2020 ACM Gordon Bell Prize Awarded to Team for Machine Learning Method that Achieves Record Molecular Dynamics Simulation

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Which Coronavirus Policies Succeed, And Which Fail: N.Y. Times Analysis Confirms Historian Eric Zuesse Projections

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Strategic Culture


“States That Imposed Few Restrictions Now Have the Worst Outbreaks”, “Coronavirus cases are rising in almost every U.S. state. But the surge is worst now in places where leaders neglected to keep up forceful virus containment efforts or failed to implement basic measures like mask mandates in the first place, according to a New York Times analysis of data from the University of Oxford.”

 
At Strategic Culture, on May 21, I had published my own analysis, which was based upon tracking the data globally and within countries, and within the various states of the United States, which analysis concluded that countries (and states) which apply the least-stringent regulations in order to keep as low as possible the spread of the virus are failing the most to contain or limit that spread. I labelled those the “libertarian” countries, and I noted that what I called the “socialist” countries — the nations which were the most strictly imposing scientifically confirmed regulations in order to keep those numbers down — were having the best success at limiting the spread of this virus. My study was global, and its headline was “Ideology and Coronavirus”. Unlike the Times article, I was forthright about the ideological implications of the coronavirus data — because those implications are vastly important. (The handling of this pandemic is providing reams of data that test the effectiveness of the various locales’ predominant ideology at dealing with a global life-or-death years-long public-health emergency in regions throughout the world. This is like a global laboratory experiment testing the two opposite ideologies: libertarianism, which is against government regulation, versus socialism, which applies government regulation. No government is purely one or the other, but those are the two poles.)
 
The analysis in the Times article shows a chart, and represents on it almost all of the states, as dots that indicate both the amount of regulation which has been applied, and the lowness of the infection-rate which has resulted; and, at the upper left corner on it, are the two Dakotas, as “Weak recent containment measures and many cases,” while at the bottom rightmost corner is Hawaii as “Strict measures and fewer cases.”
 
The Times chart is showing, only locally within the United States, during just the past few weeks, what my analyses had shown, regarding not only the international and longer-term data, but also within the United States itself and recently, not only longer-term and internationally. One of my articles, on November 1st and titled “The Highest Covid-Infection-Rate States”, showed the infection-rate for all 50 states, and noted that, “In 2016, the top 17 [the states with the highest rates of this infection in 2020] voted for Trump, and the bottom 5 voted for Clinton. All but 3 of the top 24 voted for Trump, but from numbers 25 to 45, there was a political mixture. The highest infection-rate state, North Dakota, has a Covid-19 infection-rate that is 14.6 times higher than the lowest Covid-19 infection-rate state, Vermont.” Of course, the Republican Party (Trump’s Party) is the more libertarian Party, and the Democratic Party (Clinton’s Party) is the more socialist (though actually just as totalitarian) of the two Parties. (Both Parties represent only their billionaires, who also own and control the media; and this is the way that America’s aristocracy controls the Government. For example, the very pro-Democratic-Party website PoliticalWire quoted from and linked to the NYT’s article, but always fails to include any of mine, because I am critical against both Parties. Truly independent news-media are almost non-existent in the United States.)
 
Whereas the Times’s chart of “Avg. new cases per 100,000” failed to include Vermont, Vermont is the state that has, for the longest time, been among the best three on not only cases per million but also deaths per million, from this virus, and substantially better even than Hawaii, and both states are among the two or three that in recent decades have been the strongest for Democratic candidates, and the weakest for Republican candidates. However, Vermont especially is politically independent, and, so, it has a Republican Governor, Phil Scott, whose record on containing this virus has been the best in the nation; and he was just re-elected in a landslide, 69% of the votes (largely because of this terrific record). Right now, however, the number of daily new cases has shot up suddenly about fivefold in just the past week; so, Phil Scott’s record is in jeopardy. If that surge quickly ends, then he could become the strongest Republican to run against Kamala Harris or Joe Biden in 2024. He would not only receive almost all Republican votes (since that’s his Party), but also at least a third of Democratic votes, and almost all independent votes. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that he would be the likeliest to win the Republican nomination, because (just as is true about the Democratic Party) that Party’s billionaires will be making that choice. (It was blatantly true also with regard to Biden and Harris.) This epidemic will be a major political challenge both in 2022 and in 2024. Anyone who wants to see Governor Scott’s press conferences regarding this crisis, so as to know precisely what his coronavirus-policies have been, can see them here. His November 20th press conference is here. He and his governing team receive and answer there many intelligent questions, so that the policies which have led to the best results in America are amply explained there.
 
On November 16th in South Dakota (and then repeated nationally on National Public Radio on November 20th), reporter Seth Tupper headlined “Two States, Different Paths: Vermont Keeps Virus Low While Rivaling SD's Economy” and provided a thorough report, including graphs of infection-rates over time, comparing two states, South Dakota, which has the nation’s second-highest infection-rate (after only North Dakota’s 9%) of 7.8%, versus Vermont, which has the nation’s lowest infection-rate, of only 0.5% — one-fifteenth as high. Tupper explained the different policies that the Governors of those two states had applied, and how those policies produced vastly different results for the infection-rates and the death-rates in their states’ populations, but only moderately higher increase in unemployment in Vermont than in Sout Dakota, which at the peak in April had reached 16% unemployment in Vermont, versus only 10% peak in South Dakota; and, by the time of August, both states had nearly identical low unemployment-rates. Whereas the death-rates from the disease soared around a thousandfold, between April and November, in South Dakota, the death-rate remained virtually flat, almost no increase, in Vermont, throughout that entire period. However, both states were now experiencing soaring infection-rates during the current, second, wave of the epidemic.
 

 

 
Preview YouTube video Vermont Governor's Press Conference: COVID-19 Update 11/20/2020


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A HISTORY OF THE EARTH, a compelling new book by John Scales Avery

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By John Scales Avery
A new freely downloadable book

I would like to announce the publication of a new book, in which I have tried to sketch human history, from earliest times until the present, against a cosmic backdrop. The book may be downloaded and circulated free of charge from the following link:

http://eacpe.org/app/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/A-History-of-the-Earth-by-John-Scales-Avery.pdf

The place of humans in nature

According to modern cosmology, the universe is almost unimaginably vast. It is estimated that there are 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 stars in the observable universe. Of these, many stars have planets on which life is likely to have developed. Thus our earth and its life forms are by no means unique.

We cannot claim to be “the center of the universe" with any unique justification. However, the earth is our home. It is important to us. As parents, we wish for and work for the survival of our children and grandchildren, and for all future generations of humans. We must also recognize our responsibility as custodians of the natural world. We have a duty to protect both human civilization and the biosphere. We must work with dedication to guard and protect the future of our precious and beautiful earthly home. 

Cultural evolution

When humans first appeared on earth, they were not very numerous, and not conspicuously different from other animals. Then suddenly, in a brief space of geological time, they exploded in numbers, populating all parts of the world, and even setting foot on the moon. This explosive growth was driven by what might be called an “information explosion”. 

All animals and plants pass on information from one generation to the next in the form of DNA, the information-bearing genetic material. Occasionally, mutations occur, and favorable mutations are preserved while the bearers  unfavorable mutations die out. Evolution by this genetic mechanism proceeds very slowly. Humans too, evolve by this slow genetic method, but in addition, they have another method of passing information between generations: cultural evolution.

Cultural evolution depends on the non-genetic storage, transmission, diffusion and utilization of information. The development of human speech, the invention of writing, the development of paper and printing, and finally in modern times, mass media, computers and the Internet - all these have been crucial steps in society's explosive accumulation of information and knowledge. Human cultural evolution proceeds at a constantly-accelerating speed, so great in fact that it threatens to shake society to pieces.

Anachronistic human emotions

Today, human greed and folly are destroying the global environment. As if this were not enough, there is a great threat to civilization and the biosphere from an all-destroying thermonuclear war. Both of these severe existential threats  are due to faults our inherited emotional nature.

Our emotions have an extremely long evolutionary history. Both lust and rage are emotions that we share with many animals. However, with the rapid advance of human cultural evolution, our ancestors began to live together in progressively larger groups, and in these new societies, our inherited emotional nature was often inappropriate. What once was a survival trait became a sin which needed to be suppressed by morality and law.

 

Today we live in a world that is entirely different from the one into which our species was born. We face the problems of the 21st century: exploding populations, vanishing resources, and the twin threats of catastrophic climate change and thermonuclear war. We face these severe problems with our poor cave-man's brain, with an emotional nature that has not changed much since our ancestors lived in small tribes, competing for territory on the grasslands of Africa.

Ethics can overwrite tribalism!

After the invention of agriculture, roughly 10,000 years ago, humans began to live in progressively larger groups, which were  sometimes multi-ethnic. In order to make towns, cities and finally nations function without excessive injustice and violence, both ethical and legal systems were needed. Today, in an era of global economic interdependence, instantaneous worldwide communication and all-destroying thermonuclear weapons, we urgently need new global ethical principles and a just and enforcible system of international laws. The very long childhood of humans allows learned behavior to overwrite instinctive behavior.

A newborn antelope is able to stand on its feet and follow the herd almost immediately after birth. By contrast, a newborn human is totally helpless. With cultural evolution, the period of dependence has become progressively longer. Today, advanced education often requires humans to remain dependent on parental or state support until they are in their middle 20's!

Humans are capable of tribalistic inter-group atrocities such as genocides and wars, but they also have a genius for cooperation. Cultural evolution implies inter-group exchange of ideas and techniques. It is a cooperative enterprise in which all humans participate. It is cultural evolution that has given our special dominance. But cultural evolution depends on overwriting destructive tribalism with the principles of law, ethics and politeness. The success of human cultural evolution demonstrates that this is possible. Ethics can overwrite tribalism!

Ethics for the future

In the long run, because of the enormously destructive weapons, which have been produced through the misuse of science, the survival of civilization can only be ensured if we are able to abolish the institution of war. We must also stop destroying our planet through unlimited growth of industry and population.

Besides a humane, democratic and just framework of international law and governance, we urgently need a new global ethic, an ethic where loyalty to family, community and nation will be supplemented by a strong sense of the brotherhood of all humans, regardless of race, religion or nationality. Schiller expressed this feeling in his “Ode to Joy”, the text of Beethoven's Ninth Symphony. Hearing Beethoven's music and Schiller's words, most of us experience an emotion of resonance and unity with its message: All humans are brothers and sisters - not just some - all! It is almost a national anthem of humanity. The feelings which the music and words provoke are similar to patriotism, but broader. It is this sense of a universal human family, which we need to cultivate in education, in the mass media, and in religion.

Educational reforms are urgently needed, particularly in the teaching of history. As it is taught today, history is a chronicle of power struggles and war, told from a biased national standpoint. Our own race or religion is superior; our own country is always heroic and in the right.

We urgently need to replace this indoctrination in chauvinism by a reformed view of history, where the slow development of human culture is described, giving adequate credit to all those who have contributed. Our modern civilization is built on the achievements of ancient cultures. China, India, Mesopotamia, ancient Egypt, Greece, the Islamic world, Christian Europe, and Jewish intellectual traditions all have contributed. Potatoes, corn and squash are gifts from the American Indians. Human culture, gradually built up over thousands of years by the patient work of millions of hands and minds, should be presented to students of history as a precious heritage: far too precious to be risked in a thermonuclear war.

On our small but beautiful earth, made small by technology, made beautiful by nature, there is room for one group only: the family of humankind.

Other books and articles about  global problems are on these links

http://eacpe.org/about-john-scales-avery/

https://wsimag.com/authors/716-john-scales-avery

https://www.transcend.org/tms/2020/11/free-online-books-on-serious-global-problems/

I hope that you will circulate the links in this article to friends and contacts who might be interested.

John Scales Avery (born in 1933 in Lebanon to American parents) is a theoretical chemist noted for his research publications in quantum chemistry, thermodynamics, evolution, and history of science. Since the early 1990s, Avery has been an active World peace activist. During these years, he was part of a group associated with the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts. Presently, he is an Associate Professor in quantum chemistry at the University of Copenhagen. His 2003 book Information Theory and Evolution set forth the view that the phenomenon of life, including its origin and evolution, that including human cultural evolution, has it background situated over thermodynamics, statistical mechanics, and information theory.
 
 
 
 

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‘On the way to Mars’: Boom Bust observes China’s space race as it launches world’s 1st 6G satellite into orbit

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Dispatches by RT.com & other reliable sources

11 Nov, 2020 


"Great accomplishment under heaven"—

The Long March 5 Y-4 rocket, carrying an unmanned Mars probe of the Tianwen-1 mission, takes off from Wenchang Space Launch Center in Wenchang, Hainan Province, China © Reuters / Carlos Garcia Rawlins

China led the world in the number of launches per year in 2018 and 2019. It is upping the stakes in the space race by launching 32 rockets so far this year, and could hit 40 by the end of 2020, Huddy says.

“China’s Tianwen-1 probe is currently on the way to Mars” and the country is expected to launch another rocket, the Chang’e-5 with a lunar sample return mission, later this month.


The above is the culmination of a long and arduous process, but China is determined to gain full technological sovereignty, knowing well that the West is not just hostile but actively plotting to bring it down once again, by any means necessary. Hence mastery of space/satellite technology is vital. This is also crucial for a new production model that uses exotic inputs and does not rely so heavily on the continued hyper exploitation of our home planet resources. The accomplishments have been simply impressive. Below we present additional materials and a special bonus feature on the same topic.



Rocket nears spaceport for Chinese space station test launch
SPACENEWS.com

The Long March 5B Chinese space station test flight will carry an uncrewed new generation spacecraft. Credit: CCTV/framegrab

by — January 31, 2020 


Test flight for low Earth orbit space station to also demonstrate deep space crewed mission capabilities.

HELSINKI — The first flight model of a rocket designed to launch modules for a Chinese space station is set to arrive at Wenchang spaceport for a crucial test mission.

The Long March 5B launch vehicle — including a five-meter-diameter core stage and four side boosters — is due to reach Qinglan port, Hainan island, Feb.1, ship tracking reveals. Specially designed cargo vessels Yuanwang-21 and 22 collected the components at the port city of Tianjin before departing Jan. 26. 

The primary goal of the test flight is testing the Long March 5B for launching to low Earth orbit (LEO) in preparation for launch of the core module of China’s space station. A prototype of the roughly 22.5-metric-ton liftoff mass Tianhe core module was delivered to Wenchang earlier in January for integration tests. 

 
 
 
The Long March-5 Y3 launch vehicle launched the Tianwen-1 mission from the Wenchang Space Launch Center, Hainan Province, on 23 July 2020, at 04:50 UTC (12:50 local time). Tianwen-1 is China’s first Mars exploration mission and includes an orbiter, a lander and a rover. Credit: 斗鱼航天局

The launch will however carry an uncrewed test flight of a new generation crewed spacecraft designed to provide China with greater human spaceflight capabilities.

The as-yet-unnamed spacecraft will be capable of carrying up to six astronauts, or three astronauts and 500 kilograms of cargo. It is also designed to facilitate missions to the moon and deep space. The Shenzhou can carry three astronauts to LEO and has been used of all six of the country’s crewed missions.

The test launch is likely to take place in April following launch preparations at vertical integration facility. The previous missions involving the standard Long March 5 variant took roughly two months from arrival to launch. The Long March 5B mission is proceeding following a successful return-to-flight of the third Long March 5 in late December.

Space station test launch, high-speed reentry

In order to both simulate the launch of a space station module and test the beyond-low-Earth-orbit capabilities of the crewed spacecraft, the spacecraft will carry extra propellant, according to Chinese state media. 

“We will use the Long March 5B rocket to launch the space station, which weighs 22 tons. So we will use the weight as a standard for the test launch, using nearly 10 tons of propellant,” Yang Qing, chief designer of the new spacecraft, told CCTV.

Once in low Earth orbit, the two-module, 8.8-meter-long, 21.6-ton uncrewed spacecraft will use its own propulsion to raise its orbit to an apogee of around 8,000 kilometers. It will then attempt a high-speed reentry to test new heat shielding.

The mission profile appears similar in nature to NASA’s 2014 Orion EFT-1 flight. The mission will test avionics, performance in orbit, new heat shielding, parachute deployment, a cushioned airbag landing, and recovery. Planned partial reusability — by replacing the heat shielding — will also be tested.

The test launch is the first of numerous launches required to construction the planned three-module. 

“China has planned about 12 flight missions for the construction of China’s space station. The first flight mission of Long March-5B rocket is also to verify its performance,” Hao Chun, director of the China Manned Space Engineering Office, told state media.

Launches of modules, Tianzhou cargo and refueling craft and crewed Shenzhou missions make up the flight list.

Mars, moon, core module schedule

Two flights of the standard Long March 5, which is used for higher orbits, are planned in 2020. The first, in late July, will launch China’s first mission to Mars. A second will send the Chang’e-5 lunar sample return spacecraft toward the moon around late October. Launch of the Tianhe core module could follow this, in early 2021.

Chang’e-5 was originally scheduled to launch in late 2017. However the failure of the second Long March 5 in July that year delayed that and China’s space station. The new schedule follows the successful third flight Dec. 27. 

Preparations for the Mars launch, also China’s first independent interplanetary mission, are well underway. The YF-77 hydrolox engines for the Long March 5 came through a 100-second ground test Jan. 19. 

The final space environment tests for the five-ton spacecraft, which consists of both an orbiter and a rover, are being carried out in Beijing. The spacecraft will be sent to Wenchang following completion of thermal-vacuum tests on the 240-kilogram solar-power rover.

Image of China’s Mars 2020 orbiter and heat shield for the landing segment, released October 2019. Credit: CASC


BONUS FEATURE

History of China's Rocket Program

 


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Patrice Greanville is this publication's founding editor.

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WAITING TO INHALE: WHY IT HURTS TO HOLD YOUR BREATH

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Breathing of course is a reflex action; we do it more than 19,000 times a day automatically and without thinking. And while we can intentionally control the pace, rhythm and depth of our breath, the overall voluntary ability to override our own respiration is very limited. The air we inhale at sea level is 21 percent oxygen (02), 78 percent nitrogen (N) and .04 percent carbon dioxide (CO2). Technically, breathing and its purpose is the exchange of two of those gases, oxygen and carbon dioxide.

Our inhalations bring oxygen into the lungs, which gets absorbed into the blood and carried throughout the body. The oxygen is used or made into the energy we need to break down food, maintain bodily functions and do all physical activity. What then remains becomes carbon dioxide or CO2, a waste product. This residual CO2 is carried back into your lungs by your circulating blood and released when you exhale. This process of course will continue for as long as you keep breathing but when you hold your breath, the carbon dioxide accumulates inside you with nowhere to go.

When I was 22 years old I got caught in a riptide. I can vaguely remember spinning around in a salty washing machine of surf but vividly remember my feelings of panic, the dark cold of the water, and the claustrophobic tightening in my lungs. Over and again I slipped beneath the water holding my breath, surfacing momentarily to gasp. What I was afraid of was not getting more air but what I needed, at least initially, was to exhale excess carbon dioxide.

When you hold your breath the ongoing accumulation of carbon dioxide in your cells, in your blood and lungs will eventually irritate and trigger impulses from the respiratory center part of your brain. Rising levels of carbon dioxide signal the body to breathe and ensure our unconscious and autonomous respiration. The body has the ability to detect these C02 levels with great accuracy and relies on them to regulate our respiration, so that we don’t have to.

Beyond the burning in your lungs, the signals your body gets from your brain when your C02levels are too high, include strong, painful, and involuntary contractions or spasms of the diaphragm and the muscles in between your ribs.  At some point the spasms become so frequent and unbearable that you can no longer hold your breath.

In an April 2008 episode of the “The Oprah Winfrey Show,” magician David Blaine attempted to break the Guinness Book of World Records for breath holding subsequent to inhaling pure oxygen. After inhaling pure oxygen for more than 20 minutes he submerged himself inside a bulbous tank, resembling a life-size snow globe filled with 1,800 gallons of water. He was able to hold his breath for seventeen minutes and 4 seconds and successfully broke the prior record by 32 seconds. “I thought I wasn’t going to make it” he said right afterwards.  “At minute 12, I felt the pain coming, and by minute 14 it was overwhelming. This was a whole other level of pain. I still feel as if somebody hit me in the stomach with the hardest punch they could.”

The point of which the amount of CO2 that has accumulated in the body causes you pain is sometimes called the critical line and that line is different in all of us. The line however can be pushed back. Hyperventilation where you breathe in and out abnormally fast, can artificially rid the body of carbon dioxide and delay the critical line. While this may appear to be a good idea if you want to hold your breath longer it can also be dangerous. Some divers who on a single breath, and without any breathing apparatus go to depths from 30 to more than 200 feet, have been known to use hyperventilation to delay the urge to breathe which allows them to stay underwater for longer periods of time.

Without a strong bodily sensation to breathe- without the lungs feeling like they will burst or the diaphragm spasming, a diver may stay under too long and then have to make it back to the surface without sufficient air. As one diver explains it, when you hyperventilate, “You override your brain’s message telling you when to breathe. You’re running on your reserve tank and there’s no warning before you hit empty.”  Empty of course means out of air and as a result of their body and brain being starved of oxygen, these divers sometimes lose consciousness.  Called a shallow water blackout, losing consciousness can happen underwater but due to changes in pressure almost always occurs right as a diver reaches the surface. If they don’t immediately regain consciousness and aren’t rescued, they will inhale and then drown. Many of these divers are incorrectly assumed to have died at depth, but most often after inhaling water at or near the surface, they drift slowly down and are found not floating, but at the bottom.

I often remind myself to take long and deep breaths, and obsess at times about getting cleaner, fresher air or just enough of it.  It’s important however to remember that our inhalations of oxygen are only as good as our exhalations of carbon dioxide. A teacher of breathing Carla Melucci Ardito said “Learn how to exhale and the inhale will take care of itself.” Fran Lebowitz the famous, Jewish American commentator once said, “The opposite of talking isn’t listening, it’s waiting.” As it turns out the opposite of holding your breath isn’t inhaling, it’s letting go. 

The author works as Staff Analyst, Health at Los Angeles County (CA).

 


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