The Saker interviews Dmitry Orlov (Updated) • Orlov conclusively defines NATO, the EU and the “collective West”

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The Saker • Dmitry Orlov


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EDITOR'S PREFATORY NOTE
An interview between two highly cogent and honest political observers like The Saker and Dmitry Orlov is always compelling. That said, it hardly needs pointing out to our readers that both, while obviously men of proven intellectual integrity and solid antiwar and anti-imperialist credentials (and genuine democrats after their own fashion), are also Russian nationalists and conservative to boot. Neither has much admiration or use for the Soviet Union, or the idea of communist revolution.  (Orlov celebrates its dismantlement). That hostile viewpoint colors their assessment of most things Soviet, or communist, albeit never to the point of vitiating the broader truths they are addressing. The Saker, for example, and one of the reasons he is held in high regard, does not let his own personal predilections block views that possibly stand at loggerheads with his own. Thus, although conservative by nature, he also publishes a substantial amount of socialist, revolutionary and simply iconoclastic material on his sites. How the Saker and Orlov see Russia 5, 20 or 50 years from now, barring a communist solution to avoid the incurable toxicity of capitalism and its historically inexorable evolution toward a state of complete inequality, corporate tyranny and social dysfunction, is a very good question that I hope they will some day address, but obviously this was not on the menu for this discussion. —PG 

This material was first published on TGP on Apr 24, 2019.  This is a repost.

[This interview was originally made for the Unz Review]

 
“I think that the American empire is very much over already, but it hasn’t been put to any sort of serious stress test yet, and so nobody realizes that this is the case”
If I had to characterize the current international situation using only one word, the word “chaos” would be a pretty decent choice (albeit not the only one).  Chaos in the Ukraine, chaos in Venezuela, chaos everywhere the Empire is involved in any capacity and, of course, chaos inside the USA.  But you wouldn’t know that listening to the talking heads and other “experts” who serve roughly the same function for the Empire as the orchestra did on the Titanic: to distract from the developing disaster(s) for a long as possible. I decided to turn to the undisputed expert on social and political collapse, Dmitry Orlov whom I have always admired for his very logical, non-ideological, comparative analyses of the collapse of the USSR and the USA.  The fact that his detractors have to resort to crude and, frankly, stupid ad hominems further convinces me that Dmitry’s views need to be widely shared.  Dmitry very kindly agreed to reply to my questions in some detail, for which I am most grateful.  I hope that you will find this interview as interesting as I did. —The Saker

The Saker: How would you assess the current situation in the Ukraine in terms of social, economic and political collapse?

Dmitry Orlov: The Ukraine has never been viable as an independent, sovereign state and so its ongoing disintegration is to be expected. The applicability of the concept of collapse is predicated on the existence of an intact, stand-alone entity capable of collapse, and with the Ukraine this is definitely not the case. Never in its history has it been able to stand alone as a stable, self-sufficient, sovereign entity. As soon as it gained independence, it just fell over. Just as the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), it had reached its peak of economic and social development just as the USSR was about to collapse, and it has been degenerating and losing population ever since. Thus, the right model for discussing it is not one of sudden collapse but of steady degeneration and decay.

The Ukraine’s territory was stuck together by the Bolsheviks—first by Lenin, then by Stalin, then by Khrushchev. It was Lenin who lumped in its eastern regions (Donetsk and Lugansk specifically) who previously were part of Russia proper. Stalin then added eastern lands, which were at various times Polish, Austro-Hungarian or Romanian. Finally, Khrushchev tossed in Russian Crimea in a move that was unconstitutional at the time, since no public referendum had been held in Crimea to decide this question as was required by the Soviet constitution.

Prior to this Bolshevik effort, “Ukraina” was not used as a proper political or geographic designation. The territory was considered part of Russia, distinguished from the rest by a prefix “Malo-” (small) and called “Malorossiya. The word “ukraina” is simply an archaic form of the Russian word “okraina” (outskirts, border land). This is why the definite article “the” is required: the Ukraine is literally “the outskirts of Russia.” The Soviets endowed this border land with a make-believe identity and forced many of its inhabitants to officially deckare their ethnicity as “Ukrainian” in a successful bid to gain an additional seat a the UN. [Which was justified to balance the natural advantage in numbers the US and the West enjoyed, since Beijing was still not even a member state.—Ed]

Ukraine Neonazis proudly sporting shirts with the "Totenkopf" insignia, the feared SS symbol. SS-Totenkopfverbände (SS-TV), rendered in English as Death's Head Units,[2] was the SS organization responsible for administering the Nazi concentration camps for the Third Reich, among similar duties.[3] While the Totenkopf (skull) was the universal cap badge of the SS.


This political concoction was supposedly held together by a Ukrainian ethnic identity, which is itself a concoction. The Ukrainian language is some combination of southern Russian village dialects with a bit of Polish thrown in as flavoring. It has a lilt to it that Russians find enchanting, making it well suited for folk songs. But it never had much practical merit, and the working language of the Ukrainians was always Russian. Even today Ukrainian nationalists switch to Russian if the subject matter is demanding enough. Religiously, most of the population has been for many centuries and still is Russian Orthodox.  In my conversations about the Ukraine with many Ukrainians over the years I discovered a shocking truth: unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians seem to have exactly zero ethnic solidarity. What binds them together is their commonality of historical experience as part of the Russian Empire, then the USSR, but this historical legacy is being actively erased. After the Soviet collapse and Ukrainian independence there followed a campaign to de-Sovietize and de-Russianize the Ukraine, deprecating this common historical legacy and replacing it with a synthetic Ukrainian identity based on a falsified history that is alien to most of the population. This fake history lionizes Nazi collaborators and attempts to rub out entirely all memory of the Ukraine’s once very active role in the larger Russian world.Thus we have a mostly Russian-speaking, historically mostly Russian territory where most of the people speak either Russian (some of them with an accent) or a sort of Ukrainian patois called Surzhik, which is Ukrainian-sounding but with mostly Russian words (the overlap between the two languages is so great that it is difficult to draw the line between them). Supposedly proper Ukrainian is spoken in the west of the country, which had never been part of the Russian Empire, but it’s a dialect that is mostly unintelligible in the rest of the country.

In spite of this confused linguistic situation, Ukrainian was imposed as the language of instruction throughout the country. Lack of textbooks in Ukrainian and lack of teachers qualified to teach in Ukrainian caused the quality of public education to plummet, giving rise to several generations of Ukrainians who don’t really know Ukrainian, have had little formal instruction in Russian, and speak a sort of informal half-language. More recently, laws have been passed that severely restrict the use of Russian. For example, people who have never spoken a word of Ukrainian are now forced to use it in order to shop or to obtain government services.


EDITOR'S SIDEBAR
Making predictions is risky business. History can be immensely surprising. No one seriously saw the implosion of the Soviet Union, nor the broad-daylight cynical sabotage of Nord Stream II. 

Incidentally, although just about every well-informed person knows the US blew up Nord Stream 2, possibly with some help from Norway of some other vassal state during the reign of Joe Biden, the cowardly pretense that no one knows for sure (logical, perhaps, since no credible investigation has ever been conducted) continues to be distributed by the globalist deep state media to the sucker public.  This is what Google says when you query it about this topic:


Who blew up the Nord Stream pipeline?

German state prosecutors trying to solve the mystery of who blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea in 2022 have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor. The suspect has been named as Volodymyr Z by German media, who have treated the sabotage like a sensational true crime drama. Aug 14, 2024


Thus, with regard to social collapse, there really isn’t much to discuss, because the term “Ukrainian society” has very little basis in reality. If we drop the conceit that the Ukraine is a country that can be viable if separated from Russia, what can we say about its chances as part of a Greater Russia?

Here I have to digress to explain the difference between a proper empire and the USSR. A proper empire functions as a wealth pump that sucks wealth out of its imperial possessions, be they overseas, as in the case of the British Empire, or part of the periphery, as in the case of the Russian Empire. The latter inherited the traditions of the Mongol Empire that predated it. The Mongol term “tamga” was often used to indicate the annual tribute to be collected from newly conquered tribes as the Russian Empire expanded east. (Many of these tribes were previously Mongol subjects who understood the meaning of the term.)

Here is the key point: the USSR was not a normal empire at all. Instead of functioning as a wealth pump that pumped wealth from the periphery to the imperial center, it functioned as a revolutionary incubator, exploiting the resources of the core (Russia) and exporting them to the periphery to build socialism, with the further goal of fomenting global communist revolution. The various ethnic groups that were grossly overrepresented among the Bolsheviks were all from the periphery—the Jewish Pale, Byelorussia, the Ukraine, the Caucasus and the Baltics—and they thought nothing of sacrificing Mother Russia on the altar of world revolution.

Their revolutionary zeal was hindered by its utter lack of practical merit. As this came to be recognized, Leon Trotsky—the great exponent of world revolution—was first exiled, then assassinated. Later, when it became clear that without appealing to Russian patriotic sentiments the task of prevailing against Nazi Germany was unlikely to succeed, Stalin brought back the Russian Orthodox Church and made other efforts toward the restoration of Russian ethnic identity that were previously decried as retrograde and chauvinistic. There were significant setbacks to this process as well: in the 1940s a group of communist leaders from Leningrad attempted to promote Russian interests through regional cooperation. They were purged and suffered political repression in what became known as the “Leningrad affair.”

Thus, the image of the USSR as a typical empire is simply wrong. The right mental image of the USSR is that of a prostrate, emaciated sow (Russia) being suckled by 14 fat, greedy piglets (the other Soviet Socialist Republics). For all his numerous failings, Boris Yeltsin did one thing right: he dismantled the USSR (although the way he went about it was beyond incompetent and verged on treason).

If you are in need of an explanation for why Russia is now resurgent, increasingly prosperous and able to invest vast sums in hypersonic weapons systems and in modernized infrastructure for its people, this is it: the 14 piglets had been sent off to root for themselves. This bit of perspective, by the way, puts paid to the rank idiocy of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s “Grand Chessboard”: his theory that Russia wants to be an empire but cannot do so without the Ukraine shatters on contact with the realization that Russia hasn’t been an empire for over a century now and has no need or desire to become one again.

So, armed with this perspective, what can we say about the Ukraine from the contemporary Russian perspective?

First and foremost, it is a freak show, as attested by the content of Russian talk shows on which Ukrainian experts appear as clownish, indestructible cartoon characters: whenever their risible arguments on behalf of the Ukraine blow up in their faces, for a moment they stand there charred and furious, then brush themselves off and appear in the next segment fresh as daisies. This freak show has certain didactic merit: it helps the Russian body politic develop powerful antibodies against Western hypocrisy, because it was Western meddling that made contemporary Ukraine into the horrible mess it is. But this was, in a sense, inevitable: deprived of the Soviet teat, the Ukraine has been attempting to suckle up to the US and EU for 30 years now and, failing that, has been carving up and roasting its own loins.

Second, the Ukraine is a rich source of immigrants, having lost around a third of its population since independence. Much of its population qualifies as Russian: linguistically, culturally and religiously they are perfectly compatible with the Russian population. Ukrainians are already the third most populous ethnic group within Russia (after Russians and Tatars) and Russia has been able to absorb the Ukrainians that have been fleeing to Russia in recent years. As the Ukraine’s population dwindles, a natural sorting-out is taking place. Those who are most compatible with the Russian world tend to move to Russia while the rest go to Poland and other EU countries.

Lastly, there is a significant amount of fatigue in Russia with the Ukrainian subject. It is currently a major topic of discussion because of the farcical presidential elections currently taking place there, but more and more one hears the question: “Must we continue talking about this?” There just isn’t anything positive to say about the Ukraine, and people tend to just shake their heads and switch to another channel. Thus, the final element of the Russian perspective on the Ukraine is that it’s painful to look at and they would rather go look at something else.

However, this is not to be. For ample historical reasons, Russia remains the Ukraine’s largest trade partner. Russian and Ukrainian economies were conceived of as a unit, based on the same set of plans, standards and regulations. In spite of concerted politically motivated efforts by Ukrainian leaders to sever these links, many of them have stubbornly remained in place, for lack of alternatives. Meanwhile, the Ukraine makes very little that the European Union or the rest of the world would want, and very little of it complies with EU’s voluminous standards and regulations. Specifically, the EU has no use at all for Ukrainian manufactured goods, and primarily sees the Ukraine as a source of cheap raw materials and labor.

By the time the USSR collapsed, the Ukraine was its most highly developed and possibly its richest part, and some people expected that, having thrown off the Soviet yoke, its future would be too bright to look at without goggles. It had abundant natural resources (fertile land, coal) and an educated labor force. It manufactured numerous high-tech products such as jet aircraft, marine diesels, helicopter engines, rocket engines and much else that was the best in the world. Instead, what has occurred is several decades of thievery, stagnation and decay. By now the Ukraine has lost most of its industry and the Soviet-era infrastructure has decayed to the point where much of it is worn out and on the verge of collapse. Industry has shut down and the specialists it once employed have either retired or have gone off to work in Russia, in the EU or in the US. (Some Ukrainian rocket scientists have apparently gone off to work in North Korea, and this explains the DPRK’s recent stunning successes in rocketry as well as its unlikely, exotic choice of rocket fuel: unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine.)

The Saker: What about the Donbas republics? How would you compare the situation in Novorussia with what is taking place in the Ukraine?

Dmitry Orlov: The term “Novorossiya” (New Russia) goes back several centuries, to the time Catherine the Great expanded the Russian Empire to include Crimea and other southern possessions. What Lenin reassigned to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic were Russian lands, Donetsk and Lugansk regions among them.

There are several other Ukrainian regions that are almost entirely Russian—Kharkov and Odessa specifically—but Donetsk and Lugansk are not Ukrainian in the least. This is why, after the government overthrow of 2014, when it became clear that the intentions of the Ukrainian nationalists who seized power in Kiev were to oppress the Russian part of the population, these two regions decided to strike out on their own. The Ukrainian nationalists reacted by launching a civil war, which started exactly five years ago, and which they have lost. To save face, they have declared their defeat the result of a “Russian invasion” but have been unable to present any evidence of it. Had the Russians invaded, the result would have been a replay of Russia’s action in Georgia in August of 2008, which lasted about a week.

The Ukrainians are continuing to lob missiles into the territories of Donetsk and Lugansk, causing sporadic civilian casualties. Once in a while they stage minor skirmishes, suffer casualties and pull back. But mostly their “Anti-Terrorist Operation,” which is what they are calling this civil war, has turned into a propaganda initiative, with the mythical “Russian invaders” invoked at every turn to explain their otherwise inexplicable string of defeats.

After some amount of effort by NATO instructors to train the Ukrainians, the instructors gave up. The Ukrainians simply laughed in their faces because it was clear to them that the instructors did not know how to fight at all. It was then decided that the “road map” for Ukraine’s inclusion in NATO should be set aside because the Ukrainians are just too crazy for sedate and sedentary NATO. The trainers were then replaced with CIA types who simply collected intelligence on how to fight a high-intensity ground war without air support—something that no NATO force would ever consider doing. Under such conditions NATO forces would automatically retreat or, failing that, surrender.

Meanwhile, the two eastern regions, which are highly developed economically and have a lot of industry, have been integrating ever more closely into the Russian economy. Their universities and institutes are now fully accredited within the Russian system of higher education, their currency is the ruble, and although in terms of international recognition they remain part of the Ukraine, it is very important to note that the Ukraine does not treat them as such.

The Donetsk and Lugansk republics exhibit a high level of citizen participation and a desire for genuine democracy.

The Ukrainian government does not treat the citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk as its citizens: it does not pay their pensions, it does not recognize their right to vote and it does not provide them with passports. It lays claim to the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk but not to the people who reside there. Now, genocide and ethnic cleansing are generally frowned upon by the international community, but an exception is being made in this case because of Russophobia: the Russian people living in Donetsk and Lugansk have been labeled as “pro-Russian” and are therefore legitimate targets.

Russia has been resisting calls to grant official recognition to these two People’s Republics or to provide overt military support (weapons and volunteers do filter through from the Russian side without any hindrance, although the flow of volunteers has been slowing down of late). From a purely cynical perspective, this little war is useful for Russia. If in the future the Ukraine fails completely and fractures into pieces, as appears likely, and if some of these pieces (which might theoretically include not just Donetsk and Lugansk regions but also Kharkov, Odessa and Dnepropetrovsk) clamor to join Russia, then Russia would face a serious problem.

You see, over the past 30 years most Ukrainians have been content to sit around drinking beer and watching television as their country got looted. They saw no problem with going out to demonstrate and protest provided they were paid to do it. They voted the way they were paid to vote. They didn’t take an issue with Ukrainian industry shutting down as long as they could work abroad and send money back. They aren’t enraged or even embarrassed by the fact that their country is pretty much run from the US embassy in Kiev. About the only ones with any passion among them are the Nazis who march around with torches and sport Nazi insignia. In short, these aren’t the sort of people that any self-respecting country would want to have anything to do with, never mind absorb them into its population en masse, because the effect would be to demoralize its entire population.

But the people of Donetsk and Lugansk are not like that at all. These coal miners, factory workers and cab drivers have been spending days and nights in the trenches for years now, holding back one of Europe’s larger militaries, and fighting for every square meter of their soil. If the Ukraine is ever to be reborn as something that Russia would find acceptable, it is these people who can provide the starter culture. They have to win, and they have to win without any help from the Russian military, which can squash the Ukrainian military like a bug, but what would be the point of doing that? Thus, Russia provides humanitarian aid, business opportunities, some weapons and some volunteers, and bides its time, because creating a viable new Ukraine out of a defunct one is a process that will take considerable time.

The Saker: What is your take on the first round of Presidential elections in the Ukraine?

Dmitry Orlov: The first round of the elections was an outright fraud. The object of the exercise was to somehow allow president Poroshenko to make it into the second round. This was done by falsifying as many votes as was necessary. In a significant number of precincts the turnout was exactly 100% instead of the usual 60% or so and counted votes from people who had moved, died or emigrated. All of these fake votes went to Poroshenko, allowing him to slither through to the second round.

Now the fight is between Poroshenko and a comedian named Vladimir Zelensky. The only difference between Poroshenko and Zelensky, or any of the other 30+ people who appeared on the ballot, is that Poroshenko has already stolen his billions while his contestants have not had a chance to do so yet, the only reason to run for president, or any elected office, in the Ukraine, being to put oneself in a position to do some major thieving.

Thus, there is an objective reason to prefer Zelensky over Poroshenko, which is that Poroshenko is a major thief while Zelensky isn’t one yet, but it must be understood that this difference will begin to equalize the moment after Zelensky’s inauguration. In fact, the elites in Kiev are currently all aquiver over their ingenious plan to sell off all of Ukraine’s land to foreign investors (no doubt pocketing a hefty “fee”).

The platforms of all the 30+ candidates were identical, but this makes no difference in a country that has surrendered its sovereignty. In terms of foreign relations and strategic considerations, the Ukraine is run from the US embassy in Kiev. In terms of its internal functioning, the main prerogative of everyone in power, the president included, is thievery. Their idea is to get their cut and flee the country before the whole thing blows up.

The machinations of Ukraine’s “democrats” are about as interesting to me as the sex lives of sewer rats, but for the sake of completeness, let me flowchart it out for you. Poroshenko got into second round by outright fraud, because the loss of this election would, within the Ukrainian political food chain, instantly convert him from predator to prey. However, he was none too subtle about it, there is ample proof of his cheating, and the contender he squeezed out—Yulia Timoshenko—could theoretically contest the result in court and win. This would invalidate the entire election and leave Poroshenko in charge until the next one. Lather, rinse, repeat.

Another option would be for Poroshenko to cheat his way past the second round (in an even more heavy-handed manner, since this time he is behind by over 30%), in which case Zelensky could theoretically contest the result in court and win. This would invalidate the entire election and leave Poroshenko in charge until the next one. Lather, rinse, repeat. Are you excited yet?

None of this matters, because we don’t know which of the two is the US State Department’s pick. Depending on which one it is, and regardless of the results of any elections or lawsuits, a giant foot will come out of the sky and stomp on the head of the other one. Of course, it will all be made to look highly democratic for the sake of appearances. The leadership of the EU will oblige with some golf claps while choking back vomit and the world will move on.

The Saker: Where is, in your opinion, the Ukraine heading?  What is your best “guesstimate” of what will happen in the short-to-medium term future?

Dmitry Orlov: I believe that we will be subjected to more of the same, although some things can’t go on forever, and therefore won’t. Most worryingly, the Soviet-era nuclear power plants that currently provide most of the electricity in the Ukraine are nearing the end of their service life and there is no money to replace them. Therefore, we should expect most of the country to go dark over time. Likewise, the natural gas pipeline that currently supplies Russian gas to both the Ukraine and much of the EU is worn out and ready to be decommissioned, while new pipelines being laid across the Baltic and the Black Sea are about to replace it. After that point the Ukraine will lose access to Russian natural gas as well.

If the Ukrainians continue to surrender unconditionally while placating themselves with pipe dreams of EU/NATO membership, the country will depopulate, the land will be sold off to Western agribusiness, and it will become a sort of agricultural no man’s land guarded by NATO troops. But that sort of smooth transition may be hard for the EU and the Americans to orchestrate. The Ukraine is rather highly militarized, is awash with weapons, full of people who have been circulated through the frontlines in Donbas and know how to fight, and they may decide to put up a fight at some point. It must be remembered that the Ukrainians, in spite of the decay of the last 30 years, still have something of the Russian fighting spirit in them, and will fight like Russians—until victory or until death. NATO’s gender-ambivalent military technicians would not want to get in their way at all.

Also the dream of a depopulated Ukraine to be turned into a playground for Western agribusiness may be hindered somewhat by the fact that the Russians take a very dim view of Western GMOs and wouldn’t like to see GMO-contaminated pollen blowing across their border from the West. They would no doubt find some least-effort way to make the attempt at Western agribusiness in the Ukraine unprofitable. Orchestrating a smallish but highly publicized radiation leak from one of the ancient Ukrainian nuke plants would probably work. Rather weirdly, Westerners think nothing of poisoning themselves with glyphosphate but are deathly afraid of even a little bit of ionizing radiation.

The Saker: What about the EU and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe? Where is the EU heading in your opinion?

Dmitry Orlov: The EU has a number of major problems. It isn’t fiscally or monetarily healthy. As a whole, or as its constituent nations, it is no longer capable of the exercise of its full sovereignty, having surrendered it to the US. But the US is no longer able to maintain control, because it is internally conflicted to the point of becoming incoherent in its pronouncements. Overall, the structure looks like a matryoshka doll. You have the US, as a sort of cracked outer shell. Inside of it is NATO, which is an occupying force across most of Europe right up to the Russian border. It would be useless against Russia, but it can pose a credible threat of violence against the occupied populations. Inside of NATO is the EU—a political talking shop plus a sprawling bureaucracy that spews forth reams upon reams of rules and regulations.

"Once the political elite of any nation has been thoroughly emasculated by the surrender of its national sovereignty, it takes a while for it to grow back its chest hair and to start posing a credible threat to transnational interests. Even in Russia it took close to a decade to thwart the political power and influence of the oligarchy..."

Since none of this military/political superstructure is actually structural without the key ingredient of US hegemony, we shouldn’t expect it to perform particularly well. It will continue as a talking shop while various national governments attempt to reclaim their sovereignty. British referendum voters have certainly tried to prod their government in that direction, and in response their government has been experimenting with various methods of rolling over and playing dead, but a different government might actually try to execute the will of the people. On the other hand, the governments of Hungary and Italy have made some headway in the direction of reasserting their sovereignty, with public support.

But nothing has really happened yet. Once the political elite of any nation has been thoroughly emasculated by the surrender of its national sovereignty, it takes a while for it to grow back its chest hair and to start posing a credible threat to transnational interests. Even in Russia it took close to a decade to thwart the political power and influence of the oligarchy. We can see that the empire is weakening and that some countries are starting to balk at being vassals, but nothing definitive has happened yet.

What may speed things up is that Europe, along with the US, appear to be heading into a recession/depression. One effect of that will be that all the East European guest workers working in the west will be forced to head back home. Another will be that EU’s subsidies to its recent eastern acquisitions—Poland and the Baltics especially—are likely to be reduced substantially or to go away altogether. The influx of returning economic migrants combined with the lack of financial support are likely to spell the demise of certain national elites which have been feasting on Western largesse in return for a bit of Russophobia.

We can imagine that this swirling tide of humanity, ejected from Western Europe, will head east, slosh against the Great Wall of Russia, and flood back into the west, but now armed with Ukrainian weapons and knowhow and entertaining thoughts of plunder rather than employment. There they will fight it out with newcomers from Middle East and Africa while the natives take to their beds, hope for the best and think good thoughts about gender neutrality and other such worthy causes.

No longer able to put up much of a fight, such depleted ethnoi tend to be easily overrun by barbarians, at which point they beg for mercy. In turn, based on the example of the late Roman Empire as well as similar ones from Chinese and Persian history, granting them mercy is one of the worst mistakes a barbarian can make: the result is a bunch of sexually depraved and generally decadent barbarians… to be easily overrun and slaughtered by the next bunch of barbarians to happen along.

What will spark the next round of Western European ethnogenesis is impossible to predict, but we can be sure that at some point a mutant strain of zealots will arrive on the scene, with a dampened instinct for self-preservation but an unslakable thirst for mayhem, glory and death, and then it will be off to the races again.

The Saker: What will happen once Nord Stream II is finished? Where is Europe heading next, especially in its relationship with the USA and Russia?

Dmitry Orlov: The new pipelines under the Baltic and the Black Sea will be completed, along with the second LNG installation at Sabetta, and Russia will go on supplying natural gas to Europe and Asia. I suspect that the fracking extravaganza in the US is entering its end game and that the dream of large-scale LNG exports to Europe will never materialize.

The nations of Europe will gradually realize that their relationship with Russia is mostly beneficial while their relationship with the US is mostly harmful, and will make certain adjustments. The Ukraine, its natural gas pipeline system decrepit and beyond repair, will continue to import natural gas from Europe, only now the methane molecules will actually flow to it from the west rather from the east.

It is true that there isn’t much debate within Russia about foreign policy. Putin’s popularity has waned somewhat, although he is still far more popular than any national leader in the West. The pension reform did hurt him somewhat, but he recovered by pushing through a raft of measures designed to ease the transition. In particular, all the benefits currently enjoyed by retirees, such as reduced public transit fees and reduced property taxes, will be extended to those nearing retirement age.

It is becoming clear that Putin, although he is still very active in both domestic and international politics, is coasting toward retirement. His major thrust in domestic politics seems to be in maintaining very strict discipline within the government in pushing through his list of priorities. How he intends to effect the transition to the post-Putin era remains a mystery, but what recently took place in Kazakhstan may offer some clues. If so, we should expect a strong emphasis on continuity, with Putin maintaining some measure of control over national politics as a senior statesman.

But by far the most significant change in Russian politics is that a new generation of regional leaders has been put into place. A great many governorships have been granted to ambitious young managers with potential for national office. They are of a new breed of thoroughly professional career politicians with up-to-date managerial skills. Meanwhile, a thorough cleaning out of the ranks has taken place, with some high-ranking officials doing jail time for corruption. What’s particularly notable is that some of these new regional leaders are now as popular or more popular than Putin. The curse of gerontocracy, which doomed the Soviet experiment, and which now afflicts the establishment in the US, no longer threatens Russia.

The Saker: You recently wrote an article titled “Is the USS Ship of Fools Taking on Water?” in which you discuss the high level of stupidity in modern US politics?  I have a simple question for you: do you think the Empire can survive Trump and, if so, for how long?

Dmitry Orlov: I think that the American empire is very much over already, but it hasn’t been put to any sort of serious stress test yet, and so nobody realizes that this is the case. Some event will come along which will leave the power center utterly humiliated and unable to countenance this humiliation and make adjustments. Things will go downhill from there as everyone in government in media does their best to pretend that the problem doesn’t exist. My hope is that the US military personnel currently scattered throughout the planet will not be simply abandoned once the money runs out, but I wouldn’t be too surprised if that is what happens.

The Saker: Lastly, a similar but fundamentally different question: can the USA (as opposed to the Empire) survive Trump and, if so, how? Will there be a civil war? A military coup? Insurrection? Strikes? A US version of the Yellow Vests?

Dmitry Orlov: The USA, as some set of institutions that serves the interests of some dwindling number of people, is likely to continue functioning for quite some time. The question is: who is going to be included and who isn’t? There is little doubt that retirees, as a category, have nothing to look forward to from the USA: their retirements, whether public or private, have already been spent. There is little doubt that young people, who have already been bled dry by poor job prospects and ridiculous student loans, have nothing to look forward to either.

But, as I’ve said before, the USA isn’t so much a country as a country club. Membership has its privileges, and members don’t care at all what life is like for those who are in the country but aren’t members of the club. The recent initiatives to let everyone in and to let non-citizens vote amply demonstrates that US citizenship, by itself, counts for absolutely nothing. The only birthright of a US citizen is to live as a bum on the street, surrounded by other bums, many of them foreigners from what Trump has termed “shithole countries.”

The Saker: Dmitry, thank you so much for your time and for a most interesting interview!


BONUS FEATURE

Dmitry Orlov: “It Can Always Get Worse. There Is No Limit to How Bad Things Can Be”

Published on Oct 7, 2018

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Shrinking the Technosphere: Getting a Grip on Technologies that Limit our Autonomy, Self-Sufficiency and Freedom. Orlov maintains a website at Club Orlov (club orlov)

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Putin War Room–Safeguarding Civilians. (Read this if you want to understand Putin and Russia)

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Putin making a point.


Today’s conference was held at the dacha in Novo-Ogaryovo and would probably be 100% classified if not for the 20-minute portion dealing with aid rendered to civilians and further measures for their protection and wellbeing. It must be noted that Russia is treating the Ukie assault of Kursk as a terrorist action since it’s absolutely clear the main targets are the civilian population and its supporting infrastructure. The attack has flushed out one of the longstanding fifth columnist figures that was notorious during the Yeltsin years, whose recent actions were reported by Marat Khairullen over the weekend and will follow the meeting transcript.



Vladimir Putin: Good afternoon, dear colleagues!

The topic of our meeting is the situation in the Russian border areas: Bryansk region, Belgorod region, Kursk region.

An assessment of the current events should certainly be given, and this will be done. But the main thing now is to solve the actual problems that are emerging at this point in time and based on the forecasts of the situation.

The main task, of course, is for the Ministry of Defense: to squeeze out the enemy from our territories and – together with the Border Guard Service – to provide reliable cover for the state border.

The Federal Security Service together with Rosgvardiya should ensure a counter-terrorist situation regime and an effective fight against enemy sabotage and reconnaissance groups. And Rosgvardiya faces its own combat tasks.

Civilian agencies are required to ensure that law enforcement agencies are supplied with everything they need. I won't list everything, but this certainly applies to industry, transport, construction, medicine and financial support.

Finally, all of us – together with the leaders of the respective regions – should focus on the main task. And this is the support of our people who need help and protection.

Before getting to work and giving the floor to the meeting participants, I will add a few more words.

It is now clear why the Kiev regime refused our proposals to return to the peace settlement plan, as well as to the proposals of interested and neutral mediators.

Apparently, the enemy is using its Western masters to fulfill their will, and the West is at war with us through the hands of the Ukrainians. So, apparently, the enemy is trying to improve its negotiating positions in the future. But what kind of negotiations can we even talk about with people who indiscriminately strike at civilians, civilian infrastructure, or try to create threats to nuclear power facilities? What can you even talk about with them?

Second. Such actions, of course, pursue the main military goal, namely, to stop the offensive of our troops to completely liberate the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics and the territory of Novorossiya. So what? What is happening on the contact line, what are the results? The pace of offensive operations of the Russian Armed Forces, volunteers, and veterans has not only not decreased, but on the contrary, it has increased by one and a half times. Our Armed Forces are moving forward along the entire line of contact.

And finally, one of the obvious goals of the enemy is to sow discord and discord in our society, to intimidate people, to destroy the unity and cohesion of Russian society, that is, to strike at the internal political situation. But here, too, there is already a response from the citizens of Russia – it is the unanimous support of all those who are in trouble, the support of the army and, what is very important, an increase in the number of people who want to join our men, to the fighters who heroically defend Russia with weapons in their hands. The number of people willing to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense has increased in recent days.

The leaders of the Kiev regime not only commit crimes against the Russian people, but, in fact, have embarked on the path of extermination of the Ukrainians themselves, the Ukrainian people, which, apparently, they no longer consider their own. The losses of the armed forces of Ukraine are dramatically increasing for them, including among the most combat-ready units and units that the enemy is transferring to our border.

The enemy will certainly receive a decent response, and all the goals we face will undoubtedly be achieved.

Let's get to work. At the beginning of our meeting, I would like to give the floor to the regional leaders.

Let's start with the Bryansk region. You are welcome.

A. : Hello, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!

We can say that the situation in the Bryansk Region is stable today, the same as it was a month ago. We can see by the number of attacks that it is basically constant, that is, in the range of 80-90 attacks per week.

But I would like to note that recently we have seen them start firing more and more at civilians. If we take literally the previous day, the ninth: out of 22 attacks, 11 were on civilians, on the population that lives there, on homes, on cars, on buses.We compensate all the damage from the regional budget.

We don't move people out today. Our power unit analyzes the situation that is happening there, and we make a general decision that we do not need to move out yet. But we are also working with residents, so we always offer them to go to a temporary residence center if they are afraid, but no one wants to do it yet. Therefore, we have this work in place, and we have established cooperation with all law enforcement agencies.

As part of the counterterrorism operation, we have 1,576 temporary residence centers ready, and if necessary, we can deploy more than 32,000. But we have now reviewed, taking into account the experience of the Kursk region, all temporary residence points were moved to a distance of more than 50 kilometers.

Today, the tasks are set by the Ministry of Defense, Marat Shakirzyanovich Khusnullin is holding meetings with us, in principle, everything is ready, everything is mobilized, and we are starting to work. What problems there were – funding, lack of profiled flooring – they were all solved.

Vladimir Putin: Thank you.

Here's what I want to say. It is obvious to us, and I have already said this, that the enemy will continue to try to destabilize the situation in the border zone in order to shake up the internal political situation in our country. Therefore, if the Bryansk region is relatively calm today, this does not mean that the same situation will remain there tomorrow.

And I ask you to take this very carefully together with the law enforcement agencies, together with the headquarters that is being created through the FSB of Russia with the support of Rosgvardiya. All issues that need to be discussed and prepared for any development of the situation should be prepared and resolved in advance together with the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia.

Ok?

A. Bogomaz: All right.

Vladimir Putin: Agreed.

Please, Belgorod region.

V. Gladkov : Good afternoon, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!

Dear colleagues!

We have recently improved the situation only in the city of Belgorod, compared to the first quarter of 2024, there were only two rocket attacks on Belgorod with cluster munitions. In general, the situation on the border area has sharply worsened, and the number of attacks by both barrel artillery, mortars, MLRS, and attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles has increased significantly.

Sharply in 2024, the number of destructions and damage to housing in general is growing. We have damaged more than 30 thousand houses and apartments in 2.5 years, and now we have restored 25 thousand. But, unfortunately, the situation along the border does not allow us to actively do this. The most difficult situation is now in Shebekino, it is 38 thousand people-the city, 85 thousand-the district. In 2024, almost 300 people were injured and 36 people died. We have from three to five attacks a day, mainly from cannon artillery and MLRS, three to five houses are damaged, almost completely windows and roofs. There is no complete information, but according to our calculations, about 50-70 percent of the city of Shebekino has left the territory today, and social tension in Shebekino is growing, because the main thing is that we cannot guarantee security, provide it.

We place them in temporary accommodation points. In general, in 2022, we have 17 thousand places deployed. Currently, we have 2,100 people in the TAU (in the region), and 1,000 people outside the region. After today's events, we have moved about 10 thousand people in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, and temporary accommodation facilities have grown by another one and a half thousand.

According to your decision, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we have the opportunity, today there are 2,800 people outside the Belgorod region (we have a limit of 6,5 thousand people – those who are slightly injured, whose housing is damaged or completely destroyed). Thanks to your decision, 5,5 thousand children have left the country. In general, during the summer it is about 15 thousand people. We will continue this work. In general, in addition to Shebekino, these are Krasnaya Yaruga, Grayvoron, a third of the Belgorod district, Borisovsky district and Valuysky district.

We are very grateful for your decision, dear Mr Putin, to resettle 12,000 people in those localities that are now closed in fact. But in general, where there are daily attacks, we see the threat of the approaching winter and practically do not have the opportunity to call in rescue vehicles. Why? Because the enemy destroys it. We are not able to provide medical assistance, because the enemy destroys it. We are often unable, in many cases, to restore electricity supply, and we understand that when winter approaches, this will multiply the problem. In general, this situation is about 115 thousand people on the border.

I wanted to ask for solutions. Recently, a decision was made to increase payments for emergencies and terrorist attacks, and, unfortunately, realizing that this is a technical error, but still people are very worried, they believe that it is unfair. This did not affect payments for residents of the affected areas from the shelling by the armed forces of Ukraine. And I ask that these payments (this increase from 10 to 15, from 50 to 75, from 100 to 150) be transferred to the Belgorod region as well.

I would like to ask, if there is an opportunity, it is also a very big problem when housing is completely destroyed, a person still has obligations to pay the mortgage. Holidays are given only for six months by the bank, but after six months it is physically impossible to build a new house or apartment building. I think it would be fair to write off the mortgage with the subsequent provision of housing under the programs that are currently being implemented.

Today's situation in Krasnaya Yaruga, I hope that the interaction between all law enforcement agencies, first of all the Ministry of Defense and the border services will solve the current situation that arose in the morning, and tomorrow I hope that we will return people to their places of residence, with the exception of three settlements, first of all Kolotilovka, which has not yet been completed. it is inhabited, but it is actually under constant fire, and we will make a decision on its resettlement with the provision of housing. This possibility exists within the framework of previous decisions taken by the Government of the Russian Federation and your decision, Mr President.

All.

Vladimir Putin: Thank you.

Denis Valentinovich.

Dmitry : Yes, Mr Putin.

Vladimir Putin: Please comment. We have already discussed some issues just now. You are welcome.

Dmitry Manturov: Yes, Mr President, thank you very much.

As for the Kursk region, we are in daily contact with Alexey Borisovich. Reports are received from all departments that have formed their headquarters, first of all, this concerns the federal emergency situation, this is the Ministry of Emergency Situations. All work is being carried out to evacuate the population to temporary accommodation points.

According to your decision, payments are provided, and a one-time payment of 10 thousand rubles per person is provided. Today we have clarified, including those payments that are provided in the framework of an emergency, that these are two different payments – 10 thousand and 15 thousand. All necessary measures are being taken, and we are keeping them under control.

The same thing happens with "Rosseti", transformers are constantly damaged, there is a power outage. "Rosseti" quickly goes to those areas where it is safe. Where this cannot be done, switching occurs. I just recently reported to you on the situation in Kurchatov.

Vladimir Vladimirovich, all other issues are under control, and we are working quickly with the region. Thank you.

Vladimir Putin: Look, Vyacheslav Vladimirovich Gladkov has just raised a few questions: on mortgages and some others. Can you directly respond to this right now or not?

Dmitry Manturov: As far as the Belgorod Region is concerned. I can say that a decision has been made, and you have supported it, on Kursk regarding a moratorium on mortgage payments and consumer loans. All the banks have already started working. This applies to Sberbank, VTB, and all other banking institutions that provided services to residents of the Kursk region. We will also work quickly in the Belgorod region.

Vladimir Putin: Yes, it must be done.

Marat Shakirzyanovich.

Mikhail Khusnullin : Vladimir Vladimirovich, we will prepare this decision, it is absolutely fair, and it should be immediately extended to Belgorod, Kursk, and potentially Bryansk regions, if such cases arise. Denis Valentinovich and I will work out the relevant decisions here and report back to you.

Vladimir Putin: Good.

Vyacheslav Vladimirovich, you will arrange this as a paper, so that it is a document.

Vladimir Gladkov: All right.

Vladimir Putin: Thank you.

Please, Kursk region. Alexey Borisovich Smirnov.

A. : Good afternoon, dear Vladimir Vladimirovich!

Dear colleagues!

Currently, the situation in the region is difficult, as of today, 28 settlements are under enemy control. The depth of penetration into the territory of the Kursk region is 12 kilometers, the width along the front is 40 kilometers.

Vladimir Putin: Listen, Alexey Borisovich, this is the military department that will tell us how wide and deep it is. You can tell us about the socio-economic situation and report on helping people.

Alexey Smirnov: We have 28 localities located in this zone, which is about two thousand people whose fate we do not know.

Colonel-General Yevgeny V. Nikiforov has arrived to coordinate our actions. Interaction has been established with all security forces.

During this time, as you instructed, Vladimir Vladimirovich, we have divided the resettlement of people into two stages. The first stage: in four districts – a 10-kilometer zone, and Sudzhansky, Korenevsky districts completely. On the 8th, all six border districts were fully operational, and two districts, Bolshesoldatsky and Lgovsky, were added to them, those that border the nuclear power plant. Total-180 thousand people. 121 thousand people left for today and were evacuated, and work continues on 59 thousand of them. In addition to our services and federal ones, the DND has also attracted volunteers from the Molodaya Gvardiya .

As of today, 53 thousand places have been deployed in the PVR, of which 20 thousand places have been deployed in Moscow (thank you very much to Sergey Semyonovich – we are constantly in touch). In all other regions of Russia – 25 thousand places. Mobile PVR we have 2400 seats at the station here – this is Russian Railways. In total, there are 106 camps, and 7524 people are accommodated in them. 1083 of them are children. There are reserves: a camp of the Ministry of Emergency Situations from the Federal Reserve for 10 thousand places has come up and an additional 10 thousand places are being prepared in Moscow. Psychologists from the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, as well as local psychologists from our schools, work in each of these centers, and free legal assistance is provided.

Humanitarian aid is issued around the clock. Today we have 10 thousand daily rations, 28 thousand weekly food packages, and 112 thousand liters of water. There are 13 thousand daily meals, 260 thousand water and 148 thousand food packages on the way. There are no problems here. There is also a lot of additional humanitarian assistance from residents, there is no shortage.

On medicine. 1912 beds are available. In addition, a 100-bed FMBA hospital and a 100-bed hospital of the Russian Ministry of Health have been deployed. The number of ambulance crews is 108, 61 work in the border area, and sanaviation. The supply of medicines and blood is sufficient. We continue to draw blood if necessary, there are no problems. The number of doctors who arrived in the Kursk region is 422 people, 436 Kursk doctors work, and 840 – secondary medical personnel.

12 civilians were killed and 121 wounded, including 10 children. A call center works around the clock, and all our possible points of receiving information are written, the administration has reception offices, during this time 35 thousand citizens ' appeals were received. We make payments of 10 thousand rubles each, we have received funds, and as of today, these funds have been received by 2,100 citizens, although 46,700 applications have been submitted. We worked with the Ministry of Digital Resources, and from this morning we will be able to automatically transfer a thousand applications per hour, so we are closing this problem.

Funds have been received to relocate people from the shelled border area to 300 families, 131 applications have been processed, people are selecting housing, certificates have been issued, and work continues. A decision was made – thank you very much – on a moratorium on payment for housing and communal services and interest on loans. Emergency crews have been created, all services are working, and we are also working with damage to industrial enterprises and agricultural producers. Just now, a team was sent out in the morning. The first time the Rosseti brigade failed to restore electricity supply in the Belovsky district the day before yesterday, it came under fire, and the shells were loaded with chemical weapons. They took refuge in the police department, everyone is alive, but both the police officers and the head of the village council were poisoned. But today it turned out, the transformer was repaired with the support of Rosgvardiya, and the head of IDGC of Center personally went there. Half of the district is powered by electricity, as well as a pig farm.

Currently, the Ministry of Defense has started fulfilling the task of building 90 platoon strongpoints, which involves 350 units of equipment and involves up to 5 thousand builders. We are in constant cooperation with the First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, Marat Khusnullin, the Ministry of Construction and the Ministry of Transport.

In addition, 40 kilometers of an anti-tank ditch have been dug out of the planned 46, and the work is being completed. We have also started placing 40 checkpoints. The KTO mode was introduced from 23 hours on August 9 this year. We work with the FSB of Russia and the Department of Internal Affairs.

Problematic issues. Given that there is no clear front line, it is a problem for us to understand where the combat units are located. Volunteers are working, constantly trying to get people out. We have applications from relatives for 3,500 people. Two volunteers disappeared, our DND fell into the DRG's area of operation, and they took out about 2 thousand people during these days. Work continues. Then, it is very important to know at what moment and where the enemy is.

There was a question about payments: 10 thousand and 15 thousand. Thank you so much for getting it settled. People were worried: this is the same payment, either mutually absorbing or different. Now let's calm their doubts. Thank you very much, Vladimir Vladimirovich, for your decision. We will calculate the damage later.

And now we are facing a problem: settlements and district centers are empty. Of course, they are now engaged in military units, not all of them are leaving, we are not forced to move out, so the shops continue to work. We were forced to ban the sale of alcohol, and we monitor cases of looting.

Of course, there is a danger that sabotage groups are operating here in our clothes, in our cars, with our documents, so we are increasing our patrols. Moscow helped, and 1,000 people came to us from the state-owned Moscow enterprise. Now we are waiting to strengthen the protection of railway bridges, roads, people from the Department of the Ministry of Transport of Russia, our DND.

But we still hope in resolving the issue that they can be armed in the same way as with Moscow. Applications were submitted by 1,200 people. Currently, up to 500 people are employed in shifts every day.

I finished my report. Ready to answer questions. Thank you. [My Emphasis]

This isn’t the first report of the Ukie’s using gas-loaded artillery shells which confirms the terroristic nature of the operation. The aim to foment political unrest and demand for the SMO to cease has failed, yet the effort outed one of the sleeping enemies within Russia. The following short essay by Marat Khairullen was posted to his VK and his Telegram yesterday and tells quite a tale that few readers here will be aware of. Oleg Deripaska is the person being investigated, his name is linked to his Wiki bio, which notes he’s been sanctioned by the Outlaw USW Empire and its UK dog, so he can’t fully enjoy the Cypriot citizenship he bought. His desire to have the sanctions dropped are clearly a motive for his actions, but how closely was he involved with the Ukies is a pertinent question. Now for Marat’s report:

Deripaska and emptiness

Against the backdrop of the terrorist attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region, entrepreneur Oleg Deripaska called for a ceasefire. To which a number of commentators immediately responded with a parallel with Khasavyurt[In 1996, the agreement was signed in Khasavyurt between Russian Federation and Chechen Republic of Ichkeria following the First Chechen War, known as Khasavyurt Accord.]. Indeed, the comparison suggests itself - peace agreements with the separatists were concluded immediately after the attack of the militants on Grozny, and before that all our most combat-ready units were withdrawn from the city, which the militants immediately took advantage of. Today, this fact is assessed as an obvious betrayal of the Russian elites and part of the generals, which led to the conclusion of the Khasavyurt agreements, which are unfavorable for our country. Historians call these agreements a forced mistake, which later had to be corrected by the new leadership of Russia.

Thanks to Khasavyurt, our country had to live side by side with a terrorist entity for more than five years. I will remind you what it has been over the years: kidnappings, constant terrorist attacks, the transit of everything prohibited to our territory - from weapons to drugs.
But it was the Chechen people who suffered the most, and for many years they became hostages of outright bandits who turned the republic into a hotbed of international terrorism and crime.
If you compare it with today, the analogy with ukropia is complete - democratic and independent Ichkeria number two, a stinking cancerous tumor on our border, only on a larger scale. This is another victim of the cursed Western friendship.
However, in addition to the external similarity, there is also an internal track. And it is as follows: the agreements were concluded by General Lebed, a direct creature of the oligarch Berezovsky.

In those years, Berezovsky was the headliner of the so-called Yeltsin family - he openly represented its political and financial interests. Today, it is no longer a secret that all the most crazy Russian opposition, from Kasyanov and Kasparov to Navalny, was grown under the umbrella of the Family. Since 2012, the Family has been openly trying to replace Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin with any other politician who can be directly manipulated. And the external forces interested in this act in the domestic political field of Russia precisely through the Family.


Why. Because there is a legend, confirmed by reality, that at one time Putin gave his word to Yeltsin that he would not persecute the Family - first of all, Naina Iosifovna and daughter Tatiana.
And now the super-respectable VVP keeps its word, despite outright sabotage.


Naina Iosifovna is considered a kind of absolute in this regard. For example, now Pugacheva and her stupid husband are waiting for a call in the Baltic States from her - allegedly only Naina Iosifovna can settle the disgrace of a pop family, Vladimir Vladimirovich very rarely can refuse her. Not to mention the fact that VVP always answers her calls.

Today, Oleg Vladimirovich Deripaska is still part of the Family. Officially, he divorced the daughter of Valentin Yumashev (husband of Tatyana Dyachenko, the youngest daughter of Boris Nikolaevich), after the events on Bolotnaya Square, in order to take the business out of harm's way. However, in the expert community, it is believed that Russian Aluminum, and earlier the Basic Element holding, is still part of the financial and industrial empire of the Family.


The Family does not directly control them, but the resources of Oleg Vladimirovich's giant business are always at the disposal of the Family.Figuratively speaking, until a certain X.


And now, apparently, this hour of X is coming. External forces directly appealed for support to the Family, as the only real opposition force within Russia that has representation in power. Let me remind you that de facto it is believed that a number of heads of departments of the Presidential Administration, and the heads of some state corporations (for example, VGTRK) have also remained loyal to the Family.


Oleg Deripaska in 2020

And Deripaska's speech [reported here in English] (however, so far quite cautious) against the backdrop of the terrorist attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region can be regarded as such - the family reminds of itself and is ready to use all resources.
Another thing is that today in Russia the situation is completely different.

Let me remind you that the Chechen war was terribly unpopular among the people - any termination of it (on any terms) by the Russian people, immersed in the despair of the 90s, was considered as a respite - at least one problem less, at least for a while.


Today, for example, people who are inside the front know very well that a whole generation of young officers has come to the troops. They are from thirty-five and above, and they are already combat colonels and generals - they are smart, evil, they managed to go through defeats and won difficult current victories with their blood, losing friends and relatives in this crucible.
They sincerely hate the drill and everything behind them, and they are sure that they have the right to vote. And their voice is as follows - the war must finally become a people's war, so as not to crush the enemy by a teaspoon at an hour. Now they are commanders of regiments and brigades, and tomorrow the commanders of armies and fronts, the future Zhukovs and Vatutins, are still very young, magnificent and brilliant.


This is not the subtle Yashin, who was mated with Sobchak to get rid of the blue sins of youth, but it did not help - the sins won.

Having pushed Khasavyurt through the loyal and trampled officers of the 90s, the Family thinks that they can push these heroes over the baseboard. But it is no coincidence that Putin relies on them, opening the doors of all elevators - this is insurance against the treacherous actions of this very counter-elite, ready to sell the interests of the country when victory is just around the corner.
In this regard, Deripaska's call hung in the void - the people see victory, thirst for it, and to stop hostilities now is the same as signing a political sentence for oneself.
In this regard, Putin is more of a deterrent, because in addition to the military elite, let me remind you, there is a very influential group of industrialists (especially those related to the production of weapons and the public sector as a whole).
They are very uninterested in a world that will be interpreted inside and outside Russia as a direct defeat. They are interested in a world that looks and feels like a victory. Putin, as a system of power, relied on them in this difficult period, and, accordingly, Russian industrial capital expects to receive good bonuses from this.
Moreover, here it is - Victory - is already very close. And if an immediate peace is concluded on the advice of Oleg Deripaska, then all these bonuses will again go to European and American financial capital.

And therefore, when Oleg Vladimirovich begins to speak in this way, questions immediately arise: is Russian aluminum really Russian, or is it just called that?
Maybe it is still worth bringing its content in line with the official name. So, just in case, to deprive the counter-elite of potential resources, ready to give the Victory, already won with the considerable blood of our people, to the cursed West?! [My Emphasis]

Pretty powerful invective. The linked article from Novaya Gazeta Europe dealing with the speech is actually a retelling of an interview given with Nikkei Asia that itself is also edited and not reported in whole. Why didn’t they allow all his words to be known? One of the interesting snippets is this admission:


When asked about his current relationship with the Kremlin, Deripaska, who has long been rumoured to be close to Vladimir Putin, said that there had been “no changes”, adding simply: “They don’t touch me, and we don’t touch politics.”

Except that he just did deeply touch politics, so he just lied. Here’s the lie:

“If you want to stop the war, first you need to stop the fire,” Deripaska told Japan’s flagship financial newspaper, calling for an “immediate, unconditional ceasefire" in Ukraine.

And so the snake reveals itself. My cursory search to see how widely Russian media reported his speech got very few returns, the one provided being the most complete. An example of his being anti-Russian political-economic policy and the lies he employs to sell his point can be read in this article in English from 2023 by Politnavigator, where he whines Russia won’t see any foreign investment and is called Russia’s version of Donald Trump. Will this be the last time we hear about Deripaska and his antics? Probably not since he’s sanctioned and can no longer spend his ill-gotten loot in the West. But now that he’s entered the political realm, perhaps Putin will joust with him once the situation normalizes, whenever that happens.



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Lili News 029
  • In cynicism and power, the US propaganda machine easily surpasses Orwells Ministry of Truth.
  • Now the fight against anti-semitism is being weaponised as a new sanctimonious McCarthyism.
  • Unless opposed, neither justice nor our Constitutional right to Free Speech will survive this assault.


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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS




Terrorism is a tactic of the elites

Please make sure these dispatches reach as many readers as possible. Share with kin, friends and workmates and ask them to do likewise.


Billy Bob's Blowback Roundtable
THE WORLD THROUGH AN INDEPENDENT LEFT LENS

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I did a quick elaboration this morning of some related thoughts after learning about a recent terror attack in Pakistan on a Chinese engineering convoy.

The West (aka the capitalist class) is increasingly embracing the tactic of terrorism to attack their rivals and to do their best to keep global development and prosperity from threatening their domination and control.  A Chinese convoy working on a huge infrastructure project in Pakistan was recently attacked, killing five Chinese engineers.  Al Qaeda of course is resurgent and is "all of a sudden" active in Yemen as IS continues to destabilize Afghanistan.  For years now, terrorists have been murdering soft targets including teachers, police, and other civil servants in Myanmar, in order to destabilize that country and deny China the opportunity to bring development and prosperity.  Of course "terrorists" (Western backed proxies) continue to murder in Russia and Iran and as the imperialists find themselves more and more under threat without any viable options, they will turn to terror tactics to a much greater degree than they already do.

I submit that the inculcated conceptualization of autonomous terrorist groups existing and violently pursuing their radical agendas while the West tirelessly works to track them and protect innocent people (you know, the basic understanding of "terrorism" as spread by Hollywood and the State Department on a daily basis) is absolutely false and entirely detached from objective reality.

Terrorism is the tool of the elites.  Those that the West calls "terrorists" but do not actually control (like Hezbollah, the IRGC, and the Houthis) of course are not terrorists at all.  They are popular groups that resist Western imperialism and who fight against Western backed terrorists (like AL Qaeda and IS).


In reality, terrorism is not a spontaneous grassroots uprising of disenfranchised violent "extremists", far from it.  Actual terrorism is a top-down tactic waged against the masses by the wealthy elite.


So what we have here are two competing conceptualizations of reality.  One is false, entirely disconnected from reality, and existing solely to confuse the masses and perpetuate the status quo.  This is the conceptualization generally known as "liberalism".  The other conceptualization is based on the foundational reality of oppositional class interests and the class struggle that results.  A class struggle that today manifests itself in the struggle against Western imperialism.

We need to recognize and understand that liberalism is an empty and false ideology designed and proliferated for no other reason than to obfuscate the primacy of class struggle and to keep people from accurately comprehending the paradigms that truly drive policies, strategies, and real world events.

Liberalism invents false paradigms and false conceptual frameworks.  Liberalism tells silly dishonest stories (like authoritarianism vs. Democracy, liberal values vs tyranny, rule followers vs. rule breakers etc, etc) in order to disguise reality and pretend that there is no such thing as a global capitalist class that sees the masses as a threat to their interests and who need to be constantly attacked with propaganda, disinformation, mass incarceration, and genocide when necessary.

Meanwhile, the paradigm of class struggle provides the most accurate explanation for why things are as they are.  The lens of class struggle allows the masses to see through the lies of liberalism and to accurately perceive reality as it truly exists. In reality, terrorism is not a spontaneous grassroots uprising of disenfranchised violent "extremists", far from it.  

Actual terrorism is a top-down tactic waged against the masses by the wealthy elite.  Alternatively, resistance to elitist exploitation and subjugation, is not terrorism at all.  One must work to do their best to discard their liberal indoctrination in order to know the difference between these entirely different phenomena which liberalism seeks to lie about and manipulate.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR / SOURCE
Billy Bob is a dedicated anti-imperialist activist and blogger. He hosts the Blowback roundatable.  You can reach him at his Facebook page HERE.

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Russian Intelligence Services Kept Eye on West’s Effort to Weaponize ISIS*

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SPUTNIK DISPATCH

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Russian Intelligence Services Kept Eye on West's Effort to Weaponize ISIS*

An ISIS fighter poses in front of an Islamic State flag (Wikimedia)

Over the past two years, Moscow has collected evidence of Western involvement in training and arming jihadi terrorists to weaponize them on the Ukrainian battlefield and Russia's rear.
The Crocus City Hall terror attack has raised questions about the West's repeated use of jihadist elements, starting from arming Mujahideen in Afghanistan during the Cold War era to most recent reports of Islamists fighting on the side of the Kiev regime.

Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) stated on February 13, 2023, that it obtained intelligence indicating that the US military was actively recruiting militants from jihadist groups affiliated with ISIS* and al-Qaeda* to carry out terrorist attacks in Russia and the CIS countries. According to the SVR, particular attention is paid to attracting people from the Russian North Caucasus and Central Asia to cooperate.

The Russian intelligence service revealed that in January 2023, 60 terrorists with experience of participating in hostilities in the Middle East were recruited by the West, adding that they were undergoing training at the American base in Al-Tanf, Syria, to conduct terrorist and subversive attacks.


Fighters of the al-Qaida-inspired Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) parade in a commandeered Iraqi security forces armored vehicle down a main road at the northern city of Mosul, Iraq. (File) - Sputnik International, 1920, 13.02.2023

Russia

US Plans to Send Terrorists to Russia and CIS Countries to Target Officials, Intel Service Says

The SVR noted at the time that the militants would be dispatched in small groups to the territory of Russia and the CIS countries in cooperation with underground cells of international terrorist groups, including Hizb ut-Tahrir*, Jamaat Ansarullah* and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan*.
 
"We see the final loss of any moral principles in the US security forces," the SVR summarized in its official statement, lambasting Washington's obsession with inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia by any means possible. "Such actions put Washington on a par with the largest international terrorist groups."
Intel data confirming the plans described by the SVR started to emerge later in the year. Russian Security Service (FSB) Director Alexander Bortnikov stated at the October 2023 meeting of heads of Russian security agencies and special services that ISIS and other terrorist groups were fighting against Russia as part of the Ichkerian and Crimean Tatar mercenary units in Ukraine. ISIS is also part of sabotage and reconnaissance groups sent to Russian territory to carry out attacks and terrorist attacks, Bortnikov emphasized.

The FSB director pointed out that Western governments were "actively facilitating the movement of militants into the Ukrainian conflict zone." As of October 2023, the FSB had registered the participation of employees of 13 Western private military companies (PMCs) and members of nine foreign paramilitary proxy forces in the Ukraine conflict on the side of the Kiev regime.

Islamic State fighters fire their weapons during clashes with the Kurdish-led Syria Democratic Forces in Manbij, in Aleppo province, Syria (File) - Sputnik International, 1920, 25.03.2024

Analysis

How US Facilitated Creation of Terror Groups Like ISIS

According to Bortnikov, the US and its NATO allies have turned Ukraine into nothing short of a terrorist hotbed.

The FSB chief likewise drew special attention to the US and British intelligence services' efforts to create a "belt of instability" in Afghanistan near the southern borders of the CIS, where al-Qaeda and the ISIS groups are becoming stronger. To that end, the Western intelligence services were recruiting militants from international terrorist organizations operating in Iraq, Syria, and a number of other Asian and African countries, and transferring them to northern Afghanistan.
 
"We note the increased role of al-Qaeda, which, in alliance with the IS branch Vilayat Khorasan (banned in the Russian Federation), takes an active part in the preparation, indoctrination and logistical support of controlled groups," Bortnikov stressed last October.
 

Islamic Terror Groups Flocking to Ukraine

From the very beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, reports started to emerge in international media outlets and blogs, shedding light on jihadists of all stripes flocking to the combat zone in Ukraine.
 
In early March 2022, the BBC quoted Syria-based terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* (HTS) explicitly expressing solidarity with the Kiev regime. High-profile HTS member al-Shamali al-Hurr took to Telegram to cheer Ukrainian victories by sharing footage and graphic images of damaged Russian military hardware and dead soldiers.

In April 2022, reports emerged claiming that the White Helmets, a Western-backed so-called "humanitarian" Syrian group, had arrived in Ukraine. Prior to this, the group, officially known as the Syrian Civil Defense, pledged to provide "tutorials" to the Ukrainian forces. The group was accused by Syrians of being connected to al-Qaeda offshoots operating in the Middle Eastern country and staging chemical attacks.


Members of the Syrian Civil Defence, known as the White Helmets, take a selfie with their certificates after taking part in a training session in the rebel-held eastern Ghouta area, east of the capital Damascus, on November 22, 2016 - Sputnik International, 1920, 10.05.2021

World

How White Helmet's Cashbox Mayday Profited Off Syrian Regime Change Op at Expense of EU Taxpayers

What's more, initial training and financial support to the White Helmets was provided by the Mayday Rescue Foundation, a non-governmental organization established by ex-British Army officer James Le Mesurier. Le Mesurier's group was instrumental in the West's long-standing effort to topple the government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, according to Grayzone investigative journalists' account of events in 2016.

The SVR announced in May 2022, citing obtained evidence, that about 60 ISIS terrorists were released from prisons controlled by the US-backed Syrian Kurds a month earlier with the aim of dispatching them to Ukraine as sabotage units. The SVR highlighted that the US Al-Tanf base in Syria's Homs province was turned into a terrorist hub where militants were trained to be deployed to Ukraine.
 
"Priority is given to natives of the states of Transcaucasia and Central Asia. The training 'course' in Al-Tanf includes training in the use of available types of anti-tank missile systems, reconnaissance and strike drones MQ-1C, advanced communications and surveillance equipment," the SVR stated.
On October 22, 2022, Al-Monitor reported that it had learned that members of Ajnad al-Kavkaz, a Chechen-led Islamist group, left the Syrian province of Idlib and headed to Ukraine to fight against the Russian military.


Terror attack on Crocus City Hall concert venue. - Sputnik International, 1920, 25.03.2024

Analysis

In Bed With Jihadists and Neo-Nazis: Why Crocus City Hall Terror Attack Cast Slur Upon West

 

Who Masterminded the Crocus City Hall Attack?

The Crocus City Hall terror attack was carried out by the hands of radical Islamists, but it is necessary to find the masterminds and those who benefitted from the hideous crime, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on Monday.
 
"The horrific crime committed on March 22 in the capital of Russia is an act of intimidation ... and the question immediately arises: who benefits?" Putin said. "This atrocity can only be an element in a whole series of attempts by those who have been fighting our country since 2014 with the hands of the neo-Nazi Kiev regime."
In the wake of the attack four alleged perpetrators – Dalerdzhon Mirzoyev, Shamsidina Fariduni, Saidakrami Rachabalizoda and Muhammadsobir Fayzov – were caught in the Russian Bryansk region on the way to the Ukrainian border. According to the FSB, the jihadists had connections in Ukraine and sought to hide in the Eastern European country after committing the crime. The fifth suspect, Dilovar Islomov, was detained on March 25.

"We also need to answer the question of why the terrorists tried to leave for Ukraine after committing the crime and who was waiting for them there," Putin underlined during the conversation with Russian authorities on security measures taken after the terrorist attack.
The Russian president specifically referred to the Biden administration's effort to divert public attention from Ukraine's possible involvement immediately after the tragedy.
 
"We see how the US is taking to various channels to convince its satellites and other countries that according to the data from its intelligence, there is allegedly no Ukrainian trace in the Moscow terrorist attack (…) We already know by whose hands this atrocity against Russia and its people had been carried out. Now we want to know who the mastermind is," the Russian president emphasized.
A Russian serviceman fires a 2A65 Msta-B 152 mm towed howitzer towards Ukrainian positions in the course of Russia's military operation in Ukraine, in the Zaporozhye sector of the front, Russia. - Sputnik International, 1920, 26.03.2024

Russia's Special Operation in Ukraine

Crocus City Hall Terror Attack Won't Avert Russia's Victory in Ukraine

* terrorist groups banned in Russia and many other countries.

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True North

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Scott Ritter

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SCOTT RITTER ª MAR 27, 2024


Point to point navigation describes the long-lost art of celestial navigation, the ability to use the stars to chart a course across the open seas in the age before compasses. The key to successfully executing point to point navigation lay in fixing one’s position vis-à-vis the North Star. Failure to do so meant risking sailing aimlessly about a sea with no fixed reference points, an act that leads to death or, perhaps worse, becoming a castaway on some unchartered point on earth.

After a storm, a ship’s captain and his navigator would scan the skies for the North Star, from which they could establish not only what direction true north was, but also where they were in reference to the position of the North Star in the sky, so that they might navigate to safety.

When special operations forces are compromised behind enemy lines, they conduct what they call “escape and evasion,” the act of avoiding detection and probable death or capture, while making their way to a pre-designated haven from which they can regroup or be extracted. The CIA trains its operations officers in similar skill sets. Both colloquially refer to such actions as “finding their true north.”

Western governments, analysts, and pundits have loudly proclaimed that the men who carried out the attack on the Crocus City Hall had nothing whatsoever to do with Ukraine, and instead have collectively embraced a narrative that paints the men as members of the Islamic State-Khorasan (ISIS-K). ISIS is an off-shoot of Al-Qaeda-Iraq (AQI) which emerged in 2013 when core AQI members relocated to Syria. In 2014 ISIS declared itself to be a caliphate and began a series of operations which saw it take control on a third of Syria and a quarter of Iraq before being driven back and ultimately defeated by a coalition which included Iraq, the United States and Iran.

In 2014 Central Asian fighters affiliated with Al Qaeda in Afghanistan formed a branch of ISIS in Afghanistan known as ISIS-K, where they stood for Khorasan (ISIS-K). Khorasan is an ancient term for the territory encompassed by modern day Iran, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan. ISIS-K continues to operate today in Afghanistan and Iran, as well as inside the former Soviet Central Asian republics, including Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.


Terrorists attacking the Crocus City Hall (TGP screenshot)


According to US officials, the United States collected intelligence that ISIS-K was planning an attack on Moscow in early March. This intelligence was behind a public warning issued by the US embassy in Russia on March 7 that “extremists” were planning an imminent attack on large gatherings in Moscow. “US citizens should be advised to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours,” the warning, published on the embassy website, stated. American citizens were warned to avoid crowds, including concerts. These US officials likewise claimed (and Russia has acknowledged) that Russia had been informed about the intelligence behind the March 7 warning. This information was shared based upon the “duty to warn” principle where US intelligence about potential terrorist attacks must be shared with the suspected targets. However, rather than passing this information through formal channels, it was done unofficially, through informal channels, significantly diluting the impact of the information.

The attackers posted a photograph of them reciting the Shahada, or Islamic oath and creed ("I bear witness that there is no deity but God, and I bear witness that Muhammad is the Messenger of God") which, if made sincerely, is all that is required to be identified as a Muslim in the eyes of God. While Islamic scholars note that it is only necessary to recite the words, for jihadists reciting Shahada accompanied by a raised right index finger, has become de riguere—Osama Bin Laden delivered it in this fashion, as did Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the founder of the Islamic State.

 
Scott discussed the Crocus terrorist attack on Ep. 146 of Ask the Inspector.

Shahada is a ritual, and those who make Shahada must understand its importance for it to have any meaning. As such, if one incorporates the raising of the right index finger as part of the Shahada ritual, it must be done piously. The use of the right hand is critical—in the Muslim faith, the right hand symbolizes all that is good, and the left is reserved for unclean acts: “No one among you should eat with his left hand or drink with it, for the shaytaan (devil) eats with his left hand and drinks with it.”  

The four attackers delivered this oath by raising their left hands.

They also published this photograph with their faces blurred—they were shielding their identity.

There can be no subterfuge when reciting Shahada—it is an oath made before God and in the eyes of men.

Moreover, the blurring of their faces indicated that the attackers intended to survive their mission.


The Crocus City Hall attackers making Shahada (wrongly)

The Crocus City Hall attackers making Shahada


For most militants affiliated with ISIS-K, true north is the path to martyrdom, a one-way ticket to paradise. Their goal is to inflict as much harm as possible before being dispatched from this mortal earth, an act that is usually made certain using a suicide vest detonated at a time when more death and destruction can be wrought.

The perpetrators of the Crocus City Hall attack, however, did not wear suicide vests. Indeed, they had no intention of losing their lives, but rather to live and be able to enjoy the fruits of their labor, a purported $5,500 payment for services rendered.

These weren’t Islamist militants.

These were mercenaries who disguised themselves as Islamic militants.


The Crocus City Hall attackers in their getaway car


And when they finished their murderous rampage, the purported ISIS-K fighters jumped into their car and headed toward their “true north.”

Ukraine.

Ukraine. The source of their money.

Ukraine. The source of their motivation.

The Russian investigation into the terror attack is still in its early stages. There are many facts left to be uncovered.

But there is a plethora of data which allows one to populate the puzzle with enough pieces to begin to see a discernable shape take form.

Russian authorities went out of their way to make sure that all four perpetrators were captured alive.

The perpetrators are in the process of being interrogated. Many of the techniques being used by Russia would not be permitted in the United States as they could readily be classified as torture. And many intelligence professionals—me included—discount the value of any confession made under severe duress.

But the Russian interrogations are aided by the fact that the Russian investigators are not engaged in a fishing expedition, but rather are guided by specific facts derived from the forensic examination of the cell phones of the four terrorists, which are currently in the possession of Russian authorities. One of these phones was recovered at the crime scene, and the data contained on this phone was used by Russian security officials to track the terrorists as they drove out of Moscow, toward Ukraine. Telephone numbers contained on the recovered phone allowed the Russians to zero in on the remaining phones, and monitor phone calls made by the terrorists in real time—including numerous calls to persons inside Ukraine who were working to create a gap in the Russian-Ukrainian border that the terrorists could escape through.

True North.

The Russians have been able to identify the core structure of a support network in Moscow which provided the four terrorists with transportation and housing.

Eleven arrests have been made in this regard.

The Russians have identified a network operating in Turkey who were affiliated with the recruitment, training and logistical preparation and support of the terrorist operation in Moscow.

Forty arrests have been made as a result.

But more importantly, Russia has gathered enough information to issue a warrant for the head of the Ukrainian security service, Vasyl Malyuk, on charges of public incitement of terrorism. Likewise, the head of the Russian security service, Alexander Boritnikov, has stated that when it comes to delivering justice to Ukrainians who may have been involved in the attack on the Crocus concert venue, “Everything is ahead of us.”

Russia, it seems, is navigating point to point.

Not toward a safe haven, but rather on a path of retribution.

And its “true north” is the same as that of the terrorists.

Ukraine.


Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the Ukrainian SBU

Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the Ukrainian SBU

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