Russia Ukraine 2014: Ukrainian Military Clash with Russian Troops
Published on Mar 5, 2014

NOTE: This is a rather tendentious report on the clash between a Russian unit and Ukrainian garrison troops in Crimea. It is clearly pro Kiev, but the importance here is in the truth contained in the images themselves. As such it is a good document of a tragedy, engineered by the West, that pits essentially brother against brother. The lie implicit in the coverage (and repeated by the YouTube poster) is that “Russia invaded Ukraine,” which never happened.

http://youtu.be/lbUbuCQvJQ8

Russia can’t invade herself
Furthermore, as far as Crimea is concerned, Russian forces have been there all along as per a longstanding treaty, and the whole Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union until 1991. The tags also imply that it is Putin and Russia that created the current conflict and subsequent bloodshed. This is false. The ugly but still denied reality is that it was Washington and its NATO allies that engineered the coup that toppled the duly elected president of Ukraine (however corrupt, but when have we bothered to overthrow anyone because he was merely corrupt?), substituting in his place a putschist cabal with numerous rightwing and Neonazi figures. The reaction to the brutality of the Kiev regime in suppressing a legitimate rebellion in the East (advised by the Americans) soon transformed itself into an armed struggle that recently ended with the military victory of the self-proclaimed Novorussian nation, comprising the Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk and other territories. Their fate remains undecided at this point, but the new nation has plenty of friends and supporters in Russia itself and around the world.

The current situation as seen by Col. Cassad, a Russian observer. Note this is a translation, and some constructions may seem odd to English speakers. 

[I]n general, of course, it is not clear why there is so much surprise at the text of the “truce” and its results.

NAF soldier showing captured Ukie flag. (Click to enlarge)

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1. On the political underpinnings of the replacement of the leadership of the DPR and the LPR I wrote more than once in July and August, especially in the materials related to the attempts to neutralize Strelkov. Eventually, there was an attempt to implement in early September the same plan that was devised in early July. Those who lacked negotiating capacity were pushed aside, the others were suspended on the threat of suspension of shipments. If somebody didn’t get it yet, the shipments of the humanitarian aid to some or other commanders are the indirect element of control over the political processes in Donbass. Those who receive humanitarian aid are the good guys, those who don’t receive it are on the sidelines, in the best for them case.  After a certain point, the valve of shipments of the humanitarian aid is arbitrarily turned on in the interest of some field commanders and shut off for those who are stubborn. This is how the increase of controllability from Moscow actually happens.

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2. Moscow, just like in the Spring of 2014, does not have a coherent strategy in Donbass. It operates situationally. This happens because the line towards Large Novorossia, which was planned in early March and required a military intervention for its support, was abandoned. But because the rebellion actually already went full steam ahead by that moment, the Kremlin faced an unpleasant dilemma: the military intervention was ruled out due to a threat of a direct confrontation with the USA. They also had to rule out a complete dump of Novorossia, because the consequences of it for the internal stability of the Russian Federation were considered to be unacceptable. In the end, a half-and-half variant was chosen, when they fed the militia on the one hand and tried to negotiate with the Ukrainian oligarchs (bypassing the USA) about mitigating the process on the other hand.

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3. These negotiations continued over July; in the meantime there was a shallow stream of humanitarian aid for the militia. The fighting was in general low-intensity (compared to July and August), the sides swarmed, trying to feel out a compromise, but it couldn’t be achieved. During this time Mariupol was surrendered to the junta with Akhmetov’s help. In Donetsk they engaged in every possible activity (raiding businesses, fighting for power, fighting for humanitarian aid, creating constitutions of varying degrees of sanity) except war.  Strelkov, who appeared in Slavyansk with the expectation of a military intervention (which didn’t happen) and sat on the crucial transport hub in the rear of the junta military group that covered the border from a possible invasion, was frankly “sad”, while the increasingly strong military of the junta continued to encircle Slavyansk, preparing a pocket for Strelkov.

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4. Later the well-known events occurred: the junta offensive started on July 1st, Slavyansk fell into an operational encirclement, the work on surrendering the city started in Donetsk, Strelkov, after consultations with Moscow, left Slavyansk and Kramatorsk and arrived into Donetsk with 2000 fighters. Immediately, Pozhidayev, Khodakovsky, Lukyanchenko were thrown out of their positions. Pushilin left a bit later.  After that the war got really serious, without joking: the casualties got really massive, the destruction got really large-scale, every weapon that could be used was used. The failure of the attempts to negotiate naturally led to the attempts by the junta to win the war using only the force. They got close to this in the first half of August, when after a month of bloody fighting its detachments rolled into the streets of Shakhtyorsk and Krasnyi Luch. But as we now know, this didn’t happen and Novorossia stood its ground.

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5. Meanwhile, after Strelkov arrived in Donetsk, due to the increase in density of their battle order, the militia managed to free up the forces and set up the first major encirclement for the junta, which terminated in a massive catastrophe with thousands KIAs and MIAs and also with more than a hundred armored vehicles that were destroyed and captured by the militia. At the same time, negotiations with Akhmetov and Poroshenko were continued by the initiators of the negotiations with the junta (the immediate contacts were carried out both by Surkov in person and by his people) and their masters – the Russian oligarchs like Friedman and former members of the so-called The Family, like Voloshin. Kolomoisky, as his conflict with Poroshenko was developing, gradually fell out of the possible partners in these negotiations. Now Russia and Poroshenko hammer him together: Benya is no longer needed, Benya will absorb the responsibility for the civil war.

The main interest of the circles that are represented by Surkov is to prevent a direct confrontation with the USA, which would put their assets in the West and their ability to run business there under threat. The boundary condition was to prevent a complete dump, which would primarily damage Putin. He would have to explain why is it that despite all of the bombastic hurrah-patriotic rhetoric, Russia is getting bent over again and again in Ukraine – one time they put Yuschenko, another time they depose Yanukovich, and now Novorossia getting dumped. So while they were laying into Strelkov to the benefit of the Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs who were trying to negotiate, the valve of the “military surplus store” started to gradually open, but in strictly homeopathic doses.

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6. This was quite sufficient for the militia fighters to contain the offensive of the junta forces. The militia suffered losses and slowly retreated to the crucial positions: pretty much  surrendering the Lisichansk protrusion, Debalcevo, and Saur-Mogila. All of this quite reasonably led to the August crisis, when the junta tried to achieve a decisive victory by using the bridgehead in Debalcevo, getting so close to the victory that it could almost touch it. It is quite possible that if the junta wouldn’t plan various stupid moves near Perekop and on the border with Transnistria, but would use the military that were stationed there in Donbass, then they would be sufficient to actually cut the DPR from the LPR. But it didn’t happen. In Moscow it was understood that it is no longer possible to wait any longer.  A swift replacement of the leadership of the DPR and the LPR with more controllable people followed. They were replaced exactly with the focus on the negotiations with the junta. The main mechanism of the replacement was the humanitarian aid. The same Strelkov was given a clear condition: either you will go or your military won’t get the aid. It is quite clear what Strelkov chose. The private contractors were openly told not to send cargo to Strelkov a few days before his resignation. Because the decision to open the “red valve of the military surplus store” to the full was already made back then, the curators of the Ukrainian direction were absolutely not interested in Strelkov taking the credit for this. By this time he already managed to successfully defend Slavyansk for 3 months and then to defend the Donetsk agglomeration for more than a month. Therefore, right before the start of the counter-offensive, following Bolotov (in that case there were both political and a number of non-political reasons), Strelkov was forced to resign. Literally within a few days, the hot stream of water from the “red valve of the military surplus store” started to digest the junta units in rapidly emerging cauldrons. This led to the overall apocalyptic picture of burned bodies, burned tanks, and other materiel. The junta losses increased by the factor of several tens of times in a few days and the front line started to attain increasingly dangerous shape.

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7. The junta clearly missed this moment and continued to try to penetrate the defense of the army of Novorossia near Ilovaysk despite the threatening situation, with confidence worthy of a better cause. They pretty much did the same thing that the Germans did in Stalingrad. This culminated in a terrible catastrophe and in the disintegration of the whole South Front. The “red valve of the military surplus store” played its part perfectly and the junta started to openly get massacred in numerous cauldrons. In some places it was done by the forces of the army of Novorossia, in other places it was done by “merchandisers from the military surplus store”. But officially there are and there were no “merchandisers” there. The junta rolled back straight to Mariupol on the south, it surrendered the Lugansk airport and Lutugino, it effectively surrendered Debalcevo and the question of the military of Novorossia entering the operational space was put on the agenda. Meanwhile, Russia was taking advantage of the opportunity due to the unsuccessful provocation with the downed “Boeing”. “Boeing” was shot down by the junta, but it couldn’t properly dump the responsibility for this on the militia and Putin. So, while the junta yelled that the “military surplus store” is turning into an adult film studio where the Ukrainian army is having a very rough time, Russia expectedly pointed to the “Boeing” and the junta. As a result of this, a nicely shaped informational line of the West with respect to Novorossia was temporarily undermined by this unsuccessful provocation, which is now let go, albeit with difficulty.

The assault on Mariupol, a complete sweep of Debalcevo, capturing Schastye, the strikes on Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, and also the offensive on Konstantinovka were on the agenda. A threat of utter military catastrophe started to loom before the junta, on the background of a lamentable situation in the rear.

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8. By the late August – early September it became clear to everybody that it won’t be possible to destroy Novorossia militarily. The junta was clearly spewing blood and at the same time the USA and their satellites started to toughen their policy in the relations with the Russian Federation. Just like in April, the attempts to mitigate the process by going around the USA began, recording some acceptable result on the ground (they are trying to cover up these attempts with media phantoms like the “united pro-Russian Ukraine” and various rotten talks of “federalization”).  If you look carefully, the USA weren’t actually represented during the Minsk talks. And the behavior of the junta depends exactly on them. By September, Akhmetov already managed to fully reinforce his positions in the structures of the DPR (he will do just fine in Novorossia, no matter what it will become) and to set up a certain dialog with Moscow. All people who lacked negotiating capacity were removed from crucial positions. Thus, the negotiations were launched in Minsk, which were supposed to not only determine the future of Novorossia but also to help Russia avoid a direct confrontation with the USA, gradually letting go of the war and also avoid sanctions that touch “our precious Gazprom”, oil, and bank sector, and also some of the oligarchs. Little depends on Zakharchenko and Plotnitsky here, both of them are suspended on the humanitarian shipments and if it is necessary, then they will be replaced with even more flexible people. The junta of course jumped at such an opportunity, because the offensive by the army of Novorossia was developing successfully and the junta had no military way of stopping it. The offensive itself didn’t run out of steam yet and could continue successfully for another 5-7 days at least, liberating significant territories and major cities in the process. In the military respect the junta certainly benefits from this respite. Currently it is urgently plugging holes in the front and sending the reserves there, performing local offensives at the same time, akin to the offensive on Telmanovo with the goal of cutting the Novoazov group of the army of Novorossia from the main forces to the north of Telmanovo. Russia also got what it wanted in the form of softening the rhetoric of the USA and their satellites and the delay of sanctions. Ordinary militia fighters and fascist punitive troops, who didn’t understand what is the truce for… of course, they weren’t asked.  Within the framework of the so-called “big politics” these are just consumable pieces on the “chessboard”. Some of them may bleed in defense for a month, waiting for the valve of the “military surplus store” to be opened up for them. Others may perish by hundreds in the cauldrons, cursing Poroshenko and the AFU.

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9. Nevertheless, despite the political truce, the war as such continued, because the logic of the conflict demands its resolution by exactly military means. The inertia of war triggered new firefights, shelling, and combat. At the same time the junta openly and publicly demonstrates that it uses this “cease-fire” for accumulating forces and for preparing a new offensive. The USA look at this approvingly, because the military solution of the problem of Novorossia and the final defeat of Russia in the fight for Ukraine is among its national interests. It is absolutely irrelevant what will be state of the junta – while it remains in power, it will be used against the Russian Federation. The suffering of the population, victims among soldiers, destroying the infrastructure – from the point of view of the USA all of this is just insignificant collateral damage. So, from the military point of view, only a complete destruction of the fascist junta is a best guarantee for ending the war.

The leadership of Novorossia understands this, but cannot do anything – they are dependent on the political line of the curators of the Ukrainian policy and on the humanitarian shipments.

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From this come stupid announcements like “we thought that the junta may possibly observe the cease-fire, but it doesn’t observe it – bad, bad fascist junta”. Of course, such kindergarten talk/play/stuff seriously discredits both the military and political leadership of the DPR and the Russian policy in Novorossia. The junta figured out this moment and clearly uses it, but it has one problem: it cannot solve the problem of Novorossia by force if the star-and-striped hand of sanctions won’t be placed on the “red valve of military surplus store” and carefully shut it off, giving the necessary time for the junta. Otherwise, it is certainly possible to start another offensive, but the risk is very high of not getting the junta flags over Donetsk and Gorlovka as a result, but rather getting new thousands of corpses and hundreds of destroyed tanks and APCs with yet another temper tantrum by the patriots of Ukraine that Poroshenko and generals betrayed everybody.

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Because the parties cannot determine the parameters of resolving the crisis, the war continues on its own. The resumption of full-scale military action appears unavoidable, because the USA will push the junta towards forceful destruction of Novorossia. Russia, on the other hand, will fall into the very same fork of decisions: between a forceful scenario (military intervention or “impolite merchandisers” is not all that important – this is just a method of implementing a decision that was taken) and dumping Novorossia (stopping military support, agreeing to “united Ukraine”, and arm-twisting for those commanders of the army of Novorossia who will start to ask “unpleasant questions). The main difficulty of the negotiators is that the standard reaction of the militia to the proposal of “united pro-Russian Ukraine” is “Which fucking Ukraine?!” Only the political technologists in Moscow and Surkov’s servants, who broadcast this BS into the masses, may fight for the “united Ukraine” on the Russian side. The militia fights for other things.

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Some still cannot understand that the war of the junta against Novorossia is just one dimension of the conflict. Without resolving the tensions between the USA and the Russian Federation there won’t be a full-fledged peace there. So, the Minsk negotiations and the obscene piece of paper that was signed there is just another attempt to jump out of the same unpleasant dilemma. One of these decisions will have to be made in the end.

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Actually, this is why I am not in a hurry to join the crowd with the cries of “Novorossia was dumped” or to deliver mantras about “Putin’s Clever Plan”. The final choice is yet to be made. The current attempts to avoid this choice only make the conditions for making it worse.

Novorossia in one shape or another will definitely happen. In the nearest weeks it will be decided what exactly will it be, once the final choice of Russia in the Ukrainian question becomes clear.

Original article: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1773476.html (in Russian)

SELECT COMMENTS

CAPITALIST RUSSIA CANNOT WIN
Marcus N

The Big Lie machinery of the American state never stops, amplified by the complicit Western European media

An east-Ukrainian rebel inspects a gun at a destroyed war memorial at Savur-Mohyla, a hill east of the city of Donetsk, August 28, 2014. (Reuters / Maxim Shemetov)  / Click to enlarge. 

[T]he US President says it is now “provable” that “Russian combat forces and tanks” moved into Ukraine. But Kremlin says Obama’s words are in conflict with the State Department that said it has no proof of Russian troops in the area.

A DISPATCH FROM RT.COM

A statement from the Russian president’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov came in response to Barack Obama’s address to the Baltic States’ leader. Speaking ahead of NATO summit, President Obama said that the US has no doubt that Russian troops are involved in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

What we have in Ukraine is not a Russian invasion but the participation of brave Russian volunteers interested in protecting their brothers and cousins and stopping the advance of US-sponsored fascism. Deal with that.

“The Russian forces that have now moved into Ukraine aren’t on a ‘humanitarian’ or ‘peacekeeping mission.’ They are Russian combat forces with Russian weapons in Russian tanks. There are Russian warheads with Russian weapons and Russian tanks. Now, these are the facts. They are provable. They’re not subject to dispute,” Obama said at a press-conference in Tallinn.

However, this information comes into conflict with the recent statement of the US State Department, Peskov said.

“We have repeatedly said there are no Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine. While Obama says there can be no doubts about that, US Department of State officials say simultaneously with their president that the United States has no proof of Russian military presence in Ukraine. This situation underscores their reluctance to use facts,” the Russian president’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov told the Russian News Service radio station.

“It’s an obsession with attributing a negative role in the development of the Ukrainian crisis to Russia, and we strongly object to this,” Kremlin’s spokesman added.

ridiculed by Russia’s Defense Ministry, while an alliance of seven former US intelligence officers – the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) – said the evidence produced by NATO from the Ukrainian-Russian border was on a par with the “same dubious, politically ‘fixed’ kind used 12 years ago to ‘justify’ the US-led attack on Iraq.”

‘Many of our comrades can’t look quietly’

On Wednesday, Russian veterans have called to end speculations around those Russian men who voluntarily joined east-Ukrainian rebels in the fight against Kiev.

“These are not adventurers, not criminals, not mercenaries, these are Russian people, who have it already laid down in their genes: to help our friendly nations in a difficult situation. We understand that this internal conflict or civil war in Ukraine is not Russia’s business. But this way Russia [through volunteers] has a right to help,” said Colonel-General Valery Vostrotin, the chairman of the Council of the Moscow Department “Battle Brotherhood”.

Shevchuk (Still from RT video)

A retired Russian officer Vladimir Melnik is one of those men. He is now undergoing treatment in Moscow after being injured in a leg in Ukraine.

He does not call himself a hero. For him, born and raised in the Donetsk region, when it still was part of the USSR, supporting rebels in his native land is a duty. His relatives and friends still live there. Melnik says he could not leave them in a time of trouble.

“If somebody intrudes into you house, starts killing your brothers, your sisters, raping your women, killing your children and rob elders —how would you react to this? I understand that this is, primarily, a spiritual struggle; looking at what is happening in the world today, I would not like to stand and watch as our Orthodox people are being killed in their own homes,” he says.

A retired Russian officer Vladimir Melnik (Still from RT video)

Melnik says there are many volunteers – former military personnel like him – fighting along with self-defense forces in the south-east of Ukraine.

“There are many of us and more people were ready to come. For now, Thank God, we are coping [with the situation] with the tools we have,” Melnik says.

When asked if he was paid or offered anything for coming to Ukraine, he says: “If I came to my father and said: Dad, I’m here to protect you from fascists for money, he would not understand me, neither would others. I wouldn’t have any respect for myself as well.”

Melnik says it was tough for eastern Ukrainian men “to leave their mines” and take arms, but now, thanks to the experience which people with military background shared, they “understand more.”

Asked about military equipment, Melnik confesses that everything rebels have is old, “from the Soviet time”, but this is enough to hold the fort.

“It is not difficult to find arms in Ukraine,” he says. “There are many ammunition depots left after the Soviet Union. It is old, from Soviet times. Yes, guys had to repair some of it or replace some of the details, but it works.”

Members of Russian veterans organizations fighting in Ukraine.  We should all salute them.  (Image from oficery.ru)

OSCE: No armed men crossing Ukraine border

OSCE’s observer mission has indicated in its latest report that it has not witnessed any Russian troops or tanks crossing the border into Ukraine.

What it did record, however, was an increased presence of unmanned aerial vehicles and young men and women crossing from Russia into Ukraine unarmed.

There has been “increased military activity principally of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the vicinity of the Border Crossing Points,” OSCE said in the weekly update from August 28 to September 3.

“Throughout the week, the OTs [Observer Teams] noticed a net increase of young people (both men and women) wearing military-style dress crossing the border in both directions but did not observe any weapons among these groups.”

OSCE noted that supporters of self-defense forces said they are not allowed to cross the border with weapons. But once they cross into Ukraine, weapons can be obtained from self-defense forces.

The observer mission added that situation in Lugansk remains “dire.” OSCE cites accounts of “severe destruction caused by artillery fire which resulted in the interruption of water, gas and electricity supplies, the latter apparently unavailable for more than five weeks in some areas including Lugansk city itself.”

ON THE NEXT PAGE

(Excerpt)
Dolores Ibárruri, La Pasionaria
Barcelona, November 1, 1938 

“YIt is very difficult to say a few words in farewell to the heroes of the International Brigades, because of what they are and what they represent. A feeling of sorrow, an infinite grief catches our throat – sorrow for those who are going away, for the soldiers of the highest ideal of human redemption, exiles from their countries, persecuted by the tyrants of all peoples – grief for  those who will stay here forever mingled with the Spanish soil, in the very depth of our heart, hallowed by our feeling of eternal gratitude.

From all peoples, from all races, you came to us like brothers, like sons of immortal Spain; and in the hardest days of the war, when the capital of the Spanish Republic was threatened, it was you, gallant comrades of the International Brigades, who helped save the city with your fighting enthusiasm, your heroism and your spirit of sacrifice. – And Jarama and Guadalajara, Brunete and Belchite, Levante and the Ebro, in immortal verses sing of the courage, the sacrifice, the daring, the discipline of the men of the International Brigades. 

For the first time in the history of the peoples’ struggles, there was the spectacle, breath­taking in its grandeur, of the formation of International Brigades to help save a threatened country’s freedom and independence – the freedom and independence of our Spanish land. 

Communists, Socialists, Anarchists, Republicans – men of different colors, differing ideology, antagonistic religions — yet all profoundly loving liberty and justice, they came and offered themselves to us unconditionally. 

They gave us everything — their youth or their maturity; their science or their experience; their blood and their lives; their hopes and aspirations — and they asked us for nothing. But yes, it must be said, they did want a post in battle, they aspired to the honor of dying for us.

Banners of Spain! Salute these many heroes! Be lowered to honor so many martyrs!

Mothers! Women! When the years pass by and the wounds of war are stanched; when the memory of the sad and bloody days dissipates in a present of liberty, of peace and of well­being; when the rancors have died out and pride in a free country is felt equally by all Spaniards, speak to your children. Tell them of these men of the International Brigades.

Recount for them how, coming over seas and mountains, crossing frontiers bristling with bayonets, sought by raving dogs thirsting to tear their flesh, these men reached our country as crusaders for freedom, to fight and die for Spain’s liberty and independence threatened by German and Italian fascism. They gave up everything — their loves, their countries, home and fortune, fathers, mothers, wives, brothers, sisters and children — and they came and said to us: “We are here. Your cause, Spain’s cause, is ours. It is the cause of all advanced and progressive mankind.”

Today many are departing. Thousands remain, shrouded in Spanish earth, profoundly remembered by all Spaniards. Comrades of the International Brigades: Political reasons, reasons of state, the welfare of that very cause for which you offered your blood with boundless generosity, are sending you back, some to your own countries and others to forced exile. You can go proudly. You are history. You are legend. You are the heroic example of democracy’s solidarity and universality in the face of the vile and accommodating spirit of those who interpret democratic principles with their eyes on hoards of wealth or corporate shares which they want to safeguard from all risk.

We shall not forget you; and, when the olive tree of peace is in flower, entwined with the victory laurels of the Republic of Spain — return! 

​‘Malaysian airplane tragedy is a wakeup call to the Ukrainian govt to stop what it is doing’

Neil Clark is a journalist, writer and broadcaster. His award winning blog can be found at www.neilclark66.blogspot.com. Follow him on Twitter

Published time: July 18, 2014 11:01

An armed pro-Russian separatist stands at a site of a Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 plane crash in the settlement of Grabovo in the Donetsk region, July 17, 2014 (Reuters / Maxim Zmeyev)

[W]hat is happening in the east is a humanitarian catastrophe, with cities under siege, civilians killed, bombing of innocent people, and now on the top of that we have this terrible tragedy with 300 losing their lives, journalist Neil Clark told RT.

RT: Do you think there is any connection between this tragedy and the conflict in eastern Ukraine?

Neil Clark: It’s very hard to say, isn’t it? It is still early days but there seems to be a remarkable coincidence that this plane just went down for technical reason in this region which faced fighting in the last few weeks. I think it is very wrong for President Poroshenko, the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people to be trying to blame other people for this, to blame the so-called rebels, because there is no evidence of this. We already heard how the so-called separatists in the east don’t have the means to shoot this plane down, they don’t have the surface-to-air missiles by which it was shot down, and it was shot down. So it is very irresponsible at this moment of time when almost 300 people lost their lives for the Ukrainian authorities to be trying to make political capital of this and shift the blame to other people. I think it’s very wrong.

RT: State Department spokesperson was very careful when commenting on the situation, saying “we have seen the reports everyone else have seen and that’s it”. Is it surprising that she avoided any mention of the military operation in Ukraine?

NC: It is quite remarkable isn’t it? Because it is a war zone and if it is proved that this plane was shot down then of course it is all to do with the war in Ukraine at the moment. It is a war zone; we have seen almost 500 civilians killed there by the Ukrainian authorities. The overall responsibility must lie with those who have created this war in Ukraine but now it’s not really the time to be accusing people of shooting down this plane. We are going to stay calm, we are going to stay very forensic, and we are going to wait till the evidence is produced. It has been shot down and clearly flying at that kind of altitude there would have to be some surface-to-air missiles or it has been shot down by another plane, and of course separatists won’t be able to do this. I think there is a strong likelihood that the Ukrainian authorities did this, but we can’t say it at the moment till we get more people on the ground to inspect it and we have forensic experts in there. So it’s a time to stay calm and certainly this is not what the Ukrainian authorities have been doing. Unfortunately, people are going to use this tragedy to try to make particular points and to blame people in the east and to blame Russia.

A man walks, on July 17, 2014, amongst the wreckages of the malaysian airliner carrying 298 people from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur after it crashed, near the town of Shaktarsk, in rebel-held east Ukraine (AFP Photo / Alexander Khudoteply)

RT: If this plane was shot down, what could be the implications for whoever is responsible?

NC: My fear is that if the plane was shot down by the Ukrainian authorities which seems likely, bearing in mind the fact that it was flying so high and only surface-to-air missiles could have done that, and we know that Ukrainian authorities have possessed those missiles. If it was done by the Ukrainian authorities then what I fear is that there will be some kind of cover up that we won’t be allowed to know the truth of this because it will be huge blow to the Ukrainian government, there will be an absolutely outcry about it. The sort of PR war would be lost by them. So I fear that we may not learn the truth, as it was the case with the earlier incident a few years ago when the Ukrainian authorities did shoot a plane over the Black sea. We only learned later on that it was them, they denied it at the time. I think there is a big political effect behind this. The most important thing is somehow we get to the truth. We may actually not get to the truth because of course if they find that the plane was shot down, everybody is going to deny it and it is going to be very hard to prove it.

RT: We’re already hearing claims and counter-claims over who’s to blame. How quickly will we know the truth?

NC: It depends. If it was the Ukrainian authorities who shot down this plane it is going to be very politically bad for them for the truth to come out, so I would fear a cover up. It is very important that a truly international unbiased team of people goes there and launch a full investigation. It is going to be impartial people, we can’t just rely on Ukrainian government officials to come in and make allegations, and it has got to be done by independent people. 300 people have lost their lives; it’s an important tragedy, just think of the family members. For them and for everybody else we have to get to the truth of this and we mustn’t play politics on this issue. This plane, if it was shot down, we need to find who did it.

RT: What does this tragedy mean for Kiev authorities and the whole world?

NC: This is a wakeup call to the Ukrainian government to stop what it is doing. The hostilities against people in the east Ukraine must stop altogether now. Nearly 500 people have been killed by the Ukrainian government in recent weeks. When Colonel Gaddafi’s forces killed around 200 people in 2011 the US used it as a pretext for war against Libya. It was so-called humanitarian intervention. What is happening in the east is a humanitarian catastrophe, we have cities under siege, we have civilians killed, we have shelling, bombing of innocent people, and now on the top of that we have this terrible tragedy with 300 losing their lives. If the plane was shot down we can say for sure that this would not have happened had it not been for the Ukrainian government deciding to use military force trying to subjugate opposition to it. This was the wrong road; I say it all the time. And let’s hope now that this tragedy brings people to their senses and the Ukrainian government closes off its military campaign.

RT: Malaysian Airlines is in the headlines for the second time this year. If it turns out that this was a straight-forward accident – would this put the company’s future in jeopardy?

NC: I wouldn’t travel on Malaysian airways, would you after this? To lose 2 planes in 6 months is quite astonishing, quite incredible. Of course we still don’t know what happened to the earlier plane, people are talking about cover ups there. So I think it’s a very bad news for Malaysian airways, of course there are still questions to answer like why this plane was flying over that area today, whether it was on the correct flight path. It was flying over a war zone where missiles have been fired. It’s a war zone, so why it was flying over there? That’s just another question we have got to find out answers to really.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.