Russian allegations of rampant Nazism in Europe

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At the time of the exchange of courtesies between Putin and Scholz in February, I wrote an essay in which I tried to explain the background to Russian claims of rampant Nazism in Ukraine, which sounded very odd to Westerners but found a very receptive audience among the Russian population, where evocations of Nazism arise at every annual May 9th celebration of Victory in Europe Day, marking the end of WWII. As I noted then, one source of Russian allegations was the celebration by official Kiev of the ultra-nationalist Stepan Bandera, a Nazi collaborator of the German forces in WWII who practiced vicious ethnic cleansing against Jews, Russians and Poles. Statues are erected to him; streets are named after him across Ukraine.

Of course, the numbers of actual neo-Nazi groups in Ukraine before and since 2014 have been very small as a percentage of the overall population. In the parliamentary and presidential elections that have taken place since the United States installed its preferred regime in Kiev in February 2014, the neo-Nazi candidates have not scored more than several percentage points. However, from the first days of the February coup d’etat, neo-Nazis have held the key ministerial posts in defense and the security apparatus of the Ukrainian government, effectively calling the shots in foreign policy and the confrontation with Russia.

When the Russians finally flushed out the Azov battalion extremists from their fortified positions at the Azovstal steel works in Mariupol three months into the ‘special military operation,’ they found and presented on television proof positive of the Nazi presence at the core of the Ukrainian armed forces. Ukrainian prisoners of war were stripped and the Russian camera men video-recorded their tattooed bodies, featuring not only swastikas and other German Nazi symbols but also portraits of Hitler and other Nazi leaders from the Third Reich. Western journalists, of course, saw all of this but it hardly was reported in our media. Nor has there been any reconsideration in the West of the facile dismissal of Russian concern over neo-Nazism that Scholz demonstrated.

Events in the EU’s ‘front line’ countries of the Baltic states and Poland have given a new dimension to the Russian concerns over neo-Nazism. I have in mind the dismantling and removal of statues and other monuments to the Soviet Army liberators of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from German occupation in 1945 even as their own Nazi collaborators from the past are given new honors. This has greatly accelerated in recent weeks. Meanwhile, parades of the descendants of the collaborators have been going on in Riga and elsewhere year after year.

Still more controversial and significant has been the attempts of Lithuania to close down land transportation between the main territory of the RF and its Kaliningrad outpost in violation of all signed undertakings for free transit between different constituent parts of Russia agreed by the EU.

Add to that the latest Estonian led effort to close Europe entirely to Russians. A few weeks ago, Estonian border guards at the Narva crossing refused to admit Russians holding Schengen visas issued previously by their own authorities and now they are refusing to recognize Schengen visas issued by other EU Member States. Together with Poland, all three Baltic States have demanded that the EU no longer issue visas to Russian tourists.

To be sure, the demand that all Russians be barred from Europe as punishment for their war on Ukraine has not met with universal approval within the EU. Even Germany came out against the initiative, with Scholz saying that exceptions must be made for humanitarian reasons. Others have debated the legality under EU law of such generalized prohibitions directed at an entire population. But the debate rages on.

Finally, a statement made yesterday by Latvian President Egils Levits got the full attention of Moscow. He said that Russian-speaking residents of Latvia should be ‘isolated from society’ if they oppose his government’s policies with respect to the war in Ukraine. Just what is meant by “isolate” is not clear. Does Levits intend to intern them in concentration camps? Given the absolute failure of Latvia to respect EU human rights norms going back from the first days of the country’s independence from the USSR in 1991, such an atrocity would not be out of character.

I have dealt with precisely this issue in essays going back to 2014 which were included in my collection Does Russia Have a Future?: see chapter 22 “Latvia’s 300,000 Non-Citizens and the Ukrainian Crisis Today” and chapter 33 “Latvia’s failed U.S. inspired policies towards Russia and Russians.” I further explored these issues in my 2019 book A Belgian Perspective on International Relations, chapter 38 “Republic of Latvia, Apartheid State Within the EU.”

The point is that upon achieving independence thanks to the active support of many of its Russian-speaking citizenry, the government of Latvia turned around and stripped 400,000 of them of their citizenship, close to 40% of the total population at the time, and offered them a path to regain passports that only a tiny fraction of them could follow. When President Levits speaks today of Russian-speaking “residents” of Latvia, he has in mind those who were deprived of civil rights including passports and remain stateless up to the present time. Everything that Latvia did to its Russian-speaking population going back 30 years set the precedents for Kiev’s repressive policies towards its own 40% who are Russian speakers after the nationalists from Lvov came to power in 2014.

These various developments were the main topic for discussion in yesterday’s Evening with Vladimir Solovyov political talk show, which stood out as especially valuable. Although I have made reference to this particular talk show frequently over the years as a good source of information about what Russia’s political and social elites are thinking, I freely acknowledge that the presenter cannot and does not fill every program with material and panelists worth listening to. Indeed, there is a lot of sludge on air between the gems. By ‘sludge’ I mean the kind of ‘kitchen talk’ in which expert panelists talk the same non-facts-based drivel that ordinary Russians will engage in when they follow the principle of socializing described by Chekhov in Act Two of The Three Sisters:

They are not serving us tea, so let’s philosophize.

In any case, last night’s Solovyov was definitely worth listening to. The question of neo-Nazism in Europe was the glue binding together different elements of the discussion, ranging from Levits’ obnoxious declaration of the same day to the fate of ordinary Russians in Kazakhstan and Central Asia after the collapse of the Soviet Union, and what to do about all of these challenges to the Russian World.

The overriding point was that the Russophobia and ‘cancel Russian culture’ movements that have swept Europe during 2022 mean that Russians are the Jews of today. They are what the Hitlerites called Untermenschen, against whom all manner of rights violations if not outright murder can be practiced. This arises in its worst form in Ukraine, where Russians as a people are systematically dehumanized in statements from the top leadership of the country. In Ukraine, the ultra-nationalists call Russians “Colorado,” a reference to the bugs that infest potato crops. These insects carry the red and yellow colors of the St George’s ribbons that patriotic Russians wear. This is the same logic that made possible the biological weapons attack on Russian soldiers in the Zaporozhie that was carried out last week by Ukrainian forces, sending the victims to intensive care treatment for botulism poisoning. That development probably did not get coverage in your daily newspaper.

The conversation on Solovyov was particularly interesting in the ‘what is to be done’ segment. Acknowledging that a ‘special military operation’ against Latvia is not practicable yet given Latvia’s membership in NATO, a panelist who heads the State Duma committee on relations with the Former Soviet Union states, said that those Russians who profited from the transit business between Russia and Latvia for decades should now pay up and contribute financially to relocating the Russian speakers in Riga to the Russian Federation, meaning providing good housing and jobs that till now were never on offer to incentivize immigration. A fellow panelist broadened the proposed assistance to suggest a government program of resettlement modeled on what Israel did some decades ago to facilitate the relocation of certain Black African Jews from their country of persecution to the State of Israel. And it was suggested that similar relocation offers should be extended to Russian speakers in Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries where they have all been second class citizens since these countries became independent of the USSR.

This issue of the fate of ethnic Russians living outside the borders of the Russian Federation at the time of the break-up of the Soviet Union has been around for a long time.  When Vladimir Putin spoke the words that have been so often raised by Russia-haters in the West, namely that the break-up of the USSR was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century, he definitely had in mind the fate of the 25 million Russian speakers who were left high and dry in the other republics, now sovereign states ruled by the non-Russian majority populations. In 1991 and later years, Russia’s own economic woes left it unable to offer decent housing to its soldiers and officers transferred back to Russia from the former Warsaw Pact countries, let alone to care for the 25 million Russian civilians outside its borders.

Last night’s panelists argued that the time has come to redress this moral failure of Russia to stand by its former citizens who are Russian-speakers, to offer to repatriate them under attractive conditions. This would respond to the country’s own economic interests by redressing the demographic challenges Russia is facing as a result of its 1990s collapse and birth rates that then declined precipitously. And it would be a direct answer to the neo-Nazi movements in Europe which would gladly exacerbate repression among Russians in their midst.


About the author
Gilbert Doctorow is an independent political analyst based in Brussels. He chose this third career of 'public intellectual' after finishing up a 25 year career as corporate executive and outside consultant to multinational corporations doing business in Russia and Eastern Europe which culminated in the position of Managing Director, Russia during the years 1995-2000. He is presently publishing his memoirs of his 25 years of doing business in and around the Soviet Union/Russia, 1975 - 2000. Memoirs of a Russianist, Volume I: From the Ground Up was published on 10 November 2020. Volume II: Russia in the Roaring 1990s will go to press in two months.

Originally published: Gilbert Doctorow Blog on August 25, 2022 (more by Gilbert Doctorow Blog)

The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.


 

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ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS

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Russia will mobilize about 1.2% of her mobilizational potential (UPDATED!)

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Andrei Raevsky
THE SAKER
OPEDS

A few comments about this decision:

  • It will take Russia a few months to gather and retrain (refresher courses) these forces and they will not be immediately available to protect the Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhie and Kherson regions during the upcoming referendum on whether to join Russia or not.  The 3rd volunteer army corps is already deployed in the south and could greatly assist in this.
  • Putin and Shoigu gave several reasons for this decision, including the very long line of contact, the direct involvement of NATO personnel who are now running the Ukronazi regime in Kiev and the threats by the West to dismantle Russia.
  • Shoigu indicated that the UAF lost about 50% of its personnel (over 100’000 soldiers out of a total potential of about 200’000).  He also added that most of the Ukrainian weapons systems, which were of Soviet origin, were mostly destroyed.  Russian KIAs are just under 6000 soldiers.
  • Shoigu also clearly spelled out that “we are not so much fighting against Ukraine but against NATO plus the united (collective) West“.
  • Shoigu also mentioned that all of the NATO satellite capabilities (70 military and 200+ civilian satellites) are used against Russia right now.
  • Finally, Shoigu added that NATO high-precision weapons are deliberately used by NATO commanders to terrorize civilians.

In other words, Russia is preparing for an escalation of this war in the coming months.  She is basically augmenting her forces to a level that could deal with a major NATO escalation in the Ukraine (and elsewhere as not all mobilized forces would have to be combat units; deploying more C4ISR capabilities, logistics/supply forces or civil affairs and counter-terrorism units would also make sense).

The other big news of the day is, of course, that Russia will back and accept the outcome of the referendums in the four regions mentioned above.

Frankly, I have mixed feelings about this decision, but I understand that the Kremlin simply had no other option for the following reasons:

  • This decision put away the thorny issue of “will the Russians stay or leave”?  Once the four regions vote to become part of Russia (which most opinion polls say will happen), they will forever retain that status.
  • With all the rumors in the West about a limited use of nuclear forces, by making these four regions part of Russian proper, not just de facto but also de jure, Russia extends her nuclear umbrella over them (Russian military doctrine allows for the use of nukes if the territorial integrity and safety of Russia are under threat).  Here I will quote Putin:

They have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail. I am referring not only to the Western-encouraged shelling of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant, which poses a threat of a nuclear disaster, but also to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction – nuclear weapons – against Russia.  I would like to remind those who make such statements regarding Russia that our country has different types of weapons as well, and some of them are more modern than the weapons NATO countries have. In the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us. This is not a bluff.

  • Furthermore, I have always said that for all my total support and sympathy, the LDNR republics have major issues (including security issues!) and I am immensely relieved that the Russian state organs, including security services, will now directly take over the management of these republics.

Of course, we can expect the usual hysterics and doubling-down from the western ruling class which already promised never to recognize the outcome of any referendums.  Russia understands that and she has now taken the measures needed for a long conflict.

As for the Ukronazis, we can be sure that they will do everything in their power to try to disrupt the referendums.  Furthermore, the NATO commanders in Kiev fully understand that the Russian forces will only become more powerful over the next few months, so they will be in a hurry to score as many victories (including the murder of civilians and strikes against the civilian infrastructure) as possible.

I fully expect an increase in NATO+Ukronazi attacks in the coming weeks and months.  These attacks will only stop when a) the West runs out of resources and b) when their outcome will bring no tangible results whatsoever.

For the consolidated West, this has been mostly about optics: PR, PSYOPs, propaganda, you name it.  With this latest Russian reaction, it will become even MORE crucial for the rulers of the consolidated West to convince their serfs that Russia is losing and the West winning.

Since the western ruling classes know that time is running out (both militarily AND economically) they are desperately trying to conceal this by vociferously proclaiming that the Russian “field negros” will get punished (lynched!) for their audacity in disobeying the Great Masters of the Universe.

I want to note here that this mini-mobilization will have an important psychological effect upon Russian society: the “business as usual” mindset is now clearly obsolete.  The Russian MIC has received a direct message that it is now also “mobilized”.  The rest of the Russian economy will take notice, I am sure.  As will the people.  I welcome that “change of tone” very much.

Anyway, I will conclude with a few short items.

Some trolls have constantly been begging me to “show them the bodies”.  Okay, I found a Telegram channel with enough bodies to, hopefully, satisfy them: https://t.me/ZLOIORK

Next, the Poles have already threatened to conduct their own referendum in western Ukraine.  Who would have doubted that the Hyena of Europe will bite off a little morsel of Ukraine for itself (especially one which did belong to Poland historically?).

In the meantime, Armenia has threatened to leave the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a decision which, if that happens, I will fully support and celebrate!  The CSTO needs a good cleaning, to put it mildly.  Russia saved the sorry asses of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian, and yet all three are still playing that wannabe smart-ass policy of “multi-vectors” which, in plain English, means “we want Russia to protect us while we sell out to the USA”.  The truth is that Russia has much better partners than most of her immediate neighbors and the likes of Lukashenko, Tokaev and Pashinian need to learn things the hard way.  That is what Armenia is experiencing right now.  Maybe Lukashenko and Tokaev will get the message and learn the lesson.  As for Armenia, it will just get what it deserves…

In sharp contrast to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iran and even Turkey have been much more responsible partners for Russia (though Turkey also needs a “reminder” from time to time to behave).  And since now the Armenians have “security guarantees” from no less than Pelosi (!) they can now sleep in peace with no need for Russian protection, right?  😆

As for the City on the Hill, the world's Sole Superpower, it is busy with nonsense like this: “Unexpectedly, the USAF Finds Itself With a Critical Shortage of Pilots While It Says It Has Too Many White Officers“.  As the French like to say, the more things change, the more they remain the same…

On a more personal note, we now have almost 1000 commentators who signed up.  Thank you all for taking the time to do so!  The comments section is already showing clear signs of improvement (already much fewer trolls/idiots than in the past).

That’s it on my end.  Now I turn the comments section over to you.

Cheers

—Andrei

UPDATE: Russian sources are reporting that western PSYOPs are actively spreading FUD all over the Russian Internet with all sorts of nonsense about the partial mobilization.  Hardly a surprise, so please try not to fall for this nonsense.

PS: The clueless Russian 5th column tried to organize some protests against this mini-mobilization.  The outcome? 364 people arrested.  96 is Saint Petersburg, 89 in Moscow and 45 in Ekaterinburg.  Which gives you a good idea of how utterly irrelevant the 5th column has become in Russia (except in the circles of power where Atlantic Integrationists are still hiding waiting for better times).

Here is a photo of Alexander Belik, the coordinator (while Navalny is in jail for fraud) of the “movement of conscientious objectors”.  I don’t think I need to comment about this 😉


Andrei Raevsky is the editor in chief (and founder) of the Saker network of sites dedicated to geostrategic analysis and commentary on the clash between "the West" and the emerging Eurasian bloc, led by Russia, China, Indian, and Iran.


APPENDIX
Putin announces partial mobilization in Russia

Executive Order on partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation
In a nationwide address on Wednesday morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial military mobilization.

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(Ed Note: The RT.com video has gotten almost uniform support and acclaim from the viewers. The usual contingent of trolls and Western idiots and robots seem to be momentarily, at least, absent.)

The President signed an Executive Order Declaring Partial Mobilisation in the Russian Federation.

As per federal laws No. 61-FZ On Defence, dated May 31, 1996, and No. 31-FZ On Mobilisation Preparations and Mobilisation in the Russian Federation, dated February 26, 1997, and Federal Law No. 53-FZ On the Military Duty and Military Service, dated March 28, 1998, the President declared a partial mobilisation in the Russian Federation as of September 21, 2022.

The Executive Order provides for calling up citizens of the Russian Federation for service in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation as part of the mobilisation effort. Citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service as part of mobilisation will enjoy the status of military personnel serving in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation under contract.

The Executive Order sets forth money allowances for the citizens of the Russian Federation called up for military service as part of mobilisation, as well as the duration of the military service contracts signed by the military personnel, grounds for discharging military personnel serving under contract, as well as citizens called up for military service in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation as part of mobilisation.

Corresponding instructions have been issued to the Government of the Russian Federation and top government officials in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

Under the Executive Order, citizens of the Russian Federation employed by defence companies will benefit from an exemption from the mobilisation draft for the period of their employment by these organisations. The Government of the Russian Federation shall define the categories of citizens of the Russian Federation who have the right to draft exemptions and the manner in which these exemptions shall be provided.

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Understanding Planning, Orders and Troop Movements in Ukraine

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That cinema account of how Patton planned and shifted the axis of attack of his troops is presented as something hastily put together. The German offensive started on 16 December and Patton met with Eisenhower on the 19th of December and received orders to relieve Bastogne. Patton’s troops moved out on the 22nd of December and reached Bastogne on the 26th. What the movie account fails to convey is that the planning for moving his Army north began on December 9, ten days before the emergency conference with Eisenhower.

Patton’s J-2 (i.e., his intel chief) briefed the following on 9 December:

  1. By the end of October four panzer divisions had been identified refitting near Paderborn, far north of the Third Army’s left boundary.
  2. By November 10 the Germans had pulled five more panzer divisions out of the line.
  3. Of the fifteen panzer divisions in the west, only five remained in contact in mid-November.
  4. Starting November 17, aerial reconnaissance detected huge German rail movements to the north of the Third Army’s projected zone of advance—226 trains on November 18 alone.
  5. By November 23 Koch had identified the newly established Sixth Panzer Army, including five of its reconstituted panzer divisions.
  6. On December 2 the U.S. Seventh Army, to the south of Third Army, reported that the formidable Panzer Lehr Division was out of the line.
  7. By December 7 the Germans were holding at least thirteen divisions in reserve.

(I encourage you to read the whole article about the real story of Patton’s rescue effort at the link above.)

So why is this important? The process any first world army (e.g., United States, Russia, Ukraine) follows in moving troops and equipment from one point to a distant location follows a well-defined planning process.



The planning process Patton followed is similar to what the U.S. military uses today. The current system is known as the Joint Operation Planning and Execution System aka JOPES. I have been involved in scripting and executing over 240 crisis response exercises. I worked for 23 years for the man who wrote JOPES, so I have some insight to the process. He beat it into me. It starts with an Alert Order (e.g. Be Prepared to Act) usually followed Warning Order (e.g., Houston we have a specific problem, tell us how you plan to solve it). The military command that receives the warning order immediately tasks it staff to prepare Courses of Action aka COAs.

Those COAs are then sent back via a written message laying out what forces would be used, what resources (i.e., air support, artillery, vehicles, medical, etc.) are required to carry out the COA. The COA for organizing and deploying a Special Operations unit is much easier and less time consuming than that required to organize and deploy battalions and regiments of soldiers.

Once the COA is approved the relevant military units receive a Deployment Order. It means what it says. The military units identified for action start moving via train, truck or plane. Depends on the operation. But they are moving into place and do not initiate action until they commanders receive an Execution Order.

Since the United States and NATO are involved directly with Ukraine’s military planning, I am certain they followed the JOPES process. That means the planning for the Kharkov offensive probably started the first of September, perhaps even earlier, i.e. July or August. Assembling and moving the men and equipment to deployment points took some time. It was not done overnight.

I am not familiar with the Russian planning system, but I am pretty sure the Russians follow a similar procedure to JOPES. It is important to understand this with reference to the offensive taking place around Kharkov. The Russian forces started moving into the area on Thursday, 8 September. And we are talking about hundreds of trucks, tanks, towed artillery and troops.

So, was Russia caught by surprise? No. They had at least one week’s warning of the impending Ukrainian attack. If you want to believe that Russia’s intelligence service is incompetent or was deceived in this operation, enjoy the fantasy. The Russian planners had a couple of choices. They could have moved their forces into position earlier but that would have tipped off the Ukrainians and west that the planned offensive was compromised.

Alternatively, the Russian planners may have decided to mask their movements and made choices about which villages and cities to defend and which to abandon. If Russia had moved preemptively to reinforce Izyum that would have raised warning flags for the Ukrainian and NATO planners.

I agree with Andrei Martyanov’s take–the Russians knew it was coming and chose to let the Ukrainians flood the zone in order to eventually hit the Ukrainian forces with a massive counter attack. The Ukrainians are no longer in fortified defensive positions and their lines of communication to support the forward troops are now defined precisely. The Ukrainian attack has not destroyed nor disrupted Russia’s air, artillery, rocket and missile assets. Attacking the Ukrainian units is an easier task, not more difficult.

I am not privy to the Russian plan. But what I do know is that the planning process required to deploy the troops and equipment moving into Kharkov was not a panicked response. Hollywood can create the illusion of rapid movement of military troops, but the real world requires alerting units, making sure they are properly supplied and then undertaking the logistic task of moving those units into combat. This means the planning was deliberate, not a crisis response.


ABOUT LARRY C. JOHNSON

Larry C Johnson is a man of the right who personally and by familial tradition understands the military and the valid reasons for which blood may be spilled in the pursuit of defeating tyrannies. His blog is dedicated "to the pursuit of truth without regard to partisan advantage."


Reader (Original) Comments
SELECTED FOR INTRINSIC INTEREST

  1.  Vikram C says

    10 September 2022 at 22:16

    There are better ways of doing counteroffensive than betraying local population and hurting morale of allies supporting Russia. If denting Ukraine forces is the real aim, they could stay in Russian territory and fight on border and not leave people under fanatics. No one can trust Russia ever again. On this one, I am pretty sure there are some traitors involved.

    My explanation is that Russians have preferred economic war over military over past 2 months as it seems more promising and expected by winter EU U.S unity and support to wither. But with humiliating loss they have given huge filip to their morale and dented of local population, its troops and 150 odd countries that did not vote against it in UN and it’s arms buyers.

    What worked in Kharkiv can work in Donbass too. Ukraine will put in another 50,000 and MoD will redeploy troops again. What credible defense mechanism do they have?

    It boils down to Russians just not having fight in them as their territory is not at stake and Russian speakers in Ukraine are just expendables. Too sad a lot of well meaning people seeking multipolarity in world fell for their scam.

        •  WD Ferraby says

          11 September 2022 at 10:08

          I doubt the Russian’s left behind compromised people. Requests and invitations were made … some more forcefully than others. This would be the last conclusion one should jump to. True to the times though …. who really knows for sure.

      •  CZen says

        11 September 2022 at 09:30

        It’s so welcome and pleasantly surprising to see you respond in this way Mr. Johnson: with intellectual generosity and an easygoing “agree to disagree” attitude. By contrast, unfortunately, any dissenting opinions – even of the mildest variety – on Mr. Martyanov’s blog are met with derision, insults and, ultimately, being blocked by him. I realize you are friends (at least at some level) and frequently cite each other, but there’s a marked difference in attitude to opposing views. He has zero tolerance, and especially on this topic, is exceedingly defensive. All of this makes me wonder if this sensitivity to criticism of his views and/or Russia’s actions shows that, at some level, he does realize the criticism does have some force.

        The problem is that, although one can be an “expert” in warfare in terms of its mechanics, strategy, operations, etc. … this is insufficient to understand the nature of warfare as a whole, because factors like propaganda and psychology and politics ARE a part of warfare. (See: Clausewitz!) And if, like Mr. Martyanov, you have nothing to say about these additional factors, and if you treat them as some sort of extraneous and irrelevant consideration, then you really don’t understand the nature of war.

        For example, the sort of view expressed by Vicram C. above is important and carries weight because – whether or not allowing Ukraine to make these advances is really a clever trap by the Russian military, as Mr. Martyanov and you both claim – PERCEPTIONS on the part of both Russia’s friend and enemies DO count and they DO matter! This is something that Alexander Mercouris understands well, and he discusses it at length in his vlog from a day ago.

        Either way: I’m really glad to see you are much more open to opposing views, and I will follow your blog more closely now.


Addendum: 
Comment on the eliminary assumptions
IS UKRAINE STEAMROLLING RUSSIA?

At last. After six months of surrendering territory, Ukraine is on the move and Russia is retreating. Right? Not so fast. Ukraine tried and failed to penetrate the Russian lines around Kherson. That fizzled and Ukraine suffered enormous casualties. Russia did not.

But wait. Ukraine has now unleashed a new offensive in the north around Kharkov and has made some gains. Gee, what a coincidence. The same week that the United States with NATO convened a Ramstein Conference to assess Ukraine’s progress in the war, a gigantic triumph is being trumpeted on the internet. Russia, finally, is really, really on its heels and on the verge of surrendering the Donbas to the marauding Ukrainian troops. At least that is what Ukraine and its NATO allies are saying and the press is happily pushing that meme.

Now, back to reality. The Russian allied forces that faced the brunt of the Ukrainian attack are not the Russian army’s front line troops. It is a mixture of Donbas militia and Russian national guard. When faced with a Ukrainian force that has more troops it should not be a surprise that the outgunned militia and police would retreat and surrender territory. A tactical retreat is sound military strategy.

But what kind of territory? We are talking rural villages and small cities. These are not critical industrial centers. Rather than reinvent the wheel, I encourage you to read the analysis from Andrei Martyanov, The Saker and Moon Of Alabama:

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/09/as-was-expected.html

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/09/the-izium-counteroffensive-success-disaster.html#more

This entire operation has one point–persuade Washington and NATO that Ukraine still has a chance to succeed. But this means ignoring the fact that Kherson, Mariupol, Luhansk and most of Donetsk is still controlled by Russia and Russian allied forces. It also ignores the fact that Ukraine’s concentration of forces in this narrow area (see the maps highlighted by The Saker) creates a ripe target for Russian air, rocket, missile and artillery forces to hit.


My suggestion–hold your water and go lay down on the fainting couch. This is not the German Army at the outskirts of Moscow. This is not Von Paulus rolling into Stalingrad for certain victory. If calling this a tactical defeat makes you feel warm and fuzzy, shout away and cheer Ukraine. What is not being shown, yet, are the horrendous casualties the Ukrainians are suffering.

If this really was a decisive triumph why are foreign journalists being kept from the front line of the attack to record the impressive Ukrainian victory? It is one thing to spin propaganda out from the safe confines of Kiev. It is a whole different ballgame to go to where the battle is taking place and recording what is actually taking place. The dog ain’t barking:

‘The dog that didn’t bark’ is an expression from a Sherlock Holmes mystery. It was an important clue that led to identifying the criminal. It seems that the killer entered and left the estate grounds one night but without the guard dog barking an alarm at the intruder’s presence as expected. From this non—event Holmes reasoned that the dog must have known the killer and that clue led to solving the case.

https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2004/08/the_dog_that_didnt_bark.html

Where are the barking journalists with their film footage of triumphant Ukrainians? Let us see what the weekend brings.


READER INTERACTIONS

(Selected original comments) 

  1.  Eric Newhill says

    9 September 2022 at 22:17

    Scott Ritter, this afternoon, has a similar perspective on the alleged UKR success that I think is spot on. It’s a classic strategic retreat (as you say). Fall back in organized fashion (not a rout) to defensible positions. Let the enemy advance and extend itself. Bring up reserves and then pound the enemy from the front and right and left flanks. Finally, encircle and wipe out surviving en/ forces.

    Yep the pro-empire Russia haters can – and will – mock away as either their paymasters or ignorance dictate they do, but time will tell. A couple of weeks tops – sooner I think. IMO, the Russians will inflict additional huge losses on UKR and reverse the meaningless gains within a week.

    Also, all this crap about “turning points”, “culmination points”, etc. is ridiculous and anyone using that language is an IO agent or a fool. Such things are only recognized retrospectively, usually not until years after a war has concluded and much analysis has been performed.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBm1n5yNVO4

    •  Exile says

      10 September 2022 at 09:23

      Kursk 1943 is the most parallel. Bet the NATOland commanders only vaguely know about Kursk

      •  Eric Newhill says

        10 September 2022 at 12:17

        Yes. One of the interesting parallels is that Guderian (the German General – a brilliant armor commander) did not want to attack. He wanted to avoid the battle and stay in a defensive posture in the region. Guderian believed the operation would be too risky, costly and perhaps result in a critical defeat. Hitler actually agreed with him from a purely military perspective. However, Hitler ultimately decided to go ahead with the battle more for reason of what we call today “optics”. In retrospect, the battle turned out to be pivotal with Germany getting the short end of the stick, of course. History repeats? Rhymes?

        •  NotRubbingSticks says

          13 September 2022 at 10:35

          “Modern commentators in NATOstan consider Kursk a German victory.”  Primarily on the basis that “The Germans lost” less numbers of tanks than the “Soviets”, one of the dangers of linear thinking where quantity is held to be primary as in Soccer, Chess, and Dominoes.

  2.  DisinfectantSunlight says

    9 September 2022 at 22:23

    The Duran duo made some interesting points of Putin and top Military brass having been away to the Far East for Vostok drills and Economic conference give bad optics of not being serious with SMO in Ukraine. They also think that Putin is more managerial and stickler with legalese and not being forceful as the Commander in Chief and War time leader. Next few days will be interesting to see how Russia will deal with this set back.

    • JGarbo says

      9 September 2022 at 22:38

      “The emperor states his goals, the generals achieve them. For the emperor to interfere, defeat is certain.” SunTzu.
      Putin has stated his goals. Period. His generals are achieving them so he can play the next, bigger game in the East.

      •  CharlieCanberra says

        10 September 2022 at 00:35

        Larry I agree. I thought that Alex was waffling in the latest video he posted. The best advice (from an ex Australian Int analyst): sit back, relax, have a nice cup of tea (or whiskey – my preference is RUM) and wait things out. As with Kherson – a “Coupla days. Beudiful” (you have to be an Australian of a certain age to understand that one).

        •  Joe says

          10 September 2022 at 18:02

          The precedent has been a small expeditionary force of Ukrainian militias and Russian troops supported by aviation blasting a numerically superior Ukrainian army trained and led by NATO….into dust. 60 thousand artillery shells per day creating that dust. Russian intelligence would not miss Ukrainian concentration needed for this attack or any other diversionary operation….and yet the concentration was not destroyed as per usual….so I suspect this operation is being allowed to play out…..I suspect this new army for all intents and purposes is actually a NATO army will over extend and concentrate for strategic bombers and missile forces. Time is on Putin’s side…. every minute is a minute closer to Western countries economically and socially collapsing

      •  palmtoptiger says

        10 September 2022 at 08:21

        I concur, had exactly the same impression from their latest video. they seem to be succumbing to FUD pressure from all the defeatist Telegram channels.

      •  DisinfectantSunlight says

        10 September 2022 at 10:55

        Thank you. I am grateful for being alive and watching the greatest leader of the world, Statesman, and consummate Judo master with keen understanding of the world history and literature, who revived Russia from the ruins for the last 20 years to bring to the Super power status again, leading the way to more Just Multipolar world. He is comparable to the best of Philosopher Kings of yesteryears IMO.  It will be a matter of time that the collective West will be bankrupt from unsustainable debt as well as moral degradation. It will be a similar situation to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Unfortunately there is no Leader to be found anywhere in the West.

        •  Jack Hudson says

          10 September 2022 at 11:55

          I would have taken a strong man like Putin over Obama any day of the week. And sadly you are correct…..there is no leader to be found anywhere in the west.

      •  ISL says

        10 September 2022 at 12:52

        Larry, I too agree – Putin’s focus is the economic war. By all reports, it was a well organized tactical retreat including deploying airborne troops to aid the retreat.

        There were signs the flow of NATO weapons to be destroyed in Ukraine was slowing down – presumably it will pick up again, further demilitarizing NATO/Europe.

        Naked Capitalism is reporting that shortages in Germany are affecting waste water treatment – so this will be a really cold and shitty winter in Europe.

        Yes, Putin’s focus is the economic war, Russian advantage thanks to piss poor (delusional) “planning”by the EU/NATO. Europe looks to degrade to living standards of the the immediate post WW2 period (now larger population and heavily urbanized) – food shortages, energy shortages, sewage pile up, industries shut down, bank runs, inflation, and NO Marshall stabilization plan. Or agree to Russian security demands which will break with the US.

        Note, a bank crash in Europe will take out many US banks causing the fed to print another few tens of trillions of dollars in a supply side inflationary environment at a time when the world is fleeing the dollar.

      •  10 to 1 says

        10 September 2022 at 20:20

        Ukrainian and western leadership think Putin and Russia want to take over Ukraine. This is wrong. Putin has stated his objective is to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine. One doesn’t need to occupy parts of Ukraine to demilitarize and denazify it. What Putin needs is for Ukrainian forces to leave population centers and dug in fortifications and expose themselves in offensives where they are more easily targeted and destroyed.

        By failing to understand this, Ukraine and western leadership are doing exactly what Russia’s leadership wants, letting Ukraine take land which isn’t heavily populated and out in the open. It makes it easier to target them. Once those forces are destroyed, Russia will give the land to the people who want to live and be at peace with Russia. Russia will help them to defend their homes and support them, not discriminate and kill them like Ukrainian forces we’re doing to the people in the Donbass before Russia intervened.


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Why Russia Invaded Ukraine

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by  Eric Zuesse

Original dateline: September 1, 2022

When peace threatened to break out in the early phase of the conflict, British PM Boris Johnson was sent by Washington to tell Zelensky that the Anglo-Americans, and NATO, wished to prolong the Ukraine war indefinitely.


The Western press alleges that Russia invaded Ukraine because of Putin, and that his motive was Russian imperialism, a desire to expand Russia’s territory. In fact, Finland and Sweden responded immediately to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by seeking membership in NATO, out of fear that “we might be next” to be invaded. However, expansion of Russia was not involved in Putin’s motivation regarding Ukraine, but the fact that Ukraine has the border that is the nearest of any bordering nation to Moscow, being only 353 miles away from Moscow, which would be around five minutes of missile-flying distance away from possibly nuking Russia’s command-center, was very much on his mind.

Even the neoconservative magazine National Interest acknowledged that Putin’s 10 February 2007 speech had basically laid out that any further expansion of NATO would cross a red line regarding Russia’s national security, and that Russia would not tolerate it. When he said there “Regarding our perception of NATO’s eastern expansion, I already mentioned the guarantees that were made and that are not being observed today,” he was referring to America’s having lied to Gorbachev that NATO would not be expanded to the east. Biden’s determination to get Ukraine covered by NATO’s Article 5 so that the U.S. would be able to post its missiles only 5-minutes flying-distance to obliterate Moscow triggered the 24 February invasion, which was an essential national-defense move for Russia (just like JFK’s response to Khrushchev’s placing Soviet missiles in Cuba in 1962 had been). The ethnic matters that Western propaganda focuses on had nothing to do with it. (However, Ukraine’s having definitively condemned and repudiated the 2015 Minsk IIAccord which both it and the Donbass separatist republics had signed and formally committed to, and which the separatists violated only when Ukraine did, was also a factor, because it meant that Ukraine was now clearly committed to invading and retaking that land. But that was only a subordinate factor. Russia’s national security was, by far, the main factor.) In Putin’s repeated warnings to Biden and to NATO, it was always the NATO-expansion matter, and especially Ukraine’s having the border which is the nearest to Moscow, that he stated as being a red line.

On 7 January 2022, Biden, essentially, crossed it. For Russia not to act, in response to that, would have meant that Putin had been bluffing ever since at least 2007. He doesn’t bluff. But he also doesn’t give advance-notice as to exactly how and when he will fulfill on his threat. I think he did it at the wrong time; he should have waited for Ukraine to invade Donbass first (as would soon have happened, but Russia invaded before it did), before he would invade Ukraine. But that error on his part (if it was an error, because his being the second instead of the first to invade would have placed the PR onus on Ukraine, instead of on Russia) had nothing to do with his being a war-criminal, such as Western media portrayed him for this invasion. It was just a matter of wrong timing for something that he was obligated to do (and, under the circumstances, that JFK would have done if he had been in Putin’s shoes). Biden drove him to do it, in any case. The aggressor was America’s President, not Russia’s. After January 7th, Russia had no other option but to use military force against Ukraine, so as to prevent it from ever joining America’s anti-Russian military alliance.

When the invasion started on 24 February 2022, CNN headlined “What does Putin want?” and opened that part of their “The conflict explained”article:

In a lengthy essay penned in July 2021, Putin referred to Russians and Ukrainians as “one people,” and suggested the West had corrupted Ukraine and yanked it out of Russia’s orbit through a “forced change of identity.”

That type of historical revisionism was on full display in Putin’s emotional and grievance-packed address to the nation on Monday announcing his decision to recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, while casting doubt on Ukraine’s own sovereignty. 

No mention was made there of how close Ukraine physically is to Moscow — that this was actually the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis on steroids.

There was nothing of such ethnic concerns in the actual demands that Putin had made to NATO on 17 December 2021, and which demands NATO formally had rejected on 7 January 2022, and which rejection by NATO had sparked Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

When The West mockingly rejected even considering to meet that demand (or any of the others, each of which was likewise entirely reasonable), which was of such vital national-security importance to the Russian people, whom Putin, as Russia’s President, represents, then Putin, and Russia, had no real alternative remaining, but to respond with military force, as they did. Biden/NATO were determined to get U.S. missiles ultimately within only 5-minutes striking-distance of the Kremlin; so, now, the only way left to prevent it would be to invade Ukraine itself. The actual aggression was on the part of the United States, and of its anti-Russian NATO military alliance. (Russia has no anti-American military alliance.) The history behind the matter is clear and indisputable, on all of that. The imperialistic power here is the hegemonically obsessed U.S. regime, not Russia (nor China, nor Iran, nor Venezuela, nor Syria, nor any of the other lands it’s determined to regime-change so as to add yet further it to its empire). It is relentless.

The Western press has numerous times been caught in lies (such as “WMD in Iraq”), and never held accountable for it, but historians are supposed to do better. Even though historians sadly often don’t, we should, and I do. I take truth seriously. The links here are to articles that link to the primary sources; so, any reader here can easily access the evidence on one’s own. It’s all there. Lies in ‘the news’ are commonplace, but they shouldn’t be spread also by historians. 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Investigative historian Eric Zuesse’s new book, AMERICA’S EMPIRE OF EVIL: Hitler’s Posthumous Victory, and Why the Social Sciences Need to Change, is about how America took over the world after World War II in order to enslave it to U.S.-and-allied billionaires. Their cartels extract the world’s wealth by control of not only their ‘news’ media but the social ‘sciences’ — duping the public.


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The Macro Picture: Gonzalo Lira on the Ukraine conflict’s broader contours and implications for all sides

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Gonxalo Lira


6 Sep, 2022
The controversial commentator dissects the depths of the West's mistakes in its strategy toward Russia, driven by non-negotiable russophobia, but the Empire's arrogance is blinding them to the inevitable consequences. The Western leaders have invested their political and economic future in their war against Russia, much as Zelensky has invested his last military chips in Kherson, but the regime change they dreamed of in Moscow may be coming much sooner to their own capitals.

Streamed live on Aug 9, 2022

 


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