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=By= Jim Dean

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]his week brought some reflection on how, at the beginning of the ceasefire, John Kerry tried to rain on the outcome by threatening that if it was not successful the US would have to consider reverting to its plan B fallback position, a code phrase for the Balkanization of Syria.

Another way to describe that is “divide and conquer by other means”. But we know that had always been the plan. So I wanted to use this article to show that it was the US coalition that actually got Balkanized by its failed policy, and that we all had a front row seat to watch it happen.

The fall of Palmyra has generated the expected “turning point” media articles, but the first turning point came about a year ago, after the first wave of Syrian army defections to the opposition. Next came the subsequent assassinations and bombings targeting the remaining military and Intelligence leadership to “encourage” them to remove Assad with a coup and save themselves. They said “No thank you… we’ll fight”.

The second turning point of the revolution came when the US-NATO-Gulf State coalition decided to turn the war into a large scale terror operation — I assume to intimidate future targets about what would happen to them if they refused to bow down to the Neo-colonial steamroller.

We had sources inside Jordan FSA training program tell us they knew a lot of their trainees were ending up fighting with the jihadis. That had our own military supporting a proxy terrorist flanking attack against Damascus in conjunction with US coalition members Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey in the north.

I won’t focus on the CIA, because it has been using terrorism for destabilization for so long that it doesn’t even raise attention any more. Whether Bush (43) or Obama was at the helm, the CIA and the State Department have engaged in using proxy terrorism when and wherever it suited them.

This multi-front terror war with its initial Free Syrian Army cover devastated much of Syria. It was as much a war against the Syrian people as against the Assad regime, and analogous to the Saudis attacking the people of Yemen, which is being called a war crime.

Iran came in with its advisors and helped Syria quickly build a national guard which took over local security so Syrian army units could concentrate more on protecting the threatened population centers. Hezbollah sent its well-trained units to support key battles. The Syrian army did not implode as expected. That was a third turning point that helped give the advantage to Assad.

Then the chemical weapon false flag attack was deployed with the big Sarin gas attack and blamed on Assad, as it was intended to be the red-line crossing that would allow the US to launch a massive bombing campaign to crush the Syrian army and make it easy pickings for the jihadis. But many of us could not believe Assad would hand his head over on a silver platter by doing a totally unnecessary gas attack like this. Those chemical stockpiles had been created to use against an Israeli invasion.

Patriotic elements of the US and intelligence communities compiled evidence that the cel phone intercepts by the two Syrian officers alleged to have discussed ordering the move of the Sarin gas for its use, was a classic Cold War-style, staged communication. They knew it would be intercepted by the NSA and used to trigger the red line retaliation. Veterans Today played a role in seeing that all that information got right to the President’s desk, and fortunately he ordered the bombing stand down with a mere hour to go before the planes were launched. That was the fourth and most significant turning point of the war.

We fast forward to the emergence of ISIL and its entry into the war, its brutality and success at drawing manpower from the other opposition factions to feed its ranks, as did al-Nusra. Some of their recruits came from those trained by the US military in Jordan. That culminated in congressional testimony about the huge scandal of a $500 million annual program in Turkey for “5000 carefully recruited” FSA trainees who would even be afforded US air support. The initial groups that crossed into Syrian melted away, donating their equipment to the jihadis in return for their lives, or joining them. That utter policy defeat was the fifth turning point.

But the well-armed and financed opposition and terrorist brigades were able to continue grinding the Syrian army down to where it was in danger of collapsing. The Western coalition was beginning to think the end could be near in months, not years. The Russians had initial Syrian units in training for combined operations using the newest Russian equipment, but they did not have enough time to train enough units.

So the sixth turning point, which caught almost everybody off guard, was the Russians committing to a major air campaign to help stabilize and turn the momentum around, flying out of one small airbase. Veterans Today had a small team in Damascus for briefings just a few weeks before it started. We could sense there was a change in the wind, but felt that it would be a big infusion of new equipment with Russian operators, counter battery artillery, lots of drones, etc.

When the air campaign cranked up and the results began to sink in, the ”Night of the Kalibrs” was a new turning point, with four Russian destroyers firing 26 long range cruise missiles onto 11 targets. That was followed soon after by some submarine-launched missiles from the Mediterranean.

Then Moscow deployed all three of its heavy bombers to strike suitable larger targets, continuing its demonstration of the support firepower it could bring to bear on the anti-terror war in Syria. We began to see that Moscow was displaying how effective its military could be with modern combined operations, and the Syrian opposition groups and the jihadis felt the burn.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia began hinting of a possible combined anti-terrorism ground operation, code for invading northern Syria to save their terror proxies. The Saudis even staged the highly-inflated 350,000-man coalition exercise, where we never got to see anything of that scale in the photos or video. The ceasefire began with many from real opposition groups signing onto it, and several thousand Syrian army deserters took advantage of Assad’s amnesty offer.

This month, Moscow threw another curve ball by pulling out a large part of its air wing, which undercut the accusations that it was pushing for a military solution. Turkey continued its border provocations, but neither Russia nor Syria took the bait by retaliating.

The military focus became a somewhat holding action in the north, with a major push to secure the central areas and eastern areas, clearing Palmyra, then Deir-Essor and Raqqa. This would eliminate any major bases for the Saudis to reinforce, and it will put the Syrian army back in control of its eastern border crossings to cut off jihadi supplies flowing either way. The remaining ISIL units would find themselves Balkanized into doomed unsupported units. Some are surrounded as I type.

Turkey has brought a terror war upon itself after bringing it to neighbors. The US just took a major step back from its NATO ally by removing all US military dependents from Southern Turkey over concerns of terrorism. This could also be a message to Erdogan that continuing to supplying the Jihadis inside Syria during the ceasefire would have relationship consequences.

The Kurds want the UN to consider war crime charges against the Erdogan government. NATO comments in support of Turkish actions have dried up.

Assad has rejected any discussions on federalization, a code word for Balkanization. He and his army, plus the Russians, Iranians and Hezbollah did not fight all this time to throw it all away at the end, merely to see Syria turn into another Libya. And this week, the Pentagon has admitted that Russia has made some positive contributions to the ceasefire and anti-terrorism effort.

The EU is reeling from the Brussels terror attacks and the subsequent revelations that its security services have long been overwhelmed with trying to keep up with all the suspected jihadis. The German interior ministry shockingly admitted that not only was Europe going to have a long terror war, but he rattled off a list of cities that would be attacked like Brussels, and admitted that even Germany was not prepared.

The Russians were right all along — that the Western game of “good terrorists and bad terrorists” was a fool’s game. Hotels in Paris and Brussels are now empty. All it takes is one disposable jihadi team to repeat this effect in other major cities with these homemade nail bombs. Nobody seemed to care much when Syrians were dying. So I ask you all, who has Balkanized whom?

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Jim W. Dean, managing editor for Veterans Today, producer/host of Heritage TV Atlanta, specially for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

Source: New Eastern Outlook

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=By= Andre Vltchek

[dropcap]N[/dropcap]ow that the Syrian armed forces have liberated Palmyra, President al Assad has thanked Vladimir Putin and the Russian people for the substantial support they provided to his country. Side by side, Syria and Russia have been fighting against the ISIS and other terrorist groups operating in the region – mainly the implants from the staunch allies of the West: Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey.

After recent victories in Syria, the myth of invincibility of terrorism has collapsed, smashed to pieces. It has become clear that if fought honestly and with full determination, even the most fanatical ones can be defeated.

It has also become obvious that the West has very little interest in defeating these groups. First: they were invented in the Western capitals, at least conceptually. Second: they serve numerous purposes and in many different parts of the world; they brutalize rebellious countries in the Middle East, and they are spreading fear and frustration amongst the European citizens thus justifying increasing ‘defense’ and intelligence budgets, as well as grotesque surveillance measures.

It is so obvious that the West is unhappy about the marvelous success of both the Syrian and Russian forces in the Middle East. And it still does all it can to undermine it, and it is belittling and even smearing it using its propaganda apparatus.

*

Now that the ISIS has been pushed away, further and further from all key strategic locations inside Syria, the question comes to mind: if finally defeated, where is it going to go next? Its fighters are, of course, in neighboring Iraq, but Baghdad has also been forging a closer and closer alliance with Russia, and the terrorist groups may soon not be safe there, either. By all accounts, the easiest place for the ISIS to expand is Lebanon.

Because the ISIS is already there! Its dormant cells are spread across the entire country, from Bekaa Valley, and even to some of the posh (and not necessarily Muslim) neighborhoods of Beirut.

Historically, Syria and Lebanon are a single entity. The movement of people between these two countries is substantial and constant. After the war in Syria began, hundreds of thousands of refugees, poor and rich, entered tiny Lebanon, some settling in the makeshift camps in Bekaa Valley, others renting lavish apartments on the Corniche in Beirut.

Officially, Lebanon (a country with only 4.5 million inhabitants) is “hosting” around 1.5 million refugees, mostly Syrians, but also those from Iraq and elsewhere. That is in addition to approximately 450,000 ‘permanent Palestinian refugees’ who are living in several large camps administered by UNRWA.

On some occasions, when the fighting got too vicious, the number of Syrian refugees in Lebanon spiked (unofficially) to over 2 million. For many years, the border between Lebanon and Syria has been porous, and even checks at the border crossings were relatively lax. It began to change, but only recently.

With the refugees (mostly families escaping from battles and from the extreme hardship caused by the conflict), came a substantial number of jihadi cadres – fighters from the ISIS, Al Nusrah and other pro-Saudi and pro-Turkish terrorist groups. They took full advantage of the situation, infiltrating the flow of legitimate émigrés.

Their goal has been clear and simple: to regroup in Lebanon, to create strong and effective cells, and then to strike when the time is ripe. The ‘dream’ of the ISIS is a mighty Caliphate in the north of Lebanon, preferably with full access to the Mediterranean Sea.

In recent history, Lebanon has become an extremely weak state, divided along the sectarian lines. For almost two years it has been unable to elect a President. To date, the government has been dysfunctional, almost paralyzed. The country is suffering from countless lethal ailments: from never-ending ‘garbage crises’ to constant electricity shortages, and problems with water supply. There is no public transportation, and public education is underfunded, inadequate and serves only the poorest part of the population. Corruption is endemic.

From time to time, Israel threatens to invade. It has attacked Lebanon on at least 5 separate occasions; the last time was as recent as in 2006. In the northeast of the country, on the Syrian border, both Lebanese military and Hezbollah are engaged in fighting the ISIS.

But the Lebanese military is under-staffed, badly armed and terribly trained. In the end it is Hezbollah, the most prominent military, social and ideological force in Lebanon, which is holding the line. It is fighting a tremendous, epic battle, in which it has already lost more men than it did when combating the most recent Israeli invasion in 2006.

So far, Hezbollah’s combat against the terrorist groups is successful. But in addition to providing defense, it is now the only political force in Lebanon that is willing to reach across the sectarian divides. It is also offering much needed social support to hundreds of thousands of poor Lebanese citizens.

In Lebanon and in fact all over the Middle East, Hezbollah is deeply respected. But it is Shi’a; it has been closely linked with Iran and Syria, and it is known to be fiercely critical of the West and its murderous actions in the Middle East and the Gulf. It is fighting precisely those terrorist groups that are armed and supported by Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey. Therefore, it is antagonized.

The Lebanese government persistently refuses to place Hezbollah on the ‘terrorist list’, something that has already been done by many Western countries and by most of the pro-Western members of the Arab League. To the dismay of Saudi Arabia, both Iraq and Lebanon refused to vote in favor of declaring Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Syria would also refuse, but predictably it was not invited to vote.

Lebanon is increasingly critical of the West, of the international organizations and of the Arab League countries. It is outraged over the double standards related to the so-called ‘refugee crisis’. It is also unusually outspoken. One of Lebanon’s major newspapers, the Daily Star, reported on March 26th, 2016:

“Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil Saturday accused the international community of approaching the Syrian refugee crisis with a double standard; hours after U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon departed Beirut following a two-day visit.

Bassil pointed to the inconsistency of countries that back Syria’s armed insurrection to call on Lebanon to put human rights first, noting that many of those states were removing refugees by force – a move Beirut has not taken.

“They create war, and then call on others to host refugees in line with human rights treaties,” he said in a televised news conference from his residence in Batroun.”

The Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil and his party are in fact in a coalition with Hezbollah. He was extremely critical of the top ranking visitors who are lately overwhelming Lebanon: U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon, World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim and EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini. Mr. Bassil even refused to meet Ban Ki-moon in person.

One of my sources that attended the closed-door meeting of Ban Ki-moon, Jim Yong Kim and the heads of the U.N. agencies in Beirut, commented: “almost nothing new, concrete or inspiring was discussed there.”

In Beirut, it is often mentioned that while Turkey and Jordan are able to negotiate billions of dollars for hosting the refugees on their soil, Lebanon is only given empty promises from the EU and the rest of international community. It is also being threatened with legal consequences, in case it were to decide to remove the refugees by force (the West’s allies like Thailand regularly remove refugees by force, often even killing them, but there are never any substantial threats delivered. Several European countries are also forcing refugees to leave).

How a country of 4.5 million will manage to cope with 1.5 million immigrants is uncertain. What is clear is that Lebanon’s infrastructure is collapsing or, as some say, is already gone.

*

It appears that there is a plan, a reason for choking Lebanon. Several Beirut-based experts are claiming that the country will soon become indefensible. The Saudis cancelled more than U$4 billion in the aid earlier promised to the Lebanese military forces. Robert Fisk wrote for the Independent on March 2nd, 2016:

“Now Saudi Arabia, blundering into the civil war in Yemen and threatening to send its overpaid but poorly trained soldiers into Syria, has turned with a vengeance on Lebanon for its unfaithfulness and lack of gratitude after decades of Saudi largesse.

After repeatedly promising to spend £3.2bn on new French weapons for the well-trained but hopelessly under-armed Lebanese army, Saudi Arabia has suddenly declined to fund the project – which was eagerly supported by the US and, for greedier reasons, by Paris. Along with other Gulf states, Riyadh has told its citizens not to visit Lebanon or – if they are already there – to leave. Saudi Airlines is supposedly going to halt all flights to Beirut. Lebanon, according to the Saudis, is a centre of “terror”.”

The fact that last year Lebanon dared to arrest a Saudi Prince at Rafik Hariri International Airport, as he was trying to smuggle two tonnes of Captagon amphetamine pills bound for Saudi Arabia on a private jet, did not help. The Prince was also smuggling cocaine, but that was, most likely, for his personal consumption. Captagon amphetamine is also called the ‘combat drug’, and was, most likely, destined for pro-Saudi fighters in Yemen.

So what will happen if the Lebanese military gets no new weapons? Maybe Iran could help, but if not? Then Hezbollah would be the only force facing the ISIS that will soon be pouring out of the liberated cities in Syria in all directions, particularly towards the coast of Lebanon. But Hezbollah is ostracized, choked and demonized by the West and the Gulf.

One tiny new Israeli invasion and almost all Hezbollah forces would be tied up in the south, the ISIS would attack from the north, the dormant cells would be activated in Beirut, Tripoli and other cities, and Lebanon would collapse within few days. Is this a plan? After all, Israel and Saudi Arabia are two close allies, when it comes to their ‘Shi’a enemies’.

Then this tiny, proud and creative country would basically cease to exist.

The Gulf States (their rulers, not the people) would rejoice: another bastion of tolerance gone. And one more Shi’a stronghold – Hezbollah areas inside Lebanon – would be plundered and destroyed.

The West might be officially expressing its ‘concern’, but such a scenario would fit into its master plan: one more rebellious country would be finished, and Syria would for years be threatened from the western direction. After all, Damascus is only 30 minutes drive from the Lebanese border.

The “Paris of the Middle East” as Beirut used to be called, would then be ‘decorated’ with those frightening black flags of the ISIS. Lebanon as a whole would experience total collapse, year zero, the end.

This is not some phantasmagoric scenario. All this could happen within one year, even within a few months.

Right now, Lebanon has only two places where to ask for help, for protection: Teheran and Moscow. It should approach both of them, without any delay!

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Andre Vltchek is a philosopher, novelist, filmmaker and investigative journalist. He covered wars and conflicts in dozens of countries. His latest books are: “Exposing Lies Of The Empire” and “Fighting Against Western Imperialism”. Discussion with Noam Chomsky: On Western Terrorism. Point of No Return is his critically acclaimed political novel. Oceania – a book on Western imperialism in the South Pacific. His provocative book about Indonesia: “Indonesia – The Archipelago of Fear”. Andre is making films for teleSUR and Press TV. After living for many years in Latin America and Oceania, Vltchek presently resides and works in East Asia and the Middle East. He can be reached through his website or his Twitter.

 

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=By= Ramzy Baroud, PhD.

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he apparent sudden Russian military withdrawal from Syria, starting on March 15 left political commentators puzzled. Few of the analyses offered should be taken seriously. There is little solid information as of why the Russian leader decided to end his country’s military push in Syria. The intervention, which began last September, was enough to change the direction of the war on many fronts. However, one thing is for sure: the Russian withdrawal is reversible, as indicated by Vladimir Putin himself. “If necessary, literally within a few hours, Russia can build up its contingent in the region to a size proportionate to the situation developing there and use the entire arsenal of capabilities at our disposal,” he said at the Kremlin on March 17.

In fact, all parties involved are taking such a threat seriously, for the abrupt withdrawal has not renewed the appetite for war and does not present an opportunity for any major party in the conflict to pull out of the Geneva peace talks.  

It is safe to say that after five years of war in Syria, the conflict is entering into a new phase. No, not a political resolution, but a grand political game that could divide the country into several entities, according to sectarian lines.  

If that takes place, it will bode badly, not only for Syria alone, but the whole region. Division would then become the buzzword according to which all current conflicts would be expected to be settled.  

While Russia’s motives behind the withdrawal are yet to be clarified, the intrinsic link between it and the current talks, in which dividing Syria into a federations have been placed on the agenda, is unmistakable.  

“UN mediator, Staffan de Mistura, should be ashamed to have put ‘federalism’ on the agenda of this week’s talks on ending the Syrian war and fashioning a ‘new’ Syria,” wrote Michael Jensen in the Jordan Times. “Moscow, plus some Western powers, should also be sharply criticized for thinking of such a possibility.”  

Indeed, the model is not entirely Russian. The latter managed to rebalance the conflict in favor of the government of Bashar Al-Assad, but various other parties, western and Arab, in addition to Turkey and Iran, have also managed to steer the conflict to a virtual deadlock.  

With no goodwill involved, and little trust among the conflicting parties, dividing the country morphed from a far-fetched possibility to an actual one.  

Therefore, it came as no surprise that, while the Russian withdrawal was still taking place, and shortly after the resumption of talks in Geneva, the Kurdish-controlled areas in Syria declared itself a federal region in the north. Of, course, the move is unconstitutional, but Syria’s violent bedlam has become the perfect opportunity for various groups to take matters into their own hands. After all, the very violent Daesh had carved a state for itself and fashioned an economy, created ministries and written new text books.  

But the move by the Syrian Kurdish PYD is, in fact, more consequential. Daesh is a pariah group that is not recognized by any party in the conflict. PYD, which is considered an offshoot of the Turkey’s Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), on the other hand, has much sympathy and support, from both the US and Russia.  

The group was credited for intrepidly fighting Daesh, and expected political dividends for that role. However, the PYD was not invited to join the talks in Geneva.  

Although their decision was seen as a retribution for being excluded from the talks, it is unlikely that the PYD made the decision without covert support from its main benefactors who have been floating the idea of federation for months.  

For example, the idea was articulated by Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institute in a Reuter’s op-ed last October. He called for the US to find a ‘common purpose with Russia’, while keeping in mind the ‘Bosnia model.’

More recently, during a testimony before a US Senate committee to discuss the Syria ceasefire, Secretary of State, John Kerry revealed that his country is preparing a ‘Plan B” should the ceasefire fail. It may be “too late to keep Syria as a whole, if we wait much longer,” he said.  

The Russian partaking of the war may have altered the landscape of the conflict on the ground, but it also further cemented the division model.  

Recent comments by Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Sergei Ryabkov, that a federal model for Syria “will work to serve the task of preserving (it) as a united, secular, independent and sovereign nation,” was the Russian spin on Kerry’s remarks.  

Considering the current balances of power in Syria itself and the region as a whole, it might eventually become the only feasible solution for a country torn by war and fatigued by endless deaths.  

Qatar and other Gulf countries have already rejected the federalism idea, although considering the Syrian government’s latest territorial gains, their rejection might not be a pivotal factor. The Turks also find federalism problematic for it will empower its arch enemies, the Kurds, who, according to the model, will be granted their own autonomous region. The PYD announcement was a trial balloon at best, or a first step towards the division of the whole of Syria.  

Considering how grisly the Syrian war has been in those past years, federalism might not strike many as a dreadful possibility, but it is. Arab countries are historically an outcome of western and foreign meddling that divided the region in accordance to strategic convenience. That ‘divide and rule’ mindset has never been vanquished, but rather strengthened under the American occupation of Iraq.  

“‘Federalism’ in the context of this region is another word for division and partition. It is a curse word and a curse concept for countries in this region where sectarian and ethnic communities have been planted for centuries in the bodies of states, like raisins in a Christmas fruitcake,” Jensen elaborated.  

The Arab region was divided in 1916 to resolve outstanding conflicts between Britain, France and, to a lesser extent, Russia. The proposed division in Syria follows the same logic.  

But if this Pandora’s Box is to open, it is likely to find itself on the agenda of future peace talks, where Libyans and Yemenis might find themselves contending with the same possibility. Both of these countries were, at one point in the past, also divided so it is not entirely an implausible notion.   

It is important that dividing the Arabs does not become the modus operandi in managing conflict, the region and its resources.  Federalism does not just undermine the identity of the Syrian nation, but it also plants the seed for further conflicts between warring sects, not in Syria alone, but in the Middle East at large.  

Only a united Syria can offer hope for the future. Nothing else does.  

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Contributing Editor Dr. Ramzy Baroud has been writing about the Middle East for over 20 years. He is an internationally-syndicated columnist, a media consultant, an author of several books and the founder of PalestineChronicle.com. His books include ‘Searching Jenin’, ‘The Second Palestinian Intifada’ and his latest ‘My Father Was a Freedom Fighter: Gaza’s Untold Story’. His website is: www.ramzybaroud.net.

 

 

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=By= Mahboob Khawaja, PhD

Once the Arabs were leaders in knowledge, creativity, science and human manifestation, progress and future-making – the Islamic civilization lasting for eight hundred years in Al-Andalusia- Spain. But when they replaced Islam – the power and core value of their advancements with petro-dollars transitory economic prosperity, they failed to THINK intelligently and fell in disgrace and lost what was gained over the centuries. They relied on Western mythologies of change and materialistic development which resulted in their self- geared anarchy, corruption, military defeats and disconnected authoritarianism. The Western strategists ran planned scams of economic prosperity to destroy the Arab culture with their own oil and their own money turning them redundant for the 21st century world. Today, the Arab leaders are so irrational and cruel that they reject all voices of REASON for Change and Human Development only to bring more deaths and destructions to their societies.  (Mahboob A. Khawaja, “Arab Leaders:  Waiting to Count the Dead Bodies.” 01/2013).

[dropcap]M[/dropcap]oncef Marzouki is no stranger to contemporary Arab politics. As a former President of Tunisia, he shared transformational leadership to envisage a new era of ‘Tunisian Arab Spring’ – a revulsion against dictatorship and leading to free elections and emergence of democracy.  Talking to the DW Germany TV moderator Brent Gofft (3/8/2016), Marzouki felt ashamed that despite immense resources, the Arab world could not provide safety and protection to Syrian and Iraqi refugees dispersed and helpless at European borders. At least, Marzouki had the courage and intellect to speak of Arab leadership failure and indifference towards a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Hardly any other Arab leaders can utter few words of knowledge-based reason and wisdom to any international journalist or news network. . This week, under the OIC, Arab leaders held a conference in Indonesia to boycott the Israeli products and businesses. Whereas, the priority should have been to discuss the Two State solution and how to reason the unreason with the Israeli leaders. Palestine and Israel both exist in fear of the unknown and open prison and need a rational solution and it must come out of a dialogue and peaceful meeting of minds, not bloodbath as going on in Jerusalem and elsewhere in Palestine. While the Arab masses are haunted by the swindles and perversion of the radical Islamists, the authoritarian Arab leaders show a vivid image of bloodstained tyranny against their own masses. Recall that few centuries earlier there were no demarcations of borders, gimmick of nationalities and flags but One people – One Ummah freely moving across the Arabian Peninsula. Arabs were poverty stricken but courageous and idealistic to enhance the unity of the faith and treat everyone fairly and in a humane way. How strange that with the discovery of oil, and fake economic prosperity, the Arab world has changed into abstract dummies and leaders who live in far away palaces, not with people to understand the human agony and tormenting pains of being ignored by their own brethren. With the time and resources Arab oil exporting leaders possess, settling few millions Syrian-Iraqi humanitarian asylum seekers would have been no big problem. In essence, this would have been a temporary shelter until Syrian-Iraqi conflicts were resolved to restore peace and normalcy for the refugees to return to their homes. Arab leaders had the resources and capacity to do what Marzouki was talking about. What a shame, there are no Arab leaders to think of the common people and the onslaught of military tyranny imposed on them.

Once the Arab heartland was a place of knowledge, moral, scientific and intellectual advancements and Europeans used to come there for learning to envisage the Age of Renaissance. But European colonization divided and destroyed the Arab unity, their culture, and Islamically democratic systems of people’s governance of reason and accountability. One feels impelled to blame  European imperialism and subsequent American hegemonic control over the Arab world and excessive militarization of the entire region. Authoritarianism is the net outcome of this historic legacy. Most Arab leaders are puppets installed by the foreign powers. They betrayed Islam and violated the basic civilized norms to respect freedom, human dignity and justice that Islam guaranteed to all the citizens. This appears to be the focal issue that Arabs are fighting amongst themselves without a rationale just to appease America and Israel.

Western Militarization is the primary cause of the Arab Political Crises

For over a decade, the unending and bogus War on Terrorism continues throughout the Arab world onward to Afghanistan and Pakistan. It is primarily to support the faltering US economy of war and the ruling elite with vested interests. In a way, the US and naïve Arab rulers view it as a success but rationally speaking, this success is claimed at the cost of unimaginable atrocities, dehumanization of the Arab-Muslim people and their culture, military ruthlessness and degeneration  of many to come. There is no accountability for these crimes against the helpless humanity as the wars linger on across the Arab world. The doctrine of militarization was in direct support and enhancement of the Arab authoritarianism causing people’s uprising in Tunis, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Syria, Libya and elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula. Daily bloodbaths and torture of the people paint a picture of the Arabs as if living in the draconian age without any recourse to civilization, reason and Islamic system of governance. Was the discovery of oil a conspiracy (“Fitna”) to dehumanize the Arabs and Muslim people and to destroy their sense of originality, culture and values?   But in some parts of the Middle East, people are getting organized and rising up to the political challenges which have been imposed on them by the sadistic rulers. Ostensibly, the Arab world of today will not be the same for tomorrow.  Today’s Arab world is being dismantled arbitrarily for a purpose but Arab’s destiny for future is shrouded by dark clouds. Out of a terrible sense of helplessness, people have emerged with political imagination, courage and strength to challenge the authoritarian rulers on solid grounds and reasoning and attract global support and appreciation for their cause of peace and freedom from oppression. That was “Arab Spring” – the people’s movement for political change, human rights and new responsible leadership across the Arab world.

 

‘Change’ is a reality for Human Progress but a Fake Simplicity for the Arab world

The world is changing but not fast enough for the authoritarian Arab rulers – fattish fed by the oil revenues and stupid and mindless in thoughts and behaviors if you view them in the real world of political actions and prevalent deplorable atrocities imposed on the Arab people. The affluent and oil enriched indulged in conspiracy to assume power and institutionalize corruption simply to maintain a few tribal powerhouses favored by the ex-colonial masters managing the power centers from distance. Now, the Arab people have awakened after long slumber of complacency and disorder. The problem was well defined by Shakespeare “the destiny of peoples coincided with the destiny of their monarch and nobles.”  The knowledge-based, information age has dismantled some of the illusory borders and demarcation of nobilities and has challenged to bridge the conflicting time zones between the palaces and the people with the internet, cell phones, facebook, twitter and instant communication technologies. For all corners in the Arab world, political change is much desired and inspirational goal for the young and new educated generations. Form Palestine to North Africa, Arab people hope for new visions, new political imagination and energetic 21st century knowledge-based leadership. This was the progressive aim of the 2011 Arab Spring which is still alive in spirit and political activism.

The Arab people’s revolutionary movements for change and freedom is not dead but slow and alive on the horizon but the authoritarian rulers and their history makes no sense on any rational criterion of analysis and objective assessment. How should history see them in a broader global context? What kind of picture do these leaders paint about the nature, moral and historical values of the Islamic-Arab societies? Would they all be tried in public courts of law? Would they run away with accumulated wealth and hide in secret palaces somewhere under the protection of the US, Britain or others?  How would they compensate the innocent people targeted by their guns and bullets? How would they return the time, opportunities and wealth stolen from the people and hopes for a value-oriented democratic culture and promising future to co-exist in a global community?

Refugees Deserve Humanitarian Compassion and Priority for Protection from the Savagery of Wars

If the Arab leaders are not morally and intellectually bankrupt, rationality demands that they should demonstrate a sense of moral and political responsibility to rethink about the emerging crises in their own dwelling. Millions are forcibly evicted from their homes because they oppose dictators like Bashar al-Assad, Shiite Al- Abaidi or Sissi or others. How come Russia, America and Europeans are bombing the innocent civilians and causing massive influx of refugees across Europe? Why can’t the Arab leaders challenge the foreign interventionists and stop the unwarranted wars against the Arab citizens? Are the Arab leaders waiting for Divine help to fix the crisis?  Do they have the trust and support of the people and legitimacy to attract any Divine consideration? Do they anticipate any miracles to happen out of the nothing? Do they imagine that the humanitarian problems will disappear out of the nothing? It is the foremost Arab leadership role and responsibility to extend humanitarian compassion to fellow Arabs in extreme distress and sufferings as they find nowhere to seek protection and safety from the wars.

Imagine, if the Arab world had public institutions and Islamic system of people-based governance, there was no scope for the Western oil importing nations and their military forces to intervene, bomb, destroy and subjugate those already living under half of a century of authoritarian oppression. It is the same story in Syria, Libya, Iraq, Bahrain, Yemen, Egypt and in other parts of the Arab societies – common people are gunned down, their rights and human dignity is purged, the only voices of reason are coming out of the Western thinking people and human organizations, not of the Arab ruling elite. All of the Arab individualistic absolute rulers have institutionalized secretive police apparatus and Rapid Deployment military units to maintain “fear game” and to keep the herd under control by force and torture. This was business as usual for almost sixty years but nobody spoke against it in the so called free world, not even the Western pro-democracy proponents claiming to be optimists and peacemakers. The Arab ruler’s solidarity stems from their own circle of monsters managing the governance – solidarity of the fittest of the few to survive and not to undermine anybody’s harem – palace life.

After the Palestinian refugees, why are there millions of more Arab refugees displaced and drowning in the Aegean sea? Who will deal with the pressing problems of life and deaths facing the Arab masses?  Who will deal with restoration of peace, normalcy and conflict management? Do these leaders have any moral and intellectual capacity to extend security and sense of protection to the helpless people? Rationality is replaced by insanity. The coward and sadistic Arab rulers preoccupied with their greed and need are crossing the limits of the Laws of the Nature in killing the innocent masses just because they demands rights, human dignity and a voice to reason the unreason. Time and history are not on the side of the authoritarian dictators doomed to be crushed by the power of reason and political imagination of the new generation of Arab people.
(Dr. Mahboob A. Khawaja specializes in global security, peace and conflict resolution with keen interests in Islamic-Western comparative cultures and civilizations, and author of several publications including the latest: Global Peace and Conflict Management: Man and Humanity in Search of New Thinking. Lambert Publishing Germany, May 2012).

 

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Dr. Mahboob A. Khawaja specializes in global security, peace and conflict resolution with keen interests in Islamic-Western comparative cultures and civilizations, and author of several publications including the latest: Global Peace and Conflict Management: Man and Humanity in Search of New Thinking. Lambert Publishing Germany, May 2012.

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=By= Panview interview Mathew Maavak

Panview note: The National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top parliamentary body, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), China’s top advisory body, are scheduled to convene its annual sessions, known as the “two sessions” on March 3-15 2016, which marks a pivotal year as the nation continues on to embark with its reforms and opening up policy, shifting towards a “New Normal” for economic growth rates, starting its 13th Five-Year Plan for social and economic development over the next five years and confronting challenges on the foreign policy front. How will the NPC address those concerns? What do foreign experts and Overseas Chinese say? The Panview Column of CNTV has invited some of them to express their views on major issues to be discussed at the upcoming two sessions.

The following is an email interview by Panview with Mathew Maavak, a doctoral researcher in security foresight at University Technology Malaysia (UTM), on his opinion on China’s “Belt & Road” initiative.

Panview: Chinese President Xi Jingping, announced the Belt & Road initiative in 2013, which would support more infrastructure and logistics networks in Asia, Africa, Middle East and Europe to boost global regional trade. Do you believe China’s New Silk Road will succeed? Why？

Maavak: China’s New Silk Road policy will succeed because there is a sheer demand for basic infrastructural development in many parts of Asia and Africa alone. Asia was projected to need $8US trillion worth of basic infrastructural projects for the 2010-2020 period, in order to lift its citizens out of poverty. This is a just a fraction of the critical infrastructural and logistics deficit worldwide. India alone has close to 300 million people who live on less than $1.25 per day on purchasing power parity and here is where close ties forged by Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi can make a difference.

China is facilitating trade and development for Third World nations in ways major Western funders could not.

However, China may need to fine-tune its Belt and Road initiative towards a more Asia-centric approach. This has a better chance of success due to the rapidly growing social and political instability in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and Europe. It’s best for China to develop its near-abroad first to create concentric rings of stability.

Panview: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was launched this year to help with funding on Belt & Road infrastructure projects. Will the AIIB succeed as a financing mechanism for the New Silk Road?

Maavak: Why not? Asia’s population in 2015 stood at 4.427 billion, representing more than half of the global population. Most of them have yet to attain middle income levels. There is definitely an unequivocal demand for AIIB-funded projects. But the financing mechanism will have to be more creative and flexible to ensure regional stability even in the face of narrowing profits. The growing significance of barter trade should be explored.

China has a good track record in building world-class infrastructure in resource-rich but poor regions of Africa – an area where the IMF, World Bank and Western financial institutions have had little success. Furthermore, AIIB loans are not tied to the particular politics of a recipient nation, unlike the conditional strings attached to Western or IMF loans.

The challenge here might be to seek situational funding mechanisms for various projects and nations. The one-size-fits-all approach of Western institutions like the IMF should be avoided at all costs. Different nations can bear and repay costs in different ways, especially vulnerable nations that have demonstrated the political will to persevere towards social and economic development.

Panview: How will countries work together to pay for the costs of massive infrastructure projects?

Maavak: The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is definitely a step in the right direction, where, funds, expertise and resources can be pooled from member nations to optimize critical infrastructural projects.

There are many uncertainties involved here. Depending on the project, costs and the recipient nation involved, funding should be sourced from a combination of private-public sector investments from China and the recipient nation. The costs should be partly denominated and payable in Yuan, partly in the host nation’s currency and partly through barter. In fact, in the light of the current global stock market volatility and a general economic slowdown, barter trade may play a more prominent and stabilizing role in ongoing and future infrastructure projects. Some nations may face currency devaluations in the near future and barter may provide a critical lifeline for them.

China is funding two railway projects in Thailand partly in exchange for rice and rubber. Such barter flexibility is the way forward.

Panview: How will all nations participating in Belt & Road benefit? What are some of the risks for countries to participate in the Belt & Road?

Maavak: While infrastructural projects will undeniably benefit nations participating in the Belt & Road initiative, some of these nations will face a two-pronged risk.

The first primary risk deals with political fallout, where, competing initiatives from the West (i.e. the US “Asia Pivot”) may lead to factional politicking within the recipient nation. This may lead to the rise of anti-Chinese sentiments stoked by a plethora of front organizations and NGOs funded by China’s competitors. In a worse-case scenario, this may lead to civil strife and oligarchic wars. China should be patient and take the long-term view that positive win-win developmental projects will succeed one way or the other. But Beijing should be ready to accept setbacks to some Belt & Road initiatives due to the competitor meddling.

The second primary risk deals with the inability of nations to partially finance an agreed-upon Silk Road project. With the ongoing economic slowdown, China can extract goodwill from many Asian and Third World nations by stepping in through finance such projects in more flexible ways.

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Mathew Maavak is a Malaysian-born consultant who has lived across much of Eurasia and Australia. He is steeped in research and journalism and specializes in a panoply of areas and disciplines including: Strategic Foresight & Planning; Defense and Security Analysis; Perception/Crisis Management; Propaganda and Psychological Warfare; Energy and Resource Geopolitics; Competitive Intelligence; Science, Technology and Innovation policies; and Media, Journalism and Communications. He was an advisor/consultant to Malaysia’ National Technology Foresight (NTF 2010) program and the National Nanotechnology Policy and Strategic Direction action plan.

 

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