hatched a plan to overthrow Hugo Chávez by generating chaos through protracted spasms of street violence.

Four years later, Guaidó tweeted a video showing himself clad in a helmet and gas mask surrounded by masked armed elements that engaged in a violent clash with police. This was during the so-called Guarimbas protests that resulted in the death of 126 people, majority of them Chavistas, and mass destruction of public infrastructure.

At one point during the uprising, Guaidó took to the stage with Leopoldo López to urge the crowd to march on the office of the Attorney General.

The Proud Boys and other alleged instigators of the January 6 Capitol Riots were given long prison sentences for sedition for far less incendiary provocations (some of the Proud Boys convicted on sedition charges weren’t even in Washington on the day of the January 6 riots).

according to Cohen and Blumenthal, “whitewashed a deadly tactic that had killed; unarmed civilians like Santiago Pedroza and decapitated; a man named Elvis Durán, among many others.”

What Will Guaidó Teach Students at FIU

Students taking Guaidó’s seminar at FIU this semester are likely oblivious to the violent past of their new professor, or his fanatical right-wing views or use as a tool of the U.S. regime-change establishment.

Venezuela, however, is not a dictatorship as its government has won popular elections, and Guaidó was not defending democracy when he plotted coups and the destabilization of his own country in alliance with fascistic extremists.

The Pentagon’s ties to the Adam Smith Center for Economic Freedom are evident in that its founding director, Carlos Díaz-Rosillo, was Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs as well as a policy adviser to Donald Trump.

David Webb, a founder of the Tea Party in New York; and c) Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a former congresswoman from Florida who was also an NED Board member and part of the Miami anti-Castro Cuban mafia.

Carlos Díaz-Rosillo [Source: freedom.fiu.edu]	Ileana Ros-Lehtinen [Source: freedom.fiu.edu]
Paula Dobriansky [Source: freedom.fiu.edu]	Dave Webb [Source: freedom.fiu.edu]

[3]

Uribe Vélez and Guaidó’s appointment to prestigious positions reflects the moral corruption of higher education today and its function in supporting U.S. imperialism.

support for a journal funded by the CIA-linked Ford Foundation that promotes misinformation under the guise of combatting it.

All of these cases exemplify the betrayal of the academic mission of institutions whose primary purpose should be to provoke critical thinking among students and to cultivate new ideas for the betterment of society.

The latter becomes impossible when students are being instructed by violent thugs, narco-traffickers, state propagandists and war mongers along with conservative ideologues whose life mission is to expunge the humanistic ideals associated with socialism.

“The Making of Juan Guaidó: How the US regime change laboratory created Venezuela’s coup leader,”The Grayzone Project, January 29, 2019; Kyle Anzalone, “Former Venezuelan Coup Plotter Hired by Florida College to Speak on ‘Defending Democracy,’”The Libertarian Institute, October 2, 2023.
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Washington DC is rich in universities serving as "prestige nurseries" for imperialist assets who usually obtain high-falutin' degrees and go on to staff "national security" advisory positions, etc. Georgetown, George Washington U, and places like Princeton, Yale, Columbia, and Harvard are also crawling with this kind of activity.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Jeremy Kuzmarov is Managing Editor of CovertAction Magazine. He is the author of four books on U.S. foreign policy, including Obama’s Unending Wars(Clarity Press, 2019) and The Russians Are Coming, Again, with John Marciano (Monthly Review Press, 2018). He can be reached at: jkuzmarov2@gmail.com.

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ALEKS
Black Mountain Analysis
OpEds

Serbian analyst Aleks, of Black Mountain Analysis, is one of the Slavonic geopolitical /military experts and researchers that frequently examine the world's rapidly changing situation as the US Hegemon meddles and wages wars and aggressions in various parts of the world in its attempt to maintain its global supremacy. The flashpoints, so far, are Ukraine, Taiwan, and now—again—the Middle East, this time Israel itself the main theater of the conflict. These Slavonic observers—a set that includes Big Serge and Simplicius the Thinker, all operating behind a nom de guerre—are notable for the originality of their insights and the impressive scope and depth of their knowledge. They represent a new and refreshing dimension in the analysis of world affairs, precisely as a new world paradigm is aborning. Please consider supporting them if you can. One last point: While we deeply admire their writing and regard it as extremely valuable, especially in a world in which truth and rationality are being systematically suppressed by the Empire and its minions, we may not agree with all the viewpoints or nuances expressed by the authors.

Israel

Genesis [i]

ALEKS

OCT 12, 2023

Displaced Palestinian families in Southern Gaza. (UNRWA)

Introduction

Because of the current dramatic events, I’ve decided to write down a few strategic thoughts about and around Israel. It is important to understand some things to be able to assess the current situation as objectively as possible. The pictures, interviews, statements, and footage coming from both sides are currently only polarizing, and thereby they completely exclude rational thinking. The goal of this article is to zoom out from the myriad details, and give you a birds-eye view of the situation on the ground.

References

Since I have written about Israel several times before, it makes sense to re-read these two Articles in order to grasp my thinking as a whole:

The Beginning

Israel was founded by the Victors of WW2, with the help of the United Nations. The goal was to give Jewish people a common home at a place with historic value for the Jewish people. Given the persecution and genocides suffered by the Jewish people throughout the centuries, it was the right thing to do.

So, the Jewish state of Israel was founded in 1948 on its current territory. Even back then, the concept was that there would be a Jewish state and a Palestinian state. Unfortunately, right at the declaration of independence of Israel, a war broke out between Israel and its Arab neighbors. Which led to the division of the Palestinian lands in Gaza and the West Bank of the Jordan.

Due to hostilities between the Arab and the Jewish populations, the idea of two states became out of question.

All problems around Israel are rooted in this time. It was impossible to establish a Jewish state right in Arab lands, recognize it and let destiny take its course. A perpetual conflict was hard-wired into Israel’s history since then. If the Victors of WW2 had wanted to establish a safe and prosperous Jewish state which would thrive among and with the Arabs instead against them, then this was definitely the wrong approach.

The UN should have set up a lasting peacekeeping mission in Israel, which would be tasked with helping establish both Israel and Palestina as two more-or-less symbiotic entities. And if the bridge-building needed decades of investment and state-building, then this is exactly what should have been done. Both states should have been built up in prosperity and dependency on each other and cultivated for at least some five decades in order to get all the generations of hate out of the Life-Cyle.

No.

Instead, they took two scorpions, threw weapons in, and let them fight for entertainment. Okay, that was exaggerated, but I wanted to make the point.

Violence

Israel is a child, born of violence instead of love. This child had an extremely violent childhood and youth. It was forced to fight constantly, literally a battle for life or death. It is the fault of neither the Jews nor the Arabs. It is solely due to the mismanagement of the founding of Israel by the UN. Of course, the Soviet Union also did not do the very best job in the creation of Israel. Nevertheless, the Western empire took patronage over Israel, and was later the sole culprit for the cultivation of this violence-addicted class of politicians.

Israel always needed to rely on itself with regards to defense, at least in terms of manpower. The weapons were delivered by the Americans, yes, but the fighting has been carried out by the Israelis. Which means, in turn, that they have always lived under constant threat of their own destruction.

Not only the Soviet Union, but also the West could have managed things differently.

Well, this constant threat of destruction in the face of a quantitatively much larger enemy changed the Israelis. It made their reaction to every single small threat violent and brutal, because their goal was to deter their enemies from ever again trying to destroy Israel. Hence the acquisition of nuclear bombs.

I want to reiterate that Israel has been taught by its own history, since “childhood”, that in the face of a threat, you must punch so hard that the enemy won’t try it again for a long time. By the way, this is not my opinion or justification, I only present some facts from the past. No personal opinions included.

A chain of events cultivated a certain class of political leaders, civilians, and settlers in Israel that is infested with hate and violence. Hate and violence that they learned over many years, from war to war and from generation to generation.

Let’s take Benjamin Netanyahu as an example. His brother was killed by a Palestinian group while he was trying to free hostages as commander of a special-forces unit. That was back in 1976. That Netanyahu is not the biggest friend of the Palestinians is probably somewhat understandable. His current actions and decisions, of course, are under no circumstances justifiable or acceptable. Most likely they will result in severe war crimes, which is, as I said, unacceptable.

Now one could ask, why did these Palestinians take hostages, so that Netanyahu’s brother had to free them? Did Israelis kill their relatives earlier? This is an infinite wheel which goes back to the creation of Israel.

Again! It was created the wrong way! Neither Israel is to [fully] blame for its violent behavior nor the Palestinians for their struggle for freedom. The Victors of WW2 are to blame for what they have created and cultivated.

Of course, this doesn’t change a thing, that what is currently happening is entirely unacceptable. Gaza is so densely populated that with the current aerial bombing we can expect mass civilian casualties. This has to stop, or at least the civilian population needs to have an opportunity to evacuate to safe places.

As in reality, if a child was raised in violence and the child becomes a murderer as an adult because of his traumatic past, the adult is still liable for its crimes. And so is Israel.

Here is the most important point. Even though Israel is a Jewish state, it is a state. The state is liable for its actions. Not a religion or a people. No general accusation. If THESE Jews in Israel are acting THIS way, it doesn’t mean that all Jews worldwide are acting the same way. If they have been raised in a good environment, they fit into society like everybody else. See the Jews in the United States and also in the Slavic countries. At least, those who survived WW2 and did not emigrate to Israel. This is what I constantly try to say: It is not the Jewish people of the world who are being bad, nor should they be blamed for all evil in the world. If we look short- or medium term, we could blame Israeli politicians and/or the Arabs for their constant efforts to destroy Israel. Strategically said, the victors of WW2 are to be blamed for the situation.

I have given some examples here. Of course, I blame neither the Israelis/Jews nor the Arabs for the situation but as I said, it is the result of the wrong approach to the creation of Israel. It should have been made by the Victors of WW2 under their guarantees and investments in both Israel and Palestina and WITH the Arabs. As a long-term project. Today we have a mess.

There is a solution, which I will discuss later.

Beneficiaries

I need to clearly highlight that there are beneficiaries of the suffering of both the Palestinians and the Israelis, such as the people who sell weapons to all the parties. Initially, this was both the West (Israel and some Arab allies) and the Soviet Union (Other Arabs).

But this is the smaller piece. The bigger piece of the cake is oil. Before the creation of Israel, (Western) colonial powers controlled the oil of the region by having the Arab states as colonies. With the need to release them into “independence”, it still has been necessary to keep control of the oil price to not let the Arabs dictate the fortunes of the Western and Soviet economies with real market prices.

Instead, it was beneficial to divide the Arabs into many smaller states and having them in constant conflict with each other and Israel. This ensured for the bigger powers the opportunity to “protect” themselves for certain benefits, such as strategic access to “their” oil. The scheme goes further. The oil is being bought with Western/Soviet currencies, which can/should be reinvested in the West/Soviet Union for weapons and protection.

Later, the Soviet Union stopped doing this, and they invested heavily in their partners in terms of infrastructure and education. See Syria and Egypt. Investing in and developing a partner is more beneficial [and moral] than simply milking it to the bones. (See the West and Africa vs China/Russia and Africa).

"Instead, it was beneficial to divide the Arabs into many smaller states and having them in constant conflict with each other and Israel."

The ultimate justification for the western empire/oligarchy (see Economics and Empires 5) to keep this scheme going was the subjugation of Saudi Arabia. Forcing it to sell Oil only for Dollars and in return protecting it, etc. Taking full control of the world’s economy by manipulating Oil prices through Saudi Arabia, and thereby through OPEC on Western terms and benefits.

For this scheme, Saudi Arabia needed to be constantly under threat by Iran and Israel. To be forced to re-invest a certain agreed percentage of the Oil Dollars back into the American Military Industrial Complex. Similar schemes were applied to most of Israel’s neighbors. The few that didn’t comply have been destroyed. Ask Iraq how it is doing.

Here is the most important thing: From my point of view, it is not Israel (Tail) which wags the dog (US) nor is it the other way around. The Western Oligarchy (Economics and Empires 5) which has been based in several western countries for centuries, wags both the US, Israel, and all other Western host nations. This will be explained in great detail in the coming article.

The suffering of Israel and Palestina is beneficial to these people, and therefore cultivated further. There is no reason to change the status quo. You see, as soon as things get dangerous, American aircraft carriers (not for the benefit of the American people, but for the Western Oligarchy) instantly appear next to Israel to protect the status quo. Perpetual mutual slaughter.

This has to end. No, not Israel has to end. I’m fully for the existence and prosperity of Israel. But the externally cultivated perpetual hate and conflict has to end, and it absolutely can end.

But how?

Two States

After the Six-Day War in 1967, the UN Security Council agreed upon Resolution 242, which should have led to the establishment of two states (Israel and Palestina). This should have been done in 1947/48.

The formation and establishment of two states under UN guarantee is the only solution to put an end to the perpetual conflict. Separated by whatever you want: Fences, UN troops, whatever. The important thing is that the borders of both states need to be guaranteed, by all members of the Security Council. This is the premise of Resolution 242.

All people in the region would deserve the same prosperity and security, Arabs and Jews. Unfortunately, the main patron of Israel, the United States, does not force Israel to implement this, and Israel is not doing it because it would lose territories and settlements. The United States could force Israel to do it. But it won’t.

And here is where Iran comes into play, pursuing the other extreme: The full “removal” of Israel. Therefore, it has created an axis of resistance with the help of its Quds Forces. The Quds Forces are part of the IRGC (the Revolutionary Guard). The Quds Forces are tasked to form, organize, finance, equip, and command organizations and governments across the Islamic World for a war against Israel. Well, in fact Quds means Jerusalem. The goal is to free Jerusalem actually, and not destroy Israel.

The balance of forces has always been in favor of the West and Israel. That balance has now shifted. There are two reasons for this. First, the emergence of cheap, highly capable missiles and rockets that are able to hit targets in Israel, and also American Navy ships off the coast. The resistance around Palestina has been cultivated during the whole time of the conflict in Syria. Fighters have been trained in Syria in the fight against… “western backed insurgents?” Missiles and rockets have been produced in quantities like sausages and transferred to Gaza.

Second, of course, is that the military powerhouse of the Oligarchy, the United States, is no longer able to project power against BRICS. It is severely, but not fully, depleted. Moreover, the conflict in one place would mean, because of the depleted resources, vulnerability at all other places worldwide. There is no way that the US Navy is going to eat Resistance Axis missiles in the Mediterranean only to witness the invasion of Taiwan, or unrest in other places.

You can guess what we Serbs will do instantly, if the Americans were forced to withdraw Camp Bondsteel from our soil because the resources would be needed elsewhere…

The United States cannot currently project power anywhere because the whole house of cards would come down in at least eight other places in the world, where it forcefully divides other countries with their military presence. Here are just a few examples:

Ukraine and many other ex-Soviet countries
Serbia
Taiwan
Korea
Entire Arab World
Africa

No, the balance of power has shifted to the Axis of Resistance.

I want to be honest here, I assume that the current operation of Hamas, which will most likely spread to Hezbollah and maybe even further, is controlled by the Iranian Quds Forces. It is the very reason for their existence. Iran saw that the balance of power is in their favor now, and it is now willing to act. I assume the goal could be to defeat Israel and force the “Two States” solution upon Israel. But I don’t (and can’t) know. And I will not value my own opinion in here. This is only a dry analysis.

What I can say is, it is deeply cynical and immoral to use the Palestinians as sacrificial lambs to activate the resistance plan. The slaughter of civilians and children in Gaza is unjustifiable. There should have been another way. I am assuming, without having any evidence, that the sacrifice of Gaza is the trigger for defeating Israel by the Axis of Resistance. And it could very well succeed. As I said, the balance of power is now on the Resistance side.

We at BMA can’t ever wish for war and death. We condemn any and every kind of violence against civilians on both sides, and we will certainly take no sides here. We condemn all the atrocities and war crimes by either side.

Unfortunately, as described in my previous article, it is most likely the plan to sacrifice Gaza to produce all the atrocities by the Israelis only to activate the Axis of Resistance. This is also disgusting, the same way as the aerial bombing of Gaza.

Determinism

What is currently happening is coldly calculated determinism. Execute a major blow against the Israeli military and civilians and embarrass the Israeli government in front of its citizens. And see just what will happen. The blow and the danger are so big that Israel will instantly pivot to the existential threat modus. Which, as I have explained above, leads to the maximum projection of violence in absolutely all directions only to show their own people that everything is under control, and to show the external players that they don’t dare intervene, otherwise complete destruction awaits.

This was exactly calculated by the organizers of the attacks against Israel.

Explosion

Determinism led to the full explosion that we are witnessing today. It remains to be seen what players will be involved and how the conflict might develop. I personally assume that the very least is the participation of Hezbollah as well, with the worst-case scenario being, of course, WW3. I’m sure reality will be somewhere in between.

The End or The Solution

Make no mistake. The current situation is absolutely a struggle of life and death for Israel. Well, at least for their political leadership. It is very much possible, depending on how big the conflict might expand, that Israel might lose and could be occupied by Arabs. Personally, I don’t believe that the goal is the destruction of Israel but the forceful implementation of the “Two State” resolution, on Arab terms. It is possible that this could happen. I can’t determine any probabilities here yet. We will see.

Israel has, as all other nuclear powers, a contingency plan, named “Samson Plan”. Which essentially means that it would discharge its whole nuclear arsenal against its enemies before it goes under. This is what makes me think that full destruction of Israel is not the plan of the Axis of Resistance. Rather some kind of “Regime Change” and implementation of Resolution 242.

Again, these are not my opinions. Only analysis.

China, from my point of view could and should be the key for the resolution of the conflict. Only China has the influence and standing to talk to all stakeholders. And to convince them. Recently, Russia’s President Putin expressed also his view that the only solution can be the two states solution. Hence, it can be assumed that this is a coordinated stance and that China shares the same view. The war, unfortunately, will take its course but the settlement could be mediated by China in behind-the-door diplomacy. We will see.

Opinion

And here we come to my opinion

I absolutely support the idea of a Jewish State. Of Israel. It should exist and prosper.
I absolutely support the idea of a Palestinian State. Palestina. It should exist and prosper.
What currently is happening is madness and it should stop immediately. Especially because of the civilians and the children… on both sides but in the current phase especially the Palestinian civilians.
There should be an international intervention sanctioned by the UN Security Council with the mandate to separate both parties. With the goal to immediately save as many lives as possible.
The Two States Resolution 242 needs to be implemented. But peacefully. All people in the region deserve lasting peace.

And one last thing. I want to warn you all. There have been camps until now. Ukraine supporters against Russia supporters for example. These camps are consistent with many other topics. Essentially, it is the anti-imperialists/sovereigntists against the empire supporters (most of them don’t even know that they support an empire).

With this new war, new dividing lines occur between all of us. Especially in the West. Even the both aforementioned camps are now further divided in Pro-Israel and Pro-Palestina supporters. And with the brutal, graphic and disgusting pictures that are arriving from the civilian areas, it polarizes all of us even more. This is intentional. Don’t fall for this trap. It is “divide and conquer”. Don’t let hate and emotions control you. Keep a cool head and evaluate all events rationally.

I stand my ground. BMA will stay neutral in this conflict. We are pro-Israel and pro-Palestina. Pro- civilians of both sides. These people are being played against each other for the benefit of others. We pray for a quick end and peace.

If need be, I will write an analysis of any further escalations. For now, each of us must try to keep a cool head.

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)

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Israel

Status Update [i]

Aleks

Oct 8, 2023

Dear community,

I can now fully confirm that what is going on is the full and final escalation of the situation around Israel. It is dead serious. Not only for the Israelis and the Palestinians, but for the whole region. The question is not whether it will blow up. It will blow up full scale. The question is how big that “full scale” explosion will be, and what countries will be affected by it.

Things are still too early to be analyzed, but I think I can issue a few solid statements since I have been studying the situation for several years. Years ago, I studied the operations of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards within Syria. During my research I dug, by chance, very deep into the operations, purposes, and organization of the Quds Forces. It is an elite formation within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. And its purpose and organization are exactly this: the liberation of the Palestinian people, when the time comes. To be more precise, the liberation of Jerusalem. Quds means literally “Jerusalem”.

I want to reiterate that I’m entirely neutral in my reporting about this conflict. My only interests are connected with Serbia. We have neither a problem with the Palestinians nor with the Israelis.

Well, let’s come back to the Quds Forces. They are organized in several sections. There are publicly known special forces. And there are also covertly organized, let’s say undercover-acting, agents in the tens of thousands, all across the Arab world and Israel. Their purpose is to organize and prepare an all-out war of the axis of resistance against Israel, in what is essentially most of the Muslim world around Israel. We can think of them as thousands of active agents, preparing, organizing, and coordinating militias and governments around Israel for the final blow. And we can think of thousands of sleeper cells, only waiting for a prepared sign that would make them execute a predefined and pre-communicated sequence of actions.

Actions with one single purpose. Bringing an end to Israel. Don’t ask me how far they would go, I have no idea, and the less I know about this the better…

Guys, this is pretty serious and heavy shit. I mean… I’m deeply shocked. This is definitely a historical event, essentially as Russia’s SMO progresses to conclusion, and at the start of the decolonialization of Africa. The Wars of Liberation are in full swing.

Okay, what does that all mean? First, I have no evidence for the Quds theory, but since I have spent a lot of time studying it during the Syria campaign, I can be sure of my point of view. Which doesn’t mean of course, that I could [not] be wrong! The date of the start of the war is also interesting. The Yom-Kippur War started at the same date. It is a message.

What just happened against Israel means only one thing. Israel will mobilize everything and destroy Gaza. It remains to be seen whether it will be occupied or simply leveled with other means, but it will be destroyed. Whoever started the current operation did a perfect planning job. And this means, it was clear to him that Gaza will be destroyed. In fact, it was part of the plan. A sacrifice.

The destruction and/or occupation of Gaza is unacceptable to the Arab neighbors. My friends… We can expect the region to be blown up pretty soon.

The Mossad knew about the plans and let it happen, to consolidate the Israeli people and the government. (I have many reasons to believe that this is not true).

The Mossad itself cracked the Iranian codes for the activation of the Quds Sleeper cells to start the process prematurely and to destroy the whole Quds Operation before it could ever be used against Israel in a worse moment. (Possible, but currently it is also a bad moment…).

Well, in fact, I assume that Iran now has all the confidence to be able to defeat Israel conventionally, since the United States is essentially disarmed. Any moves of the Americans in support of Israel will be a disaster for the Americans. The United States simply can’t afford a war against Iran at the present time, since most of its logistics resources are bogged down in Ukraine and against China.

I could outline my thoughts about what a potential sequence of events would look like, but I won’t do that because everything I can imagine now is horrific, and the hate in the region is great. You can expect horrific pictures from both sides. What happens in Ukraine is not comparable to what we might see from the Near and Middle East.

We at BMA are neutral in this conflict and we will not take any side or report pro- this or pro- that faction. We pray for a lasting peace.

[i] Edited by Piquet (EditPiquet@gmail.com)

A noteworthy comment—

Richard V

Writes Richard’s Substack

Oct 8·edited Oct 8

Liked by Aleks

It is difficult for me to believe that Hamas did this audacious stuff without it being part of a larger plan agreed to among Israel's enemies--the biggies being Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. Even without a coordinated plan, if Israel goes all in with the virtual extermination of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, I don't see how Hezbollah stays out. And if Hezbollah goes in, with their incredible arsenal in untouchable North Korean engineered tunnels, and their battle-hardened veterans of fighting in Syria, Israel loses. Not a bloody nose like 2006, but a broken neck. Even a nuclear strike on South Lebanon would not be sufficient to deter Hezbollah. All out war spells the end for Israel. As the Zionist entity collapses, a nuclear attack on Iran is possible. Then the Straight of Hormuz closes, oil goes crazy, and insurance derivatives collapse the Western economies. What mess. As a side note, even if not another shot is fired, Israel is finished. With this fiasco, we will see emigration out of Israel turn into a stampede. Everyone who can bail, will bail. Voila, demographic self-erasure.

Short Update

A few topics

Aleks

Oct 7, 2023

Hello community,

I need to apologize. As most of you know I’m heavily engaged in work in my private life. And that’s what is currently hindering me to release more articles. I basically finished Economics and Empires by 80% almost a week ago and I couldn’t write a single minute since then. Again, I apologize. From January onwards it will become better, since I’ll have fewer private obligations next year.

Nevertheless, I want to give a few comments with regards to current events:

President Vladimir Putin gave a speech at the Valdai Forum. Essentially, he confirmed most of the assumptions and analysis results of my work on BMA. The Duran did a good summary of the speech, which I can recommend, since I haven’t got the time yet, to write an own summary. Here is the link.

There are a lot of paid subscriptions to my Substack. Thank you all for that. Since I can’t currently keep up the pace, and for other reasons, I paused it. You are not charged since August. As soon as I finish my private obligations, I’ll reactivate it and you can expect steady updates.
Apparently, the Palestinians launched a large-scale offensive against Israeli positions. I mean… Large scale. The interesting thing is, it seems to have been completely unexpected by Israeli. Since many Israeli military bases have been captured or destroyed overnight, with plenty of killed soldiers while they have been sleeping I have only one explanation. I’ll explain it after my usual “disclaimer”. When something like this happens one needs to wait at least 48 hours to get some clarity of what is going on. Hence, I will now communicate only some thoughts. Not any kind of analysis.

Everything I know until now points at something very very serious. It looks to me that the “Al Quds” forces of Iran have been activated to launch a campaign against Israel. These are highly trained and specialized forces which are created only for one purpose. Freeing Palestine from occupation. I will not value or comment on the political differences between the Arabs and the Jews/Israelis here. I try to stay neutral here. Maybe I will clarify in another article.

If my assumption is right, then what most likely happened, is the activation of the Quds forces overnight. They prepared the whole axis of resistance in the region. And they carried out the first raids against Israeli positions and bases to activate and motivate the common people to start the Jihad against Israel. These are only assumptions based on the pictured that I saw and the circumstances seen in them.

I have a very good imagination how a potential sequence of events could look like if this is actually the start of the resistance war by Iran. I have no idea, this is really, what is going on. We need to wait 48 hours and maybe everything will turn out different. But if this is the start… Well, things will turn out very ugly. Without going into greater details here.

I’d be happy to read your comments about what you think is going on. Maybe I won’t be able to respond. Please no anti semitic bullshit. We don’t tolerate that.
Which brings me to another conclusion. In my previous geopolitical update, I introduced the concept of “Wars of Liberation”. Which is actually, World War 3. It is currently starting in full swing all over the world. Not a direct clash between the titans but clashes between nations that wants to be free against the hegemon itself or against its vassals. What is the Hegemon? Well, not America or its people neither it is Israel. You will be able to read exactly what/who the Hegemon is in my coming article.

Hence, I will introduce the concept of “Wars of Liberation” as a BMA definition and maybe a future series of articles, describing the starting WW3. (Which is still refuse to believe that it will be fought between Russia/China/USA).

There are many spots all over the world where we will most likely experience the spark of all the instances of the War of Liberation. I try to address this in the future somehow. Unfortunately, there is a real possibility, that Serbia will be a part of it.

Thank you for reading Black Mountain Analysis. This post is public so feel free to share it.

DISCUSSION

Tirion

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

Haven't you omitted one rather important group from your analysis: Zionists?

I'm not at all convinced that Hamas are controlled by Quds. The attack on Gaza looks more like a Zionist false flag to me, yet another problem-reaction-solution scenario, where the solution is the razing of Gaza and the genocide of the Palestinians, all a convenient distraction from the imminent financial collapse of the West.

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

You're right. I'll handle the Israel issue superficially because it is a highly problematic enviroment.

Moreover, you mentioned other scenarios, like the displacing of the Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt through a major false flag operation. I know this thoughts but for now I stay with my assessment for several reasons. If one weighs up the pros and cons of such a false flag I think, that Israel has to lose far more then to gain in case of failure.

But no one of us can know currently. That's why I also can only speculate.

Soon, we will know more. Exactly as with the Prigozhin case. We need to wait, observe and pray for the people. Especially, for the children.

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Tirion

Oct 12·edited Oct 12Liked by Aleks

Well said, Aleks.

Of course, another aspect of the planned "solution" and distraction might be a US attack on Iran. I think this is quite likely, even though it's crazy. The US is so close to collapse, what does it have to lose?

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

The current downfall of the Western empire goes much faster than I anticipated. Hence, everything is possible. But I really don't know. We'll see.

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Puss in Boots

Writes Puss’s Substack

Oct 13

Well you're very hopeful if I may say.

Tamara

Oct 12 Liked by Aleks

It is so rare to have such an objective analysis, when Middle East comes as topic. Thanx!

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

Always appreciate your comment, Tamara 😉

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Frances

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

For what it's worth, a Jewish friend in Toronto really despised the militant Zionists in Israel.

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

Most Jews I personally know despise the "Zionist" movement. I'll keep myself out of this discussion.

Kristi O'Sullivan

Oct 12

I think it’s similar for the many Americans who despise the neo-cons in the US who are also ideologues - ideologues have no place in Democratic governance - impractical theories have no use for real-world problem solving.

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ZebraZ

(Banned)Oct 12Liked by Aleks

“It was impossible to establish a Jewish state right in Arab lands, recognize it and let destiny take its course.”

LOL! Like it was really possible to establish a Jewish state (actually a Zionist state) right in the middle of Christian European lands! Furthermore, Arabs and Jews coexisted peacefully in the Middle East BEFORE the European Zionists arrived. In fact, they are both Semitic people and it was only the Europeans, whether Eastern or Western Europeans that bore hostile resentment toward Jews for centuries and persecuted or discriminated against them. Your entire interpretation of history is based on Eurocentric biases and distortions!

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

Even though you are criticizing my assessment, again, I appreciate your view.

And I understand where you are coming from. There is truth in it.

Thank you.

PS: You might want to formulate your criticism a little more “objective”

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ZebraZ

(Banned)Oct 12

User was banned for this comment. Hide

Objective? Are you kidding? You have omitted so much reality from your supposed “objective analysis” that I wouldn’t know where to begin! First, you fail to trace the very problem of the Zionist state to the European massacres and extermination of Jewish population in Europe. It is the Europeans (and not just the Germans) that are ultimately responsible for their rabid antisemitism and the rise of the Frankenstein of colonial Zionism.

Second, you fail to appreciate that Palestinians have every reason and motivation for the most violent uprising against their plunder and enslavement by the colonial Zionists for the past 75 years. Every manner of civil disobedience and peaceful resistance has been crushed over this period. You act so surprised by the violent uprising of Palestinians in Gaza after 15 years of living in concentration camps and ridiculously attribute it to the Iranian IRGC Quods! Palestinians don’t need any extra motivation from Iran to know who’s really their enemy and whom they have to fight.

Iran foremost provides assistance to all indigenous groups that resist the empire of chaos, and Iran’s ultimate goal is to expel the US empire from the Middle East. It does not control Hamas or Palestinians, nor does it control Syrians, Iraqis, afghans, or Yemenis! These are indigenous forms of resistance that have emerged due to the plunder and destruction of the Middle East by the American Empire and Iran is currently the center of that resistance, much like the USSR inspired communist rebellions from China to Cuba in the past century.

Your interpretations are so convoluted and erroneous that you confuse causes and effects. Iran knows that all the Empire wants to accomplish is to turn every Middle East nation into the Balkans by dividing and ruling them and Israel has always served as the mini base for the clandestine dastardly goals of the empire. That’s why it fiercely defended Lebanon beginning forty years ago against Israel. If Israel was not such a rabid colonizer and enabler of the Anglo-Zionist projects, aggressively attacking, destroying or attempting to weaken and divide every one of its neighbors (including Iran itself) ever since it was created, Iran would have had no problem with Israel.

I would suggest you study further before you analyze, so you don’t inadvertently keep spreading American-Israeli propaganda that Iran aims to destroy Israel for some purported religious reason. After what the US did to Yugoslavia, you should know better!

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

You're mixing a lot of true facts, which I absolutely endorse, with a lot of emotions which leads to wrong assessments. That's exactly what I wrote at the end of my article. Keep a cool head. It is important these days or we all would en up eating each other.

Which should NOT happen.

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Angostura

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

I also subscribe to Tirion's comment. There must be a clear distinction between Jews as a whole and Zionist jews. The state of Israel was created under deceptive auspices by Zionists and with a sole purpose: to occupy as much land as possible, by any means. One should dig deeper into the subject of creation of the state of Israel to fully understand that the Zionists never had the intention to share a life and the land with the local population. And those that enabled them to reach their goals never cared to protect the locals from the Zionist actions.

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Mike Hampton

Writes Same Shit, Different Government…

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

Lots for thought, and I concur with your diplomatic approach.

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

Thanks for mentioning that :-)))

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Mitja

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

Great writing. Thank you for your valuable analysis. Enjoyable reading every time! What I can not wrap my head around is how someone can create a nation (Israel) because the suffered during WW2 (not saying the did not!) and impose something like that to the people living there. Gypsies and other minorities and nationalities suffered a lot during the WW2. Nobody gave them a country. Do we have any further reading on this matter. Google provides too short and very limited answers at glance.

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Tirion

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

This is a very interesting read:

"The Palestine Israel Conflict Was Started with the Classic British Double Dealing"

https://geopolitics.co/2023/10/09/the-palestine-israel-conflict-was-started-with-the-classic-british-double-dealing/

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Mitja

Oct 12

Thank you!

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Mitja

Oct 12

I just read it. Top stuff. I understand now. Many thanks Tirion. Great community!

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Paolo Giusti

Oct 12·edited Oct 12Liked by Aleks

"Kosovo was founded by the Victors of Kosovo war, with the help of the United Nations. The goal was to give Albanian people a common home at a place with historic value for the Albanian people. Given the persecution and genocides suffered by the Albanian people throughout the centuries, it was the right thing to do." does it hurt?

Sorry for the trolling, but i find difficult to take a stand in this fight.

I have no doubt Israel is the south-eastern bastion of the West: i think you Serbs remember what happened when the Muslims conquered Constantinople. But i cannot not sympatize with a population that moved from uncontrolled illigal immigration to refugee camp in a generation.

Cetero censo both parties have the genocide of the other as true aim: this is the only truth of this shi*ty situation.

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

Hi Paolo,

always appreciate your comments.

Thanks.

No worries, I expected a lot of "counter-arguments" since this is the most controversial topic of which one can write. I was struggling whether to throw my hat in or not.

At the end I did, because it is important.

One can't make it right for everyone and to get to the bottom of it and dig everything out, one would need to write a series of books, which I can't.

All the atrocities against the Palestinians are well known and documented to everyone. With the limited space available here, I wanted to highlight also the view of the other side. Which doesn't mean that I endorse it. I simply show, how the other side thinks and where it does come from.

That is important.

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Paolo Giusti

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

Dear Aleks

countries like ours, born from a coherent national struggle, are naturally thorned by the Israelo-palestinian fight because we see ourselves in both the fighter.

In the end, i am a machiavellian realist so i must choose a hard-realist approach to the matter, as i think you serbs should.

That is: as an italian, i must support the stabilizing forces because the Mediterrean is our backyard; as a Serb, you must support the de-stabilizing force because it may free your hands in Kosovo.

Also, that is: using barbarous violence to derail the Abraham Accord and Gaza civilian as human shield are smart ideas for the Palestinians as razing Gaza to the Ground like Hama in 1982 is the smart one for the Israelis. If the "little people" suffer, wel...Marx said that a starving striker is an historic agent, a rich petit bourgeois is not.

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The Phoenix

Writes R[eality] Check

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

I don’t think you can separate the religion and ethnos from the state when it comes to Israel. It is a Jewish state.

Even for many non religious Jews still have an affinity for Israel because it is THE Jewish state.

From that perspective, and especially in times of crisis, the reaction of most is to support it, mostly unconditionally. That is on a human level understandable.

However, that’s why people group non-Israeli Jews with those living there. It’s not an irrational assessment and is born out by the facts.

Last thing, it was actually the strategy of the Zionists to scare Jews living abroad into moving to Israel, otherwise the project would have died on the vine. Theodor Hertzl the “father” of Zionism in no uncertain terms said so and was willing to accept the loss of Jewish lives for it. To him the holocaust was a gift that keeps on giving - to this day.

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Tirion

Oct 12·edited Oct 12Liked by Aleks

Jewish state? Or Zionist?

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The Phoenix

Writes R[eality] Check

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

When you have your own states within your borders and everyone is Jewish with no dispute or desire to acquire more land, what’s the difference?

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Tirion

Oct 12Liked by Aleks

There is clearly quite a lot of difference.

More than a quarter of the Israeli population is not Jewish.

Aren't the Zionists forever building new settlements on Palestinian land and on the Golan?

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Aleks

Oct 12Author

Interesting discussion :)) Keep on guys :))

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Johannes S. Herbst

Oct 12

Ask any Palestinian who ist a citizen of Israel, If he likes to live in Gaza or the West Bank.

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Come and See

Elem Klimov ANNOTATED BY PATRICE GREANVILLE

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Kim Iverson Calls Out Super-Zionist RFK Jr. / Ajamu Baraka calls out Cory Booker for his service to the White Power Structure

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Ali Abunimah, Nour Jaghama & Atheer Yacoub React to Israeli GENOCIDE

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Aleks of Black Mountain Analysis looks at the crisis in Israel (Part 1)

ALEKS Black Mountain Analysis OpEds

Israel

Genesis [i]

References

The Beginning

Violence

Beneficiaries

"Instead, it was beneficial to divide the Arabs into many smaller states and having them in constant conflict with each other and Israel."

Two States

Determinism

Explosion

The End or The Solution

Opinion

Israel

Status Update [i]

Short Update

A few topics

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Elem Klimov
ANNOTATED BY PATRICE GREANVILLE

COME AND SEE: REACTIONS BY REVIEWERS AND FELLOW FILMMAKERS

1. Roger Deakins on "Come and See" (Elem Klimov, 1985)

Kim Iversen
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