DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

MbS wit Trump: Was the CIA involved in these maneuvers? Quite likely, but to what end? Whose side is US intel playing on?

The Saudi Clown Prince Mohammed bin Salman removed his competition within the royal family:

Saudi Arabia has detained three senior Saudi princes including Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, the younger brother of King Salman, and Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew, for allegedly planning a coup, sources with knowledge of the matter said.

Four sources told Reuters that Prince Ahmed and Mohammed bin Nayef were detained in the latest operation. Two sources, including a regional source, said Mohammed bin Nayef and his half-brother, Nawaf, were detained while at a private desert camp on Friday.

Crown Prince Mohammed, who is also referred to as MbS, “accused them (the princes) of conducting contacts with foreign powers, including the Americans and others, to carry out a coup d’etat,” the regional source said.

“With these arrests, MbS consolidated his full grip on power. It’s over with this purge,” the source added, indicating that no rivals remain to challenge his succession to the throne.

There are two plausible explanations for this step:

The first is that the two men were leading a rebellion against him within the ruling family, and it was intending to install them as king and crown prince as part of a ‘reordering’ of the House of Saud. This would have been aimed at reinstating its ‘traditional’ mode of rule, based on a more consensual and less confrontational approach to domestic and external affairs. Rumours that such a plan was being hatched surfaced last September after the mysterious killing of the head of royal security Abdelaziz al-Faghm.

The second explanation is that Muhammad Bin-Salman acted to get rid of his two principal opponents within the family – some reports claim a number of other members were also rounded up – as a prelude to shunting aside his father on grounds of ill health and incapacity and having himself declared king. He thereby dealt a pre-emptive blow to his main potential challengers.

The move comes at a time where Saudi Arabia is under financial pressure. The government's 2020 budget was predicted to have a $50 billion deficit or 6.4% of the Saudi GDP. But that was based on an estimated crude oil price of $62-63 per barrel, and assumed a crude production at around 9.8 million barrels per day.

In the first week of January crude oil reached $69/bl but it has since dropped to $45/bl as the coronavirus crisis destroyed the global demand. The Saudis tried to make a deal with Russia, the second largest exporter after Saudi Arabia, to together cut oil production to keep the price up. But Russia rejected a new OPEC cut. It wants to keep its production up and it will use the crisis to further undermine U.S. oil fracking production. As the whole fracking boom in the U.S. is built on fraud the move might well be successful.

Russia does not have a budget deficit and is well positioned to survive lower crude oil prices without much damage. Saudi Arabia is not.

The pandemic also cut the second largest Saudi revenue stream which comes from the 20 million tourists per year who travel to Mecca and Medina. In February, after the Covid-19 outbreak, Saudi Arabia prohibited foreign pilgrims from entering the two cities. This years Hajj, for which 2 million pilgrims were expected, is at the end of July. Should the pandemic still be around by then the Hajj will have to be called off. Several tens of billions of dollars would then be additionally missing from the planned government revenue.

Lastly the war MbS still wages in Yemen has taken a bad turn for him. Not only do the Houthi now have air defense missiles (vid), but they also proved that they can use them effectively when they took down a Saudi fighter jet. Last week the Houthi, also known as Ansar Allah, conquered Hazm, the capital of Jawf governorate and all inhabited parts of the oil rich province fell to them. This will have strategic consequences:

The liberation of Jawf province provided a very suitable condition for attack and dominance on strategic province of Marib. If Ansar Allah also capture the Marib, will cut the Saudi’s main supplies path from north to south of Yemen, and only the path of Al Mahrah province will remain for Saudis; also taking the control of Marib is meaning that Ansar Allah dominance on all of Northern Republic of Yemen geography; and also the most main base of Saudi coalition for Riyadh rulers will be destroyed; and practically will happen a certain failure for Saudi Arabia and after that, Yemeni army will take step for capturing the remained regions of Taiz and Aden provinces, with concentration and complete self-confidence.

Red - Ansar Allah, Blue - Saudi proxy government, Green - al Qaeda and tribes

Saudi Arabia is also occupying the eastern governorate al Mahrah along the border with Oman. It wants to build an oil pipeline to Yemen's coast that would allow Saudi oil exports to avoid the trip through the narrow Hormuz Straits. But local tribes in the al Mahrah are against the occupation and they have recently taken up arms against the Saudi army.

MbS's little adventure has cost Saudi Arabia several billions per month. Despite all the money spent on it the Saudi army and its proxies are on the path to losing the war. The know this well. Recently the Saudis asked the Trump administration to intervene at the UN to stop all aid to Houthi held areas. The UN will likely resist such pressure. The Saudi blockade of Houthi held areas has already cost hundreds of thousands of Yemeni their lives.

Mohammed bin Salman's escapades do not solve any of the many problems his country has. There are  surely many others in the very large royal family who will be willing to make a move against him. One day one of them might get lucky.

Posted by b on March 7, 2020 at 19:22 UTC | Permalink

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DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

[dropcap]T[/dropcap]he Turkish intervention in Libya might develop into a major international crisis as each side in the 'civil' war in Libya has several international supporters.

Turkey is now taking serious steps to move troops and equipment to Libya:

Turkey will introduce a bill to send troops to Libya as soon as Parliament resumes, in response to the country's invitation, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced on Thursday.

Speaking at a meeting of provincial heads at the headquarters of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party) in the capital Ankara, Erdoğan said the military mandate to send troops to Libya will be on Parliament's agenda when it resumes early January.

He also criticized countries supporting the East Libya-based warlord Khalifa Haftar rather than Fayez al-Sarraj.

Reuters noted that there is no public record of the 'invitation' Erdogan talked about:

It was unclear what specific invitation Erdogan was referring to as the interior minister in the Tripoli-based government, Fathi Bashagha, suggested in comments to reporters in Tunis that no official request had yet been made.

Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Russia and several west European countries support the anti-Muslim Brotherhood forces under Khalifa Haftar who controls most of Libya (red). Qatar and Turkey have taken the Islamists' side. Fayez al-Sarraj controls little more than Tripoli and Misrata (blue). He originally had UN and EU support but the lack of progress since 2015, when Sarraj's Government of National Accord was formed, has weakened his authority and his international support.

More foreign involvement in the war in Libya will be bad for that country but it might be good for Syria. In 2011, after NATO had supported Islamists to destroy the Libyan state, many of those fighters were transferred to Syria to help to destroy that country. Weapons from Libya were transported via Turkey to Syria to support the 'rebels' against the government. Both flows are now reverting:

Turkey-backed rebels from Syria will soon join the internationally-recognized Libyan government's forces in the fight against strongman Khalifa Haftar.

The ethnic Turkmen rebel groups that have fought alongside Turkey in northern Syria are expected to reinforce the government in Tripoli imminently, according to senior officials in Libya and Turkey.

The Libyan government had initially resisted the idea of such a deployment but eventually accepted it as Haftar’s forces began to advance on Tripoli, according to that administration’s official.

The so-called Sultan Murad Brigade has been used by Turkey to ethnically cleanse the Kurdish areas in northwest Syria. Its fighters are known to be undisciplined and brutal. They have been trained and armed by Turkey and their commanders speak Turkish. Some of them are also trained to call in air support. Other groups currently undergo training by Turkish officers to then be send to Libya.

Turkey and Qatar are offering relatively large sums to recruit more of such Syrian 'rebels' for Libya:

Sources confirmed that the Turkish-backed factions attract youth to join war in Libya offering temptations and rewarding salaries range between 1800 and 2000 US dollars for a single fighter per month. In addition to that offering additional services to be guaranteed by the host country.

Other sources confirmed that two fighters were killed in Libya days ago, they are of those who had displaced from Damascus and joined the Turkish-backed factions.

Less 'rebel' fighters in Syria will make it easier for the Syrian army to make progress in its renewed Idleb campaign. Since its launch on December 19 the new operation on areas held by the al-Qaeda affiliated Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) already liberated more than 40 villages.

Map via Al Masdar News

Both, the President of the United States and the Emir of al-Qaeda in Syria, issued quite similar messages of concern about the Syrian government attack. Both pointed to Russia and Iran instead of the terrorists those countries seek to defeat.

Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump - 15:25 UTC · Dec 26, 2019

Russia, Syria, and Iran are killing, or on their way to killing, thousands if innocent civilians in Idlib Province. Don’t do it! Turkey is working hard to stop this carnage.

A day before Trump's tweet HTS leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani published a video which one of his fan boys translated:

"Between the two [Russia & Iran], the regime is being used by the two sides as a puppet to take over territories and properties, through demographic change... To achieve their goals, the two have no qualms in committing the ugliest massacres against the Sunni people"

...., through airstrikes, bombardments and leveling to the ground, after they failed to pacify the revolution through political and security means."

Jolani: "Having said that, we are in front of a great battle, on behalf of the whole Islamic Ummah, and on behalf of a hypocrite world that once wanted to destroy the Soviet Union & to confront the Iranian ambitions."

The last part, 'on behalf of the Islamic Ummah', can be understood as a fresh invitation to Islamists and sponsors from everywhere to support al-Qaeda in its fight in Idleb governorate.

Joulani had previously rejected help from the 'rebels' associated with Turkey. He fears that they could endanger his dominant position in Idleb. He is looking for new recruits who are willing to swear personal allegiance to him. It seems unlikely though that his call will receive sufficient response to make up for the losses his current forces have to take.

The U.S. State Department has designated HTS as a terrorist organization. At a 2017 conference (vid) organized by the Middle East Institute, Brett McGurk, the U.S. government’s Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIS, called Syria’s Idlib province “the largest Al Qaeda safe haven since 9/11 tied directly to Ayman al-Zawahiri [current leader of Al Qaeda].” He added that the Al Qaeda presence in Idlib was a “huge problem” and had been so “for some time.”

Neither Trump's nor Joulani's protests will have any effect on the Idleb campaign. The Syrian operation to liberate Idleb will continue in several phases.

The Syrian army is currently fighting to control the blue area. It is then likely to proceed further north to gain full control of the M5 highway between Hama and Aleppo. The army will then move to take the western part of south Idleb to reopen the M4 highway which leads from the coast to Aleppo.

Idleb governorate is mostly rural and has few economic assets that are worth a big fight. But the control of those highways is essential for the revival of Syria's economy.

---
PS: Wikileaks just released a fourth batch of OPCW documents about the fake chemical attack in Douma, Syria. The documents do not seem to add to the know facts. They only support the already know manipulations of the OPCW reports as they were reported by Jonathan Steele and Peter Hitchens. We discussed those here and here.

Posted by b on December 27, 2019 at 15:22 UTC | Permalink

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DISPATCHES FROM MOON OF ALABAMA, BY "B"
This article is part of an ongoing series of dispatches from Moon of Alabama

MBS in Moscow. A man of many enemies —at home and abroad—and probably very effective bodyguards. But as soon as the US gives the nod, his life is probably not worth a dime. It happened to Trujillo and Diem, among others.

[dropcap]W[/dropcap]hen the Saudi King Salman promoted his son Mohammad bin Salman (MbS) to Defense Minister and then Crown Prince the expectations were high. But three of the major projects Muhammad launched since then soon ran into trouble. Now initiatives are under way to limit the damage he caused. The end of the five year old Saudi war on Yemen is coming into sight. The public offering of the Saudi state owned ARAMCO oil company is finally happening but with a much lower valuation than originally planned. The thirty month spat with Qatar is under repair. 

On August 17 2019 a Yemeni drone attack on Saudi Arabia's oil installations proved that the Saudis had lost the war. Moon of Alabama's headline empasized the effect that it would have:

Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen

Today's attack is a check mate move against the Saudis. Shaybah is some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from Houthi-controlled territory. There are many more important economic targets within that range. [...]

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

A month later another large scale attack disabled half of the Saudi oil output.

The Saudis have since procured additional U.S. military units to provide more air defenses around their oil installations. But U.S. air defenses are not effective against the kind of attacks the Yemenis launched. The Saudis had no choice but to sue for peace.

For several months there have been talks in Oman between Saudi official and Houthi delegations. An preliminary agreement was found but no official announcements were made. That changed today when Saudi Arabia’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel al-Jubeir made a comment that for the first time recognized the Houthi as a legitimate Yemeni entity:

Speaking on the situation in Yemen, al-Jubeir said that there is a possibility of reaching a truce in the country, which could be followed by a settlement.

“Yemen is of particular importance to us, and Iran’s intervention there is devastating. The only solution in Yemen is political, and the Houthis are the ones who started the war, not us.”

“All Yemenis, including the Houthis, have a role in the future of Yemen,” he added.

Today the Saudis also released some 200 prisoners who belonged to the Houthi. They were flown to Yemen's capital Sanaa. The preliminary agreement foresees the forming of a common government by the Houthi and the Saudi controlled former president Hadi.

This is not yet the end of the war. It will take quite some time before a new Yemeni government will evolve as the Saudis still have some unrealistic demands:

Saudi Arabia seems more open to some kind of coexistence with the Houthis in north Yemen through taking control over them from Iran. After signing the Riyadh power-sharing agreement between the separatist Southern Transitional Council and the UN-recognised government in Aden, Saudi Arabia and the UAE seem to be ready to move on to the next phase of their gouty war in Yemen.

Instead of the endless fighting, Saudi Arabia is trying to convince the Houthis to sever ties with its regional rival, Iran. After all, all the Houthis want is legitimacy of their new strategic posture in Yemen. This, in their view, must be cited in a similar power-sharing agreement that guarantees their share in a federation-like new system that includes president Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi’s government and separatists in the south.

Iran has never had "control" over the Houthi. Even the U.S. State Department has recently changed course and finally admitted that:

In a shift that analysts said reflects progress in Saudi talks with Yemen’s Houthi rebels to end the Yemen war, State Department Iran envoy Brian Hook said today that Iran does not speak for the Houthis, whom he described as playing a more constructive role in issuing a cease-fire proposal.

“We should recall that the Houthis proposed a cessation of missile and air attacks with Saudi Arabia just days after the Iranians struck Saudi oil installations on Sept. 14,” Hook told journalists at the State Department.

“The Houthis’ de-escalation proposal, which the Saudis are responding to, shows that Iran clearly does not speak for the Houthis, nor has the best interests of the Yemeni people at heart,” Hook said. “Iran is trying to prolong Yemen’s civil war to project power. Iran should follow the calls of its own people and end its involvement in Yemen.”

Hook’s comments praising the Houthi de-escalation proposal stand in contrast to how he described the Houthis, in a September Wall Street Journal op-ed, as an Iranian proxy group. He further characterized the Iranian-Houthi relationship as a “strategic alliance.”

The Houthi are not under Iranian control and neither is Hizbullah in Lebanon. These groups are independent political entities which make their own decisions in their own interests. Iran helps those groups during times of need as they will help Iran when necessary. Hook's claim that Iran is trying to prolong Yemen’s war is without any basis.

Iran has enabled the Houthi to resist throughout the 5 years of war the Saudis waged on them. Drones and missiles parts provided by Iran to the Houthi allowed them to compel the Saudis to sue for peace. It is therefore highly unlikely that the Houthi will dissociate themselves from Iran. They will agree to end their attacks on Saudi Arabia if the Saudis end their attacks on Yemen and pay for the damage their war has caused. If the Saudis do not agree to that more of their helicopters will come down in flames and more of their oil installations will be set on fire.

The war on Yemen was started by clown prince Muhammad bin Salman who was then Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia. He had hoped for a fast victory but the well equipped Saudi military proved to be incapable of defeating barefoot Houthi in the mountains of north Yemen. The war costs the Saudis several billions per month and threatens to ruin the state.

Muhammad Bin Salman's other projects did not go any better. He had planned to sell shares of Saudi Aramco at international stock exchanges and at a total valuation of 2 trillion dollar. The move was supposed to bring in $100 billion to finance a further industrialization of the Saudi economy. After many delays Saudi Aramco is now finally making its initial public offering. The shares will start trading on December 11. But the stock will only be listed at the Saudi Tadawul exchange.

The initial share price offer puts the value of the company at $1.7 trillion which is higher than the $1.5 trillion estimate international banks had published. Today the Saudis announced a large cut in their oil output to increase the global oil prices and the company's valuation. That might attract more urgently needed buyers to the IPO. But the stocks will still be sold to mainly domestic entities, if needed with some pressure. Instead of attracting $100 billion of fresh money from abroad some $25.6 billion will be taken out of the left Saudi trouser pocket to be put into the right one. The economic benefit for the country is dubious.

Two and a half years ago the clown prince tried to attack and occupy Qatar. The given ideological reason was the Qatari support for the Muslim Brotherhood. But the real reason was the Saudi need for more money which MbS tried to gain through a real estate and resource grab. The project failed when Turkish troops came to Qatar's aid. The Saudis and its UAE allies then tried to isolate Qatar with an embargo. That failed too but caused the Saudi rulers additional headaches which is why they are now pushing to end the conflict:

[N]ow more than two years on, signs of economic and political fracture are beginning to show not in Qatar, but in its embargoing neighbors. It is these indications that may help explain the countries’ recent conciliatory gestures, including the resolution to join the Arabian Gulf Cup in Doha and contemporaneous remarks by Saudi and Emirati officials suggesting a newfound openness to ending the dispute.
...
Since the oil crash of 2014, which saw prices plummet from more than $100 per barrel to below $30, all GCC countries have sought to offset enormous budget deficits by embarking on painful, fundamental changes to their oil-based economies.
...
As it happens, the GCC members that have gone the farthest in imposing unpopular reform measures are the blockading states, whereas Kuwait, Oman and Qatar have deferred implementation of the VAT and other structural reforms.

The Saudi rulers fears that their own population will point to Qatar and demand an increase in welfare or lower taxes. If all GCC countries, including Qatar, agree to take the same steps that the Saudis had to take, the chance of a revolt would decrease.

Qatar's foreign minister has recently made a 'secret' visit to Riyadh and the Saudi King has invited the Emir of Qatar to the next GCC meeting. But Qatar has a budget surplus while the Saudis have a 10% deficit. Qatar has no need to follow the economic policies of the other GCC countries. It will only do so if the Saudis are willing to offer something for it.

Three of the clown prince's major projects have failed. On top of that comes the reputational damage that the murder, on MbS' order, of Jamal Khashoggi caused. That the Saudi king has now taken steps to limit the overall damage may have come through the influence of Muhammad bin Salman's younger brother, Khalid bin Salman. KbS had been the Saudi ambassador to the U.S. Since February 2019 he has been the Deputy Defense Minister of Saudi Arabia. He was involved in the talks with the Houthi. It is possible that the king will finally recognize that MbS is not good enough for the job and that Khalid may a better successor to the throne than his brother Mohammad.

Posted by b on December 6, 2019 at 18:59 UTC | Permalink

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