Moon of Alabama pushes back against those claiming Covid-19 lockdowns are unjustified

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DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

Moon of Alabama's editor has taken issue with two articles (and presumably any others of the same ilk) recently published by progressive sources, one by Mike Whitney, the other, Off-Guardian.  We agree with Moon of Alabama's position. 

By Moon of Alabama editor:

On two Coronavirus pieces on other websites:

The piece debunks itself when it quotes a Swedish epidemiologist who says:

“The truth is that we have a policy similar to that of other countries,” says Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s state epidemiologist, “Like everyone, we are trying to slow down the rate of infection … The differences derive from a different tradition and from a different culture that prevail in Sweden. We prefer voluntary measures, and there is a high level of trust here between the population and the authorities, so we are able to avoid coercive restrictions”

Sweden can do without orders of social distancing because its people will socially distance voluntarily when asked. That works because "there is a high level of trust here between the population and the authorities". That does not hold for the community of Somali people and other immigrants in Sweden more of whom are dying than in any other group.

Now project such a voluntary attempt onto the U.S. public where there is little, if any, trust between the population and the authorities. It simply would not work and one would soon have a runaway epidemic with all its bad consequences. Whitney's conclusion that we should all do like Sweden is thus not justified.

---

The [above] piece was posted on April 17. One of the 'experts' it quotes is Dr. John Oxford, "an English virologist and Professor at Queen Mary, University of London." Here is the quote as posted on Off-Guardian:

Personally, I view this Covid outbreak as akin to a bad winter influenza epidemic. In this case we have had 8000 deaths this last year in the ‘at risk’ groups viz over 65% people with heart disease etc. I do not feel this current Covid will exceed this number. We are suffering from a media epidemic!

– “A VIEW FROM THE HVIVO / OPEN ORPHAN #ORPH LABORATORY”, blog post on Novus Communications website, March 31st 2020

Two remarks:

a. On April 17, when Off-Guardian posted the piece, the United Kingdom already had 14.607 deaths from Covid-19. Those were 6.600 more than the total number Dr. John Oxford predicted. If the real numbers, which are still increasing, are already 80+% higher than the expert's guesstimate should one really use that expert to claim that the 'coronavirus panic' is unjustified?

b. Dr. Oxford made his claim in a "blog post on Novus Communications website". Novus Comes is a public relations agency which provides "financial social media & digital communications for small caps". The company is paid by its clients to talk up certain sectors of the stock market. Should one really use paid PR posts on a PR company's website to judge if some 'panic' about an epidemic is justified?

As for the other 'experts' Off-Guardian quoted. Yes, there are some doctors who do have a different opinion than most of their colleagues. But that does not make them right.

 

An astroturfing campaign was launched in the U.S. to end the lockdowns. It is paid for by rightwing big money:

Somebody did some extremely basic WHOIS searching and found that the person who set up all the "reopen $STATENAME" protest web sites is in fact one guy in Jacksonville. -> reddit thread

and:

[Thread] 1/ Much talk this morning about numerous Facebook groups cropping up with "insert state name" + "against excessive quarantine". Some are suggesting that there is mass astroturfing campaign occurring to pressure state governors to reopen after Donald Trump's tirade
...

---

Covid-19 is a really, really nasty disease:

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We need to learn from this:

Use as open thread ...

Posted by b on April 19, 2020 at 14:26 UTC Permalink

Addendum

Commentary on Trump's Tweets (excerpts)
Mary McCord, The Washington Post (Reposted on The Hour, Norwalk, Conn.)

 Published Friday, April 17, 2020

President Donald Trump incited insurrection Friday against the duly elected governors of the states of Michigan, Minnesota and Virginia. Just a day after issuing guidance for reopening America that clearly deferred decision-making to state officials - as it must under our constitutional order - the president undercut his own guidance by calling for criminal acts against the governors for not opening fast enough.

Trump tweeted, "LIBERATE MINNESOTA!" followed immediately by "LIBERATE MICHIGAN!" and then "LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment. It is under siege!" This follows Wednesday's demonstration in Michigan, in which armed protesters surrounded the state capitol building in Lansing chanting "Lock her up!" in reference to Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and "We will not comply," in reference to her extension of the state's coronavirus-related stay-at-home order. Much smaller and less-armed groups had on Thursday protested on the state capitol grounds in Richmond, Va., and outside the governor's mansion in St. Paul, Minn.

"Liberate" - particularly when it's declared by the chief executive of our republic - isn't some sort of cheeky throwaway. Its definition is "to set at liberty," specifically "to free (something, such as a country) from domination by a foreign power." We historically associate it with the armed defeat of hostile forces during war, such as the liberation of Western Europe from Nazi Germany's control during World War II. Just over a year ago, Trump himself announced that "the United States has liberated all ISIS-controlled territory in Syria and Iraq."

In that context, it's not at all unreasonable to consider Trump's tweets about "liberation" as at least tacit encouragement to citizens to take up arms against duly elected state officials of the party opposite his own, in response to sometimes unpopular but legally issued stay-at-home orders. This is especially so given the president's reference to the Second Amendment being "under siege" in Virginia, where Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam just signed into law a number of gun-safety bills passed during the most recent session of the state general assembly - bills that prompted protests by Second Amendment absolutists at the state capitol in January, leading Northam to declare a state of emergency and temporarily ban firearms from the capitol grounds due to the threat of violence.
<.>

Regardless of whether the tweets are criminal on their own, more importantly, they are irresponsible and dangerous. Private armed militias recently expressed eagerness to support the president's veiled call to arms when he shared a comment on Twitter suggesting that if he were impeached and removed from office, it could lead to civil war:

Just a day before, the Oath Keepers Twitter account tweeted, in an apparent reference to the president, that "All he has to do is call us up. We WILL answer the call." Months before, vigilante groups responded to Trump's frequent rhetoric about an "invasion" on America's southern border by deploying to the border and illegally detaining migrants while heavily armed, dressed in military fatigues and calling themselves the "United Constitutional Patriots."

Trump has a bully pulpit unlike an ordinary citizen. His Twitter account boasts over 77 million followers, but many more see his tweets when they're retweeted by others, posted on other social media and covered by media outlets. He is prolific, having tweeted more than 50,000 times. And he is influential: his three "Liberation" tweets have been retweeted and "liked" hundreds of thousands of times. We are not talking about a typical person when we consider the impact of his statements.

Read the whole article here.

Comments Sampler

Disappointed in Mike Whitney's assessment of Sweden's pandemic policy which may prove to be a disaster down the road. We don't know the true character of this virus and we are only starting to test to discover who has it, who has had it, and who isn't currently infected. We don't know if those recovered have substantial immunity. We don't know how many varieties of this bug are out there. The global community of experts seems dazed and confused. Public policy should err on the side of caution. We do know this, however, that sociopathic national leaders like Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump should be removed from their pulpits and quarantined to stop the spread of their toxic verbiage.

Posted by: jadan | Apr 19 2020 15:05 utc | 1

 

 

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About the author(s)

"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor.  This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community.  Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com. 

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The Best Best Advice Video On How Not To Get Coronavirus From a Top Doctor

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David Price

NOTE:  In this medical news section we try to give our readers information about interesting and promising developments on the fight against this coronavirus (later we will extend this platform to all major medical conditions), but readers must keep in mind that we are often forced to publish materials originating within the US-style capitalist healthcare industry in which profits and not wellness is the main driver for action or inaction. 
By Mark Simone
Apr 5, 2020

 

The full video by Dr. David Price of Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York City has gone viral. It's about an hour long. Here's a much easier to watch, edited, short version with just the most important part - the best advice on how not to get the virus:


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My Take On Covid-19 “Conspiracy Theories”

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Paul Craig Roberts
OpEds

Editor's Note—PCR, for most of his life a libertarian  and academic establishmentarian (he served under Reagan in that criminal's cabinet as a promoter of supply-side economics) has become in the last two decades one of the most lucid and acerbic critics of the global corporate status quo, and many of his scathing, no-holds-barred essays on US foreign policy have been deservedly reposted on many sites (including The Greanville Post). That said, although, like his fellow rightwing economist David Stockman, who served Reagan as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, he has since repudiated much of his hardcore advocacy for capitalism, he still seems not ready to come out and endorse socialism as the natural alternative and successor to this global malignancy.—PG

April 2, 2020 |
My Take On Covid-19 “Conspiracy Theories”

Paul Craig Roberts

[dropcap]A[/dropcap] number of readers have been asking me for my take on the various “conspiracy theories”?  For example, is the virus a bioweapon?  Did the US release it on China or China on the US?  As Bill Gates and the US military ( http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/55003.htm ) knew in advance or predicted the pandemic, why weren’t preparatory steps taken?  Why are we caught with no plan, no protective gear, shortage of ventilators and no treatment? ( https://stephenlendman.org/2020/04/us-knew-of-novel-coronavirus-threat-failed-to-prepare/ )  Is the virus a plot by the global elite to reduce the population, especially older people on Social Security and Medicare, in order to free more public money for subsidies to the One Percent?  Is it a plot to install tyranny?

Some of the “conspiracy theories” lack plausible motive.  Others lack evidence. Others have circumstantial evidence—for example, a meeting of the global elite conducted a simulation of a pandemic a few weeks prior to the outbreak.  Why?  And some of the circumstantial evidence looks more real than circumstantial.  For example, this: https://groups.google.com/forum/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=footer#!msg/newsfromunderground/24dOim8rSvc/8zEtMrmcCwAJ 

What is the point of blocking information about a successful treatment of Covid-19 other than to keep the profit opportunity open for a vaccine?  The more people who die from the virus, the more acceptance a vaccine will have regardless of its effectiveness or danger.

I appreciate readers confidence that I know so much.  But I don’t.  I cannot answer the questions.  However, I do appreciate the questions, because they provide an opportunity for me to draw an important lesson. Let’s begin by calling the conspiracy theories alternative explanations. What all of the alternative explanations have in common is distrust of the authorities and the official explanations.  This is the fault of the authorities and the media, not of those with alternative explanations. If the public had confidence in the authorities, there would be no scope for alternative explanations. By not being forthcoming up front, by politicizing the virus against Trump and against China, by taking so long to acknowledge the seriousness of the threat while doing nothing to prepare, the authorities have harmed public trust in them.  

Trust in public authorities and the media was already thin.  The lies about Washington’s wars—“weapons of mass destruction,” “Iranian nukes,” “Assad’s use of chemical weapons”—and the Russiagate hoax, have undermined the credibility of Washington and the US print and TV media.  

Now with the virus, denial and unpreparedness and the impact on the economy and people’s economic condition have further eroded confidence in authorities, thereby producing a receptive audience for alternative explanations.  But those with alternative explanations are themselves undermining confidence in public authorities.  Yes, questions are in order.  There is no doubt that we are confronted with large scale failure by an unprepared government and health care system. Capitalism with an inadequate public sector has exposed us to both health and economic failure.  These are all legitimate points to be made.  However, the purpose of some alternative explanations seems to be to attract attention to a website or to a person with a podcast, and others produce division that prevents a coming together and leadership, however belated, from public authorities by discrediting such leadership in advance.

Thus, the alternative explanations can be just as debilitating and irresponsible as the authorities prevarications.

If the virus is used for self-interested purposes by the many interests affected, no common interest can form that would provide a basis for leadership by authorities.  To survive as a society, we need realism, decisive action, and commitment to everyone by public authorities without favoritism.  From doubters, we need questions in place of the denunciations and explanations that imply our doom.  If we believe we are doomed in advance, it will be hard to muster the will to prevail over the health and economic challenge.

The challenge from the virus might be greater than we know, for example: https://stephenlendman.org/2020/04/new-covid-19-outbreaks-in-china/ .  If we are discouraged in advance, the catastrophe will be greater.

As we experience the shortcomings, and perhaps the failure, of our health and economic system, we should be prepared to demand and force through substantial reforms, reforms even more far-reaching than those brought by the Great Depression.  The neoliberal globalism of recent decades has left the United States and Europe extremely vulnerable.  We must not contribute to making this vulnerability worse, and we must replace neoliberal globalism with a less dysfunctional system at the earliest opportunity. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Paul Craig Roberts has had careers in scholarship and academia, public service, and journalism. From 1971 until 2004, he was associated with the Hoover Institution, Stanford University as National Fellow, Research Fellow and Senior Research Fellow. A former editor and columnist for The Wall Street Journal and columnist for Business Week and the Scripps Howard News Service, he is a nationally syndicated columnist for Creators Syndicate in Los Angeles. In 1992, he received the Warren Brookes Award for Excellence in Journalism. In 1993, the Forbes Media Guide ranked him as one of the top seven journalists in the United States.He was Distinguished Fellow at the Cato Institute from 1993 to 1996. From 1982 through 1993, he held the William E. Simon Chair in Political Economy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. During 1981-82, he served as assistant secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. President Reagan and Treasury Secretary Regan credited him with a major role in the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981, and he was awarded the Treasury Department’s Meritorious Service Award for "his outstanding contributions to the formulation of United States economic policy."


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Doctors Rate Hydroxychloroquine Most Effective Therapy for Coronavirus Infection

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A dispatch from PrecisionVaccinations.com

The FDA has issued emergency authorization of Hydroxychloroquine treatment for COVID-19 patients in the USA

 
 

April 4, 2020 –
[dropcap]A[/dropcap] global survey found that anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine was the most highly-rated treatment against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

This new survey completed by Sermo on March 27, 2020, reported 6,227 physicians in 30 countries found that 37 percent of those treating COVID-19 patients rated hydroxychloroquine as the “most effective therapy” from a list of 15 options.

Also, the survey of 6,227 doctors found that the most commonly prescribed treatments are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine.

Previously, a survey distributed on March 30, 2020, about 83 percent of independent pharmacists in the USA said ‘they should be able to dispense a limited supply of malaria drugs, as long the patient has tested positive ..... and is under a doctor's care.’

And, on March 23rd, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) issued emergency use authorization of Hydroxychloroquine for treatment of coronavirus patients. 

Previously available for “off-label” use, the FDA now gives hospitals and doctors emergency permission to use the anti-malarial drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine to treat coronavirus patients.

Below is a summary of the findings from the Sermo survey:

  • Hydroxychloroquine usage amongst COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the US, 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan.
  • Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters).
  • 75% in Spain, 53% in Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the US and 13% in the UK.
  • The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:  (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for 5 days. (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for 4 days.
  • Outside the US, Hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the US it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients.
  • Globally, 19% of physicians prescribed or have seen Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically used for high-risk patients, and 8% for low-risk patients.
As of April 4, 2020, data sources indicate there have been over 1.1 million cases of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus reported by countries around the world.

Clinical data evaluating hydroxychloroquine is limited, and its efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 is unknown. Nevertheless, given the lack of clearly effective interventions and the in vitro antiviral activity against COVID-19 some clinicians are using it.  There are cardiac side effects among its side effects.

Moreover, there have been about 59,203 fatalities confirmed related to the COVID-19 disease during 2020.

SARS-CoV-2 outbreak news is published by Coronavirus Today.

Precision Vaccinations publishes COVID-19 therapeutic development news.

 

 


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The Science Says #MaskUp – A Look At Two New Virus Studies

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DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]here are a few new studies about the novel coronavirus epidemic that are of interest for everyone.

From Science comes a study with new epidemic data that evaluates a smartphone based system that could alarm those who have come near a person which later developed Covid-19 symptoms. Such a system is used in South Korea.

Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing

The new epidemic data in the study is of interest.

It says that the basic reproduction number R0 or R naught for the novel coronavirus is 2.0. Under normal circumstance a new carrier of the virus is likely to infect two other people. This is a higher value than for the seasonal flu but a bit lower than previously thought.

But what the makes the novel coronavirus really different is that it starts to spread before the spreading person has developed symptoms.

The virus starts to replicate in significant numbers (billions per mililiter) on day 2 after the infection. The virus first replicates in the upper throat and the infected person starts to spread it to others simply by breathing, talking or coughing. Only on day 5 the infected person starts to develop first symptoms. The virus migrates into the lower lung and replicates there. The virus load in the upper throat will then start to decline. The immune system intervenes and defeats the virus but also causes additional lung damage which can kill people who have already other preexisting conditions. (Interestingly smokers seem not to develop cytokine storms during a Covid infection and are thereby less prone to end up in the ICU.) On day 10 only few viruses will be found in the upper throat and the person will generally no longer be infectious.

The typical hospitalization point in China was only on day 9 to 12 after the onset of symptoms. At that point a test by swabs is nearly useless as the infected person will normally no longer have significant numbers of the virus in the upper throat. Reports of "defective tests from China" were likely caused by a lack of knowledge about this phenomenon. The diagnose in these later cases should be done by a CT scan which will show the lung damage.

We do know since late January that people can transmit the virus even when they have not yet developed symptoms. An open question was how many of new infections happen during this phase.

The new Science study investigated how many infections were created by each of four infection phases or types:

  • pre-symptomatic - new infections come from an infected person who has not yet developed symptoms but will do so later
  • symptomatic - new infections come from an infected person who has already developed symptoms
  • environmental - new infections comes from some environmental contact with the virus
  • asymptomatic - new infections come from a person that will never develop any symptoms.

The study says that R0 for pre-symptomatic infections is 0.9 or 46% of all new infections. Infections from a symptomatic persons happen with an R0 of 0.8 which is equal to 40% of all new infections. Environmental infections have an R0 of 0.2 or 10% of all new infections. Infections from asymptomatic cases have an R0 of 0.1 or 4% of all new infections.

More new infections are created during the three pre-symptomatic days the virus carrier runs around then during the symptomatic one.

Washing one's hands helps but environmental infections happen only in 10% of all new infections. The pre-symptomatic carriers are, without knowing it, the biggest spreader of the disease. Millions of the many billions of viruses that get created in their throat can attach to tiny water droplets or aerosols while a person breathes, speaks or coughs.

Such spreading can be prevented when everyone wears a mask. A different new study shows that masks are very effective. Published in Nature the study is titled:

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks.

The graphic (here cut off for only corona viruses) shows how masks can keep away your droplets from the people you meet and talk to.

If the carrier of a virus wears a mask the spreading of viruses due to speaking, coughing or even breathing goes basically down to zero.

But a mask does not only protect the carrier of the viruses. While homemade or even professional surgical mask do not protect the wearer from all particles they do protect one much better from them than when one wears no mask at all.

A person rarely gets infected by just one virus particle. They come in millions attached to tiny droplets. We do not know yet how the dose of the novel coronavirus that infects a person affects the intensity of the disease. But we do know from other viruses that the dose matters. People who catch a higher dose of viruses will usually have a more intense disease. A mask can lower the virus load the wearer may receive.

One can improvise a mask from simple household objects. One can sew a mask like a surgeon does in this video. This is my preferred model which is officially recommended by German fire departments. (The pdf is in German but the pictures tell the story). This is the mask I made by following those instructions.


My mask.

It is made of a folded sheet cut from a triangular arm-sling out of an old first-aid kit. A HEPA microfilter (as used in a vacuum cleaners) is in between the folded sheet. A piece cut from a clean bag for vacuum cleaners will do as well. Do not use a sheet or insert that is too tight to breathe through. If one does that the air will come in from the sides of the mask and the total protection effect will be less. It can be arduous to breathe through such a mask. If you have breathing problems leave the insert out. The sheets alone are already good protection. There is a piece of wire from a big paper clip fixed inside the middle of the upper seam to fit the mask tightly around the upper nose. The lower part goes under the chin. I shaved my beard to make it a tighter fit. As I had no sewing equipment I used a stapler to fix the seams and the ribbons.

The HEPA filter catches particles down to 0.3 micrometer. Viruses are some 125 nanometer in diameter so they are smaller and could slip through. But the viruses are attached to some droplet that are bigger. HEPA filter are essentially labyrinths of small fiber and the viruses would have to bounce multiple times to get through. Finally the dose also matters.

To clean the mask of potential viruses I put it into the oven for 30 minutes at 70C (158F).

The science says that masks work. Everyone should use one. #MaskUp!

---
Here some additional links which might be of interest.

So far, to the frustration of both the White House and the intelligence community, the agencies have been unable to glean more accurate numbers through their collection efforts.

That's because the Chinese numbers are as correct as they can get.

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Previous Moon of Alabama posts on the issue:

Posted by b on April 3, 2020 at 18:24 UTC | Permalink

Comments Sampler

R0 < 1.0 means it has a descending infection rate, i.e. it is not epidemic.

The Chinese are, therefore, correct in not including the asymptomatic in the statistics.

Posted by: vk | Apr 3 2020 18:34 utc | 1

No one actually took seriously the idea that masks were ineffective against the virus. The governments poo-pooing masks only said so because they failed to secure enough supply.

Posted by: occupatio | Apr 3 2020 18:38 utc | 2

Bernhard, you are doing great work, and saving lives with your solid information.

No better aggregation of factual info anywhere.

Thank you.

This is why people who come to MOA should support MOA. It's a one-man effort of exemplary importance. Donate to keep 'b' going.

Posted by: Red Ryder | Apr 3 2020 18:46 utc | 3

VK - 1
It means that pre-symptomatic are responsible for 0.9 of the 2.0 R0 - so basically 45% of the spread.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Apr 3 2020 18:46 utc | 4

About droplets, it seems wrong to believe than one droplet is enough to make you sick, isn't it? (that is what makes people panicking and accept the lockdown because they are afraid touching the elevator buttons etc).
In February when the first cases were declared in Bethleem (South Korean tourists if I remember correctly) I think the contact story was made with the people who had spent at least 15 mn with the group.

Posted by: Mina | Apr 3 2020 18:49 utc | 5

After saying masks are useless, the above the fold headline in my newspaper this morning was "Trump: Masks Are Good." Another important revelation is the fact that other mammals can get the disease, cats being the most important, IMO. The wife expects one of us 4 household members--effectively two pairs--to get the disease, but then she's a plan for the worst type. I'm much more optimistic, although I've advocated masking-up since January.

Posted by: karlof1 | Apr 3 2020 18:49 utc | 6

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About the author(s)

"b" is Moon of Alabama's founding (and chief) editor.  This site's purpose is to discuss politics, economics, philosophy and blogger Billmon's Whiskey Bar writings. Moon Of Alabama was opened as an independent, open forum for members of the Whiskey Bar community.  Bernhard )"b") started and still runs the site. Once in a while you will also find posts and art from regular commentators. You can reach the current administrator of this site by emailing Bernhard at MoonofA@aol.com. 

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