Gonzalo Lira: What Russia Has To Do After Russia Wins
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Gonzalo Lira
Gonzalo Lira: What Russia Has To Do After Russia Wins
June 8, 2022 Forget a negotiated peace. Russia has no choice but to turn Ukraine into a permanently neutral rump state, without actual sovereignty, says Lira, and we agree. A state controlled by some Moscow-allied leader. Vertainly not a tyrant, or a gauleiter. And, of course with no Nazis allowed anywhere, nor, for that matter, even a hint of a foreign military alliance, cultural influence, NGOs and the whole fetid rest emanating from the West. Ukraine, in whatever form, must henceforth become off-limits to Washington and its decadent accomplices.
I am actually still awaiting the military putsch in Ukraine for some time, but for the moment the Ukrainian secret services are still controlled by both the UK and the US, but the military putsch will happen, one way or another. The last part of Lira’s talk has the US way of thinking…that Russia needs to distract the US matter, for example, pushing the US “anger” towards China like.
Well, no, Russia doesn’t need to do that, or will do that, ever.
He must’ve forgotten, like most of the western way of thinking people, what Putin said in Beijing…the friendship between China and Russia has no limits…And, that’s exactly what it means — the friendship has no limits — something that a western way of thinking person cannot fathom.
He is not saying that Russia will want to do that. He is explaining why Russia will NEED to do that … to avoid what was not spoken – an unstoppable violence spiral ending in a worldwide nuclear exchange.
The hubris of the US elites of today is such that they will not blink in pushing for a “limited” nuclear exchange in the belief that “Russia will back down”. In a situation when Russia cannot back down.
The only way to avoid that conflict – which is in the interest of Russia – is to PREVENT a situation where that weakness OF THE US is confronted with the reality of Russia not backing down.
The best case though is still the US realizing they already lost this conflict and just giving up. But that will take YEARS for their brains to process. In a way, it is essential for the Ukrainian war to be prolonged – to allow the US elites as well as the public to process the “new” (to them) reality.
For now, they still live in a la-la land.
I just read how a “Ceasar howitzer crew destroyed 80 Russian howitzers in 3 hours”. Yeah. Sure.
The problems is, people still believe that bull. So more time is still needed. In a way, the Western wonder weapons are very much desirable on the Ukrainian frontlines for Russia – as that is the ONLY way to defeat the “wonder weapon” narrative West has built up over the decades.
You see, there is all this talk of “Western howitzers outranging the Russian ones”. Hmm. How will that narrative work out after Russian “outranged” artillery wipes out the Western “superior” one...
He did well descriptively. He fails prescriptively.
Russia “throwing a tennis ball to distract” while ‘boring the Americans with tiny, incremental movements of its own strategic interests” is silly.
Additionally, the “rump” entity run by Ukie Military is exactly what the US did in Iraq. They allowed the leaders of the Republican Guard to morph into ISIS and build a Caliphate, first in Mosul and then in Raqqa.
After Ukraine is taken apart, Russia still has to break NATO. Aegis Ashore missiles in Romania and Poland have to go. All NATO troops have to leave all member states using the 1997 membership as the red line. No troops, no weapons (primarily meaning no US in most of NATO territory).
These are the ‘to do’ list items for Russia. And it’s all ‘in the face’ of the US. Just like how Russia is destroying the Ukie military, liquidating the Banderite nazis, and neutralizing all the weapons the NATO countries are sending to prolong the war. In the US face, for all to see the powerlessness of the Hegemon and NATO.
The USA state dept. and the CIA cannot allow Zelenski to exist after Ukraine loses. Zelenski is a huge liability to the west when he loses, I would imagine his family and he will be flown out to the USA and I am willing to bet that plane will go down. That’s the reality of laying in bed with the CIA, many people that have come before Zelenski have learned that lesson the hard way. Coke-headed fella like Zelenski is a loose cannon on deck and the State dept./CIA cannot allow that to happen. Lay down with dogs you wake up with fleas..
When we say NATO, we think, what a massive organisation with so many countries. But, actually only a few countries matter in it, not Norway, from where Stoltenberg is from, not Poland, which shouts a lot, but has very weak leaders, but only the US and, maybe the UK, Germany and France. All the other countries are small, quite weak economically and militarily.
The UK is not a united country with a failing prime minister and a failing economy – lot of shouting as a military power — without James Bond(s) — quite happy to have coolies fight their war(s). France won’t fight a war with its feminine Macron. German government would fall at the first sound of war, where it’d have to fight as NATO. What’s left is the US, but it has a president with one foot in the grave, with fast dying brain cells. So, Kamala might be the next president. Well, can anyone imagine Kamala as the Potus?!
The chances are quite high for Kamala to become the Potus. Can you imagine Kamala against Putin, or Medvedev?
Now, where will the Ukraine be in a few months, with slow but sure grinding of the Russian forces against US/NATO proxy war?
Well Russia has to begin with itself. It has to understand it is a unique civilization between the east and west. It has to have values and not just interests. It has to understand its honey moon with the west is over. It has to clean house and get rid of the 5th column. It has to begin with emancipating its people struck in perpetual poverty and that too in such a resource-rich country. It has to maintain a balance between freedoms and justice. It has to fight rampant alcoholism, drugs and corruption. It has to do all this for its own self-respect. It has to make sure the enemies think ten times over before embarking on any adventure. But at the same time it has to be magnanimous and forgiving. It has to stand out. It can't just be another country with a central bank and robber barons ruling the roost. If Russia cant be all this, then what good is it. How is it different from the west?
So while Gonzalo may look all the way into the future and come up with a fantastic vision but it cant be realized without self-introspection and change from within.
Russians should no longer look at amazement toward europe with their eyes wide open at seeing anything European. Enough. And stop aping the west. For God's sake, your own clothes and culture are beautiful. And stop trying to speak English in the manner an American or Britisher speaks. It doesn't suit you. Your own Russian language is much more beautiful. Have you ever seen a weatern intellectual trying to speak Russian when he knows he can't speak it well enough. So stop. And start respecting your own language. Use subtitles where needed but speak your own language. Russia is beautiful. Don't mess it up. Love it and respect it and be grateful.
They need to find Kolomoisky and all his cronies and arrest them and seize any of their assets. Pinchuk, Poroshenko and all the Ukie oligarchs. Put Kolomoisky on trial for murder. Arrest and or deport the nazis to Poland or the UK.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
As Russia has tightened its hold over information channels to the point of virtually criminalizing criticism of the “special operation” in Ukraine, Russia’s business dailies sometimes succeed in providing unwelcome information to the authorities. Perhaps the authorities do not fear the select readership of these dailies, perhaps it assumes that the readership has access to sources of information. In any case RBC media has provided an article proving that the sanctions imposed on Russia are taking their toll on Russia’s defense industry. It turns out that even the quintessentially Russian Kalashnikov has foreign components. The absence of foreign components has caused extensive production delays, reliance on obsolete equipment, disruption of maintenance schedules and even layoffs.
“Following the launch of Russia’s military special operation in Ukraine, the US and the European countries imposed a series of new sanctions against the Russian military-industrial complex. Now defense industry complex plants are still assessing the risks, but it is already apparent that due to the new restrictions a number of contracts will be postponed. There are problems with the lack of marine diesel engines, import substitution of helicopter and aircraft engines, electronics, replacement of imported components installed in tank’s fire control systems, as well as aircraft repairs. Yet, defense industries claim that the state defense order will be fulfilled at the same level, as in the previous year.
“The industry doesn’t have the task of achieving a 100% level of import substitution for all products, as “Rostec” [corporation] and the Ministry of Industry and Trade emphasize. Reliance is being shifted to parallel imports. RBC has been taking with leading defense industry enterprises and experts to find out from them, how extensive are the problems caused by the new sanctions and what are the plans for resolving them.
“How Did The Authorities In Charge Of The Military-Industrial Complex React
“In early March, Deputy Prime Minister for the Defense Industry, Yury Borisov stated that ‘the full magnitude and depth of the current sanctions… was difficult to forecast.’ However, Borisov noted that in 2021 the state defense order was fulfilled by 98% and that ‘every opportunity for maintaining such indicators in the future’ exists.”
Yuri Borisov (Source: Rg.ru)
“At Rostec they explained to RBC that the corporation’s revenues are comprised of three elements: civilian goods, state defense orders and exports According to the corporation, the latter two accounted for about 55% of corporate revenues, while civilian products accounted for over 45%. ‘Naturally changes (considering today’s reality) are inevitable, the ratio will change. How exactly it will happen? We are now scrutinizing this issue. Approximately by the middle of the year the picture will become clear,’ stated Rostec. ‘Now the companies belonging to the state corporation adjust their plans on a number of projects, in consideration of the new inputs. Their deadlines have been objectively “shifted to the right” (that is, they were postponed to a later date),’ said the Rostec representative, without specifying what these projects are.
“Among the measures being taken, Rostec cited the following: development of new cooperation opportunities, fundamental changes in the suppliers, as well as intensification of import substitution programs in critical areas. For instance, regarding aviation, these concerns: propulsion systems (both for aircraft and helicopters), onboard systems and specialized software for production. Nevertheless, the task of producing absolutely everything [domestically] didn’t and doesn’t exist, the state corporation emphasized. “This is unreasonable, as there are alternative suppliers, there is also a mechanism of parallel import,” they summed up at Rostec.
“The Ministry of Industry and Trade also told RBC that no country in the world is able to completely abandon the use of foreign technologies and components. ‘Statements about 100% import substitution are populist ones,’ argued the ministry. Regarding the decisions to support of the industry, the ministry recalled that during the COVID-19 pandemic the department generated the necessary measures, some of which were perceived as redundant at the time. Thus some measures, brought to a state of readiness, weren’t implemented. ‘And now we are applying these “drafts”,” summarized the ministry, without specifying what tools they were referring to.
“What’s Going On In The Aircraft Industry
“A representative of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) stated in an interview to RBC that after the new sanctions were imposed ‘there is more work to be done.’ In the civilian segment [of the industry], the short term maintenance of the serviceability of the existing fleet of Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft is an important area of work for Russian manufacturers of planes, systems and components. The work is being performed with the airline companies and each [aircraft] operator has its own “road map” of joint actions. According to UAC, for the past period spare parts depots have been established including a pool of replacement engines. However, ‘there are of course sensitive positions’ regarding the Superjet 100 repairs, admitted the company.
“In early April, Yury Lapin, General Director of IrAero airlines, warned that due to the US and EU sanctions, airlines operating domestically-produced “Sukhoi Superjet 100” aircraft are unable to provide repairs and maintenance to assure the technical fitness of Russian-French SaM146 engines. Such a situation, according to Lapin, may lead to ‘a stoppage of [maintenance] on the fleet of Superjets in the short term perspective. Engine service problems were also reported by managers of three other airlines that fly Superjet planes. One of them noted that his airline will have to stop passenger flights on these planes as early as the fall of 2022, provided the engine tech support won’t improve.
“‘There are the two largest programs in civil aviation: manufacturing and exploitation of the short-haul Superjet 100 and of the medium-haul MS-21.’ Both programs presumed the utilization of a significant number of foreign-produced components, reminded Oleg Panteleev, Executive Director at the AviaPort industry agency. We are talking in particular about American-produced Pratt & Whitney engines for the MS-21 and Russian-French SaM146 engines for the Superjet 100 planes’, he specified. ‘The Americans stopped the supplies, in turn, the French side has also blocked the delivery of its component, i.e., of the generator module and other components. Therefore, it’s not possible to maintain production at the planned speed,’ elaborated the expert.
“‘Regarding combat aircraft, even if somewhere isolated foreign-produced components are being used, they belong to the category where their usage is allowed, because large warehouse inventories of them were created in advance, and they can be bought in the countries that don’t support sanctions’, noted Panteleev.
“At the end of March, the newspaper Kommersant reported that UAC had failed to receive the majority of the MS-21 engines from the American “Pratt & Whitney” company, due to which the commissioning and supply plan for this aircraft had to be reduced. Rostec plans to start deliveries of the MS-21 equipped with a home-produced PD-14 engine in 2024, but even these terms are considered way too optimistic in the industry, stressed the newspaper.
“Deputy Prime Minister, Borisov stated in mid-March that the Russian authorities at the background of sanctions were considering the prospects of increasing the serial production of IL-96 and Tu-214 passenger planes, which are currently produced in small batches for special customers. The UAC told RBC that they are already increasing the manufacturing of Tu-214 planes. ‘These planes will make it possible to support the air transport industry through a difficult period, stated the company.
“As for the helicopter-manufacturing programs, it’s necessary to replace imported engines for Ansat, Ka-62 and Ka-226 helicopters, Panteleev continues. ‘At the same time, there are more concerns about future maintenance and repair of Western-produced machines involved in the production of aircrafts. It’s necessary to purchase them in order to increase the production volume,’ concluded the expert.
“According to the Disclose investigative journalism portal, between 2014 and 2018, the French Thales group of companies equipped 60 twin-seat Su-30 multi-purpose fighters with the latest TACAN navigation systems. What’s more, similar TACAN systems were delivered to Russia for upgrading MiG-29 fighters, as well as special high-tech pilot helmets.
“Since 2014, Russian Air Force jets have been equipped with Sigma 95N navigation systems developed by the French Safran” company, which allow autonomous navigation without satellite signals. According to the Disclose website the target detection systems were supposed to be installed on Ka-52 helicopters.
“What Shipbuilders Say
Commenting on RBC’s question regarding the components, which are in short supply due to new restrictions, the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC) stated that the volume of domestic production must be increased, first for all for marine diesel engines, for components of propulsion systems, for anchor-mooring equipment and ship systems (water circulation, waste water management, etc.).
“Russian shipbuilders today are going through enormous difficulties regarding the supply of engines for ships of all types: from boats to large warships, Ilya Kramnik Researcher at the Center for North American Studies of IMEMO Russian Academy of Sciences, and Navy expert, confirmed to RBC.
“For instance, multipurpose corvettes of ‘Project 20380′ equipped with guided missiles were initially fitted with engines made by the Kolomna plant. According to Kramnik, the practice of their usage demonstrated that the domestic diesels didn’t meet expectations. As the expert explained, there were complaints about engines’ reliability, power, and upgrade potential. It was decided to equip the improved corvettes of this type (project 20385) with German engines. However, due to the new restrictions the deal was derailed. Thus the fleet continues to use domestically-produced diesel engines, while for some projects the purchase is made in China, noted the expert.
“There are relatively few companies in the world that are capable of producing powerful modern diesel ship engines. And Russian companies aren’t among them, although Russia possess some competence in manufacturing diesel, stressed Kramnik. Regarding the propulsion systems and anchor-mooring equipment, traditionally the emphasis was put on imported components, and it remains unclear how promptly domestic developments can be introduced, summed up the expert.”
Ilya Kramnik (Source: Newprospect.ru)
“The USC has developed and is implementing import substitution plans for these types of equipment, as stipulated by the Shipbuilding Industry Development Strategy drawn up to 2035. It is planned to start serial production of cycloidal propellers for a series of river-sea vessels, in addition to domestic engines, whose [production] has been already mastered, and which are supplied en masse to such vessels. Besides, the Russian enterprises, which deal with engine production are upgrading them to the requirements of the register.
“The corporation has been working in this direction for some time, but now the magnitude of such work has grown considerably and at the USC they are sure that it aims to become a full-fledged business segment capable of generating proceeds. It will take about two years to work out tactical solutions. “From 2024 till early 2025, we expect to transform [our production] to be based entirely on Russian-produced piston machines and other systems that were traditionally bought from foreign countries,” explained the USC. ‘The situation demands, first of all, a tough stance of state customers with regard to meeting civil demand with Russian-produced ship equipment. This will provide the main support for shipbuilders, stressed the corporation.’
How Serious Are The Problems With Electronics?
“Deputy Prime Minister Borisov has repeatedly mentioned the ‘collapse of microelectronics’ in Russia and the need to restore this industry. In mid-May, he stressed again that the country is facing the task of acquiring technological independence.
“Ruselectronics holding told RBC that in the face of restrictions, the holding’s companies continue to fulfill contracts under state defense orders and produce civilian goods. In order to facilitate an uninterrupted work, the holding’s stocks of electronic components are being used, while cooperation chains are being reviewed
“‘In terms of exports, we record stable demand from foreign customers for a number of electronic components, particularly sealed magnetically controlled contacts. Thus, we expect export revenue in the first half of 2022 to remain at the level of 2021,’ Ruselectronics summed up.
“According to Kramnik, the company grossly underestimates the situation claiming that there are no problems. ‘There are big problems with microprocessor production, in particular in military, military- defensive and space areas. The equipment that we possess now allows for production of some things, but one has to be aware that such goods are already quite obsolete,’ explained the expert.
“When the issue concerns their introduction in modern arms systems with AI capability, for example, of real-time data transfer and support for tactical decision-making, it requires growing foundation capacities that are not always accessible via older solutions, stressed Kramnik. Especially when compact equipment is needed, added the expert. ‘If there’s some kind of ground facility, a building, it’s generally not that important whether to equip such a building with 100 or 500 kilograms of equipment, however, when it comes to a guided missile, the dimension and weight requirements increase dramatically. The product has to be light and small, which is difficult to achieve,’ explained Kramnik.
“There are also issues with modern optical and thermal imaging equipment, continued Kramnik. Russian plants enjoy their own matrices, but they usually cannot satisfy the demand and don’t meet the required characteristics, noted the expert. ‘Even enclosures, switches, and cables are imported. That is, we should start not with electronics, but with electrical engineering,’ concluded the expert.
“What Issues Is Russia’s Only Tank Manufacturer Facing?
“The press service of UralVagonZavod (UVZ) told RBC that the holding’s enterprises are operating steadily and are even increasing their production volume. The concern has been operating under sanctions since 2014, recalls the company’s representative. Import substitution doesn’t concern the holding’s products of both military and civilian use, stressed Uralvagonzavod.
“Meanwhile, at the end of March, as Kommersant reported referencing the plant’s press service, that “a small part” of the employees at the car assembly line were sent on short-term leave with 2/3 pay. The exact number of employees on leave wasn’t specified. However, the press service stressed that there are pending orders until the end of the year and with regard to a number of products -until the end of 2024.
“According to a statement of representative of the plant’s trade union, Alexander Ivanov made to URA.RU agency in early April, there are, actually no issues with the quantity of orders, however, there are problems with their fulfillment. Ivanov claimed that Uralvagonzavod is facing a shortage of components, because of the transition to import substitution. ‘The plant is searching for Russian suppliers; we are developing schemes of raw materials’ purchase from friendly states that haven’t joined the sanctions,’ said Ivanov. In addition, he claimed that the employees at the car assembly line are being laid off (with 2/3 of their pay intact) on a massive scale, rather than on a case-by-case basis, as the plant’s press office told Kommersant.
“On the whole, Uralvagonzavod fulfills the state defense order, but the components for the fire control systems (including those deployed at the Russian main battle tank T-90M) were purchased via Belarus from the French Thales company, recalled Colonel Victor Murakhovsky, the Editor-in-Chief of Arsenal of Fatherland. According to Murakhovsky, this concerns not the fire control system as a whole, but only its ‘night time module.’ It’s not yet known how critical this issue is and whether there is a potential for production of domestic substitutes, said the expert. The European online EU Observer’ magazine also reported that Russian T-72s are equipped with thermal imaging sight made by the French Thales company.
Tank assembly at Uralvagonzavod (Source: Kommersant.ru)
What is the Position of the Gunsmiths?
“On April 7, a meeting of the Board of Directors of the Union of Russian Armorers named after M.T. Kalashnikov was held. The meeting was chaired by Alan Lushnikov, a [major] shareholder of the Kalashnikov Concern. The meeting was dedicated to the issues of import substitution, simplification of export procedures for arms and cartridges, work on elimination of excessive administrative obstacles regarding the arms circulation [on the civilian market], as well as to state support measures of the [gunsmith] industry (according to the holding’s own statement).
“Vladimir Zhikharev, Executive Director at the Union of Russian Armorers, told RBC that the organization scrutinized the risks that may appear in connection with sanctions pressure on part of unfriendly states. He also concluded that some enterprises – that are part of Kalashnikov holding are at risk of not receiving many components, 70% of which (and sometimes more than 80%) were previously bought abroad. Also, there is the short-term issue of the repair and replacement of imported equipment.
“‘Many companies [of Kalashnikov holding] find themselves in a very difficult situation. The air guns production as well as that of cartridges of many civilian arms experience shortage [of materials and components?] Some companies of the holding have ceased production of certain types of civilian products,’ said Zhikharev. In addition, he stated that Kalashnikov holding may experience a twofold decrease in the export of civilian small arms due to the recent tightening of the sanctions regime.
“The Kalashnikov press service didn’t respond to RBC’s inquiry, the same is also true for RBC’s inquiries to ‘Russian Helicopters’ and ‘United Engine Corporation.’
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
ALL CAPTIONS AND PULL QUOTES BY THE EDITORS NOT THE AUTHORS
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Sitrep Operation Z: Seppuku
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For the Saker Blog by Saker Staff
An interesting weekend is shaping up for those that watch the minutae. Military Summary Channel is now at this time standing head and shoulders above the rest in reporting.
As of the end of the day, June 2nd, where Russia is preparing the field to take Lysychansk on the high ground, difficult terrain and a river runs through it. (Severodonetsk and Lysychansk).
or more videos pleading with their command to supply them with necessary food, weapons and support.
Russia will take Lysychansk, timing depends on how strong the will to live is, versus the will of the Ukrainian soldier’s Seppuku and this will again change the shape and future of the SMO.
Russia however does not fight small and the whole of the front line is under fire again.
Translation:"The State Department said that the United States wants to maintain restrictions under START-3 after 2026, to achieve limits on "new types" of Russian nuclear weapons. Apparently, they are already dreaming of the Sarmat during their night sleep".
There is very little doubt that RS-28 Sarmat (1) as a strategic weapon, is not only unrivaled but also, in a good sense, a complete overkill. But that is the issue, even without Sarmat, the US has zero capability to stop what is known as head-on response (second-strike capability) of Russia. The US dabbling into the ABM technology for the last several decades produced, frankly, very little practical results and is no match for even a very limited second strike. Once one considers such weapons as Avangard hypersonic gliders (already on combat duty in 13th Missile Red Banner Division in Orenburg) and the fast-growing gap between the US and Russia in terms of hypersonic weapons such as 3M22 Zircon, which turns any SSGN carrying those missiles and deployed at both Pacific and Atlantic into de facto strategic strike platforms, one begins to grasp the scale of the problem facing the US.
Russia's RS-28 Sarmat Nuclear Missile Could Wipe Out an Area the Size of France
In other words, the US neither has nor will have any time soon any capability to prevent a massive retaliation on its own territory in case the US decides to do the unthinkable. I want to remind you, again, about admissions that do come out periodically about a complete vulnerability of the continental US to any modern cruise missile technology, let alone salvos of supersonic and hypersonic cruise missiles. It is a Congressional Budget Office report, no less.
Yes, RS-28 Sarmat is a unique technological achievement, but it shouldn't "simplify" the complexity of the retaliation issue which the US faces and obscure a larger strategic framework in which the actual military capability of the US is nowhere near the image it tried to project in the last couple of decades and, in fact, it now acts as a fast declining power following rigid and unimaginative dogma of Thucydides Trap, because even the ongoing SMO demonstrated huge limitations of the United States as a self-proclaimed global military power. In the end, who can ignore such "lovely" systems as Poseidon.
Which brings us to the statement of a newly appointed US Ambassador to 404 Bridget A. Brink who stated that it is for VSU to decide at what distance to shoot their weapons (in Russian). Brink, being a product of the US "diplomats" diploma mill, obviously, as is expected from the US "diplomats", has no clue what she is talking about, because the only subject which dominates US "diplomats" curriculum is bombast. For all her credentials, she still doesn't recognize that she is not anymore an ambassador to small Slovakia but to a country that is de facto non-existent anymore and is next to the only country in the world which can wipe the US off the map in 30 minutes. But as I said, you cannot buy culture, let alone proper education, especially in the US foreign policy establishment known for its incompetence.
There will be 4 HIMARS platforms with 80-kilometer range munitions delivered to Ukraine. Well, even from a purely military POV those make no difference whatsoever, granted, if they even make it to the front line, most likely they will be destroyed before that. But the issue of HIMARS is a "hot button" issue and is primarily PR spun to give Biden Administration precious little to grab onto when facing complete annihilation with its best ever proxy and facing mid-terms against the background of disastrous approval rating and actual economic calamity unfolding in the United States. I did a fast search (using GEICO's app for cheapest gas) and got a lovely spread of low-grade gas from $5 a gallon in Boston, to $6.50 in L.A. And I started to wonder, for how much longer will this charade continue, because, obviously, the country is ungovernable at this stage and PR procedures do not have the desired effect anymore. I know, that one has to conduct actual governance, not running constant election cycle routines and that they don't teach in the US universities.
NOTES (1)The Sarmat is a three-stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range of 18,000 km and a launch weight of 208.1 metric tons.7 The missile is 35.3 meters long and 3 meters in diameter.8 Designated as a “heavy” ICBM, the Sarmat can carry a 10-ton payload and can load a wide variety of warhead options.9 According to Russian media, Sarmat can reportedly load up to 10 large warheads, 16 smaller ones, a combination of warheads and countermeasures, or hypersonic boost-glide vehicles.1011
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
Russia’s Necessary and Legal Military Response to US/ NATO Aggression in Ukraine
Dateline: May 28, 2022
Evidence shows that Russia’s special military operation (SMO) in Ukraine is a legally justified, critically necessary, and predictable response to the US’ recent escalation of its decades-long aggression against Russia in Ukraine–militarily, in the international corporate media, in cyberspace, and in the political-economic arena. The US’ hostile actions against Russia were summarized in a 2019 US-Army funded RAND Corporation blueprint for “Over Extending and Unbalancing Russia.” Underlying US actions is its aim is to dismember and asset-strip Russia–to appropriate its coveted oil, gas, and mineral resources and vast agricultural lands–and to enable US investors’ access to Russia’s economy. This is a step towards the US’ overarching goals of controlling Central Asia and achieving full spectrum dominance or global hegemony. Although the US war against Russia in Ukraine started years ago, US aggression escalated under the Biden administration and created conditions that posed an immediate existential threat to Russia and necessitated its military response.
In 2014, the US initiated a proxy war against Russia by engineering the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically-elected president. This ignited a bloody civil war on Russia’s border in which the US-installed and US-armed Kiev regime attacked the eastern provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk whose largely ethnically Russian residents opposed the US coup. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) documented the Kiev regime’s attacks that killed thousands of civilians and terrorized the populace. In 2015, the US-installed then-president, Petro Poroshenko, publicly articulated Kiev’s anti-Russia stance and its policy for the Donbass:
“We will have jobs—they will not. We will have pensions—they will not. [….] Our children will go to schools and kindergartens—theirs will hide in the basements.” Popular Ukraine pundits openly called for Donbas residents’ extermination. In 2015, Congress lifted its ban on funding Ukraine’s neo Nazi militias and placed US military trainers on the ground inside Ukraine. NATO and the CIA also began training Ukraine regime forces–effectively establishing Ukraine as a de facto US/NATO mercenary state. During the past eight years, Russia exhibited enormous restraint as the US and Ukraine violated the Minsk Protocols and rejected requests for diplomacy. In 2021, US aggression against Russia increased dramatically once Biden took office–in Ukraine and in the Black Sea. US actions and Ukraine President Zelensky’s public statements generated immediate threats to the survival of the Russian nation-state.
Russia’s Military Response Was Over-Determined By Four Existential Threats
The US government and the corporate media falsely characterize Russia’s special operation as entirely ‘unprovoked’ and an ‘illegal invasion’. These allegations ignore four conditions which each independently compelled President Putin and the Duma to initiate Russia’s denazification and demilitarization operation and which establish this intervention as consistent with international legal norms.
Chief among the factors necessitating Russia’s immediate military response were indications of an imminent new massacre as 125,000 Ukraine forces amassed along the border of Donbass in December of 2021. This was never reported in the US corporate press. Instead, the US government and corporate media repeatedly stated that Russian troops were gathering on Ukraine’s border (inside Russia) and predicted an impending Russian invasion. In hindsight, US intelligence could make this accurate claim because it was aware of the menacing buildup of Ukraine forces. Anticipating an imminent massacre, Russia was obligated to intervene militarily because it had a Responsibility to Protect (R2P) the citizens of Donbass. R2P is a political commitment to prevent genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity; it was endorsed by the United Nations at its 2005 world summit.
Second, on February 19, 2022, Ukraine President Zelensky announced that Ukraine would seek to acquire nuclear weapons, saying, “I want to believe that the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum.” Zelensky’s expressed desire to acquire nuclear weapons represented a dangerous threat to Moscow and signaled that the window of opportunity for conventional military intervention was closing. It is unlikely that Zelensky operates completely autonomously; Biden publicly bragged about his control over Ukraine government policies and has remunerated Zelensky following Zelensky’s implementation of anti-Russia policies and actions.
Russian tanks and war materiel being ferried on rails to Ukrainian fronts.
Third, Zelensky’s repudiation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was a reminder of Ukraine’s intent to join NATO. For years, US President Biden advocated NATO membership for Ukraine, assuring Zelensky as recently as December 11, 2021 that this was in Ukraine’s own hands. NATO membership would entail NATO nuclear missiles inside Ukraine, aimed at Moscow. Ukraine’s geographic proximity to Russia eliminates the crucial minutes in which Moscow could verify and respond to an attack and would effectively place Russia and the US at DEFCON Level Two. The US dismissed Russia’s December 17, 2021 verbal and written requests for a diplomatic response to its security concerns. Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken deliberately rejected Russia’s entreaties and ignored the predictable consequences of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership. Renowned international relations scholars, diplomats and politicians, including John Mearsheimer, Jack Matlock, George Kennan, Henry Kissinger, and William Perry warned that NATO membership for Ukraine was a dangerous provocation which would trigger Russia’s military response.
A fourth threat requiring Russia’s intervention was the presence of US Department of Defense-operated biolabs inside Ukraine. Russia’s concerns were validated on March 11, 2022 when Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland admitted during Congressional questioning that the Ukraine biolabs contained ‘biological materials’ which the US ‘did not want to fall into Russian hands’. While the pathogenic biological agents in these biolabs do not technically constitute bioweapons, they can become bioweapons once there is a ‘mechanism for spreading the agent.’ A delivery mechanism need not be sophisticated to be effective. Bioweapons researcher, Jeffrey Kaye, described the extreme level of US secrecy surrounding the biolabs. Kaye noted that the Director of the Pentagon’s Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, Robert Pope, did not reassure when he stated that, “the Ukraine biolabs currently did not have the ability to manufacture bioweapons.”
Russia’s Intervention Is Consistent with International Law
These four US-generated conditions represented urgent existential threats to the Donbas and to the Russian nation-state and contradict US claims that Russia ‘illegally invaded Ukraine’ and that Russia’s intervention was unprovoked. Russia was compelled to intervene militarily to neutralize these threats and its response is consistent with the United Nations Charter of 1945 concerning international rules governing a state’s use of military force. The United Nations allows two exceptions to its prohibition of the use of force in international law: “self-defence under Article 51, and military measures authorised by the Security Council in response to “any threat to the peace, breach of the peace or act of aggression.” In particular, the UN Charter notes, “there is no problem – and never has been – with that state, without first seeking Security Council approval, using military force ‘preemptively’.’ Both exceptions apply to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine: Russia perceived an imminent threat to the Donbas and an imminent threat to the Russian nation-state. The immediacy of these threats obviated any requirement that Russia seek prior UN Security Council approval. Seeking UN approval would be futile, in any case, because the United States, a permanent UN Security Council member, is the principal combatant generating the hostilities.
Under the Biden administration, what began in 2014 as a US proxy war against Russia in Ukraine transformed into the US’ direct war against Russia. The US’ covert and overt military actions establish it as a legal “co-belligerent.” Now, the US continues to flood Ukraine with billions of dollars of heavy weapons and provides intelligence to guide Ukraine’s attacks on Russian forces. The US blatantly states that it wants to “weaken” Russia and that Russia must be defeated. This is the US whose regime change wars in the Middle East killed 5 million; whose 1955-1975 war against Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia cost 3.4 million military and civilian lives. This is the US CIA whose coups and illegal interventions around the globe since its 1947 inception left a trail of bloodshed and chaos. Russia is legally and crucially defending the Donbas and the Russian nation-state against the US quest for global domination. The US generated four existential threats to the Donbas and to the Russian nation-state that necessitated Russia’s immediate intervention. The US—not Russia—is the illegal aggressor in Ukraine.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Maria Gritsch is a Professor in the Sociology department at California State University Dominguez Hills
Brilliant. Boy, did I ever need this. I did read just about every available website and opinions, looked at pictures. But this article does allow me to take a deep breath, sigh and proclaim to myself… Yes, what I felt was exactly what this lady writes, except she is serving details, numbers, facts. Dear lady, I am grateful for having the opportunity to be enlightened. "—Frank
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
Will Russia have enough "Caliber" (Kalbr) for a special operation in Ukraine Is it true that Moscow is running out of high-precision cruise missiles and soon it will "have nothing to fight with"?
So "Caliber" goes into the sky from the side of the patrol ship "Tatarstan". But these cruise missiles can be hit both from the ground and from an aircraft? Nonsense. Photo: Dmitry ROGULIN/TASS
These and other 12 "naive" questions are answered by the military observer of "KP" Colonel Viktor Baranets
Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27392/4587924/
The Caliber cruise missile has already become a real hit and a meme.
To "calibrate" the enemy is almost the most fashionable expression now in the troops. And the fact that this super-precise weapon is capable of reaching any military facility anywhere in the same Ukraine made Caliber one of the main strike forces of the entire ongoing special operation.
Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27392/4587924/
What is there to say! At the "Caliber" in the Russian headquarters and among military analysts, they literally pray.
And therefore it becomes uncomfortable when, with reference to Western military intelligence, you read that "Russia's stocks of Caliber are depleted" and they "left for a couple of weeks." And then "there will be nothing to fight."
How about it, really? How long will we have enough "Calibers"? Who even came up with this miracle weapon? And do we have something else in stock besides it?
1. Missiles vanished for a month and then there will be nothing to fight with?
Recently, indeed, Western and Ukrainian media have been actively throwing in (with reference to their intelligence) “reliable data” that Moscow, due to active fighting in Ukraine, is running out of not only Calibers, but also other modern high-precision missiles. Therefore, they say, the Russian command is already “scraping the bottom of the barrel”, collecting everything that is left in the warehouses.
Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27392/4587924/
Here's an example for you. As early as March 21, the “knowledgeable” American television channel CNN reported that, according to the Pentagon, Russia would run out of Caliber by March 24, when 1,200 of them would have been produced.
So what?
The operation has been going on for the third month, and the "Caliber" does not stop!
The fact is that Russia has been producing these missiles (and is producing) for a long time not only on the basis of one local military operation (as in Syria or Ukraine). The Russian General Staff, of course, keeps in mind the huge combat potential of the entire NATO bloc. And, of course, in the production of missiles (including Caliber), this factor is taken into account.
To have enough for everyone.
The West does not know exactly how many Calibers Russia has. Although its estimates in recent days are beginning to change. Now it is claimed that Russia "has enough" Caliber ", which" will be enough for a long time "...
2. How do the factories producing these weapons work now?
The answer to this question is "closed". In other words, it's a state secret. Читайте на WWW.KP.RU: https://www.kp.ru/daily/27392/4587924/
Foreign intelligence agencies in Russia are actively hunting for the answer.
Why?
To understand how long the military machine of Ukraine will be able to hold out and how the NATO command should plan its actions in this country during our attacks.
Unfortunately, some citizens do not know how to keep their mouths shut.
It has already flashed on social networks that some of our military-industrial enterprises that produce cruise and other missiles have allegedly switched to a three-shift mode of operation, and at one of these factories, they suddenly announced 500 vacancies at once ... Although I also heard from our defense workers: "Work is in full swing! We bake like pies…"
3. How much does one Caliber cost? And is it cheaper or more expensive than NATO missiles?
Caliber's main competitor is the American Tomahawk Block IV cruise missile. According to the Pentagon, its price is from $1.5 to $1.7 million (depending on the modification). Approximately the same price as other US cruise missiles - "Harpoon", "Jazm", "Maverick", LRASM.
Our "Caliber" (3M14) in mass production costs much less. Sometimes a price of $500 thousand apiece is called. But this is the cost of the export version of the rocket. The Russian army "Caliber" costs one and a half times cheaper - $ 300 - 350 thousand.
4. What are the grades of foreign experts?
In the American military-analytical magazine The National Interest, we read the opinion of local experts: “Caliber missiles have qualities that worry Western countries. First, these missiles fly low, almost skimming over the surface of the water or land, and avoid detection by the enemy. Secondly, "Caliber" is universal, they can be equipped with even the smallest warships, such as corvettes. US intelligence knows the characteristics of the Caliber. They are able (from the Black and Caspian Seas) to close the radius from France to Kazakhstan.
The range of "Caliber" - 2500 kilometers. They were first used against militants in Syria on October 7, 2015 ( see kp.ru website ). Then the missile ship "Dagestan" and small missile ships "Grad Sviyazhsk", "Veliky Ustyug" and "Uglich" fired 26 cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea. And they all achieved their goal flawlessly.”
5. And if you compare with the American "Tomahawks"?
It's easy to compare. Of the 59 Tomahawks launched by the Americans from the Mediterranean Sea, only 23 reached their targets in Syria.
They, in fact, did not complete the task of completely disabling Syrian airfields, hitting minor targets. Ammunition depots, taxiways and combat-ready aircraft of the Syrian Air Force remained intact ...
As a result, the millions of dollars invested by the United States in this strike were literally thrown into the wind.
It is worth remembering the operation "Desert Storm". American generals boasted there more than once of the "high efficiency of the Tomahawks."
However, after the publication in the New York Times and the Washington Post of the report of the US Department of Defense on the results of the Gulf War, this bragging subsided. The report stated that out of 288 missiles fired from US ships and submarines, less than 50% hit their targets.
TTX Caliber and Tomahawk. [Alexey STEFANOV]
And what do American specialists write about the effectiveness of our "Caliber"? In the same military-analytical magazine The National Interest we read: “Our space intelligence monitors the launches of Russian missiles. It is amazing that they are capable of overtaking even moving targets for two thousand kilometers, not to mention stationary ones. It seems that the Russians have perfected the aiming of such weapons at the target. There was not a single case when the "Caliber" hit an empty place. There were only a few episodes when the deviation from the target was more than 10 meters. But for the powerful warhead of this missile (400 kg. - Ed.) this is a mere trifle. The target was hit by the blast."
6. What else do we use similar to Caliber in Ukraine?
Here we have a whole brood of relatives of "Caliber" - cruise missiles "Malachite", "Mosquito", "Onyx", X-55, X-101. The latter, by the way, has an incredible range - it can be guaranteed to hit targets at 4500 km (2800 miles).
Of the other weapons involved in the special operation, it is worth mentioning the Dagger hypersonic complex first of all.
The first combat use of the "Dagger" (Kinzhal) occurred on March 18, when it was sent as a precision hit in the west of Ukraine to a super-protected enemy ammunition depot (in a missile silo built back by the Soviet Union and designed to withstand a nuclear strike). "Dagger" reduced this deep reinforced concrete shelter to fine rubble.
We also have the Iskander high-precision missile system. It is also capable of "falling through the window" hundreds of kilometers away.
Involved in the operation in Ukraine and "Bastion" - a coastal complex with a missile "Onyx" ("Yakhont").
7. Are Western intelligence agencies hunting for caliber secrets?
Judging by the testimonies of foreign intelligence agents arrested in Russia (among whom, alas, there were recruited Russians), they were most interested in the secrets of the Caliber guidance systems. And also - the possibility of jamming signals coming from our GLONASS system and drones.
8. Who created this miracle and what reward did he receive?
Back in 1983, the Novator Design Bureau (Sverdlovsk) began the creation of a new anti-ship cruise missile (the Turquoise project). This rocket was first shown in 1993. And it was on this basis that the 3M54 rocket was later created, which became the basis for the Caliber complex.
Many scientists, designers, engineers, technologists are involved in its creation. But there were “intelligent motors” among them - this is the general director, general designer of Novator Pavel Kamenev. He is deservedly - Hero of Labor of Russia and twice laureate of the State Prize.
Among the creators of "Caliber" (or rather, the rocket engine) and the former director of the plant "Saturn" (Rybinsk) Yuri Lastochkin. According to him, Vladimir Putin is also involved in the fate of Caliber.
Here's how he talked about it:
“The work was intense, there was very strong resistance from colleagues from Ukraine, who frankly did not want Russia to have its own engine for cruise missiles, and had strong lobbying positions in the ordering department of the Russian Ministry of Defense at that time. (These "colleagues" were from the Zaporozhye Motor Sich plant, they had fat orders for engines from the Russian military department and did not want to lose them. - Auth.)
It was clear to us that sooner or later Russia would need its own engine. The case helped. In 2000, Putin came to Saturn, and I reported to him that the creation of a Russian engine for a cruise missile was going slowly, because the main problem was the pro-Ukrainian position in the ordering missile department of our Ministry of Defense. To which Putin replied briefly: “Addresses? Turnouts? Let's get wet!" I thought he was joking. But by the way the faces of the retinue changed - the profile Deputy Prime Minister Klebanov and the head of the then Roscosmos Koptev - it became clear that the result of this "conversation" would be. And so it happened. Fans of vodka and lard had to vacate their chairs - and things got off the ground!
For solving this problem, the plant received gratitude from the president, and many employees received state awards and titles.
9. What other "surprises" do we have on the way?
We have the same accurate and effective weapon as the Caliber, but its development, of course, is kept secret. Although something is already lit.
These are, for example, the new Zircon hypersonic missiles. Until recently, they were considered sea-based weapons, and are now being transferred to land and aircraft systems.
They work on targets at a distance of more than 1000 km at a speed of 9 Machs (9 times faster than sound). They overcome any anti-aircraft defense and completely neutralize the superiority of the US Navy. Several Zircons are capable of destroying a $20-30 billion US aircraft carrier strike group in a matter of minutes. (Ed Note—The Wikipedia, a Western-intel controlled platform, has this to say: The high speed of the Zircon likely gives it better target-penetration characteristics than lighter subsonic cruise-missiles, such as Tomahawk. Being twice as heavy and almost eleven times as fast as Tomahawk, the Zircon has more than 242 times the on-cruise kinetic energy of a Tomahawk missile (~9 gigajoules, or equal to 2,150 kg TNTexplosive energy). Its 8-9 mach speed means that it cannot be intercepted by existing missile defence systems and its precision makes it lethal to large targets such as aircraft carriers.[45][46]
There is also a cruise missile with a nuclear engine of unlimited action "Petrel" in the stash.
A Russian MiG-31 fighter with an even more formidable weapon under its “belly” than the “Caliber” - the “Dagger” hypersonic missile. Photo: kremlin.ru
The missile itself can find gaps in missile defense.
10. Can you only launch from ships?
"Caliber" is a universal missile - it can be launched from diesel submarines (of the Varshavyanka type), missile ships, and from aircraft (for example, from a Su-35 attack fighter). There is also a land version of the Caliber (Club-K container missile system).
11. Is it intercepted by conventional air defense systems?
During the special military operation, the Ukrainians have never been able to bring down the Caliber. Its unique property is its low flight altitude. As the experts say, "Caliber" can be seen, but cannot be shot down.
The capabilities of this missile allow it to deceive the enemy's air defenses.
As for NATO, the United States has such an opportunity. Here is how the American experts themselves assess the situation: “Today, only Russian Kalibr missiles can reach the American military bases in Eastern Syria. Our Patriot systems, at least theoretically, can intercept them. But there has not yet been a single real interception of the Caliber by the Patriot missile defense systems. If this happened, the Pentagon would happily trumpet it to the whole world.
12. Can it carry a nuclear charge?
Yes maybe. The special nuclear warhead created for the Caliber has a "limitedly small" yield of up to 1 kiloton (20 times weaker than the US bomb dropped on Hiroshima). When it explodes, the openly located enemy manpower will be destroyed by a shock wave at a distance of 700 meters.
Vladimir Putin, by the way, stated that theoretically, the nuclear use of 3M14 is possible. But he noted that "I hope it will not come to this."
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The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and may or may not reflect those of The Greanville Post. However, we do think they are important enough to be transmitted to a wider audience.
Third, Zelensky’s repudiation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was a reminder of Ukraine’s intent to join NATO. For years, US President Biden advocated NATO membership for Ukraine, assuring Zelensky as recently as December 11, 2021 that this was in 
