Larry C. Johnson: Israel Losing and Desperate – Russia Destroying Ukraine’s Army

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NIMA chats with Larry Johnson


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Lili News 029
  • In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
  • Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
  • Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.


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Laith Marouf – Israeli Pager Explosion Attacks in Lebanon; Hezbollah Massive Destruction in N Israel

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Laith Marouf - Israeli Pager Explosion Attacks in Lebanon; Hezbollah Massive Destruction in N Israel
ADDENDUM
 


Lili News 029
  • In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
  • Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
  • Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.


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How I Was Colonized

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INDRAJIT


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I've been reading Frantz Fanon and I feel both seen and condemned. Fanon describes a type of colonized intellectual, which was me once upon a time. He also describes a trajectory for their awakening, which I seem to be following. It's a bit annoying cause I could have just read this instead of making a fool of myself in public for decades.

The Colonized Intellectual

When I was 21, I returned to sender. I finished my education in Canada/America and moved 'back' to Sri Lanka. I put 'back' in quotes because I hadn't lived there since I was four. As a young man, I thought I knew it all, but I had no idea. I had an education but I didn't realize how much I had to unlearn, and how much sources I trusted were actively lying to me. It's only now, as an adult, finally reading Fanon at my wife's insistence, that I understand who I was. I was a certain sort of colonized man, and quite unconsciously. As Fanon said,

During decolonization, certain colonized intellectuals have established a dialogue with the bourgeoisie of the colonizing country. During this period the indigenous population is seen as a blurred mass. The few “native” personalities whom the colonialist bourgeois have chanced to encounter have had insufficient impact to alter their current perception and nuance their thinking. During the period of liberation, however, the colonialist bourgeoisie frantically seeks contact with the colonized “elite.” It is with this elite that the famous dialogue on values is established.

This is the position I found myself in, in ‘dialogue’ with western embassies and foreign correspondents, going to cocktails and dinner parties, because I spoke the language of English and the dialect of human rights, democracy, and free markets fluently. I thought myself highly original, despite repeating paper-thin insights from The Economist from the same hymn book as everyone else. As Fanon said, “The colonized intellectual accepted the cogency of these ideas and there in the back of his mind stood a sentinel on duty guarding the Greco-Roman pedestal.”

But I hadn't even read the classics, I just got those 'values' photocopied 10,000 times through the mass media, until they were a meaningless paste. This is what Fanon called “the famous dialogue on values.” It was really a monologue repeated between people at cocktail parties. I wish I'd read more widely back then, because I would have read my own story and perhaps skipped a few chapters. Back then, I was just a certain type of colonized man, the embarrassing one.

Fanon said, “When the colonialist bourgeoisie realizes it is impossible to maintain its domination over the colonies it decides to wage a rearguard campaign in the fields of culture, values, and technology, etc, and I have seen all this in action. Those were precisely the points that I interfaced with the west. The US Embassy's cultural attaché invited me to do a photo exhibition (I declined because I couldn't afford printing anything), I did journalism training through the German Embassy, and I met people from Facebook, even after they'd killed people in my own country. This makes me cringe today, but at the time I was oblivious. I thought these were the good guys, because I still believed what they said and not what they did. Thus, I feel both seen and condemned by Fanon when he says,

In its narcissistic monologue the colonialist bourgeoisie, by way of its academics, had implanted in the minds of the colonized that the essential values—meaning Western values —remain eternal despite all errors attributable to man.

That really was the monologue implanted in my head. I remember having the shower thought, ‘well, America doesn't live up to its values, but it has them as a sort of map for the future.’ Like lying was important because it was at least aspirational. But I was being too clever by half. They were just lying, and I was lying to myself about it. I'd blame myself if I wasn't so utterly predictable.

The Color Revolutionary

Fanon said, “The intellectual who, for his part, has adopted the abstract, universal values of the colonizer is prepared to fight so that colonist and colonized can live in peace in a new world.” And, indeed, I unwittingly underwent training to be a color revolutionary.

[The Gene Sharp Trap]

One day, I was idly looking through some noticeboard for opportunities because journalists don't have many. I saw a free training trip to Spain, to study non-violent resistance. This was just after the Arab Spring and it was all very exciting. I applied, got in, and they paid my flight and hotel to Madrid, Spain. I could have never afforded this on my own and I felt quite lucky. In hindsight, I was just a mark.

That event was totally CIA, in hindsight. It was run by a guy from the US military and government, who was funded by some dodgy financier. As a journalist, did I look any of this up at the time? Uh, no, I was more interested in going to the Prado (which was excellent). At that training I met some cool people from Egypt and Yemen and Mexico (shout-out George Clooney), but in hindsight, holy shit! They were training sleeper cells for regime change, and they trained me! Writing all of this stuff is honestly quite implicating and embarrassing and my only excuse is that I wasn't thinking. All I really thought was a free trip to Madrid.

The carrot of flattery and the stick of blackmail, that's what the US calls this public diplomacy. Colonization has always been a resource light enterprise. They want the colonized to do the colonizing.

The Colonial History

In 20/20 hindsight that's how it always was. We always colonized ourselves. As Ian Barrow says in his history of the East India Company, “It is one of the great ironies of the Company’s history that its Indian empire was effectively won by its Indian troops.”The corporate army's officers were all British and the grunts were Indian. We've been cucking ourselves since day one. India's population was nearly 200 million but it was oppressed by less than 45,000 Britishers. As Barrow said, In 1830, for example, the Company garrisoned 36,409 British soldiers but employed only 3,500 civil servants and permitted just 2,149 businessmen and other Europeans to live in India.”

The colonizers of the Raj played political Jenga, corrupting local elites with imported goods, education for their children, and filthy lucre from the enslavement of their own people. Splinter colonization is still the policy of the day, divide and conquer the masses using local elites. It goes back to the great grand pappy of White Empire. As Cornell and Matthews write about the Romans, The political organization of the developing provinces was achieved through the existing upper classes.”It is, as my historical thesis goes, same shit, different day.

The British called this divide and conquer, and the Americans do the same thing with better marketing. They call the process democratizing, encouraging free speech, human rights, but it's really just divide and conquer. And colonized individuals like me were used to divide. I feel sick to be part of that history, but that was me.

Decolonization

But Fanon wrote about an arc for the colonized man, as the world decolonized around him. Fanon describes my own intellectual evolution when he says,

All the Mediterranean values, the triumph of the individual, of enlightenment and Beauty turn into pale, lifeless trinkets. All those discourses appear a jumble of dead words. Those values which seemed to ennoble the soul prove worthless because they have nothing in common with the real-life struggle in which the people are engaged.

As times get hard and money gets tight, western liberals are literally committing genocide. They piously look down on Trump as the 'greater evil', while not looking in a mirror while they commit genocide. What are you going to tell me about lesser evil while I see kids with their heads and eyes blown off every day? When Democrats just continue Republican policies with more pious banalities? Just a jumble of words atop a mountain of dead bodies.

Fanon said, “The colonized intellectual accepted the cogency of these ideas and there in the back of his mind stood a sentinel on duty guarding the Greco-Roman pedestal. But during the struggle for liberation, when the colonized intellectual touches base again with his people, this artificial sentinel is smashed to smithereens.” I have truly felt this smashing in my mind. We have arrived at a point where the conmen of history no longer even pretend to believe in any values, but the colonized men actually do.

Asides

Today, as James Baldwin says, “All the Western nations are caught in a lie, the lie of their pretended humanism: this means that their history has no moral justification, and that the West has no moral authority.” It cheers me to see such clarity but depresses me that Baldwin said this decades ago. How much time have we lost, how many lives, to see what was already seen?

Decolonization is not merely a political process, it's psychological. I don't even know if I'm better yet, the mind virus runs deep. When I read Fanon I feel both abominable and absolved. Abominable because I was a colonized intellectual for so long, and absolved because I can feel decolonization also coursing through me. I like to think I arrived at my own conclusions, but I increasingly think conclusions arrived at me.


Why I'm Voting AKD


Sri Lanka is finally having a Presidential election, after overthrowing our President and getting some unelected rogue to rob us for two years now. The stability the purchased with more loans has so impoverished the people that, for the first time in history, the 'commies' have a chance at electoral victory. I dunno if I'd put my money on it, but that's where I'll put my vote. My only worry is that they're not communist enough. This is an FAQ as to why I'm voting for the National People's Power alliance, led by Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the JVP.

Who is the NPP?

The NPP is a coalition of leftist parties in Sri Lanka, led by the JVP. Their Presidential candidate is Anura Kumara Dissanayake (commonly called AKD).

Hasn't the JVP killed a lot of people?

The JVP started as a revolutionary party which tried to seize power by force. They have killed a lot of people. However, the JVP has actually killed less people than the other parties, by a factor of 10 at least.

Both parties in the old two-party system united around killing commies and Tamil nationalists and they killed much, much more. The UNP and SLFP killed tens of thousands in both the south and north, both Sinhalese and Tamils. The JVP's anti-state violence pales in comparison to the state violence unleashed by the ruling class in response. It's a morbid metric, but if you're voting based on who's killed the least people, that's actually the JVP.

Isn't communism bad?

The JVP is no longer communist enough for me, but let's address the communism in the room. Communism is, historically, the fastest way to develop and delivers the best health, education, and other vital outcomes for the most people.

China is a communist country and they're the richest nation in the world now (PPP FTW). As Uncle Deng said in 1987, Poverty is not socialism. We must support socialism, but we must move ahead in building a socialism which is truly superior to capitalism.” They've actually done it, ahead of schedule. Just look at any Chinese metro/car/train compared to the absolutely crumbling and stagnant western models. Capitalism tries to take credit for China's rise, but I invite you to read anything.

As Michael Hudson says, the main difference between communism and capitalism is that in communism the state controls capital and in capitalism capital controls the state. In China the Communist Party is quite in control and while they're not dictatorial, they do dictate. They call their model ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics,’ and Sri Lanka's official name is the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. We shouldn't shy from declaring economic independence ourselves.

Historically, communism actually enabled countries to seize control of their resources and labor and to industrialize within one generation. Communism was a way to economic independence, not the illusion of political independence while still being debt slaves to the same people that colonized us. Communism has delivered better health, education, and housing to its people and many of the ills ascribed to communism are because of capitalists attacking and sanctioning them. Communism is not a bad word, it's just bad-mouthed by the worst people. The IMF, for example, is always headed by a European and has not actually developed anyone, they're just colonialism administrators under a new name. Communism of one sort or another is the surest way to decolonize your economy, and that's a step Sri Lanka has yet to take.

Is the JVP communist?

The JVP (the main part of the NPP), unfortunately, is not a very communist party. The JVP started as a revolutionary party which tried to violently overthrow the government, but they were killed pretty comprehensively and reformed as a regular political party. I'd describe them as more center-left than anything. The hardcore Marxists left for the FSP long ago, unfortunately. I guess you could call the JVP commies, I don't consider it an insult, but not enough for my taste.

What would the NPP do?

The NPP has said “Developing a production-based economy is our singular aim and guiding principle.” This addresses what plagues Sri Lanka, not debt per se but lack of productivity. As the NPP says, “due to the misappropriation of borrowed funds and the failure to invest them in economically productive projects, the economy did not grow in corresponding to the increase in debt.” Successive governments have taken out loans to fund bad infrastructure ideas (Mahinda Rajapaksa) or just new debt to pay off old debt (Ranil Wickremesinghe) without developing the productive capacity of the country at all. It was this unproductive regime that collapsed the country in 2022, and only the NPP identifies production as the core problem.

The unelected President (Ranil) currently running the place wants credit for stabilizing the country, but what has he done? He's stabilized the rich on the backs of the poor, while serving foreign moneylenders above all. Ranil took out most of the ruinous debt in the first place (rolling over the Rajapaksa loans) and he has not changed any real aspect of the economy at all. All he's done is rob 200x more than he did the first time, without even concrete to show for it.

Describing this sham stability, the NPP said, “it was mainly an outcome of unpaid interest, debt instalments in arrears, import restrictions, remittances from overseas Sri Lankans, and receipt of IMF extended fund facility, rather than a result of proactive and sustainable measures of the government.” And they continue, “Despite continued rhetoric about controlling inflation, the reality is that the prices of goods and services have risen to unaffordable levels. The ultimate result is that people’s real income has gone down so low that basic human needs cannot be fulfilled. As a result of destructive politics, about 26% of the population has been dragged below the poverty line.

I find little to disagree with here. There is no productive economy without children that eat enough and most of our children are going hungry under this regime. There's no forward planning here, just more procrastinating. In order for things to change you have to actually change things. The state has to get involved with industry, that's the only way industrialization has ever happened! Not just in communist countries, but in the capitalist countries as well. Only the NPP even has a basic idea of this. Everyone else just says leave it up to the economists, as if there's some magic monetary settings we can change. But nothing works like that. To do something, you have to actually do some things.

This is the vital difference between political democracy and economic democracy. Countries can have political independence without economic independence, and right now, our economic policy is literally run by foreign bureaucrats from the IMF, with a comprador elite focused on their own corruption. They talk about state-owned enterprise or state planning being corrupt, but who's doing the corrupting! They're breaking the system and then saying the system needs to be sold off for parts because it's not working. This is why people protested for system change, which only the NPP comes close to delivering.

As their manifesto says, “The NPP’s economic policy framework focuses on economic democracy.” I know it takes a lot to deprogram neoliberal propaganda that people are too stupid to run economies and must leave everything to the capitalists, but just look at the capitalists countries today. America is desperately (and badly) trying state-led industrial policy themselves (in semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing), complete with tariffs and heavy subsidies. They tell us not to print money while printing the most money in their history! We have to, after decades of foolishly believing our former colonizers had changed, declare economic independence. We have to get the state deeply involved in the economy, that's the meaning of economic democracy. Taking control of the state, and using it to control our own destiny.

Especially with climate collapse and the need to marshal scarce resources towards what matters (health and education). To execute any big change of course you need a planned economy. Otherwise you're just planning to fail. I don't think the JVP goes far enough in this regard, but they at least have a concept of the general direction.

What else would the NPP do?

The country has many more issues, but you can read the manifesto yourself on those. I'll just highlight a few points that resonated with me. The bullet points are all theirs:

  • NPP regards education, health, and transportation as essential public services and plans to increase resource allocation in all these fields.
  • Strengthening the state share in public transport and creating an efficient public transport system in the country.

These points are important because, far from being costs to a government as foreign capitalists would have you believe, health and education are investments. If you don't invest in your people you have nothing, you're just selling off your country for parts and waiting to die. You have to invest your way out of a crisis, something western economists have known since the Great Depression, but they keep prescribing austerity to us colonies. It doesn't work. You have to invest your way out of crisis, and the base of all productivity is the health and education of your people.

If the NPP may continue,

  • We will move away from anthropocentric thinking that places man as the sole owner of the earth.

I have never heard this anywhere in mainstream Sri Lankan politics and it's vitally important, that it's not just about people. We are not the owners of this island but mere custodians.

  • For the first time in Sri Lanka’s post-independence history, governance will shift from the control of a few corrupt elite families to a people’s government. From the presidency to every representative body and operational mechanism in the country, all positions will be free from elite family connections and will be filled by the children of ordinary citizens produced through free education.
  • Renegotiate with the IMF on the content of a more palatable and strengthened programme and how it is implemented for salvaging the poor and deprived people from that painful condition.
  • State support for the local production of all possible food items within the country.

The JVP, as a party, is from the poor. Their candidate, Anura Kumara Dissanayake grew up poor whereas the other political leaders are from old feudal families and/or are literally the children/nephews of former Presidents. Only the JVP has any concept of how poor people live and suffer, and it is these masses that actually have to be mobilized to have a productive economy at all. One thing I must note is that the time for industrialization has probably passed, we are headed into a future where food and water will be the important resources, and the NPP at least has a sense that we need to, at a minimum, be able to feed ourselves. As they continue,

  • We consider Sri Lanka must enhance local production and transition to an export-driven economy to navigate the current economic crisis successfully. This requires a comprehensive short and long-term industrial development plan.
  • A rapid national program will be launched to add 2,000 MW of solar PV capacity within the next five (5) years, as a strategic measure to avert the impending energy crisis in the near future.
  • Customers, including low income households and small and medium enterprises, whose electricity supply remains disconnected due to non-payment of exorbitant bills unjustly imposed over 2022-2024 will be reconnected, with remaining dues charged on a fair instalment plan.
  • The contribution of the railway service has dropped to 5% in the transport sector. The portion of the SLTB in bus passenger service has dropped to 14%. Around 55% of the citizens opt to use private vehicles to fulfil their transport needs due to the decline in public transport, and they have to spend a large amount of their income on transport as a result. Hence the goal is to provide 70% of the public’s transport needs through public transportation within 5 years.

Sri Lanka's 2022 collapse meant, primarily, that we lost access to imported (dollar-denominated) energy. The current government has done nothing about the source of that problem, which is that we don't produce enough of our own energy and waste much of what we import on inefficient things cars. To avoid further crashes we can't just do financial jiggery-pokery like declaring meaningless accounting surpluses. We have to actually change the structure of the economy—specifically energy and transport—which the NPP is proposing.

In terms of rights and wrongs, the NPP says,

  • The inefficiency of public service and the associated bribery, corruption, fraud, and misappropriation of public property are the inevitable results of the ruling class and the system. They are not tragedies brought by public servants on their own accord.
  • Promptly completing investigations into political killings and abductions of journalists, sportspersons and others that have not been solved for a long time and implementing the law against the criminals
  • Ensuring the quality of the food given to prisoners
  • Investigating and serving justice to the political assassinations, disappearances and assaults that happened in the past in all areas including the North and East.
  • Releasing all political prisoners and ensure their free socialisation.
  • Abolition of all oppressive acts including the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and ensuring civil rights of people in all parts of the country

For decades Sri Lanka has been ruled by a rapacious class which has now handed power off to their children and grandchildren. All the ruling parties have stolen and killed and then blamed it on the inefficient government sector which they themselves have corrupted. This ruling class has become so greedy that they have even destroyed their own political parties and are running as independents. Now all the old rats are running between different ships while the country sinks. They can't even hold their own parties together and have no greater ideas for the country than more of the same. Why would you trust someone to hold a country together that can't even hold their own party? Which gets me to my next point.

Isn't the JVP too inexperienced?

The JVP is actually the oldest political party running in this election! The UNP, the feudal founding party, has splintered, and the SLFP doesn't exist anymore. The JVP are actually the most established political party, and they have the strongest grassroots network, the most active women's wing, and are by far the most organized around something other than personality and corruption.

How would they do it? Aren't we broke?

China developed from their lowest point. They started out poorer than us. The UK developed its (now decayed) social programs after World War II, when it was the most broke. Development is fundamentally a matter of will, and you absolutely can and should print your own currency to employ your own people. This does not have to cause inflation if you invest it in productive assets. People say government programs caused Sri Lanka's collapse but they did not, it was foreign borrowing from the same old colonizers. Economic independence is the way out, not how we got in at all. Remember that our crisis was denominated in dollars, not rupees. Internationally, we can hitch onto rising Asia instead of going down with the falling west. What the Sri Lanka lacks most urgently is leadership, which is why we need to fundamentally change leadership this election.

Will they take my second house/business/money?

Unfortunately, no. The JVP has become thoroughly domesticated and is no longer a revolutionary party at all. If they were a revolutionary party they would have takenpower during the protests, not waited over two years for elections.

Personally, I think they JVP should be much more ruthless than they are, but they're not. I think that foreign forces will try to destabilize/overthrow any leftist government and you can't trust elections. But the JVP simply isn't that party anymore, and haven't been for decades now. They will, unfortunately, govern like a center-left party within our existing constitution and laws. They're not going to tax or seize anyone's wealth away or smash the landed classes, though I wish they would. Sri Lanka's rich are deeply corrupt, blow away most of the country's foreign exchange, and I think they (we) deserve a slap. The NPP, unfortunately, won't deliver it.

Why are you voting NPP, in conclusion?

To me, the election breaks clearly along class lines. The rich (like me) will vote for Ranil or Sajith and the poor will vote for AKD. Both of the rich candidates will follow the same basic neoliberal policies of the past 40 years that caused the collapse in the first place. Borrowing, neglecting our own productive capacity, and kicking the can down the road. But this is the end of the road. It may be too late to turn, we may not turn hard enough, but the NPP are the only people that will even try a different direction. The reason they're even a possibility now is because so many more people have been made poor. The poor don't need to read this or anything else. They hear the truth from their children's rumbling tummies clear enough.

The stability that Ranil has given is on the backs of the poor. The poverty rate has doubled, most children do not eat enough, and many parents have not eaten an egg in years (any protein is given to the youngest child). Meanwhile, rich people like me are partying and consuming foreign exchange more than ever, and it makes me sick. I'm a class traitor and I'm with the poor. That's the big reason I'm voting NPP. They're from the poor, they're for the poor, and we're a poor country. We can't keep using the credit card so a few people can pretend to be rich on the backs of our children, we actually have to change leadership, change our economy, and change direction to achieve common prosperity for all. Call it communism if you want, the communists are rich now.

I don't want to be rich while Sri Lankan children are passing out in school cause they don't eat enough. That's no way to build a future, and the children, as James Baldwin said, belong to all of us. The NPP has a hard road ahead of them, but at least they have a compass. That's why I'm voting X . If you don't feel it in your own stomach, then check your heart.


 


Lili News 029
  • In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
  • Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
  • Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.


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VITAL READS: Green Lighting Long-Range Missiles, and the Future World Order (Revised)

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OLIVER BOYD-BARRETT


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Green Lighting Long-Range Missiles, and the Future World Order (Revised)
 Mid-week of the week of September 8-14, many analysts, including myself, had expected with a high degree of certainty that the US would greenlight the use of Western precision-guided long-range missiles on targets in Russia.

At the time of writing on September 20 this had not yet occurred. The main reason for this reluctance to proceed has been widely interpreted across alternative media as a Western reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement in Saint Petersburg on Thursday September 12 in which he declared, in effect, that any such greenlighting of long-range missiles on Russian targets would be considered by Russia to be a direct participation by NATO in its otherwise proxy war against Russia over Ukraine. Only NATO, he pointed out, is capable of using these weapons, only NATO has the satellite reconnaissance capability necessary to navigate them, and the engineering skills to maintain, launch and fire these systems.

In short, NATO would have embarked on World War Three, and Russia would respond accordingly.

Did Washington back down after Putin’s statement? Did we witness a Pentagon coup that day against the State Department and White House? Was Washington reluctant to proceed knowing that Israel was about to trigger mass murder and mayhem in Lebanon on September 17 and 18, which has so far caused 3,400 casualties and 34 dead as a result of Israeli-rigged pagers (a form of booby-trapping that is a violation of an international treaty to which Israel is a signatory), and that the US might very soon find itself engaged in a war on Iran on behalf of Israeli Zionists? (So far, Washington concedes only that it was notified of an upcoming “ difficult operation” a few hours in advance which if true would be a catastrophic failure of Western intelligence).

Did it simply decide not to go public but to give the green light anway, at least to the British? Does Russia think that the West will provide this green light? Yes, according to a review of Russian media by Gilbert Doctorow, Moscow generally assumes that Washington has already given the green light or will do so soon.

Did Washington already actually respond to pressure for use of long-range missiles by ordering or permitting the firing of some form of successful ballistic missile attack on Russia’s ammunition depot at Toropets, 400 kilometers west of Moscow on September 18? Ukraine claimed this was the result of a 100-drone attack. But many if not almost all of these would have been shot down, and drones typically do not have anything like the impact as was inflicted on Toropets. Even less likely is it that drones would inflict significant damage on sophisticated concrete bunkers, reinforced at Toropets in 2018 to withstand even a nuclear attack.

The nearest NATO country to Toropets is not Ukraine but Latvia, and Latvia is a much more logical source for the attack, thus suggesting that NATO’s direct participation in what was formerly its proxy war with Russia over Ukraine is now established.

The reported use by what the Houthis in Yemen claimed was a hypersonic missile (others say it was a long-range ballistic missile) for an attack on Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion airport on September 15 may be a signal from Russia of how its supply of weapons to the West’s enemies, in retaliation for any Western move towards the use of long-range missiles against Russia, will quickly reconfigure global geopolitics to the West’s disadvantage.

Some western analysts take comfort from the fact that Russia, they say, has not yet retaliated to Western escalation, and that this indicates not just Russian weakness but that the West can proceed towards its long-term goal, defined by NATO’s think tank, the RAND corporation, as the disintegration of the Russian Federation and the opening up of its territory and economy to Western neocon entrepreneurs.

An alternative, more sagacious point of view argues that just because somebody has not retaliated against provocation does not mean that they will not in the future. It may also suggest that they choose not to engage in war simply at the convenience of their opponent. In this case, I would argue that Russia does retaliate, but not in the obvious ways that Western analysts recognize as retaliation, and that Russia does not need an overt declaration of war to pursue what has so far been a highly effective war of attrition both against Ukraine and the West generally.

Previous Long-Range Missile Attacks

In the Russia-Ukraine context, Western long-range weapons (but not hypersonic - the West simply does not have them) have already been used in the past, copiously, against targets in Crimea. And without success. Most notably, perhaps, these included an ATACMS missile - or, at least, missile fragments scattered after an ATACMS missile had been intercepted by Russian missile defense or by Russian electronic warfare. This killed a party of beachgoers in Sevastopol in June this year. And there have been comparable attacks against targets either within Novorussiye, or just beyond it.

But these attacks have not figured prominently in the Western conversation recently, given that the focus now is on the firing of missiles “deep” into Russia, and given previous US agreement for Ukraine to use such weapons against sources of Russian fire directed to Ukrainian positions in Kharkiv, following the Russian offensive centered on Vovchansk in May this year.

Anxiety in Washington, where it is widely understood that the Pentagon is not enthusiastic about, and is even hostile to, the use of long-range missiles (a statement by US Secretary for Defense, Lloyd Austin, to this effect was issued before Putin’s statement of September 12) created an expectation that Russian targets for NATO missiles might be limited to certain categories, or that Washington would allow Ukraine to use British Storm Shadows but not US ATACMS. Nonetheless, some kind of positive indication of permission for the use of long-range missiles had been expected during or in the immediate aftermath of a meeting between President Biden and UK Prime Minister Starmer on Friday, September 13, even if there has so far been no such statement. There was not even any indication that the White House would approve the use by Britain of its Storm Shadow missiles, even if the US decided to hold back its ATACMS missiles from use by Ukraine.

From East and West

In the meantime, I had observed that Japan had permitted the stationing in Japan of the US Typhon land-based intermediate range cruise missile system which suggested a further escalation of US preparations with its allies in Asia, South East Asia and Australasia for war with China over either Taiwan (on the pretext that China might threaten to invade Taiwan (highly unlikely, in my view) or over contested ownership over any of dozens of islands in the South China Sea.


White House Stalled or Stalling

On the issue of long-range missiles against Russia, widespread mainstream press commentary has tended to the view that the Biden White House “kicked the can further down the road" by waiting until the visit of Zelenskiy to New York for the UN General Assembly, whose major discussions will run from September 24 through to September 30.

At that time, it is being suggested, Zelenskiy could better explain to Washington what is Ukraine’s overall strategy for victory. Zelenskiy’s current proposal calls for the use of long-range missiles against Russia, more weapons of every kind to Ukraine and the positioning of NATO troops in the rearguard of Ukraine in order to facilitate the release of more Ukrainian troops to the front lines. These demands do not command credibility in a context in which Ukraine is clearly losing the war, its President illegimate, and which has run out of reserves even as Russia plans to increase the size of its own army by 200,000 - to a total of one and a half million, making Russia’s the second largest army in the world after China.


Zelenskiy might introduce some kind of resolution to the Assembly in a bid to secure majority approval for an escalation to long range missiles against Russia. This would not be binding, and it might not even capture a majority of votes. The strength of world opinion, therefore, might become a factor influencing Washington’s final decision. The substantial support, expressed already in the General Assembly for a motion requiring Israel to withdraw from all the occupied Palestinian territories within a year, might counsel Zelenskiy against pouring fuel on the fire of world anger with the reckless evil of US imperialism and its Israeli protege.

This is not to say that it is impossible that a decision in favor of long-range missiles has indeed been taken but simply not disclosed. This seemed unlikely in view of expressions of great disappointment in the British Sunday Times on September 15 that the Starmer government had not been given the green light for the deployment of Storm Shadows, and expressions of angry dismay by five former Defense Ministers and by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson (who has recently proposed that Ukrainian forces could “back fill” for NATO if the US withdrew). These seemed to raise the prospect of a campaign to pressure Starmer to “go it alone.”


Britain to Go It Alone?

There are several reasons why this is unlikely:

(1) First of all, and for many decades now, the British have been Washington’s poodles, allowed only to bark and attack on Washington’s command. (Which is not to rule out the possibility that Washington has given a secret but deniable permission to London).

(2) Secondly, it would be highly inadvisable for Starmer to give the appearance of any such bid in advance of the UN General Assembly.

(3) Thirdly, the threat of use of Storm Shadows is in itself facile. The weapon is an Anglo-French-Italian production, that the French call the “Scalp.” A year ago it was reported that production of the Storm Shadow would be halted. In any case, stocks of these missiles are limited. The same is true, incidentally, of stocks of ATACMS available for use in Ukraine, as US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has explicitly said. If their production is indeed continuing, then their numbers are nowhere near comparable to the volume and speed of Russian production of equivalents and cannot possibly meet Ukrainian consumption. Furthermore, Russia has long ago developed its electronic warfare capability to shoot most of them down.

(4) Even a few hundred of these are not going to change the course of the war. Besides, Russia has already withdrawn many of its most valuable military assets well behind the 300 kilometer range of the Storm Shadow. American JASSM air-to-surface stealth missiles would be far more of a threat, but there are unlikely to be a large inventory of these for some time, if ever. Russia has its own equivalents for almost all Western categories of weapon and more besides, although for the time being Russia has set itself only one direct target - Ukraine.

(5) The Storm Shadow depends on US satellite surveillance and contains US components, of which perhaps the most significant is one that would reportedly overcome Russian electronic hacking of the Storm Shadow’s current reliance on GPS positioning. In other words, in the event that Washington was truly opposed to British or Ukrainian use of Storm Shadows, it could simply bring production lines to a sudden halt.

Despite the forgoing, however, one must concede that the signals are confusing. Plans to raise money for Ukraine in the form of loans based on the interest earned on seized Russian assets in Europe (primarily) will likely encounter stiff legal resistance outside of Europe, are unpopular with potential bondholders who know that Ukraine will never repay the debts, and will forever scare off the Global South from parking their money in Western banks. In their newest manifestation, still to be approved by the Commission and by member governments, the EU will furnish $40 billion in loans guaranteed by the Commission and likely to be repaid by taxpayers in the likely event that Ukraine does not repay them.

European enthusiasm for this wobbly project is in part sustained by the ambitions of the European Commission under neo-empress Ursula von der Leyen to further centralize power in Europe, acquire the power to raise money on its own and to issue its own bonds, and to raise its own army in potential competition with NATO itself.

Soundings of Congress by the Biden administration are advising there is a distinct cooling on Capitol Hill for the idea of any further major aid package for Ukraine of the scale that we saw earlier in the year. There is talk of $6 billion, way down on the $40 billion approved in May.

In short, if Starmer persists with Storm Shadows now, or if he engages in a lobbying campaign on Washington for Britain to be allowed to deploy them, he is swimming against the tide in a fashion that may mark him out for ridicule and render the UK peculiarly vulnerable to Russian retaliation (as in Russian supply of weapons to enemies of Britain around the world).

(7) On the eve of the US November presidential election it is likely that neither the incumbent, Biden, nor his vice-president and possible president-to-be, Kamala Harris, actually wants to rock a boat that might just about be able to float by itself until after the election. Anyone intelligent left in Washington - a diminishing fraternity, perhaps - now understands that a country with $3.5 trillion debt, its economy perhaps long surpassed by China in terms of purchasing power parity, and a foreign policy that commits the US militarily to fighting on at least three fronts - Russia over Ukraine, a regional war on Israel’s behalf against Iran, and a war with China over Taiwan as proxy - is a country whose existential future is in grave doubt.

On the other hand, it is perhaps precisely the scale of the debt that is making Washington so fatally reckless. Without command of the global economy through the dollar, and the widespread manipulation that this status has allowed up until now, the USA and the Western economies could implode.

Pressure to Negotiate

We can debate whether the intent behind lobbying for long-range missiles is to put further pressure on Russia to make it more amenable to negotiation. If so, the endeavor is hopeless because Russia will make no concessions in the direction of anything that the Neocon West wants and certainly nothing short of Ukrainian neutrality and Russian retention of Crimea and Novorussiye.

Because Russia is winning on the battlefields in the Donbass and because it looks increasingly as though Ukraine will be kicked out of Kursk at the cost of very heavy casualties, there is little incentive for Russia to enter into negotiations at this point of time. One should not underestimate the pain and suffering that the Kursk invasion has inflicted on Kursk residents. But such considerations do not yet impact broader geopolitical strategic considerations.

Russia will be paying attention to the attitude of its allies in the BRICS, and this is indeed a factor that may end up being more important than anything else in persuading Russia to re-enter negotiations. As chair of the BRICS in Kazan in October Russia is deeply cognizant of the necessity for hard gains in the drive to de-dollarization of the global economy. And Russia is showing great caution in the handling of bids for membership from countries such as Algeria and Turkey that it perhaps sees as potential spoilers.

Even in the eventuality of negotiation there can be no doubt whatsoever that Russia will insist that the starting point of any such discussion must be “Istanbul Plus.” The more time that elapses between March 2022 (when Ukraine and Russia signed a draft agreement that was then sabotaged by the likes of Victoria Nuland and Boris Johnson on behalf of the Neocon crazies in NATO) and the restart of negotiations, the greater is going to be the “Plus” in “Istanbul Plus.” My own view is not against this but, given that this is really a war between the West and the Global South, then I think all the actual participants need to be around the table, something that I think China obliquely recognizes.

Pressure from India and Brazil on Russia towards what some might describe as “moderation” of Russia’s stance on negotiation is tempered somewhat by China which, under the partnerhsip of Xi Xinping and Wang Li, clearly has a deeper understanding than either India or Brazil as to why Russia has had to fight this war and for how long it has been fighting it - definitely since the Western instigation of a coup in Kiev in 2014, but, more reasonably, since 2008 when Putin first “read the Riot Act” to the West on NATO encroachment on Russian border security.

Both Russia and China now realize that the Neocon West has no “reverse gear,” and that the West, under US tutelage, will never give up its hegemony, even, it sometimes seems, at the expense of launching World War Three and igniting nuclear Armageddon.

A Nuclear Response?

We can debate whether the escalation that the supply of long range missiles to “Ukraine” (i.e. NATO) for attacks on the Russian mainland represents would provoke Russia into a nuclear response. While we have several times heard Russian people of influence say that the West will only ever listen to the reality of a nuclear explosion, I don’t expect Russia to commit to anything so reckless that would usher in World War Three and nuclear annihilation of the species.

Given the miserable quality of Western leadership we might expect the West to resort to nuclear weapons before Russia does. Yet no matter how deep the anger, I think it prudent to assume that nobody at the helm of national governments, at the end of the day, is quite stupid enough to trigger global suicide. It remains the case that there is a very big risk of the triggering of nuclear war by accidental signalling and misinterpretation. This danger has been recklessly expedited by US positioning of nuclear offensive weapons around the borders of Russia as in Poland and Romania and, quite soon possibly, in Germany. The US intended this also in Ukraine had it been allowed to do so. A similar process is unfolding in Asia against China with pressure for the stationing of nuclear weapons in South Korea.

Israel’s plunge this week into mass murder of Lebanese citizens, and the bombing of Southern Lebanon and Beirut greatly increases the likelihood of a regional war against Iran.

Russian weapons will strengthen the backbone of Islamic retaliation against Israel for the Gaza and West Bank genocides, and of responses by Iran, Syria and Iraq to daily Israeli murder and other aggression, even as the US reduces its aircraft carrier presence in the region down to one (with the return home of the Eisenhower and the Roosevelt, perhaps to be redeployed to the Pacific in a game of diminishing imperial returns).

Russian missiles will sustain Houthi crippling of Western international trade (trade through the Red Sea already down 80%) and precipitate the economic collapse of Israel. But Israel’s plunge this week into mass murder of Lebanese citizens, and the bombing of Southern Lebanon and Beirut increases the likelihood of a regional war against Iran. The West can no longer presume the automatic rallying to Western defense of Israel by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which are now part of the BRICS, or that Turkey will persist in its deft balancing between East and West, or that King Abdullah in Jordan can restrain the massive pressure of his people (who include several million Palestinians) in favor of Palestine, which lies right next door. Or that Egypt’s military-friendly, authoritarian, pro-Western regime under Abdel Sisi can do the same.

In a further demonstration of the extent to which the Ukrainian and Middle Eastern fronts are now integrated, Ukraine’s special forces are planning or are already executing a plan to provide drones to Al Nusra, the Al Qaeda affiliate in the Turkish protectorate of Idlib in Syria and to provide advisers who will train militants to use them against Russian bases. These are there legitimately at the request of Damascus and have been critical to Assad’s ability to withstand Muslim Brotherhood hostility to Assad’s multi sectarian system of governance. The decades’ old Muslim Brotherhood extremist Sunni war against Damascus has been exploited by Qatar and the UAE and other authoritarian Arab regimes in collaboration with Western powers anxious to diminish the strength of Russian allies in the region.

The Iranian Factor

The greenlighting of long range missiles from Ukraine is premised in part by what US Secretary of State Tony Blinken claims is Iranian supply of ballistic missiles to Russia. Iran denies this (Russia has not denied the claim explicitly), and also says that in the past it has refused Russian requests for such missiles. There is little doubt in my mind that Russia has found it useful in the past to import Shahed drones from Iran but I am skeptical that Russia is in any sense dependent on Iran for missiles, given what we know of the extent and sophistication of Russian manufactured missiles, Russian manufacturing capacity and expertise.

Perhaps Iran can provide certain categories of missile more cheaply. And perhaps Iranian supply of weapons to Russia has the symbolic advantage of demonstrating to the peoples of both countries the degree of political, military and economic solidarity between these two important members of the BRICS.

Blinken’s unlikely claims about Iran are merely a pretext that justify yet more Western sanctions on that country and continue the West’s decades-old demonization of Iran on one false pretext after another, disguising how this vindictiveness sustains a divided Middle East to US advantage. More worryingly, Western propaganda against Iran may make it easier for the US to succumb to Netanyahu’s provocations which are designed to lure the US into a regional war that Israel cannot possibly fight and win on its own.

In a possible bid to distract Chinese attention from the gathering crisis in the region of the world on which China depends for a substantial proportion of its energy supply, the US is ratcheting up anti-Chinese tensions in East and southeast Asia, pretending that China is about to invade Taiwan, or do something else that the US deems problematic in the South China Sea. Perhaps the US should be more mindful of China’s own ramping up of its nuclear force. Ahead of what almost certainly will be the end of START early next year and the demise of restraints on nuclear weapon production by both the US and Russia.

The most important thing about Iran to weigh into the analysis at this time is that Russia and Iran have now publicly confirmed their commitment to a comprehensive mutual defense which now only has to be signed into law by President Putin.

Conclusion

I have long argued that the current global tension is the direct outcome of the determination by increasingly plutocratic, pseudo-democratic - but in reality, authoritarian - neoliberal Western powers to do whatever they must to sustain their hegemony over the “rules-based” (or “we-make-up-the-rules-as-we-like-without-any-accountability-whatsoever “) order. They are trying to suppress the emergence of a more democratic, pluricentrist world whose order is underwritten by a system of international law and which may eventually be monitored and regulated by a profoundly reformed United Nations, whose current Security Council will be summarily dismissed. A more tightly articulated and formulated BRICS structure will be of paramount importance in facilitating this transition.

Editor's Note: The above is a summation/conclusion we can all rally around. 

Significant Drone Strike on Largest Russian Arms Depot


Lili News 029
  • In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
  • Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
  • Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.


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IMPERIALISM: DECADENT AND DOOMED WITH JOTI BRAR – MACRON, STARMER, HARRIS – FAKE DEMOCRACY / Ep. 22

Please make sure these dispatches reach as many readers as possible. Share with kin, friends and workmates and ask them to do likewise.


Garland Nixon
chats with
JOTI BRAR


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Editor's Note: We apologise for the frustration of many readers who justifiably wanted to watch and hear Joti and Garland discuss the announced topics. It is without a doubt one of Joti's best ever analyses of the global situation, with plenty of historical context to make events fully comprehensible. Problem is, we are under attack. And last night, as soon as we put this post up it was hacked, making it impossible for us to display the video. It took more than 12 hours of tinkering with the code to fix the problem and restore the video to its proper place. The hackers remain anonymous, but we can guess their political predilections. 


IMPERIALISM: DECADENT AND DOOMED WITH JOTI BRAR - MACRON, STARMER, HARRIS - FAKE DEMOCRACY
Welcome to the Post-Democracy Era!
The post-democracy era is here.  The masses got to believe they lived in democracy because they were NOT rebelling! They had been bribed to accept a social peace offered by capital and not push on with their class struggle. Now that, once again, there is growing discontent among the masses, the capitalist claws are coming back. Joti Brar explains eloquently what the current crisis is all about. What we see today is a global struggle in which the capitalist class are trying to reconquer the "decolonised nations" to again use their resources and populations to solve their system's incurable crises. 

PRECIS
After a historically brief postwar (WW2) period when the working class (especially in Europe) could enjoy a more tolerable standard of living thanks to the adoption of social democracy out of fear of the Soviet example— enjoying better wages, their own homes, had unemployment cushions, healthcare, free education, etc.—the inexorable capitalist crisis cycle is forcing the capitalists to roll back the "good times" with which the developed world ruling class had bought the passivity of the masses. This is inherent in capitalism which, due to its internal dynamic, always goes from boom to bust, a problem (overproduction) now magnified with the extension of capitalism to global dimensions under US imperialism and the arrival of the digital age. 

The working class today in practically all capitalist countries is feeling the pain of living under totally the rise of "WOKE imperialism"), and the grotesque lies implicit in the pretend fight for human rights and against anti-semitism, that serve to muzzle free speech, protect Israel from retribution for its multitude of heinous crimes, and facilitate the deletion of democratic norms across the globe.


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  • Help us expand our reach. Defeat appalling hypocrisy. Lies cost countless lives.
  • We must act together to smash the VILE Western disinformation machine.
  • This is the Lying Machine that protects the greatest evil humanity has ever seen.
  • YOU know what we are talking about.


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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS