Russia! This is part 1, half of a long article about Russians. I hope it explains some things I learned in history, in Slavic studies and in Russia.
Alexander Yaroslavich Nevsky[1] 13 May 1221[2] – 14 November 1263), served as Prince of Novgorod (1236–40, 1241–56 and 1258–1259), Grand Prince of Kiev (1236–52) and Grand Prince of Vladimir (1252–63) during some of the most difficult times in Kievan Rus' history. He rose to legendary status on account of his military victories over German and Swedish invaders. (Still from iconic film Alexander Nevsky, 1938, which immortalised his victory over Catholic German and Danish knights (Livonian order) and Estonian infantry on Lake Peipus, on the Russo-Estonian frontier.)
THE RUSSIANS
Native land of enduring patience,
The land of the Russian people!
(Fyodor Tiutchev,(1803-1873), Romantic poet, second to Pushkin)
All things Russian have always seemed exotic, strange and incomprehensible to Westerners. Russians themselves have long debated the question as to who they are: Westerners or Asians? Or, are they something else? In any case, as reflected in current Russian foreign policy, the history of Russia is also inextricably bound up with Eurasia, the territory between Europe and Asia. Though of primary importance to Russia, the borders with Europe have always been far more rigid than those open borders with Asia itself. Asia for Russia remains an open space. That historical reality is of fundamental significance today in the dispute over Ukraine as well as in Russia’s recent about-face and its primary relations with Asia and the creation of an exchange currency that is no longer Western.
In the same light, again today, Western peoples, in general, are perplexed by the Russia-Ukraine question. What does it mean? Just who are these “ethnic Russians” living in Ukraine anyway? If they don’t like it there, shouldn’t they move to Russia?
Mike Whitney produced an excellent interview with Russian President Putin’s advisor and friend, Sergei Glaziev (see appendix), under the title of “Understanding Ukraine in 15 minutes”. Well, that title appears to me as a journalistic exaggeration for the answers to these questions are complex and reach far back into the history of the Slavic peoples. Here I have sketched out some of the related problematics, offered a light historical background to the Slavic question, and taken a closer look at just who these Russians and Ukrainians really are.
The short answer is that they do not know themselves who they are. Russians wonder if Russia is an European country or whether she is not an extra-European country, westernized artificially and hastily by an elite of Peter the Great and to the detriment of her true values. Russian intellectuals too have long been puzzled by the problem. “Westernizers” in Russia saw the salvation of their country in a rapid assimilation of western culture; the so-called “Slavophiles” believed Russia could only be true to herself by maintaining and strengthening all that separated her from the West, by remaining loyal to her past values, and the development of a culture in opposition to the culture of the West. The struggle has gone on for eons, marked and distinguished by the Great Russian Revolution.
Today’s disputed country of Ukraine lies between Russia to its East and Poland to its West. One should keep in mind that Russians and Ukrainians, together with the Byelorussians of Byelorus just north of Ukraine, are historically one people, each however with its linguistic and cultural differences. For over three millennia these peoples, the Slavs, have inhabited parts of the enormous territory now known as Russia extending from the Black Sea eastwards across two continents nearly to Alaska, and from the North Pole to Persia in the South, an area bigger than the entire North American continent and one-sixth of the world’s land surface. Those peoples are known by the linguistic name of East Slavs. (The West Slavs are chiefly Poles and Czechs, the South Slavs Serbs, Croatians and Bulgarians).
Prince Alexander Nevsky (r) and his brother stand vigil the night before the great battle on the ice. against the Teutonic knights (Still from Alexander Nevsky, 1938).
However, as has been said, “geography may set the stage for history; men make history.” (Nicholas Riasanovsky, A History of Russia.) And what men made Russia’s history! Giants of men. Throughout the ages and across these great lands, hundreds of non-Slavic nationalities and cultures, European and Asian, Mongol and Persian, ancient Sumerians and the Iranian-speaking Asiatic Scythians from Central Asia have intermingled. Two of the most international rail stations in the world are Moscow’s Yaroslavsky and Kazansky stations serving hundreds of thousands of peoples from Europe to Asia.
Who are the Russians? you still ask. Telling, the answer of the great Russian poet, Alexander Blok, who wrote: “Yes, we are Scythians. Yes, we are Asiatics. With slanting and greedy eyes.”
My close friend, a Russian painter and originally an ethnic Russian from Kkarkov in today’s Ukraine, ( I find it difficult to write the Ukrainian Kharkiv) now for forty years in New York, has those slanting eyes, as do his two children, and to a minor degree, his grandchildren. Scythians, Russians, Ukrainians, Europeans, Americans? As much as my Russian-speaking friend tries to speak Ukrainian just to show off, I who do not know Ukrainian as such understand him perfectly. It’s like hearing English with a thick French accent.
Yet Russia shows that continuity is the real stuff of history. Events like the arrival of Christianity in Russia in the 9th century, the Mongol domination over Russian lands from the early 13th century to the late 15th, the Napoleonic invasion in 1812 and the burning of Moscow, World War I and II, and the Russian Revolution each brought about great change at enormous loss in Russian lives.
In the light of these confusing and historically tremendous occurrences, the thinking person is made aware that it is the relationship of the present with the past that makes a given present meaningful. Without continuity in the histories of Europe, in Russia, China, and also in America, each new generation would have to start over again and again, as, say, in a typical story invented by Jorge Borges. Myths, anecdotes and stories about the Mongol (Tatar) domination abound in Russian literature. The period extending from the Tatar invasion to the unification of Russia by the Moscow ruler Ivan III appears like a black hole in Russian history that historian D.S. Mirsky labels Russia’s “Dark Ages”. The saying ‘Scratch a Russian and find Tatar’ is valid, if only in those slanting eyes of my dear friend.
Here we are most interested in the so-called East Slavs, that is, those peoples who remained in their original territories north of the Black Sea after the Slavs split into three groups in the mid First millennium A.D., some moving south, others more westwards. The East Slavs speak the Eastern variety of the common Slavic. Russian speakers, the Great Russians, have always dominated the East Slavs. Their descendants remain today among those “ethnic Russians” in southeast Ukraine, in Crimea, the country of Moldova and the Transdnestr Republic, whom their brothers in Kiev, seduced by promises of gold from the West, want to expel or exterminate. And their language and culture are Russian.
KIEVAN RUSSIA
It is an irony of history that the city of Kiev, today’s Ukrainian capital situated west of a more Asian Russia, was the first Russian state. Kiev, the city where the USA first ruthlessly overturned Ukraine’s legally elected Russian-friendly government and ignorantly installed a puppet government to rule over a phony state with the phony goal of becoming part of the European Union, A phony and impossible state in any case because Ukraine for Russia is like Texas or Midwestern states are to the United States. Russia would never surrender it totally to the West. Enough today for Moscow to turn off the oil spigots to re-establish the order the Slavs have always needed.
Alexander (l) and a Teuton knight take each other's measure (Alexander Nevsky, 1938). Stalin commissioned the film from S. Eisenstein as a morale builder in anticipation of a Nazi attack, which did materialise in 1941.
Mystery surrounds the establishment of the Kievan state. Its origins are connected with a tribe of people called “Rus”, from which the word Russian derives. Some historians claim the quarrelling Slavs called in Varangians (Swedes) to come and rule over their lands and create order out of chaos. According to many historians the Rus were one of those Varangian tribes; other theories link the Rus to Slavic tribes or people in northern lands or even in the south of Crimea and surrounding territories. Although the name Rus was previously unknown in the West, the name stuck. Rus became identified with the Kievan East Slavic-speaking state. In any case, the Rus formed a large group among them, most certainly Slavic, spoke a language that soon became Russian and established themselves from Kiev northwards to the heart of traditional Russian lands—like Novgorod, Vologda, Vladimir-Suzdal. And finally Moscow—which because of the city’s central position and because its great river, the Moskva, was a principle trade route—became the center of the future Russian empire.
I try not to stray from the subject of who these modern day Russians are but this minor and limited incursion into the complex story of the origins of Slavs and their state is necessary in order to know what we are talking about. Suffice it to say here that the Kievan state has the place in Russian history as does, say, the thirteen original colonies in the formation of the USA. An important and influential world capital in those times appears today as a second-class, boring puppet city-state controlled by a failing and waning US world power, a power with no concept of the significance of history.
As Kievan Russia—the future Russia itself—developed and expanded its borders ever farther eastwards, and became an important state, a new element was introduced into its culture: Christianity. By the early eleventh century, Kiev had become a new Christian civilization, a civilization that added “literary and artistic attainment to the political power and high economic development characteristic of the age.” (Riasanovsky)
Kiev’s rulers over pagan Russians first studied the major religions and according to legend decided against Islam—it forbade alcohol—because “drink is the joy of the Russian”—and against Judaism because it reflected beliefs of a defeated people without a state. Kievan Rus chose to become the Eastern version of Christendom, opening Russia to Byzantine culture and the Christian world at large, thus early on belying its reputation of a closed civilization. However, lest one forget, Christianity came to Russia from Byzantium, not from Rome. Since the break between the two churches the controversy between Roman Catholicism and Russian Orthodoxy remains today.
During the late Soviet period I, a journalist, had the good fortune to speak with Alexis II, the Metropolitan of the Russian Orthodox Church, at a historic meeting of eleven heads of the various Eastern churches held in Istanbul. To my question about attempts to mend the millennium-old separation of the Eastern and Western churches and of relations with the Vatican, Alexis said clearly: “We are after all Russians.”
With that background fixed in mind, we leap over centuries of wars and pestilence, the Tatar invasion, serfdom, to the last stages of Tsardom. Prior to the Russian Revolution, the ex-serfs were still linked in an economic vise to the land and large property owners from which they had been officially emancipated. While their desire for their own property plots drove the serfs, the Revolution itself opposed the very idea in the name of collectivization. Collectivization in agriculture was not one of the successes of the new Socialist state because the serfs of this traditionally agricultural land, resisted and wanted their own private plots of land. As a result of collectivization in agriculture, the number of families on the land diminished from 26,000,000 to 21,000,000 which meant that 5,000,000 abandoned the land, (Riasanovsky), some moving to urban areas, others to the Far East or elsewhere. In any case, the price was too high and was never really recovered, contrary to Socialist theory and expectations.
SOVIET KIEV
After centuries of silence, Kiev, as the capital city of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, became an agricultural giant and regained some small part of its former luster. The Donbass (the Donetz-Basin) in East Ukraine became a major Soviet industrial center. Populated by “ethnic Russians”, it is today the region of the “rebels”, the “terrorists” in American political lingo, the Russian-Ukrainians who have separated from the Kiev puppet state and without which Kiev cannot survive economically.
Though Kiev was one of Soviet Russia’s most important cities, it was already sinking into provincialism. The second rate glory of THE Ukraine, the “bread basket” of former Soviet Russia, ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Especially since the Russian Revolution, the Ukraine has been one thing, Kiev another.
History itself opposes the dream of newfound Kievan glory instigated by the USA. That ahistorical dream is destined to boomerang against the rest of Europe itself. For Russia is present … ever present.
Talk about a battle between East and West for Ukraine’s soul is simply linguistic terminology, and at its worst political propaganda. An impossible quandary. Ukraine (the word means “borderlands”- like, say, New Mexico or Southern California in the USA. Ukraine is a geographical term. As such it has no soul. Only a handful of maverick, sold-out Ukrainians (Borderland Russians or Little Russians as they have long been called) can sell their souls. But not Ukraine itself which would be a contradiction of terms. As discussed above, Ukraine IS Russia. Its people are the original Russians. They are basically the same. Many Great Russians to the East do not recognize this as a historical-geographical-demographical reality. Borderlands have no fixed borders. In that sense it is farcical to even speak of Ukraine’s eastern borders. American imperialistic-military planners as well as West Europeans, do not, can not grasp the real Ukrainian story. How can Americans know when they do not even know exactly where Ukraine is and who its people are? Ukraine’s Nazis and Fascists who collaborated with the German Nazi invaders in WWII do not, can not reflect the real Ukraine.
RUSSIA
Moscow responds to Western economic sanctions with counter-sanctions that already loom dramatic for economies of West Europe, especially the major economies of Germany, France, and Italy. Germany’s industrial exports to Russia amount to 36 billion Euros; and over 400,000 German workers are employed in companies exporting to Russia. The sanctions have cost Italy over $1 billion in lost exports, especially agricultural producers whose crops are already rotting in the fields. Big Italian energy companies, with major investments in Russia, face even bigger losses. With the sanctions Italy’s sick economy has lost any chance for recovery. Spanish farmers stand to lose 158 million Euros from the sanctions against their fresh fruit and nuts, or 22% of their total exports to non-EU countries; Greek farmers will lose 107 million Euros. Spanish meat exporters will lose 111 million Euros.
The West cuts industrial exports to Russia, Russia answers: no more Western automobiles to Russia; we’ll use our own; we’ll also eat our own cheese and drink our own beer. And they will. (I’ve drunk a lot of Russian beer and eaten a lot of Russian cheese and was perfectly satisfied.)
The question ordinary Europeans ask is: Why does Europe not rebel against America’s diktat? And that, dear readers, is a key question. It is true that Europe is in decline and that the future is Asia and elsewhere. Yet Europe is still Europe, the cultural home of many of us, and a continent-market of 450,000,000 persons, who export to and import from Russia. So what Europe does in this circumstance is not secondary.
At the same time many Russians want to be part—even if peripheral—of Europe. Even the old de Gaulle dream of a Europe extending from the Atlantic Ocean to Russia’s Ural Mountains and on to Vladivostok is no longer valid; a renaissance of the European idea and resumption of normal Russo-Europe relations has more economic-cultural-demographic sense than a Europe deprived of Russia and hanging onto America’s coattails.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Gaither Stewart regularly writes at the intersection of history, fiction, and his own considerable experience as both writer and citizen of the world. This brings a poignancy to his writing, mixed with the very human struggles of self and relationship that frequently occur at historical crucibles such as WWII, the cold war, western imperialism in Mexico and South America or the contemporary military chess moves - as in his Europa Trilogy: The Trojan Spy, Lily Pad Roll, and Time of Exile. In Signs of the Time, the reader takes a journey with ordinary people who are each extraordinary in their own way. We see the world through their eyes. This is the gift of Stewart’s art and is amply demonstrated in his fine collection of short stories. Stewart is a former associate editor of The Greanville Post.
A P P E N D I X
Interview with Sergei Glaziev, advisor and friend of President Putin
Facilitated by The Saker
Aug 19, 2014
Interview with Sergei Glaziev (MUST SEE!)
Thanks to the superb work of the Russian Team, it is my huge pleasure to present you with one of the most interesting interviews about the war in the Ukraine and the global struggle for the future of the planet and the views of one of the best informed men in Russia: Sergei Glaziev.
Glaziev is an advisor to President Putin and a close friend. I personally believe that the western media is either wrong or deliberately lying when then say that Dugin is Putin's ideological mentor. I am not sure that Putin has - or needs - any kind of mentor, but over the years I have found that Glaziev seems to say out loud what Putin does not, but seems to be acting on.
Glaziev, who was born in the Ukraine and who is an economist himself, has a superb understanding of the behind-the-scenes power plays in the Ukraine and in Russia. This man really *knows* what is going on. Furthermore, he is one of the leading "Eurasian Sovereignists" and he is therefore absolutely hated by the pro-US circles in Russia. He is equally hated in the USA who put him on their recent sanctions list for no other reason than the fact that they don't like what he has to say.
I urge everybody to listen to this 15min interview which is one of the most interesting ones I have ever had the pleasure to post here.
Enjoy!
The Saker
(please turn on the subtitles by pressing on the 'cc' button)
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
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Just before the G7 leaders met at Elmau Castle in Bavaria, last week, their counterparts from the five BRICS countries held an online summit under the Chinese Presidency. Russia had been discussed as a threat at the G7 gathering but was a key participant in the latter.
Long gone are the days when Moscow could straddle the divide between the West and the non-West. Following the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the G8 reverted to its previous G7 format; in the wake of the Russian military action in Ukraine last February, Russian-Western confrontation degenerated into a full-blown “Hybrid War,” complete with an actual confrontation – if so far a proxy one.
Having tried, after the end of the Cold War, to become part of the new West, and having failed at that endeavor, Russia is now focusing on developing its ties with Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America.
This is both a difficult and a necessary task, for a number of reasons. First, there is a powerful inertia from the past. At least since the days of Peter the Great, Russian elites have looked westward, adopting western ways of appearance and behavior (while remaining distinctly Russian beneath the garb and manners); adapting western institutions (even if often only superficially); borrowing western patterns of thinking (while creatively developing them, as with Marxism); seeking to become a great European power; then, in Soviet days, a global superpower; and, more recently, a key component of a greater Europe from Lisbon to Vladivostok.
This is a pathway hard to wean off from. Yet, now, for the first time ever, Russia is facing a united West, from North America, the European Union, and Britain, to Japan and Australia. What’s more, there are no allies in the West that Moscow can turn to – even notionally neutral states such as Finland, Sweden, Austria, and Switzerland, have all ditched their neutrality. Russia’s political rupture with the West is thus complete, and any new norm of relations between them can only emerge as a result of the “Hybrid War,“ which will take years, if not decades, to fight out.
Second, Moscow’s economic relations have been largely built with the West. Historically, Russia has been a resource for Western European industry; a breadbasket of the continent; and a major importer of industrial products and technology. Until recently, Russia’s trade with the European Union alone accounted for more than half of Russia’s foreign commerce, and Germany was the lead exporter of machinery and technology to Russia. Since the early 1970s, oil and gas pipelines from Russia to Western Europe have formed the backbone of economic ties and provided for general stability on the continent, even in the dangerous decades of the Cold War and in the turbulent times of the disintegration of the Soviet Union itself. This, too, is on the way out, however.
The severe sanctions imposed on Russia by the US, EU and the UK will not be lifted even when the actual fighting in Ukraine stops, and the painful experience of foreign exchange and asset seizures will leave a huge imprint on any future Russian approach to economic ties with the West.
Third, in cultural terms, Russians have traditionally identified themselves with the rest of Europe. Christianity; the legacies of Ancient Greece and Rome; the ideas of French Enlightenment and German philosophy; European literature and the arts, music, and dance – all of this helped shape and form Russia’s own culture, giving it a powerful stimulus for self-development. Despite the recent political rupture and the geo-economic shift, the foundations of Russian culture remain definitely European.
However, a number of elements of today’s cultural scene in the West, particularly the dominant cult of individual self-expression, runaway liberalism that is turning increasingly oppressive, the erosion of family values and the proliferation of genders, jars with the more traditional cultural code of the majority of the Russian population.
That said, the obvious necessity for Russia to now look beyond the West means it can probably overcome the historical inertia, the legacy of previous geo-economic priorities, and cultural affinities. With the West shunning Russia, trying to isolate and sometimes “cancel” it, Moscow has no choice but to kick its old habits and reach out to the wider world beyond Western Europe and North America. In fact, this is something that successive Russian leaders vowed to do repeatedly, even when relations with the West were much less adversarial, but the Europe-oriented mindset, the apparent ease of trading resources for Western goods and technologies, and the ambition to be accepted into Western elite circles prevented that intention from turning into reality.
It has been noted, however, that people start doing the right thing only when there are no other options. And certainly, capitulating to the West is no option for Russia, at this point. Things have gone too far.
Beyond the necessity of an overhaul of Russia’s foreign relations there are real opportunities to pursue. Since the end of the Cold War, the leading countries of Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America have risen spectacularly in all respects, from economically and politically to technologically and militarily.
Even before the outbreak of the “Hybrid War,” China had overtaken Germany not only as Russia’s principal trading partner, but also as the leading exporter of machinery and equipment to Russia. India, a traditional importer of Soviet and Russian weapons, is now emerging as a major technology partner for Moscow. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are Russia’s principal partners in regulating oil output in the OPEC+ format. Turkey and Iran are major independent players in a key strategic region. The fact that the vast majority of non-Western countries refused to condemn Russia for what it is doing in Ukraine – many of them despite strong US pressure – is most encouraging for Moscow. In the sense that those who are not against us could be considered to be with us.
From Indonesia to Brazil, and from Argentina to South Africa, there are many dynamic and ambitious countries that Moscow is seeking to engage.
To be able to do that, Russia’s foreign policy needs to come up with an appropriate strategy. Above all, it needs to give relations with non-Western countries priority over the de facto firmly frozen ties with the West. Being an ambassador to Indonesia should be more prestigious than an ambassadorship in Rome, and a post in Tashkent should be viewed as more important than one in Vienna.
There needs to be an audit of potential economic and other opportunities for Russia in the BRICS countries, and a plan to work on them. Apart from economics, student exchange programs should be expanded, and Russian tourism encouraged to move east, and south. The Russian media would be right to increase coverage of developments in the key non-Western nations, educating the Russian elite and the broader public about the economic realities, politics, and culture of those nations.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Dmitri Vitalyevich Trenin is a member of Russia’s Foreign and Defence Policy Council. He was the director of the Carnegie Moscow Center, a Russian think tank. A former colonel of Russian military intelligence, Trenin served for 21 years in the Soviet Army and Russian Ground Forces, before joining Carnegie in 1994. Trenin is a member of the Russian International Affairs Council.
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Recall: We have no idea what the Russian end-point is, except for this part of the SMO, demilitarization and denazification of the two Donbass Republics.
The blogger gpovanman summarizes the last week as follows:
The last few days have seen no real breakthroughs in the Ukrainian conflict, yet with Russia not planning that there would be, this comes as no surprise. There are however enough other matters to give us an idea of what the future may bring. https://gpovanman.wordpress.com/2022/06/13/a-week-in-view/
In the broader environment, just about everyone in the EU and in the US, and in NATO is trying to walk backward with another change of narrative. So, (1), old Kissinger was dusted off again, and he pontificates: “The question will now be how to end that war. At its end a place has to be found for Ukraine and a place has to be found for Russia – if we don’t want Russia to become an outpost of China in Europe.”
(Did I say that China is heating up? And that the warmongers are now taking a new look at China?. It is inconceivable for this western axis of evil and empire of lies, that we can live without a big war because that will lead to faster western implosion. Take a look at the address by General Wei Fenghe, State Councilor; Minister of National Defense, China. He does not mince words and says clearly that China will fight http://thesaker.is/iiss-shangri-la-dialogue-2022-chinas-vision-for-regional-order/).
(2) Some talking head with the memorable name of Sikorsky, a member of the EU and a previous Polish Defense Minister, is trying to talk up the possibility that the west could supply the Ukraine with nuclear weapons to defeat Russia. But the talk of a glorious victory of the Ukraine is diminishing.
(3) Stoltenberg from NATO supplies us with this comment, but it is all up to the Ukraine he says. (Remember the notes from previous sitreps that the Ukraine is now fast becoming an orphan. To add to that, everyone is sick and tired of Zelenski.)
“Peace is possible,” says Stoltenberg. “The only question is what price are you willing to pay for peace? How much territory, how much independence, how much sovereignty…are you willing to sacrifice for peace?”
The news for these august gentlemen is simple. You have sugar spun cotton candy in your heads. You cannot appease Russia with some territory that they already have, or will take. Its not yours to give. Russia will decide exactly what happens to the Ukraine, how, and when. The Great WalkBack will make no difference to Russia’s decisions here as the core issue is a restructuring of the complete European security structural apparatus, in such a way that Russia is not threatened. The next steps from Russia will give us more insight into how they will accomplish this.
The Russian Foreign office released this card for Russia day yesterday.
It says “we asked them nicely not to expand eastward” next to headware of the Teutonic Knights, Poles, Napoleon and the Germans. And an empty box to fill in with the "Current Thing." (NATO)
Berletic continues: “IF” Ukraine’s conflict was really as important as its engineers and sponsors claim, this wouldn’t be the case. The West only poses as having a moral imperative, propped up with PR stunts. Russia actually has one – and having a moral imperative is one of the KEY prerequisites of winning any conflict.
While the Great WalkBack, which is just another pretext and attempt to change the narrative, is gaining steam, Russian forces are gaining city by city, area by area, deliberately, resolutely, not wavering and now moving faster. The last estimate that I am aware of, is that Lugansk is 95% cleared, whereas in the Donbass Republic there still is some work to do with a 50% of the area still under battle or planned to be under battle.
Yet, we see more and more comments that the front has collapsed, that the Ukrainian forces hang their heads on their chinstraps and that the only reason for the continuance of battle is that most of the Ukrainian forces find it impossible to conceive of the concept of laying down their arms.
This is exactly why the Military Summary Channel is still a very good source because he does not pretend that what is left of the defeated Ukrainian forces, cannot yet fight.
Kadyrov’s forces are being increased if you pay attention to his channel. https://t.me/RKadyrov_95 As the Ukrainian forces get decimated, we know their tactic is to move into schools and other civilian areas and literally use civilians as fire screens. To clear these areas is very fine work for Kadyrov and his men and they excel at it.
The detail as of the end of the 12th day of June:
Enjoy your discussion as we slowly move from this phase of active SMO to the next with not even a hint from Russia as to what it will be.
Seeing as the USA is still buying Russian oil, this latest “revelation” suggests the Imperial attitude towards all the Europeans is “Sanctions for thee, but not for me”. Clearly shows how much “concern” the US has for European energy independence (or rather they’ve already decided that Europe will be a nice little earner for all that “spare” US Natural Gas.)
The West-NATO knows that these French-made CAESAR 8×8 155mm self-propelled howitzers will be used to bomb residential areas and kill civilians in eastern Ukraine. The Nazis know that the few Russian troops in Donetsk are just there to secure the city. They are doing it because they want to do genocide. With the support of the West-NATO.
They have been taught a new tactic by their handles and curators – shoot and scoot. Makes them difficult to pin point for return strike. These howitzers supplied to them by the West, few of which they have managed to slip thru, are a lot more mobile it seems. They are now using that fleeting advantage to kill more Donbass civilians. It is something that knows it’s going to die and desperately tries to inflict as much destruction as it can before it’s finished off for good. I have no pity for the numbers of ukies killed so far – they have chosen this path and the price to pay for their atrocities will be excruciating.
“While the Great WalkBack, which is just another pretext and attempt to change the narrative, is gaining steam, Russian forces are gaining city by city, area by area, deliberately, resolutely, not wavering and now moving faster. The last estimate that I am aware of, is that Lugansk is 95% cleared, whereas in the Donbass Republic there still is some work to do with a 50% of the area still under battle or planned to be under battle.
Yet, we see more and more comments that the front has collapsed, that the Ukrainian forces hang their heads on their chinstraps and that the only reason for the continuance of battle is that most of the Ukrainian forces find it impossible to conceive of the concept of laying down their arms.”
Honestly I cannot really see where the significant gains are. I keep hearing about morale collapse and Ukrainians getting decimated, however, at this stage, it does not translate into massive territorial gains. 95% of LPR was liberated already two months ago, and DPR has barely budged. No signs of significant advances down south, at Avdiivka or Gulyai Pole.
This does not mean it will not happen as indeed they may be close to snapping. An important point nonetheless : from what I can vaguely understand, the strength of the Ukrainians lies in their artillery, which still functions quite well, and in their ability at sabotage and attacking supply lines. Unless they really are short on ammo, I’m guessing the Russians will continue advancing slowly to avoid ambushes or running into fire bags.
So as to the great Donbass campaign : I’ll believe it when it’s done.
Russia will take Kiev too, in time. Kiev is a Hero city, so cannot be left to the US/NATO neo-Nazis.
Summer is now on in Europe, winter is just across the corner. Heating season starts in about 4-5 months. There’s a massive lack of coal in Poland, a coal-producing country, by the way. Germany is dodging supplying armament to Ukraine. France will have a hung parliament. The rest of the NATO is small fish, but they too need to heat their homes.
There is a lack of fertilizers in Europe, if any are left they are pretty expensive. So, a food shortage, or very expensive food is imminent. In all the liberated areas in former Ukraine, fuel will be cheaper than in any unfriendly country. Harvest will be good too.
There’s going to be lot of unhappiness in the unfriendly countries. There’s also going to be increasing anger toward to refugees from the former Ukraine. This anger is slowly seen in many cities the unfriendly countries in Europe.
Russia is not in a hurry. Why should it be? It is self-sufficient and has very loyal citizens. Defeating the US/UK makes them happy. They are fighting a war against the Nazis, just like their granddads did.
I don’t see how Russia lets Nazis have existence in U in the end, whether it’s left as just the Western part, or a rump state after historically claimed territory taken by neighbors. Nor how to get them all to go away. I think too, Russia doesn’t quit until the NATO bordering nations banish NATO bases, or at least missiles, from their land.
Military Summary argues convincingly that, although Russia could easily put more soldiers into Ukraine, that would not be advantageous. The roads and railways cannot take very high loads, and Russia already has a well-trained and well-equipped army in eastern Ukraine. Moreover, contrary to what many instinctively assumed, Russia is in no hurry.
On the other hand, I could easily imagine a fresh Russian army of another 100,000 – or perhaps just 50,000 – slipping in easily down the line of the Dnieper, say, to capture Dnepropetrovsk and the whole area around there. Then the semi-open cauldrons in Donbass would be academic, as there could be no flow of supplies or reinforcements from the West.
Still, the Russians have a good sense of balance and no doubt they know exactly what they are doing.
It also occurs to me that they may be deliberately drawing out the war as long as possible, squeezing the Ukrainians to encourage them to squawk for help – and thus inducing NATO to send more and more of its own weapons and ammunition into the bottomless pit of destruction. The longer it goes on, the weaker NATO will become.
Yet another angle: as stocks dwindle and the Ukrainian appeals become ever more agonised, NATO is tempted to send ever more modern and top-end weapons and equipment. Which the Russians then capture and study. Russian weapons are less likely to be captured, as they are generally advancing.
On the other hand, I could easily imagine a fresh Russian army of another 100,000 – or perhaps just 50,000 – slipping in easily down the line of the Dnieper, say, to capture Dnepropetrovsk and the whole area around there.
Something we tend to forget, is the size of the place. The Ukraine is about the size of Texas, or France. More like France, in that most of it is productive and populated. And the purpose of this military operation is not conquest and subjugation, but it is to take the Ukraine intact, to return it to its pre-2013 state or better. Better, really, because it was obviously vulnerable in 2013. It will take some time to counteract 8 years of occupation.
Because I live in Texas, I sort-of have a feel for how big it is, and how remarkably fast the Russian operation is progressing. Driving at 100 Kph on a smooth dry road, it is a very long day’s drive from El Paso to Houston. And military operations do not move at 100 Kph.
Bottom line, I don’t expect to hear about Dniepropetrovsk or Kiev until late summer or fall, at the very soonest. Best case would be for the Nazis to throw in the towel now and abscond en masse to Poland…
Editor's Note: Texas is indeed very big, slightly larger than Ukraine infact. But in North America other states and jurisdictions are much bigger. Alaska, for example is almost 4 times the size of Texas. And Canada's Quebec province is 3 times the size of Texas.
it seems to me that nobody is asking what was the West/Ukraine plan. they thought that they could lure Russia into a proxy war on territory held by LDNR. this would leave the whole of Ukraine free to mount air and military superiority as it rolled over LDNR and then Crimea. They couldn’t imagine that Russia would attack Ukraine itself. They were totally blindsided and have no answer. A Russian acquaintance gave me the answer to the question ‘how will it end?’ -when Patriarch Kirill reconsecrates the Hagia Sofia.
The US and its NATO proxy are driven by the military-industrial complex, which also controls the intelligence services, which in turn control the media.
So far things are going very well for the MIC. The consumption rate of military gear is astronomical, old gear (that must be replaced) is being dumped, and military budgets across Europe are soaring (and will largely be spent on US weapons). As to the political fallout, well, that falls on the politicians the MIC owns. If they get ejected the MIC will just buy more.
The $40 billion in aid to Ukraine is a loan (lend lease) that Ukraine must pay back (LOL). 90% of it went to US arms manufacturers, the Pentagon, and NATO countries to buy US weapons.
Aside from Russia changing the world order, things are going quite well for the MIC. It is clear that their plan is to prolong and extend this war, even by expansion into Europe, to continue generating profits. Also the ramping up of provocations in with China and the talk of an eastern NATO.
When your only tool is a gun, every problem is a target. This is their business model.
Yes, I remember back during one of the winter olympics. For such a tiny population, the Finns field an enormous hockey team. The Finnish ambassador was asked, what does their fan cheer mean. She shouted it out loud. The interviewer shrank back, pressed his chair away. Then she said something like, “Chop them up into little pieces!”. As the interviewer recovered his chair, she retracted, “We don’t really mean that, anymore. It’s an old battle-cry.”
So, yes. There is Vyborg. There is Russia purchased Finland from Sweden. Then, later, condescended to grant them, most of them, freedom. There is Karelia.
So… yes, I am a great admirer of the Finns. Who call themselves, Suomi! Who react too quickly from past resentments, and present thoughtlessness. Who recovers quickly realistically. Who have their share of historical and diplomatic ignorance, and heedless wokeness, and fake-NGOs. But I hope, enough sense to step back from the Nato abyss.
My first girlfriend was Finnish. Total erotic/emotic….i met many Finns later in business circles. All showed the typical character of being extremely stubborn. Their good education system makes them arrogant and have a strong sense of self-belief…so much so, that when they work in telecoms, they boast of their prowess but dont deliver any of the expected quality….so much so that telecom dealers informed me that it was extremely frustrating for them to carry Finnish made articles and they would much prefer not to do so… The public clamoured for the Finnish products mainly due to the advertising but when the goods were finally delivered after long delays, they were faulty on arrival and all the European dealers i visited, experienced major losses as they had no support from the Finns…They all too easily get into fights and most carry hunting knives for the purpose…They are superb rally drivers… not surprising with the vast space they have, to practice these skills…They hold business meetings in Saunas, which can be fun when there is female company… Russia should not trust the Finns…best to keep a very close watch…
@amarymth Yes, that is a possibility, but Finland will “never” regain Russian trust! Both Finland and Sweden have shown their true characters, and there is no way president Putin may entertain with them the special relationship he had before, even if “pragmatism” may prevail at the end of the day.
It’s a joke to listen to the Stoltenberg’s latest comments that a renowned terrorist organization such as NATO is not interested in spreading the conflict. So encouraging Sweden and Russia’s direct neighbor in Finland to join the alliance is not an aggressive measure in their usual ignorant and dismissive style.
“Peace in Ukraine is possible. The question is what will be its price. How much territory, freedom and democracy we are willing to pay for this world. NATO intends to help Ukraine to give it the strongest position at the negotiating table with Russia, which should end the hostilities.”
Stoltenberg added that the NATO military does not participate in hostilities, and the Alliance itself opposes the spread of the conflict outside the country.
Russia should extend the SMO until the capture Stoltenberg, Von der Leyen, and Borrell and change both the EU’s and NATO’s extremely poor attitude.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to perform admirably.
Bear in mind that the operational objective is, IMO, not the occupation of territory. Rather, it is to force the capitulation of the Ukrainian military. Once that point is reached territory will be occupied rapidly.
Minimizing Russian casualties and preventing, as much as possible, harm to civilians is a vital priority. Thus the Ukrainian military must be broken in place.
Concerning reports of Russia bringing T-62 MBT’s out of storage due to equipment losses. I have seen no credible evidence of this. First, Russia isn’t losing that much equipment. Second, I don’t think Russia is making particularly heavy use of Main Battle Tanks (MBT) at this point in the operation.
⚡️ From the very beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, military experts undertook to analyze the tactics and further strategy of the RF Armed Forces. The guesses turned out to be wrong due to the dynamic development of events and the fact that our army tried different models of warfare. Today it is already possible to conduct an intermediate analysis of the situation that is developing within the framework of the NWO. In my estimation, everything is going as it should.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have completely switched to the tactics of mobile assault groups and complex fire engagement, shifting the focus from high speed of advance to minimizing losses while maintaining damage to the enemy.
Now an approximate algorithm of actions looks like this: Ukrainian positions are opened by UAVs and reconnaissance groups, then artillery and aircraft hit at the identified objects, after critical damage to the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, assault groups consisting of several tanks, other armored vehicles and infantry platoons are advanced in the direction of key objects. Point support is provided by artillery forces and mortars. If Ukraine tries to counterattack, or the offensive of our troops is slowed down, and the enemy’s points are again “polished” by artillery and fighters. Such tactics are systematically squeezing the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of cities, villages and fortified areas.
❗️In general, the Russian troops adopted a strategy to deplete the enemy’s resources. After the final retirement of the combat-ready backbone of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as the deprivation of the Ukrainian troops of the minimum number of heavy weapons, repair and fuel and lubricant resources, things will go faster.
At the moment, the actions of Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups have been almost completely neutralized. First of all, due to the counter-ambush actions of our special forces. In addition, extensive work is being carried out in the rear of the RF Armed Forces to identify and capture / destroy Ukrainian DRGs. Additionally, there is a checkpoint system.
As for the losses of Ukraine as a whole. With a change in tactics, the effectiveness of the liquidation of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine increased. On average, it is 300-500 people per day. The total amount of Ukrainian combat losses today is, in my opinion, up to 100,000 people. Of these, approximately 25-30 thousand were killed and up to 70 thousand were wounded and surrendered. To these 100 thousand one can add several tens of thousands more deserters.
Russian long-range aviation and the Navy continue to regularly strike with long-range cruise missiles at enemy military targets, including deep in the rear. The calculation of Kyiv and the Western side that the Russian Armed Forces would run out of missiles did not materialize – our military industry provides a sufficient rate of production of these products.
Speaking of aviation, our Air Force has now achieved operational air supremacy. It eliminates the possibility for any effective actions of Ukrainian aviation over the territories controlled by the Russian Federation, and also allows Russian pilots to operate effectively. At the same time, pockets of Ukrainian air defense remain, creating a high danger for our aircraft. The air defense system of the Ukraine was created according to Soviet principles, with deep separation, extensive use of maneuver and camouflage, and the use of anti-aircraft ambush tactics. In the history of wars, such a powerful and diverse air defense system operates for the first time.
With regards to the supply of Western weapons. They turned out to be a tangible help for the Ukrainian troops, but not enough. There are few foreign weapons, ensuring their operation suffers due to the extremely short training period for Ukrainian combat crews. There is an ammunition shortage. In addition, a number of European countries are sabotaging supplies initiated by the United States, which leads to a low density of heavy equipment per kilometer of front and does not have a significant impact on hostilities.
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation use the theater of operations within the framework of the NMD to develop the latest weapons. At a minimum, the use of BMPTs, the Tornado-G and Tornado-S MLRS systems, and a flight of Su-57 fighters was noticed. For the first time, the Buk-M3 air defense system is used in combat conditions.
– Colonel Khodarenok (machine translation)
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Russian Sanctions Are Hurting U.S. WAY MORE Than Russia
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EXPOSING CAPITALISM'S MULTITUDE OF VICES AND INCURABLE PROBLEMS
The Jimmy Dore Show
Russian Sanctions Are Hurting U.S. WAY MORE Than Russia
Jun 12, 2022
U.S.-led sanctions were supposed to cripple Russia’s economy and force Putin to pull out of Ukraine, but it turns out that the suffering from these sanctions in an interdependent global economy are spread around, as American consumers are discovering with record-high gas prices. So what happened? According to one French economist, Americans fundamentally failed to understand the importance of Russia’s productive output and talk of Russia’s economy being “the same size as Spain’s” reflected a similar misunderstanding of the modern global economy. Jimmy and The Dive’s Jackson Hinkle tackle the consequences of the west’s underestimating Russian economic power.
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This footage is being shown on internet for the first time. The tower in the middle of the steppe is one of the newest missile complexes of modern Russia – "Avangard". Hypersonic weapon of a new generation, which has been talked about a lot around the world in recent years. Today we will show this complex as close as it is allowed. But still, it will be the second hero of our film. The first one is still "Sarmat". Title of the program: "Sarmat". Part 3. "Sarmat" and "Avangard". So we continue the trilogy about the most powerful weapon ever created by mankind. In the third part it’s high time we understood what the place of "Sarmat" in the structure of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces [RVSN] is. Who will control the new missile complex, where will these missiles stand, how will they be used, how will they be guarded? And, finally, what does the hypersonic "Avangard" have to do with it? The answers to these questions will be right now in Combat Approved.
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35 meters in length, 3 in diameter. Its weight is more than two hundred tons! The figures are approximate. The details are classified. This object is the most dangerous and most powerful weapon on the planet. It demonstrated its capabilities for the first time on April 20, 2022. Well, the long-awaited moment has come. The film crew of our program turned out to be one of those few who were given the right to see the missile launch with their own eyes, to get it on video and not only that.
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The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.