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Will Bolsonaro Be Spared From The ‘South American Spring’?
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Andrew Korybko
[dropcap]S[/dropcap]everal South American nations have been rocked by the sudden explosion of intense street protests over the past month aimed at removing their internationally recognized governments from power, and while these developments are split between being genuine people-driven protests and externally supported Color Revolutions, the question on everyone's mind is whether they'll eventually spread to Brazil and pose a threat to Bolsonaro's rule.
South America is in the throes of revolutionary fervor, both its genuine people-driven and weaponized Color Revolution forms, and the question on everyone's mind is whether it'll eventually spread to Brazil and pose a threat to Bolsonaro. Venezuela has been successful in withstanding the US' incessant Hybrid War for the past few years already, but Washington's weaponization of mass protests for regime change purposes inadvertently led to the proliferation of this political technology all throughout the continent and its use by forces that are inimical to the US' interests. The first example of this in practice occurred on the last day of September when protesters streamed into the streets to support Peruvian President Vizcarra against the pro-US congress' temporary putsch against him, which quickly led to his reinstatement in office since the military and police had already declared that they still recognized him as their country's legitimate leader.
This event was overshadowed by the much more violent protests that broke out in neighboring Ecuador just a few days thereafter following President Moreno's cancellation of fuel subsidies as part of the deal that he had earlier reached with the IMF. The population was so incensed that the government had to relocate to the port city of Guayaquil while it attempted to negotiate with the protesters. The eventual outcome was that the state agreed to rescind its controversial order, though some observers believe that another round of unrest is guaranteed since the structural issues underlying the recent crisis haven't been addressed whatsoever. They are, however, being tackled head-on in nearby Chile where the citizens of that country are still protesting several weeks after they first decided to take direct action in response to the government's metro fare increase, which was the proverbial straw that broke the camel's back and provoked the latest unrest.
What's so special about Chile is that it's one of the most developed countries in the world, at least according to macroeconomic standards, though it's also the one with the greatest socio-economic disparity among its OECD peers. The protesters want to rectify the structural wrongs that have been imposed upon the population through the continuation of Pinochet's Old Cold War-era constitution into the present day, hence why their movement is still going strong and has since evolved to the point of outright demanding a new people's-drafted constitution that removes the inequalities that are institutionalized into the current one. In the midst of this ongoing revolution, neighboring Argentina removed its hyper-neoliberal incumbent in the latest elections and returned former President Cristina Fernandez Kirchner to power as their Vice President following her running mate's successful campaign at the end of October.
Thus far, all of the developments that were described in this analysis (except for Venezuela's) have been detrimental to the US' grand strategic interests because they represent a rebirth of the "Pink Tide" sentiment from the 2000s that's pushing back against Trump's "Fortress America" vision of restoring his country's historic hegemony over the continent. Peru's inclusion in this categorization is somewhat debatable since the country is still an American ally, though it's also a very close trading partner of China's too and is therefore always susceptible to being victimized by US-backed destabilization plots in order to pressure its government to gradually reduce its ties with the People's Republic. In any case, there's no doubt that the US is against the latest turn of events in Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina, all three of which it had taken for granted as its regional proxies, which explains why it worked so hard to subvert the democratic process in Bolivia recently.
That lithium-rich landlocked socialist state just fell victim to a Hybrid War regime change operation that risks embroiling the country in a more intense civil war than it already unofficially is in. Considering the possibility that any worsening of the crisis there could lead to similarly disastrous socio-economic consequences as the years-long one in Venezuela, it can't be ruled out that a significant number of refugees might flee into neighboring Brazil, which could destabilize that already sharply divided country even more. This takes on a greater importance than ever before following former President Lula's surprise temporary release from custody over the weekend and the challenge that his reinvigorated supporters might soon pose to Bolsonaro if they organize en masse and make their peaceful demands for his resignation felt by all members of society through forthcoming nationwide strikes. Now is the perfect time too since the ruling party is crumbling after internal divisions that just culminated in Bolsonaro reportedly deciding to quit and form his own party next year.
It shouldn't be forgotten that Bolsonaro's resounding electoral victory last year was made possible only because the US' Hybrid War on Brazil removed former President Rousseff from office and then saw the jailing of her predecessor Lula after it became obvious that he'd easily return to power if a free and fair vote was held. Bolsonaro's presidency is therefore the direct result of extensive US meddling in Brazilian institutions and the country's democracy in general, but the regional spirit of the times and Lula's surprise temporary release might serve to inspire the millions of malcontent citizens there to peacefully organize themselves in replicating the regime change movements that they're observing in action all across South America right now. The key, however, is not to resort to violence and give Bolsonaro an excuse to impose a "Brazilian Patriot Act" like geopolitical analyst Pepe Escobar has warned. The US let the genie out of the bottle through its long-running Hybrid War on Venezuela, and although it's solidifying its newly established control over Bolivia right now, it lost control of the protest dynamics in Peru, Ecuador, and Chile, and its man in Argentina just lost reelection.
Assessing the larger pattern at play -- be it pro-American Color Revolutions or genuine people-driven movements -- it's obvious that a "South American Spring" has entered into effect, not only climatologically given that most of the continent is in the Southern Hemisphere and therefore literally in the middle of springtime right now, but also politically in the sense that many governments are coming under bottom-up pressure (whether externally exploited from abroad or genuinely grassroots in their form) and one of them has already fallen by democratic means at the ballot box while the other was just overthrown by a military coup. It's difficult to imagine why Brazil would be immune to this trend considering that it's already so sharply divided and even the slightest spark might set into motion very similar events as elsewhere in the region, which is why Bolsonaro must be anxiously sweating right now praying that he won't become the most prominent example of the US' Hybrid War blowback in the hemisphere.
[dropcap]C[/dropcap]hile has been held up for decades as South America’s clearest example of the stability possible when neoliberal policies are adopted and implemented as if they were religious tenets. The country is now in a situation of open rebellion. This revolt has exploded in Chile exactly as a result of the consequences of those same policies.
ABOVE: This is not about 30 pesos, it’s about 30 years!
President Sebastián Piñera and the Chilean government’s brutally violent repression has led to at least 18 deaths. More than 5000 people have been detained or arrested. There are literally hundreds of videos of frighteningly vicious military and police actions against the Chilean population circulating on social media. The increasingly desperate tactics of curfews, a state of emergency, repression, public denigration of demonstrators as criminals and unashamed violence are bringing more people into the streets every day. Each intensification of repression causes the streets to fill with even more energy the next day. And that energy is already incredible.
Yesterday, more than 20 ports were shut down by dock workers. Today and tomorrow trade unions across the country have called for and are actively organizing a general strike.
How could all of this possibly be a response to a 30 peso (about 4 cents USD) public transport fare hike? Of course it is not. But transport is expensive. A minimum wage worker in Santiago pays as much as 15 per cent of their wage on public transportation if they take a bus or metro twice a day. In a country where more than half the population earns less than the official minimum wage. But of course, any rebellion of this depth and scale requires much more fuel.
Class War from Above
Left:The prolog to today's struggles, Pinochet imposes neoliberalism in 1973. Burning of radical books and icons.
Chile has been the most loyal adherent to the so called ‘class war from above’ neoliberal policies of the Chicago School since the military dictatorship of the 1970s. There are a variety of real and substantive legacies of this era that provide direct fuel to the current rebellion. Thatcher and Reagan’s ‘privatization miracles’ were modelled on the Chilean experiences that were initiated in the Pinochet era.
Almost everything that was public was privatized fully or partially. Similar to the US and many Latin American countries, an actively undermined, weak and fragmented public health system exists in Chile. But those that can afford it pay a significant proportion of their incomes for private health plans in order not be one of the thousands of Chileans that die every year waiting for medical treatment. Similar to Canada, students have to pay high tuition fees to study at universities and they graduate with debt that regularly takes more than a decade for graduates and their families to pay back.
The pension system is completely privatized. In poorly concealed political efforts to replicate the model, economists present Chile’s individually capitalized model of ‘Pension Fund Administrators’ (AFP) as a great success across the region. This system was implemented during the dictatorship. It is managed by private companies that ‘lend’ workers’ pension fund money to themselves! These companies can capture any gains for themselves and pass losses on to workers. The system leaves retired workers in misery. Trade unions and other groups have been running campaigns to change this system for years now. Piñera has proposals currently moving through the senate the give even more resources to these companies.
ABOVE: Demo in Santiago's metro.
Residents of Santiago pay some of the highest water bills on the continent and face chronic shortages. The water system was completely privatized under Pinochet. Exactly the model consistently promoted by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Today three quarters of Chileans support the return of the public ownership of water.
The national constitution and labour rights regime in Chile were also created during the military dictatorship. Many unions are weak and fragmented by law. With low levels of negotiating power, hours of work are long, holidays are few and exploitation is intense. The only country with higher levels of inequality in the region is Brazil (Chile competes with Colombia for the title of second place). Exactly the country where the current president is trying to replicate Chilean policies.
Even though the Mapuche (the main group of indigenous peoples in Chile) have never formally ceded to the colonial settler state, the systematic violence directed at these peoples has been unrelenting for centuries and its effects have been exactly those planned. State and private violence against indigenous peoples continues today in a context similar to that of Canada where many indigenous peoples are understood to be inconvenient impediments to very rich ‘natural resources’.
Class War from Below
So the immediate responses of some smart, young and strategic organizers to the public transit fare hike was to organize a ‘jump the turnstiles’ campaign. The campaign took off immediately. The government reaction was to militarize the metro stations and violently repress the movement. When this didn’t work, the police shut down the stations during peak hours. Workers that were returning home, and were barred from the stations, joined the growing demonstrations.
Piñera refuses to recognise legitimate causes of upheavals.
"We're at war with a powerful enemy..that does not respect anything or anybody."
The Santiago police completely lost control at the end of last week when 16 subway stations and the Italian energy multinational Enel’s headquarters were set on fire. Several other public and private buildings and many vehicles have been set on fire including Walmart. The army was mobilized, and a state of emergency declared. A curfew was called. This was understood as particularly outrageous because the legacy of the military dictatorship has never been seriously dealt with in Chile.
While Piñera was giving the orders to intensify repression in the streets, Chile’s National Institute of Human Rights reported a series of abuses and serious violations by the security forces throughout the country. “There are reports of excessive use of force at the time of detention, unfair harassment of children, mistreatment, blows to the face and legs, torture, stripping of women and men, sexual violations, among other violations.” The president’s response was to openly declare that Chile “is at war,” once again inflaming the population. Almost immediately, a top general stated publicly that he was not at war with anyone.
The curfews have been openly defied as thousands of decentralized ‘pot-banging’ demonstrations were happening in working and middle-class neighbourhoods in all of the larger cities of the country. Manifestations of this anger are now being expressed in every region of the country, in both urban capitals and rural areas. Traditional political parties and the old socialist left in Chile have been completely unable to give direction to or provide any kind of leadership to the movements.
Piñera has made a series of increasing concessionary offers since Monday. First announcing the revocation of the fare increase, then, after finally accepting that this was not about transit fares, he has moved quickly to offer a 20 per cent increase to pensions and to include some expensive medical treatments in the public system. All to absolutely no effect. The demonstrations and now general strikes continue to grow in force.
The only response of the state has been repression with almost 10,000 troops now in the streets of cities from the north to the south of the country. The National Institute of Human Rights is now investigating a temporary torture center that the military built in a closed metro station. It seems as if the dictatorship in Chile never really went away. But it is also true that the resistance never disappeared either. The popular rage is consolidating into that courage and confidence that leads to the affirmation that collective action works, even in the most repressive of political moments. The myth that well-implemented neoliberal policies will deliver stability and economic growth is dead. ¡Adelante! •
On the evening of Tuesday, Oct 01st, Ecuador’s president Lenin Moreno announced a whole bunch of new legislation, delivering to the people of Ecuador:
– Austerity;
– Deep cuts on social rights;
– Deep cuts on taxes for the wealthiest;
– Dismissal of public workers;
– Dismantling of labor relations;
– Dismantling of social security; and so on.
On Wednesday, Oct 02nd, people gathered on the cities, and began to march through the capital city, Quito. On the same day, the police and the armed forces started to violently repress the demonstrators.
On Thursday, Oct 03rd, the government decreed the State of Exception, for 60 days.
From then on, the situation has just worsened.
This video is from yesterday, on Monday, Oct. 7th:
And these videos are from today, on Tuesday, Oct. 8th:
Then, there is also this shocking declaration, from the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE):
From which there follows a translation into English (thanks to Peter Lenny):
*******
CONAIE declares a state of exception in indigenous lands
1) In view of the public authorities’ brutality and their lack of the awareness necessary to understand the popular nature of the demands of the National Stoppage against the Package, which adversely affects Ecuadorean society as a whole and worsens the conditions of life and existence of the country’s most vulnerable popular sectors;
2) In view of the government’s insistence on advancing on our territories to exploit mining, oil and goods of nature, destroying living environments and backing the corporations’ presence with military forces;
3) Exercising our right to self-determination and our authority to administer justice in the jurisdiction of the peoples and nationalities, as recognized in the United Nations Declaration on [the Rights of] Indigenous Peoples, ILO Convention 169 on Indigenous and Tribal Peoples, and the Constitution of the Republic of Ecuador;
The CONAIE hereby declares a state of exception in all indigenous territories.
Military and police who approach indigenous territories will be detained and subject to indigenous justice.
*******
Ecuador has been brought to the brink of civil war.
ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS
Read it in your language • Lealo en su idioma • Lisez-le dans votre langue • Lies es in Deiner Sprache • Прочитайте это на вашем языке • 用你的语言阅读
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And before you leave
THE DEEP STATE IS CLOSING IN
The big social media —Google, Facebook, Instagram, Twitter—are trying to silence us.
La desvergüenza de Piñera y de sus adláteres
HELP ENLIGHTEN YOUR FELLOWS. BE SURE TO PASS THIS ON. SURVIVAL DEPENDS ON IT.
DISPATCH FROM CHILE / FACILITATED BY CARLOS VILLALOBOS /
En materia de gobiernos se volvieron a poner de moda los chupacalcetas, los siervos, los lacayos, los yanaconas. Moda perfectamente ilustrada por Juan Pablo Cárdenas en esta nota políticamente muy correcta...
La desvergüenza de Piñera y de sus adláteres Juan Pablo Cárdenas S. | Sábado 26 de enero 2019
Piñera con sus acómplices
[dropcap]U[/dropcap]no de los mayores fiascos de nuestra política exterior se consumo durante el gobierno de Ricardo Lagos, cuando éste reconoció apresuradamente como presidente de Venezuela a un golpista que no alcanzó a consumar del todo su rebelión en contra del comandante Hugo Chávez. Pero como el ser humano suele tropezarse varias veces con las mismas piedras, ahora Sebastián Piñera ha incurrido en el mismo despropósito al reconocer como mandatario de este país a un aventurero de apellido Guaidó, al mismo tiempo que declarar al gobierno de Nicolás Maduro como ilegítimo.
Da la impresión que ambas y fatales precipitaciones de parte de La Moneda se explican únicamente en la presión que la Casa Blanca le ejerce a aquellos países en el propósito de desestabilizar la Revolución Chavista y deponer a sus legítimos líderes. Ya se sabe que en política exterior la afinidad entre la derecha y la llamada centroizquierda chilena es prácticamente plena, igual de servil a Washington y, lo peor de todo, extremadamente cínica. Constituye un abuso presidencial arrogarse en nuestro país la representación plena de la nación, toda vez que es público y notorio que en todos los asuntos externos, y hasta en los diferendos de Chile con sus vecinos, importantes sectores de la población han repudiado las posiciones fratricidas de nuestra Cancillería, su intento hegemónico regional y su renuncia a consolidar lazos de hermandad continental con nuestros vecinos. Pero en Cuba, Bolivia, la misma Venezuela y otras naciones como, ahora, México, se sabe de la simpatía que despiertan en Chile sus respectivos procesos políticos y se lamenta el abuso de nuestros gobiernos al asumir y hacerse parte de los intereses y maniobras acorde a los intereses del país imperial. Jamás de le ha consultado a la población nacional que opina sobre nuestras relaciones con el mundo y muy especialmente con América Latina y, sin embargo, los moradores de la Moneda y del Poder Legislativo cada vez disponen de mayores presupuestos para las Fuerzas Armadas y nuestra escandalosa carrera armamentista.
Es, asimismo, una desvergüenza que Piñera y otros jefes de estado tomen posiciones frente a Venezuela con el inmenso tejado de vidrio que tienen, cuando los mismos que ahora fustigan a Maduro le dieron acompañamiento a la dictadura De Pinochet y, en su momento, hasta concurrieron a Londres a reclamar su libertad e impunidad, cuando el mayor Tribunal de Justicia del mundo lo retuvo en Europa y buscó juzgarlo por sus horrendos crímenes. Liberación que, a la postre, lo llevara a morir en completa impunidad en su casa.
Es una desfachatez, por lo mismo, que el gobernante chileno, su ex comunista Canciller (hoy reconocido como un traidor) sus ministros, partidos y parlamentarios quieran aparecer ahora como los paladines de la democracia en Venezuela. Coludiéndose para ello con el presidente Bolsonaro, otrora miembro de la tiranía militar brasilera, o con el presidente de Colombia, país que tiene el demérito de ser el más violento de América del Sur, en el que el ejercicio ciudadano es extremadamente precario y donde la guerra civil que se creía superada vuelve a dar muestras de su ferocidad.
Pero también es una completa vergüenza que la Democracia Cristiana chilena y varios de los actores políticos presuntamente de izquierda asuman las mismas posiciones del oficialismo o soslayen un pronunciamiento respecto de lo que sucede en Venezuela, toda vez que la oposición a Maduro en realidad no ha logrado ganar más adeptos, ni provocado algún proceso de concertación para ofrecer una alternativa viable. Cuando además de sabe de la adhesión de la Fuerzas Armadas a Maduro y de aquella enorme organización y movilización social en favor de su gobierno y la defensa de los avances experimentados desde que los corruptos partidos hegemónicos de ese país cayeron en total desprestigio y simplemente desaparecieron.
El golpismo de la derecha venezolana lo que sí ha logrado concitar es el apoyo de los gobiernos adictos a la Casa Blanca, de la OEA y de los grandes medios de comunicación que en el mundo y en Chile se descubren tan afines en su orientación editorial y con tan poca capacidad de mostrar los acontecimientos de Venezuela con un mínimo de independencia y dignidad. No se trata, ciertamente, de apoyar o defender a Maduro, sino de mirar con alguna independencia y ecuanimidad lo que sucede en Venezuela o al menos ofrecer más espacio a la diversidad informativa, de la que tanto Chile carece y pone en entredicho su pretendida democracia.
En este sentido, es bochornoso que en nuestro Parlamento, en los partidos autoproclamados progresistas no surjan más voces que, al menos, le nieguen a Piñera y sus adláteres autoridad moral para intervenir en los asuntos internos de un país hermano, pese que en la defensa encendida, criminal y prolongada de Pinochet tanto reclamaron contra la injerencia del mundo libre y democrático en nuestros asuntos internos. Echamos de menos que quienes desnuden el doble estándar de nuestro gobierno, cuando nada dice ante la forma en que algunos regímenes de la Tierra violan flagrantemente los Derechos Humanos, cuando de se trata de buenos o potenciales socios económicos. Que también callan ante las agresiones cotidianas del presidente Trump, obsesionado por construir un muro contra los derechos migratorios y se empeña en hacer la guerra y proclamar la superioridad estadounidense, como antes la hizo Hitler en relación a los alemanes. O tantos otros tiranos que descollan en la historia universal. Cuando para colmo está presidiendo un gobierno corrupto que hasta fastidia, ya, a su propio Partido Republicano.
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