US war against Iran to contain China?
CHARLES MCKELVEY
Billy Bob's Blowback Roundtable
THE WORLD THROUGH AN INDEPENDENT LEFT LENS
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Part Two
(A DISCUSSION IN TWO PARTS)
US war against Iran to contain China?
The dialectical march of history from colonialism to the equality of nations
Wars and rumors of war
Billy Bob, host of the YouTube program Blowback: Exposing Imperial Decline, sent me his piece making a number of predictions concerning the near future of world dynamics. He predicts, in essence, that the USA will soon launch a war against Iran in order to contain China.
Billy Bob bases his prediction on the assumption that “Western global hegemony perceives itself to be under threat from China’s rapidly growing economic power” plus a second assumption that “the US will implement their plan of containment against China, sooner rather than later, rather than resign itself to an inevitable multipolar world where China becomes too big and too powerful to ever hope to contain.”
Billy Bob maintains that the plan to contain China involves creating a global economic catastrophe and deep economic depression that would weaken China’s commerce with 120 trading partners throughout the world. The specific strategy for provoking the deep depression involves the launching of a military attack against Iran, expecting that Iran would respond by blocking the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting global energy supplies, 20% of which transit the Strait. This retaliatory action by Iran would provide the USA with “the justification for a large-scale attack on Iran, perhaps involving nuclear weapons.”
If Trump wins, Billy Bob maintains, alongside the implementation of the already planned war against Iran, the ruling elite would induce Trump to protect Israel, which would empower Israel “to engage in even more terrorism, ethnic cleansing, and land theft, in order to expand their borders throughout Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and Egypt.” This would be justified before the American people on the grounds that Israel is a U.S. ally in the war with Iran. Billy Bob suggests that perhaps Europe would join in the attack on Iran, including the use of nuclear weapons, to deter Arab countries from becoming involved. Thus, Israel would become a stronger U.S. ally in the region, functioning as a regional superpower, with U.S. and European backing.
Billy Bob thinks that the U.S. will try to neutralize Russia by offering a generous peace settlement with respect to Ukraine and ending Western sanctions, with the condition that Russia orient its economy toward the West and distance itself from China. Should Russia decline, the West would widen the war against Iran to include Russia.
At the same time, the USA would impose a trade embargo and a naval blockade against China. Billy Bob notes that the island archipelagos that surround China’s shipping lanes enable U.S. naval forces, with the backing of Taiwan, to block China’s trade with the world.
As can be seen, the essence of the U.S. plan would be to use military action to block China’s trade with the world, thus compensating for the U.S. incapacity to economically compete with China for trade with the nations of the world. The USA would economically suffer from the consequent disruptions in global commerce, but it would be able to use access to markets and resources in Latin America and the Caribbean to weather more effectively than China the negative consequences for world commerce of the U.S. war against Iran. The nations of Latin America and the Caribbean would be weakened by the disruption of global commerce with China and the Middle East, so the current Latin American and Caribbean drive toward sovereign independence from the USA would be broken, giving the USA greater access to the economies of its neighboring nations to the South.
Billy Bob notes that both Republicans and Democrats have been oriented to the weakening of China through military action that would derail China’s expanding global trade. The Democrats have attempted to use Ukraine to defeat Russia, thus making possible Russia’s fragmentation into smaller vassal states, thereby eliminating one of China’s most important commercial (and strategic) partners. Later, in the Democratic plan, the USA would go after China through Iran. In contrast, the Republicans, with strong support from the Jewish lobby, are more oriented to weakening China through war with Iran and military support for Israel, thus blocking maritime oil routes originating in the Middle East, as a prelude to a trade embargo and naval blockade of China. With the failure of the Western proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, the Democrats are increasingly oriented to containing China through war with Iran and the disruption of oil transportation originating from the Middle East.
§
The dialectical march of history from colonialism to the equality of nations
In consideration of U.S. appreciation of the limits of military power, the current U.S. military activities in China’s theater and military support for Ukraine and Israel could be interpreted as an unconventional war that is already underway. As described by Cuban scholars, there is a military component of unconventional war, which includes a threatening military presence, surgical strikes, and proxy wars. The military dimension is accompanied by other components that in many cases are more important: economic sanctions, financial restrictions, ideological distortions, and support for opposition movements. The multidimensional unconventional war, launched without announcement during the last two years of the Obama Administration, seeks to promote political instability and economic weakening in nations that reject Western imperialism and are seeking to construct an alternative world order. China is the most important of the anti-imperialist nations, because of the vitality and large size of its economy, combined with Xi Jinping’s clear promotion on the international stage of an alternative world order characterized by win-win cooperation and mutually beneficial trade among nations.
Whether or not the ongoing unconventional war is a prelude to a war against Iran, the current situation of worldwide conflict underscores the importance of consciousness of what is unfolding in the Global South and East. If we understand well what is occurring, we see that China is not seeking to become a dominating power in the world-system, displacing the United States. Rather, China and other leading anti-imperialist nations are trying to create a world-system in which no nation dominates or uses domination for exploitation and economic advantage. The anti-imperialist nations maintain that a world-system of competing imperialisms can no longer contribute to human progress and cannot ensure a sustainable future for humanity. This suggests that the issue of the rise of China ought to be reframed.
Consciousness and solid understanding of the process and worldview of anti-imperialist construction from the Global South and East would enable the American people and the American power elite to see a third possibility, beyond, on the one hand, war against Iran and the disruption of world commerce in order to weaken China, and on the other hand, a degrading deference and submissiveness to Chinese power. The third option involves adaptation to the new type of world-system that is emerging.
Understood in historical and theoretical terms, the emerging world order is the culmination of the modern dialectic that was initiated by Western European domination of the world, beginning in the sixteenth century, and reaching its completion by the beginning of the twentieth century. European colonial domination gave rise to its antithesis, which took the form of anti-colonial resistance by and for the colonized. The anti-colonial movements accepted as necessary significant political, economic, and cultural dimensions of the colonial process, but they proposed to transform the imposed world structures in ways that protected their rights as nations and peoples, including their rights to sovereign equality as nation-states, to modern economic development, and to self-determination. The anti-colonial movements were thus pointing the way to a synthesis of the perspectives of the colonizer and the colonized.
The United States, either through war with Iran to contain China, or through unconventional war to weaken all anti-imperialist states, or both, is seeking to stop the dialectical march of modern history. The United States can do so only through destruction, which also could lead to its own demise. It would be far more dignified for the American republic to participate positively in the second stage of the modern synthesis, in which cooperation and mutually beneficial trade are established as an international norm. In doing so, the United States would once again be one of the world’s leading nations, and it could interpret its enlightened turn as the fulfillment of the promise of democracy contained in the founding of the American republic.
In the emerging new world order, there are ample possibilities for the defense and promotion of American national economic interests. In spite of its decline relative to the emerging economies, the United States continues to have one of the largest and technologically advanced economies of the world. It could play an important role in fostering win-win economic relations with other nations, and this would be welcomed by the nations of the Global South, which have proclaimed for six decades not only the need for South-South cooperation but also the importance of North-South cooperation, precisely because of the advanced character of the nations of the North, which of course is a legacy of centuries of colonial and neocolonial domination. The modern dialectical synthesis can attain its most perfect completion through the participation of nations of the North that have arrived to an enlightened understanding of the common interests of humanity.
The enlightened turn of the USA toward North-South cooperation could occur in two ways. First, members of the American power elite could arrive to understanding, enabling them to lead the nation toward the development of mutually beneficial relations with China and other nations. This would have very positive consequences for the American people and the nation as a whole. And it would enable the elite to consolidate its control of American political institutions, at least for a good part of the twenty-first century, inasmuch as all would benefit from a world of peace and prosperity.
The other possibility is the continued destructive myopia of the power elite, leading to an awakening of consciousness among the people, taking them beyond rebellion with respect to isolated issues to a non-violent revolution that seeks the taking of control of the institutions of the nation from the power elite through the imperfect electoral process. In this scenario, the delegates of the people would lead the nation on the necessary road of North-South cooperation.
For the people to take political power, they will need good arguments in favor of a dignified alternative to war in response to the emergence of China, an alternative that does not involve surrender. If good arguments are provided, the people are likely to support an alternative to war, because the people do not want war. If good explanations in defense of dignified adaptation to the emerging world order are presented to the people, they can be mobilized to prevent a war against Iran, or if necessary, to use opposition to a pending or launched war as the key proposal in a platform that seeks to take control of the nation’s institutions by the people, taking the levers of power from the hands of the elite.
It might be tempting for those of us who are socialists to hope that the power elite does not awaken and that the people will see their unpreparedness to govern the nation, stimulating a non-violent revolution that takes political power from the hands of the elite. But this would be a politically immature hope. A scenario involving war against emerging nations combined with political conflict at home would have many risks, where many bad things could happen. If, driven by concern with respect to the unfolding of events, the elite takes an enlightened turn toward peace and cooperation, we who are socialists ought to support this initiative, seeking to unify the people in the new direction. The question of the distribution of power within the American republic can be addressed in another historical moment.
On the other hand, if the power elite persists in its myopia and aggression, seeking to block the emergence of a more sustainable world-system, we socialists should view it as an opportunity to forge creative ideological conceptualizations and political strategies that would propel the [non-violent] taking of power by the people.
For Part One of this discussion, please see:
US Empire’s “China Containment Plan”—At Any Cost?
The obsession to check the rise of peer powers by the American Hegemon is a lethal threat to all humanity.
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ABOUT BILLY BOBBilly Bob, who serves as Editor at Large with The Greanville Post, is a dedicated anti-imperialist activist and blogger. He hosts the Blowback roundatable. You can reach him at his Facebook page HERE.
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On Cusp of US Election, a Discussion of Potential Outcomes
NOTE: Unknown persons or parties sabotaged (and deleted) this article when first published on 31 Oct. 2024. We are now reposting it below. Unfortunately, this type of severe, hi-tech, harassment is now almost normal for our site, and we need to spend considerable time and money repairing it. Which, we believe, is what these malefactors obviously want.
On Cusp of US Election, a Discussion of Potential Outcomes
Today's Nima, Wolff, Hudson Chat
Professors Hudson and Wolff have discussed the upcoming US Election on several previous occasions with Nima, while this session specifically focuses on US political dynamics, issues foreign and domestic that are being completely ignored, and what the outcomes might be depending on who is declared the winner. And no, there’s no talk of the election being stolen by on side or the other or what the social response might be depending on who wins. The number of excellent ideas and insights are too many to list. Dr. Wolff carries the show because he has somewhat better insights and is able to articulate them better. Dr. Wolff provides one of the more interesting points that’s revealed at the 19:00 mark of the 80-minute podcast:
The Hegelian Moment of American Politics: Cold War Isolationism of the Other as the initial thesis has matured and become its antithesis: the isolation of the US as it’s now the Other compared with the Global Majority.
Yes, the discussion prior to that declaration is key, so don’t skip it. As with their previous chats about the election, they talk about the issues neither candidate or their party wants to discuss and would prefer to keep buried underneath the Establishment Narrative. But the discussion is also about the world since the Outlaw US Empire is certainly global. The key factor is the Empire’s declining and is thus desperate to halt that decline, which it’s doing at the expense of its vassals in Europe but also in Asia. However, the Empire’s internal nature that’s been present from its beginning is one main factor in its decline—Exceptionalism where all else are Others, even those thinking themselves allies—Kissinger’s axiom applies: It’s better to be an enemy than a friend of America.
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Profs. Richard D. Wolff • Michael Hudson
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Richard D. Wolff & Michael Hudson: US Next President Faces IMPOSSIBLE ODDS: Middle East & Ukraine
Michael Hudson is President of The Institute for the Study of Long-Term Economic Trends (ISLET), a Wall Street Financial Analyst, Distinguished Research Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. He is the author of Super-Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (Editions 1968, 2003, 2021), ‘and forgive them their debts’ (2018), J is for Junk Economics (2017), Killing the Host (2015), The Bubble and Beyond (2012), Trade, Development and Foreign Debt (1992 & 2009) and of The Myth of Aid (1971), amongst many others. ISLET engages in research regarding domestic and international finance, national income and balance-sheet accounting with regard to real estate. We also engage in the economic history of the ancient Near East. Michael acts as an economic advisor to governments worldwide including China, Iceland and Latvia on finance and tax law. He gives presentations on various topics at conferences and meetings and can be booked here. Listen to some of his many radio interviews to hear his hyperspeed analysis of the geo-political machinations of global economics. Travel costs and a per diem are appreciated. https://michael-hudson.com/
Richard D. Wolff is Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Massachusetts, Amherst where he taught economics from 1973 to 2008. He is currently a Visiting Professor in the Graduate Program in International Affairs of the New School University, New York City. Earlier, he taught economics at Yale University (1967-1969) and at the City College of the City University of New York (1969-1973). In 1994, he was a Visiting Professor of Economics at the University of Paris (France), I (Sorbonne). Wolff was also a regular lecturer at the Brecht Forum in New York City. (https://www.rdwolff.com/about)
Richard D. Wolff & Michael Hudson | How the U.S. Took Over the World: The End of International Law!
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Oct 14Liked by Ramin Mazaheri
Pardon my ignorance, but who was the 3rd in USA (besides Sam Mena and Aaron Bushnell) to commit self immolation in protest of the Israeli genocide?
Oct 14Author
He was actually the 4th person - I forgot about the Atlanta case. That person did not have fatal injuries.
Matt Nelson died days after setting himself on fire in Boston outside the Israeli embassy on September 11.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/man-attempts-self-immolation-at-pro-palestine-protest-near-white-house/3352692#:~:text=Four%20people%20so%20far%20have,The%20person%20was%20critically%20injured.
Oct 14·edited Oct 14
@Ramin Mazaheri
Thank you for your response. No, I never heard of either of the other two.
While I don't watch the officially endorsed MSM such as CNN/Faux & etc. or read the NY Times, Washington Post & such, I DO follow a variety of other alternative sources- Yet never heard of either event? "That's interesting", as Captain Jack Sparrow might say.
https://youtu.be/DuvGPVjzy9M?si=BT1rxjyTz1yPhrzC
Oct 14
I don't think the immolation is a very good idea. It is a symbolic act, but he is taking on far more than is necessary, a show at great personal cost to a lot of people about something that they don't care an awful lot about in any case, well not to the extent that Mena does anyway. Then it gets hidden by the MSM so very few are aware of his sacrifice in any case.